Why Is America Scared of TikTok

Why Is America Scared of TikTok, Which Is Owned By US Investors?

In regions where the app, TikTok, is allowed to be used, it has been a runaway success. The social media app dedicated to short-form videos that are user-generated has more than a billion active monthly users and TikTok’s format lends itself to entertainment and comedy. Of late, however, it is increasingly being used for other purposes – news, infotainment, and marketing promotions.

The largest number of TikTok users is in the US where it is estimated to have 170 million users (a sizeable proportion of the country’s population of 332 million). Other countries with significant user bases include Indonesia (110 million), Brazil (82 million), and Mexico (58 million). Last week, however, the US House of Representatives approved and passed a bill that could potentially force TikTok’s parent, the Chinese company, ByteDance, to either sell the app or face a partial ban within the US.

In fact, TikTok is already banned in many countries, including in India where, in 2020, the Indian government banned it along with dozens of other Chinese-made apps. The reasons cited for the ban were concerns related to sovereignty, integrity, defence, security, and public order. At the time of the ban, India had an estimated 200 million active users and was the largest market for the app.

Tik Tok is also banned in Afghanistan where the ruling Islamist regime felt the platform’s content was not in line with Islamic laws. In countries such as Australia, Canada, Belgium, and Denmark, the app is banned on all government-owned or government-issued devices. In the European Union, its three main institutions—the European Parliament, European Commission, and EU Council—have imposed bans on TikTok for staff devices, and the EU remains cautious about the platform’s ties to China.

In the US, legislators’ worries about TikTok have intensified after the tensions between the US and China have escalated. Many legislators believe that TikTok’s addictive algorithm could allow the Chinese government to access user data and potentially influence Americans. The bill aims to cut off Chinese influence by selling TikTok to a “qualified buyer,” likely a Western company. Legislators fear that ByteDance might be secretly controlled by the Chinese Communist Party.

Who Really Owns TikTok?

While ByteDance denies sharing sensitive user data with the Chinese government, concerns persist. China’s history of cracking down on domestic tech firms and its censorship practices raise suspicions. TikTok is popularly described as a Chinese app. And, indeed, it is owned by ByteDance, an internet technology company headquartered in Beijing, China. It was founded by two Chinese entrepreneurs, Zhang Yiming and Liang Rubo in 2012. But who really owns ByteDance?

ByteDance is called a Chinese company but 60% of it is beneficially owned by global investors such as the Carlyle Group, General Atlantic, and Susquehanna International Group–all US companies. The Carlyle Group is a global investment firm, founded in the US; General Atlantic is an American growth equity firm providing capital and strategic support for global growth companies; and Susquehanna International Group is a privately held global trading and technology firm, headquartered in the US. So, more than half of ByteDance’s equity is owned by American investment firms.

What about the rest? Roughly 20% is owned by ByteDance employees worldwide; and the remaining 20% is owned by ByteDance’s founders. TikTok’s CEO is Shou Zi Chew, also known as Chew Shou Zi, a Singaporean businessman and entrepreneur, based in the US.

Does China Influence TikTok?

As can be seen from the details of who owns TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, the Chinese government or state agencies do not have control over the company in the traditional sense, that is, through shareholding. However, the rest of the world outside China believes that there is a nuance regarding the Chinese government’s influence over social media and online platforms. While not a direct owner, a small stake (1%) in one of ByteDance’s Chinese subsidiaries is held by entities with ties to the Chinese government. This gives them some influence, but the extent is unclear. 

Then there is the geographic factor. Owing to ByteDance’s Chinese origins, many countries worry the Chinese government could pressure the company to hand over user data. TikTok maintains its US user data is stored outside of China and that its CEO who is based in the US makes key decisions. So, while the Chinese government doesn’t directly own TikTok, the ownership structure and Chinese origins raise concerns about potential government influence over user data.

Interestingly, TikTok has never been available in China, as the country has its own version of the app called Douyin, incidentally, also owned by ByteDance. While TikTok is available internationally, in China, you would find Douyin, which has been described as the country’s domestic alternative to TikTok. It is held on a different server than TikTok, which researchers have attributed to ByteDance complying with internet regulations set by the Chinese government. Douyin is available via the web, and it operates within China, subject to monitoring and censorship by the government.

It is believed that China has strict control over its media environment, both traditional and digital. China’s central government employs a combination of legal regulations, technical control, and proactive manipulation to restrict online freedom of expression.

China’s Great Firewall (officially known as the Golden Shield Project) monitors and filters internet traffic, blocking access to foreign websites and services. Authorities use libel lawsuits, arrests, and other means to force journalists, bloggers, and media organisations to self-censor.

Moreover, China emphasises the concept of “internet sovereignty”, requiring all internet users (including foreigners) to abide by Chinese laws and regulations. Chinese internet companies have to sign a pledge on self-regulation and professional ethics, imposing even stricter rules.

The heat around TikTok is, therefore, generated by concerns that its parent, ByteDance, 60% of which is controlled by investment firms that are really American, will have to comply with Chinese regulations on internet and social media platforms and that TikTok’s parent company ByteDance, could access user data for surveillance or influence campaigns. 

Doesn’t Every App Collect User Data? 

Yes, they do. Pretty much all popular apps collect user data. This can include browsing habits, location, purchase history, and even how you interact with the app itself. 

Data collection by apps is becoming more regulated, but it’s a complex issue. Laws like GDPR in Europe and CCPA in California give users more control over their data, but enforcement varies. In India, for instance, the government has been actively addressing data privacy and collection through various measures but it is still evolving. When apps collect your data, there are potential risks such as privacy intrusion but also security breaches where data can be stolen and used for malicious purposes. 

Apps and platforms such as Facebook (with a monthly user base of more than 3 billion); X (350 million); and Instagram (1.2 billion) all collect personal data that, potentially, can be used for malicious intent that TikTok is potentially suspected of. The fact is there is no evidence that any of these apps and platforms misuse the data that they collect. Then again, there is neither any evidence that TikTok does that. Ultimately, all major platforms collect a substantial amount of user data. For users, therefore, it is wise to be cautious and review the privacy settings on any app that they may be using. 

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Why India’s Richest Don't Want to Give their Wealth Away

Why India’s Richest Don’t Want to Give their Wealth Away

Michael Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City and the founder of the financial, software, and data company, Bloomberg L.P., could well be the world’s most exceptional living philanthropist. Over his lifetime, Bloomberg, who is 82, has given away a staggering $17.4 billion to various charitable causes. That sum, in Indian rupees, is 1.44 lakh crore. Bloomberg’s dedication to improving education, public health, and social equality has left an indelible mark, making him one of the most influential philanthropists of our time.

In 2023 alone, Bloomberg contributed $3 billion to support the arts, education, environment, public health, and programs aimed at improving city governments around the world. In the same year, according to a ranking by Hurun, a research, media and investments group, the top 10 Indian philanthropists together donated ₹5,800 crore or $700 million. In Indian media, it was widely described as an impressive contribution that made a significant impact. To put it in perspective, however, the sum that the top 10 Indian philanthropists donated together is a little less than 25% of what Bloomberg donated in the same year.

Bloomberg is not richer than the richest Indian, by the way. He is actually poorer. Bloomberg’s net worth, according to the Forbes real-time ranking of billionaires, is $106.2 billion. The richest Indian, according to the same Forbes list, is Mukesh Ambani, with a net worth assessed at $117.5 billion. Ambani ranked as the ninth richest person in the world. And, in 2023, he and his family, according to the Hurun Philanthropy list (which happens to be the only credible and authentic estimation of Indian philanthropy), made a donation of ₹376 crore or, if you are into comparisons, $45 million. As stated before, in the same year, Bloomberg, who is the 12th richest person in the world, contributed $3 billion.

