Gandhis, INS Vikrant and Pakistan floods

Five Things That Happened Last Week (And what to make of them)

Step 1 for the Congress today is for the Gandhis to step aside

In 1969, when the Indian National Congress party split after the late Indira Gandhi was expelled from the party and she formed her own party, then known as Congress (R), the “R” standing for Requisitionists, her new party’s electoral symbol was a cow with a suckling calf. With that symbol, Ms. Gandhi won a landslide victory in 1971. Her long stints as Prime Minister of India (1966-77; and then again from 1980-84) were marked by historic events of both, of the favourable and adverse types. All that is part of history.

As is that symbol of her party, a suckling calf and a cow. The story about why that symbol was dropped and, instead, the open palm (which is still the Congress party’s electoral symbol) was adopted is probably apocryphal but like many such tales it is one that is amusing. The story goes that in the immediate aftermath of the Emergency, the calf and cow symbol became the butt of jokes with Ms. Gandhi being compared to the cow and her son Sanjay, whose notoriety during the Emergency period is well known, to the calf.

Nearly half a century later, the Indian National Congress party’s president is Indira’s daughter-in-law and the widow of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi. And her son, Rahul, is the next most important leader in the party. And going by the current turmoil in the party and the perception that the mother and son duo are a sort of autocratic power centre family in the Congress, the calf and cow symbol could be an apt symbol for it.

The most recent notable departure of a leader from the Congress has been that of the former Union minister and former chief minister of Jammu & Kashmir, Ghulam Nabi Azad. Azad has unambiguously highlighted the autocracy in the party, particularly pointing to Rahul Gandhi and his manner of leadership. He has not been the only one to do so. Several leaders, including relatively younger ones (in the Congress that can mean anyone under 60; Rahul himself is 52 and still referred to as being a young leader), have left the party in recent years and months and while few have been as articulate about their disenchantment with the Gandhi family’s leadership style as Azad, the reasons for their departure are probably not dissimilar.

Much has been written about Rahul Gandhi’s inability to lead his party; organise and revamp it; or win elections. So much so that except for die-hard Gandhi family loyalists–a breed that is rapidly going extinct–to everyone it is quite evident that Rahul is not up for the job of leading, reviving, or running his party with any outcome of meaningful consequence. It may be a bit unfair to slam the “young” leader, though. After all, these sort of things happen. The son of Bollywood’s greatest superstar actor followed his father into acting and was a notable failure; another son of one of India’s best-known opening batsmen in cricket followed his father into playing cricket but flopped and no one really knows or cares about what he is doing.

Such examples abound in almost every field. So it is in politics. Rahul is the scion of an illustrious Indian political family–his father, grandmother, and great grandfather were all prime ministers of India. His great great grandfather was the president of the Congress party in pre-Independence India. But since he himself embarked on a career in Indian politics 18 years ago, his achievements have been unremarkable.

Some Congress leaders absurdly talk about how Gandhi, a middle-aged man, is still evolving and needs more time. The fact is that under him and his mother Sonia, who will turn 76 this year, the Congress has all but collapsed. The party has fared abysmally poorly in parliamentary elections; and has continued to lose its base and power in regions, including states that were once its bastion.

An addict, whether he is addicted to alcohol, drugs or even sex, can only rehabilitate himself if he acknowledges his problem. An addict in denial cannot be cured no matter how expensive or exclusive the rehab facility is to which you send him. Congress’s main problem is its leadership (read: the Gandhis). And the only way to revive it (or prevent its absolute and total collapse) is if the party recognises that and excises the Gandhis from it. Is that likely to happen? Because the party is all about the Gandhis, it can happen if, like the archetypal confessional alcoholic, the Gandhis decide that they are the problem and not anyone else. Step one for the Congress today is for the Gandhis to step aside.

Did India miss the chance to be a good neighbour?

The Biblical phrase “thou shalt love thy neighbour as thyself” is from the Book of Leviticus in the Old Testament about the ethic of reciprocity known as the Golden Rule or the Great Commandment. And while reference to a Biblical phrase can be a bit out of place in the atmosphere that prevails in public discourse–both in the social media as well as in mainstream discussions–it is is worth heeding that phrase, “love thy neighbour”, particularly in the aftermath of one of the most tragic and devastating floods to have hit India’s neighbour, Pakistan.

It is a climate disaster of an unprecedented kind. “A monsoon on steroids” is how the United Nations secretary-general Antonio Guterres described the natural calamity that has affected millions of Pakistanis and taken the lives of thousands.

India is Pakistan’s big neighbour. The two countries share a 3,323-kilometre border. India has a population of 1.4 billion compared to Pakistan’s 220 million (for perspective, Uttar Pradesh has a population of 234 million). India’s GDP is expected to reach US$3000 billion this year, while Pakistan’s is expected to be only US$292 billion.

But India and Pakistan are also in conflict. The two have been fighting several wars since Independence and the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent in 1947. The main dispute is over Kashmir where India and Pakistan are conflicted over who has sovereignty over how much of the area. India also alleges that Pakistan offers safe passage to separatists and terrorists who operate in Kashmir.

When the floods wreaked havoc across the border, it took some time before India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi came out with a statement about it. In a tweet last week, Modi said: “Saddened to see the devastation caused by the floods in Pakistan. We extend our heartfelt condolences to the families of the victims, the injured and all those affected by this natural calamity and hope for an early restoration of normalcy,” But did Modi or the Indian government offer any help to Pakistan? No. 

As a neighbour and more resourceful nation, the Indian government could have offered help in the form of medical assistance, food, help in evacuation of the thousands stranded and homeless because of the floods and so much more. Till now, there has been none of that.

It has been a missed opportunity for India. The disputes with Pakistan are long-standing and will probably continue for a long time to come. However, humanitarian assistance that is aimed at benefiting the common people who have been hit by a natural calamity such as the floods in Pakistan could have shown that India can rise above the disputes and conflicts with its neighbour and set an example of magnanimity in international relations.

An aircraft carrier is commissioned; politics ensues

Political bickering accompanies even notable achievements in India’s development. Recently, when the INS Vikrant, India’s first indigenously developed aircraft carrier, was commissioned by Prime Minister Modi to the Indian Navy, and marks the government’s efforts to attain self-reliant development for India, an effort popularised by the term Atmanirbhar Bharat.

Development of the aircraft carrier makes India one of the few countries in the world to attain the capability to build a warship of this proportion. As many as 26 MiG-29K fighter jets, 4 Kamov Ka-31 helicopters, 2 HAL Dhruv NUH utility helicopters and 4 MH-60R multi-role helicopters can operate from INS Vikrant. It is 262 metres long, with a top speed of 28 knots, and endurance of 7,500 nautical miles. INS Vikrant has 2,300 compartments and can accommodate a crew of 1700 seamen. 

The commissioning of the carrier was soured by comments from the opposition Congress party leaders who said the Prime Minister does not acknowledge continuity in development, a reference to the fact that the work on the aircraft carrier had begun at Cochin Shipyards in 2009, way before the present government had come to power. The protests seem to suggest that the Congress wanted the Prime Minister to give its earlier regime some credit for development of the warship. Petty politics. 

Whither respect for women in India?

Recently, a video surfaced showing the husband of a woman member of the legislative assembly (MLA) slapping her in public. The video shows Baljinder Kaur, MLA from the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) being slapped by her husband, also an AAP leader in the state.

The video has gone viral and so have the reactions. Women activist organisations have said they will initiate suo motu action against Sukhraj Singh, the husband.

The bigger issue, however, is that in India, gender equality remains a pie-dream and women’s rights are in peril–no matter the status and social standing of individuals. It is a sad commentary on Indian society.

Elon Musk wants you to have more children

The billionaire investor and businessman Elon Musk whose statements and social media posts are often designed to shock and create sensation has said that people should have more children. “It’s important that people have enough babies to support civilization,” Musk, who himself has 10 children, has said. “If we don’t have enough kids, then we will die with a whimper in adult diapers. And that will be depressing.”

