Kunal Bose, Author at Lokmarg - News Views Blogs

The Accidental Chief Minister

By Kunal Bose 19th November 2022

Who is this Naveen Patnaik? An accidental politician thrust into the office of chief minister of Orissa (since renamed Odisha) to fill a vacuum created by the demise of Biju Patnaik, a larger than life man seen as the one who dreamed of a modern industrial state or one by choice who believed that nothing of substance would happen to the state unless the malady of corruption was rooted out and the administration was rid of slothfulness? Patnaik had occasions to say that he would have loved to spend his life as a writer – incidentally, his elder sister New York-based Gita Mehta has to her credit books such as A River Sutra, Karma Cola and Snakes and Ladders: Glimpses of Modern India – but then “you find me in this role.”

Three years after founding the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Patnaik first became chief minister of Orissa in 2000 and has won all the five Assembly elections with impressive margins to remain the country’s longest serving state government head with a kind of record that is envy of every other CM. What distinguishes Patnaik is his relentless campaign against corruption. He remains ruthless in ridding ministers and bureaucrats found indulging in making deals at the cost of the state. This crusading zeal sadly missing among most present day politicians is one of the two considerations of investors; the other is making the bureaucracy energetic enough not to sit back on investment proposals, for fancying Odisha.

A corruption free (at least to the extent that investors are not complaining about any favours they might be giving for work to be done) administration is never enough to attract investment. Among the other more compelling requirements are the quality of infrastructure, raw materials availability and supply of skilled manpower. The credit goes entirely to Biju Patnaik, the architect of a modern industrialising Odisha, that the state owns all-season, deep-draft Paradip Port, which last financial year handled a record cargo volume of 116.13 million tonnes. The big risk taker and visionary that he was, Biju Patanaik brushed aside the Centre’s objection to finance Paradip Port project and mobilised the resources on his own to give shape to his vision. The port was commissioned in March 1966, giving the state crying for industrialisation, a major break in infrastructure and logistics. Odisha saw commissioning of another major all-season, deep-draft, multi-user port when Tata Steel in equal partnership with engineering behemoth Larsen & Toubro commissioned the Dhamra Port at Bhadrok district in May 2011.

An example of the growing pull of Odisha among big ticket investors was the Adani Group taking over the port in May 2014 and now working on an ambitious plan to speedily ramp up cargo handling capacity to 300 million tonnes in phases. The state has several other minor ports, including one at Gopalpur. This is as it should be since the state has a coastline of around 450 kms. Paradip Port is the reason that in an adjacent area Indian Oil Corporation built a 15 million tonne refinery at an investment of ₹34,555 crore.

A senior Bhubaneswar based editor of an Odia daily says: “Biju Babu used to say prosperity will remain elusive unless we have industries. In pursuit of industrialisation, he wanted his bureaucrats to stop indulging in writing long notes. Instead, he wanted them to become agents of change, particularly in creating an investor friendly environment. Not only has Naveen acquired that trait of his father, but he has gone a step forward in demanding of them to deliver results without anyone pointing a finger at them. Big man Biju Babu was forgiving in many ways. Naveen has zero tolerance for corruption and also for incompetence. If you ask me I will say Naveen’s approach to administration has brought a breath of fresh air in national politics.”

Unlike many opposition leaders, including West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee, Naveen hasn’t so far betrayed any national ambition. His focus remains to place Odisha among the country’s highly industrialised states, based largely on its rich mineral resources. No doubt, Naveen is succeeding in reaching that goal. He has also stood out among opposition stalwarts in another way. Being a believer in the country’s federal system, he doesn’t think it proper to go out of the way to criticise either prime minister Narendra Modi or the union government. That way he commands the respect of people at large. Investors in particular don’t want to be caught in the cross fire of centre-state quarrels. His clear instruction to his ministers and senior bureaucrats is that in case they have a problem with the centre, then they should make all efforts to resolve it through discussion instead of making it public at the outset.

Naveen expectedly campaigned hard during the 2019 assembly elections that coincided with the Lok Sabha poll crisscrossing the state. As has now become the norm in all opposition run states, it is on the strength of popularity of the chief minister that candidates of ruling party BJD secures votes. In the last elections, BJD won 112 of 147 seats, albeit down five seats over last time. What distinguished Naveen’s campaign was that he never foul-mouthed Modi. He is too civilised to come down to that level. Critics will say Naveen’s realpolitik is based on practical consideration and it has got nothing to do with ideology or principles. Whatever it is, this honourable disposition of the chief minister may be the reason why central clearances for projects relating to Odisha generally come through in time.

Ports are one component of infrastructure. But Odisha being India’s most minerals rich state, ports provide a gateway for exports of iron ore, bauxite (alumina), ferro-alloys, etcetera and also ex-im of several minerals, either not found at all such as nickel or not in sufficient quantities such as metallurgical coal and metals. In the past decade and a half, Odisha has made impressive strides in building multi-lane highways. But what the state urgently needs is much improved railway network and rakes availability. In the past many years, power plants, including the ones captive to industries such as aluminium smelters, ferro-alloys and steel had to do with restricted supply of coal because of rake shortages and production disruptions at coal mines during the monsoon. A feeling prevails in the state that since the railway minister Ashwini Vaishnaw, a retired Odisha cadre IAS officer, has good appreciation of the state’s requirements of rail services, rapid improvements are to happen. Air connectivity between the capital city Bhubaneswar and the rest of the country continues to improve with more flights being added periodically.

Investors are basically eyeing the state’s rich mineral resources for processing into metals. Tata Steel is here for a very long time as producer of iron ore. But for some years, it is running a steel mill at Kalinganagar, which is being substantially expanded to 8 million tonnes. The Jindal family through JSPL has a large carbon steel plant and through JSL the country’s largest stainless steel unit in Odisha. The largest Jindal family controlled JSW Steel has in the meantime received environmental clearances to set up a greenfield 13.2 million tonne mill at Paradip at an estimated investment of Rs65,000 crore. Now ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel joint venture proposing an investment of over 1 lakh crore to build a 24 million tonne steel mill in Kendrapara district has the promise of a unique venture in terms of size, promising to be the world’s largest single location plant and use of green technology. The chief minister himself has played an important role in bringing the project to Odisha.

The Adani Group has readied investment of Rs57,575 crore to build a 4 million tonne alumina refinery and also a 30 million tonne iron ore project along with commitment to use as much green energy as possible. Anil Agarwal shepherded Vedanta Group, which already has a massive presence in the aluminium chain in Odisha is once again investing Rs25,000 crore for capacity expansion in white metal and ferrochrome. Besides minerals-based industries, the chief minister wants Odisha to become a major destination for small and medium enterprises adding value to locally produced aluminium and steel. National Aluminium Company is soon to commission an aluminium park at Angul where the units will have the benefit of supply of molten metal from the next door NALCO smelter. Like that a park for plastic products will be built. Leave aside industries, the capital city Bhubaneswar, expanding in all directions, is fast emerging as an important hub for education and health, in a way taking the wind out of Kolkata’s sails.

As most of the promised mega, medium and small projects are being implemented, the state though now self-reliant in electricity will have to create new power generation capacity. Being richly endowed in thermal coal, the natural tendency will be to build coal-fired electricity capacity. Mercifully, Patnaik has set his priorities right in inviting investors to derive energy from green sources such as solar, wind and mini and micro hydel units. The sun shines bright on Odisha for most of the year and it is also blessed with a long coastline. Therefore, building solar and wind energy is not a big challenge for the state. The installed power capacity in Odisha in 2021 March end was 8,594 MW out of 382 gigawatts for the country. People caring for the environment will expect Naveen Patnaik to secure sufficient private investment in all forms of green energy so that pollution caused by burning of coal is capped at a certain level.

Decarbonising The Economic Growth

By Kunal Bose 7th November 2022

What will be the country’s grid electricity demand at any point in future will be largely decided by gross domestic product (GDP) growth, which is likely to vary from a low of 6.8 per cent to a high of 8 per cent. Past experience says higher the GDP growth, greater will be industry’s percentage wise share in electricity use. Based on a platform of 7.5 per cent average GDP growth, India’s leading energy and resources institute TERI says in a research paper that the country’s 2030 electricity demand will be between 2254 TWh (terawatt hour) and 2533 TWh.

High levels of sustained inclusive economic growth the country needs to combat poverty that even after 75 years of independence exists on a disturbingly large scale. (In an April 2020 brief, the World Bank found 176 million Indians were living in extreme poverty in 2015. The Bank adds that Covid-19 pandemic had resulted in the swelling of ranks of poor, particularly in rural areas.) The fact also remains growth in India and many other countries has come at a great cost to the environment.

From unrestrained mining in spite of claims of tight oversight by government agencies to the making and application of harmful chemicals to burning of fossil fuels, particularly coal for electricity generation to still rampant use of plastic as packaging material all are contributing to environment sullying to the extent that all east Asian countries are now experiencing more floods, droughts and earthquakes. Earlier this year, record breaking floods resulting from prolonged severe heat wave followed by unusual volumes of rains swept across much of Pakistan. The floods submerged entire villages, displacing millions and damaging critical infrastructure. A human tragedy of the worst kind, nearly 2,000 people perished during the four-month long deluge. The frightening Pakistani flood experience is unnerving for the whole of East Asia.