The number of Indian billionaires has been growing apace every year. According to Forbes, a record number of Indians, 186 in total, have made it to Forbes’ 2024 World’s Billionaires list, an increase from 169 last year. The total number of billionaires in the world is estimated by Forbes to be 2,555, a staggering 19-fold increase since 1987. American billionaires, unsurprisingly, account for the highest number–735 on the Forbes list but for a country that accounts for one of the world’s largest population of poor people (according to the Multidimensional Poverty Index, which considers factors like health and education, 14.96% of Indians are in multidimensional poverty), 186 billionaires is a massive number. 

Yet, the number of Indians among the world’s biggest philanthropists is appallingly small. In fact, the biggest philanthropists in India aren’t the richest, and even as the number of Indian billionaires burgeons, the amount that they give away remains paltry. Interestingly, one of the greatest philanthropists of all time was an Indian pioneer industrialist and founder of the Tata group, Sir Jamsetji Tata who passed away more than a century ago. Tata began his endowments in 1892 and his lifetime donations are estimated to be worth $102.4 billion, which is many times what today’s India’s richest businessmen together donate.

The Indians that do lead in philanthropy are ones that keep a far lower profile than their headline-grabbing richer peers. The two biggest philanthropists in India today are Shiv Nadar, 78, and Azim Premji, also 78. Both built their fortunes primarily in technology. Premji started with his father’s cooking oil and soap making business and founded Wipro, a multinational corporation that provides information technology, consultant and business process services. Nadar is a first-generation entrepreneur who started HCL, a technology multinational similar to Wipro.

Last year, Nadar and his family donated ₹2,042 crore mainly to arts, culture, and heritage; and Premji donated ₹1,774 crore primarily to education. In dollar terms, their contributions, $214 million and $246 million, respectively, hardly match what the world’s billionaire philanthropists donate but in India, they are far bigger philanthropists than their richer peers who control bigger Indian business conglomerates.

Why don’t India’s Rich Give Away their Money?

One easy answer is that they probably fear the taxman. Many Indian businessmen own their businesses (and, ergo, their wealth) through intricate webs of holding companies that help them minimise the taxes they have to pay on their incomes and wealth. To be seen to be forking out large sums to good causes could attract unwanted attention. Indeed, many rich Indians do like to donate and when they do, they prefer to be anonymous.

Some of the available figures of corporate or individual donations may also not be accurate. The relationship between wealth and philanthropy in India is complex. While some wealthy individuals actively engage in charitable giving, others may not contribute as significantly. Then there are traditional and historical factors. India has a strong tradition of religious giving. Many affluent individuals donate to temples, religious institutions, and festivals. This form of charity is deeply ingrained in Indian culture and may not show up on philanthropy lists and rankings.

The emergence of wealthy and super-rich Indians is also a new phenomenon. Many among India’s growing breed of new rich have built first- or second-generation wealth and are not yet secure enough to donate part of that. It could take a couple more generations before philanthropy becomes a more widespread practice. Thus, wealthy Indians often prioritise supporting their extended families, including education, healthcare, and other needs. This familial responsibility can sometimes take precedence over broader philanthropic efforts.

India wants to be a global economic superpower. Many believe it is on its way to becoming one. In the last quarter, the Indian economy, according to official figures, grew at 8.4%, which is far higher than most of the world’s big economies, and last week Prime Minister Narendra Modi said “with this speed, India will become the world’s third-largest economy.” At the same time, India grapples with extreme income inequality. The gap between the rich and the poor is stark, and the country’s developmental needs are huge. That is why India’s rich ought to take philanthropy more seriously, and that is why individuals such as Premji and Nadar are exceptions who should become examples to follow.

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Narendra Modi’s Southern Discomfort

Narendra Modi’s Southern Discomfort 

If you go by the media, both Indian and international, the Narendra Modi led Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) victory in the yet to happen parliamentary elections in India is already baked in, which is to say that it is a conclusion that has preceded the actual event. With a degree of certainty that view does not vary much, as most political sages, whether in the media or in the wise environment of every Indian living room, are sanguine that Modi and his party will win a third term in government when the elections are held and the results come out in mid-May this year.

They are probably right. Modi himself has been quoted as saying that he could “gauge the mood of the nation”, and that voters “will definitely give the NDA (the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance) more than 400 seats and the BJP at least 370 seats.” In 2019, the NDA won 353 seats, 303 of them won by the BJP on its own. That is an impressive tally but still not as massive as the 404 seats that the Congress party, led by Rajiv Gandhi, won back in 1984, after the assassination of his mother, former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.

Can the BJP and its allies match that feat in this year’s elections? Modi’s regime enjoys very high approval ratings. He himself is among the most popular leaders that post-Independent India has had. In fact, according to one global survey, he continues to hold the title of the world’s most popular leader, with an impressive approval rating of 76%. His regime will obviously benefit from a number of factors at this year’s polls, which are expected to begin in April.

For one, the Indian economy’s performance has been outstanding, at least in terms of macroeconomic numbers. Not only has India been the fastest growing among the world’s largest economies (its GDP of $3.2 trillion makes it the world’s fifth-largest economy), according to official figures released last week, its GDP surged 8.4% in the last three months of 2023 compared with the previous year, up from a growth of 7.6% in the June-to-September period. India has overtaken countries such as the UK, France, Italy, Canada, and Brazil, and despite challenges like demonetisation, GST reforms, and the COVID pandemic, the economy has shown remarkable resilience. Inequality and job creation remain problematic but overall the Indian economy has fared well.

Besides, the Modi government has accelerated infrastructure projects, such as impressive new highways. On average, 36 km of highways are built daily, more than triple the earlier pace. It has also doubled the capacity of solar and wind-powered energy in the past five years. The average Indian citizen has also benefited from initiatives such as Swachh Bharat (a cleanliness drive), digitisation of subsidy and social welfare benefits, as also housing for the poor, and piped water supply. The Modi regime’s foreign policy stance has improved India’s global standing and its rising stature has rubbed off on people’s national pride. 

BJP also finds support among large proportions of India’s majority community of Hindus, and actions such as the recent lavish inauguration of a temple in Ayodhya on a site where a mosque was demolished three decades ago have only strengthened that support. 

Discordant notes from the South

Still, such positive factors for the Modi government could be dampened by some disharmony. In southern India, the BJP has not fared well. Continued efforts by the BJP and its allies to increase their influence in the south have not been successful. In southern states, the BJP faces strong opposition from regional parties and the opposition’s Congress party.

In Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, the BJP’s attempts to make political inroads have not worked out. In Tamil Nadu, the ruling party is the regional All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK); in Kerala, it is the Left Democratic Front (LDF); in Andhra Pradesh, the government is led by the regional Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP); and in Telangana, it is a Congress-led government that is in power since December 2023. In Karnataka, the only southern state where the BJP made significant inroads and ruled during 2018-2023 (save a short interruption by the Janata Party), it was dislodged last year by the Congress. 

Let’s do a bit of math. The BJP’s tally from the south in national elections has not been heartening for it either. Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala, Karnataka, and Puducherry together have 130 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha. In the 2019 elections, while BJP and its allies swept the northern states, in the southern states, they managed to win only 30 seats, 25 of them from Karnataka. In contrast, of the 91 seats that the Congress-led UPA won in 2019 Lok Sabha, 58 were from the southern states. The BJP’s foothold in the south is clearly weak.

There are non-political disparities between India’s northern and southern states as well. Data shows that southern Indian states consistently outperform the rest of the country in health, education, and economic opportunities. There is enough evidence to suggest that a child born in southern India is more likely to live a healthier, wealthier, and more socially impactful life compared to a child born in the north. 

Interestingly, at India’s independence in 1947, southern states (Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh) were mostly in the middle or bottom in terms of development. However, since the 1980s, southern states have diverged positively compared to the rest of India, with accelerated progress.

The combined population of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, and Puducherry is estimated at 250 million, representing approximately 18% of India’s population, but Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, alone has an estimated population of more than 240 million. A lower population has its advantages.

