Countdown To Modi's Third Term Begins

The Countdown to Narendra Modi’s Third Term Begins

The next time you are at an Indian railway station and it happens to be one of the hundred that has a selfie point, you can pass the time while waiting for your train by taking a photograph of yourself along with a life size replica of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The selfie points, if they’re of the permanent sort, cost around ₹6.25 lakh, while the temporary ones are cheaper at ₹1.25 lakh.

Railway stations aren’t the only places where you can take a selfie with the Prime Minister (albeit in a life-size 3-D avatar) beside you. Such points have also been installed at museums, parks, and other public spaces. According to media reports, universities and even the armed forces have been instructed to install them. One source says the total number of selfie points is 822.

At New Delhi’s international airport terminal, as you walk to the departure gates, there are several booths with Modi’s image along with that of Swami Gyananand where you can take a selfie. Swami, an Indian Mahamandaleshwar saint, is known for his research on Bhagavad Gita, the 700-verse Hindu scripture. He has also founded another organisation to globally promote the Gita.

The ubiquity of images and pictures of Modi, on posters, banners, official documents, and other commonly used official papers and forms for the past 10 years that he has been Prime Minister is not new but now their omnipresence seems truly larger than life and, quite clearly, this has much to do with the forthcoming parliamentary elections, which Modi and his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would like to win and extend the tenure of its rule by another five years.

Last December 31, The Guardian’s headline of an article said: BJP win in India’s 2024 general election ‘almost an inevitability’. It was written by Hannah-Ellis Petersen, the newspaper’s South Asia correspondent, and it described how, with less than six months left for the election (in which 900 million Indians will be eligible to vote) the Modi government had launched a nationwide campaign to highlight its achievements “despite criticisms of politicising government bureaucracy and resources for campaigning purposes”.

The Guardian’s use of the word “inevitability” in its headline (although in the article it is attributed to a prominent Indian policy analyst) displays the newspaper’s bias against Modi and his government, which are seen by the West as pushing a Hindu nationalist agenda and creating insecurity among minorities. Nearly 80% of Indians are Hindus and 14% are Muslims. As a percentage of India’s population of more than 1.4 billion, viewed against any global population statistics, both those numbers are huge.

Still, the view from the West could miss the reality on the ground in India. For instance, The Guardian article says: “At state and national level, the apparatus of the country has been skewed heavily towards the BJP since Modi was elected in 2014. He has been accused of overseeing an unprecedented consolidation of power, muzzling critical media, eroding the independence of the judiciary and all forms of parliamentary scrutiny and accountability and using government agencies to pursue and jail political opponents.”

To be sure, many Indian observers also agree that since the BJP-led regime came to power, elections, especially in the more populous northern and central states, have been marked by religious polarisation. And that inequality remains one of the biggest concerns and challenges. The richest 1% of Indians own 58% of wealth, while the richest 10% of Indians own 80% of the wealth. This trend has consistently increased–so the Indian rich are getting richer much faster than the poor, widening the income gap.

Also sadly, despite over 70 years’ of effort by the Indian government, the caste system (or social inequity) also continues to keep widening that gap. People coming from the marginalised sections of caste-based social categories, continue to be directly impacted in terms of their opportunities, access to essential utilities, and their potential as a whole.

The ordinary Indian voter, however, sees Modi as a strongman, a hero who has not only tried to enhance India’s prestige and status on the global stage–last year it hosted as rotational president the G-20 summit; and sent a space mission to land on the moon–but also tried to help improve the average Indian’s economic fortunes. India’s economy has grown at a higher rate than most large economies (although inequality has not been impacted significantly); a slew of subsidies aimed at the poor have benefited millions; and universal digital services have ensured that beneficiaries are not denied what they have the right to receive. Infrastructure, especially roads have improved impressively and so has public access to medical facilities and hygiene.