In the meantime, climate change continues to impinge on the economy, though not immediately visible, at an accelerated rate. Unarguably, India being largely dependent on electricity derived from coal, the filthiest of fossil fuels, the environment has to bear the brunt of high carbon emissions by thermal plants. This is in spite of incorporation of many new mitigating technologies in such plants and washing of coal to reduce ash content ahead of its burning in furnaces. Whatever that is, environmental salvation and well-being of the masses will depend on combined efforts of the government and the private sector to greening of energy supply by rapidly creating capacity of all kinds of renewable energy and also shedding inhibitions about nuclear power plant installations. Global consensus among energy experts is that for transition to a less and less carbon emitting power network, nuclear energy will have to have its rightful share.

A December report by the government think tank Niti Aaayog saying that coal-based power generation capacity in the country is likely to peak at around 250 gigawatt by the end of this decade or immediately thereafter. Moreover, power generation from this source will peak a few years later. The anti-coal lobby also draws comfort from the fact that power groups are beating a retreat from building new coal fired thermal units in the face of highly competitive power tariffs of renewable energy. It will not be a surprise if quite a few of coal based power plants in pre-construction pipeline are abandoned.

But then what is not deniable is that India has for very long stuck to coal to meet its growing power requirements, knowing well its ill effects on the environment. The country’s thermal power capacity is 235,929 MW in which the share of coal is over 86 per cent. The rest is from lignite, diesel and gas. Such major reliance on coal, however obnoxious the fuel may appear to anyone caring for the environment, is because of its abundant local availability. India’s coal resources are an estimated 319.02 billion tonnes of which proved reserves are 148 billion tonnes. Naturally, coal being by far the largest in the mining sector, its production in the country was a high 778.19 million tonnes in 2021-22. Even then so high is the power sector’s dependence on this fossil fuel that last year the country had to import 209 million tonnes of coal to meet demand.

ALSO READ: As Climate Change Comes Calling

Thankfully, the combination of government policy encouragement that includes subsidies and farsightedness of private enterprises – one may recall the trailblazing role played by the late Tulsi Tanty and his Suzlon group in promoting green energy – is now seeing the country firing on all cylinders to build all kinds of renewable energy. According to global database agency Statista, India has so far built renewable (small hydro, biomass power, urban and industrial waste power and solar and wind energy) energy capacity of 106,374.63 MW, major hydro capacity of 46,525 MW and nuclear capacity of 6,780 MW. India more recently, however, dropped the 500 GW of renewable energy target and also a billion tonne of carbon emissions committed at COP26 by 2030. But it will still strive to have 50 per cent energy supply from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.

This is seen as an attempt by the government to retain the flexibility of commissioning new coal fired power plants to achieve the projected 820 GW total capacity in case the growth in green fuels based power capacity falls short of target. India is just one of the countries in Asia where coal remains the king. Other fossil fuels such as oil and gas also have a significant share in the energy mix of some countries in the continent such as Japan, Thailand and Bangladesh. India is the world’s third largest emitter of greenhouse gases next only to China and the US.

This gives an idea of the country housing large numbers of polluting industries, including power plants and the big population of polluting vehicles, which have lived their useful life. Undeniably the political will to get rid of such polluters is building up over the last few years as is evident in the government’s vehicles scrappage policy. It, however, remains to be seen how forcefully the policy is enforced and how quickly the government brings industrial units polluting air and water to heel.

The point is if Beijing and Chinese provincial authorities could bring polluting industries to book why should not the powers that be in India be able to do the same. Perhaps what stops the government from acting firm are job losses when not enough new employment is created. Compulsions such as this and uncertainties about securing funding for the ambitious green energy growth are likely the reasons for New Delhi to set a zero-carbon target date of 2070, two decades later than developed economies of the West as also Japan.

Xi Jinping, who was re-anointed the country’s supreme leader the other day, made a pledge in the UN General Assembly in September 2020 that his country would be peaking CO2 emissions ahead of 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. If Xi commitment is honoured, then global warming would get lowered by 0.2-0.3 degree centigrade by 2060. In the meantime, Mukesh Ambani, chairman of Reliance Industries, which is committed to build massive renewable energy capacity, including green hydrogen at Dhirubhai Ambani Green Energy Giga Complex at Jamnagar in Gujarat, said: “Decarbonising the global economy will require multi-decade investments in green and clean energy to the tune of $5 trillion per year globally.” But this offers “unprecedented opportunities” for multi-decade growth for energy groups such as Reliance and Adani.

Pushing Back The Index, Not Hunger

By Kunal Bose 27th October 2022

This ado over India finding a lowly rank of 107 out of 121 countries in the much acclaimed Global Hunger Index (GHI) compiled jointly by Concern Worldwide and Welthungerhilfe is entirely avoidable. Understandably the powers that be in New Delhi wallowing in an unrestrained promotion of the country achieving the highest rate of GDP (gross domestic product) growth among all major economies in the world soon after overcoming the Covid-19 pandemic economic dislocations were shaken to the core when the recently released GHI report for 2022 revealed that all the neighbouring countries have fared better than India in nourishment and child health and mortality.

Whatever way New Delhi reacts to the report, the credentials of the two agencies based in Ireland and Germany cannot be questioned. Yes exceptions are taken about the methodology of inquiry, particularly relating to children – incidentally, three of the four criteria for determining hunger relate to how well or badly the children are faring in terms of child stunting, child wasting and child mortality. But identical criteria have been applied to all the 121 countries covered in the report. Hasn’t UNICEF said that the time between pregnancy and first three years when human brain is highly susceptible to environmental influences is critical for a child’s growth and development? For children to become healthy adults, they need nourishing food, nurturing care and health services. It is on this premise that GHI focus on child care will readily find justification.

GHI report claims that based on marshalling of sufficient data and its processing, the ranking and scores of the countries were given. As it would happen, the report shows India with a score of 29.1 finds itself in a zone of “serious hunger” and also not far from “alarming hunger.” Let’s see how have India’s neighbouring countries fared in terms of ranking and index score? China, which over the last many years gave priority to universal nourishment and child health, finds a place among the best performing 17 countries with a low GHI score of less than five indicating a low level of hunger.

Leave alone China, the landlocked Nepal ranks 81 in the 2022 GHI table with an index score of 19.1. The respective figures for Bangladesh are 84 and 19.6 and for Pakistan 99 and 26.1. Why only the countries with which we share borders, Sri Lanka has a ranking of 64 with index score of 13.6 indicating moderate hunger. Even while it is plagued by unending political turmoil, Myanmar got a ranking of 71 with index score of 15.6 also denoting moderate hunger. The only country in the region with a ranking and index score worse than India’s is war ravaged Afghanistan. This is no consolation for India, which nurses the ambition of becoming a developed country by 2047.

But will India by then be able to clear the threshold of high-income country in terms of economic indicators. The World Bank has recently updated the per capita income criteria for high-income countries to more than $13,205. Compared to this, India’s per capita income in 2021 was $2,277.4. What has particular significance for poverty and hunger is encapsulated in a report by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) saying that a total of 56 million Indians slipped into poverty during the 2020 pandemic. The income destroying Indian experience as that of many other countries of the poor such as daily wage earners because of Coronavirus pandemic proved to be a “historically large shock” to poverty reduction campaign, says a World Bank report. In the absence of a national consumption expenditure survey following the junking of the 2017-18 report (conducted by National Sample Survey since merged with National Statistical Office) on quality concerns, it remains a subject of guess as to how many Indians are surviving below the poverty line.

ALSO READ: Pulling India Out Of Poverty Pit

A dispassionate reading of the GHI report in the above context would have helped in avoiding the controversy. The report gains in authenticity since it makes extensive use of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), 2019-21, authored by the health and family welfare ministry. Over 600,000 households feature in the survey. Author and columnist Chetan Bhagat, who has taken pains to make a thorough reading of GHI report and NFHS-5 report writes: “In this 700-plus page survey (NFHS-5), there is data for India’s child stunting and child wasting rates. It says 36% of Indian kids are stunted… and 19% of the children are wasted.” Are these high figures of stunting and wasting of Indian children because of WHO guidance prescribing that the median height for a five-year old boy should be 110.3cm? The two standard deviation point is 101.6cm and any child found below that height is described as stunted. Bhagat rightly raises the point whether a single standard should be applied to all children across the world or “ethnicity, race and genetics” of Indian children be considered when assessing their nourishment and health.