The progressiveness of the southern states and their economic performance is demonstrated by their per capita GDPs and how those stack up with the rest of India’s states and Union Territories. While, small states such as Goa, Sikkim and Delhi understandably top the list of per capita GDP rankings in India, it is significant that some of the southern states such as Telangana (at the fifth spot), Karnataka (at the sixth), Tamil Nadu (at the ninth), and Kerala (at the 11th) are way higher than, say, northern states such as Uttar Pradesh (at 32), Bihar at (33), and Madhya Pradesh (at 25).

India is likely one of the most complex countries in the world with a degree of heterogeneity across regions that is unparalleled elsewhere. The differences are sharpest between the north and the south. Besides linguistic, cultural, and traditional differences with the north, the southern states have never really accepted some aspects of the BJP’s nationalistic stance. The party is still viewed as a northern party from the Hindi belt and Hindi has never really become a part of linguistic array in the south. Not surprisingly, the BJP’s efforts to spread its influence in the southern states have largely failed.

So if we come back to the math and consider the BJP’s aim of getting 400 plus seats in the elections this year, the numbers, as the idiom says, might just not add up.

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How Old Is Too Old To Be a Head of State?

How Old Is Too Old To Be a Head of State?

Frequent gaffes by the two main contenders for the 47th presidency of the United States has brought the focus sharply on whether age is more than just a number when it comes to politics. Unless something unforeseen happens, the US presidential elections in November this year will be a face-off between the incumbent Democratic US President Joe Biden, who is 81, and his challenger and former Republican President Donald Trump, who is 77.

Both gentlemen have been grabbing the headlines recently with what would seem like instances of memory lapses or cognitive failure. A few weeks back, while delivering a speech, President Biden mistakenly referred to Egyptian president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi as the leader of Mexico. Earlier this year, Trump confused his main Republican rival Nikki Haley with Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat and former speaker of the US House of Representatives. Ironically, Biden made his confused remarks when he was defending his position after a special counsel report on his handling of classified documents that had referred to his memory as “poor”.

Both Biden and Trump have committed other similar gaffes that point to memory lapses but their aides insist that the two are not mentally infirm and that they do not suffer from age-related mental conditions that could interfere with a job that is arguably one of the most important and impactful in international geopolitics. The US is the most powerful country in the world–economically and politically–and the US President is highly empowered to take decisions that could affect the rest of the world in profound ways. 

How old is too old in politics?

The focus on their age, however, can raise questions about whether age should be a factor determining eligibility for top political jobs. Should there, for instance, be an age limit for those who aspire for top political jobs? Many company boards have retirement ages for their directors who have to step down, say, when they reach 70 or 75. Should governments have similar rules on retirement? 

According to a new Pew Research Center analysis, the average age of current national leaders is 62 years. When grouped by decade, the largest share of global leaders today (35%) are in their 60s. Roughly a quarter (22%) are in their 50s, while 18% each are in their 40s or 70s. Measured against those statistics, both Biden and Trump are much older than the average. 

Yet, both of them are younger than many heads of state in the world today. For instance, the oldest currently serving head of state is Paul Biya, who at 91 has been the president of the Central African country of Cameroon since 1982. There are others too who are older than Biden and Trump. Palestine’s president Mahmoud Abbas is 86; Cuba’s Raoul Castro is 85; and Namibia’s president Hage Geingob served till he died early this month at 82. 

In India, surprisingly, heads of state (and I refer here to Prime Ministers and not Presidents) have been relatively young. When Jawaharlal Nehru became the first Prime Minister of India in 1947 he was 57; Indira Gandhi was 48 when she became Prime Minister; Rajiv Gandhi was 40; and Narendra Modi, the current Prime Minister, was 63 in 2014 when he began his first term. He’s 73 now. 

India has also had its share of older Prime Ministers, though. When Manmohan Singh became Prime Minister in 2004, he was 71, the same age at which the late Atal Behari Vajpayee became Prime Minister. And, in 1977 when Morarji Desai became Prime Minister he was 81. His successor Charan Singh was 76 when he got the top job; and when I.K. Gujral became Prime Minister in 1977, he was 77. 

There aren’t really many instances of cognitive failures or memory lapses by Indian Prime Ministers or other senior ministers–at least, they haven’t been reported in the media (although I once attended an Indian foreign minister’s press conference in 2010 where he repeatedly referred to Russia as the Soviet Union but I guess we can pardon that slip!). 

In fact, some anecdotal accounts of Indian Prime Ministers showing signs of exhaustion or tiredness are lapses that might not have anything to do with age. One of them famously concerns H.D. Deve Gowda, who became Prime Minister quite unexpectedly in 1996 when a short-lived coalition of regional parties won the elections. Deve Gowda was only 63 when he got that job but he soon earned an unenviable reputation for falling asleep during official meetings. His nodding off probably had nothing to do with his age. After all, who doesn’t like to sneak in a cheeky siesta or a power nap?

Lifestyle choices can make a difference

Indian politicians, particularly those who have taken up powerful positions in government often enjoy and edge over others when it comes to health and mental well-being. Many of them follow healthy lifestyle routines that keep them in good stead. At 73, Prime Minister Modi is pretty fit, both physically and mentally. A keen adherent of yoga, he practices the discipline daily and has been doing so for years; he walks regularly; and is a vegetarian who also fasts intermittently. His predecessor, Manmohan Singh, now 91, was also known for his spartan eating habits and healthy lifestyle. Neither Modi nor Singh (during his two terms as Prime Minister) has ever shown signs of mental confusion or committed gaffes such as ones by Biden or Trump.

Historically, India’s prime ministers have led disciplined lives that have been healthy and abstemious. Forty-six years ago, when Morari Desai became Prime Minister at 81, the New York Times wrote: “Mr. Desai forswears many pleasures of life. Not only is he a teetotaler, he is also a rigorous vegetarian, living on a diet of fruits, nuts and milk and fasting frequently. He renounced sex after he and his wife had five children.”

Zooming back to the two most likely candidates for the US presidential election, the question is whether having an age limit is a guarantee for having someone who is sound of mind to run a country or should it be something else. Earlier this month, in a guest column for the Economist, David Owen, a former British foreign secretary and Member of Parliament, waded into the Biden-Trump age controversy and argued that no one above the age of 70 should be considered for the job of head of state. Lord Owen, who is also a former neurologist, argued that in humans aged 60-70, the brain’s frontal lobe and an area called the hippocampus begins shrinking and this affects how the brain processes information. Because of that memory and cognitive functions can get affected.

Extrapolating from that and with examples from history (examples involving the US President Franklin Roosevelt and his decision to stand for elections in 1944), Lord Owens recommends that Biden should voluntarily step aside in favour of a younger nominee from the Democratic Party during this spring’s national convention of the party.

Lord Owen’s suggestion of an age limit is one point of view. The problem with it is that not everyone ages in the same way. There are enough examples that one can draw from different fields to show that some individuals continues to demonstrate mental acuity well into their eighties and even nineties. The list of notable people who have continued to work well into their senior years is too long to list out here. 

Why not tests instead of an age limit?

Rather than an age limit to ensure that only people with sound minds get to govern countries, would it not be more scientific to test the brain functions of an ageing person, depending on the purpose and the level of cognitive abilities that are needed for a job? There are different ways of assessing the brain function of an aging person, depending on the purpose and the level of detail needed. Some methods that could be adopted are:

Cognitive screening tests: Short, quick tests that check how well your brain is processing thoughts. They involve answering simple questions and performing simple tasks, such as recalling a list of items, spelling words, or drawing a clock. These tests do not diagnose specific diseases, but they can identify a problem with cognition and the need for more in-depth testing.

Brain imaging techniques: These are methods such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), computed tomography (CT) scans or electroencephalogram (EEG) that can help detect changes in the brain due to aging, disease, or injury.

Neuropsychological assessment: This is a comprehensive evaluation of the cognitive, emotional, and behavioral functions of the brain. It involves a series of tests that measure memory, attention, language, reasoning, problem-solving, and other skills. This assessment can help diagnose specific conditions, such as dementia, Alzheimer’s disease, stroke, or brain injury.