As the world’s population is set to touch 8 billion (it is estimated at 7.97 billion now) and other experts warn of a dramatic catastrophe, Musk’s latest exhortation comes across as being eccentrically contrarian. But then controversy and contrarianism are nothing new for Musk who is the founder, CEO, and Chief Engineer at SpaceX; CEO, and Product Architect of Tesla, Inc. and has an estimated net worth of around US$266 billion, which makes him the richest man in the world.

Five Things That Happened Last Week (And what to make of them)

Release of 11 gang-rapists is as dastardly as their crime

Fifteen years after they were convicted for the brutal and horrific rape of a pregnant woman during the Gujarat riots of 2002, 11 men who were sentenced to life imprisonment, walked out of a prison in Godhra recently. Their release, ordered by the state government under an old remission policy dating back to1992, set off ripples of shock across India. But when the men, accused and found guilty of the heinous crime, walked out, they were welcomed by a bunch of people with garlands and sweets.

The incident sharpens the focus on two issues. First, it is how the authorities (read government) can brazenly use old laws and archaic provisions to serve purposes that are either politically motivated or communally discriminated against. And second, how the schism of divisiveness in Indian society has been constantly widening. 

There has been widespread outrage against the release of the 11 men who were charged and accused of raping a young pregnant Muslim woman during the communal riots that rocked Gujarat in 2002, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the chief minister of that state and his close aide and current Union home minister Amit Shah was the his home minister in the state. 

The irony of the entire affair– the gang rape, the conviction of the accused and the more recent release of them from prison– is the fact that the woman who was the target of the 11 men who raped her has been constantly named in media reports and official accounts of the case. Everyone, including so-called liberal activists, have been repeating her name everywhere. Does anyone know the names of any of her accused and convicted rapists?

The other aspect of the release of the criminals is the provision of remission. Remission is an act of discretion that an executive authority such as a government of a state or the Centre can exercise. The problem is in the discretionary nature of that power. Discretion is something that has to be used with care. In this case, the state government that ordered the release of the men convicted of a dastardly crime has been used in wantonly.

Congress party should ditch the Gandhis

The only time the Congress party makes news is when negative things happen to it. When it loses elections in state after state it is news. When it fails to muster the requisite number of seats in the Lok Sabha to give it the status of being principal opposition party, it is news. When its dynastic leaders–the Gandhi family–is embroiled in financial scandal (as they have been recently) it is news.

Ao when Ghulam Nabi Azad, 73, and a veteran leader of the party, recently resigned from every post that he had held and the primary membership of the party, it was news that was, unsurprisingly, negative.

In his lengthy resignation letter, Azad, who has held several portfolios in the Union cabinet and has been chief minister of Jammu & Kashmir, has unambiguously charged Rahul Gandhi with “childish behaviour” and immaturity and of letting a “coterie of inexperienced sycophants” run the party.

Those charges are sharp but precise. But they are also too late. The Congress party has been in a state of collapse for a while. Run as a fief by the mother and son duo of Sonia and Rahul, the party and its saga have become a tragic comedy that has long back ceased to be even remotely funny.

While Azad’s departure marks the exit of a veteran leader, the Congress has been losing talented people in droves. The Gandhis clearly have little clue about how to fix the problem in their party. But then that is because they themselves are the problem.

Narendra Modi is a topper… again

Surveys and rankings are always exercises that are disputed. But they have always been popular as “click bait” news that people get drawn to. So, when Morning Consult, a global decision intelligence company, recently released a survey that put India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the top with a 75% approval rating, it caught all the eyeballs.

According to Morning Consult’s survey, Modi’s approval was higher than that of the US president Joe Biden who came fifth with a 41% approval rating and other leaders such as Canadian President Justin Trudeau at 39% and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at 38%. 

While Modi’s detractors will fume and fret over a survey such as this and, as is known, surveys depend on the size and quality of the samples, the fact remains that on the Indian firmament, Modi is head and shoulders above any other political leader of his time.

Adani emerges on the media scene

Globally as well as in India, mainstream media groups have been struggling for a while. Many of them are closely held and not obliged to publicly reveal their financial status. The shift to online consumption of news and other content, which was followed by the decline of print and broadcasting advertising revenues has been the main reason for their plight.

In India, mainstream media is more dependent on advertising revenues than in other markets because subscription revenues have been historically low. This has meant that newsrooms across the country have witnessed downsizing and closures. It has also meant sellouts. And frequently, the buyers have been large business houses with big media ambitions often fuelled by a desire to burnish their image or wield influence on the political system and authorities.

Last week, Gautam Adani, India’s fastest rising billionaire (whose links with the Prime Minister Narendra Modi are well known) took a step towards buying up NDTV, one of the country’s most reputed media houses best known for its television news channel with independent views. Many perceive NDTV as one of the few mainstream media groups that are free of government influence and unafraid to critique the authorities. In that context, Adani’s takeover of the company seems ironic. Does it mean another one will soon bite the dust?

Four Indian women and a Mexican enter a parking lot

In a small Texas town named Piano (population 285,000) a drama unfolded in a parking lot outside a restaurant. Four Indian women, ostensibly naturalised US citizens, who were leaving the restaurant were accosted by a slightly-built woman who hurled racial slurs at them, telling them that they should go back to India. The incident became news because one of the Indian women recorded it on her phone and the clip became viral.

The accuser happened to be a Mexican-American who claimed on camera that she was born in the US and not naturalised like the Indian women, implying that she was superior to them. 

Racism is rampant across the world and Indians often face the brunt of it. The problem often is one of assimilation and integration into cultures that are different. Economic strife, particularly in the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic, can sharpen the divisive animosity against immigrants. The video from Piano is perhaps just a small symptom of a more prevalent trend.

Five Things That Happened Last Week (and what to make of them)

At 75, India is still a young nation

The high point of the past week in India was the celebration on 15 August of the 75th anniversary of the nation’s Independence. While the highlight of the day was Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s address to the nation from Delhi’s historic Red Fort, equally notable was the success of the nationwide campaign, Har Ghar Tiranga, which urged all Indians to hoist the national flag as a symbol of patriotism. 

In his speech, Prime Minister Modi, touched upon various aspects of the nation’s journey since it struggled to fight off the shackles of colonialism. He spoke about the invaluable contributions of freedom fighters and revolutionaries. He urged Indians to shake off the hangover of colonialism by not seeking approval from foreign powers but by judging things in the light of India’s own heritage and traditions. He spoke about empowering women, emphasised the need for achieving self-reliance; and emerging as a developed nation.

But the 75th anniversary of India’s Independence has another interesting aspect to it. For the first time in decades, India’s most prominent politicians, regardless of their ideology, beliefs or party colours, are those who have been born after 1947 when India achieved Independence. Take Prime Minister Modi himself. He was born in 1950, three years after Independence. Or India’s newly-elected President, Droupadi Murmu. She was born even later in 1958, which makes her 64. 

Glance across the spectrum of India’s political parties, and you will come across leaders who are all younger than independent India. In Bihar, where he recently created a kerfuffle by exiting the National Democratic Alliance, chief minister Nitish Kumar is 71. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is 52 and was born 23 years after Independence. His mother, Sonia Gandhi, president of the Congress party, though is probably among the few living Indian political leaders of consequence who is pre-Independence born. She was born in December 1946.

If you look elsewhere, Bahujan Samaj Party’s leader Mayawati, born in 1956, is 66; the feisty chief minister of West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee, is even younger at 59; and Delhi’s chief minister Arvind Kejriwal is only 54. 

As we all know, India is a young nation and it  has the largest youth population in the world. Over half of India’s population of around 1.4 billion is under 30. And as the age of India’s politicians begins to reflect that aspect of the nation’s demography, the average age of India’s prominent leaders will, unsurprisingly, also decline.

