Author: Sanjoy Narayan

Patience Not Speed is Needed on the Path to a Uniform Civil Code

By Sanjoy Narayan

It is likely that a Uniform Civil Code (UCC) Bill will be introduced in India’s Parliament when it convenes for its Monsoon session, which begins on July 20. The Uniform Civil Code (UCC) is a proposal in India to formulate and implement personal laws of citizens which apply to all citizens equally regardless of their religion, gender and sexual orientation. The UCC covers areas like marriage, divorce, inheritance, adoption and succession of the property. Article 44 of the Indian Constitution mentions the UCC as a directive principle of state policy. The objective is to promote gender justice and equality.

In late June, Prime Minister Narendra Modi mentioned the intention of adopting the UCC. According to him, it was not sustainable for the country to have separate sets of laws for different sections of the Indian community. He stressed the need for having a single set of laws for the entire country. However, the proposal has met with apprehension, opposition and dissent from various sections of Indians, particularly the minority Muslims who account for 15% of India’s population, and from Modi and his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) political rivals. They argue that the UCC would impinge upon many Indians’ religious and personal freedom and rights.

The controversy around the UCC stems from the fact that India is a diverse country with different religious communities having their own personal laws based on their scriptures. Some groups oppose the UCC as they fear it would infringe on their religious freedom and identity, while others support it as they see it as a way to ensure uniformity and secularism in the country. 

Muslims in India are governed by the Muslim Personal Law (Shariat) Application Act, 1937. This law deals with marriage, succession, inheritance and charities among Muslims. In many respects, such as womens’ rights, and divorce procedures, the provision of the Shariat differs widely from the civil laws that apply to non-Muslims, such as the majority community of Hindus who account for nearly 80% of the Indian population. The rights of women under Shariat are different, and construed by many as being restrictive and discriminatory. 

The UCC is a complex and sensitive issue that is also divisive. In a country as diverse in terms of religion, language, and culture as India, the UCC requires debate and involves a fine balance between India’s constitutional values of secularism, plurality, equality, and justice. 

The idea of implementing the UCC as India approaches the next parliamentary elections, scheduled for 2024, is seen as the Modi regime’s attempt to strengthen its base among the majority Hindu voters. The BJP in its election manifestos–at the national level in the past, and for recent state elections–has promised implementation of the UCC. 

The BJP is aligned with right-wing politics, and its policies adhere to what is called Hindutva, interpreted as a Hindu nationalist ideology. The BJP has close ideological and organizational links to the Rashtiruíya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), which advocates a “Hindu Nation” and is opposed to Muslims and Christians. Hence, minority communities in India fear that a law that overrides those based on religious scriptures may be aimed at obliterating their practices and heritage.

On the flipside of that argument is the fact that some personal laws followed in India, say, among Muslims, can be interpreted to be at odds with India’s constitutional values and objectives of equality and freedom, particularly on the basis of gender.

While many Muslims feel that some policies adopted by the current regime, which has been in power since 2014, have been discriminatory (the Citizenship Amendment Act, the National Registrar of Citizens in Assam, and, the construction of a Hindu temple in Ayodhya, to cite a few), many provisions of the Shariat are viewed by many Indians, including those professing secularism and pluralism, as unrealistic and out of sync with modern society. 

Mr Modi is right when he says separate laws to govern different communities based on their religious beliefs is unsustainable but implementing a UCC should be carefully undertaken. Religion is a sensitive issue in India and in recent years it has been the cause of serious divisiveness. It has led to the rise of hardline majoritarian spirits and, consequently, to apprehension and insecurity among India’s minorities. The 15% of India that is composed of Muslims accounts for 210 million people, a number much bigger than the population of many countries in the world. 

That does not mean that all the provisions of Muslim personal law should be preserved–many of them are regressive and highly discriminatory. But when millions adhere to them, any move to change the laws that govern the system must be fraught with caution. Patience and public debate is needed on the path to a Uniform Civil Code.

Barbarism raises its head in India… yet again

A shocking video surfaced recently showing a man in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh urinating on a tribal worker. The urinating man, identified as Pravesh Shukla, was  charged under the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act, a law that is aimed at protecting India’s historically oppressed communities. The authorities also demolished Shukla’s home, which was believed to be an illegal construction.

Later, the chief minister of the state, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who belongs to the BJP, was shown in another video of washing the feet of the tribal man and then sitting down for lunch with him, ostensibly as a symbol of equality and non-discrimination.

The fact is that the caste system in India, decades after the Constitution was adopted and whose objectives as its preamble says, are to secure justice, liberty, equality to all citizens and promote fraternity to maintain unity and integrity of the nation, is still alive.

Although India has sought to dismantle caste-based discrimination through affirmative actions such as reservations in education and jobs and laws such as the prevention of atrocities Act mentioned before, the caste system still raises its ugly head and people from the so-called “lower castes and tribes” continue to face exploitation, persecution, and worse. People belonging to these castes were considered as members of the lowest class in the traditional Hindu social hierarchy and were believed to defile by contact with a member of a higher caste. In fact, they were known as “untouchables”, a term that is now considered offensive. 

In the late 1880s, the Marathi word ‘Dalit’ was used by Mahatma Jyotirao Phule, a social activist and anti-caste reformer, for the outcasts and “untouchables” who were oppressed and broken in the Hindu society. Dalit in classical Sanskrit, this means “divided, split, broken, scattered”.

Despite the reforms, in Indian society the caste system lives on–no matter which economic strata you consider. Among the poor and dispossessed as well as the well-heeled and educated, the caste system is still in practice. When it comes to conventional norms, for example in arranged marriages, which account for the majority of Indian matrimonial alliances, it is common practice to insist on caste matches. And instances of discrimination on the basis of caste when it comes to employment or simple things such as renting a home are rife. The caste system is a blight that refuses to die down in India.

India condemns pro-Khalistan protests

On Saturday, Indian diplomats and Indian embassies and consulates in Canada, the US, the UK, and Australia, were preparing for a number of rallies dubbed as “Kill India” protests by Sikh separatists who have been demanding a separate Khalistan state in Punjab and want to raise funds for the terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, who was killed recently. 

Nijjar, born in Bhar Singh Pura in the Phillaur subdivision of Jalandhar in Punjab, migrated to Canada in 1997 after the quelling of Sikh militancy in Punjab. He later became the head of a Gurdwara there. In 2020 he was designated as a terrorist under India law. Last month Nijjar was killed by unidentified assailants in Surrey, Vancouver where the Gurdwara is located. 

Sympathizers of the Khalistani movement believe Nijjar, 45, was killed because of his political beliefs. The protests are being organized against his killing and against the Indian government. Several Sikh radicals have called the Indian diplomatic establishments in Canada “war zones”. 

Canada has around 770,000 people, or 2.1% of the population, who are Sikhs, according to the country’s latest census. A small but influential number of these Sikhs support the idea of Khalistan.

The Indian government has condemned the protests and urged the governments of Canada and other countries where they are being organized to crack down on the activities.

When the virtual becomes reality

PUBG is a virtual online player versus player shooter game in which up to 100 players fight in a sort of deathmatch where the players fight to keep alive. It is an unlikely arena for cross-border romance but that is what happened recently. Seema Ghulam Haider from Pakistan and Sachin Singh from India met while playing PUBG a few years ago. The connection turned into romance and Haider, a mother of four, soon illegally entered India and began living with Singh in Greater Noida, Uttar Pradesh.

Both Singh, 25, and Haider, 30, were arrested by the Indian authorities (Haider for illegally crossing over; and Singh for letting her stay with him). Both have professed their love for each other and have appealed to the Indian government to set them free to live together. Will the Indian authorities be sympathetic to them?

Dutch government falls

Last Friday, the Dutch government fell after failing to reach a deal on immigration policy. The four-party coalition led by Prime Minister Mark Rutte collapsed as two junior parties refused to support his proposals to limit the entrance of children of war refugees and to delay family reunification. Rutte said the coalition had lost its political foundation and tendered his resignation to the king. The move triggered new elections later that year.

Rutte’s government was formed just 18 months ago. His People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy has been under pressure with right-leaning factions within it pressuring him to limit the number of asylum seekers arriving in the Netherlands. 

In many European nations, immigration has become a big political issue as more right-leaning parties gain prominence in governments.

In Sweden, Freedom of Expression Cannot be Unfettered

By Sanjoy Narayan

In Sweden, the degree of freedom of speech and expression that individuals enjoy is among the highest in the world. In that northern European 2country, freedom of expression is protected by the Constitution, and it is one of the foundations of the Swedish state. Freedom of expression, freedom of information, freedom to demonstrate and freedom of assembly are therefore central rights in Swedish democracy. The Fundamental Law on Freedom of Expression was adopted in 1991 and is Sweden’s youngest fundamental law. 

Alebit laudable in theory, Sweden’s law on freedom of expression was put to the test recently when the authorities allowed an Iraqi national residing in the country to burn a copy of the Koran in front of a mosque in Stockholm. According to news reports, the 39-year-old Iraqi national wrapped the Koran in bacon, which is made of pork, a meat considered “haram” or forbidden by Islam, before burning it.