Instead of an age limit, scientific tests and assessments such as those listed above could be a better way of ensuring that an aging candidate retains the mental capabilities that the job of, say, the head of state would require. However, there is a catch. Will such tests be acceptable for politicians, political parties, and the interest groups that they represent? My guess is that they probably won’t. At least not in the foreseeable future. Till then, we will have to amuse ourselves as some senior citizen politicians make their occasional gaffes, suffer memory lapses or just nod off to sleep. 

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Why Are Indian Farmers Protesting Again

The Anatomy of an Agitation: Why Are Indian Farmers Protesting Again?

The irony is dark. It has been barely two years since Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the Kisan Drone Scheme in India. In the beginning, the scheme, which assists farmers to deploy drones for spraying fertilisers, nutrients and pesticides more efficiently on their farmlands, was launched in 100 places across the country, and later, expanded to more areas. Last week, however, drones were deployed against farmers for an altogether different purpose. They were used to bombard them with tear gas as thousands of farmers converged upon Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR) in what is seen as a reprisal of the protests in 2020 and 2021 against the government’s policies.

Back then, in what became one of the biggest and longest mass movements in India’s history, hundreds of thousands of farmers, mainly from the agrarian states of Punjab and Haryana, had agitated for around a year against three new farm laws of the government. That movement had coincided with one of the worst phases of Covid that had hit India and it was a period of tumult. In the end, the Modi government had to repeal the three laws and accede to the farmers’ demands.

What then is the fresh wave of agitation all about? To understand that we need some recapitulation.

The farm laws and why they were repealed

The three laws that were passed in 2021 and then repealed after the protests were aimed at first, giving farmers more freedom to sell their produce outside the regulated markets or mandis; second, they enabled contract farming when farmers and buyers could pre-agree on pricing and other terms; and third, they relaxed the restrictions on storage and movement of some farm commodities such as cereals, pulses, oilseed, onions, and potatoes.

The laws led to massive agitations and clashes with the government’s security forces and police. Farmer leaders said over 700 people died during the year-long protests but the government did not confirm any deaths. The farmers opposed these laws because they feared that they would lose the protection of the government’s minimum support price (MSP) system, which guarantees a fixed price for certain crops, and that they would be exploited by big corporations. They demanded that the government repeal the laws, withdraw the criminal cases against the protesters, provide compensation to the families of the farmers who died during the protest, and ensure a legal guarantee for MSP. They also had other demands, such as pensions, debt waivers, and stricter regulation of fake seeds, pesticides, and fertilisers.

In December 2021, Prime Minister Modi announced the repeal of the laws after which the farmers temporarily suspended their protests. Why then has the agitation begun afresh and what are the issues this time round?

What do farmers want now?

Last week farmers renewed their protests as hundreds of them, mainly from the two northern states, Punjab and Haryana, marched towards the capital and the NCR. The timing of the protest was significant as it came only a few months before parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held and in which the Modi regime that is completing its second term is keen to win a third.

This time the authorities were more prepared as they barricaded the capital and adjoining areas. Delhi and the urban sprawl that makes up the NCR has an urban population of around 30 million people and the farmers’ march can drastically disrupt the functioning of the area. This time local and central police had ramped up their efforts to stop that from happening by barricading highways, pouring concrete and stacking shipping containers to halt the advancing tractors and masses of protesters.

ALSO READ: Understanding The Mandi System in India

At the core of the provocation for the renewed protests is the farmers’ demand for a guaranteed implementation of the minimum support price (MSP) for all crops so that they get what they consider fair prices and protect them from exploitation by private companies. The repealed farm bills were aimed at increasing market access and competition, but farmers had feared they would weaken existing structures and leave them vulnerable to corporate control.

About 58% of Indians depend on farming for their livelihood and as much as 68.8% of them live in the rural areas. Considering India’s estimated population of 1.4 billion, those translate into huge numbers. Many farmers are burdened by debt and demand loan waivers to alleviate their financial hardships. They also think that rising costs of fertilisers, pesticides and other inputs put further pressure on their livelihoods.

Among their list of demands is also a call for repealing the electricity amendment bill, which was enacted in 2022, to change electricity distribution rules. Farmers fear that it will increase their costs and further increase their dependence on private companies. 

Government’s view on farmers’ demands

To begin with, although the three farm laws have been repealed, the Indian government still maintains that they were beneficial for farmers and were needed to modernise the farm sector. The contribution of agriculture in GDP of India is 18.3% as per the second advance estimates of national income for 2022-23. This share has been declining over the years as the economy diversifies and grows.

However, the growth rate of agriculture in India is low. In 2022-23, it was 3.3%, which is lower than the previous two years, which recorded 4.1% and 3.5%, respectively. The growth rate varies depending on the monsoon, crop prices, and other factors.

India’s farm productivity, measured by the gross value added (GVA) per worker, which was Rs. 1,00,000 in 2022-23, is much lower than the global average of Rs. 3,60,000. India’s farm productivity is constrained by factors such as small and fragmented land holdings, lack of irrigation, low use of technology, and poor market linkages. According to the government, many of these problems were sought to be tackled by the laws that the Indian government had proposed in 2021.

After the previous round of protests and the repealing of the farm laws, the government has offered what it considers alternative solutions such as MSP for select crops and increased procurement efforts. It has also held multiple rounds of talks with farmers but has not been able to agree on some of the demands such as MSP for all crops. One of the main constraints is the lack of resources to be able to do that.

The problem is compounded by the fact that with a few exceptions, agricultural income is generally exempt from income tax in India. Under the existing laws, even rich farmers with large holdings can be exempt from tax, and this often creates a loophole for tax evasion and inequality.

Is there a solution to the farmers vs. government impasse?

While farm union leaders are demanding guarantees, backed by law, of greater state support or a minimum purchase price for all crops, the government is unable to acquiesce. The central government announces support prices for more than 20 crops every year. However, agriculture falls under the jurisdiction of individual states and their buying agencies can usually buy only rice and wheat at the support level, which benefits only an estimated 7% of farmers.

The procurement of rice and wheat, the two staple foodgrains, is aimed at building a food bank to supply to a massive food welfare system in India that entitles more than half of India’s population (or 800 million people) to subsidised (essentially, free) rice and wheat through the public distribution system. In 2024-25, this food subsidy bill is estimated at Rs 2.05 lakh crore ($24.7 billion). The government has extended its flagship free food welfare scheme, which was announced during the Covid-19 pandemic, for the next five years.

Given the magnitude of the food subsidy bill, the government will find it difficult to extend the MSP to all crops as the farmers are demanding. That is why it is not able to guarantee by law the state support for procurement as demanded by the farmers. The government had, while repealing the three farm laws in 2021, said that it would form a panel of farmers and government representatives to find viable solutions to the issue. Farmers are now accusing the government of going slow on that assurance.

What to expect in the future?

The renewed protests are smaller than the massive agitations that marked the 2020-21 movement but the farmers remain persistent. The government has said it is willing to engage in dialogue but is hesitant in meeting the core demands of legally guaranteed MSP and loan waivers.

The government stresses that alternative solutions and a focus on long-term reforms are the only way to resolve the impasse but farmers are not convinced. The outcome would depend on the government’s willingness to address core demands and farmers’ ability to sustain the movement.

There is, obviously, also a political aspect to it, which is heightened by the coming elections. Further escalation of protests or a deadlock could impact agricultural production and political stability, both highly undesirable outcomes for the ruling regime that is keenly looking to be re-elected for a third term in May.

Fighting Delhi’s Pollution is Not a Seasonal Gig

Fighting Delhi’s Pollution is a Full-time Job; Not a Seasonal Gig

Air pollution is now no longer something anyone living in Delhi or the National Capital Region (NCR) is concerned about. Residents are not talking about it anymore. The media don’t care about it either – you won’t find coverage of the issue in any publication, local, regional, or national. Barely three months ago, Delhi was choking. On November 5 last year, the Air Quality Index (AQI), a measure of particulate matter in the atmospheric air that we breathe, had touched 382; around the same time in some of the city’s adjoining suburbs, it had crossed 400. On February 10, as I write this, AQI in Delhi was 186 (as per data on the website); and in Gurgaon 177.

