Gurjar Pratihar Debate

Gurjar Pratihar Debate: Separating the Grain from the Chaff

In this era of identity politics, history has become the social capital on which almost all the communities are claiming their right & have, consequently, got entangled in a culture war, trying to find & assert their respective place. In the times of Post Truth, we often come across the practice of rewriting history. This rewriting of history is aimed at creating new heroes and at re-assigning new identity to historical characters as per vested motivations & conveniences of parties involved.

It is in this context that the debate on the caste identity of the Gurjar (Pratihar) empire has arisen, which soon took the form of ‘Kshatriya versus Gujjar conflict’. Gurjardesh: Itihas Aur Mithakon mein Ghamasan, a book written by Virendra Singh Rathore, seeks to put a full stop to this conflict.

The author writes (translated): “Creating history also results in the creation of political and social capital. The purpose of spreading dozens of myths is to acquire this capital in an unethical manner. These attempts to create a false history in the name of course correction will end our diversity and will be destructive for the entire society.”

Rathore walks a tight rope because on one hand, the subject is controversial due to the conflicting claims over history by the two major social groups of North India (Rajput and Gujjar), on the other hand, the challenge remains to avoid seepage of any personal biases in writing.

The basic argument of the author is that the word ‘Gurjar’, which is being conspired to identify with the Gochar/Gujjar caste, is actually a region-indicative word, which once comprised parts of today’s Gujarat and Rajasthan and was called Gurjardesh, Gurjaratra or Gurjaradharitri. But due to political allurements, with the intention of forcibly fabricating a new place in history, today the word Gurjar is being falsely propagated as a caste indicator so that a virtual caste pride can be instilled in the traditionally cattle rearing caste (Gujar). It is also being done to snatch from Gurjara Pratihar Rajputs their clan identity as rulers, divide it amongst other caste groups (Gujjars), and subsequently keep the groups entangled in social conflicts against each other.

It is noteworthy that the author raises the first question mark on the background of the recent propaganda woven around the Gurjar (Pratihar) identity when he sequentially presents linguistic, geographical and historical evidence related to the origin of the word ‘Gurjar’.

The author’s research confirms that the word ‘Gurjar’ originated as a region-marker and its association with the Gujjar caste is just a mischievous political experiment. In this informative research work, the author presents an in-depth study of genealogies (Gotrachar), ancient mentions, inscriptions, travelogues, epics and folklore, all of which have emphasized the same conclusion that the word Gurjar is a region-indicator and it has no connection with the Gujjar caste.

While writing the history of the Indian subcontinent, orientalists created a narrative that proved that after the fall of each empire, India always entered a long era of anarchy; Therefore, for peace and prosperity in India, it was necessary to maintain a ‘liberal autocratic’ system like that of British rule. The ill effects of European history writing (historiography) on Indian history writing cannot be underestimated. While throwing light on the vested political interests of history writing, the author has also examined with evidence the institutional and academic attacks on history by presenting examples from the present context and instances from the British era.

ALSO READ: ‘Unfortunate For Rajputs To Fight For Their Ancestry In Court’

Opening an academic front against this weaponization of history, the author has identified the root of the word ‘Gurjar’ through his research and presented many unprecedented facts to the reader. The chapter division of the book shows that the series of claims on the social heritage of the Kshatriyas is not new. The Gurjar controversy is a new episode in the same sequence whereas even before this the identity of Kshatriya clans has been divided among different communities for political reasons like calling Rana Poonja as Bhil and Teli community being given the surname Rathod or Naunia community being given the name Chauhan.

Rathore writes (translated): “These cases of identity change (theft) cannot even be called well-intentioned efforts to attain social justice because the process of changing surname in the pattern of “Gaon Tharo, Naav Mharo” (Village is yours, name is mine) was just a preparation. After this, came the next stage which is active these days – now on the basis of the newly self-proclaimed Kshatriya identity, there is a direct attack on the heritage of the medieval period. Many kings and dynasties are being claimed to be of that particular caste. Apart from this, some places are claimed to have been settled by a certain person of a particular (contesting) caste.”

The author considers the process of usurping Kshatriya clan identity & handing it over to other communities as an aspect of ‘Sanskritisation’ that was meant to increase the social prestige of other communities. Behind these devious designs, social organizations like Arya Samaj and Caste Mahasabhas including academic forces have also been continuously active.

The author argues: “The prevalence of this phenomenon can be gauged from the fact that in the name of Gujjar history, lofty myths are being sold not only to the Gujjars of India but also to the (Muslim) Gujjars of Pakistan. There too, some organizations like the Mahasabhas have been involved in these activities for the last several years. To mainstream these lies in both countries, initially by spreading the writings of Pakistani engineer Rana Hasan Ali as popular literature, propaganda has been carried out in the media through continuous press conferences in the last several years. Agents of these myths have collaborated with politicians to lobby wide, right from the streets of India to the Parliament. To attract the attention of the masses, threats of grave consequences were made by extremist elements if the protagonist was not shown as a Gujjar in a film made on famous historical personality. Now, there is a concerted effort to fetch formal acceptance for such myths in the form of so-called research papers.”

By exploring the history of the Pratiharas of the Rajput caste who were the rulers of Gurjardesh and other Rajput dynasties who were their feudatories, the author has once again proved that the Gurjar Pratihar dynasty had no relation with the Gujjar caste/tribe, but the Gurjar Pratihar Empire was a Rajput-led Empire. Only due to its geographical lebensraum being Gurjardesh, it was called ‘Gurjar Pratihar’.

Without making history-writing lengthy, the author has kept his writing style reader-friendly and stuck to facts & arguments. This book will not only work to weed out the misconceptions, but will also work as a communication bridge between Gujjar and Rajput communities, breaking the social bitterness spread due to distortion of history. By bringing this very important body of work to the public domain, the author has not only accomplished a momentous task of researching history, but has also documented history of public consciousness, which will prove to be a milestone for the coming generations. The choice of language (Hindi) for this book seems to be aimed at reaching the relevant grassroots.

The book, which brutally examines the misinformation and contradictory claims, is a necessary intervention, amid the ongoing debate on the subject.

The book is also available here on Kindle ebook format

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Tears Have Run Dry in Gaza

Gaza – Where Tears Have Run Dry

Benjamin Netanyahu quoted the ‘Old Testament’ in late October this year, to evoke a bloody revenge spectacle from the mythical Biblical times, as he bombed Gaza, with thousands of dead bodies of Palestinians buried in the rubble, including children: “You must remember what Amalek has done to you, says our Holy Bible. (1 Samuel 15:3) ‘Now go and smite Amalek, and utterly destroy all that they have, and spare them not; but slay both man and woman, infant and suckling, ox and sheep, camel and ass’.”

Unrepentant and hardline Zionists are now saying that killing of children is important because you nip the enemy in the bud. One expert on Israeli TV was heard, expressing unabashed glee, saying that he cannot sleep if there is no bombing in Gaza. Another said, what is wrong with war crimes? War crimes are necessary, it must be done!

It’s like certain Israelis, in the earlier conflicts, would have a picnic: sitting in a garden on an elevated place and watching the killings and ‘fireworks’ in the Palestinian areas. Similar to Nazi officers organizing a massacre, and, then, taking a break — happily going for a picnic with their wives, kids and friends on a week-end, or celebrating outside a concentration camp, with Jewish slaves as attendants.