The act has created a furore in several countries, including several Middle Eastern nations and in Turkey, which is already embroiled in a confrontation with Sweden and is opposed to the latter joining NATO on the grounds that Sweden offers refuge to several Kurds that Turkey believes are terrorists opposed to its government. The burning of the Koran has, predictably, exacerbated the issue and is likely to strengthen Turkey’s opposition to Sweden’s intent on joining NATO. 

Freedom of expression is a highly valuable right for individuals and nations such as Sweden must be lauded for the rights that their residents enjoy but can such rights be limitless? No. If an individual or a group of individual exercises the right to free expression, they must be subject to a limit to ensure that in exercising their rights they do not harm or violate the rights, sentiments, and beliefs of others. The act of desecration of Islam’s holy book has insulted millions of Muslims the world over. And that is certainly not acceptable.  

While Turkey, which is a member of NATO, has said that it would not lend its support to Sweden’s bid to join NATO (one NATO member can veto the application of any country that applies for membership of the intergovernmental organisation), several other countries have condemned the permission given to the Iraqi individual to burn the Koran as being despicable and an insult to followers of the Islamic faith. In Baghdad, the capital of Iraq, protestors stormed the compound of Swedish embassy in a reaction to the act. The protests around the world could get stronger and more widespread. 

Sweden, which has had a history of liberal-leaning governments, last year created history by electing a right-wing coalition with pronounced nationalistic ideology to power. Many connect the permission given by the authorities to the Iraqi national who burnt the Koran with the policies of the regime now ruling Sweden. 

But be that as it may, allowing the act that has outraged large parts of the world, particularly countries with Muslim majority, is condemnable and the least that Sweden can do is to apologise and act against the individual involved in the act. In Sweden or anywhere in the world, the right to freedom of expression cannot be unfettered. 

The Emergence of War-bloggers in Russia’s War in Ukraine 

When the Gulf War broke out in 1990, CNN, then a 10-year-old, still fledgeling 24-hour news channel, took the lead in its coverage of the conflict. That war, which began with Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait followed by retaliation by a 39-country coalition led primarily by the US, had several consequences that changed the geopolitics of the Middle East and the ripple effects of that conflict continue. But one indirect impact of the war was the rise of CNN as a global news organisation and a go-to brand for credible information.  

In the ongoing Russian offensive against Ukraine, which began in the second half of February last year, a different kind of news phenomenon has been taking shape. Reports and news of the war between the two nations have been marked by extreme biases. The Russian news sources have predictably glossed over their country’s setbacks and war-related losses, including human casualties, and exaggerated claims of victories, captured territories and losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces. Similarly, the Ukrainian side has underplayed its losses and overplayed its victories.  

In the melee, however, there has emerged a new, fragmented class of news sources. These are the Russian war bloggers. Many of these individuals are independent, reporting from the frontlines, selling their stories and videos to established Russian and other international media platforms. A few of them are Kremlin-backed journalists who toe the government line but many others, while supporting the Russian offensive and justifying the war also seem to be “fairer” in their reportage: unlike official Russian media, they also report on Russia’s actual setbacks and losses in the war.  

Interestingly, even as speculation is rife about the recent attempted “coup” against Kremlin by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, a private military corporation that has been active in the war, Russian war bloggers, despite their biases, have often been the source of more information than is otherwise available from official media sources on either side of the conflict. 

Is this the kind of indie war reporting that could set the foundation for the future of news sources, particularly from war-torn zones? 

Another Good Reason to Junk Your Diet Sodas 

The World Health Organisation’s cancer research unit is set to classify aspartame, a calorie-free artificial sweetener that is used in many soft drinks as carcinogenic. Notably, Coca-Cola, the beverages giant, uses aspartame in many of its drinks such as diet soda to reduce sugar and calories 

The controversy over aspartame safety is not new. It originated in perceived irregularities in the aspartame approval process during the 1970s and early 1980s, including allegations of a revolving door relationship between regulators and industry and claims that aspartame producer G.D. Searle had withheld and falsified safety data.  

Now, with the artificial sweetener aspartame set to be declared a possible carcinogen this month by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, Coke and other manufacturers that use aspartame in some of their products will be in a spot.  

China Hardens its Foreign Policy 

In a move widely seen as a reaction to various sanctions and restrictions imposed by the <Us against China, beginning July, China will follow a new international policy that grants it the authority to impose “countermeasures” against perceived threats. The law, set to take effect on July 1, reflects Beijing’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its position amid strained relationships with Western countries. The law is aimed at countering Western powers and extends President Xi Jinping’s combative stance on asserting Beijing on the world stage. The law threatens to punish entities that act in ways “detrimental” to China’s interests. 

The new law is seen as China’s counter to the US blacklisting it recently for its support and participation in the Ukraine war and its alleged attempts at surveillance. Most recently, after the so-called failed coup by Prigozhin in Russia, President Xi quite categorically reasserted his country’s support of Russia and its President Vladimir Putin.  

China has been articulating its world view and of creating a new order. Its alignment and strong backing of Russia and the new foreign policy is likely to bolster its attempt to counter the West. All eyes on China now.

Paris is Burning

A 17-year-old boy Nahel Merzouk was killed in France by the police. Nahel was shot dead for driving off during a police check. The killing has sparked violent protests across various cities in France. Thousands of people have gathered in various protests with the slogans of ‘Justice for Nahel’. French suburbs have been rocked by riots that have tapped into a deep-seated resentment toward the police. More than a thousand people have been arrested after thousands of fires, and several instances of looting and violence have rocked several cities, including Paris. Many residents understand the anger, but not the violence.

Behind the Bravado, India May be Worrying About the State of its Democracy

By Sanjoy Narayan

India worrying about the its democracy

Last week after watching the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s address to the US Congress for a rare second time, an Indian friend based in the US could not stop gushing about how clever and good the speech was. And how impressed the US senators and representatives were by what he said. I caught a video recording of Modi’s speech and was suitably impressed too. His speech, in English, was holistic—it described India’s achievements; it highlighted his government’s achievements by underscoring the massive numbers of people that have benefited from various policies and schemes—numbers, which, in a country with a population of 1.4 billion, can in some instances rival the entire population of South America, North America, or Europe. 

Modi received standing ovations on multiple occasions, particularly when he spoke about the strong ties between India and the US, the world’s largest and oldest democracies, respectively. But away from the arc lights in the House; or in Modi’s meetings with President Joe Biden; or the interactions he has had with the euphoric diaspora of Indians, including top executives such as the CEOs of Google and Microsoft, India’s democracy has come under scrutiny. 

On this state visit of his, there have been protests about what is seen as India’s backsliding on democratic values, on the treatment of minority communities, and on freedom of speech and the media. Many Congressmen, particularly those subscribing to liberal mores, stayed away from Modi’s address to the House. Both Modi and Biden, however, skirted questions at a press interaction (according to media reports, it was limited to two questions!) where Modi declared that there was not discrimination in India.  

Both India and the US need each other and in the context of the new world order that is emerging with the role of China and its alignment with Russia those needs are fast approaching a degree of urgency. It is not hard to see why the US administration would prefer to gloss over the democracy and discrimination issues in its dialogue with India. Yet India cannot ignore the simmering concern about how the current regime is perceived by the world—a not-so-pretty picture that is portrayed persistently in the Western media. 

Stories and reports, usually in the foreign media, have consistently described growing insecurity among India’s minority communities, including Muslims; and an increasing atmosphere of religious and communal intolerance. India has slipped in successive surveys such as the Global Democracy Index, prepared by the Economist Intelligence Unit, on which it is classified as a flawed democracy, and its ranking on the indices of press freedom have slid to abysmally low levels.  

The fact is that even as there is limited public outcry on these issues within India (remember, the Indian media have limited freedom), the Indian government is concerned by these. According to UK’s Guardian newspaper, the Indian government has been holding confidential meetings of its key ministries to address these worrying issues. According to the Guardian report, the newspaper has seen minutes of at least four meetings of Indian officials that have focused on how to raise India’s rankings on various indices that measure democratic values and rankings as well as other parameters of freedom. 

In public, India may brush off observations about the nature of its democracy (India’s foreign minister has remarked that the country is in no need of “sermons”); and its quite subservient media may choose to all but ignore it, but the Modi regime is worried about the consistent reports and views about the state of its democracy. And that could be a good thing for India. 

Manipur hurtles towards a civil war 

For two months, Manipur, the northeastern Indian state, has been burning. After violence erupted between two of its prominent tribes—the majority Hindu-dominated Meitei and the Christian hill tribe of Kukis, the situation is fast moving towards a civil war-like situation.  

Ethnic violence has already led to more than 100 deaths and several hundred injured. As many as 60,000 people have been displaced from their homes and have had to take refuge in 350 camps. Mobs have looted weapons from police armouries and although the government has deployed 40,000 troops—army soldiers, police, and security forces—the violence continues. The Union home minister Amit Shah visited Manipur some time ago and promised that things would be resolved but that has not helped. 