How has India come out in the latest GHI report? It says as the percentage of people in the country not having access to sufficient calories is up from 14.6 during 2018-20 to 16.3 in the period 2019-21, 224.3 million Indians out of a global total of 828 million are labelled undernourished. Child wasting is described as the share of less than five year old children who weigh less for their height showing “acute under-nutrition.” On this also, India has come out badly in the report since the child wasting rate has risen to 19.3% from 17.15% in 2000. Child mortality indicating children dying before their fifth birthday is often caused by a “fatal mix of inadequate nutrition and unhealthy environment” they find themselves in. Since 2014, child mortality is down here to 3.3% from 4.6% and child stunting to 35.5% from 38.7%. According to GHI, there are four kinds of hunger prevailing in the world from low to moderate to serious to alarming and to extremely alarming and India with a score of 29.1 finds itself in the serious category.

Expectedly, New Delhi has rubbished the GHI report saying: “The report is not only disconnected from ground reality but also chooses to deliberately ignore efforts made by the Government to ensure food Security for the population especially during the Covid Pandemic. Taking a one-dimensional view, the report lowers India’s rank based on the estimate of Proportion of Undernourished (PoU) population for India at 16.3%. The FAO estimate is based on ‘Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES)’ Survey Module conducted through Gallop World Poll, which is an ‘opinion poll’ based on ‘8 questions’ with a sample size of 3,000 respondents. The data collected from a minuscule sample for a country of India’s size through FIES has been used to compute the PoU value for India which is not only wrong and unethical, it also reeks of obvious bias. The publishing agencies of the Global Hunger report… have evidently not done their due diligence before releasing the report.”

Challenging the way the two agencies set out to measure hunger, it says the report is to be faulted on “serious methodological issues.” When three of the four indicators used for calculating the hunger index are related to child health, they cannot be in any way representative of how the entire population is faring in terms of wellbeing. New Delhi has also taken exception to the very small sample size of 3,000 for making an estimate of PoU population. Whatever shortcomings the government may see in GHI findings, the fact will not be denied that it has a big task in hand to reduce hunger and give the children of poor families a better health to allow them to grow into healthy and productive citizens.

Remote Tribal Village In Chhattisgarh Gets Piped Water

Is India’s Water Mission A Pipe Dream?

By Kunal Bose 11th October 2022

India, the world’s second most populous country trailing China by a thin margin, hosts 18% of global population in a land area of 3.28 million square kilometre equalling 2.4% of earth surface. To add to the disadvantage of high population density in many parts of the country, it has only 4% of world water resources. No wonder, India figures among the world’s most water-stressed countries.

The government think tank Niti Aayog has made an obvious admission in a report that a large number of Indians living in villages, small towns and cities remain exposed to “high to extreme water stress.” Not only are people perforce doing with insufficient water for drinking and other daily chores, in most cases what is available is not actually safe for human consumption. The point is buttressed by the BJP led government recently informing the Rajya Sabha that in almost all districts in the country groundwater, the principal source of water supply, contains more than permissible toxic metals making it poisonous. From arsenic to chromium to cadmium to uranium to iron, all these are found in more than permissible limits in drinking water whose consumption is health damaging.

According to the Ministry of Jal Shakti, over 80% of the country’s population uses groundwater, which itself is a depleting resource, a cause of major concern. When so many, including new born babies and children are drinking water with traces of toxic metals and chemicals, a major fallout inevitably is widespread waterborne diseases that claim hundreds of thousands lives. The more common waterborne diseases in India are: amoebic dysentery, hepatitis A, cholera, typhoid, malaria, giardiasis and shigellosis.

All this apart, the presence of arsenic raises the risk of skin diseases and cancer, drinking water with high levels of iron over long periods could cause Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s by disturbing the nervous system and kidney ailments could be traced to cadmium in water. For over half the country’s 1.4 billion people, their home is in villages and their falling sick results in pressure building up on the rickety healthcare system in rural India.

That shortages of water and its stinking quality – as much as 70% of water here is contaminated – have assumed crisis proportions become clear from following research findings: (i) Around 85% of rural population and half the urban population fulfil their daily needs by using groundwater, which continues to fall annually by 10 to 25 mm; (ii) Alarmingly, India is the world’s largest user of groundwater extracting more than the US and China put together; (iii) Unless corrective steps are taken on an urgent basis, as much as 40% of the country’s population would possibly have no access to drinking water by 2030. In any case, according to Niti Aayog developed composite water management index, India’s water demand will far exceed supply by 2050; (iv) As is experienced in many parts of the world, the quality of groundwater is compromised with its depletion. Quality fall is particularly acute where there is high population density and also in places of intensive cultivation drawing irrigation water. The green revolution of the 1960s and use of high-yielding seeds for a variety of food and commercial crops have led to high use of groundwater. Availability of subsidised electricity for farmers in many states has worked as an incentive to be indiscriminate in using groundwater. At least 65% of farm irrigation comes from groundwater; and (v) No wonder World Resources Institute finds India among 17 countries in the world experiencing extreme water stress. All these problems will get further exacerbated by climate change, already experienced in growing frequency of floods and droughts across the country.

New Delhi and also the states, which primarily are responsible for making water available to citizens will do well to remember as climate change is making rainfall pattern increasingly unpredictable – the current season is witness to that with unusually high October rains likely to affect the rice crop –importance of groundwater will be felt more, underpinning its replenishment. A World Bank study says groundwater in almost two-thirds of the country’s districts has hit threateningly low levels. Expectedly, fall in groundwater levels has is a contributor to contamination.

The study bares the fact that poverty is 9-10% higher in districts where groundwater level has sunk below 8 meters and the phenomenon makes small farmers particularly vulnerable to economic distress. It says: “If current trends persist, at least 25% of India’s agriculture will be at risk.” Water scarcity is heightening with every passing year. In the current worsening water scene, the authorities must not lose sight of two realities: First, India is one of the largest water consuming countries per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). Second, among the most water-intense economies, the country is also the largest net exporter of virtual water, that is, the amount of water that goes into making of products exported, from rice to wheat to textiles. Poor appreciation of the crisis that loomed over decades and the resulting policy pitfalls have for long exposed the majority of countrymen to very low and poor quality water.

ALSO READ: ‘Water Harvesting is The Only Way Forward’

India nurses aspiration to become a $5 trillion economy by 2029 through annual GDP growth of 9% and also covet a place among developed countries in 25 years (Narendra Modi announcement from ramparts of the Red Fort at last Independence Day celebrations). All that is fine, but the country must at the same time seriously address the issue of saving new born babies and children dying at a rate higher than global average. Much of that mortality is because of drinking of sub-standard water. Diarrhoea is a common ailment in India, especially among babies and children.

Professor Michael Kremer won the 2019 Nobel for economics along with Abhijeet Banerjee and Esther Duflo for developing an “innovative experimental approach to alleviating global poverty.” The three economists have often worked together over more than two decades in several low and middle income countries on small and specific problems through carefully designed field experiments and recommended the “best solutions.” At a recent water and health related conclave in Delhi, Professor Kremer said an important finding of his field study in a number of districts was that nearly 30% infant deaths could be prevented by making available safe drinking water to family households. Sustainable access to potable water delivered through pipes could cut one in every four deaths of children, says Kremer. But water, subject to regular testing at sources and final delivery points of prescribed quality and quantity, will have to be supplied.

Coinciding with Independence Day celebrations in 2019, the government made a bold but highly relieving decision that under the Jal Jeevan (water is life) Mission (JJM) attempts will be made to build a robust enough water infrastructure in rural India, where over half the country’s population lives so that every household and public institution such as schools and panchayat offices get potable drinking water through pipe by 2024. JJM proposes supply of 55 litres of water per person per day in every rural household. But as unfortunately happened, the country was hit by Covid-19 pandemic triggering multiple lockdowns which forced labourers to return to their villages, suffering untold privation. Laying ductile iron (DI) pipes for conveyance of water from principal sources to distribution points is highly labour intensive in spite of use of all the high-powered machines to cut trenches through the ground.

Therefore, en masse labourer migration to villages and restrictions on assembly of people in the open during the Covid resulted in serious delays in JJM work execution. DI pipe laying work since has resumed in force. But for the Covid related time lost, Tata Metaliks managing director Sandeep Kumar says: “I don’t think JJM giving piped water connection to every rural household will be completed before 2030.” (Incidentally, Tata Metaliks, a Tata Group constituent, is among the country’s leading producers of DI pipes. The other industry leaders are Welspun Corporation, Electrosteel Castings, Jindal Saw and Rashmi Metaliks. This industry has enough capacity to generate export surplus after fulfilling domestic demand rising annually at the rate of 12%. Moreover, some Indian groups own pipe manufacturing units in West Asia, Europe and the US.)

New Delhi is, however, showing its commitment to make up for as much of the lost time as possible by heftily raising the 2022-23 budget allocation for JJM to Rs60,000 crore from the earlier year’s Rs40,000 crore. The enormity of challenge in providing Har Ghar Jal through pipe becomes evident from this set of statistics of Jal Shakti ministry: Of the total rural households of 191.467 million, 32.363 million had tap water connection at JJM launch. Since then, the coverage has risen to 102.11 million, still leaving millions of households without piped drinking water connection.