Undoubtedly, this abjectly extremist, pathologically perverse, racist and supremacist Right-wing regime which controls Tel Aviv these days, is replicating exactly the Nazi model. It’s that there are no concentration camps, gas chambers, no trains jam-packed with Jews being taken to the slaughter houses in Aushwitz or Krakow, etc. There is no Warsaw Ghetto where the Nazis isolated 400 to 500,000 Jews, starving them, blocking their water and electricity, turning them into sick and emaciated creatures, before transporting them to the gas chambers and labour/death camps.

Gaza looks like the Warsaw Ghetto now, and it also reminds of Hiroshima and Nagasaki – following the Amlekites theory from the Biblical times. If this is not mindless madness enacted by mass murderers and backed by Joe Biden and the West, then what is? The Jews were then branded as pests, carriers of epidemics, dirty, filthy, sub-humans, animals, cockroaches and rats, selfish and self-seeking, a curse on society, untouchables and outcastes, not fit to walk on the same roads, or use the same transport, or, share the same space as the Germans.

Something is really wrong with this rogue State. A new clipping of famous Palestinian social scientist Edward Said, when he was young, has emerged; years ago, Netanyahu refused to share the same space with him in a TV programme because he apparently believed that the professor would murder him! Said had no such phobia.

Now, Netanyahu is using a myth to organize a relentless genocide, outside all international law, amidst mass hunger, amputated bodies, including that of severely wounded children, disease, thirst, hunger, dying and death, while the Palestinians are branded exactly in the same manner as what the Nazis did to the Jews! Clearly, in the warped and sick mindset of the Israeli regime and its followers, all Palestinians should be eliminated, especially women and children, so that no child is ever born in this ‘holy land’. Thereby, and after having already occupied the West Bank, they can now construct a Grand Zionist State with nuclear power in the whole of Palestine, including Gaza. Backed by American and Western powers, whose hearts bleed for the killings of innocents by Putin’s army in Ukraine.

Hence, every day, more and more grotesque stories are emerging from Gaza. The latest, unconfirmed news is that 80 bodies returned by the notorious Israeli Defense Force (IDF) had their organs stolen. If true, how is it different from the Nazis taking the body organs of the Jews, including the skin of children, hair and gold-teeth, in the concentration camps?

There are reports coming of targeted killings – execution style. Al Jazeera reported that bodies of new-borns, children and women were found piled up in the Shadia Abu Ghazala school in northern Gaza, with people reporting that they had been shot at point-blank range. Witnesses said the civilians were killed — execution-style — by Israeli soldiers.

Shoot before you ask. That is how IDF killed three bare-chested Israeli hostages, one holding a white flag on December 15. All of them in their 20s.

Meanwhile, amidst a litany of horror stories, scores of Palestinians, stripped, were lined up in a stadium, or filled like poultry chicken in a truck. Video footage showed Israeli soldiers, on tanks, pointing their guns at them. Were they tortured? Were they killed – execution style? War crimes – who cares, certainly not Joe Biden and Rishi Sunak!

At least 4,000 students, 300 medics, 136 United Nations staff and 90 journalists have been reportedly killed; journalists have been killed to block all news of the on-going genocide, even while others continue to report from the ground, including young women journalists with children.

Samer Abudaqa, a cameraman for ‘Al Jazeera Arabic’, was killed while reporting at Farhana School in Khan Younis. He was clearly targeted. His colleague, Al Jazeera Arabic correspondent Wael Dahdouh, who lost his family earlier, was wounded. Journalists in Gaza are carrying a “human and noble message” for the world amid the continuing war and will continue to work despite Israeli attacks, Dahdouh said in his eulogy. “We will continue to do our duty with professionalism and transparency,” he said, as mourners and journalists around him wept.

Tears flowed from his eyes too when Dahdouh had lost everything in his life. He had moved away from the cameras of fellow journalists at the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital after his wife, son, daughter and grandson had been killed in an Israeli air raid.

Take the case of a famous poet, as popular in the West for his sensitive poetry as in the Middle-East — Refaat Alareer. He had told CNN earlier that he and his family had no choice but to remain in the north, because they “have nowhere else to go”. He had said: “It’s an archetypal Palestinian image of a discussion, a debate on should we stay in one room, so if we die, we die together, or should we stay in separate rooms, so at least somebody can live?”

A professor of comparative literature at the Islamic University of Gaza, Alareer also taught ‘Creative Writing’ and was a mentor to young Palestinian writers, inspiring them to write stories about their occupied homeland. On December 7, Alareer was murdered by a targeted attack in Shajaiya, in northern Gaza, where he had taken refuge. He was staying with his brother, sister, her four children — all of them were killed.

Alareer had edited ‘Gaza Writes Back’, a collection of short stories by young writers, he was co-editor of ‘Gaza Unsilenced’, a collection of essays, photos and poetry, and he also contributed to ‘Light in Gaza: Writings Born of Fire,’ an anthology published in 2022. He had studied at University College and SOAS in London. His death created outrage from London to New York. His last poem, became viral. As a tribute, across the world, mourners carried white kites in his memory, and in protest.

In this poem, ‘If I must die’, he wrote:

If I must die,
you must live
to tell my story
to sell my things
to buy a piece of cloth
and some strings,
(make it white with a long tail)
so that a child, somewhere in Gaza
while looking heaven in the eye
awaiting his dad who left in a blaze—
and bid no one farewell
not even to his flesh
not even to himself—
sees the kite, my kite you made, flying up
above
and thinks for a moment an angel is there
bringing back love…

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A Gas Chamber Called Delhi-NCR

Of Life and Living in a Gas Chamber Called Delhi-NCR

It is a mild winter afternoon and I am meeting a friend at the DLF Golf and Country Club, a private members-only club in Gurugram. Widely acknowledged as the best golf course in India and a regular host to international tournaments, it is also a paradise for golf enthusiasts and a symbol of luxury and exclusivity in India. With an annual membership fee of around Rs 7 lakh (USD 8400) or 3.5 times the per capita income in India, it better be a paradise. We are sitting inside one of its glass-encased restaurants and the conversation turned to Delhi’s air pollution.

Through the glass we can barely see the carefully landscaped green lawns, undulating hills, and a manmade lake with a fountain because all of it was covered by a thick blanket of fog. Only, it was not fog but smog, or air that was polluted densely with tiny particulate matter that can get into your lungs when you breathe and lead to serious respiratory and other ailments. It is said that an average resident of Delhi-NCR (National Capital Region) inhales the equivalent of a pack and a half (or 30) cigarettes every day during the worst days of pollution. The worst days are now. And they are ubiquitous. Between October end and January, air pollution levels in the sprawling megalopolis, home to nearly 33 million people, which is about half the population of the UK, routinely turn horrific each year.

Air pollution is not a problem for Delhi and the NCR alone but has come to affect every large and medium sized city in India where construction activity is booming; the number of vehicles on the road is spiraling out of control; and where industrial activity in the form of smoke spewing factories mushroom as zoning restrictions are enforced only leniently. In northern parts of India, such as Delhi and the NCR, the problem is compounded by farmers burning crop stubble to clear the soil for fresh sowings and the smoke from that being swept over the city and its suburbs. 

My friend tells me how all his three cars have air purifiers, which also, of course, are in every room of his sprawling five-bedroom home in a luxury condominium on the edge of the golf course where we are sitting. He coughs frequently, though, and when I ask him whether he wears a mask when he is outdoors, he demurs and doesn’t answer. He is one of India’s privileged class of rich people who lives his charmed life in a bubble but even he doesn’t seem overly concerned about the havoc that the air in the city is wreaking on his body and his health. It is believed that in Delhi and the NCR, pollution may be slashing 10 to 12 years of a person’s life.