A well-known publicity and communications strategist of the Congress party, which is the BJP’s main challenger from the Opposition, admits that India will go to the polls with a clear advantage for Modi and his party. In 2019, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which is led by the BJP, won 353 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, or lower house of Parliament. The BJP on its own won 303 seats. This time, the Congress strategist who spoke on conditions of anonymity, said he wouldn’t be surprised if the NDA wins 350 seats, a staggering 65% of the total seats.

It is a fact that the Indian mainstream media is no longer a platform where criticism of the ruling regime or a focus on problem areas such as religious polarisation is encouraged. In fact, India’s largest newspapers and TV channels are dominated by hagiographic coverage of the Modi-led regime. Even “independent” media outlets, most of which are small and lack robust business models, have begun to shy away from criticising the government or its policies, some of them because they fear retaliation in the shape of tax raids or other regulatory action.

No one really cares. Last year, several leading Indian artists were “commissioned” to make artwork themed on the Prime Minister’s monthly addresses to the nation, Mann Ki Baat. The event, which occurs once a month, is aired by the state-owned TV channels (and co-telecast by many private channels as well) and streamed on the internet and social media platforms. The commissioning of artists marked the 100th episode of Mann Ki Baat and the art that they created was exhibited under the title Jana Shakti (people’s power) at Delhi’s prestigious National Gallery of Modern Art.

Last week it was announced that the Opposition alliance of nearly 30 parties, called I.N.D.I.A., would be headed by the Congress Party’s president, Mallikarjun Kharge. I.N.D.I.A., which stands for ‘Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance’, is a group of opposition parties, including the Congress, which have joined forces to challenge the NDA, led by the BJP, and stop it from securing a third consecutive term at the Centre in the Lok Sabha elections. Most Indians think that it will end in a whimper. And that Modi, 73, and his party will win the elections decisively and secure a third term for the regime he heads.

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Earth’s Year of Elections

2024 Will Be Earth’s Year of Elections. What Should You Expect?

This year could be the year of national elections on Earth. In 64 countries (plus the European Union), two billion humans or one in every four of the eight billion of us that populate the planet will be set to go to the polls. An estimated 1.16 billion of these voters will be from the South Asian countries of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, with India alone accounting for more than 900 million voters, which is 100 million more than the number that was eligible to vote in the previous national election held in 2019.

After you have wrapped your head around those staggering numbers, consider also how the outcomes of some of those elections could impact the state of the world here on our planet. Take the big ones first. The US will hold its presidential elections in November. As of now, indications are that former Republican President Donald Trump, who served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021, could be his party’s nominee for the 2024 election. Trump is facing a slew of legal problems but this does not seem to deter his supporters: with 52% of Republican voters or Republican-leaning independent voters, Trump is way ahead of his nearest rivals in the race for nomination.

If Trump, 77, is nominated, the face-off will likely be between him and the Democratic incumbent Joe Biden, 81. If Trump wins, as many analysts think he will if he is nominated, his policies and actions as President of the US will affect not only his country but also the state of the world. More on that soon. For now, turn to another election that will take place this year.

Two months from now, in March, Russia will go to the polls to elect a President. In all likelihood it will be Vladimir Putin who will be re-elected. Putin has been in charge of Russia since late 1999 or more than 21 years and is eligible for re-election this year, as a result of constitutional amendments that he orchestrated in 2020. The amendments reset his previous terms and allowed him to seek two more six-year terms, potentially extending his rule until 2036. Putin is 71 so, in theory, he can rule till he is 84.

Russia is a democracy only in theory. In reality it is an authoritarian state where elections are not free or fair. The Kremlin, Russia’s seat of power, controls the media, the security forces, and the election commission, and Putin has effectively suppressed all opposition, barred many of rivals from contesting the elections and either imprisoned dissenters or exiled them. 