Another young politician creates ripples

Speaking of young politicians, in 2019 when Finland’s Sanna Marin became prime minister of her country (population: a little over 5.5 million), she was 34. She will turn 37 this November. Marin has quite a few achievements to her credit. Prominent among these is her much-lauded efforts to lead her government’s efforts during the Corona pandemic, which broke shortly after she had taken charge. Finland’s efforts to control the spread of the pandemic and gear up its healthcare infrastructure to minimise fatalities has won plaudits from around the world.

However, Marin now finds herself in the eye of a curious controversy. Last week a privately recorded video was leaked on social media that showed the young prime minister at a party with revellers, dancing and living it up. In the video, Marin and “her friends”, which included some Finnish celebrities, were seen drinking, dancing and singing. This has created a controversy in the small Nordic nation with many people questioning the propriety of a nation’s leader to party like a teenager and what example it sets for the nation’s citizens. Marin defended herself by saying it was a private party where she had not indulged in any illegal activities but had drunk alcohol moderately and danced, none of which is socially considered to be taboo. 

Some observers pointed out that in the video, some people in the background were heard to refer to drugs such as cocaine. As a response, Marin has said she has never taken drugs and also stated that she had voluntarily taken a drug test after the controversy erupted last week.

The thing is that cultures differ. Not long ago, Marin was in yet another controversy when she had gone out clubbing with her husband and omitted to take her official cell phone with her. The cell phone in question had received messages about how she might have been exposed to people infected with the Coronavirus. Marin had then apologised and the controversy blew over. More recently, she was portrayed in social media posts, fashionably dressed and attending music festivals in Finland.

None of this, in Finnish culture, is anything that raises eyebrows. A public person’s private persona is respected and as long as there is nothing that can be considered as an illegal activity, no one really bothers about it. 

The problem, however, is that when you are the prime minister of a country, you have an international image and status. Finland is in the process of joining NATO. The country shares a 1340-km border with Russia, which is in the midst of a prolonged conflict in Ukraine. Domestically, Finland, as are many other countries, is battling with rising costs of living, inflation, and economic hurdles. In that context, does it behove the Finnish prime minister, however young she might be, to be seen in videos partying like a high-schooler?

Wait, are the Chinese watching? 

Yes, they probably are. Last week, the Indian authorities were concerned that a Chinese research and space-tracking vessel was docked in Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port and this could be the beginning of a concerted move by China to regularly use Sri Lanka as a base for surveillance in the region. 

For all practical purposes, Hambantota is Chinese owned. It was built by China Merchants Port, a conglomerate headquartered in Hong Kong, and it owns 70% of the port’s equity capital. China has free access to the port. As is well known, China also has bases for “logistics” in the Cape of Horn in Africa, and easy access to the Karachi and Gwadar ports in Pakistan. China has a String of Pearls strategy, which is a network of military and commercial facilities and relationships along its sea lines. Ostensibly, this is a strategy to protect its trade interests.

India, obviously, sees this as a concern. With China building more bases in the Indian Ocean region, strategically it could be in a position to threaten India. What has especially bothered India is that the Sri Lankan port is freely used by China, perhaps for surveillance and non-commercial purposes, even though India (and not China) has come to the aid of the island nation with finance and aid when it recently faced acute economic crises.

CBI targets Delhi’s deputy CM

Drama is a de rigueur when it comes to Indian politics. On the same day that the New York Times carried a prominent article on how the Delhi government, under Manish Sisodia, its deputy chief minister who also oversees the education ministry, has achieved remarkable improvement in government-run schools, the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) raided Sisodia’s residence.

The raids were in connection with allegations that the city-state’s new liquor policy had violated rules and had irregularities. 

The Delhi government, run by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Union government, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), have always had a confrontational relationship. Even as the raids and charges flew, BJP leaders accused the Delhi government of planting favourable stories in the foreign media by using money spun from a corrupt liquor policy.

Nine months after Delhi allowed private players to sell liquor in the state, the government withdrew the policy and reinstated the old system where only government agencies could sell liquor at the retail level. The reason for backtracking was partly economic. The private players faced huge licensing fees and price-gouging. The BJP has alleged that in the process of introducing a new policy and then withdrawing it, the Delhi government has made huge financial gains. An allegation that is yet unproved. 

But what is most bizarre is the charge that the Delhi government has used these gains to enable planting favourable stories in international media! The drama goes on.

Japan wants people to drink more

One of the criticisms against the Delhi government’s ill-fated liquor policy was that it would encourage alcoholism because allowing private players would mean more competition and perhaps lower prices. In Indian culture, by and large, alcohol has a social stigma attached to it. 

Apparently, not so in Japan. The Japanese government is worried that young people are not drinking enough. For one, the impact of Covid has meant fewer people go to bars and other drinking establishments. Moreover, Japan is an ageing country demographically and this means there are more old people in Japanese society than there are young. And an old, retired population is unlikely to spend much on alcohol. This has affected the beleaguered Japanese economy’s tax revenues. 

So Japan has launched a campaign that has a competition inviting the public to suggest ways and means of making its citizens drink more alcohol. Different strokes, as they say, for different folks!

Five Things That Happened Last Week (and what to make of them)

Tricolour in every home is a good campaign 

In the majority of nations around the world, the national flag is an object of pride that is revered, adored, and held with respect. In large democracies such as the USA, the national flag can be displayed and adorned by citizens in almost any way they want to. Sometimes this has led to controversy. There have been instances where the flag has been used in clothing (such as in bikinis or T-shirts) or in art form that have been construed as being disrespectful. 

But then, the right to freedom of expression in American society can lead to ludicrous interpretations of what you can do or say and get away with. In most nations, however, the flag is treated with reverence. In many European nations, the national flag is hoisted multiple times during a year: to celebrate events that can range from religious events to birth anniversaries of national icons and other momentous historical events. 

In India, till relatively recently (2002, to be precise), there were restrictions on how the national flag could be hoisted and by whom as well as even the material that it could be made of. The new Flag Code of India did away with it. Now there are no restrictions on members of the general public or institutions from hoisting the national flag as long as it is not perceived to be desecrated or disrespected in any manner.

Recently, under the aegis of the central government and espoused by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has launched a campaign to mark the 75th anniversary of the country’s Independence. Under the campaign citizens have been urged to hoist the national flag at their homes in the run-up to Independence Day on August 15. The campaign, entitled Har Ghar Tiranga, is aimed at invoking the spirit of patriotism among Indians. The effort should be lauded.

In recent times, Indian society has become divisive and extremely polarised.The federal structure of governance in India means that there are two levels of government: one at the central level and the other at the level of the states. The uniqueness of the Indian federal model is the extremely diverse nature of its population and the regional disparities. Language, customs, clothing, food, culture and so many other things are so different between regions that each state in India could easily be considered as a different country.

Then, there is the diversity of religion. While Hindus make up 1.094 billion of the 1.4 billion Indians, if you take the minority communities, in absolute numbers their population is huge.For instance, there are an estimated 204 million Muslims in India. Just for contextual purposes, consider that Russia’s population is 144 million; Germany’s 83.2million; and the UK’s 67.2 million. The fact that the once-latent Hindu majoritarianism has been fanned up of late to become increasingly overt has further sharpened the divisiveness in Indian society. 

In that context, a campaign to revere, celebrate, and respect Indian Tiranga should be welcomed. It could be one way of uniting and bringing together a diverse, multicultural, and often conflicting population. Yes, you could say that it is only symbolic to hoist the tricolour at home but the spirit of patriotism can be one that brings together a sharply diverse society.

A heinous attack on Salman Rushdie

The India-born author Salman Rushdie, 75, was stabbed during an event in New York state last week during an event and had to be hospitalised. Rushdie’s agent said he was on a ventilator and wasn’t able to speak. The author could even lose an eye. 

Ever since Rushdie wrote The Satanic Verses, published in 1988, he has been facing death threats from Islamic fundamentalists. It began with the Iranian leader Ayatollah Khomeini placing a fatwa on him calling for his assassination. Rushdie’s book had portrayed the Prophet Mohammed in a fictionalised version and his interpretation of the Koran had incensed Islamic communities.