As we finish our coffees and prepare to leave, I check the real time Air Quality Index (AQI) on my phone. It is 402. That means the air quality is very very poor and may cause respiratory illness in people on prolonged exposure. It also means that the average concentration of PM 2.5, a harmful pollutant, is 250 micrograms per cubic metre, which is four times the permissible limit. I take out my mask, a N95 that is said to help filter out the dreaded particles–at least a bit–and put it on for the walk to my friend’s car parked about 800 metres from where we are. He doesn’t have a mask and even though he is still coughing a bit, he doesn’t seem to care.

My friend is among the 17,400 dollar millionaires (estimate courtesy Hurun India Wealth Report, 2021) in Delhi and NCR. And as I said, he doesn’t wear a mask when he is outside. Little wonder that very few of the millions of his co-residents in the megalopolis also don’t. Most don’t own and cannot afford air purifiers and millions have to work outdoors all day or live in homes that are just not equipped to prevent the spread of poor air.

This November when air pollution levels in Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR) reached alarming levels once again, a leading Indian newspaper did a feature titled, “Choosing the right mask for Delhi–your ultimate guide”. It was a timely article, exhaustive and well-researched, and listed different masks and their efficacies in tackling or, rather, lessening the grave consequences of breathing the urban sprawl’s terrible air. I am sure many other media publications have done the same thing: warning people about how bad the air quality is and how important it is to take precautions. They needn’t have. No one wears masks in Delhi or its adjoining areas that make up what is known as NCR.

This winter, Delhi and the NCR’s air quality was the worst in several years. On December 23, in parts of the city the AQI crossed 450. AQI values at or below 100 are generally thought of as satisfactory. When AQI values are above 100, air quality is considered to be unhealthy—at first for certain sensitive groups of people, then for everyone as AQI values increase. In Delhi and the NCR area, AQI levels during the colder months, beginning in November, routinely rise to beyond 400, which is not only unhealthy but hazardous and, for people breathing it over a sustained period, can have life-threatening consequences. 

A decade ago, China’s Beijing (population around 22 million) had a similar problem. Thick smog stubbornly enveloped the city and AQI levels soared. But the Chinese government declared a war against pollution in 2013. In Beijing, a $100-billion plan was actioned, which included clampdowns on factories, a ban on old vehicles, and a decisive move from coal and fossil-fuel sources of energy to natural gas. In 2020, Beijing was reported to have had 288 days of clear skies compared to 176 in 2013 when the war against pollution began.

And in Delhi? In 2021, according to one estimate, there were only 60 satisfactory air days (AQI of 100 or less). Things may have gotten worse since then. And, on the face of it, not much is being done to effectively improve things. 

One of the factors that made the Chinese government combat the pollution problem in its biggest cities was public outrage. Even under an authoritarian regime, people in Beijing and other cities protested publicly when air pollution began reaching hazardous levels. That and the fact that China was eager not to have its international image, particularly among investors, tarnished were what spurred the authorities into action. 

In Indian cities, especially Delhi and the NCR, there has hardly been any public protest. Instead there is a pall of fatalism that seems to be pervasive. On the streets of Delhi, Gurugram, Noida, Faridabad, and other satellite towns, hardly anyone wears masks. And, while schools were closed briefly, and some offices reverted to Covid-era remote working for their employees, these were stop-gap measures. 

To be sure, the government has rolled out a set of plans. GRAP, which stands for Graded Response Action Plan, is a set of emergency measures that are implemented incrementally when air quality begins to dip in Delhi-NCR in the winter months. GRAP has four stages, depending on the severity of the air pollution: poor, very poor, severe, and severe+. Each stage has different actions to reduce emissions from various sources, such as vehicles, industries, construction, and waste burning. 

Has that helped? The short answer is no. That is because of several factors:

First, there is a lack of coordination and compliance among various agencies and states involved in implementing GRAP. Second, even after GRAP triggers actions such as a ban on construction, waste burning and diesel generators, these are not implemented by local authorities. Third, the response to changing air quality levels is delayed or insufficient. And fourth, there is a lack of a long-term plan to address the root causes of air pollution such as vehicular emissions, industrial activities, crop burning, and meteorological factors.

To be sure, there have been bans on certain categories of vehicles that don’t adhere to emission standards. There have also been some restrictions on factories and smoke-spewing industries in and around the megalopolis but clearly not enough has been done to have a meaningful impact on the quality of air that millions have to breathe.

Soon, India’s political parties will begin their run-up to the parliamentary elections scheduled for next May. The Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who will lead the campaign for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, is keenly expected to win a third term. By February or perhaps March when electioneering will really pick up momentum, the skies will be a bit clearer (read: AQI levels will no longer be hazardous but merely poor) and that would be good enough for everyone to forget about pollution. The issue of bad air quality, which has already become “old news” that is undeserving of highlighting for India’s media publications will by then disappear completely from their news reports; and you can be sure that air pollution will not be an issue that anyone is going to focus on during the high-decibel election campaigning that usually marks India’s polls.

Instead, the citizens of Delhi-NCR (as well as other Indian cities) will fatalistically breathe “poor” or “very poor” air, thankful perhaps that at least it is not hazardous… till the smog rolls in again next November. 

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Growing Islamophobic Politics In Europe

Islamophobic Politics Amplified in Europe

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is often in the news for making bold statements, but she recently scoffed at Islamic culture and said that there is no place for it in Europe. She says there is no place for Islam in Europe: ‘There is a problem of compatibility’

Her comments were made at a political festival organised by her far-right party – the Brothers of Italy, in Rome, which was attended by the British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and X’s owner Elon Musk, too.

In her speech Meloni said, “The Islamic cultural centres in Italy are financed by Saudi Arabia where Sharia is in force. In Europe, there is a very Islamisation process distant from the values ​​of our civilisation! I believe that there is a problem of compatibility between Islamic culture and the values ​​and rights of our civilization.”

Meanwhile, an old video of her also re-surfaced on various social media platforms that shows her saying she would not allow Sharia law to be implemented in Italy. Meloni also criticised Saudi Arabia for its strict Sharia Law.

“I believe that these should be raised, which does not mean generalising on Islam. It means raising the problem that there is a process of Islamisation in Europe that is very distant from the values of our civilisation,” she added.

During his speech at the event, Rishi Sunak said that he would push for global reforms to the asylum system while warning that the threat of a growing number of refugees could ‘overwhelm’ parts of Europe.

He even warned that some ‘enemies’ were deliberately ‘driving people to our shores to try and destabilise our societies’.

“If we do not tackle this problem, the numbers will only grow. It will overwhelm our countries and our capacity to help those who actually need our help the most,” Rishi Sunak said, adding, “If that requires us to update our laws and lead an international conversation to amend the post-war frameworks around asylum, then we must do that.”

Meanwhile, Tesla’s founder and X’s owner Elon Musk marked a rare appearance as he met world leaders at the annual gathering. “Immigration isn’t enough to combat population shrinking,” he said at the event, explaining: “There is value in cultures, we don’t want Italy as a culture to disappear, we want to maintain a reasonable cultural identity of those countries or they won’t be those countries.”

Analysing the speeches given by these three leaders, makes it clear that not only political leaders alone but even business leaders are increasingly turning to Islamophobia, based on their belief systems and also converting political issues to anti-Islam utterances, to gain public support.

Both Sunak and Musk couched their Islamophobic feelings into anti-immigrants policies. This could be partly blamed to these countries’ own doing. Firstly, various European nations opened their doors for immigrants from the Muslim dominated countries.

The migrant’s flow to many western countries increased as the increasing prosperity there was matched with no desire to engage in menial jobs at lower wages, gaps which were filled by the migrants. Further, they allowed Muslim immigrants entry to assuage their own guilt feeling, as many of the migrants fleeing their homes were coming from those countries where these countries had started or were supporting wars against the so-called radical or Islamist elements.