The level of mistrust between the warring communities has sharpened, with both accusing security forces of being partisan. More than 200 churches and 17 temples have been destroyed or damaged by mobs. Homes of local ministers and legislators have been attacked and set on fire. 

India’s eight north-east states have a population of 45 million spread among more than 400 communities and ethnic groups. Violence and lashes have been a common feature of the regions and despite many peace talks, the schisms between different tribes and communities continue. Manipur borders Myanmar. The state has 33 tribes that are hugely diversified. There are an estimated number of 40 insurgent groups in the state and the Meitei, Naga, and Kukis have been at war with each other for a long time.  

Sometimes the conflict is between the ethnic groups. For instance, the trigger for the current conflict is about whether the Meitei should have the status of a scheduled tribe as the Kukis do. At other times the conflicts have been between insurgents and Indian security forces. For the Indian government, resolving the northeastern issues, particularly the ongoing violence in Manipur, should be of high priority before things get even worse. 

Can India’s Opposition take on Modi? 

Last week, at a conclave initiated by Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, 15 Indian opposition parties met to forge out an alliance for next year’s parliamentary elections. The idea, mooted by Kumar, involves burying ideological and political differences and fielding one candidate backed by all the opposition parties to take on the candidate from Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in each of India’s parliamentary constituencies. Last week’s meeting was preliminary and mostly symbolic. The parties will meet again in July.  

But will such a united front work? India’s experience with coialitions and fronts such as the one proposed by Kumar has usually been mixed. In most cases they end in messy breakups, sometimes quite acrimoniously too because of conflicting ambitions of leaders of different parties and squabbles over things such as who gets what ministry and official position.  

Also, it will be interesting to see whether the Congress, once India’s most powerful national party but one that is now reduced to a shadow of its former self, will agree to play second or even third fiddle in a united front. The BJP, on its part, is watching the attempts at a united opposition to its regime with interest…. and amusement. The party’s minister and leader, Smriti Irani, thanked the opposition, particularly the Congress, for conceding that it could not take on Modi by itself.  

The tragedy of the Titan 

The Titan submersible,  a crewed submersible operated by OceanGate, an American tourism company, is believed to have imploded while on a dive several hundred meters below the sea level, killing all five crew members. The Titan was the only crewed submersible in the world that could take five people as deep as 4,000 meters (more than 13,100 feet) below the surface of the ocean. The submersible was part of a tourist expedition to observe the wreck of Titanic. 

On June 18th, the Titan submersible imploded during its descent in the North Atlantic Ocean, about 400 nautical miles off the coast of Newfoundland, Canada. The submersible was carrying five people and was part of a tourist expedition to observe the wreck of Titanic. Experts say that the Titan submersible suffered a catastrophic implosion that killed its pilot and four passengers instantly amid the intense water pressure in the deep North Atlantic. 

 The Titan submersible is about 9 feet high, 8 feet wide, 22 feet long and weighs 25,000 pounds. It left from St. John’s, Newfoundland on June 16th and lost contact with the ship that was monitoring it about an hour and 45 minutes later. The five people killed were Five people were killed in the **Titanic submersible** when it imploded. They were: British billionaire and explorer Hamish Harding, 58; Pakistani-born industrialist Shahzada Dawood, 48, and his son, Suleman, 19; French oceanographer and Titanic expert Paul-Henri Nageolet, 77; and the chief executive of OceanGate, Stockton Rush, 61. 

Fracas over Adipurush 

In India, controversies over films, particularly anything to do with history, Hinduism or mythology, are common. Adipurush, a Ramayana-inspired film starring Prabhas, Kriti Sanon and Saif Ali Khan, has led to another. The teaser of the film, released on October 2, 2022, faced backlash from various groups for the portrayal of Lord Ram, Lakshman and Ravana. The Vishva Hindu Parishad, some BJP members, the chief priest of Ayodhya’s Ram Temple and Madhya Pradesh’s Home Minister raised objections and demanded a ban on the film. They claimed that the film ridiculed Hindu society and mocked Hinduism.  

Last Friday, a huge protest was held against Om Raut’s Adipurush by advocates at a Police Station in New Agra. They filed a complaint opposing the movie which has “hurt the religious sentiments of the Hindu society”. 

The movie has also stirred controversy over Sita’s birthplace. Kathmandu has banned the screening of all Indian movies after objecting to dialogue in ‘Adipurush, which claims ‘Sita is the daughter of India. According to the mayor of Kathmandu, the goddess was born in Janakpur, located in modern-day Nepal. Another film; another controversy. 

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Akhand Bharat Mural

‘Akhand Bharat’ Mural Should Be in a Museum Not in Parliament

By Sanjoy Narayan

A mural installed at the newly inaugurated Parliament building in India has created ripples among some of India’s neighbours, including Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh, which could lead to an avoidable diplomatic frisson in the region. The mural depicts India as a unified region that encompasses areas that are now independent sovereign states into one “undivided” India or Akhand Bharat. The mural is a historical depiction of the region that was once believed to be ruled by Emperor Ashoka from circa 268 to 232 BCE, or nearly 2300 years ago. Then, Ashoka, the third Mauryan emperor, is said to have reigned over a region that included modern-day India and areas that are now Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka.

The Hindu right-wing names that “so-called” undivided India, Akhand Bharat, and over the years, particularly before Independence in 1947, many ideologues were of the opinion that a region resembling the map depicted on that mural should be the rightful territory of India.

The installation of the mural has led to controversy. First, various voices from the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have sought to resurrect the concept of Akhand Bharat as a cherished goal for India in what could appear to be an imperialistic aspiration. Second, India’s neighbours such as Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh, have criticised the depiction of the mural and its installation in the highest legislature of the country. Unsurprisingly, they do not want to be showcased as being part of a “unified India”.

The map shown in the mural is ancient and like all historical artifacts it is of huge significance and a part of India’s heritage. But does it belong in Parliament? It is the Constitution of India that provides for a bicameral Parliament, which in turn is the highest legislature of the country and one that is meant to uphold the principles of the Constitution. Depicting a bygone era’s map that purportedly shows an empire that is no longer relevant (except for its historical value) in the building housing India’s highest legislature can seem like a brazen act of bullying India’s weaker neighbours, which are all relatively small in comparison.

Instead, if that Akhand Bharat map, replete with all its historical significance, was ensconced in a museum, it is likely that India’s neighbouring countries, now depicted as part of a wishful dream in a mural in Parliament, would not have bothered much. It’s ancient history. It belongs to a museum.

Indians’ trust in media is declining as they consume less news

More bad news for Indian media. Just 38% of Indians trust the news that is offered by TV, print, online, and social media platforms. That means more than 60% of Indians do not trust the news that they are exposed to. What is more, Indians’ interest in news is falling and so are the revenues at the prominent media outlets. Worse, India’s standing in the global rankings of press freedom and journalists’ freedom continues to decline.

According to the annual Digital News Report for 2023 by the Reuters Institute for Study of Journalism (RISJ), headquartered at Oxford University, “India slipped to its worst position on record in the Press Freedom Index this year (161 out of 180 countries), published by Reporters Without Borders (RSF).”

The Reuters report predictably also finds that more Indians are accessing news online rather than through traditional platforms such as print. However, across different sources of news, the report finds that consumption and sharing of news have steeply declined. Access to online news has fallen 12% from last year, especially through social media, which recorded an 11% fall. Television has also seen a 10% fall. The report suggests that this may be partly because of the lessening impact of the pandemic after lockdown restrictions were withdrawn in April 2022. 

The other trend noted by the report is the rise in audiences for “digital-born” brands. While these such as the independent bilingual NewsClick as well as those owned by older media groups such as Catch News (owned by the Patrika group) are still not comparable to the reach of legacy media entities, they are seen to be carving out “dedicated and engaged audiences”.

The one problem with the survey as far as India is concerned is its sample size. For a population of more than 1.4 billion (with an estimated internet penetration of 60%), the sample size for the Reuters’ survey was just 2,016 respondents. As a comparison, Finland with a population of 5.5 million (a borough of Delhi would have more people) had a sample size of 2,027 people; the UK with a population of 69 million had a sample size of 2,107; and the US with a population of 331 million had a sample size of 2,081.

The report, however, states in its methodology section that  the “data from India, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa are representative of younger English speakers and not the national population because it is not possible to reach other groups in a representative way using an online survey.” The survey was done mostly in English in these markets, and, therefore, the findings ought not to be taken as nationally representative.

Even so, the key findings–declining consumption of news, less trust in media, and pressures on freedom of the press–are all signals that all is not well for the media in India.

India’s diaspora is bigger and more influential than any other

Some of the world’s biggest global corporations and many of its most powerful ones are today headed by people who were either born in India or have Indian origins. Google, Microsoft, the World Bank, IBM, Adobe, Chanel, and even Britain, where the government is headed by Rishi Sunak, all have Indians at the helm. 