Alongside the attempts to improve safe drinking water in rural India, the government cannot any further postpone the task of relieving the water stress of households in urban cities and small towns. Parallel to providing clean drinking water universally, the government will have to take forward the programme of linking of rivers and storage capacity of fresh water that comes as nature’s gift by way of rains, which have a seasonal pattern about them with 50% precipitation happening in just 15 days. Unfortunately, in the absence of preservation of the precious resource, most of the rain water goes into the seas through the rivers.

Making Light of Moonlighting

By Kunal Bose 23rd September 2022

Unable to put up with angst that management interferences in editorial issues caused, the legendary Indian editor Samar Sen left the cushy job with a leading publishing house in the mid-1960s to start a highly Left oriented but classy at the same time weekly magazine Now that became an immediate hit here and abroad. How could that be so since all that Sen could count on was the part-time editorial support in the office from Utpal Dutta, who subsequently became a big theatre and cinema personality? The magic was large scale moonlighting that several assistant editors at the then highly acclaimed The Statesman and also a few in the Times of India did for Now and subsequently for Frontier.

Philosopher economist Dr Ashok Mitra who then was working with the government first in the capacity of chairman of Agricultural Prices Commission and then as economic adviser to the prime minister, would write the famous Calcutta Notebook and also editorials for the two magazines without government approval. Why did they do that for gratis? For, the newspapers that the contributing journalists worked to earn a living did not provide the platform to write freely. Dr Mitra used the publication to tell the readers about the unacceptable kind of existing inequity and what was the way out, besides occasionally writing in his inimitable style about literature, music et al.

To return to The Statesman of the past. There then came a moronic CEO who nursed the ambition of seizing the editor’s chair and would spy on the journalists he suspected of moonlighting and then harass them to end.

That advertising people and journalists have always indulged in moonlighting in their spare time to earn some extra money has never been a secret. (Take the case of Nityapriya Ghosh, famous essayist and expert on Rabindranath Tagore, who through his entire career first as an adman and then as a corporate communicator practised moonlighting on an unbelievable scale writing for the country’s leading English and Bengali dailies. No doubt, the government and also company managements in the past didn’t find anything wrong in the practice if some restraints are exercised by practitioners. But times have changed.)

The house in perpetuity will remain divided about the ethicality of using the free time to do some work by people holding regular jobs. Moonlighting is practised globally with employers taking stands moving from wholesale acceptance to rigid disapproval. Oxford English Dictionary defines it as “do a second job, especially secretly and at night, in addition to one’s regular employment.” Whatever it is, moonlighting always has a veil of secrecy about it and carries a certain of risk of being found out and then paying a price for that.

An official of a leading Delhi based chamber of commerce says on condition of anonymity “employers may be suspecting that many in their payrolls are accepting gig assignments from third parties for execution during off hours, but rarely they got caught in the process. How much control should an employer have over his/her employees? No question about employees falling in line with office rules and doing an honest day’s job. What also goes without saying that in their free time, they must not accept any assignment from competition or share any information about the company with outsiders that may compromise its interest.” But such restrictions that come with full time jobs are more honoured in their breach than in observance, thanks to the growing ranks of gig workers.

Boutique ad agencies, which by definition are all small outfits in some cases without regular offices are generally run by senior executives who quit jobs in big agencies to strike out on their own in the belief of making a success of their ventures. Their business is pivoted on moonlighting. They outsource most work from preparing presentation material to copy writing to art work to outsiders working for big agencies and rewarding them handsomely. The ones doing such work do so with clear conscience that the work-order their own agency has already lost to the concerned boutique agency. Whatever that is, gig workers will get paid for their efforts but they can’t claim credit for the work done. In India, gigging is practised on a large scale by school and college teachers who would not spare a thought in charging usurious rates for giving private lessons to students and at the same time do regular classes more as a routine. In this profession all that is done openly. The nobleness in teaching has been sacrificed at the altar of commerce.

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Bangalore-based Alok Seghal who retired as vice president of a leading ad agency a couple of years ago and continues to do copywriting as a freelancer for old associates and friends says: “I shall neither confirm nor deny if I ever indulged in moonlighting while I was in regular service. At the same time, I shall confirm that ad executives doing outside work for a consideration is rampant in the industry. Ad agencies will also not stop from utilising the services of pliant business journalists on the sly.”

Here in the last case ethical issues are involved. Besides advertising, in consultancy services, especially finance and engineering, moonlighting is quite common and also largely tolerated by principal employers. Doing work for others using time over which employers should ideally have no control while holding a permanent job somewhere else has always been in vogue but is largely overlooked for comfort of the two parties. Actions are taken when limits are crossed like doing it stealthily sitting in office desk or when office information is compromised. But why suddenly a subject of which people are ever aware but thought it wise to look the other way is generating so much heat and media attention?

All this is happening because some leading IT (information technology) companies, including Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services and IBM have raised their shrill voices against accepting outside assignments by staff members, though to be executed using their free time. No doubt, work from home (WFH), which virtually became the norm for IT companies and other industries during the two and a half years of Covid-19 movement restrictions has spawned a big gig economy with more and more white collar workers participating in moonlighting with abandon much to the discomfiture of regular employers. Even as Covid scare faded and most companies wanted their employees to return to the regular desk, many refused to give up WFH not willing to disengage from side hustles. A representative survey of people working in IT&ITES done by Kotak Institutional Equities found 42 per cent of respondents saying that they would either change jobs or quit if they are denied WFH facility. Not surprising since a whopping 65 per cent survey participants confirmed of their awareness of moonlighting in the industry. Sadly norms of decent behaviour are crossed in many cased as revealed in the survey such as using the office email for doing gig work or holding several active provident fund accounts amounting to doing more than one job at the same time.

When margins for the IT industry has come under pressure due to the Western economies experiencing recession, low rates of growth and inflation all at the same time and its constituents have to live with high rates of attrition, it is no wonder some employers will react very strongly against “two-timing and double lives.” Wipro chairman Rishad Premji says: “There is a lot of clatter about people moonlighting in the tech industry. This is cheating – plain and simple.” He finds full support from IBM India MD Sandip Patel who says: “I am with Rishad on moonlighting. Notwithstanding what people can do with the rest of their time, it’s not ethical to do that.” In the meantime, Infosys told its employees in an email “dual employment is not permitted as per the employee handbook and the code of conduct. As clearly stated in your offer letter, you agree not to take employment, whether full-time or part time… without the consent of Infosys.” But to the relief of gig workers the industry remains sharply divided on moonlighting.

For example, Tech Mahindra MD & CEO CP Gurnani has made the startling observation that his company is in the process of formulating a policy which will let employees to pursue more than one job at a time. He recently said at a conference: “Most of us (IT companies) have efficiency and productivity targets that are measurable. If someone meets the productivity and efficiency norms, and wants to make an extra buck, as long as he is not committing a fraud and not doing something that is against the values and ethics that the company upholds, then I don’t have a problem.” Many of the new technology driven companies are not disposed to punishing the employees found to have accepted second assignments. In fact, cofounder of CashKaro and EarnKaro Swati Bhargava told the Economic Times: “Moonlighting can be a great way to improve skills one doesn’t get the time to practise during their full-time job.” Bhargava will look the other way when employees at her companies accept gig assignments if these don’t compromise their “commitment” to principal work. The debate is on. The last word on moonlighting remains to be said.

The Adani Ascendency Phenomenon

By Kunal Bose 9th September 2022

Jawaharlal Nehru consciously avoided being seen close to any of the large business houses of his times. In their ingeniousness, those houses successfully found their way through the labyrinth of the much feared and despised Indian bureaucracy and political establishment. The bureaucracy’s vice-like grip over economic administration remained unchanged for a good number of decades since Independence. At the same time, a few brave hearts, determined to make it big despite the infamous licence Raj and the concomitant bureaucratic cobwebs, managed to get into the inner court of the country’s third Prime Minister Indira Gandhi (1966 till October 31 1984, except for 1977-1980).

In Mrs Gandhi’s personal secretary and confidante extraordinaire RK Dhawan, wielding enormous power, three business men in particular – one from Bombay (Mumbai renaming hadn’t happened then) and two from Calcutta (since renamed Kolkata), found a friend who wouldn’t stop doing anything for them.

What was not ordinarily possible till Dr Manmohan Singh, under the prime ministership of Narasimha Rao rolled out a series of economic reforms, necessitated by a grave economic crisis, Dhawan would ensure that nothing would come in the way of securing for his three loyal friends what they wanted. Many would expectedly take exception to the favours thus extended selectively. At the same time, if the three were not enabled to overcome the hold that the then industry leading groups had on private sector economic activities, the country would not be experiencing some extraordinary entrepreneurship marvels of present times.

The worst thing that the industry leaders did in the licence Raj was to deny the possibility of aspiring businessmen to enter some industries by pre-empting licences all of which they would never implement. Business men cosying up to politicians and bureaucrats is not, however, unique to India. It happens everywhere with powerful lobbies working in developed countries on behalf of businesses. Civic society will frown on the practice and media will take note from time to time when limits are crossed and distribution of favours become disturbingly so.