Though many of these immigrants were not connected to any radical ideology, but they became an easy scapegoat to be blamed for any wrongs happening in these western societies.

Rishi Sunak has been accused of adopting the “toxic” rhetoric of his former home secretary Suella Braverman, after he warned that migration would “overwhelm” European countries without firm action.

Sunak also said that both he and Meloni, with whom he has been forging a close relationship over hardline migration policies, were taking inspiration from Margaret Thatcher’s steadfast radicalism in their quest to do “whatever it takes” to “stop the boats”.

Sunak’s relationship with Meloni, Italy’s first female premier has blossomed over their shared hardline approach towards immigration through policies that have pushed the limits of legality. They have also bonded over their admiration of Thatcher.

As far as Elon Musk is concerned, recently studies have found that Islamophobic comments are being spread widely through X and the company does not respond to complaints or seem to take any remedial action, to handle the issue. X users resort to spelling mistakes intentionally while debating controversial subjects like religion, terrorism, crime, and even the Indian history.

These are not errors made in the heat of the moment, but careful distortions meant to keep the tweet from being flagged or deleted for hateful content. For example, a tweet posted in November 2022 that singled out people with Muslim names from a series of random crime news reports did not refer to the perpetrators as “Muslims” but instead used the phrase “Ola ke Bande” (Ola’s group or Ola’s gang). The word “Ola,” which refers to the Indian ride-hailing taxi service, was used in place of “Allah.” The tweet author currently has close to 7,00,000 followers.

Reporting such tweets for targeting a group of people based on their religion is now more difficult than reporting a hateful tweet simply referring to “Muslims,” as the X moderators viewing the complaint would have to be familiar with not only the Hindi phrase being used, but also understand the double meaning of “Ola.” Moreover, if the moderation process were automated, the machine would most likely see a user verbally abusing a taxi service, which does not constitute hateful conduct.

Meanwhile, reports from France speak of a parliamentary vote in favour of a new tough bill against the immigrants. Right-wing French leader Marine Le Pen described this as an ‘ideological victory’, due to the inclusion of many hardline measures

In fact from Italy’s Meloni to France’s Le Pen, to Geert Wilders’ popularity in the Netherlands and Austria and Hungary’s increasing public support to the right-wing politicians on the rise, the recent developments point to the wave of right-wing and Islamophobic politics overtaking Europe.

(Asad Mirza is a Delhi-based senior political and international affairs commentator.)

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National Interest In Geopolitics

Guided By National Interest in Tricky Geopolitics

What happens when a friend hobnobbing with your adversary sees you as a ‘guarantor’ of its relationship with the latter?

While praising India’s prime minister recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin mentioned that Russia-China relations were “continuously developing in all directions, and the main guarantee of this is the policy of Prime Minister Modi”.

India has gone past last century’s ‘bhai-bhai’ relationship with both. It now appears to view Russia as a ‘cousin’, but China as its adversary. It is a good thought, but in the fast-changing geopolitical situation in India’s extended neighbourhood, it is uncertain how far the India-Russia relationship can impact India-China ties.

Of course, Putin’s current thought is about India’s approach to the conflict in Ukraine. And Modi cannot ignore that partly because of it, Moscow’s close ties with Beijing growing closer.

Putin praised Modi stating that he was ‘surprised’ at Modi’s “tough stance” in safeguarding India’s national interests. He also emphasised that PM Modi’s policy is “a guarantee of deep relations” between New Delhi and Moscow.

He spoke two days after External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar recalled that in the past Russia “had saved us many times.” He also referred to historical aspects of the engagement: “If you look at the Eurasian landmass, it makes sense that India and Russia would have strong relations because it is following the first principle of politics of your neighbour’s neighbour.”

Note the pattern taking place around December, year after year, since Putin first became Russia’s President at the end of 1999. He told then defence minister George Fernandes: “Please tell the Indian people, they have their best friend in me” – or words to that effect. Putin’s presence in Russia has been constant since. With some gaps though, India-Russia Summits have taken place in or around each December. Sure enough, Moscow has indicated a Modi-Putin meeting soon.

Jaishankar does not mince words and is often criticised for it by the Western quarters (reflected by some Indian ones) who point to the growing disquiet over strong India-Russia ties amidst the war in Ukraine. This is even though India has continued to purchase Russian armaments and oil at a concessional rate. Last year’s trenchant criticism of India’s role has more or less died down at the end of 2023.

ALSO READ: ‘2024 Will Be About Russia, China, Modi…’

Jaishankar has sought to refute the impression that India was ‘over-dependent’ on Russia and that their relationship was a ‘handicap’. “This relationship has saved us many times. If we are over-dependent or not, actually at the end of the day it depends on us.”

Endorsing Jaishankar on why India did not support the UN resolution castigating Russia for an “attack” on Ukraine, Prof K N Pandita, a former director of the Center of Central Asian Studies at Kashmir University writes in The Eurasia Times (December 8, 2023): “voting for or against Russia in controversial global issues is not strictly based on euphoric friendship; it is undoubtedly based on ground realities and pragmatism, among the fundamentals of astute statesmanship.”

Times and the contexts, though, have changed. Nobody talks of an India-Russia-China alliance as was done in the 1990s. India and China have turned adversaries in recent years and the border tensions plus China-Pakistan relations have added to India consolidating its ties with the West, especially the United States, as never before. And yet it is keen to retain its options.

There is history that India is reminded of, even as it forges close ties with the US. Defence analyst and a former Indian military pilot, VK Thakur points out that on December 5, 1971, the-then US President Richard Nixon ordered the nuclear-powered and armed aircraft carrier of the US 7th fleet – USS Enterprise – to sail into the Bay of Bengal to intervene in the ongoing India-Pakistan conflict in support of Pakistan. The US hoped to stop the advance of the Indian Army on Dhaka. And if that did not prove possible, to extricate Pakistani forces trapped in East Pakistan – now Bangladesh.”

The principal architect of this ‘tilt’ was Henry Kissinger who passed away recently, leaving behind a polarized legacy without a word of remorse for the impact of his actions on the Bengali people or, for that matter, the people of Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Chile – it is a long list. In the changed times, the new generation of people in these countries have left behind those experiences.

Be it Ukraine or Gaza, the unease of the Western world is unlikely to lessen on the likely Indian moves, now and in the future, on India-Russia-America relationships. Hence, it is important to understand an American viewpoint– albeit one of the many, even if it is by Rajan Menon, an Indian scholar.

Writing for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Menon states: “By refusing to join the Western sanctions regime, India has demonstrated that it intends to pursue an independent foreign policy guided by its interests. The Indian-U.S. security relationship is relatively new and untested. The US’s Cold War alliance with Pakistan and its rapprochement with China in the 1970s have left a legacy of mistrust among Indian policymakers. By contrast, though, it will lose the depth it had during the Cold War. The India-Russia relationship has endured for over two generations and has served them well, including in difficult times.

“India has no reason to forsake the multiple benefits it has received from a decades-long relationship with Russia, and it would be a mistake to expect that it will do so, no matter the growing tensions between Russia and the West,” Menon states.

However, he points out: “The balance in Russian-Indian relations is shifting decidedly toward New Delhi. Russia’s break with the West and ever-closer ties with China as a result of the war against Ukraine will make sustaining its partnership with India more challenging.