India’s diaspora–the global community of people with Indian origins or migrants from India–is today the largest. According to the Economist, of the 281 million people in the world that are classified as migrants, Indians account for 18 million. In comparison, China whose population India has recently surpassed, has 10.5 million, and Mexico 11.2 million.

Numbers apart, migrant Indians have been more successful, influential, and powerful than say migrants from other countries. Besides the top jobs at giant multinationals, surveys show that the Indian diaspora tends to be better educated and richer than other migrants.

In countries such as the US, they have also exerted their influence to raise the image of their home country. The Indian lobby in Congress and in the states in the US has significant clout. This is also something that rubs off on the Indian government and its standing in the world. Although the exact numbers are not easily available, funding and other resources that non-resident Indians and overseas citizens of India poured in during the elections of 2009 and 2014 are believed to be significant, much of that coming in to support the Narendra Modi-led BJP campaign.

The kind of welcome that Modi has received in the past and continues to do when he visits foreign countries such as the US, UK, and Australia, is massive and unparalleled by what happens when leaders of, say, China or Mexico travel abroad.’

This is symbolic of a cachet of the potential soft power of the Indian diaspora. Modi and his regime are more than aware of this and he has leveraged it systematically on his foreign tours. On June 21, Modi will be visiting the US again, Besides his official engagements with US President Joe Biden and an address to the joint session of the US Congress, he will also engage with gatherings of the diaspora, which have in the past been elaborate extravaganzas where the power of the Indian migrant is showcased. On this visit, you can expect the same. 

China & India’s row over journos

Earlier this month, China asked the last remaining Indian journalist to leave the country. The forced exit of the journalist from the news agency, Press Trust of India, will leave China with no Indian journalist. Indian news outlets had four journalists in Beijing. Over the course of the past month, every one of them has been asked to leave the country.

The same thing has happened on the other side. India has rejected visas for Chinese journalists intending to work in the country and by the end of the month there will be none in India.

The tit-for-tat action is a consequence of the growing tension between China and India, particularly over the border dispute that has been simmering on the northeastern perimeters of India. Both sides accuse each other of transgressing into territories that each claim is theirs. Until that is resolved, it is unlikely that the two countries’ relations regarding other aspects will improve.

India bans a documentary… again

The Allahabad High Court in India has disallowed the news agency Al Jazeera from broadcasting an investigative documentary film on hate crimes against Muslims by the Hindu majoritarian groups in the country. The court decided that the film, “India… Who Lit the Fuse?” could lead to “evil consequences”. 

According to Al Jazeera, “India … Who Lit the Fuse? is part of its Point Blank investigation series. Backed by testimony and documents, it uncovers the activities of Hindu supremacist outfits, such as the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the far-right ideological mentor of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)”.

Earlier, India had banned the BBC’s two-part documentary titled The Modi Question, which investigated Narendra Modi’srole in the Gujarat riots of 2002 when he was chief minister of that state. The Indian government had described the documentary as “hostile propaganda and anti-India garbage” with a “colonial mindset”.

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Centre’s Attitude Towards Harassment of Women is Primitive and Despicable

By Sanjoy Narayan

Nearly five months. That is how long it took for a minister of the government of India to finally take note of the protests by women wrestlers and meet them, many of them Olympians and national-level champions, against alleged sexual harassment by the president of the Wrestling Federation of India (WFI), Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh. The women wrestlers have accused the 66-year-old Singh, of groping, touching the breasts and navels without consent and demanding sexual favours from women wrestlers during his ongoing stint as the boss of the federation.

The wrestlers, who were supported by many of their male peers in the sport (but also conspicuously not supported by many Indian sportspersons, including women athletes such as the sprint champion P.T. Usha) took to the streets with their protests, assembling at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar for the first time in January this year. After they were assured that a committee formed by the government would look into it, the protests were called off. But in April, after the committee submitted its report, the protestors felt it was biased and favoured the accused and they resumed the protests.

The protests soon turned political with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ostensibly supporting the accused who, incidentally, is a member of the party and an MP with considerable clout, facing off against most of the leading opposition parties. Police tried to forcibly remove the protestors from the venue of the protests and in the skirmishes many leading athletes were subjected to violence.

Singh has all along denied the charges and a police FIR filed by his accusers has till now basically led nowhere. Last week, after nearly five months since the accusations were made, a government minister finally met the protestors and assured them that a swift probe would be undertaken. On that assurance, the wrestlers have called off their protests for now.

The thing is India’s attitude towards sexual harassment is very primitive. During the years that the #MeToo movement gathered momentum throughout the world, and charges against leading personalities in entertainment, media, politics, and many other fields led to either their downfall or prosecution, or both, in India also there were a spurt of allegations against noted celebrities, politicians, editors, and others. Almost all of those who were then accused of sexual harassment have remained unscathed. Many of them are back in business and continue to hog the media limelight quite shamelessly. If Brij Bhushan Singh, a grandfather accused of groping young athletes, goes scot free, do not be surprised.

Will Nitish be the one to bell the cat?

Nitish Kumar, chief minister of Bihar, is an astute politician. He is also wily and opportunistic. He has never been averse to switching sides to suit his political ambitions. Those who have followed his moves have seen him ally with the BJP when it suits him; and then ditch that alliance when it doesn’t. Like many powerful regional leaders, Kumar, 72, has long harboured ambitions of becoming the prime minister of India. Now, he his putting together his plans to try and achieve those dreams.

A few weeks back, Kumar proposed a joint opposition strategy to challenge the BJP at the Centre in next year’s parliamentary elections. The idea was to have a convenor (read: Nitish Kumar, of course) who would rally the leaders of the main opposition parties to join hands and form a coalition that would together  field one strong candidate, irrespective of which constituent of the coalition he or she represented, against the BJP candidate in each parliamentary constituency. So, in each constituency that had a BJP candidate contesting, the coalition would choose one candidate who was best suited to defeat the BJP contender.

Some opposition leaders seem to be buying into the idea. Later this month, at a meeting convened by Kumar in Patna, several opposition leaders are scheduled to meet. According to reports, those who have confirmed include Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, and the chief ministers of Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Delhi.

India’s national level politics is littered with the remains of unsuccessful coalition governments: they usually start with promise but end with acrimonious bickering, which is, as you might have already guessed, all over power, position, and pelf. It would be interesting to see whether Kumar’s proposal, which would require parties to swallow their pride and support their rivals in each parliamentary constituency, does actually take off.

The hoopla over the Miss World contest is so anachronistic

Newspapers in India have been gushing about India’s chance to host the Miss World finals once again after 27 years. Miss World is one of the oldest international beauty pageants, created in the United Kingdom by Eric Morley in 1951 Since Morley’s death in 2000, his widow, Julia Morley, co-chairs the pageant. The pageant has grown into one of the world’s biggest and has raised more than £1 billion for children’s charities that help disabled and underprivileged children.

But, the competition, open to women from all over the world who are between the ages of 16 and 27, is said to be one where contestants are judged on their beauty, talent and intelligence, in reality it is a regressive objectification of women.

If India took the lead to initiate, say, a competition that was gender neutral and judged young contestants on the basis of their personalities and intelligence regardless of their gender then that could have been a more thought-provoking headline rather than the swooning excitement that media have been exuding about this year’s Miss World contest, which will once again judge women as objects.

Russia-Ukraine war continues…

The Nova Kakhovka dam on Ukraine’s Dnieper river collapsed on Tuesday, flooding villages, endangering crops and threatening drinking water supplies as both sides in the war scrambled to evacuate residents and blamed each other for the destruction. Ukraine accused Russia of blowing up the dam, which is in an area that Russia has been controlling since the early days of the ongoing war. Russia has, however, denied the accusations and blamed Ukraine for bombing the area.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has ratcheted up its counter-offensive against Russia to recapture territory that it has lost. The attacks have been small thus far but a larger offensive is expected soon.

14-year-old to work at Elon Musk’s Space-X

And now for some good news… A 14-year-old boy has been hired as a software engineer by Elon Musk’s Space-X, the satellite communications and spacecraft manufacturer. Quazi, who is set to graduate from the Santa Clara University School of Engineering this month, is the youngest hire by Space-X.  He has demonstrated exceptional verbal skills from a young age and has an extraordinary aptitude for learning. Kairan has IQ certifications from Davidson Institute Young Scholar, Mensa, Johns Hopkins Center for Talented Youth, and others.

Why India Has Frequent and Horrific Train Accidents

By Sanjoy Narayan

The worst recorded railway accident in India occurred in 1981 when an overcrowded passenger train was blown off the tracks and into a river during a cyclone in Bihar state, killing at least 800 people. This weekend another horrific accident involving three trains in the state of Odisha left nearly 300 people dead and 900 injured.

In the worst-ever railway accident in 1981, it was a terrible cyclone that had blown off the train, which plunged into a river. But last weekend’s accident was caused by a derailment. One long-distance passenger train overshot the tracks and smashed into another, and, going by initial reports, eventually, the collision carried on into a standing freight train.

The number of major railway accidents, to be fair, has reduced in the past 50 years. The railways have taken many measures to increase safety of operation, track upgrades, and technology to manage train movement. Yet, of the 10 train accidents that took place between 2018 and 2021, seven were because of derailments.