Following the fatwa and threat to his life, Rushdie had to spend years in hiding and was granted protection by authorities in the UK and the US.
Last week, a 24-year-old man, identified as Hadi Matar, stabbed Rushdie as he was about to begin a lecture at a literary event. Matar was arrested. Rushdie is still in hospital and has suffered injuries to his neck and abdomen.

The enigma of Nitish Kumar

If you look at the career of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, two things can emerge. First, is his longevity in that office. He first became chief minister of the state in 2000 for a short while. Then, he held the office between 2005 and 2014. And, following the elections in 2015, he has been chief minister of the state since that year. 

The second thing to note about Nitish Kumar is his quick political crossovers. Since 2003, Kumar has been leading the Janata Dal (United). But it is his changing alignments that are notable. Between 2003 and 2013, Kumar aligned with the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Then he left the alliance and opposed it till 2017 when he again rejoined it. Now, in 2022, he has decided to quit the NDA and join the Mahagathbandhan, an alliance of opposition parties that include Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal (United), Indian National Congress (INC), and Left parties including Communist Party of India (CPI), Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) Liberation-CPIML(Liberation) and Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPIM). 

As leader of the Mahagathbandhan, which is in opposition to the NDA, Kumar continues as the chief minister of Bihar and the RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav is the deputy chief minister. Incidentally, RJD was Kumar’s arch rival only till recently. 

The political implication of Kumar’s newest realignment is a bit complex. The next Bihar state assembly elections are scheduled for 2025 so that is not an immediate event. However, there is much speculation about whether Kumar’s recent decision to move away from the NDA is a precursor to a possible plan to pitch himself as a prime ministerial candidate against Narendra Modi when the parliamentary elections are held in 2024. Kumar’s camp denies this but with Kumar’s enigmatic political career, the speculation continues. 

Why mandatory masks in Delhi is a good thing

Last week the Delhi government mandated that masks should be worn in public spaces by everyone once again asCovid cases began to rise in the city. It is a welcome move that ought to be adopted by the authorities in other populous Indian cities.

The several waves of the Covid pandemic that has hit India have revealed a behavioural pattern that is unmistakable. Every time Covid’s spread ebbs, people get back to their old ways, disregarding the precautions of masking or hand hygiene. 

India’s population density, particularly in its large cities, does not afford its citizens the luxury of taking it easy every time the virus’ spread slows down. It is quite clear that the Covid virus is continuing to mutate and new variants are emerging constantly. According to esports, the current variant, albeit milder than the dreaded Delta variant, is the BA.2.75 strain. This strain is believed to be causing the ongoing surge in Covid cases in the National Capital Region (NCR). 

In this context, the Delhi government’s move is one that should be emulated elsewhere.

Will China invade Taiwan? The answer is not unambiguous

The recent surge in Chinese fire drills and continuing incursions by fighter jets and warships into Taiwan’s neighbourhood have given rise to speculation over a possible invasion of Taiwan by China in the near future.

The ongoing tension escalated after the visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi, speaker in the US House of Representatives. China does not recognise Taiwan and aggression towards the island nation has been continuing for years. But will the hostilities lead to an all-out military strike?

That question does not have an easy answer. For one, China has over the past couple of decades built up its military might like never before. Also, its economic strength is at a significantly high level, driven mainly by its manufacturing sector that dominates the globe. 

However, will China risk triggering a worldwide conflict by attacking Taiwan? The consequences of doing that can have both geo-political and economic implications for China that may not be altogether desirable. Experts are divided on China’s next moves and the speculation continues.

Five Things that Happened Last Week (And What to Make of Them)

Instead of whining about a vendetta, the Congress should answer some questions

To anyone who is following the investigation into the National Herald case, the Congress party’s official reaction to interrogation of the party president Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul should seem ludicrous. The Congress, which is in the Opposition, claims that the investigation amounts to political vendetta by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) against its leaders who have done no wrong.

Really? Let’s take a quick look at what the National Herald case is all about. National Herald, published by Associated Journals Ltd. (AJL), was a newspaper started in 1938 by Jawaharlal Nehru along with 5,000 freedom fighters. The newspaper was intended to propagate the views of the more liberal sections of the Indian National Congress. Later it became the mouthpiece of the party. It has a storied history but by the 2000s it began facing financial troubles and had to cease publication in 2008. It is around then that the alleged irregularities which are now being investigated by the Enforcement Directorate, a Union finance ministry agency that fights economic crime, began.

A quick recap: In 2012, the BJP’s former minister and MP, Subramaniam Swamy, registered a complaint against senior leaders of the Congress party alleging serious financial irregularities that involved the National Herald, AJL and other related companies. Here’s what the details of the charges being investigated are: Around 2008-2010, the Congress party gave loans amounting to ₹90 crore to AJL, ostensibly to bail it out of its financial crunch. But, things took a twist in 2010 when a non-profit company called Young Indian was formed (its major shareholders were Ms. Gandhi and her son and some close associates).

The plot now began thickening. The Congress party transferred AJL’s debt of ₹90 crore to Young Indian for an amount of ₹50 lakh. Then, Young Indian converted the debts into equity in AJL. As a result of this latter move, Young Indian (read: mainly Ms. Gandhi and her son) acquired AJL and its assets. Note that word, assets. AJL’s assets are estimated to be around ₹400 crore, which includes real estate and other holdings across several Indian cities.

And there lies the rub. While there are more layers and details to the transaction, the basis of the case that the ED is investigating centres around whether the Congress party and its top leaders have used National Herald’s publishing company as a conduit for personal benefit by breaking several rules–relating to income tax, political party finances, and those governing non-profits. In recent weeks both Ms Gandhi and her son have been interrogated by the ED for several hours; and assets property of the companies involved have been sealed.

It is in this context that the Congress party’s reaction to all of this has to be viewed. The party’s scratched-record refrain has been that it is a political vendetta by the ruling regime against its top leaders who, the party claims, are innocent and have not indulged in any misdoings. On August 2, Congress leader Jairam Ramesh, who also handles communication for the party, tweeted indignantly: “The raids on Herald House, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg are a part of the continued attack against India’s principal opposition—Indian National Congress.”

“India’s principal opposition–Indian National Congress” can seem a little bit comical viewed against the fact that with 53 seats in the Lok Sabha (out of a total of 543) and 31 in Rajya Sabha (out of a total of 245) the Congress is a faint shadow when it comes to its representation in Parliament. But more important is the fact that till date, aside from the whining about “a political vendetta” there has been nothing from the Congress party to counter the specific allegations that the ED is investigating.

Did Young India acquire the assets of AJL by “buying” its debt for a song? If so, what was the motive of a  non-profit, ostensibly not involved in commercial activity, to do that? And, finally, did the top leaders of the party benefit from the deal? Instead of crying hoarse about a vendetta, why can’t the brains trust of the erstwhile “principal opposition–Indian National Congress” respond to those questions?

Killing of Zawahiri and its repercussions

It was ironic that the Taliban regime returned to power in Afghanistan around the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks last year. It has been a topsy-turvy ride for the US and the Taliban in the past 20 years in that besieged country. In 20021, the US tried to overthrow the Taliban, which in itself is a factionalised movement ranging comprising somewhat moderate to ultra-fundamentalist groupings, and which provided safe harbour to terrorist groups such as the Al-Qaeda. The US tried to install a pluralistic, tolerant, and economically viable government in charge. Those efforts failed and when the US exited Afghanistan, the Taliban was back.

Last week, Ayman Mohammed Rabie al-Zawahiri, who was 71, and considered to be a principal architect of the 9/11 attacks, was killed by US drones in a posh neighbourhood in Kabul where he was hiding. The killing of Zawahiri has led to speculation about how the Taliban regime will react to it. 

There is no clear answer. On the one side is the fact that Zawahiri was living in a house owned by a close aide of (and probably at the behest of) Sirajuddin Haqqani, an Islamist militant who is now the Taliban’s interior minister. Haqqani himself is wanted by the FBI, which offers a US$10 million reward for his head. Militant Taliban factions will certainly be chomping at the bit for retaliation against Zawahiri’s killing.