What do India-Russia ties mean to the Indo-US relationship? Menon writes: “Whether Washington’s relationship with New Delhi thrives or proves disappointing will depend on the extent to which it benefits both parties rather than on the degree to which the United States succeeds in pushing India away from Russia. The future of the Indian-Russian relationship will have its own logic, determined increasingly by India, and can be shaped at best only at the margins by the United States.”

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Resolve To Tackle Climate Crisis

New Resolve to Tackle Climate Change

Though right form the start or even before it started, the vibes from the Dubai COP 28 Summit were not positive. However, as the jamboree ended, 198 countries announced that they are committed to phase out fossil fuels as they pose the main climate change accelerators.

Ending Fossil Fuels

The countries agreed to contribute to a transition “away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.”

This could be counted as some progress as just a few years ago it was inconceivable that fossil fuels, which in fact still fulfil almost every country’s energy needs to a large extent will be shamed and might be banned.

However, the announcement doesn’t mean anything, as there is no mandate behind it, but it could help build momentum for more action from governments. The Paris climate agreement’s commitment that countries would pursue efforts to limit global heating to 1.50 C, above pre-industrial levels staged a version of this in 2015.

In fact, the agreement doesn’t underline the urgency required to avoid worsening climate destruction, and it includes language, which may fuel further delay or non-action.

A New Culprit Identified

While oil and gas companies have not yet committed to producing less fossil fuel, their pledge to cut emissions from their own operations is noteworthy.

In the agreement, instead of highlighted the harmful effects of Carbon Dioxide – CO2, the delegates were somehow influenced to focus more on Methane-CH4.

Methane, an odourless gas is produced by virtually every oil and gas project worldwide. When it is not cost effective to capture it, companies often release methane into the atmosphere via venting or burn it through flaring, which ironically converts it into Carbon Dioxide. 

The gas also leaks into the atmosphere from facilities via innumerable small, undetected or unreported leaks in pipelines or other equipment, or through large-scale releases called “super-emitter” events.

Scientists say methane has been responsible for up to 30 percent of global warming since the industrial era began, so the Dubai agreement offers a win for the climate, even if the 50 signatories account for less than a third of the industry’s total operational emissions.  

Oil companies may choose to shut some production because that is the most cost effective answer to the target of zero flaring of methane. Some of the biggest oil companies have already promised zero routine flaring and near-zero methane, and a number have shown that big progress can be made on the latter.

Renewable Energy

A second COP 28 commitment could affect demand for fossil fuels by tripling the world’s renewable energy generation capacity to at least 11,000 Gigawatts –GW by 2030.

More than 120 countries signed up to this pledge, which will require a big leap in effort from what has been done before. It took 12 years from 2010 to 2022 to achieve the last tripling of renewable capacity. This one has to be done in the space of eight years.

This means that meeting the goal will be difficult, but achievable. This is also supported by the fact that solar and wind are now the cheapest sources of new energy generation in most countries, but the growth of renewables is being held back by a range of bureaucratic and regulations bottlenecks that many authorities are struggling to unblock.

Generating More Efficient Energy

The third COP 28 commitment with implications for hydrocarbons is aimed at boosting energy efficiency.

More efficient and smart use of energy is widely referred to as the “first fuel” in clean energy transitions because it offers some of the quickest and most cost-effective options for cutting emissions, lowering energy bills and bolstering energy security. 

The countries that signed up to the 2030 renewables pledge agreed to collectively double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements from around 2 percent to more than 4 percent every year until 2030.

However, all this could translate into real achievement only when the world leaders who attended COP 28 are focussed to turn these words into real ground action by creating plans for implementation of the summit’s goals.

This certainly leaves much to be desired, given the sway of the oil and petrochemicals giants on various governments, an example of which is the manner in which they have been able to turn the attention from CO2 to MH4 at the recent summit. Thus, a resolve coupled with sincere and active policymaking, should pave the way forward but it may also invite political opposition and industry resistance.

 (Asad Mirza is a Delhi-based senior political and international affairs commentator.)

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A Reporter’s Romance by Mahendra Ved

Stories, Memories, Conspiracies A Reporter’s Romance

The smell of newsprint. The quintessential smell of newsprint. For old-fashioned journalists who started working on a typewriter, the catchy cover of this book would be a quick trip down nostalgia lane. It will be soaked with the sweet and salty memories of the heady atmospherics of a bustling, noisy and chaotic newspaper office, with the newspaper in black & white arriving next morning as a testimony of their faith in their loved, addictive profession. This book, and this cover, tells us this story of the 5 Ws and 1 H, along with the byline, the typeface, the point size and leading, and the headline, half-hidden.

@75 As I Saw It: A Reporter Recounts, penned by seasoned journalist Mahendra Ved, is what it claims to be: a reporter’s notebook and close encounters fleshed out with anecdotes, stories, revelations, memories, journeys, conspiracies, murders, riots and violence, prime ministers and politicians, and film stars and celebrities. In this journey, now at 75 in year 2024, for a reporter, there is no QED. In this raw copy which must go to the copy desk, there is no full-stop in the end.

In a sharply cryptic blurb on the back cover, another seasoned Hindi journalist plays a spoof on himself. His reporter’s journey too is still on, after having traversed all over the world with miscellaneous prime ministers and for other assignments, and having reported from the ground across India, including from the dense forests of Chhattisgarh, living among the adivasis. Says Ramsharan Joshi: “Being @80, I see my contemporary, Mahendra Ved’s creative Avatar @ his 75 as a full bloom of professional accomplishment.”

The introductory chapter, ‘A Reporter’s Audacity’, tells a tale. When he started young, like most of us, there were certain core values and ethics of journalism which journalists had inherited from the profession. I presume many journalists, never ever compromised, till the end of their lives – despite being pushed to the wall. Besides, Ved is proud of his objectivity and neutrality.

He writes: “When I began, giving free publicity to any individual or institution in that ‘socialist’ era was a no. Dealing with private sector enterprise was like a touch-me-not. It was, indeed, one-sided. Now the private sector is the bread-giver, and (the) media is its best – and worst – example.”

He continues: “Field reporters are becoming invisible, and expendable. Ask any committed reporter, he/she will tell you that they have worked at the cost of their health, personal life, personal relationships, etc. Work is the only thing that keeps a reporter going…”

The contradictions have been sharp and jarring in contemporary times. He tells the story of one of his last experiences at The Times of India, Delhi — meeting a young TV reporter in a news briefing. He was “loudly asking questions on cue on cell-phone from his boss – loud enough to disturb the briefing”. The young fellow “accosted” Ved and said, “Sir, please tell me the news point of what he said.”

Ved was reminded of his younger days. He “obliged” him. “Back in the office, my editors watched this reporter’s ‘Breaking News’ on TV. They told me: ‘This is your lead’.”

Ved witnessed a great event in Indian space history. India was collaborating with the Soviet Union on space research. Sputnik, the first elementary satellite, happened in 1957. (Sputnik was the name of a revolutionary newspaper started by Lenin.) Yuri Gagarin was the first man to go to space, something “unthinkable” those days. “When the space hero visited, he took India by storm. He conquered the popular imagination of my generation.”

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Later, Ved happened to be in the same Control Room of Doordarshan with Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, one of two lucky journalists. The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) had launched a joint mission with Soviet Interkosmos. Two Soviet astronauts and Squadron Leader Rakesh Sharma of the Indian Air Force spent seven days, 21 hours and 40 minutes aboard the Salyut orbital station. Air Chief Marshal Dilbagh Singh addressed the PM: “Madam, now you can speak to him.”

Rakesh Sharma was asked about his health, his food, if he had slept properly, and how it felt to be in space. He said, “Zaroorat se zyada hi khatey hain.” He also said that the crew practiced yoga. (Mrs Gandhi too was a trained yoga practitioner. )

Wahan se Bharat kaisa dikhta hain,” She asked. He said, “Saare jahan se accha!”