Train derailments mostly happen because rail tracks fracture or crack because of expansion and contraction on account of ambient temperature changes—extreme heat in summer followed by cold winters. The phenomenon of fractured tracks is the biggest challenge for the Indian Railways, which oversees a network that spans 128,305 km of track length, 102,831 km of running track length and 68,043 km of route length.

Derailments usually take place as a result of a combination of factors: mechanical glitches, signaling failures, and track construction faults. Railways often complain about lack of funds for maintenance and modernization of the track network. A Comptroller and Auditor General report showed that shortage of funds and underutilization of resources were to blame for at least a quarter of railway derailments. Many believe the pace of introducing new and faster trains is faster than the pace of implementing safety and infrastructure measures. Coach overloading and stress on tracks are also factors that  can contribute to derailments.

Spending more on railway infrastructure and track safety could be one of the steps in the way ahead. In February this year, India allocated a capital outlay of Rs 2.4 lakh crore for the railways. This is the highest ever allocation to the Indian railways. Even this could be inadequate for the required infrastructure needs of the network.

The other problem is overloading and overcapacity in the system. Some experts believe that utilization capacity should be reduced to 60-70% in order to have the system work at the best levels.

14 of the 20 most polluted cities in the world are in India

 Indian cities continue to dominate the list of most polluted places in the world. Fourteen of the top 20 most polluted cities in the world are in India. New Delhi, Greater Noida, Faridabad, and Ghaziabad, together comprising most of India’s National Capital Region, all feature on the list compiled by the World Health Organization (WHO).

The WHO uses the concentration of PM2.5 (suspended particulate matter of 2.5 micrometers or less in a given volume of air) as an indicator of air pollution. For purposes of ranking, WHO has considered the average value of the indicator during 2022. Delhi with an average of 92.6 is the fourth most polluted city in the world. Ahead of Delhi are Lahore in Pakistan 97.4, Hotan in China 94.3, and Bhiwadi in India 92.7.

As India’s population has outpaced China, its number of most-polluted cities has also overtaken China’s. The hazards of living in an environment of poor air quality cannot be overemphasized. It is the biggest cause of premature death globally after high blood pressure, inadequate diet and smoking. According to the Health Effects Institute, an independent, US-based non-profit corporation specializing in research on the health effects of air pollution, 6.7 million people died as a result of air pollution in 2019. In addition, the global health-related cost of air pollution related diseases is estimated to be around US$8.1 trillion.

In Indian cities such as Delhi and its satellite urban centres, the focus on reducing pollution spikes when the air quality levels reach catastrophic (and not just hazardous) levels. Usually this is in winters when smog and concentrated particulate matter increases and the effects are most palpable. Once it gets warmer and things improve (read: get back to normally hazardous levels) the furore dies down. What India needs is continuous efforts to reduce air pollution, including emissions from industries, crop stubble burning, vehicular emissions, and so on. Meanwhile, the country continues to remain high on the ignoble list of the world’s most polluted cities.

Is India just an assembler of iPhones, not a manufacturer?

In 2022-23, official estimates suggest that India achieved a record $10 billion (Rs 82,000 crore) worth of smartphone exports. This was touted to be the outcome of the Production Linked Incentive, or PLI, scheme of the government. PLI is a form of performance-linked incentive to give companies incentives on incremental sales from products manufactured in domestic units and is aimed at boosting the manufacturing sector and to reduce imports.

But shortly after those figures were released there was a dampener. Early last week, in a social media post, the former Reserve Bank of India governor, Raghuram Rajan, a noted critic of India’s economic policies in recent years, stated that the sharp rise in mobile phone exports out of India was fuelled largely assembly of devices in India using imported components rather than full-scale manufacturing of the phones.

In a column published on LinkedIn, Rajan, who is now a professor at the Chicago University, has explained that the growth in cellphone exports may be more on account of assembly of phones in India rather than genuine manufacturing. This, Rajan explains, is because the PLI scheme accords incentives based on the finished phone rather than on the value added by manufacturing in India. Much of the cellphone exports are that of cellphones assembled from imported components. Once the imports are offset against the value of the exports of the assembled phones, the value of manufacturing them in India is not nearly as what may be reflected by the total or gross export values.

According to Rajan, “We certainly cannot claim the rise in exports of finished cell phones is evidence of India’s prowess in manufacturing. Manufacturers are likely engaging in only assembly…”

The PLI scheme was introduced in 2020 to spur local production of mobile phones and offers companies an incentive of 4-6% on incremental sales of goods that are manufactured in India. The incentive is available for five years. If Indian companies are importing much of the cellphone components, including the processors or chips (which are the most high technology components of cellphones), the real value addition by manufacture in India is not the same as the total export value. Rajan has called for a review of the PLI scheme to make it really work as a booster for manufacture in India.

The spectre of jobless growth

India’s economy has been growing at a fast pace in recent years. It is estimated that the Indian economy will grow at a world leading rate of 6.5% for the fiscal year ending in 2024. Yet, jobs are not being created. India is still grappling with high unemployment rate. Overall, in the economy, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), India’s unemployment rate has been hovering around 7% or 8%, up from about 5% five years ago.

In urban India, the situation could be worse. During the COVID pandemic, urban unemployment was estimated to have touched nearly 21% and wages declined. While the rate of unemployment has declined since, there is a lack of fulltime jobs. Many young job seekers are either opting for lower paid jobs or on self-employment options, which are not adequately remunerative.

The reasons for the paradox—relatively high growth rates but low job generation– are complex and multifaceted. One reason is that India’s economy is still heavily dependent on agriculture, which employs a large percentage of the population but is not very productive. Another reason is that many of the jobs being created are in low-paying sectors such as retail and hospitality. Additionally, there is a mismatch between the skills that workers have and the skills that employers are looking for.

There are also structural issues with India’s labour market. For example, many workers are employed in the informal sector, which means they do not have access to benefits such as health insurance or retirement plans. Furthermore, labour laws in India can be complex and restrictive, which can discourage employers from hiring more workers.

Tackling the challenge of breaking out of the jobless growth syndrome is all the more crucial in a country that has already become the world’s most populous and where the number of people between the age of 15 and 64 is nearly 945 million.

Indians dominate American spelling contest

Last weekend, a 14-year-old boy won an annual spelling competition after successfully spelling the word “psammophile”. The word, psammophile, if you’re curious, describes an organism that lives or thrives in sandy areas. Dev Shah, an Indian origin boy from Largo, Florida, won the Scripps national Spelling Bee competition for 2023 and received $50,000 in cash for his achievement.

The spelling bee competition has become almost a domain of young people from the Indian community in the US. The bee began in 1925 and is open to students through the eighth grade. What is significant is that since 1985 when Balu Natarajn won the Scripps bee, Indian-origin students have been dominating the contest as winners through the years.

Desecration of Dancing Girl

The Desecration of an Ancient Dancing Girl

By Sanjoy Narayan

The desecration Mohenjo Daro dancing girl

My introduction to the Indus Valley civilisation happened in history class in school, of course, but also at home. My father was a history buff and among the many replicas of historical artifacts displayed in our small living room’s glass-fronted cabinet, was a tiny one of the famous Mohenjo-Daro Dancing Girl. 

Highly regarded as a work of art, the Dancing Girl is a bronze statuette created by “lost wax casting” over 4,500 years ago, circa 2300–1750 BCE, and is a rare and unique masterpiece. It was found in the ancient Mohenjo-Daro site in 1926. The statue is a cultural artifact reflecting the aesthetics of a female body as conceptualized during that pre-historical period. The figurine, which is nude, shows vigour, variety, and ingenuity. The right arm of the dancing girl rests on the hip and the left arm is heavily bangled.

The significance of the Dancing Girl statue lies in its artistic value and its reflection of the aesthetics of the female body during that period. It also signifies that there was knowledge of blended metal casting in that era and that dancing may have been a part of the cultural activity then. The Dancing Girl statuette, 10.5 centimetres in height, is an iconic representation of art and culture during prehistoric times in the Indus Valley civilisation.

Well, now, with some contribution from the ruling regime in India, that icon has been desecrated. On May 25, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the International Museum Expo 2023 by unveiling a life-size mascot for the event. The mascot is supposedly a “contemporised” version of the Dancing Girl. 

The original statuette was dark in colour and was a nude depiction of the girl. In the so-called contemporised version, the five-foot replica shows the statuette with a pink skin tone and clad in bright pink and yellow clothing. This has led to a controversy in social media and public discourse. 

In recent years, particularly after the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came to power in India, fiddling with history has become commonplace. A pink, clothed replica of the iconic Dancing Girl is another instance of the attempts to distort India’s history–and in this case, pre-history. The controversy over changing history textbooks by tweaking or blanking out events and facts that pertain to eras and periods in India’s History that don’t sit well with the ruling regime’s perceptions and beliefs about “Hinduism” are rife. What this achieves besides distortion of history is difficult to comprehend. 