A Trump-Putin Combo? If Putin is reelected, Russia will likely continue its aggressive foreign policy, especially in Ukraine and Eastern Europe, and face more international sanctions and isolation. Putin will also tighten his grip on domestic politics and suppress any dissent or opposition. If Trump is elected in 2024, the US will face more political and social turmoil, as Trump will try to overturn his 2020 election loss and pursue his populist agenda. Trump will also undermine democratic institutions and norms, and alienate many US allies and partners.

A Trump-Putin combo would mean that the world could face a more unstable and unpredictable geopolitical situation. Trump and Putin have a long history of mutual admiration and personal rapport, but their interests and agendas are often at odds. Trump could weaken NATO and other US alliances, while Putin could exploit the chaos and expand his influence in regions like Ukraine, Syria, and the Middle East. The risk of conflict and escalation between the two nuclear powers would increase, as well as the challenges for global cooperation on issues like climate change, human rights, and cybersecurity.

A third term for Modi? The biggest national elections this year will be in India, which has the largest electorate in the world, with over 900 million voters eligible to vote for the lower house of Parliament, Lok Sabha, which has 543 seats. India has a multi-party system, with two major alliances competing for power this year: the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.), led by the Indian National Congress (INC) and its president, Mallikarjun Kharge.

India’s elections are held in multiple phases, spanning over several weeks, to ensure security and logistical arrangements. In 2019, the elections were held in seven phases, from 11 April to 19 May. The schedule for 2024 is yet to be announced by the Election Commission of India (ECI).

India’s elections also involve millions of polling staff, security personnel, electronic voting machines, and observers. In 2019, there were over 10 lakh polling stations, 17.4 lakh voting machines, and 23 lakh security personnel deployed across the country.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is widely expected to win a third term in 2024, as he enjoys a strong popularity and because the Opposition is weak. In recent months, his party has scored significant victories in state elections, which could be an indication that voters’ support for it is strong.

A third term may see India becoming one of the top three economies in the world. India’s economy is one of the largest and fastest-growing in the world. According to the latest data from the World Bank, India’s nominal GDP was $3.73 trillion in 2023, making it the fifth-largest economy in the world after the USA, China, Japan, and Germany. India’s GDP growth rate was 7.6% in the second quarter of 2023-24, higher than most of the major economies.

India’s per capita income was $2,389 in 2022, which ranked 112th in the world. India’s per capita GDP on PPP basis was $8,379 in 2022, according to the World Bank. In comparison, China’s per capita GDP on PPP basis was $21,476 in 2022. This means that China’s per capita GDP on PPP basis was more than twice as high as India’s.

Prime Minister Modi faces some challenges such as poverty, inequality, infrastructure gaps, environmental issues, and fiscal deficits. However, during his tenure, which began in 2014, India has also undertaken several reforms and initiatives to boost its economic potential, such as the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the Make in India campaign, the Digital India program, and the Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan. India aims to become a $5 trillion economy by 2027 and a $10 trillion economy by 2032.

Led by Modi, India recently had a successful G20 presidency and a lunar mission. For a country of its size, it has also managed a satisfactory a post-COVID-19 recovery and achieved robust growth. India has also been part of a new Indo-Pacific alliance against China, along with the US, Australia, and Japan, to counter China’s expansionist ambitions and assert India’s role as a key player in the region.

In crisis areas such as the Russian aggression in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war, India has protected its own economic and political interests instead of taking sides. That sort of strategy could be expected to continue on the international front. Relations with China remain tense, though, especially on border disputes between the two countries although under Modi, the foreign policy targeted at China and Pakistan (with which there are continuing disputes on the western borders of the country) has been assertive.

Modi may, however, face some challenges in balancing the interests of different Indian states and regions, as well as in addressing the issues of social justice, environmental protection, and democratic rights.

Elections in the rest of South Asia. India’s neighbours, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, will also go to the polls this year. In Pakistan, elections are scheduled to be held in February but the Pakistan Senate has passed a resolution seeking to delay the elections due to security and weather concerns. The resolution is not binding and the final decision rests with the Election Commission of Pakistan. With the former Prime Minister Imran Khan in jail on corruption charges, the main contenders are the Pakistan Muslim League (N), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, and the Pakistan Peoples Party, led by former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari. In Pakistan, the army plays a key role in politics and the government and outcome of the election there will be keenly watched.