“There was a hushed silence. Nobody clapped… The PM’s face lighted up… A lump rose in my throat…”

Rakesh Sharma was honoured with the Ashok Chakra. He also received the ‘Hero of the Soviet Union’ award.

Many of us, as reporters, saw at close range and documented the State-sponsored massacre of Sikh citizens in November 1984 in Delhi and elsewhere, after the assassination of Mrs Gandhi. The organized mass murders, loot and violence went on four days and the Indian State and its law enforcement agencies refused to move.

Ved remembers his Sikh neighbours in a locality where he lived in a rented house with his wife. When he left the place, neighbours came to say goodbye. “Among them was a Sikh family. Its patriarch, whom I only knew as ‘bauji’, insisted that we have our last meal together. That evening he repeatedly said: ‘We will not forget 1984’.”

During those turbulent days, Bauji and his three sons visited him regularly. They would spend the whole day in Ved’s house and then leave after dinner. “No queries were needed. Fear had made them seek refuge.”

“With the Press label on my scooter as the only protection, like any other reporter, I rode on prominent through-fares seeing burning taxis and taxi-stands, presumably, Sikh-owned, and fleeing men being shorn of their turbans. It was scary to see hundreds of stick-wielding men, shouting slogans in a riotous mood, thronging the VVIP security zone, as the policemen passively looked on…” The Delhi Police had let law and order slip out of their control.

Ved was posted in Dhaka when Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, the founding father of Bangladesh, and 27 of his family members, security chief and servants were murdered after an army coup. Mujib’s brother and brother-in-law, two sons and their wives, one of them pregnant, his third son, just about 10, were murdered. He remembers this radio announcement in the morning of August 15, 1975: “This is Major Dalim speaking. Under the robust leadership of Khndoker Mushtaq Ahmad, the armed forces have taken power. Sheikh Mujib and his government has been ousted. From now on, Martial Law has been declared…”

It was a grim day, but a “journalist cannot place himself/herself above the news”. While airports and communications came under army control, Ved was able to smuggle out two reports, one with his wife and another with a passenger who were flying to Calcutta.

Interestingly, Ved points to the invisible hand of a section of the CIA behind the assassination. He writes about two officials in the US embassy in Dhaka. “Both officers became known after the August 15 events. In many reports and analysis, Cherry was cited as the CIA station chief in Dhaka. That Sheila was seen dancing at a Dhaka hotel with Dalim and Cherry allegedly ‘helped’ the coup d’etat became known to the world..”

It is also well known that the US had backed and propped the army dictatorship in Pakistan. While Soviet Union backed India, and the freedom movement in Bangladesh, the Americans were unhappy with the massive victory of the Indian forces, the liberation of Bangladesh, and the surrender of thousands of Pakistani troops. The US establishment was a tacit observer of the genocide and mass rapes unleashed by the Pakistani army in Dhaka and elsewhere, soon after they had sensed their inevitable defeat.

Mahendra Ved’s book is loaded with anecdotes and revelations. A close reading would suggest deeper nuances and political ramifications. For journalists, old and young, this is a reporter’s diary which heightens the beauty of the profession, and shows us, how we, as journalists, have lost our way in contemporary India.

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2024 Will be About Russia China Modi

2024 Will be About Russia, China, Modi, the Middle East, White House, AI and Much More

We humans are remarkably adept at adaptation. We can adjust to most changing situations, sometimes swiftly and at other times less quickly. Perhaps the speed with which we can adapt to technology is among the highest. The pace at which we adapt to geopolitical changes is probably slower. Regardless of how quick or slow we are, we most certainly can adapt to change. 

According to Jean Piaget, the Swiss psychologist known mainly for his work on how a child develops cognitive abilities, humans adapt to new information and experiences using two processes. We first assimilate new situations by incorporating the new information into our mental framework. Then, in the second stage, we change our mental framework or structure in order to fit the new information. Together, the two processes help us learn, adjust and grow with the new environment or changed situation.

Russia’s Ukraine War May Conflagrate. In 2023, there were huge upheavals in our environment. Some of them, such as Russia’s conflict with Ukraine began earlier, in early 2022, but it was in 2023 that it became more grim. The war was here to stay. In the beginning, many, including seasoned analysts of geopolitical conflicts, assumed that Russia’s war against Ukraine wouldn’t last long and would peter out because, at least in the beginning, Russia was perceived to be ii-equipped to win the wat and its initial onslaughts had not been very successful. Then there was also the setback when Russian mercenary fighters, the Wagner Group rebelled, ostensibly, against the Kremlin but then backed down before its controversial leader Yevgeny Prigozhin died mysteriously. 

For a while in 2023 it seemed that Russia would back off and that the war would end. It didn’t. As we move quickly towards 2024, it could seem that in the coming year, the Russia-Ukraine conflict could not only continue to rage but Russia could firmly dominate the situation and even be a real threat to other regions in the neighbourhood. Vulnerable countries include Georgia, Moldova, Belarus, and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. 

In Ukraine, which is already straining since the offensive began, the situation could get worse in 2024. Although the European Union (EU) has decided to begin talks on the country’s membership of the union, the war funds that it wanted to provide have been blocked by a veto from Hungary. And NATO, which is dominated by the US, could also be hamstrung in its efforts to help Ukraine because in the US legislators have been blocking moves to increase America’s support to the beleaguered nation.

Meanwhile, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, 71, will contest (and, in all probability, win) a fifth term in next year’s elections and continue his authoritarian grip over his country’s policies, strategies, and actions.

These developments can embolden Russia, which has already unleashed hybrid war tactics against Finland, a new Nato member with which it shares a 1340-km border by sponsoring cyberattacks, pushing in illegal migrants from third countries, and threatening oil pipeline disruptions. 

In 2024, with flagging support for Ukraine, you could expect to see a further conflagration of Russia’s expansionism in the region. 

In Gaza, Peace Could Be A Far Cry. Since October 7 when the Palestinian militant group, Hamas, launched horrific attacks against Israel (more than 1,400 people, mostly civilians were killed, and hundreds were taken as hostages). Israel responded by launching a war in Gaza, killing thousands of Palestinians and displacing nearly a million more. The conflict is still ongoing, despite international efforts to broker a ceasefire. 

With both Israel and Hamas not willing to yield or agree to a long-term ceasefire, the current situation could get even more volatile in 2024. The prospect of settling in favour of a two-nation theory–the idea of creating two separate states for Israelis and Palestinians, based on the 1967 borders–is highly uncertain. Although that theory is backed by the UK, US, the UN, and many other countries, the main protagonists, Israel and Palestine, have irreconcilable differences that are related to issues such as the status of Jerusalem, the fate of Palestinian refugees, the Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and the security concerns of both sides. 

Israel, which has expanded its settlements in the occupied areas of Gaza, also demands that any Palestinian state be demilitarised and recognise Israel as a Jewish state. Hamas, which controls Gaza, has rejected the two-nation theory and calls for the liberation of all of historic Palestine, from the river to the sea, does not recognize Israel’s right to exist and has waged several wars against it, firing rockets and launching attacks from Gaza.

Hamas has Iran’s backing and 2024, it is feared, could see a growing involvement of Iran in the conflict. Iran, whose efforts at developing nuclear weapons is a source of global concern, is allied with Russia (it supplies Russia with drones and other weapons to use against Ukraine). Israel’s counter-offensive against Hamas, which has affected millions of civilians in the region, has already raised the ire of Muslim countries in the neighbourhood and in 2024, unless a breakthrough settlement emerges, the Middle East could become a much larger and more critical arena of warfare that could draw in other nations and become a full-blown catastrophe.