The outrage over the desecration of one of Indian history’s most iconic artifacts has been limited. To be sure, the mainstream media in India, generally lemming-like in their behaviour, has reported about the controversy but has gone no further. There has been no campaign against what is yet another attempt to banalise and vulgarise historical facts–in this case, an important artifact. The net outcome: India’s rising breed of self-proclaimed moralists have scored another shameful victory.

Making sense of the Manipur violence

When it comes to the north-eastern part of India, which comprises eight states—Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura (commonly known as the “Seven Sisters”), and the “brother”, Sikkim, India’s media coverage is scant and often superficial. Many of these states are socially and demographically complex with different tribes and ethnic diversities that are not adequately understood. In recent weeks violence has erupted in one of India’s north-eastern states, Manipur, and it has led to nearly 60 deaths, thousands left wounded, and 25,000 displacements. 

The violence has been between ethnic groups and has led to buildings being set ablaze and charred vehicles strewn across roads. The violence has also led to thousands of people fleeing their homes. The situation in Manipur is complex and has been fueled by a number of factors, including ethnic tensions, political instability, and economic inequality. The violence has also led to calls for a separate state in India.

The ethnic divisions in the Manipur violence are not simple and have been fueled by a number of factors. The valley area in Manipur is largely inhabited by Meiteis, while the hill areas are dominated by tribals – mainly Kukis. Small fractions of people from both communities live in areas dominated by the other, and these were the people caught in the crossfire first when the violence began. The Meiteis are the predominant ethnic group in the state and the majority of them are Hindus, while the Kukis, a hill tribe, are predominantly Christian. 

The ongoing unrest began when Kuki tribes organised a protest march that led to a clash with the Meitei community. The Meiteis form nearly 50% of the 4-million population of the state. The genesis of the violence was the Kuki (the community is classified as a Scheduled Tribe) protest against Meiteis also being classified as a Scheduled Tribe. The Scheduled Tribe classification is an affirmative action policy that is aimed at ensuring that minority tribes in India get reservations with regard to education and government jobs.

The Kukis believe that the Meitei demand for being classified as a Scheduled Tribe is not fair because as the dominant ethnic group they already enjoy advantages that minority groups don’t. The fissures between Manipur’s ethnic groups have a long history and violence between different groups has flared several times over the past decades.

India’s Opposition boycotts inauguration of new Parliament House

Several opposition parties in India have decided to boycott the inauguration ceremony of the new Parliament building by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on May 28. The decision came after several Opposition parties demanded that President Draupadi Murmu should inaugurate the new building in Delhi instead of Modi because Parliament is a non-partisan institution. The opposition parties have cited various reasons for their decision to boycott the event, including the sidelining of the President and the violation of the letter and spirit of the Constitution.

Union Minister Anurag Thakur has criticised the Opposition for its decision to boycott the inauguration of the new Parliament building, saying it was an insult. Ex-bureaucrats and veterans have also condemned the Opposition for boycotting recent ‘non-partisan’ events of Parliament.

Modi, as most Indians are aware, has a penchant for inaugurating things–it could be a new train, an educational institution, an exhibition, metro lines, expressways, or even less. There is a comical aspect too to the pomp and drama that usually accompanies these inaugurations… but, hush now,  he also has a low threshold of tolerance for criticism. 

Modi’s Australian extravaganza

Prime Minister Modi likes acronyms and alliterations. Last week, when he received what the media called “a rock star” welcome by the Indian diaspora in Australia–an audience of 20,000 thronged a venue where the public meeting was organised, Modi said: “There are three Cs that defined our relationship with Australia: the commonwealth, cricket, and curry. But now it is three Ds: democracy, diaspora, dosti (which in Hindi means friendship),” he began. “Now there are also three Es that define the relationship: energy, economy, and education.”

The crowd, mainly comprising Indian diaspora, lapped it up. Indians abroad are always in awe of Modi. In the US, UK, and in Europe, Indians living abroad are drawn by the thousands to Modi’s events when they happen and their cheers and applause are always overwhelming. 

Even the Australian Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, appeared to be in awe of Modi. He was quoted as saying: “The last time I saw someone on this stage was Bruce Springsteen and he did not get the welcome that prime minister Modi has got. Prime minister Modi is the boss.”

No one did speak about the suppression in Kashmir, the insecurity of India’s Minority communities, the violence in the northeastern part of India, the ill-conceived introduction of 2000-rupee notes followed by their recent withdrawal, or the state of the mainstream media that cower like sheep when a wolf approaches their pen. Amen. 

Meanwhile, in Russia’s Ukraine war…

Last week, Russia’s attack on Ukraine entered its 15th month and it shows no signs of relenting. The war in Ukraine has seen major developments since Russia’s invasion on Feb. 24, 2022. Ukrainian troops have made lightning gains in the east of the country, inflicting one of Russia’s worst military setbacks. But cities including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lviv and Odesa have been hit by Russian missiles. 

Here are more recent updates: Power at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was lost for several hours. Heavy fighting continued around Bakhmut in the east of the country. Front lines in the south around Kherson were largely stable. Ukraine has also accused Russia of coercion in ‘sham’ referendums aimed at annexing four occupied regions. Russia and Ukraine have held their first direct negotiations since March over grain exports, but without any immediate signs of a breakthrough, and missile strikes across Ukraine continue to be reported. The war continues.

Read More: lokmarg.com

Nitish Kumar’

Nitish Kumar’s ‘One Against One’ Strategy is Quite Silly

By Sanjoy Narayan

Nitish Kumar’s “one against one” strategy is quite silly

No offence intended but the proposal, attributed in the media to the Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, to have a single united opposition candidate to contest against the Bharatiya Janata Party in around 500 Lok Sabha constituencies, is a bit silly. According to media reports, Kumar, a wily and opportunistic politician who has frequently switched sides in order to achieve his political ambitions, has proposed a “one against one” strategy to defeat the BJP in the parliamentary elections scheduled for next year.

According to the Kumar formula (if we want to call it that), opposition parties should bury their differences and together field a single strong candidate in each constituency to defeat the BJP. In other words, what Kumar is suggesting is the formation of a new coalition. Only, he is doing it in a different way. He wants all parties opposed to the BJP to come together and have a convenor and a chairperson with the assumption that the convenor will be projected as the prime ministerial candidate. No prizes for guessing whose name Kumar, who will turn 73 before the elections, will likely suggest as the convenor.

Here’s why his proposal is a bit silly. First, it requires a buy in from the Congress party and several other oppositions parties—both at the national level as well as at the regional levels—with many of them agreeing to play second, third, or even fourth fiddle in Kumar’s grand plan. Second, in many constituencies, veteran politicians from opposition parties would have to agree not to contest and step back in favour of another party’s candidate who is considered to be stronger. Try making that work when you have politicians who consider their constituencies as personal fiefs. Also, try getting a senior Congress leader and former candidate to canvass and campaign for someone from, say, the Janata Dal (United), the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Trinamool Congress, or someone else, and vice versa.

Third, and most important, is the fact that for the majority of Indians (we are not talking about politicians or the lemmings in media) the single vote that they have the power to exercise represents a lot. The poorer the voter the more important that single vote is to him or her. The media often deploy the rather inelegant word “anti-incumbency” to describe the phenomenon where a ruling party is unseated by the electorate when it votes and elects a party that is opposed to it. In reality, it is a voter who is disappointed with the ruling regime and wants and hopes it would get better governance from another party or alliance. The majority of voters vote in the hope “for” something not “against” something.

Kumar’s “one against one” strategy is probably the veteran politician’s attempt to get a shy at the top office in Delhi. That’s understandable for an ambitious politician in his twilight years. It, however, also reeks of desperation and a detachment from reality. If India needs an alternative to the BJP, it will have to be a robust one: not a rag-tag ensemble conjured up to fuel one man’s ambition.

How to measure a nation’s true power

The measure of a nation’s true power is a combination of several things. It includes a country’s economic strength (measured by GDP and more relevantly, per capita GDP), its military might, its productivity, and its population. There could be several other factors as well, including softer ones related to a nation’s influence on culture, lifestyle, and so on.

In a recent feature on China, the Economist delved into the concept of measuring a nation’s power by looking at how China measures what is known as Comprehensive National Power (CNP).

While China has attempted to measure its own CNP in various ways, worldwide there are scores of different ways of doing it. According to the Economist, there were 69 different versions of measuring a country’s powerfulness. And, of course, the Economist added its own measure. In its version, there are “three essential ingredients of national power: economic heft, productive efficiency and military might”. Its “hard-power index” takes into account GDP per person as a measure of efficiency; defence expenditure as a measure of might; and non-military GDP as a measure of economic heft. To arrive at the index these are multiplied together.

How do countries fare according to the Economist’s hard-power index. The top eight countries on the basis of their 2021 hard-power index were in this order: US, China, Russia, India, Germany, Japan, Britain, and France.

While the Economist’s feature was on China, it is interesting to note that India ranked number 4 on its list of top eight hard-power countries in 2021.