No wonder there’s little concern about air pollution now. AQI has sharply declined since January, almost halved by some measures. Yet, this might be the right time for India to ramp up its fight against air pollution. Every year, beginning in the end of October and lasting well into January, air pollution levels in India rise to dangerous levels, hazardous even. Those are the colder months and as we know cold air traps emitted particulate matter and the density of pollutants in the air increases. Then, as it starts to get warmer, the particulate matter disperses and pollution levels decline.

AQI measures the density of five pollutants in the air: ozone, particulates, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, and sulfur dioxide. Tiny particulates are most harmful for the respiratory system as they get embedded in the lungs and can lead to a host of serious health problems from breathing-related ailments to death. An AQI level that is higher than 300 is classified as “Hazardous”, which means that the entire population of a city or a region is at risk of health effects and the only safe bet is to stay indoors, avoid outdoor activities and follow health advisories.

Everybody knows that warnings such as those mean nothing in India. People have to be outdoors. Many have to work outdoors, and life has to go on no matter what. Ironically their lives face increasing levels of risk. Consternation and concern about pollution peaks with the AQI level: the higher the AQI the more the outrage and worry. When the AQI levels fall, those worries disappear. That cyclical variation in concern about pollution is as predictable every year as the cycle that the AQI levels follow.

That cycle has to be broken. Let’s consider today’s aforementioned pollution levels in Delhi and Gurgaon. At 186 and 177, respectively in Delhi and Gurgaon, the AQI levels (at the time that I write this) are considered “Unhealthy”. That is, everyone, including those who are otherwise healthy, may begin to experience health effects; sensitive groups, such as people with existing respiratory conditions, are at significantly higher risks; and the warning is to limit outdoor activities, especially strenuous ones. Well, is anyone in Delhi or the NCR heeding these warnings? Silly question, because after all, “unhealthy” is better than “hazardous”.

GRAP(pling) with the pollution

Yet, the time to tackle air pollution in Delhi and the NCR (as well as in an ever-lengthening list of Indian cities and towns) may be now. Unfortunately, thus far the response to the pollution problem has been short-sighted. In the Delhi & NCR area (as well as in some other Indian cities), there is something called the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP). Introduced by the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), GRAP triggers specific actions that escalate depending on the level of pollution in a city as measured by the AQI level.

When the level is “Moderate” to “Poor”, GRAP triggers restrictions on construction activities, vehicular emissions, and industrial processes. When it is “Very Poor” to “Severe”, more steps such as banning diesel generators, closing brick kilns, and implementing the odd-even vehicle rule (cars with odd registration numbers are allowed on one day and those with even numbers the next day). If pollution reaches “Emergency” levels, even stricter steps are added such as shutting down schools, restricting outdoor activities, and enforcements are made tougher.

In theory, GRAP seems well-calibrated. In practice, it has failed. GRAP was introduced nearly eight years ago. In eight years, the pollution problem in Indian cities has worsened at an alarming pace. Every year, especially during the colder months, which ought to be called the “pollution season”, peak AQI levels become higher.

GRAP has faced challenges mainly because the various agencies involved are unable to efficiently coordinate their actions. Also, GRAP is triggered only when pollution actually happens. It is a sort of post facto action, a retroactive system that is triggered only after the problem has already occurred.

Getting a long-term solution

To seriously tackle air pollution in Indian cities, particularly in the NCR where it is acute every year, a longer term, sustained plan is required. A plan that is constant and not triggered only when things get truly out of hand.

Many countries have tackled chronic air pollution problems. In developed countries, which are less densely populated and where industrial activity, particularly in heavy industrial sectors that consume more energy and spew more effluents, has already ebbed, the problem of pollution is less acute. Yet some of the energy conservation and recycling measures followed by them could be lessons. More important, though, are the sorts of solutions that cities in China have been able to find. Ít is a combination of these lessons that Indians must adopt to tackle air pollution in its large cities. And they have to be implemented constantly; not episodically.

ALSO READ: Biofuel Push Will Help Farmers, Curb Pollution

In China, sprawling metropolises such as Beijing and Shanghai made headlines because of uncontrolled pollution levels less than 10 years ago. Today, things have improved. The Chinese government and authorities have taken significant steps to combat air pollution. They’ve implemented strict emission standards for vehicles and industries. Investments in renewable energy, afforestation, and urban green spaces have also been done to improve air quality.

The key lies in implementation. City states such as Delhi and its burgeoning satellite cities of Gurgaon, Noida, and Faridabad, have not had big success with controlling construction activity. In a developing country with a population as large as that of India’s and one that is constantly urbanising, construction becomes a constant activity as demand for housing grows unabated. Then there is the difficult task of zoning in urban areas. Despite decades of effort, polluting factories and manufacturing facilities merge with residential areas in Indian cities, which often become messy sprawls of residential and commercial activity.

Vehicular traffic in Indian cities continues to grow. The number of vehicles in Delhi and NCR is estimated at more than 15 million by some sources. Despite periodic expansions, the area’s public transport system is overcrowded and as the number of middle-income households increases, the number of personal vehicles such as cars and two-wheelers increases too. Many of these add to the emissions that contribute to air pollution.

Integrating pollution control and development

To tackle pollution, India must integrate environmental concerns into its overall development plans. Rather than treating pollution control as an isolated issue, it should be part of a broader strategy. This would require involving multiple stakeholders including different government agencies, local communities, industries, and NGOs. Collaborative efforts can lead to better policy formulation and implementation.

India will also have to revamp and make its real-time data on pollution more accurate. That could help monitor the results of anti-pollution efforts better. It could also improve public accountability and drive more action on the part of communities and individuals.

Nothing works as well as carrots and sticks, particularly when they are in the form of incentives and penalties. India could introduce special taxes on polluting activities (e.g. emissions, waste disposal) and provide incentives for cleaner practices (e.g. renewable energy adoption). Industries have to be held responsible and accountable for pollution. Penalties for non-compliance should be significant.

To be sure, India does have fiscal incentives to address pollution and encourage more sustainable practices. These measures aim to make waste generation, energy production, and transportation sectors more environment-friendly. India has proposed incentives worth $12.4 billion to encourage power plants to install emission-curbing equipment and develop infrastructure for electric vehicles (EVs). What it needs to work on, however, is to make the penalties stricter for polluters.

Indian industry needs to adopt less polluting, cleaner technologies, which can be a challenge and also expensive in a developing country. And invest in more research and development for sustainable solutions.

Finally, there is the challenge of urban planning. Can Indian cities continue to expand in unlimited ways? Should urban planners and city authorities curb such unfettered urban expansion and instead aim at compact cities that are well-planned urban areas with efficient public transportation, pedestrian-friendly infrastructure, and green spaces.

Ideally, such cities would encourage waste reduction and recycling and develop efficient waste management systems. They would limit plastic waste through bans, alternatives, and awareness campaigns. And their residents would have access to education about the impact of pollution on health and the environment.

All that sounds like a great utopian dream. Yet, while it is true that achieving development targets hand-in-hand with environmental goals is a balancing task that is fraught with huge challenges, it is not impossible to achieve. In some parts of large cities in India, pedestrian zones, albeit tiny and limited, are being developed; school students have been active in their efforts to spread awareness of the harms of pollution; and there is the beginning of a shift towards alternative energy to fuel growth. Sadly, though, a lot more will have to be done. Tackling air pollution in India’s big cities is a full-time assignment. Not a seasonal job.

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BJP is India’s Most Powerful Political Magnet

Under Modi, BJP is Now India’s Most Powerful Political Magnet

It’s a phenomenon that has become so common that it is almost a part of the official protocol. When an incumbent administration has to announce a budget barely months before it seeks reelection, that budget invariably becomes a crowd pleasing one – full of sops, tax rebates, and other carrots that are proffered as enticement to voters. Last week, however, when the finance minister announced India’s interim budget, it was not especially laden with those customary come hither propositions. That’s because Prime Minister Narendra and his regime that is completing its second term and will be seeking a third at the elections, scheduled for April and May this year, expect that they will be a shoo-in for the voters.