A New Occupant in White House. There are few offices that are of as much consequence to the world as that of the President of the United State of America. It is a fact that is both unfortunate and true. Next year, Americans will elect a new President. While the current president, Joe Biden, will likely be in the race as the Democratic candidate, many expect a Republican to win the contest. Curiously, Donald Trump, who may be besieged by court cases of different kinds and could be even facing jail time, continues to be the most favoured Republican Party candidate. His approval ratings are way higher than other hopefuls from that party (namely, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, and Vivek ramaswamy). 

Biden will be 82 around the time of the election and is believed to be showing signs of age-related unfitness. Trump, 77, is no spring chicken, but his legion of supporters keeps growing. A second Trump presidency could mean a harder line of inward looking American policies, protectionism, transactional diplomacy (read: deal making), and, in effect, a reduction of commitment to Nato, Ukraine, or the Middle East. Any of those policies could alter the global trends in 2024 profoundly.

Even if Trump is not the next President, any other Republican in the White House would likely have similar international policies–for instance, to downsize America’s involvement in international conflicts. As it stands, even Biden is facing problems in his efforts to pledge more support for Ukraine (the Democrats have a slight edge in the upper chamber of the American legislature, the Senate, but in the lower one, the House of Representatives, it is the Republicans that have an edge). 

China’s Third Revolution. China’s growth may have slowed down in 2023 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the weakness in the property sector, and the subdued external demand. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its growth forecast for China to 5.4 percent for 2023, but expects it to slow to 4.6 percent in 2024. Other institutions, such as the World Bank and Moody’s, have also cut their 2024 growth forecasts for China to 4.4 percent or lower. Does that mean China’s influence next year will be less consequential? Most certainly not.

For one, the Chinese government has vowed to strengthen its fiscal policy and expand its domestic demand to boost the economy despite the many challenges and risks it faces such as overcapacity in the electric vehicle and other sectors, the ailing property market, the mounting local government debts, and the structural factors such as weaker demographics.

Yet, we must not forget the Chinese president Xi Jinping’s unwavering ambitions of transforming  the world order by redrawing the geographic boundaries of China and replacing the US-led West as the dominant power in the Asia Pacific. He has also sought to advance the principles of his new China on the global stage and to make other countries follow “a Chinese approach to solving the problems facing mankind”. 

Like Putin, Xi, 70, is here to stay and could remain as his country’s supreme leader for life. Unlike Putin, Xi’s international moves are more entwined with trade, commerce and dominance via China’s manufacturing heft. Expect in 2024 to see China wield more clout in the Middle East, where it has already brokered a historic deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and in the South (especially in developing nations of Africa, and Asia) where its presence and influence has been steadily increasing.

Modi 3.0 and the Rise of India. Next year in May, more than 900 million Indians will be eligible to vote in the parliamentary elections, in which Prime Minister Modi and his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), hope to win a third term. Many observers believe that he will. In a recently held round of state assembly elections, the BJP won three important ones–Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh (in first, it won a fifth consecutive term; and in the other two, it wrested control from its main rival, the Congress party). 

The Congress, which was once a more powerful central party, is now much diminished. Of India’s 28 states, the BJP is now in power in 12 of the 28 states and is in the ruling coalition in four others. The Congress, on the other hand, is now in power in only three states. 

Regardless of its performance in the recent state elections, the BJP’s prospects of winning next year’s parliamentary elections are high. First, because the opposition does not offer a big challenge. A recent coalition of several parties, including the Congress and other BJP-opposed regional and other parties has not really made significant impact on national politics in India.

More importantly, the Modi government, which came to power nearly a decade back in 2014 is seen to have delivered on many fronts. 

According to the IMF, India’s GDP growth rate for 2022 is projected to be 7%, which is higher than the world average of 3.08%. India’s economy is also the fifth largest in the world by nominal GDP, with an estimated size of $3.73 trillion in 2023. However, India’s GDP per capita is still low compared to other major economies, ranking 139th in the world with $2,690 in 2020. Inequality and disparities in development continue to be challenges in a country with a population of 1.4 billion.

Yet, the Modi regime’s track record has won him plaudits. According to a US-based consultancy firm, Morning Consult, Prime Minister Modi has the highest approval rating among 22 global leaders, with 76% of the respondents expressing satisfaction with his performance. Similarly, the Ipsos IndiaBus Poll found that Modi had an approval rating of 65% among urban Indians as of September 2023.

Some of the possible reasons for Modi’s high approval rating are his government’s achievements in various sectors, such as tax reform, bankruptcy code, sanitation, housing, energy, infrastructure, digital services, and national security. Next year, you could expect him to win another lease of trust from Indian voters.

Finally, 2024 Could be the Year of AI. Many believe that the real threat of artificial intelligence (AI), whose technology is rapidly progressing, is when it becomes capable of performing any intellectual task that humans or animals can do. Hypothetically, it is called AGI or artificial general intelligence and would be able to understand natural language, reason, plan, create, and adapt to new situations. 

AGI is the long-term goal of some AI research being conducted now at companies such as OpenAI and others and while it is not known when or whether it will be achieved, many have expressed apprehension about what its impact on humanity could be. For instance, AI could be weaponised. Drug discovery tools could be used to make chemical weapons; AI could use disinformation to destabilise societies and nations; or be misused by empowering groups with destructive intent. ‘

Expect 2024 to be the year of debate about how to control or regulate the development of AI and what impact it could have on humanity: on jobs, sovereignty, stability, and society.

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Mizoram Votes For Change

Methodical Mizoram Votes For A Change

What will immediately strike any visitor from a city in the plains to Aizawl, capital of the north-eastern state Mizoram is the disciplined way people live there. Congested Aizawl is with little green left, but life goes on in a quaint way. For instance, unlike drivers in Delhi or Kolkata their counterparts in Aizawl are not prone to take liberty with traffic rules or honk horn to the irritation of others. In the plains, election campaigns these days are marked by noisy processions, public order disrupting meetings and often pasting of revolting posters on the walls. The large cut-out of leaders all over the place once predominant in some southern states are now an all-India eyesore. Nothing like that in Mizoram.

In the kind of medley seen during the recent election campaign in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana, real issues often got blurred by announcement of promises destined to remain unfulfilled. The opposite was the case in Mizoram where Christians, according to the 2011 census, constitute 87.16 per cent of the population. Likely because of religiosity impacting their behaviourial pattern, the Mizos will unfailingly go by the norms laid down by the Church and civil society. With politicians in the plains prone to running wild in their campaign often describing opponent leaders in derogatory language, the north-eastern state presented an altogether different picture.

The three principal political outfits in the state, namely, ZPM (Zoram People’s Movement), now in power for the first time pulling off a silent revolution, MNF (Mizo National Front) that led a 20-year insurgency but finally signed the Mizoram Peace Accord in 1986 with the Union government and the Congress all agreed ahead of start of election campaign to abide by the code conduct while seeking favour of voters, authored by the Church-led Mizoram Public Forum (MPF).

Akin to what happens in more mature democracies, candidates from all parties will use MPF platforms to present their programmes and invite debates. Big election rallies and vulgar use of money power do not find favour with the code of conduct. Even door to door campaigns must not be intrusive. Election Commission in a rare instance conceding the Church request to postpone the vote counting day from a Sunday (3rd December) to the following day in order that religious activities were not disturbed is a testament of its influence.