Corporate governance in India was an unknown phenomenon almost till the end of last century. And till the non-resident Indian industrialist Swraj Paul (earned peerage in the UK since) made infructuous attempts to buy into two Delhi based groups – Escorts and the diversified DCM – in the early 1980s, people in general were not aware that in majority of cases families with equity holding of less than 10 per cent stayed in full control of companies. Abuses naturally followed with impunity. Today provoked or on occasions without provocation, the seemingly uninterested politician Rahul Gandhi will invoke two groups Reliance and Adani for amassing great wealth helped by their proximity to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It will not be anybody’s case that proximity to the powers that be doesn’t help in running businesses. Great risk taking capacity, foresight, execution of very large projects without time and cost escalation, ability to get into sunrise sectors ahead of others and capacity to hire the best talents and empower them count a lot more than connection with people in power.

It will not be out of place to recall here that once when Pranab Mukherjee was told by a party colleague in a somewhat disapproving tone that the Ambanis always got favoured treatment from him, his retort was “get me any number like them, I can assure you I shall extend them the same kind of courtesy.” Once again the message that came out from that unofficial conversation is that knowing people in right places is no guarantee for success in business.

Let’s take the case of the Birla family, which once had free access to Mahatma Gandhi then all through with the ruling political establishment and also the principal opposition parties. In spite of that proximity, it is only one branch of the family headed by Kumar Mangalam Birla that counts today. Businesses of a number of leading groups of the past have either shrank in size beyond recognition or just withered away, thereby underlining the point political patronage is no guarantee of success. Consider several information technology companies, including TCS, Infosys, Wipro and HCL Technologies acquiring global status without any government help or the over a century old Tata Group with presence in automobile to steel to retail reinventing itself to greater glories.

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The country will never be short of people who will always see the presence of an invisible hand (in the present case distribution of patronage by the government) in the meteoric rise of Adani Group. Such vigilance, if it is informed is good for the economy and general public who responding to sustained campaign by official agencies make investment in the equity market either directly or through mutual funds. Investors find reassurance when promoters themselves have substantial holdings in companies. As said earlier, Indian promoters per se managed to exercise total control over companies by pegging their ownership of equity capital as little as possible till the late 1980s. In that kind of environment, promoters enjoyed running companies putting all risk on banks, financial institutions and general investors. But shaken by Swraj Paul episode and in order stave off takeover attempts, all Indian business men started raising holdings in their promoted companies.

What about Gautam Adani, who starting with trading in commodities in the late 1980s made big strides in infrastructure (roads, airports, seaports), energy (both coal fired and renewable) and electricity transmission, gas distribution, mining, FMCG and real estate? Bombay Stock Exchange says promoter holdings in Adani group companies are like this: the flagship Adani Enterprises 72.28 per cent; Adani Ports & SEZ 66.02 per cent, Adani Power 74.97 per cent, Adani Transmission 73.87 per cent; Adani Green Energy 60.5 per cent, Adani Total Gas 74.8 per cent and in the recently listed Adani Wilmar 89.74 per cent.

Remarkably all Adani group company shares are doing very well with their prices continuing to appreciate a lot more than progress of BSE and NSE indexes. A report published the other day by CreditSights, a Fitch arm saying Adani group is “deeply overleveraged” as it is predominantly using debts to invest aggressively across its existing as well as new businesses. Giving a warning, the report says: “In the worst case scenario, overly ambitious debt-funded growth plans could eventually spiral into a massive debt trap, and possibly culminate into a distressed situation or default of one or more group companies.” No doubt many horizontally fast expanding groups here and elsewhere have run into debt traps from where they could never come out. At the same time, there are quite a few examples in India, more importantly the Tata Group and Reliance Industries, both not very long ago carrying the burden of debt mountains, have been able to achieve comfortable debt equity ratio through sustained improvements in cash flow and EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.) After having recorded profitable growth of its mobile telephony and data delivery and retail businesses and also announced massive plans for development of green energy and hydrogen, the outlook for Reliance improved so much that Mukesh Ambani could sell small parcels of equity at substantial premium to global giants such as GIC of Singapore, TPG of the US and Aramco of Saudi Arabia. The funds thus mobilised are used both to pare debts and further grow business.

The Economic Times, which saw Adani reply to CreditSights on its describing the group as “deeply overleveraged”, says in a report: “The group’s net debt was ₹1.6 lakh crore by the end of the June quarter this fiscal year, compared with ₹50,200 crore of run-rate EBITDA. Leverage as measured by gross debt to EBITDA ratio was at 3.92x, reflecting a drop in the debt level, Adani group said. The group’s gross debt was ₹1.8 lakh crore.” Whatever Adani may say, funding this scorching rate of growth through greenfield ventures and acquisition of the kind Swiss giant Holcim’s cement business in India for $10.5 billion – in one giant stroke Adani becomes the country’s second largest cement maker after Birla’s Ultratech – will remain a subject of concern.

The other day Gautam Adani made a startling announcement that his group will be building the country’s largest single location alumina refinery of annual capacity of 4 million tonnes in Odisha. (Alumina is an intermediate chemical derived from bauxite mineral used in smelters to make aluminium) The selection of Odisha is natural, for the eastern state owns over half the country’s bauxite deposits of 3.9 billion tonnes. No doubt before he commissions the refinery, he will use bauxite mines in the upstream and build a large smelter in the downstream. There is a point here. Odisha is a non-BJP state and is long under the rule of Biju Janata Dal (BJD). Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik is educated, cultured and suave.

So if anyone’s thesis is that ascendency of Gautam Adani to the extent of becoming Asia’s richest and the world’s third wealthiest is because of his proximity to Modi, then she/he is short on understanding the economics of how business is run. Adani exercising the option provided in the loan agreement that at any point that loan can be converted into equity at face value of share making the way for his acquisition of marquee television channel NDTV no doubt raises the prospect of the channel undergoing change in character of content. But the acquisition cannot be challenged. The watchdog SEBI has not found anything wrong in Adani move.

India-Bangladesh Ties: Shared Interests, Mutual Progress

By Kunal Bose 31st August 2022

As it often happens with translation so also with media reporting, speeches and observations made by politicians will not convey what are exactly said. To give one example, a leading Dhaka-based TV channel recently attributed to the Bangladesh foreign minister Dr AK Abdul Momen that during a recent visit to India he made a request to New Delhi that it should do everything that was needed to keep the government led by Sheikh Hasina in power. No denying that a senior politician like Momen will not be making a diplomatic transgression of that kind when in a foreign land specially. Bangladesh would not have been there had India not taken on the Pakistani army in what was then East Pakistan and fought off hostile noises by the then an unfriendly US Administration headed by President Richard Nixon. His principal diplomat Henry Kissinger infamously described Bangladesh as a ‘basket case’ that underpinned the US hostility towards the liberation war and India’s role in that.

After years of political and economic turbulences what Bangladesh has been able to achieve, especially since Hasina’s accession to power in January 2009 is remarkable, earning her plaudits even from unexpected quarters. In the pursuit of the goal to emerge from the status of a least developed country to first attain lower-middle-income status and then march forward to greater wealth creation and also to rid society of religious intolerances, extremism and violence, India has steadfastly stood by Dhaka.

India has self-interest in seeing Dhaka continues to do well economically. This country shares the world’s fifth largest land border of 4,096 km with Bangladesh along West Bengal, Assam, Tripura, Mizoram and Meghalaya. For many years since the birth of Bangladesh in 1971, India had to live with the problem of Bangladeshis, not necessarily the persecuted Hindus but people of all faiths sneaking on to this side of the border in search of livelihood.

The neighbouring country’s economy growing at a clip among the highest in the world since 2010-11 (July to June) with GDP growth registering an all time high of 8.15 per cent in 2018-19 though there was an unavoidable blip in the following year because of Covid-19 pandemic caused slowdown in economic activities and Bangladesh, according to the World Bank, having a per capita income of $2,503 in 2021 against $2,277 for India, the raison d’etre for Bangladeshis to cross the border illegally is no longer there. Moreover, the eastern and north-eastern states sharing borders with Bangladesh have all high rates of unemployment making them unattractive destinations for foreigners to stealthily move in with all attendant risks. Watchers of developments in Bangladesh, including foreign agencies say the transformation of the country’s economy is not due to good economic policies alone but also for consciously creating the ideal political environment for their execution.

An overwhelming Muslim majority country with population of around 170 million with many unsavoury past records of persecution of minorities, the Hindus and others forcing many families to seek shelter in India, it required Hasina and her faithful associates of deep conviction and considerable courage to steer the country towards secularism and equal rights for all, irrespective of religion. Hasina recently said: “We want people of Bangladesh of all faiths to live with equal rights. You are people of this country, you have equal rights here, you have the same rights as I have… Please don’t undermine yourselves. You were born in this country, you are the citizens of this country.” At the same time, she is pained by attempts to give “colour” to any untoward incidents in a way as to show that the “Hindus don’t have any rights here. And interventions of the government in such unfortunate occurrences are hardly shown in a positive way.”