On the flipside is the less confrontational and (relatively) pragmatic part of the Taliban. Afghanistan is now ruled by a government led by acting prime minister Hasan Akhund who took charge in September last year. Akhund and many of his cabinet ministers realise that after decades of turmoil, war, unrest, and economic devastation, Afghanistan needs to reach out globally, particularly to the west. It needs to rebuild its infrastructure: its economic activities need to be normalised; and its citizens need long-deserved peace.

So there are pulls and pressures from different sides on the Taliban leadership. Will it be a move towards development and normalcy? Or will it be a relapse into violence and uncertainty? All eyes or on what is in store for this much-tormented nation.

Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and its business impact

China’s policy on Taiwan is well-known. China’s government opposes Taiwan’s independence and does not recognise the island as a separate country. It believes that Taiwan and mainland China are two parts of a single country’s territory. So when US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi made a visit to Taiwan recently, the Chinese government’s furious reaction was predictable and expected. China condemned the visit; started fire drills in the seas around Taiwan; and unleashed more economic restrictions against the island nation. 

Whether these could escalate into more serious action by China is yet to be seen but the more important aspect of Pelosi’s visit has to do with business. To get a grasp of that, let’s take a look at the market for semiconductors, popularly known as chips, which are at the heart of everything from automobiles to electronic products of every kind. 

For the past two years, the semiconductors market has been facing huge shortages. Partly this is because the demand for semiconductors has shot up–mainly from the auto manufacturers but also other consumers. Also, during the Covid pandemic’s peak, chip manufacturers had to operate at low capacities. The world’s largest chip maker is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which is building a plant in Arizona, and Pelosi discussed with its CEO the subsidies that the US could offer. 

But Pelosi’s visit could also have a negative impact on global business. A Chinese electric car battery manufacturer, CATL, which had plans to invest in a large facility in the US, has reportedly delayed its decision. But on a macro level, things are not so linear. China’s biggest trade partner is the US. China exported US$435 billion to the US in 2020. That is also a sort of trade co-dependency between the two economies; and geo-political muscle flexing over Taiwan might just not be worth it.

Why the Covid scare may not be over yet

On August 6, India registered a total of 19,406 new Covid cases in the preceding 24 hours, bringing the country’s overall Covid tally to 4,41,26,994. Less than 20,000 cases in a country of more than 1.4 billion people is nothing. In statistics much bigger numbers can be discounted as rounding-off errors. 

But should that mean India should relax the precautions regarding the pandemic? Probably not. The total death toll attributed to the pandemic since it spread in India is officially pegged at 527,000 and the number of cases at 44.1 million. Many experts, both within the government agencies and independent ones, however, think that those numbers are huge underestimates. This may be partly because statistical compilation in a nation as diverse and as socio-economically unequal can be a nightmare. Under-reporting is rife. Access to healthcare centres remains patchy in many parts of the country.

The thing is that by now the world has seen how the Covid vaccines have by and large been ineffective in preventing the spread of the rapidly mutating virus. The number of variants of the virus continues to grow and the instances of fully vaccinated (as well as boosted) individuals being diagnosed with a Covid variant is now quite common.

In India, the last three waves of the spread of the virus (particularly the second wave) have been devastating both for the health and well-being of its people, particularly the poor, but also for the economy. Prudence suggests that India, instead of relaxing Covid-related restrictions such as use of masks and limitation of public gathering, think of new norms for living in a world where Covid is not showing any signs of going away. At least not for now.

Truss Vs Sunak saga continues

According to a survey by a Tory activist website,  ConservativeHome, Liz Truss has widened her lead over Rishi Sunak in the race for the UK prime minister’s post: 58% of 180,000 Conservative Party members support her, while 26% support Sunak and 12% are undecided. 

Sunak, who was Chancellor of the Exchequer, is focusing his campaign on his competent handling of the economy, particularly during the Covid pandemic by keeping jobs and demand afloat. But this has led to one of Britain’s biggest budget deficits and that cannot portend well for the economy’s future.

Truss, who is foreign secretary, has focused her campaign more on the things she would do if elected PM. Among those is cutting taxes to boost the economy and ease rising living costs. For the older Tory members that could be an appealing prospect. But, observers say, notwithstanding what the polls and surveys say, the race is not yet over and may go to the wire.

Five things That Happened Last Week (and what to make of them)

Of nude shoots, prudes, and fuss about the frivolous

Two years ago, long before the prevailing and, might I add, asinine controversy over the Bollywood actor Ranveer Singh’s nude photo shoot for the New York-based fashion and pop culture magazine, Paper, broke out, veteran model and actor, Milind Soman, tried an experiment. He shared a photo of himself and another model, Madhu Sapre, who was then his girlfriend. The photo shows both the models in the nude and was shot for an advertising campaign for a sports shoe brand. It was shot in 1995; Soman was then 30 and Sapre 24. Both are now in their 50s.

I remember when the ad came out in a couple of Mumbai newspapers. The internet was still a pie in the sky. Social media was non-existent. And in August that year (1995), the first mobile call was made by the then chief minister of West Bengal, the late Jyoti Basu, to the then Union minister for communications, the late Sukh Ram. The ad showed the two models naked except for their sneakers (it was an ad for those, after all) and in a Garden of Edenesque twist, there was also a large python entwined with them.

As expected there was a mixed reaction to the ad. Some people (this writer included) quite liked the black and white photograph of the two models. Sapre, a former Miss India, and Soman, who was also a swimming champion and runner, had chiselled bodies; and the photograph was aesthetic, not vulgar. And, it did what a good ad is supposed to do: it drew the reader’s attention.

But then, far from being homogenised, India exists on different levels, with moral standards, and cultural mores so diverse that different groups of people can seem from different planets and centuries. So yes, there was controversy. People called for banning the ad. The Social Service Branch (yes, there is such a thing!) of the Mumbai Police booked him and Sapre. I can’t quite remember what happened to the case–but the protests over the ad lasted for a while. They were nowhere near the mindless mayhem that Singh’s photo shoot has now led to.

That is exactly what Soman’s experiment two years ago was all about. He tweeted the 1995 photograph and wanted to gauge how people would react to it now in the age of social media when everyone, regardless of maturity, prejudices, and motivation, has access to a keypad to give vent to whatever they would like to say. The tweet got modest reactions (18500 likes; 997 retweets; and a bunch of comments, not many of which were overly indignant).

The difference between the Soman and Sapre photo shoot and Ranveer Singh’s recent one is that the latter has happened at a time when Indian society is more polarised and divided than it has ever been before. Outrage is easily triggered by almost anything. Much of it fuelled by so-called religious differences, with the minority community, especially Muslims, bearing the brunt of the violent, and hateful onslaught by an increasingly vocal (and social media-driven) majority. The problem is compounded by the fact that India’s institutions have been rendered weak and vulnerable to political pressure. Cases such as the FIR filed against Singh for his photo shoot should ideally be dismissed on grounds of frivolity but, in reality, the actor will likely be harassed meaninglessly.

What is offensive, obscene or overtly against Indian culture is a subjective question with different answers if you ask different groups of Indians. And, often, the responses are underlaid with elements of hypocrisy. There are at least seven ancient Indian temples whose facades are adorned with explicit erotic sculptures. In some temples, everything from heterosexuality, homosexuality, polyandry, polyamory, masturbation, and bestiality, is depicted in detail. I am actually waiting for a campaign to be fanned up by some ultra-prudish groups to demand that such temple art should be covered because after thousands of years 8konark was built in 1250 AD; Khajuraho temples between 885 and 1000 AD, the keepers of Indian morals feel that they are offensive. That sort of a campaign would surely establish that we’re finally in cuckoo land.