Elections will also take place this year in Bangladesh, where Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League has been in power since 2009 and where she is accused of silencing dissent and ruling with an authoritarian iron hand. She is expected to win another term.

India’s other neighbour, Sri Lanka, also goes to the polls this year. Two years ago, the then president of the island nation Gotabaya Rajapaksa was forced to flee his country after protests accused  him for the country’s worst economic crisis in 73 years. Inflation had soared and the nation had turned bankrupt leaving millions in the tiny country unable to get food, fuel or healthcare. That was when the current President Ranil Wickremesinghe took over. But elections haven’t been held in Sri Lanka since 2018 and if a date is finally announced for this year, all eyes will be on who gets the people’s mandate. Wickremesinghe, who helped get a loan from the International Monetary Fund and has led several reforms to get the economy back on track, will likely contest and hope for a second term.

Other notable elections in the world include Indonesia, where the current incumbent Joko Widodo (aka Jokowi) is ineligible due to term limits.

Besides this, there will be elections in Iran, South Korea, Panama, and several African Nations, including Rwanda, Libya, Mali, and Ghana. As I said, this year is the year of elections on Earth.

A Gas Chamber Called Delhi-NCR

Of Life and Living in a Gas Chamber Called Delhi-NCR

It is a mild winter afternoon and I am meeting a friend at the DLF Golf and Country Club, a private members-only club in Gurugram. Widely acknowledged as the best golf course in India and a regular host to international tournaments, it is also a paradise for golf enthusiasts and a symbol of luxury and exclusivity in India. With an annual membership fee of around Rs 7 lakh (USD 8400) or 3.5 times the per capita income in India, it better be a paradise. We are sitting inside one of its glass-encased restaurants and the conversation turned to Delhi’s air pollution.

Through the glass we can barely see the carefully landscaped green lawns, undulating hills, and a manmade lake with a fountain because all of it was covered by a thick blanket of fog. Only, it was not fog but smog, or air that was polluted densely with tiny particulate matter that can get into your lungs when you breathe and lead to serious respiratory and other ailments. It is said that an average resident of Delhi-NCR (National Capital Region) inhales the equivalent of a pack and a half (or 30) cigarettes every day during the worst days of pollution. The worst days are now. And they are ubiquitous. Between October end and January, air pollution levels in the sprawling megalopolis, home to nearly 33 million people, which is about half the population of the UK, routinely turn horrific each year.

Air pollution is not a problem for Delhi and the NCR alone but has come to affect every large and medium sized city in India where construction activity is booming; the number of vehicles on the road is spiraling out of control; and where industrial activity in the form of smoke spewing factories mushroom as zoning restrictions are enforced only leniently. In northern parts of India, such as Delhi and the NCR, the problem is compounded by farmers burning crop stubble to clear the soil for fresh sowings and the smoke from that being swept over the city and its suburbs. 

My friend tells me how all his three cars have air purifiers, which also, of course, are in every room of his sprawling five-bedroom home in a luxury condominium on the edge of the golf course where we are sitting. He coughs frequently, though, and when I ask him whether he wears a mask when he is outdoors, he demurs and doesn’t answer. He is one of India’s privileged class of rich people who lives his charmed life in a bubble but even he doesn’t seem overly concerned about the havoc that the air in the city is wreaking on his body and his health. It is believed that in Delhi and the NCR, pollution may be slashing 10 to 12 years of a person’s life.