Like Hasina, her foreign minister Momen has also been a voice of reason, much to the comfort of Indian leaders. Not only did he inaugurate the recent Janmasthami festival celebrating the birth of Lord Krishna at Chittagong, but he will never miss an opportunity to remind people who matter in the two countries not to give any room to fundamentalists “who will be found in both places. Hasina rule has been a blessing for India which no longer is required to spend anything out of common on border vigil.”

Friendly relations, according to him, have created the environment for around 2.8 million Bangladeshis come to India every year as tourists and in turn “a few lakh Indians are working in our country.” Momen said: “We are very consciously avoiding reacting to any untoward incidents in India – take the case of a particular lady (the reference is to Nupur Sharma’s unfortunate remark on Prophet Muhammad that outraged Islamic nations and also saner sections of society in India) there making some avoidable observations that led quite a few countries to rise in protest – so that it doesn’t become fodder for the extremists in Bangladesh. You also have extremists in your country. Exercise of this kind of restraint is good for stability.”

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What Hasina and Momen are saying is as much in order to prepare the right environment for the Prime Minister’s Delhi visit from September 5 to 7 when she will be holding talks with Narendra Modi and other leaders on economic, water and defence issues and also to send a message to the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by Begum Khaleda Zia and her son Tarique Rahman that friendship with India is integral to Bangladesh’s economic progress and social cohesion. Mind you, BNP and some extremist groups are working to queer the pitch for Hasina’s Awami League ahead of the general elections due to be held December next year. BNP remains steadfast in arguing that for elections to be held in a free and fair way, a caretaker government should be in charge and not the election commission (EC) that the ruling dispensation has constituted under Kazi Habibul Awal, an eminent retired bureaucrat.

Effectiveness of EC in conducting elections is challenged on specious grounds that the shots will in any case be called by Hasina government. Interestingly, BNP secretary general Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir gave the game away by saying: “Amidst all political turmoil, elections in Pakistan are held under a caretaker government.”

In fact, the Constitution of Pakistan provides for setting up of a caretaker government after dissolution of Parliament to hold general elections. Pakistan defence minister Khawaja Asif recently dropped hints in London that elections in his country would likely be held before the incumbent chief of army staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa lays down office November end. BNP secretary general looking up to Pakistan for ideas naturally is of concern to Awami League. Any attempts to disturb the march towards secularism under Hasina leadership is of concern to New Delhi since the Hindus still constitute close to 8 per cent of the Bangladeshi population. That country’s 2022 census report says the fall in Hindu population by 0.59 percentage points to 7.95 per cent in 2022 from 8.54 per cent in 2011 is mainly because of outward migration and lower fertility rate attributable to not marrying at an early age and practice of birth control. In spite of the shrinkage over the past decade, the Hindus are still in Bangladesh in large numbers and New Delhi would want them to live in peace.

Economic backwardness is no less a cause of social tensions than religious insanity. As Bangladesh continues to make economic progress, there is realisation in Dhaka that robust trade ties with India, China and other countries offering it more and more duty free and quota free benefits will be supportive of sustainable growth. India, on its part, has to remain economically active in its eastern neighbour to match China’s growing presence there, especially by way of investment in infrastructure projects and supply of defence hardware.

Ahead of her coming to Delhi, Hasina, much to India’s comfort has given a go ahead to start formal negotiations leading to signing of a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA.) Incidentally, even while some other countries, including China are pressing Dhaka for a similar agreement, Hasina administration wants such an arrangement first with India. A joint feasibility study by the two countries says CEPA will give a major lift to export earnings to Bangladesh by 199 per cent and 188 per cent for India. The study further says the expected boost to trade will lead to gross domestic product (GDP) of Bangladesh rising by 1.72% and that of India by 0.8%. New Delhi welcomes Dhaka agreeing that CEPA will be one of the principal issues to be discussed during Hasina visit.

According to UN Comtrade, India enjoys considerable trade surplus vis a vis Bangladesh with its exports to that country exceeding $14bn in 2021 while its imports from the neighbour were worth less than $2bn. Attempts will be made under CEPA to correct the trade imbalance to the extent possible. Bangladesh buys large volumes of cotton and cotton yarn from India for high degrees of value addition into finished garments for exports around the globe. It will be difficult to find a global brand which doesn’t procure large quantities from the thriving garment industry in Bangladesh. Indian raw material cotton and yarns made of that sustain garment manufacturers in the neighbouring country.

The continuing growth and success of garment manufacturing and exports came for praise in India’s 2021 economic survey saying India can take some lessons from its neighbour and focus on specialising in products where it is competitive. India-Bangladesh talks at all levels as a routine will too have focus on sharing of water of rivers that are common to both and an important source of peoples’ wellbeing and sustenance of farming. As many as 54 rivers, including the big ones such as the Ganga, Teesta, Muhuri, Feni and Kushiyara flow through both the countries and water sharing, particularly the elusive Teesta will be discussed by the two prime ministers based on the outcome of proceedings at the Joint River Commission meeting in New Delhi.

Political Free-For-All Over Freebies

By Kunal Bose 16th August 2022

The BJP leadership must be regretting, privately of course, that Prime Minister Narendra Modi without any immediate provocation waded into the highly sensitive subsidy issue that requires intense informed debate as to its desirability, form and content and not part of what turned out to be a political address targeted at state governments ruled by opposition parties. In mid July inaugurating a 296 km Bundelkhand expressway in Uttar Pradesh from where Modi has been elected twice to the Lok Sabha, the PM said: “The ‘Revadi culture’ (freebie culture) is dangerous for the development of the country. The followers of ‘Revadi culture’ will never build expressways, airports and defence corridors. People, especially, the youth have to be cautious of such designs as this culture lures the youngsters by freebies and pushes their future to darkness. Together we have to remove this freebie culture from the country’s politics.” In north India revadis stand for sweets.

The importance of subsidy – the debate is now around good and bad freebies – and the absence of informed debate on the subject are underpinned by a Supreme Court bench headed by Chief Justice NV Ramana recommending the setting up of an expert body to find a solution to freebies problem. Interestingly when senior advocate Kapil Sibal said “Parliament will have to debate” the subject, Justice Ramana interjected: “Which political party will agree? Do you think there will be a debate in Parliament? These days everyone wants freebies… no political party will take out freebies, as all want freebies.”

Unfortunately, some have started airing views that the country’s highest court could have done without recommending review of subsidies, which “lies squarely in the province of politics, not the judiciary and technocrats.” Multiple waves of Covid-19 virus wreaking havoc since 2020 has, however, seen developed countries including the US, emerging economies including India and China and others have been supporting individuals and economic activities spending billions of dollar. Now as inflation is raging across the world raising the cost of living, governments and companies are lending support to people in a variety of ways, which are nothing but subsidies.

Let’s look at the UK where inflation is at its highest since 1982. The Bank of England recently gave the warning that the country will slip into recession in the third quarter of this year and will keep shrinking until the end of 2023. High inflation and growth setback have been mainly due to soaring energy costs caused by Russian invasion of Ukraine. In this situation, all businesses will be worried about near term future prospects. Even then British blue chip Rolls Royce, which among other things make aircraft engine for Boeing and Airbus, has given its 14,000 employees cash lump sum of pound sterling 2,000 ($2,450) – a bonus not linked to performance – providing relief for higher living expenses.

Similarly, Lloyds Banking Group and Oxford University have paid pound sterling 1,000 to their employees as one time-relief. Politicians and others participating in freebies debate here will do well to read Rolls Royce chief executive telling the staff a simple wage increase is neither a responsible act nor is that affordable as that would add “too much cost into the long-term wage bill at times of high uncertainty.” The challenge here for the management is to assess how much the company could spare as relief for employees without compromising its own viability.

More importantly, the world’s most powerful economy the US launched an over ‘$1 trillion in American rescue plan programs and tax credits,’ including nearly $10 billion homeowner assistance fund to provide relief to the country’s most vulnerable homeowners and a $350 Corona virus state and local fiscal recovery fund that was also designed to bring back jobs. The UK government too has spent a few hundred billion pound to “support jobs, support incomes and support businesses.”

The fifth largest economy in the world, the UK is a developed economy with $47,334 GDP per capita in 2021. Even then it continues to make very substantial budgetary allocation for health (National Health Scheme) and education, primarily through state schools. All this is done to keep the population in good health and for universal enlightenment. If that be the case with the UK, why shouldn’t India be a lot more generous in providing funds for the two sectors?

At home we have seen how compassionately the automobile to steel to IT group Tata responded by paying temporary workers and daily wage earners even if they were not able to work due to lockdowns, site closures, plant shutdowns or any other reasons during the pandemic. At the same time, it ensured payments to micro, small and medium enterprises were promptly made to spare them liquidity stress.