Bring back the corporate battles, it’s getting boring in here

In the 1980s and the early 1990s, before Indian policymakers began opening up the economy, easing restrictions, allowing unfettered foreign investment, doing away with licensing, and freeing up imports, running businesses in India could seem like running a torturous obstacle race. Obtaining licences, permits, and various other procedures could often become a Kafkaesque nightmare. Then there was the stock markets. The opacity and lax regulations gave big operators and insider traders a free hand. Markets could be moved by cartels and individuals, often at their whim, and there was not much anyone could do.

Much of all that has changed now. Mostly for the better. But there is one thing that keen observers of India’s corporate world must certainly be missing: intense corporate rivalries of that era. In the days of industrial licensing, most industries had just a few players that dominated the field. And that gave rise to the sort of corporate warfare that is rarely seen today. At the centre of most stories of Indian corporate wars there was usually one business group, Reliance Industries, founded by feisty entrepreneur, the late Dhirubhai Ambani. Reliance’s battles with older Indian groups such as Bombay Dyeing, Tatas, and Birlas, are the stuff of Indian business lore. 

For journalists who covered corporate news in that era, those were exciting times. You got tip-offs about the dirty laundry of a competitor from a rival group and vice versa. Sometimes the rivalry could resemble a thriller or potboiler straight out of a film. For instance, in 1989, a case was filed alleging a conspiracy by an executive at Reliance to murder Bombay Dyeing’s top boss, Nusli Wadia. The allegations have not been proved but, here’s the thing that case is still alive with hearings and so on held periodically!

Compared to that era, corporate warfare is a tame affair today. Recently, Gautam Adani, the Gujarat-based entrepreneur with interests in ports, power, and other infrastructure sectors, was in the news when he was estimated to be worth US$12.2 billion, making him the fourth richest person overtaking Microsoft’s Bill Gates. Adani is now much ahead of India’s former richest billionaire, Mukesh Ambani, who is estimated to be worth US$90.9 billion.

But there’s more. If recent trends are to be construed, Adani, who has been diversifying into sectors such as cement and healthcare, is now eyeing the telecom sector by bidding for the government’s ongoing 5G spectrum auction.

If Adani gets a foothold into telecom, it could be the beginning of a rivalry in that sector. Ambani’s Jio Infocomm is the biggest player in the Indian telecom market with a share of more than 35%. Given his penchant for aiming big, if Adani enters the sector, it won’t be for small beer. And that could mean an impending corporate battle between the two. Journalists on the corporate beat should be anticipating some fun.’

In Bengal, another politico is embroiled in a scam

A corrupt politician is an archetype in India. So much so that the common Indian citizen is often so cynical that he or she tends to paint every politician with the same tarred brush. “Oh, if he’s a politician, he must be corrupt and have a hoard of unaccounted wealth.” Literally or otherwise, that’s a view that is nearly universal. So when Partha Chatterjee, 69, and a former minister in the Trinamool Congress-led West Bengal government was booked for being responsible for irregularities in a teacher recruitment scheme, it didn’t raise too many eyebrows.

The Enforcement Directorate, which is investigating the charges against Chatterjee, also recovered ₹50 cr in cash and gold worth several crores from the house of Arpita Mukherjee, an actor and singer who the media have been describing as Chatterjee’s ‘aide’, whatever that might mean.

For the moment, the minister has been divested of his portfolio and is in the directorate’s custody. There is, of course, a political consequence to this. The Trinamool Congress’s (TMC) supremo and West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee, is a staunch critic and opponent of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The BJP has been trying desperately to get a foothold in the state. The scandal involving one of the state’s ministers will no doubt give the saffron party a handle to fight the TMC in the state.

Fresh twist in the Sunak-Truss race

After being in the lead for a while, Rishi Sunak is believed to be trailing behind Liz Truss in the race to become the next prime minister of the UK. Sunak, 42, is the former chancellor of the UK, while Truss, 47, is the former foreign secretary. 

A betting exchange firm, Smarkets, has said that Sunak’s chances are down to 10% now and Truss’s are up to 90%. For a while, earlier, there was a perception that Sunak would win the race–it requires garnering votes from around 175,000 Conservative Party members. But now the tables seem to have turned. Both candidates are touring the country, campaigning for votes and we will have to wait till early September to know who finally wins.

Russia’s war in Ukraine enters sixth month

Soon it will be six months since Russia attacked Ukraine and the war escalated there. And there are little signs of an early end to the conflict. Russia has been continuing to shell on the frontlines of Ukraine and casualties have been mounting. Both sides, however, continue to make conflicting claims about killing each other’s troops. 

In a recent development, however, Russia agreed to allow Ukraine to export wheat, 22 million tonnes of which are stranded at Ukrainian ports. According to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukraine is waiting for a go-ahead from the United Nations and Turkey for a safe passage of its ships.

Meanwhile, western observers continue to say that Russia is running out of steam but the conflict doesn’t seem to be heading for an end. And although both countries claim that they have attacked and killed tens of thousands, no reliable tally is as yet available.

Five Things That Happened Last Week (And What to Make of Them)

President Murmu’s story is that of the Great Indian Dream

The Great American Dream is often defined as the faith in the fact that anyone, regardless of the socio-economic class that they were born into, is able to achieve whatever version of success in life that they want to. In other words, apparently, there is no limit to upward mobility for anyone who desires or is driven to achieve their ambitions, no matter how high they set their targets. But the celebrated and much-lauded belief in the Great American Dream in present times seems a bit hollow. America is still far from being a society that presents equal opportunities to everyone. Discrimination against minorities, particularly African-Americans, is so stark that it doesn’t require emphatic repetition.

Besides, poverty levels, lack of access to medical care, joblessness, and rampant spread of drug use such as opioid abuse has crippled American society. As inner-city areas in America’s largest cities increasingly resemble an apocalyptic disaster, the so-called Great American Dream seems like a hollow epithet–a sort of unreal fantasy. 

Let your focus shift instead to India and a recent instance of how the Great Indian Dream can play out. It is the story of the newly-elected President of India, Droupadi Murmu. The first tribal President of the country (and the second woman to be elected to that office), Ms. Murmu’s is a heart-warming story of how someone from the most under-privileged rungs of society can make it to the highest office provided for by the Constitution of India. Ms.Murmu, 64, was born and raised in a Santhal family in a village called Uperbeda (population now: 2314) in Mayurbhanj district, Odisha. She was the first of her village to attend college. Her parents could afford to give her a monthly allowance of Rs 10 those days.

Before joining politics via the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Ms. Murmu worked as a junior government officer and then as a teacher. In her political career she served as a minister in the BJP-Biju Janata Dal Odisha government as a minister and then as the governor of Jharkhand.

Last week she became the President of India. If this is not the Great Indian Dream, what is?

The politics of India’s population explosion

Next year, India’s population is expected to cross China’s. At current estimates, China is the most populous country in the world with a population of 1.42 billion; India is close behind with 1.41 billion. But next year, India’s population is expected to cross China’s. 

There is another piece of statistics that is relevant in this context. In 2021, China’sper capita GDP was US$12,556: India’s was US$2191. Do the math. China’s per capita GDP is nearly six times that of India’s. So as India’s population continues growing (in the meantime, China’s population growth rate is declining), the future of India’s economy, particularly the wellbeing of its citizens, could look far from bright.

According to several studies, there are intra-communal disparities in India’s population growth that makes things even more complex. A PewResearch Centre study found that from 1951-2011, the population of Hindus and other religious groups grew three times; but the Muslim population grew five times. And while the total fertility rate (TFR) across all communities is declining, the TFR for Muslims remains higher than that of other religious communities, notably the Hindus who make up the majority of the Indian population.

The fact, however, is that ever since the disastrous family planning campaign of the 1970s when mass sterilisations were undertaken, espoused by the late Congress leader, Sanjay Gandhi, efforts to control India’s population have been fraught with caution. Now, however, with the current political dispensation where a nationalist regime has been in power, right-wing Hindus groups have been voicing their views about the rise in Mulim population and the so-called risks that it poses for India’s future. While this has yet not become a major electoral issue, the decibel level is rising. 

Many point to the fact that India’s Muslim population, estimated at 213 million, is the world’s third-largest and that 1% of the world’s Muslims live in India.