One more episode in India’s endless corruption saga

Instances of the Indian police and other authorities trying to extort money from the affluent are not uncommon. In fact, we still marvel when a person in authority turns out to be doing his duty honestly, something that is expected to be normal practice. In October 2021, a few young people, including the Bollywood superstar Shah Rukh Khan’s son, Aryan Khan, then 22, were arrested on charges of consumption and possession of drugs while aboard a cruise ship bound for Goa from Mumbai.

To be sure, last year, Khan was cleared of the charges. However, there is now a new twist to the tale. One of the officers of the Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB) on Khan’s case, Sameer Wankhede, has now been charged by India’s apex investigating agency, the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) of trying to extort Rs 25 crore from the actor Shah Rukh Khan to in exchange for “diluting” the case against his son. It has also been found that Wankhede has accumulated disproportionate assets, including several flats in Mumbai, and has spent on many personal trips abroad that are not commensurate with his income. In other words, Wankhede has been accused of several instances of corruption. Sad but not surprising.

US report is scathing on religious freedom in India

The US State Department’s Religious Freedom Report, 2022, has called out several countries including India, China, Russia, and Iran for targeting adherents of certain religious communities. India has been ranked eighth among 162 countries of the highest risk of mass killing.

India’s Constitution declares the nation to be secular. In fact, although 80% of 1.4 billion Indians, according to the 2011 census, are Hindus, 14% is Muslim and 2% is Christian. The report has called out India on several grounds including the fact that religious conversions are banned in some states; attacks against minority communities have been spreading; and  instances of cow vigilantism, which often results in killings and lynching, have been increasing.

India’s official reaction to the report has been predictable. The ministry of external affairs has said that “such reports continue to be based on misinformation and flawed understanding”. The fact is that since 2014 when the current BJP-led regime came to power, Hindu nationalism has been on the rise. And while the government would like to sweep allegations such as those made by the Religious Freedom report under the carpet, minority communities have never been more insecure in India than they are now.

Can AI get as clever as humans? Or cleverer?

Even as the debate about the threats and risks that Artificial Intelligence (AI) may pose to humanity, a new debate about Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has already begun. AGI is a theoretical form of AI where a machine would have an intelligence equal to humans; it would have a self-aware consciousness that has the ability to solve problems, learn, and plan for the future. AGI is different from traditional weak AI, which is restricted to specific tasks or areas.

In theory, therefore, AGI could rival humans and use its abilities to act independently and autonomously, and, in the hands of the wrong sort of people, it could wreak havoc. The good news is that we could be still far away from the emergence of AGI. Some experts believe that we could be several decades away from the emergence of AGI; others believe it could take centuries to evolve.

What if those experts are wrong? After all, few expected AI to reach the levels it has so quickly. What if the road to AGI is traversed at an exponential field? Ponder that.

Read More: lokmarg.com

Make in India

China Could Help Make the ‘Make in India’ Dream Come True

By Sanjoy Narayan

China could help the ‘Make in India’ dream come true

It is easy to slam the Indian government’s policies and initiatives, particularly those related to the economy and development. The Modi government’s “Make in India” initiative is one that has been the target of several brickbats. Make in India was launched by the Indian government in September 2014, barely four months after the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came to power and Narendra Modi took over as Prime Minister, and it was among the earliest of the major economic policies announced by his government.

Make in India aims at encouraging companies to manufacture their products in India. The initiative is based on four pillars that have been identified to give a boost to entrepreneurship in India, not only in manufacturing but also other sectors: new processes, new infrastructure, new sectors, and a new mindset. The idea was to offer India as a base for manufacturing to both, foreign and domestic enterprises, by simplifying procedures, incentivising investments, and easing regulations.

To be fair, the Make in India model has been successful in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). If you exclude the extraordinary circumstances during the pandemic period, FDI inflow has increased by 23% post-Covid (during March 2020 to March 2022 it was reported at $171.84 billion) in comparison to FDI inflow reported pre-Covid (during February, 2018 to February, 2020 it was $141.10 billion).

Yet, it doesn’t take Indian manufacturing to anywhere near the world’s largest factory, In 2022 alone, FDI flows to China reached around $189.1 billion. There is, however, a silver lining for India in what is happening in China.

China is still the world’s largest manufacturer of a wide range of products, both consumer as well as industrial. Its surge to the top began in 2001 when its economy opened up and it joined the World Trade Organisation and multinationals made a beeline to invest in the country. But of late, things are changing and companies are looking at alternative bases for their manufacture. First, as China’s economy grows, labour costs have been rising. Second, there has been pressure from the Chinese government, which controls and regulates almost everything in the economy, to seek technology transfers to Chinese companies so that they could compete with Western MNCs. Third, there have been consequences of the Trump regime’s sanctions against China and the Covid-related lockdowns in the country. And, fourth, there has been significant decline in China’s relations with the West.

Now, Western foreign direct investors are trying to find alternative bases for their manufacturing activities. And, among other destinations such as Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Mexico, India is also increasingly finding favour.

Apple, the maker of the iconic iPhone, recently announced that it would significantly increase its production in India, including manufacture of its latest models. Other companies are intending to do the same.

There are still hurdles to cross. In comparison to China, India’s global supply chain linkages are still underdeveloped; infrastructure is still hobbled with bottlenecks: and regulations, although simplified, can still be overwhelming for investors.

By all indications, though, the Indian government is working on these. Investments in new ports and airports, railroads, and power generation are underway and efforts are on to simplify the red tape hurdles that investors often encounter.

Apple could also herald a change for the better. Foreign investors often display lemming-like behaviour. So, if Apple expands its manufacturing base in India, it could set an example for others to follow. At least the Indian government hopes that it would.

Congress dashes BJP’s southern dreams

The Congress party, which has had a poor track record of winning state elections in nearly a decade, roughly after the BJP came to power in 2014, pulled off a victory in the southern state of Karnataka, unseating the incumbent BJP-led government and securing an overwhelming majority.

Before winning Karnataka, the Congress ruled in only three– Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan—out of India’s 28 states. Now Karnataka adds to that tally.

While the Congress has called its victory a triumph over the “divisive politics” of the BJP, its win has several implications.

First, the BJP’s hopes of making an inroad into the southern states where its influence and sway is marginal have now suffered a setback. Second, the Congress’ victory could signal that it could still pose a challenge for the BJP in the coming parliamentary elections scheduled for 2024. Third, it implies that the Modi magic may be wearing thin—the BJP campaigned in Karnataka mainly by peddling Modi’s persona and image (he himself addressed nine rallies in the state). And fourth, it shows that money, power, and organisational strength, all attributes in which the BJP tops the Congress, may not be enough when it comes to winning the favour of the electorate.

Shinde (and confusion) continue in Maharashtra

If you are a bit confused about what’s going on in Maharashtra, I can assure you that you will stay confused after reading the following paragraphs.

After a split in 2022 created two factions of the Shiv Sena party in Maharashtra, a crisis followed when the Election Commission awarded the use of the title Shiv Sena and its recognisable election symbol of the bow and arrow to the faction led by the party’s rebel leader and current Maharashtra chief minister, Eknath Shinde, who had assumed office after Uddhav Thackeray, the son of the founder of the party, the late Bal Thackeray, had resigned. The controversy was about whether the state’s governor should have invited the BJP (in alliance with the Shinde faction) to form a government.

This was contested and last week the Supreme Court ruled that it could not order the restoration of the Thackeray government after he had resigned as chief minister of the state because he had done so without facing a floor test. The court, however, strongly criticised the then Maharashtra governor, Bhagat Singh Koshyari, for deciding to help the Shinde faction and in concluding that Thackeray had lost the support of the majority of his party’s MPs.

So, Shinde, who became chief minister because the governor had erred, remains chief minister: Thackeray gets some sort of moral win (although nothing material that would change things for him and his faction), and the status quo continues.

As promised, surely you are still as confused as you were before reading this item.

The mess in Pakistan gets messier

Pakistan’s former prime minister, the celebrity cricketer-turned-politician, Imran Khan, 70, was arrested last week on corruption charges. The allegations were that he had benefited from receiving land as a bribe for political favours when he was prime minister during 2018-2022 and that he had also illegally sold official gifts that he had received when he travelled abroad on official trips. Then, after a couple of days, on an appeal to the courts, he was released on bail. The charges still stand although he cannot be rearrested on the same charges for two weeks, according to the bail order.

Meanwhile, as political crisis grows in Pakistan, the country hurtling into severe economic crises. Economic growth has been sputtering, and inflation has soared. Excessive external borrowings by the country over the years has raised the spectre of default, causing the currency to fall and making imports more expensive in relative terms.

million over the past year. There are fears that Pakistan could default on debt.

Mass shootings in the US: please do the math

Gun rights in the United States refer to the legal protections and privileges afforded to individuals regarding the possession, use, and ownership of firearms. These rights are primarily derived from the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution, which states: “A well-regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.”

A judicial interpretation of that right that prevails states that “is that the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to possess firearms for self-defence within their home”.