In fact, to many it could seem that for Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the elections will be a one-horse race. At the national level, opposition to the ruling regime is in shambles; the multi-party Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), which was formed last July, has all but disintegrated; and the BJP’s strength and prominence has grown without any signs of abatement.

The BJP has become so dominant that Modi’s government didn’t have to throw in sops or lollipops for voters in last week’s budget. Yes, it had the routine nods and doffs of the hat aimed at the poorest sections of the population: it has focussed on the rural sector and agriculture by boosting several schemes. Yet, it has also cut food subsidies, a delicate area, and not lowered income tax rates. In fact, it will lean on higher tax collections for the coming financial year.

In an election year, an interim budget lets an incumbent government spend until the new administration takes over. If the ruling regime is reelected it can seek approval for a full budget.

That eventuality looks like a certainty. Few doubt that the Modi regime can be ousted in the coming elections. For one, there seems to be no alternative to challenge it. Potential challengers have mainly self-destructed or become weakened. Some former challengers have crossed over to join the BJP or ally with it. Most recently, Nitish Kumar, Bihar’s longest lasting chief minister (last week he was sworn in for a record ninth time) jumped ship to join the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which is led by the BJP. Ironically, Kumar was the main architect of the opposition alliance, I.N.D.I.A., formed with the sole purpose of ousting the Modi regime. Amen!

Kumar isn’t the only renegade in contemporary Indian politics to clamber aboard the BJP’s bandwagon. Politicians of all stripes from various opposition parties have jumped onto it. It may serve us well to remember that the word “bandwagon” was coined by Phineas T. Barnum, also known as P T Barnum, a famous 19th century American circus owner and showman. He created the term to describe the wagons that transported a circus band. The circus metaphor does fit Indian politics rather well.

Among those who have joined the BJP have been many of its erstwhile critics and sworn opponents. But then politics, at least in India, is marked by promiscuity. Some Congressmen who ditched their party to join the BJP have also been rewarded (or was it a quid pro quo?) by ministerial portfolios in Modi’s Cabinet. The current civil aviation minister, Jyotiraditya Scindia, 53, was in the Congress party for nearly 20 years before joining the BJP in 2020; and the minister for micro, small and medium enterprises, Narayan Rane, 71, also left the Congress to join the BJP in 2019. Rane is not a shy party-hopper. Before joining the Congress he was with the Shiv Sena. 

There are many other political leaders, who were originally opposed to the BJP, but now members of that party. Jitin Prasad, 50, a longtime member of the Congress party who has also served as minister in the Congress regime, is now part of the BJP and a minister in the Uttar Pradesh government led by BJP’s Yogi Adityanath. In 2017, the veteran Congress leader from Karnataka, S.M. Krishna, once a foreign minister, joined the BJP. Other prominent politicians who have joined the BJP include the Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, 55, who left the Congress in 2014; Mukul Roy, 69, who left the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal to join the BJP in 2017. In some states such as Uttar Pradesh, there have been televised events organised where opposition politicians have formally joined the BJP ceremoniously.

What makes the BJP a political lodestone in India? A simple answer to that is power. Politics, purists would say, is a pursuit of a calling rather than a career. In a democracy such as in India, the copybook definition of a politician’s ambition would be the urge to serve the people. However, in reality it is the power that politics can bestow on an individual and burnish his importance and status that drives many politicians. 

The BJP won the elections and formed the government at the Centre in 2014 and has during the past 10 years decimated opposition at the national level. It is without doubt the most powerful political party in the country and one that offers the most potential for ambitious political leaders. In contrast, the Congress, once referred to as India’s Grand Old Party, is a weak shadow of itself. It has repeatedly lost elections at the Centre as well as in the states: in Parliament, the Congress now has 47 of the 543 seats. In 1984, when Rajiv Gandhi became Prime Minister, it had 414. His son, Rahul, now the party’s most prominent member, is witnessing the Congress’ steady and devastating decline. Of the 28 Indian states, the BJP rules 12 and is part of the ruling alliance in four more. The Congress is part of the ruling alliance in only five states. 

The steady decline of the Congress’ importance and sway in Indian politics is one of the chief reasons why ambitious politicians from that party have been disillusioned and have decided to ditch it and join the Modi bandwagon. It is for the same reason that veteran politicians of regional parties such Nitish Kumar and his Janata Dal (United) have chosen to ally with Modi and bury earlier differences with him.

The BJP on its part has welcomed the influx of such renegades. First, many of the new entrants are leaders with considerable influence in their constituencies and can obviously beef up the BJP’s electoral might further. Second, their departure can also serve to weaken their former parties, which is good for the BJP. Some of the younger joinees have good track record as ministers–for instance Scindia or Prasad – and, therefore, can strengthen the BJP’s administrative firepower. They can also help win elections.

Meanwhile, the BJP has been quietly, and a bit invisibly, deepening and strengthening itself. It has become a significant force in Indian politics, and its appeal is multifaceted. While the party has been associated with Hindu nationalism and has been accused of being anti-minorities, it has also been successful in projecting an image of good governance and welfare schemes that appeal to a broad section of the electorate. 

The BJP’s leadership, particularly Prime Minister Modi, is seen as strong and decisive, and the party has been successful in expanding its base and electoral presence. Last December, Modi retained his position as the world’s most popular leader with an approval rating of 76 per cent, as per the data released by US-based consultancy firm ‘Morning Consult’.

Additionally, the BJP’s well-oiled and lethal electoral campaign machine, which leaves nothing to chance, has been a significant factor in its success. The reasons for politicians leaving other parties to join the BJP may include disillusionment with their former party’s internal dynamics, leadership, and electoral prospects, but it is also the appeal of the BJP’s ideology, governance, and electoral success that has drawn them to it. Therefore, the BJP’s appeal is not limited to its association with Hindu nationalism, and it has been successful in projecting an image of good governance and welfare schemes that appeal to a broad section of the electorate.

Some observers feel that the BJP lacks a lineup of successors beyond Modi, 73, and home minister Amit Shah, 59, the two most prominent faces in the government. This may not be true.  The party has a history of grooming and promoting leaders from within its ranks and is far less dynastic than many other India political parties such as the Congress or even regional parties where the route to leadership is often limited to those with family ties and connections. 

Although some BJP leaders have been “sidelined”, including Shivraj Chouhan who was chief minister of Madhya Pradesh, Sushil Modi, who was deputy chief minister of Bihar, Vasundhara Raje, who was chief minister of Rajasthan for two terms, and Raman Singh, who served as chief minister of Chhattisgarh for 15 years, the BJP does have future leaders that it has been grooming.

Some of the younger leaders who have begun making a mark in the BJP and could be watched in the future include Himanta Biswa Sarma, who has emerged as the party’s point person in the north-east; Manoj Tiwari, 53, who the the Delhi BJP leader and whose influence has been growing; Tejasvi Surya, 33, an MP from Bangalore, known for his articulate speeches and strong conservative views; Poonam Mahajan, 43, another MP who is seen as a rising star in the party; and Sarbananda Sonowal, 61, an MP from Assam and currently a minister in the Modi cabinet. 

These are just a few names of leaders to watch from the BJP. It will be worth the while to watch how these younger breen of party leaders are groomed and given more responsibility in the coming years. Also worth watching is how many more leaders from other parties make a beeline to what has become India’s most powerful political magnet.