Soon after the breakout of health crisis in July 2020, an anguished Ratan Tata, chairman of Tata Trusts, seeing the loss of jobs, when survival became a challenge said: “The initial tendency was to lay off people, but is that going to solve your problem? That’s a knee-jerk reaction of the traditional workplace.” Tata will not deny that the management will have to remain responsible to shareholders. But business leaders can’t stand there and crack the whip on people who deliver the goods. You need to understand their position.” What Rolls Royce in the UK or Tata Group in India has done is to approach the issue of supporting their own people in times of extreme stress going beyond their normal obligations as employers without compromising business viability. Shareholders must have the heart to be accommodative of the needs of an important stakeholder – employees, permanent and casual – in extraordinarily difficult times.

Like good freebies and bad freebies, we have in India good corporates and bad corporates. Therefore, the central government requires of companies to spend at least 2 per cent of net profits on corporate social responsibility programmes. Every good work for social and economic development done by corporates and individuals matters. But making available basic services to the poor which they cannot otherwise afford is the responsibility of the government. It is universally proved that societies which make enough allocation for universal quality education, public health and corruption free safety nets to the victims of natural disasters emerge stronger over time.

Works of Amartya Sen, Jean Dreze and Abhijit Vinayak Banerjee also confirm the proposition that a good network of education and health care for the poor is a sure way of empowering those at the lowest rungs of society in terms of income. China has reaped considerable benefits by walking that road and in recent years India’s eastern neighbour Bangladesh has started benefiting by its growing investment in education and health. All this is good economics for emerging and developing nations.

Perhaps not anticipating hostile reactions of chief ministers of opposition ruled states, Modi went ahead in stirring a hornet’s nest by decrying various kinds of subsidies in vogue at the state level. Modi will not be blamed if he started believing in his invincibility after registering thumping victories in two successive Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019. But in several state elections starting from Odisha, West Bengal (Modi and home minister Amit Shah spent any amount of time ahead of March-April 2021 elections and were sure of defeating Trinamool Congress, which, however, retained power with greater majority than last time), Jharkhand, Delhi and Punjab, whatever was thought of Modi magic didn’t work, leaving the prime minister and BJP frustrated. One may not be wrong in believing that more out of discontent than based on serious discourse on merits and demerits of subsidies, Modi made the revadis speech.

Expectedly, Arvind Kejriwal buoyed by Aam Aadmi party’s very impressive victory in February Punjab state elections with BJP managing to win only two seats in the 117-seat Assembly and now eyeing to make a mark in Gujarat where Assembly elections will be held in December is the first among chief ministers to be off the blocks to take the central government over the coals. Kejriwal has been quite liberal in giving subsidies by granting people certain amount of free electricity and water and free education and medical care in Delhi and Punjab and making promises of the same in greater degrees to voters in the western coastal state. Kejriwal said: “The way free services given to the public are being opposed is rather baffling. It is being said that if this is not stopped, governments across the country will go bankrupt. They (BJP leaders) are saying it will lead to a crisis and all such services should be immediately stopped. This also creates doubts about the economic wellbeing of the central government. Such huge opposition makes me wonder if it is in bad condition.”

Kejriwal barbs forced finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman to say: “The Delhi CM has given a perverse twist to the debate on freebies. Health and education have never been called freebies. By classifying education and health as freebies, Kejriwal is trying to bring in a sense of concern and fear in the minds of poor.”

Besides Kejriwal, Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik, a rare breed of suave and clean politician has come out stoutly defending subsidies in his state. He said: “I have been eternally focussing on agriculture, education, health, food security, tribal welfare and women empowerment… All our programmes have become very popular and have empowered the people.” Tamil Nadu chief minister MK Stalin too has joined the debate defending the subsidies he has introduced since coming to power. Let people who could pay for services – power or water – are not given freebies. Also the centre and states must ensure that freebies reach the targeted population and not hijacked midway by corrupt politicians at district and panchayat levels.

Kissinger’s Attempt To Airbrush Nixon’s Fallacies

By Kunal Bose 23rd July 2022

The scholar, diplomat and public intellectual that the 99-year old Henry Kissinger is, has unwittingly done himself an injustice by including the disgraced US President Richard Nixon on more than one count in his recently released 528-page tome Leadership: Six Studies in World Strategy. Nixon and Donald Trump will remain engaged in a competition as to who was the worst President in modern history of the United States of America. If featuring Nixon in a select group of world leaders is not a bad judgement in itself, the exacerbation of the scholar diplomat becomes complete by giving the besmirched President under whose charge happened the break-in at the Democratic Party’s National Committee headquarters a lot more space in the book than the other five leaders.

Ahead of his becoming national security adviser to President Nixon in 1969 (followed by many other assignments under Nixon, Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan), Kissinger graduated summa cum laude from Harvard where he was also a faculty member. Perhaps he didn’t care, but Kissinger has never been liked by liberal Harvard professors and woke students there for his political views.

At the same time, Kissinger will not be unaware that many in the Republican Party agree with the late British author and journalist Christopher Hitchens’ description of Nixon as “duplicitous, gloating, insecure”… and “a small man who claimed to be for the little guy, but was at the service of the fat cats.” But that doesn’t stop him from confirming himself as a hagiographer as he gloats over Nixon’s “wealth of foreign policy experience,”… “his enormous appetite for information”… and his “long view.”

Such is his deference to Nixon – is it because the President’s foreign policy ideas were a mirror image of his own espousal – that Kissinger will staunchly argue to exonerate the President, on occasions going to the extent of putting the blame on his underlings, for all the wrong doings. Let’s take Watergate where the President was found complicit in break-ins in a rival party’s headquarters and all the transgressions that followed. Kissinger would say all these deserved “censure; they did not require removal from office.” Never mind, there would never be a buyer for such arguments.

Using his unique argumentative skills, Kissinger makes attempts in the book and also in a long interview with his biographer Niall Ferguson in Sunday Times to make the President appear like a victim in the Watergate case. You have Kissinger quoting Brycle Harlow, Nixon’s liaison man with Congress, in the book: “Some damn fool got into the Oval Office and did as he was told.” Developing on the point, Kissinger says: “As a general proposition, assistants owe their principals in politics not to be held to emotional statements (about) things you know they wouldn’t do on further reflection.”

Ferguson was given to understand there would be times, in the heat of the moment, or to impress present company, Nixon would give “intemperate verbal orders. But Kissinger learnt quickly not to act every time Nixon ordered him to ‘bomb the hell’ out of someone.” Kissinger’s apologia for shenanigans during Nixon Administration will be no exoneration for the President, for he alone was finally responsible for the doings of his underlings.

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The unravelling of Watergate put paid to the foreign policy ambition of Nixon-Kissinger to bring to an end the conflict in Vietnam on honourable terms, give the Atlantic alliance a new strategic direction, avoid a nuclear conflict with the Soviet Union through arms control policy and highly innovatively bring the US closer to China and Russia than they were to each other. Domestic standing of the national leader will underpin foreign policy success of a government. Ferguson writes that “the Nixon that emerges from Kissinger’s Leadership” is nothing less than a “tragic figure.”

Watergate “destroyed not only his presidency but also doomed South Vietnam to destruction… It was defeat in Vietnam… that set the US on a downward spiral of political polarisation.” At this stage, it will only be pertinent to ask if a President who invited charges of perfidy should find a place in a book on role model national leaders of the last century. More appropriately, as Ferguson asks: “Isn’t he (President Nixon) a case study in how not to lead?”

Whatever that is, there has always been an intense dislike for Nixon in India for his role in the 1971 India-Pakistan war that led to the creation of Bangladesh and all the bad words he mouthed in the presence of Kissinger against prime minister Indira Gandhi, unable to withstand her regal dignity and independence. But to be fair to Kissinger, he wrote about Gandhi long after the Nixon-Gandhi frosty encounter that “Mrs Gandhi was a strong personality relentlessly pursuing India’s national interest with single-mindedness and finesse. I respected her strength even when her policies were hurtful to our national interest.” Why only India, during his Presidency, Nixon courted the wrath of liberals all over the world for his brutish foreign policies in respect of Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia and Bangladesh.

The other five global leaders who walked tall in the second half of last century to find places in the book are: Konrad Adenauer, Charles de Gaulle, Anwar Sadat, Lee Kuan Yew and Margaret Thatcher. The world is aware of the heroic role played by Adenauer and de Gaulle in reconstructing Germany and France, respectively, from the Second World War rubbles. Sadat, on his part, performed the task of erasing the humiliation that Egypt suffered in the 1967 Six-Day War with Israel. The mighty city state Singapore is the result of Lee’s vision. The spell that Thatcher cast upon Britain didn’t wear thin even when Tony Blair’s New Labour government was elected in 1997, seven years after Thatcher had to quit rather ingloriously. Both Blair and his successor Gordon Brown hosted Thatcher to tea at 10 Downing Street. In the UK, a former PM could not ask for anything more. It is well known that Kissinger and Thatcher formed a mutual admiration group well before she became PM for the first time in 1979 that ended only at her passing in April 2013.