Majoritarian Hindus increasingly see this as a population time bomb. And as the 2024 parliamentary elections approach, you could expect more vocalisation on this issue.

‘Fact-checker’ Zubair freed on bail

Last month Mohammed Zubair who runs a fact-checking website called Alt News and is a vocal critic of the ruling regime led by Prime Minister Narendra Modiwas arrested and denied bail on charges of using the social media platform, Twitter, to make what was deemed to be provocative statements that could strain relations between Hindus and Muslims. The tweet was four years old. The charges were levelled by an anonymous Twitter user.

Last week, Zubair, 39, was released on bail after his case was heard in the Supreme Court, and judges said that the power of arrests must be pursued sparingly and that while investigations can continue, there was no justification for keeping Zubair in custody.

While the Supreme Court’s direction is welcome, freedom of speech has come under constant attack in India in recent years. Criticism of the ruling regime is not tolerated. Even satirical references to lawmakers, the government or even religious icons attract vociferous protests and punitive action. Thin-skinnedness is the order of the day. And that is never a hallmark of a mature society.

Is the Indian rupee in free-fall?

Last week the Indian rupee plunged to its lowest level. One US dollar was worth 80 Indian rupees. This was not unexpected. Rising crude oil prices (India imports 85% of the oil it requires), especially in the wake of the Russian attack on Ukraine and the ripple effect on oil prices that it has created is one of the main reasons for that.

But there are others. Globally, US investors have been moving their investments overseas back to the US where the Fed Reserve has been increasing the interest rates or planning to hike them further in order to check what the highest level of retail inflation in the US is in recent times.

A declining value of the rupee would mean more expensive imports for India and that could generate a rise in prices of goods and services domestically. India’s current account deficit (when the total value of goods and services a country imports exceeds the total value of goods and services it exports) was US$ 9.6 billion in July-September 2021-22, equivalent to 1.3 percent of the GDP, compared with a surplus of US$ 15.3 billion in the same period of the previous fiscal year. Clearly, this does not portend well for the Indian economy.

A new twist in the race to 10 Downing Street

As former British chancellor Rishi Sunak faces off with former foreign secretary Liz Truss in the race to become the next prime minister and succeed outgoing PM Boris Johnson, Sunak faces charges of being a “privileged” candidate. 

The Sunak camp has always highlighted his humble background. Despite his elite educational background–Sunak went to Winchester College and Oxford University and has an MBA from Stanford University–his Indian origin parents were not rich or titled. His father was a general practitioner and his mother ran a local pharmacy. 

But recently, his opponents ran campaigns against him mainly targeting the fact that he is married to Akshata Murthy, the daughter of one of India’s richest billionaires, N.R. Narayana Murthy. Akshata’s net worth is valued at around US$1.2 billion. 

The Sunak camp, however, dismisses these by claiming that his career is the product of hard work and sacrifices by his parents who financed his education despite the odds. 

The contest is still open, however, and Sunak and Truss are still head to head for the prime minister’s post. The results of the final vote will be known by September 5.

Five Things That Happened Last Week (And What to Make of Them)

If Rishi Sunak becomes Britain’s next PM, will Indians rejoice?

Among the five Tory leaders who will make it to the third round of voting to select the candidate who will replace the outgoing Prime Minister Boris Johnson, former Chancellor Rishi Sunak, 42, is leading. Although he was born in the UK, Sunak’s Indian connection is his parents who are Indians that migrated from East Africa. But that is not his only link with India. Sunak is married to the daughter of N.R. Narayana Murthy, the billionaire co-founder of Indian infotech giant, Infosys. 

If Sunak does succeed Johnson, you can safely expect the Indian media to go berserk, appropriating him as “one of us”. It’s usually the way it goes. Whether it is Kamala Harris, the current US vice-president, or Bobby Jindal, the former Louisiana governor, anyone with the slightest trace of Indian heritage is quickly adopted as an object of adulation by the Indian media. So wait for it. There could be a deluge of hagiographical gush pieces that could assault us if Sunak makes it to 10 Downing Street.

Sri Lanka’s leadership crisis and what it means

It could have been a scene from a movie set in a banana republic. Last Wednesday, the president of Sri Lanka, Gotabaya Rajapaksa hurriedly left the country for Maldives not long after thousands of angry protestors broke into his official residence, swam in his pool and called for his resignation. The resignation came later in the week, after Rajapaksa moved to Singapore from Maldives and put in his papers.

Rajapaksa’s resignation finally came after several months of unrest in the island nation following economic mismanagement by his government that has led to widespread suffering for the country’s citizens. Sri Lanka’s 22 million people have been facing hardships, including the impact of runaway inflation, food and fuel shortage and a near-breakdown of the economy. Sri Lanka also has huge outstanding sovereign debt, much of which is held by China, India, and Japan. And whoever succeeds Rajapaksa will have to tackle a task of complex and mammoth proportions.

Sri Lanka adopted the presidential form of government in 1978. For much of the past two decades, the Rajapaksas have ruled Sri Lanka with almost unlimited powers. Gotabaya Rajapaksa is not the first of his family to rule the country. His brother Mahinda was elected president in 2005 and was considered a hero with legendary status in 2009 when he quashed the more than 25-year-old civil war against Tamil rebels. But he ran the country as a family business, installing his brothers, Gotabaya and Basil, in key government positions.

Gotabaya assumed office as president in 2019 but the economic crisis that followed has now taken its toll. Following the recent developments and his eventual resignation, the question uppermost on most analysts’ minds is first, whether this is the final denouement for the Rajapaksa clan; and second, what is in store for the tiny but troubled island country next.

A win for India as US House gives nod to Russian missile deal

With Russian aggression in Ukraine continuing, the US sanctions against Russia and those countries buying defence equipment from Russia is a punitive one. Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) aims at penalising countries that engage in deals with Russia.

The fact is India buys defence equipment running into billions of dollars from Russia. From 2011 to 2022, Russia made US$22.8 billion worth of arms transfers to India, which was 42.5 percent higher than the previous decade. Now, India is spending $5.5 billion on the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile platform. The U.S.-made Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence system costs many times more and is not as effective for India’s needs.

Under CAATSA, this sort of a deal would have attracted US sanctions against India. But in a recent development, the US House of Representatives voted against imposing sanctions against India on the grounds that India has to protect its sovereignty along the Indo-Chinese border. According to Ro Khanna, the US representative from California, “The United States must stand with India in the face of escalating aggression from China. As Vice Chair of the India Caucus, I have been working to strengthen the partnership between our countries and ensure that India can defend itself along the Indian Chinese border.” Yet another instance of the Chinese bogey coming to the aid of India’s diplomatic relations with the US.

Q. How many people died in India’s heat wave? A. We don’t know

In the 100 days between end-March to late June, the temperature remained higher than 38 degrees Celsius every day except 15 days in most of India. In some places the temperature rose to more than 50 degrees Celsius. Yet, there is no accurate date on how many fatalities this freak heat wave may have caused.

According to scientific research, some of which is ongoing at top institutes in the world, the combination of high heat and humidity produces what is termed as the “wet-bulb temperature” whose minimum threshold is around 35 degrees Celsius (wet bulb temperature is the lowest temperature to which air can be cooled by the evaporation of water into the air at a constant pressure). It is believed that exposure to wet-bulb temperature above 35 degrees can be fatal for even healthy and young people.

The heat wave in India has been devastating. However, according to an article in the New York Times, there is a surprising lack of data on the number of fatalities that the sustained spike in temperature may have caused during March-June. Why?

Is it because India’s official data for deaths  (as it has allegedly been during the most serious waves of Covid) suffers from undercounting? Or is it because in many parts of India, the level of humidity accompanying the high temperature was low? (Apparently, high temperatures accompanied by high humidity levels are the commonest cause for heat wave related deaths). Or, is it because Indians are adapting better to increasing temperatures by adopting simple solutions of keeping cool (example: in vast regions of the country, when temperatures shoot up, people hang wet sheets that help keep their homes cooler).