As we finish our coffees and prepare to leave, I check the real time Air Quality Index (AQI) on my phone. It is 402. That means the air quality is very very poor and may cause respiratory illness in people on prolonged exposure. It also means that the average concentration of PM 2.5, a harmful pollutant, is 250 micrograms per cubic metre, which is four times the permissible limit. I take out my mask, a N95 that is said to help filter out the dreaded particles–at least a bit–and put it on for the walk to my friend’s car parked about 800 metres from where we are. He doesn’t have a mask and even though he is still coughing a bit, he doesn’t seem to care.

My friend is among the 17,400 dollar millionaires (estimate courtesy Hurun India Wealth Report, 2021) in Delhi and NCR. And as I said, he doesn’t wear a mask when he is outside. Little wonder that very few of the millions of his co-residents in the megalopolis also don’t. Most don’t own and cannot afford air purifiers and millions have to work outdoors all day or live in homes that are just not equipped to prevent the spread of poor air.

This November when air pollution levels in Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR) reached alarming levels once again, a leading Indian newspaper did a feature titled, “Choosing the right mask for Delhi–your ultimate guide”. It was a timely article, exhaustive and well-researched, and listed different masks and their efficacies in tackling or, rather, lessening the grave consequences of breathing the urban sprawl’s terrible air. I am sure many other media publications have done the same thing: warning people about how bad the air quality is and how important it is to take precautions. They needn’t have. No one wears masks in Delhi or its adjoining areas that make up what is known as NCR.

This winter, Delhi and the NCR’s air quality was the worst in several years. On December 23, in parts of the city the AQI crossed 450. AQI values at or below 100 are generally thought of as satisfactory. When AQI values are above 100, air quality is considered to be unhealthy—at first for certain sensitive groups of people, then for everyone as AQI values increase. In Delhi and the NCR area, AQI levels during the colder months, beginning in November, routinely rise to beyond 400, which is not only unhealthy but hazardous and, for people breathing it over a sustained period, can have life-threatening consequences. 

A decade ago, China’s Beijing (population around 22 million) had a similar problem. Thick smog stubbornly enveloped the city and AQI levels soared. But the Chinese government declared a war against pollution in 2013. In Beijing, a $100-billion plan was actioned, which included clampdowns on factories, a ban on old vehicles, and a decisive move from coal and fossil-fuel sources of energy to natural gas. In 2020, Beijing was reported to have had 288 days of clear skies compared to 176 in 2013 when the war against pollution began.

And in Delhi? In 2021, according to one estimate, there were only 60 satisfactory air days (AQI of 100 or less). Things may have gotten worse since then. And, on the face of it, not much is being done to effectively improve things. 

One of the factors that made the Chinese government combat the pollution problem in its biggest cities was public outrage. Even under an authoritarian regime, people in Beijing and other cities protested publicly when air pollution began reaching hazardous levels. That and the fact that China was eager not to have its international image, particularly among investors, tarnished were what spurred the authorities into action. 

In Indian cities, especially Delhi and the NCR, there has hardly been any public protest. Instead there is a pall of fatalism that seems to be pervasive. On the streets of Delhi, Gurugram, Noida, Faridabad, and other satellite towns, hardly anyone wears masks. And, while schools were closed briefly, and some offices reverted to Covid-era remote working for their employees, these were stop-gap measures. 

To be sure, the government has rolled out a set of plans. GRAP, which stands for Graded Response Action Plan, is a set of emergency measures that are implemented incrementally when air quality begins to dip in Delhi-NCR in the winter months. GRAP has four stages, depending on the severity of the air pollution: poor, very poor, severe, and severe+. Each stage has different actions to reduce emissions from various sources, such as vehicles, industries, construction, and waste burning. 

Has that helped? The short answer is no. That is because of several factors:

First, there is a lack of coordination and compliance among various agencies and states involved in implementing GRAP. Second, even after GRAP triggers actions such as a ban on construction, waste burning and diesel generators, these are not implemented by local authorities. Third, the response to changing air quality levels is delayed or insufficient. And fourth, there is a lack of a long-term plan to address the root causes of air pollution such as vehicular emissions, industrial activities, crop burning, and meteorological factors.

