Trump’s India Visit: Geopolitics & Strategy

US President Donald Trump’s India visit in the month of February 2020 clearly indicates that India’s alignment with the US is now complete. India’s Foreign Policy approach for the last many decades has been of multi-alignment with major partners in the most geopolitically important regions of the world. This particular visit with the visible camaraderie between the two leaders, President Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, proves to be a landmark. The defining feature has been the signing and announcement of the ‘Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership’ at the end of Trump’s visit. The much-touted trade deal between the two countries, however, remains a task to be completed over the coming years.

In terms of geostrategy of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), it marks the final acceptance of the US Indo-Pacific Region strategy for India. The practical framework or background of the Indo-Pacific strategy was already established when the US and India signed the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) and Communications, Compatibility Security Agreement (COMCASA) were signed in 2016 and 2018 respectively. The LEMOA facilitates the US with using Indian military bases in the region certain conditionalities and case by case basis. The COMCASA on the other hand, allows India to access and purchase the military communications systems of US origin like the C-17, C-130 and P8Is. A combination of these arrangements leads to increasing interoperability between the militaries of the United States and India.

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Since the Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership has been signed, it accords India status of a Major US ally and this has ramifications for India in the larger international system. India’s clear and overt tilt towards the US may cause concerns in the Russian strategic circles but the trend clearly indicates that Indian military and weapons imports from the Russia are declining and India’s recent purchases have been from France, Israel and the United States. China has gradually emerged as a major partner for Russia, because of its multiple collaborative arrangements in the field of trade, transport, industry and finance.

For Beijing, the hope to draw India into its fold through Russia and multilateral agreements like the BRICS and SCO, will eventually fade with the increasing bonhomie between the two leaders (Trump and Modi). The resultant security and strategic apparatus in the IOR or the larger Indo-Pacific under the US leadership and India as a junior partner is directed towards the Chinese is no secret either.

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With its subscription and eventual promotion of the terminology of the Indo-Pacific, a certain deviation from the Asia-Pacific of the Cold War years, India also has become part of the multilateral arrangements like the QUAD which provide tangible flesh and bone for the furtherance of the encirclement/containment of the Chinese. The leadership for the QUAD, again, comes from the United States, the other partners being Japan and Australia. The geographic location of Japan and Australia, which have been US allies since the Second World War and now India, indicates towards a certain geostrategic encirclement of China. Some international commentators have argued that the New Cold War has begun, and such new geopolitical alignments need to be factored in to make sense of the international system with Beijing as a major actor.

To conclude, the Trump visit, with all the pomp and glory aside, finally is a declaration from both New Delhi and Washington that US-India partnership is going to be a long-term affair. An important marker for South Asia from the visit is the de-hyphenation of the India-Pakistan connection from the US strategic mindset.

Indian efforts to make the international community realize that Pakistan’s support for the terrorism infrastructure in the subcontinent and outside have borne results. Donald Trump is perhaps the first president of the US to not visit both India and Pakistan on the same tour. The focus during the visit was solely on New Delhi and with that a clear signal that India is the only partner of importance for the US in the region. The expected outcome for Pakistan is that it will have to be content with the Chinese alliance, whereas India can still leverage its economic prowess and markets to maintain harmonious relations with China.

The benefits for India and US with the Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership will be manifold and will be decisive in the affairs of the Indo-Pacific as well as the Indian Ocean Region.

BIMSTEC Invites: New Delhi's Pragmatism to the Fore

Invitation to BIMSTEC, outlines Modi government’s strategy of ignoring Pakistan and proceeding ahead with a cooperative attitude in the South Asian region

Narendra Damodardas Modi is set to be sworn in for a second consecutive term for five years as the Prime Minister of India on the 30th of May 2019 with a massive mandate from the electorate. In terms of Foreign Policy, the last term was defined by a sustained emphasis on the South Asian region through the ‘Neighbourhood First’ Policy. The phrase was outlined after his invitation to the South Asian Association for Regional Coopertation (SAARC) heads of state during the inauguration of his first term.

The second inaugural ceremony will see heads of state from the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). This has significance for India’s Foreign Policy for three reasons: a) India’s stance on its immediate neighbourhood/ South Asia has been marked by tentativeness, which is set to change with continued focus under PM Modi. b) BIMSTEC members include Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand which geographically and geopolitically compliment India’s Look/Act East Policy. c) China’s mammoth Belt and Road Initiative and the Maritime Silk Road Initiative (MSRI) can be gradually countered through such steps of creating close multilateral partnerships.

The SAARC as a regional organization has regularly faced troubles in becoming a functional organization, owing to differences between India and Pakistan, its largest and most influential members which are also neighbours. To overcome this state dismal state of affairs and to avoid a situation where India’s regional ambitions become hostage to Pakistan’s nefarious designs, perhaps, a focus on BIMSTEC could be a sound strategic move.

On the one hand, India can afford to ignore Pakistan in the region and on the other, keep continuously isolating it elsewhere in the international fora on the issue of terrorism. A sustained strong willed stance on Pakistan combined with astute diplomacy can provide India with a definitive direction to its policy in the South Asian region.

The BIMSTEC has an eastward component for India. For the last 15 years and more New Delhi has indicated a shift towards the east in its foreign policy orientation, initially calling it the Look East Policy and during Modi’s first term as the Act East Policy. The BIMSTEC invitations include the geographic gateway states (Myanmar and Thailand) to South East Asia.

The long-standing cultural links with the Southeast Asian countries only enhance the strategic validity of such overtures to Myanmar and Thailand. These linkages help India’s domestic policies towards India’s Northeast as a major component of BIMSTEC is the connectivity network it is supposed to create to link the member countries. Thus, the BIMSTEC could work as an initial major step towards operationalization of the Act East policy.

Moreover, the strategic relevance of the BIMSTEC cannot be underestimated vis-à-vis the Belt and Road Initiative of China. Though the scale, scope and coverage of the BIMSTEC is smaller than that of the BRI and the MSRI, India can only match the Chinese financial capacity through investments in such ventures. In the long run, it may prove to be more effective than even the BRI and the MSRI in which projects have already faced difficulties and the Chinese intentions have come under scrutiny with allegations of ‘debt trap diplomacy’.

Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal which border India, through land or water are participating in the BRI and MSRI by allowing the Chinese to create transport infrastructure and availing hefty loans. As mentioned above, creation of a transport network, a vital aspect of the BIMSTEC can serve the important purpose of providing connectivity and cohesion in the South Asian region as well as benefit the Indian economy.

Therefore, the benefits of such gestures of inviting the BIMSTEC heads of state are many fold both for India and its neighbourhood.  This also makes geopolitical sense as majority of scholars in geostrategy have advocated for consolidation of a regional power’s position in its immediate vicinity before embarking on projection of power at a larger geographical scale say the continental scale or in the case of India, the Indian Ocean Region, which is a huge expanse.

The author earlier in the same column had indicated that ignoring the rogue neighbour’s negative work in the region and moving forward with a positive intent should be New Delhi’s approach. Invitation to BIMSTEC, outlines Modi government’s strategy of ignoring the western neighbour and proceeding ahead with a cooperative and developmental attitude in the South Asian region. It is with only such an attitude and approaches that China’s forays in the region can be overcome and path for a peaceful South Asian region can be forged.

 

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