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Paltu Kumar: The Flip-Flop Man of Indian Politics Strikes Again

Paltu Kumar: The Flip-Flop Man of Indian Politics Strikes Again

When things turn darkly cynical, seek solace in humour. In Indian politics that’s a truism. When early rumours swirled last week that Nitish Kumar, the veteran Bihar politician, chief minister of that state, and the main mover behind the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.), last summer’s alliance of more than two dozen Indian opposition parties, was likely to jump ship and ally instead with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) once again, a colleague reminded me that many have named him “Paltu” Kumar, which roughly translated could mean “Flip-flop” Kumar, a reference to the series of switches in allegiance that have marked the 72-year-old political career. 

Last Saturday, Kumar, who has been the longest serving chief minister, resigned from the post (he will stay on as caretaker chief minister till a new government is formed) and announced that he was joining the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the BJP-led alliance, headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi that is in power at the Centre. 

The “Flip-flop” nickname fits Kumar well. In his political career, which he began in the 1970s as a student socialist leader, has changed his political alliances so many times that it can be easy to lose count of those changes. Here’s a recap of his political moves through the years (make of them what you will):

In 1996, Kumar left the Janata Dal and formed the Samata Party with the late George Fernandes, and allied with the BJP-led NDA. In 2003, he merged the Samata Party with the Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), and continued to be part of the NDA. 

Then, in 2013, he broke away from the NDA over the BJP’s decision to project Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate, and joined the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), led by the Congress. But barely four years later, in 2017, he again switched sides and rejoined the NDA, after breaking the Grand Alliance that his party had forged with the Bihar regional party, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress, over corruption charges against his then deputy, Tejashwi Yadav.

Then, in 2022, Kumar resigned as chief minister and removed his party from the NDA, announcing that his party had rejoined the Grand Alliance, and would form a governing coalition with the RJD and the Congress. And two years later, last weekend, he resigned and joined the NDA once again. Yes, phew!

During all these hop-on, hop-off activities, one thing has remained constant: with the exception of a year, Kumar has remained chief minister of his state for the past nearly 20 years. Kumar has always defended his moves as being motivated by what is good for the people of Bihar and the good of the state. And as well as being known for his frequent changes of political loyalties he is also known for his development-oriented policies and governance in Bihar, which remains among the poorest and most economically backward states of India. And the fact that voters have in election after election, chosen to repose their faith in Kumar is indication of both his popularity and approval as the state’s chief minister.

There is, however, another consequence of Kumar’s latest move to hop aboard the alliance headed by Modi, an erstwhile arch political rival of his. After all, in 2013, when the BJP projected Modi as the NDA’s prime ministerial candidate, it was the reason why Kumar decided to exit the alliance. And, last summer, Kumar was the main political leader behind the formation of I.N.D.I.A., whose raison d’etre or reason for being was to ensure that Modi and the BJP do not win the 2024 parliamentary elections, which will be held in a few months. 

That possibility, already quite unlikely, will now be dealt another blow as one of I.N.D.I.A.’s most prominent members doesn’t just quit the alliance but joins its main foe. In June 2023, it was Kumar who convened a meeting of 16 opposition parties in Patna, the capital of Bihar, to propose a new political front to challenge the ruling NDA government led by the BJP in the 2024 general elections. The alliance was formally created in July 2023 in Bengaluru, where 10 more parties joined the group and adopted the name I.N.D.I.A. The alliance currently has 26 parties, including two national and 24 regional parties, and accounts for 142 seats in the Lok Sabha and 98 seats in the Rajya Sabha. 

I.N.D.I.A. is led by the Congress party, with that party’s president, Mallikarjun Kharge, as the chairperson but besides the departure of Kumar, the alliance faces other problems. Many of the alliance’s constituents disagree over several issues. Originally, I.N.D.I.A. had hoped to reach a consensus and put up one candidate to fight the BJP or its allies’ nominees in each of India’s parliamentary constituencies. It had also been expected to reach a consensus on fielding a prime ministerial candidate to take on Modi. None of these appears to have happened.

Seat-sharing has been an especially sore point. The Trinamool Congress leader and West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee recently said that her party would fight the elections independently and not back a consensus candidate; and even before he quit the alliance, Kumar’s supporters have been demanding that he be projected as the prime ministerial candidate. Then there have been schisms and rifts elsewhere: the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Congress have been sparring over seat sharing in states such as Punjab, Delhi and Haryana. And in Kerala, the Congress and the CPI(M), traditional adversaries in the state, are unlikely to agree on a common candidates’ list. 

On the other side, Kumar’s crossover to the NDA will strengthen the alliance’s prospects, particularly in Bihar where there are 40 parliamentary seats. As of now, after the 2019 elections, the BJP has 17 of those seats, while Kumar’s JD (U) has 16, the Lok Janshakti Party has 6, the Grand Alliance 1 and the Congress 1. With Kumar aligning with the BJP, the NDA’s increased heft in the state is obvious.

Whatever motivates Mr Flip-Flop to keep switching sides, his latest manoeuvre further bolsters the near certainty of a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

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Rahul Gandhi Missed Hindutva Train

Hanuman Mask or Not, Rahul Gandhi Missed the ‘Hindutva’ Train Long Back

When Rahul Gandhi, scion of the Congress Party’s most-dominant dynastic family, the Nehru-Gandhis, kicked off his new yatra or journey (he will cover 4,000 kilometres, partly on foot and partly by vehicles) last week, he carefully chose to start in Manipur, a north-eastern state that has been torn by violent ethnic clashes over the past eight months. The clashes are between the majority Meitei community and the minority Kuki community in which more than 200 people have been killed, women abused, and thousands displaced from their homes.

Yet, even as Manipur’s problems continue to simmer there has been inadequate effort by the Indian government to calm things down there and few central government leaders have showed up to express their concern and commitment to sorting things out in a state where an alliance of the Prime Minister’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the National People’s Party, Naga People’s Front, and the Lok Janshakti Party is in power since 2022.

Considering that, Gandhi’s choice of Manipur as the starting point for his Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra (Unite Bharat Justice March), which follows last year’s Bharat Jodo Yatra, is an astute one. In his new yatra, he will go from East to West, cover 110 of India’s 543 parliamentary constituencies in 15 states, and finish in Mumbai in 66 days.

By then we will be well into the second half of March and there will be barely two months left for the 2024 parliamentary elections. Gandhi’s yatra is a crucial part of his party’s election campaign. After Manipur, towards last weekend, Gandhi hit Assam where at a temple, he wore a mask depicting the face of the Hindu god, Hanuman or Bajrang Bali and held aloft his hand Hanuman’s most familiar accessory, a battling mace. 

On X, Gandhi has posted to say that his yatra or journey “is a balm of unity and love on the soul of India wounded by the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) politics of division and neglect”. It is really all about the elections. Gandhi and his party have been pulling out all the stops to try and reverse their dismal fortunes in India’s election–both at the parliamentary level as well as in the states. The desperation is understandable. It is part of the government in just three of India’s 28 states, while the BJP rules in 12 and is part of coalition governments in three.

The Congress and Gandhi are trying every trick in the book to try and fare better in next May’s parliamentary polls. With India in the throes of a massively orchestrated and feverish wave of Hinduism, which is the religion of 80% of Indians (1.12 billion people), the Congress has in recent times tried to display empathy towards the majority community. Gandhi’s Hanuman mask and mace waving; his visits to temples; quoting of religious texts and the Bhagavad Gita; and hob-nobbing with religious leaders of the Hindu faith are all the party’s way of trying to respond to the BJP’s pronounced emphasis in its politics on Hindutva and Hinduism.

Not to much avail, though. The Congress’ feeble attempts to consort with the religion of the majority in India will barely be noticed in the high-decibel, high-definition ramp up that is happening in the country. Even as you read this, the Shri Ram Janmabhoomi Temple will be formally opened by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The frenzy over that carefully-timed event has been unprecedented. A huge ceremony will take place at the site of the temple in Ayodhya, in Uttar Pradesh, where it has been built on the site of the demolished Babri Masjid, a 16th century mosque, which sparked religious violence in 1992. The event is seen as a symbol of Hindu nationalist ambition and a source of anxiety for many Muslims in Ayodhya.