What it means is that in the US, which considers itself as one of the most developed and forward-looking nation (disclaimer: it is their view, not mine), it is easier for an individual to get guns and keep them than it is in most other places in the world.

Now for some statistics: In the less than five months of 2023 that have elapsed, there have been 185 incidents of mass shootings in which 254 people have been killed, and 708 injured. Most of these have been unprovoked attacks aimed at innocent humans.

Please do the math: in less than 140 days, there have been 185 shootings and more than 250 innocent people have been killed. You won’t be at fault if you think the American Dream is really a nightmare.

Read More: lokmarg.com

Is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation a Meaningless Gabfest?

By Sanjoy Narayan

Is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation a meaningless gabfest?

The members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) which organized a foreign ministers’ summit in Goa last week, like to believe that the organization whose prominent members include China, Russia, and India, is a sort of parallel United Nations (UN) but for a region that straddles Eurasia. Last week the SCO held its foreign ministers’ summit in the laidback erstwhile hippie resort (now a target tourist destination for almost everybody) of Goa in India. But although the assemblage of foreign ministers was impressive and could potentially generate news—after all, there were emissaries from China, Russia, Pakistan, and India, all countries that have at least some beef with each other over some issue or the other—to misquote T.S. Eliot, the two-day meeting ended not with a bang but a whimper.

Of course, there was enough for the news-starved Indian media to work themselves up into a frenzy about the “body language” between the Indian foreign minister S. Jaishankar and his Pakistani counterpart,  Bilawal Bhutto Zardari (they didn’t shake hands when they met at the summit); or the attempts by China and Russia to take the upper hand at the meeting and its sessions (Really?!!); and how India unenviably had to balance its stance even as its relations with China have soured and the latter has grown visibly closer to Russia with which India’s ties, particularly trade-related ones are stronger (what was that again? The friend of my enemy is my…?).

In the end, nothing of consequence really happened. Journalists make a huge deal during such summits of what they call meetings or interactions on the “sidelines”, a reference to dialogues or unscheduled discussions that take place outside of the official agenda. So, the media, in the absence of anything of consequence to report, made a big deal about how the Indian foreign minister met his Russian and Chinese counterparts on the sidelines of the Goa summit. And what happened? You are right. Nothing.

After his meeting with the Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang, Jaishankar tweeted profoundly: “Focus remains on resolving outstanding issues and ensuring peace and tranquility in the border areas.” Wow! What a breakthrough! And, after his meeting with the Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, Jaishankar said the two had done a “comprehensive review of bilateral, global and multilateral cooperation”. How enlightening!

Oh, and there was the usual proforma tirade between India and Pakistan, both accusing each other of heinousness of varying degrees. For the record, Jaishankar said Bhutto Zardari was a “promoter, justifier and a spokesperson” of the terror industry. Zardari, at a press conference in Islamabad after the summit said Jaishankar’s comments were a “joke”. He said: “This country knows me, have I once even in my political history accidentally sat down with a terrorist?” Bhutto Zardari said. “They don’t see that even in our country we  (his party, the Pakistan Peoples’ Party) perform a role in the first ranks against appeasing terrorists,” he added.

So, what was it that we were saying about the SCO? For China and Russia, it is an anti-West platform. For smaller nations such as the Central Asian states, and Mongolia, Armenia, and Turkey, it offers an organization to belong to—an organization that is led by the heft of larger nations such as China, Russia, and India. However, the significance of SCO for India is not really clear. India has been tightrope walking in regard to its relations with Russia and China. At the SCO, it is a sort of big fish but one that is quite confoundingly odd. Its border dispute with China continues to brew; its stance on Russia and the war in Ukraine is conditioned heavily by the dependence on trade with Russia (from whom India buys large supplies of oil and weapons); and it really gets no support, from either China or Russia, on the threats of terrorism via Pakistan that continue to wreak havoc in its territory. Sadly, India’s is a bit of a pitiable state in the SCO.

Will India get a bigger bite of Apple?

Apple, the iconic maker of iPhones and iEverything, has an interesting relationship with China. In fact, as the Financial Times observed recently in an article by a portfolio manager, Apple may be more Chinese than American. Here’s why?

China is where (still) Apple gets most of its products made. In 2016, Apple is believed to have signed a pact to invest US$275 billion in China. That is a huge investment for a single company to commit to one country. Besides, almost 20% of Apple’s revenues come from China (just for comparison, India accounts for around a per cent of the US corporation’s revenues, which were around US$400 billion in 2022). Last year, operating profits for Apple from Greater China (the mainland, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) accounted for US$31.2 billion (its total operating profits that year were US$ 113.96 billion).

Apple also bends over backwards to comply with China and its all-powerful Communist Party. It turns over data accrued from consumers of its products; it blocks apps that irk the Chinese authorities; and it restricts file sharing in the region.

In short, Apple does everything to protect its business relationship, which not long ago, CEO Tim Cook described as “symbiotic”. As much as 46% of Apple’s suppliers are based in mainland China and it is estimated that for some products as much as 95% of the volume is manufactured in China.

However, things could change. Of late, China has been cracking down on foreign companies with more surveillance as well as controls. Besides, labour and manufacturing costs in China have been going up. In the long run, it is sensible for Apple to think of alternative manufacturing strategies. It has been eyeing opportunities in other countries, including India, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Ireland. IPhone manufacture has been increasing in India where three of Apple’s suppliers have facilities, all of them in south India. Apple has been shifting production away from China after the country’s strict COVID-related restrictions disrupted the manufacturing of many of its products, including the iPhone.

So how big a slice of the Apple pie will India get. As of now, India accounts for just 5-7% of the total number of iPhones manufactured by Apple; but the US giant wants to take that level up to 25%. So, soon India could get a bigger bite of Apple.

The godfather of AI fears for humanity

Geoffrey Hinton, 75, is a prominent figure in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning. He is often referred to as the “Godfather of Deep Learning” due to his significant contributions to the development and advancement of neural networks. Recently, Hinton quit Google where he was the main architect of the firm’s research and development in AI and Machine Learning.

Hinton said he left his position at Google to speak out about the “dangers” of the technology he helped to develop. Hinton fears that the tech industry’s drive to develop AI products could result in dangerous consequences—from misinformation to job loss, and even a threat to humanity. In particular, Hinton felt that the in future AI systems could learn unexpected behavior from gleaning vast amounts of data and that such behavior could put at risk humanity.

Hinton isn’t the only voice against the spread and rise of AI systems. Recently, the billionaire and Twitter’s new owner, Elon Musk, had stated in an interview that “AI is more dangerous than, say, mismanaged aircraft design or production maintenance or bad car production, in the sense that it is, it has the potential–however small one may regard that probability, but it is non-trivial–it has the potential of civilization destruction.” And Yuval Noah Harari, the Israeli public intellectual, historian and professor, has observed that AI may have “hacked the operating system of human civilization”.

The risks that AI could pose have come to the attention of governments. Last week,  Big Tech company bosses were called to the White House andtold that they need to protect the public from the dangers of AI. Google’s CEO Sundar Pichai, Microsoft’s Satya Nadella, and OpenAI’s Sam Altman were reminded of their “moral” duty to protect society.

The good news is that many of Big Tech’s CEOs and executives are of the same opinion and some of the latest advances in AI and Machine Learning are being made with caution and regulation.

It is official: Sourav Ganguly doesn’t know much

Spinelessness is a recurring syndrome among people who benefit from patronage. Last week, we witnessed how a leading Indian athlete (now a Member of Parliament where she was nominated by the ruling regime) criticized the protests by Indian wrestlers and many others against charges of sexual harassment and more levelled at the powerful boss of India’s wrestling federation, Brij Bhushan. Now, it is the turn of Sourav Ganguly, former Indian cricket captain and currently chairman of the ICC Men’s Cricket Committee.

Known less for his intellect than his talent as a cricketer, Ganguly was quoted last week as saying that he did not know much about the ongoing protest of the wrestlers but hoped that the issue will be resolved soon. Ganguly either cannot read (no shame in that: many people cannot) or he is scared of coming out with a stronger statement in favour of his peers in the world of Indian sport. Most likely it is the latter.

The Indian news agency Press Trust of India tweeted a video and quoted Ganguly as saying: “Let them fight their battle. I don’t know what’s happening there, I just read in the newspapers. In the sports world, I realised one thing that you don’t talk about things you don’t have complete knowledge of.” Wimp.

Spat over a “drone attack” on Kremlin

Last week, Russia alleged that Ukraine had attempted a drone attack on the Russian headquarters of Kremlin in Moscow with the aim of killing Russian president Vladimir Putin. It was the most dramatic allegations since the war began more than a year ago.

Putin, apparently, was not in the building when the attack happened and the drone caused no material damage. However, Russia called it a terrorist attack and warned of retaliation.

Ukraine, however, denied the attack and its president Volodymyr Zelenskyy was quoted as saying: “We don’t attack Putin, or Moscow; we fight on our territory.”

I what Kremlin says is true, it raises questions about how protected Putin really is. And if Russia’s threats about retaliating are carried out, it could signify a further escalation in the war.