To be sure, there have been bans on certain categories of vehicles that don’t adhere to emission standards. There have also been some restrictions on factories and smoke-spewing industries in and around the megalopolis but clearly not enough has been done to have a meaningful impact on the quality of air that millions have to breathe.

Soon, India’s political parties will begin their run-up to the parliamentary elections scheduled for next May. The Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who will lead the campaign for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, is keenly expected to win a third term. By February or perhaps March when electioneering will really pick up momentum, the skies will be a bit clearer (read: AQI levels will no longer be hazardous but merely poor) and that would be good enough for everyone to forget about pollution. The issue of bad air quality, which has already become “old news” that is undeserving of highlighting for India’s media publications will by then disappear completely from their news reports; and you can be sure that air pollution will not be an issue that anyone is going to focus on during the high-decibel election campaigning that usually marks India’s polls.

Instead, the citizens of Delhi-NCR (as well as other Indian cities) will fatalistically breathe “poor” or “very poor” air, thankful perhaps that at least it is not hazardous… till the smog rolls in again next November. 

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2024 Will be About Russia China Modi

2024 Will be About Russia, China, Modi, the Middle East, White House, AI and Much More

We humans are remarkably adept at adaptation. We can adjust to most changing situations, sometimes swiftly and at other times less quickly. Perhaps the speed with which we can adapt to technology is among the highest. The pace at which we adapt to geopolitical changes is probably slower. Regardless of how quick or slow we are, we most certainly can adapt to change. 

According to Jean Piaget, the Swiss psychologist known mainly for his work on how a child develops cognitive abilities, humans adapt to new information and experiences using two processes. We first assimilate new situations by incorporating the new information into our mental framework. Then, in the second stage, we change our mental framework or structure in order to fit the new information. Together, the two processes help us learn, adjust and grow with the new environment or changed situation.

Russia’s Ukraine War May Conflagrate. In 2023, there were huge upheavals in our environment. Some of them, such as Russia’s conflict with Ukraine began earlier, in early 2022, but it was in 2023 that it became more grim. The war was here to stay. In the beginning, many, including seasoned analysts of geopolitical conflicts, assumed that Russia’s war against Ukraine wouldn’t last long and would peter out because, at least in the beginning, Russia was perceived to be ii-equipped to win the wat and its initial onslaughts had not been very successful. Then there was also the setback when Russian mercenary fighters, the Wagner Group rebelled, ostensibly, against the Kremlin but then backed down before its controversial leader Yevgeny Prigozhin died mysteriously. 

For a while in 2023 it seemed that Russia would back off and that the war would end. It didn’t. As we move quickly towards 2024, it could seem that in the coming year, the Russia-Ukraine conflict could not only continue to rage but Russia could firmly dominate the situation and even be a real threat to other regions in the neighbourhood. Vulnerable countries include Georgia, Moldova, Belarus, and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. 

In Ukraine, which is already straining since the offensive began, the situation could get worse in 2024. Although the European Union (EU) has decided to begin talks on the country’s membership of the union, the war funds that it wanted to provide have been blocked by a veto from Hungary. And NATO, which is dominated by the US, could also be hamstrung in its efforts to help Ukraine because in the US legislators have been blocking moves to increase America’s support to the beleaguered nation.

Meanwhile, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, 71, will contest (and, in all probability, win) a fifth term in next year’s elections and continue his authoritarian grip over his country’s policies, strategies, and actions.

These developments can embolden Russia, which has already unleashed hybrid war tactics against Finland, a new Nato member with which it shares a 1340-km border by sponsoring cyberattacks, pushing in illegal migrants from third countries, and threatening oil pipeline disruptions. 

In 2024, with flagging support for Ukraine, you could expect to see a further conflagration of Russia’s expansionism in the region. 