While massive security measures have been taken and special trains and choppers have been arranged for visitors, the fervour has also spread elsewhere. In India, several states have declared a holiday for schools; government offices will be partially shut. The event will also be livestreamed so Hindus across the country and elsewhere in the world can watch it. Indian embassies across the world and a sponsored screen at Times Square in New York will provide the live screening of the Ayodhya inauguration.

In the immediate run-up to this, we have seen viral social media posts that show Prime Minister Modi taking holy dips in the sea in southern India near a revered temple; and feed cows on the occasion of Makar Sankranti at his residence (the act is believed to yield benediction).

The extent of how much religion (read Hinduism) is embedded in the politics of Modi and his party (and by proxy the central government) is far greater than what those recent social media posts of the Prime Minister showed him doing before the temple’s inauguration. It is deep and inseparable.

Seen against that, what Congress may be doing to try and polish its Hindu credentials seem ineffective. Pathetic, even.

For the Congress and Gandhi, the Hindutva train left the station long ago. And they have missed it. The mask that Gandhi wore last week in Assam only made him look silly. But that’s a look that he seems to have perfected over the years.

Gandhi, who is 53, is what you would call a middle-aged politician although his party’s leaders (read loyal sycophants of the Nehru-Gandhi family) would insist that he is young. In the 20 years since he has been in active politics, if you look at it carefully, he hasn’t really achieved much. True, he has been elected to Parliament multiple times; and held official party positions, some of them reluctantly, but not much else. His election strategies have not worked; he has not been able to stem the tide of exodus from his party, particularly of talented and competent younger leaders who have usually left to join Modi’s BJP; and Gandhi’s speeches and pronouncements on politics, governance, and the economy have been of middling standards, quite often also demonstrating how embarrassingly naive and confused he can be.

Yet, Gandhi’s rallies and the yatras are well attended events. Crowds have been impressive at the public meetings he addresses; and when the yatras he does arrive at different cities and towns, thousands throng him. That, however, has not much to do with him as a politician but as a celebrity. It can seem most cynical to say this but Gandhi is half-Italian, and is nearly White–features that many Indians would describe as handsome (although I am not sure about that unkempt beard he grew last year)–and the crowds of people that gather at his rallies and meetings probably come to get a glimpse of him as they probably would have, had he been, say, a Bollywood actor. Not perhaps to hear what he says or with an intent to vote for him or his party. Entertainment and not elections are on their minds when they go to get a glimpse of him.

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Countdown To Modi's Third Term Begins

The Countdown to Narendra Modi’s Third Term Begins

The next time you are at an Indian railway station and it happens to be one of the hundred that has a selfie point, you can pass the time while waiting for your train by taking a photograph of yourself along with a life size replica of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The selfie points, if they’re of the permanent sort, cost around ₹6.25 lakh, while the temporary ones are cheaper at ₹1.25 lakh.

Railway stations aren’t the only places where you can take a selfie with the Prime Minister (albeit in a life-size 3-D avatar) beside you. Such points have also been installed at museums, parks, and other public spaces. According to media reports, universities and even the armed forces have been instructed to install them. One source says the total number of selfie points is 822.

At New Delhi’s international airport terminal, as you walk to the departure gates, there are several booths with Modi’s image along with that of Swami Gyananand where you can take a selfie. Swami, an Indian Mahamandaleshwar saint, is known for his research on Bhagavad Gita, the 700-verse Hindu scripture. He has also founded another organisation to globally promote the Gita.

The ubiquity of images and pictures of Modi, on posters, banners, official documents, and other commonly used official papers and forms for the past 10 years that he has been Prime Minister is not new but now their omnipresence seems truly larger than life and, quite clearly, this has much to do with the forthcoming parliamentary elections, which Modi and his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would like to win and extend the tenure of its rule by another five years.

Last December 31, The Guardian’s headline of an article said: BJP win in India’s 2024 general election ‘almost an inevitability’. It was written by Hannah-Ellis Petersen, the newspaper’s South Asia correspondent, and it described how, with less than six months left for the election (in which 900 million Indians will be eligible to vote) the Modi government had launched a nationwide campaign to highlight its achievements “despite criticisms of politicising government bureaucracy and resources for campaigning purposes”.

The Guardian’s use of the word “inevitability” in its headline (although in the article it is attributed to a prominent Indian policy analyst) displays the newspaper’s bias against Modi and his government, which are seen by the West as pushing a Hindu nationalist agenda and creating insecurity among minorities. Nearly 80% of Indians are Hindus and 14% are Muslims. As a percentage of India’s population of more than 1.4 billion, viewed against any global population statistics, both those numbers are huge.

Still, the view from the West could miss the reality on the ground in India. For instance, The Guardian article says: “At state and national level, the apparatus of the country has been skewed heavily towards the BJP since Modi was elected in 2014. He has been accused of overseeing an unprecedented consolidation of power, muzzling critical media, eroding the independence of the judiciary and all forms of parliamentary scrutiny and accountability and using government agencies to pursue and jail political opponents.”

To be sure, many Indian observers also agree that since the BJP-led regime came to power, elections, especially in the more populous northern and central states, have been marked by religious polarisation. And that inequality remains one of the biggest concerns and challenges. The richest 1% of Indians own 58% of wealth, while the richest 10% of Indians own 80% of the wealth. This trend has consistently increased–so the Indian rich are getting richer much faster than the poor, widening the income gap.

Also sadly, despite over 70 years’ of effort by the Indian government, the caste system (or social inequity) also continues to keep widening that gap. People coming from the marginalised sections of caste-based social categories, continue to be directly impacted in terms of their opportunities, access to essential utilities, and their potential as a whole.

The ordinary Indian voter, however, sees Modi as a strongman, a hero who has not only tried to enhance India’s prestige and status on the global stage–last year it hosted as rotational president the G-20 summit; and sent a space mission to land on the moon–but also tried to help improve the average Indian’s economic fortunes. India’s economy has grown at a higher rate than most large economies (although inequality has not been impacted significantly); a slew of subsidies aimed at the poor have benefited millions; and universal digital services have ensured that beneficiaries are not denied what they have the right to receive. Infrastructure, especially roads have improved impressively and so has public access to medical facilities and hygiene.

A well-known publicity and communications strategist of the Congress party, which is the BJP’s main challenger from the Opposition, admits that India will go to the polls with a clear advantage for Modi and his party. In 2019, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which is led by the BJP, won 353 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, or lower house of Parliament. The BJP on its own won 303 seats. This time, the Congress strategist who spoke on conditions of anonymity, said he wouldn’t be surprised if the NDA wins 350 seats, a staggering 65% of the total seats.

It is a fact that the Indian mainstream media is no longer a platform where criticism of the ruling regime or a focus on problem areas such as religious polarisation is encouraged. In fact, India’s largest newspapers and TV channels are dominated by hagiographic coverage of the Modi-led regime. Even “independent” media outlets, most of which are small and lack robust business models, have begun to shy away from criticising the government or its policies, some of them because they fear retaliation in the shape of tax raids or other regulatory action.

No one really cares. Last year, several leading Indian artists were “commissioned” to make artwork themed on the Prime Minister’s monthly addresses to the nation, Mann Ki Baat. The event, which occurs once a month, is aired by the state-owned TV channels (and co-telecast by many private channels as well) and streamed on the internet and social media platforms. The commissioning of artists marked the 100th episode of Mann Ki Baat and the art that they created was exhibited under the title Jana Shakti (people’s power) at Delhi’s prestigious National Gallery of Modern Art.

Last week it was announced that the Opposition alliance of nearly 30 parties, called I.N.D.I.A., would be headed by the Congress Party’s president, Mallikarjun Kharge. I.N.D.I.A., which stands for ‘Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance’, is a group of opposition parties, including the Congress, which have joined forces to challenge the NDA, led by the BJP, and stop it from securing a third consecutive term at the Centre in the Lok Sabha elections. Most Indians think that it will end in a whimper. And that Modi, 73, and his party will win the elections decisively and secure a third term for the regime he heads.

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