Whatever the differences in behaviour of politicians and the public in Mizoram from what we have been experiencing in the plains, elections to the 40 member assembly in the tiny north-eastern state were keenly contested. Even while it was always the Congress or the MNF that would rule the state since its formation in 1987, at no point this time there was any doubt that the duopoly was destined to end and ZPM led by indefatigable former IPS officer Lalduhoma would come up trumps. Not only does Mizoram figure close to the top of state literacy table, but the voters, especially the young ones, are mindful of exercising their franchise. The recent elections saw nearly 90 per cent casting their votes. Mizoram is a vibrant democracy by any reckoning.  

No doubt anti-incumbency had worked both against MNF and Congress. Local identity being a big issue in Mizoram, MNF lost traction with many by being a part of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. Data from Election Commission will show that there is no correlation here between the percentage of votes secured and seats won. ZPM got 27 seats with 37.86 per cent votes, MNF won 10 seats with 35.10 per cent vote and Congress secured only one seat with 20.82 per cent vote. Take BJP securing two seats with just 5.06 per cent vote against one last time.  

Anti-incumbency and the concomitant administrative torpor definitely did work against the parties that between them always ruled the state. Poor governance and corruption linked to implementation of New Economic Development Policy and transfer of monetary benefits during the MNF rule convinced the Mizos that ZPM, full of new faces and drawn from different walks of life such as media and sports, has the potential to start a new chapter for Mizoram where poverty is rampant and unemployment high. ZPM promising a “new system” that will usher in “administrative reforms, land reforms and economic reforms” resonated with the voters.

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The state wanted a break with inactivity in management of state affairs and vibrancy in governance was what Lalduhoma promised. ZPM commitment to introduce minimum support prices for locally grown crops of ginger, turmeric, chilli and broomgrass and also their procurement went down well with rural families.

As he was sworn in as chief minister along with 11 ministerial colleagues, Lalduhoma’s three principal challenges will be to create jobs in industry and agriculture, introduce effective welfare schemes for women who stood by ZPM in assembly election in a big way and ensure that Chin refugees from Myanmar and Bangladesh and Kuki-Zomi refugees from Manipur are treated with compassion and respect. Incidentally, the Chin and Mizos are kindred tribes of the Kukis and they collectively are described as Zo people. Naturally, whether it is ZPM or MNF, the feelings are strong for refugee welfare. ZPM has, therefore, no compunction in saying that on the issue of taking care of refugees of identical ethnicity as Mizos, it stays on the same page as MNF.

Here, however, the rub is the Union government is disinclined to support the cause of refugees. Lalduhoma has occasions to register his regrets about the denial of Central assistance to look after the refugees. This, however, will not in any way dim his resolve to give shelter to the ones who fled from the tyranny of the Myanmar military regime. One of his top priorities on assuming the office of chief minister will be to prevail upon New Delhi to share the burden of refugee care. At this point, the state with parlous finances is hosting around 47,000 refugees.

Lalduhoma says: “The state’s financial situation is bad and the government has received a warning from the Reserve Bank on this. We will use the new financial year for consolidation.” The budget for the 2024-25 financial year bearing the stamp of ZPM policy will give the roadmap of attempts to be made at economic revival leading to creation of jobs and resurgence of rural economy, the chief minister has hinted. He wants his ministerial colleagues to embrace austerity. Only the future will tell how their behaviour will be once they taste power. The real challenge for Lalduhoma will be to enlist the support of the Centre without aligning with NDA. Mizo nationalism (one may call it sub-nationalism) is pretty strong. After all, one reason for MNF losing the turf to ZPM was its hitching to NDA. 

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Could Hamas-Israel War Implode After 12th?

The Israel-Hamas conflict could take on an unexpected turn after the 13th of December when COP 28 finally ends. This may have been the silent influencer in the Israel -Hamas war that few have paid attention to. Once the UAE is free from COP, and any possibility of disrupting its great moment passes, it is likely that attention will swiftly transfer to Israel -Hamas was and positions will begin to harden.

COP 28 is a very important event for UAE. With 80000 people attending, major decisions being made, all the world’s States represented and World Leaders dropping in, UAE could not afford to risk the Palestinian conflict spreading out and threaten the event.

Most of the Middle East countries cooperated in this situation. UAE didn’t want a security threat stopping the COP. Hence Arab States and Iran have been a bit restrained. 

However COP ends, the mood may change. Iran may feel it is no longer obliged to hold back. Some of the other Middle Eastern countries have also been under immense pressure from their populations to assist the Palestinians.

Israel must be fully aware of this. It is no coincidence that Netanyahu has tried to take advantage of this gap and pounded Palestine remorselessly. Israel’s ferocious attacks appear to be a desperation trying to meet deadlines. Netanyahu gives the impression of a man in a hurry.

The public narrative is that Netanyahu is trying to achieve as much as possible before public opinion within Israel and international opinion generally forces Israel to a ceasefire. However the reality may be that Israel may be aware that the atmosphere of refrain by Muslims countries is likely to change after 12th December, the final day of COP.

The current Israel strategy has done it a great deal of damage. Israel and the Jews in general have benefitted from the sympathy poured by the world after the Holocaust. The Holocaust stands out as an unimaginable crime in world history and the world in general feels a sense of guilt,  understanding and kindness for Jews. Despite antisemitic stories, many countries have enacted antisemitic laws and pursued policies against antisemitism.

However the fury of the Israel State has shocked the world. The October 7 attacks are not endorsed by anyone and rightly condemned almost universally. However the way Israel has responded by killing nearly 20000 Palestine civilians, destroying the Palestine infrastructure, houses and hospitals has numbed this sympathy in many places. Whatever Israel says in its defence, the public narrative hasn’t helped it. Some of the responses by its spokespersons have been arrogant and lacking empathy for the civilian victims of the onslaught.

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The world had expected Israel to show the ‘wisdom’ of the victim, the scars and emotional trauma of the holocaust. The world expects Israel to be kind and benevolent. The images that have gone around the world, show another side.

Of course Israel has the right to defend itself. Israel’s history has been traumatic for thousands of years. It remains insecure with surrounding countries once attempting to remove it out of existence. This fear has hardened Israel’s resolve to survive at any cost and crush external enemies hard. However, what may be militarily right is not always strategically right in the long run.

The October 7 attacks not only shocked and alarmed the Israel public but offended people around the world. Nevertheless, the response has now turned world opinion the other way. The unsuccessful UN Security Council resolution calling for ceasefire is an example. All members except USA were for it. It is likely that in the General Assembly, Israel will have very few friends, if any.

Strategically this may not bode well for Israel. It will isolate the country for a long time. More importantly, antisemitism has now arisen exponentially despite the laws and media gags. This is not a state that Jews generally wish to see. A people scarred by the events of second world war, may find  the rising antagonism very difficult to bear.

Israel needs to act quickly. It needs to accept a ceasefire and appeal to Arab countries to isolate Hamas. It needs to seek a solution and a guarantee for its survival by asking its neighbours for understanding and intervention.

Israel now has only a few days before the Muslim anger against it comes out in the open, becomes entrenched and unshakeable. President Putin has visited UAE. It was surely not a ‘friendly’ visit nor because he had nowhere else to go. He must have offered support for any Arab response to Israel. A general war in Middle East will drag the United States and put it squarely on the other side. US will be forced to ditch Ukraine and lose once staunch allies in the Middle East.

If the revenge offensive against Israel starts, there will also be little sympathy for it around the world, given the imagery that has challenged people’s sentiments. It may be a mistake to think that Arab countries are restrained out of fear around taking on Israel. It may just be that they are letting UAE enjoy its hour of glory around COP 28 and then let rip. Putin’s visit is ominous.

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