In Gaza, Peace Could Be A Far Cry. Since October 7 when the Palestinian militant group, Hamas, launched horrific attacks against Israel (more than 1,400 people, mostly civilians were killed, and hundreds were taken as hostages). Israel responded by launching a war in Gaza, killing thousands of Palestinians and displacing nearly a million more. The conflict is still ongoing, despite international efforts to broker a ceasefire. 

With both Israel and Hamas not willing to yield or agree to a long-term ceasefire, the current situation could get even more volatile in 2024. The prospect of settling in favour of a two-nation theory–the idea of creating two separate states for Israelis and Palestinians, based on the 1967 borders–is highly uncertain. Although that theory is backed by the UK, US, the UN, and many other countries, the main protagonists, Israel and Palestine, have irreconcilable differences that are related to issues such as the status of Jerusalem, the fate of Palestinian refugees, the Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and the security concerns of both sides. 

Israel, which has expanded its settlements in the occupied areas of Gaza, also demands that any Palestinian state be demilitarised and recognise Israel as a Jewish state. Hamas, which controls Gaza, has rejected the two-nation theory and calls for the liberation of all of historic Palestine, from the river to the sea, does not recognize Israel’s right to exist and has waged several wars against it, firing rockets and launching attacks from Gaza.

Hamas has Iran’s backing and 2024, it is feared, could see a growing involvement of Iran in the conflict. Iran, whose efforts at developing nuclear weapons is a source of global concern, is allied with Russia (it supplies Russia with drones and other weapons to use against Ukraine). Israel’s counter-offensive against Hamas, which has affected millions of civilians in the region, has already raised the ire of Muslim countries in the neighbourhood and in 2024, unless a breakthrough settlement emerges, the Middle East could become a much larger and more critical arena of warfare that could draw in other nations and become a full-blown catastrophe.

A New Occupant in White House. There are few offices that are of as much consequence to the world as that of the President of the United State of America. It is a fact that is both unfortunate and true. Next year, Americans will elect a new President. While the current president, Joe Biden, will likely be in the race as the Democratic candidate, many expect a Republican to win the contest. Curiously, Donald Trump, who may be besieged by court cases of different kinds and could be even facing jail time, continues to be the most favoured Republican Party candidate. His approval ratings are way higher than other hopefuls from that party (namely, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, and Vivek ramaswamy). 

Biden will be 82 around the time of the election and is believed to be showing signs of age-related unfitness. Trump, 77, is no spring chicken, but his legion of supporters keeps growing. A second Trump presidency could mean a harder line of inward looking American policies, protectionism, transactional diplomacy (read: deal making), and, in effect, a reduction of commitment to Nato, Ukraine, or the Middle East. Any of those policies could alter the global trends in 2024 profoundly.

Even if Trump is not the next President, any other Republican in the White House would likely have similar international policies–for instance, to downsize America’s involvement in international conflicts. As it stands, even Biden is facing problems in his efforts to pledge more support for Ukraine (the Democrats have a slight edge in the upper chamber of the American legislature, the Senate, but in the lower one, the House of Representatives, it is the Republicans that have an edge). 

China’s Third Revolution. China’s growth may have slowed down in 2023 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the weakness in the property sector, and the subdued external demand. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its growth forecast for China to 5.4 percent for 2023, but expects it to slow to 4.6 percent in 2024. Other institutions, such as the World Bank and Moody’s, have also cut their 2024 growth forecasts for China to 4.4 percent or lower. Does that mean China’s influence next year will be less consequential? Most certainly not.

For one, the Chinese government has vowed to strengthen its fiscal policy and expand its domestic demand to boost the economy despite the many challenges and risks it faces such as overcapacity in the electric vehicle and other sectors, the ailing property market, the mounting local government debts, and the structural factors such as weaker demographics.

Yet, we must not forget the Chinese president Xi Jinping’s unwavering ambitions of transforming  the world order by redrawing the geographic boundaries of China and replacing the US-led West as the dominant power in the Asia Pacific. He has also sought to advance the principles of his new China on the global stage and to make other countries follow “a Chinese approach to solving the problems facing mankind”. 