Kissinger writes: “For Thatcher, there were no sacred cows, much less insurmountable obstacles. Every policy was up for scrutiny. It was not sufficient, she argued, for conservatives to sand down the rough edges of socialism; they had to roll back the state before Britain’s economy collapsed in catastrophic fashion… Thatcher’s economic reforms changed Britain irrevocably.” In his estimate, nothing would confirm Thatcher revolution “more than Blair’s program.” This left Thatcher immensely happy for she told her friend: “I think your analysis is the correct one, but to make one’s political opponent electable and then elected was not quite the strategy I had in mind.” No denying the fact that Thatcher lifted the British economy from morass and gave it an altogether new direction.

At the same time, she gave little space to the opposition and trade unions remained an anathema to her. No wonder intellectuals treading the middle path left of centre across the democratic world never had any love lost for the US’ most gilded diplomat and they will, therefore, have reasons to demur that Kissinger is recommending Thatcher and Lee, who would never tolerate dissent within his own party and outside as role models for the present and future leaders. Democracy prospers in an environment of healthy debate and where people in power will have no hesitation in listening to saner words of the opposition. India’s first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru would make it a point to be present in Parliament when stalwarts from the opposition would speak. He also loved to host them over a meal.

Kissinger rightly says: “Leaders think and act at the intersection of two axes: the first between the past and the future; the second between the abiding values and aspirations of those they lead. They must balance what they know, which is necessarily drawn from the past, with what they intuit about the future, which is inherently conjectural and uncertain. It is this intuitive grasp and direction that enables leaders to set objectives and lay down strategy.” The tragedy, however, is Kissinger could not drive home this message to President Nixon.

Spotlight Shifts to South

By Kunal Bose 20th June 2022

More than one Bachhan and three Khans who had a free run on the national big screen and also vowed the non-resident Indian community for as long as one can remember ahead of the breakout of Covid-19, the heroes and heroines of the South aided by competent directors, musicians and technicians with mastery of IT are now calling the shots in the Indian film industry. Shah Rukh Khan is still very popular as an individual and courted by companies to launch their products and services. But it will be difficult to recall his last film where his mojo worked wonders at box office. It is not that he did not make attempts to reinvent himself but he has so far not been able to pull crowds with his last few films.

There was a time, long in the past indeed, when the unpretentious Salman Khan was synonymous with monumental successes in terms of revenues and profits for any film featuring him. But Salman with no claims to making anything but commercial cinema was found smart in often remaking highly successful South Indian films and laugh all the way to the bank. He, therefore, owes a big part of his success to his southern peers.

Take Ghajini, a Hindi remake of the original Tamil thriller directed by AR Murugadoss. In the Hindi remake featuring Aamir Khan in the role of protagonist, producers rightly thought their investment would fetch high returns with Murugadoss remaining the director, who incidentally is also the story writer. Ghajini stands out as an example of all-India triumph of a Tamil film in its Hindi avatar with AR Rahman as music director and other professional big names adding much value.

In its halcyon days when Bollywood with all its big production houses could not think of ever being challenged by what was perceived as makers of regional films, the country was witness to periodic dubbing and remaking of southern films in Bombay that made waves across the country.

A decade apart in 1981 we first saw the remake of Telegu film Maro Charitra (story, screen play and direction by K Balachander) into Ek Dujje Ke Liye (translated in English ‘Made for each other’) and then straight dubbing of Tamil romantic thriller Roja written and directed by Mani Ratnam into Hindi. What is special about these two movies, made originally in Telegu and Tamil for Bollywood, which would claim for itself the exclusive status of making films for the whole country and also abroad?

Even for Satyajit Roy, the winner of Oscar Life Time Achievement Award and maker of two globally acclaimed Hindi films and whose work inspired filmmakers such as Francois Truffaut, Martin Scorsese and Carlos Saura, Bollywood will not be found generous in its appreciation. A Balraj Sahni then or a Shyam Benegal now is not part of core Bollywood. Hindi adaptation of the two southern movies in 1981 and then in 1992, much to the surprise and maybe to some degree of shock to the Bollywood establishment, acquired cult status. In every aspect of filmmaking from storytelling to direction to cinematography to editing to music, the southern establishment had a few lessons for Bollywood. The musical genius SP Balasubrahmanyam, who was worshipped all over the south made a robust entry into Hindi playback singing through Ek Dujje Ke Liye. Unfortunately, the legendary singer passed away in September 2020.

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That the South was abundantly rich in every area of filmmaking – storytelling, direction, cinematography, music direction, editing and acting – was never in doubt. But for very long, it’s largely the people in the south of Vindhyachal who were aware of that genius. Only a few in the rest of the country being keen followers of cinema parallel to commercial movies, the staple of Bollywood, are aware of the works of Adoor Gopalkrishnan, Govindan Aravindan and Shaji N. Karun. They have inspired quite a few to think differently and experiment with the medium and their influence among neo filmmakers is not confined to the south. Creativity apart, the mainstream film industry in the South is backed by excellent infrastructure, in many ways unarguably the best in the country and matching the world benchmark. But where the South has left other filmmaking centres well behind is in adoption of technologies.

One gets a fair idea of that when one sees on big screen films such as Baahubali, Baahubali 2, Pushpa: The Rise and RRR. What the two Baahubali flicks have shown in terms of production scale, racy storytelling, visual effects and larger than life acting and box office collection, is something extraordinary that Indian cinema has never experienced before. In many ways, the unpretentious Baahubali has set new standards for the likes of Sanjay Leela Bhansalis of Bollywood.

Or take Minnal (lightning in English) Murali (MM). Indian film needed its own version of a Superman or a Spiderman or a Batman. We got it for the first time when overcoming all the Covid-19 related production dislocations and releases in theatres, Basil Joseph directed Malayalam language MM (a young tailor turning into a superhero after being struck by lightning) was released to universal acclaim in September last year. Unlike Baahubali and RRR, MM is a small budget film. But it stands out for breaking new grounds.

It has been seen over the years that Bollywood would lean on the South for cinema making material, if not wholesale remaking of successful southern productions. Even then, it required the recent mind-boggling successes of RRR and Baahubali and the rest for filmmakers in Mumbai to give up their condescending attitude of Tamil, Kannada, Malayalam and Telegu cinema. Interestingly without seeking any accommodation from the Mumbai establishment, the South has convincingly emerged as maker of films with their appeal transcending national boundaries to overseas. Bollywood reservations about films made in the South, however, defied logic on many counts.

From Vyjayanthimala to Waheeda Rehman to Hema Malini to Sridevi to Aishwarya Rai who ruled the Hindi screen for decades for their mastery of classical Indian dance and acting are all from the South. That tradition continues with talented, good looking girls from the south making it big in Bollywood. The talent pool in the South is so large that Bollywood has the assurance of having a good number of actresses from there at all times. So we now have Shruti Haassan (Kamal Haasan’s daughter), Vidya Balan, Kajal Aggarwal, Asin Thottumkal, Taapsee Pannu and Genelia DSouza, among others from the South having acquired all-India fame through Bollywood.

Know the meaning of the Tamil word thalaiva – it stands for sir or boss or leader. In the universe of the South, the Tamil superstar Rajinikanth, who will unfailingly spell enormous success at the box office is the thalaiva. Though in his seventies and he wears a wig while acting in films, his appeal among the masses and also southern elite has remained undiminished. His film stunts from the way he will play with a cigarette to his flipping of a stole at the blink of an eye before putting it on his shoulder to his running on speeding trains have encouraged many imitations but not to his kind of perfection. Born to Marathi parents in Karnataka as Shivaji Rao Gaekwad, he was given the name Rajinikanth by the late filmmaker and playwright K Balachander and was told to learn and master Tamil. Rajinikanth, before he made a sterling career of filmmaking experienced the raw side of life as he worked as a coolie and then a bus conductor.

On the screen he acts inconceivably larger than life. Two examples: First, the villain shoots at him but Rajinikanth takes it on his palm, which then on deflection kills a bird; second, he uses a knife to cut an approaching bullet into two before he goes to kill three villains. Rajinikanth does all this so naturally that the sheer absurdities don’t bother his millions of admirers. In the Greek pantheon of gods, mortal born heroes and heroines attain godhood through a process which the Greeks call apotheosis. Hindu mythologies are full of instances of gods and goddesses performing miracles all the time and are revered for that. Rajinikanth is no less than a God to his army of fans who will go the extent of bathing his large cardboard cut-outs with milk like the Hindus will do to Shivalingas. He has featured in a number of hit Bollywood movies such as Andha Kanoon, Bewafai, Bhagwaan Dada, Uttar Dakshin, Chaal Baaz and Hum. Besides him, stars from the South such as Girish Karnad, Kamal Hassan and Dhanush have done Hindi movies to public acclaim.

With box office successes eluding Hindi films in the post Covid period, any major south Indian film releases, specially with Hindi adaptation are sending the Bollywood bigwigs down a rabbit hole of blind panic. No wonder, Bollywood filmmakers are now found ensuring that their releases stay at least a few weeks away from big budget releases from south India. All this amounts to a big climb down by Bollywood from an attitude of patronising superiority to good films made in other parts of the country their due. Bollywood experiencing catharsis.