The New York Times article attempts to answer these and other questions. It’s an essential read.

NSFW words for our lawmakers

NSFW (Not Safe for Work) is a term used to warn readers or viewers that some content is not appropriate for reading or viewing at work. But recently, India’s Lok Sabha Secretariat has released a list of words that it considers unparliamentary for use in parliamentary discourses. Many words – such as ‘corruption’, ‘corrupt’, ‘Jumlajeevi’, ‘tanashah’, ‘Dictator’, ‘black’ and ‘Khalistani’ are among those that have been banned. Parliamentarians will not be allowed to use these words during their speeches, interjections and other statements from the Monsoon session that begins on July 18.

Other words that have been banned include ‘Baal buddhi’, ‘Covid spreader’, ‘anarchist’, ‘Shakuni’, ‘dictatorial’, ‘taanashah’, ‘taanashahi’, ‘Jaichand’, ‘vinash purush’, ‘dohra charitra’, ‘nikamma’, ‘nautanki’, ‘dhindora peetna’ and ‘behri sarkar’ and ‘Snoopgate’.

Needless to say that this has sparked protests from the Opposition. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi tweeted: “New Dictionary for New India” with the image:

Others such as the Trinamool Congress’ Derek O’Brien tweeted: “I will use all these words. Suspend me. Fighting for democracy.”

We will have to wait and see what happens when the session begins and the fun starts.

Three Quick Takeaways From Assembly Poll Results

If you distil down the results of the five states that held assembly elections recently, there are three conclusions that could describe them best. These three facts are what will shape the future of politics and governance in India. The same three conclusions will also impact the future of three political parties.

First, it is the unabated surge of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Winning Uttar Pradesh decisively by getting 255 of the 403 seats and, thus, retaining India’s most populous state does two things. It underlines how strong the party is in the northern belt, which in turn could be a pointer to its fortunes when parliamentary elections are held in 2024. It also silences critics who thought that the stock of UP’s hardliner chief minister, Yogi Adityanath, was falling. Already speculation has begun on whether Adityanath, 49, could succeed Narendra Modi, 71, as Prime Minister in the coming years.

There was a time before 2014 that many people ruled out that Modi (whose tenure as chief minister of Gujarat was controversial) could become India’s Prime Minister. As it happened, the doubters were put paid and Modi’s popularity continues to soar. Could Adityanath be waiting in the wings to succeed him? In Indian politics, as they say, anything can happen.

The second conclusion is the spectacular surge of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). There is possibly no precedent to what the party, led by Delhi’s chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, has pulled off by winning Punjab. No small regional party such as AAP has done that before. AAP won 92 of the 177 seats in Punjab, thereby reducing the traditional contenders — Shiromani Akali Dal, BJP, and Congress — to mere also rans. This has many ramifications.

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It establishes that small regional parties, if they play their strategies well, can expand to other regions outside their strongholds and can prove to be formidable opponents to bigger traditional parties in their own bastion. AAP’s victory in Punjab does just that but it also catapults the party and its leader Kejriwal to the central stage. AAP will now be a force to contend with and we ought not to be surprised if prominent leaders from parties such as the Congress leave to join the AAP.

The third and least surprising conclusion is the complete rout of the Congress party, a political organisation that once reigned supreme in the country. Indeed, looking at the party’s current state, it is difficult to believe that it had ever been so strong, powerful, and at the top of India’s political pack. In Uttar Pradesh, the Congress won just two seats of the 403; in Punjab it managed 18; in Goa 11 (the BJP won 20) of the 40; in Uttarakhand 19 (BJP won 47) out of 70; and in Manipur it got five (BJP won 32) of the 60 seats. The writing on the wall is clear.

The Congress, run by the Gandhi family, is facing a serious leadership crisis. This has not only meant that that the party is rudderless but it has continued to be dynastic — Rahul Gandhi, the reluctant heir to his mother and the party’s current head, Sonia Gandhi, has proved himself to be a failure several times over and yet the party’s leaders do not try to infuse new blood or revamp the way the party is run. By the time 2024 rolls in and the Lok Sabha elections are held, the Congress could get diminished even further. Its fate in the recent five-state assembly polls shows that clearly.

First Non-Gandhi Prez

To Survive, Congress Needs A Major Split

Here’s a quick question. How many times do you think India’s so-called Grand Old Party, the Indian National Congress, has split since its inception in 1885? The answer is: at least 70 times. The splits have often been small regional ones such as when Chittaranjan Das and Motilal Nehru broke away in 1923 to form the Swaraj Party in what was then the Bengal Presidency (the Swaraj Party was later merged back into the Indian National Congress) but also a few major, national level breakups such as when leaders Morarji Desai and K. Kamaraj broke away in 1969 from Indira Gandhi to form what would later be part of the Janata Party. In later years there have been other major breakaway groups from the INC, notably the Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party, which is still active.

In recent years, particularly after the Congress’ near-decimation in parliamentary elections in 2014 and the fact that it is in power in very few of India’s 28 states, speculation in political circles about a major split in the party has been rife. The Congress is in power in the states of Punjab, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan where the party has majority support. In Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand and Maharashtra it shares power with alliance partners Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and Shiv Sena, respectively.

The party’s diminishing fortunes have led to disillusionment among many of its prominent leaders who have lost confidence in the leadership of the party, which remains a fiefdom of the Gandhi family. Sonia Gandhi continues to be its president; her son, Rahul, is a reluctant heir who many believe is ineffective in either leading the party or winning elections.

As a result of this and the ensuing crisis in the party, several senior leaders–either at the national level or at the state level–have left the Congress, some of them choosing to join the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party whose fortunes have been directionally quite the opposite of that of the Congress. Besides being in power at the Centre, the BJP or its alliances rule 18 Indian states and despite some recent setbacks, the popularity of the party or its leader, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has been ahead of any other political party or leader.

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The exodus from the Congress actually began nearly eight years ago when the BJP came to power. According to one estimate, more than 30 leaders, many of them former central ministers or state-level leaders, left the Congress to join the BJP. Many high-profile exits happened more recently. These include Jyotiraditya Scindia who is now a minister at the Centre; Jitin Prasada, now a minister in the Uttar Pradesh BJP-led government; and R.P.N. Singh, a former Congress minister who recently jumped ship to join the BJP. The Congress has been losing people from its second rung leadership and that is a blow for the party.

The informal G-23 or a grouping of 23 Congress leaders is a pointer to what could happen in the foreseeable future. The group comprises several heavyweights from the party. There are, for instance, five former chief ministers and several former Union ministers.

One of the most notable factors is that this group has mustered the courage to challenge the party’s leadership and call for reforms. Foremost among their demands is a call for elections to the Congress Working Committee, the powerful executive committee of the party, headed by Sonia Gandhi. The Congress has not held elections to the CWC since 1998 and this has meant that it has become an undemocratic, closed-club, which is in charge of running the party.

Recently, when the Indian government decided to honour the Congress leader, Ghulam Nabi Azad, with a national award, it set off rumblings in the party and speculation that Azad would quit the Congress and join the BJP. While that hasn’t happened yet, a split in the Congress could possibly be good for the party. For one, it would bring together some of its leaders with the potential to revive the party. Second, a strong enough breakaway faction would rid the party of the regressive leadership of the Gandhi family, which has failed at elections and at holding together its flock.

The Congress is the only party, besides the BJP, that still has a national presence, although its influence has waned. Today, however, the BJP is almost unchallenged: in 2019, the Congress won 52 seats in the Lok Sabha, failing to get 10% of the seats needed to claim the post of Leader of Opposition. With its decimation in Parliament, in the absence of a strong national party’s presence, the opposition is toothless. That is not exactly a good recipe for a democratic system.

What the party sorely needs is fresh leadership that could revive it by infusing new ideas, raising the confidence of its leaders and workers, and forging strategic alliances with regional parties so that the ruling party and its allies do not get a free run. Creating a strong opposition could be the first step towards getting back its status as the Grand Old Party.