Like Putin, Xi, 70, is here to stay and could remain as his country’s supreme leader for life. Unlike Putin, Xi’s international moves are more entwined with trade, commerce and dominance via China’s manufacturing heft. Expect in 2024 to see China wield more clout in the Middle East, where it has already brokered a historic deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and in the South (especially in developing nations of Africa, and Asia) where its presence and influence has been steadily increasing.

Modi 3.0 and the Rise of India. Next year in May, more than 900 million Indians will be eligible to vote in the parliamentary elections, in which Prime Minister Modi and his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), hope to win a third term. Many observers believe that he will. In a recently held round of state assembly elections, the BJP won three important ones–Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh (in first, it won a fifth consecutive term; and in the other two, it wrested control from its main rival, the Congress party). 

The Congress, which was once a more powerful central party, is now much diminished. Of India’s 28 states, the BJP is now in power in 12 of the 28 states and is in the ruling coalition in four others. The Congress, on the other hand, is now in power in only three states. 

Regardless of its performance in the recent state elections, the BJP’s prospects of winning next year’s parliamentary elections are high. First, because the opposition does not offer a big challenge. A recent coalition of several parties, including the Congress and other BJP-opposed regional and other parties has not really made significant impact on national politics in India.

More importantly, the Modi government, which came to power nearly a decade back in 2014 is seen to have delivered on many fronts. 

According to the IMF, India’s GDP growth rate for 2022 is projected to be 7%, which is higher than the world average of 3.08%. India’s economy is also the fifth largest in the world by nominal GDP, with an estimated size of $3.73 trillion in 2023. However, India’s GDP per capita is still low compared to other major economies, ranking 139th in the world with $2,690 in 2020. Inequality and disparities in development continue to be challenges in a country with a population of 1.4 billion.

Yet, the Modi regime’s track record has won him plaudits. According to a US-based consultancy firm, Morning Consult, Prime Minister Modi has the highest approval rating among 22 global leaders, with 76% of the respondents expressing satisfaction with his performance. Similarly, the Ipsos IndiaBus Poll found that Modi had an approval rating of 65% among urban Indians as of September 2023.

Some of the possible reasons for Modi’s high approval rating are his government’s achievements in various sectors, such as tax reform, bankruptcy code, sanitation, housing, energy, infrastructure, digital services, and national security. Next year, you could expect him to win another lease of trust from Indian voters.

Finally, 2024 Could be the Year of AI. Many believe that the real threat of artificial intelligence (AI), whose technology is rapidly progressing, is when it becomes capable of performing any intellectual task that humans or animals can do. Hypothetically, it is called AGI or artificial general intelligence and would be able to understand natural language, reason, plan, create, and adapt to new situations. 

AGI is the long-term goal of some AI research being conducted now at companies such as OpenAI and others and while it is not known when or whether it will be achieved, many have expressed apprehension about what its impact on humanity could be. For instance, AI could be weaponised. Drug discovery tools could be used to make chemical weapons; AI could use disinformation to destabilise societies and nations; or be misused by empowering groups with destructive intent. ‘

Expect 2024 to be the year of debate about how to control or regulate the development of AI and what impact it could have on humanity: on jobs, sovereignty, stability, and society.

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Six More Years of Vladimir Putin

What Six More Years of Vladimir Putin Will Mean for the World

Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President who has been in power since 1999 (for eight of those 24 years he was formally prime minister but, in effect, still called the shots), just announced that he will “contest” Russia’s presidential elections scheduled for March. The word contest is in quotes because it is almost a certainty that he will be elected President for a fifth term. Putin has no rivals or challengers of any consequence and in 2020 he amended the Russian Constitution, resetting the number of terms he has served, allowing him to contest in 2024 and 2036.

Putin is 71 now and the modification of the Constitutions effectively means that in 2036 after his next five-year term ends, he can contest again at 84 and, if he wins again, be President till he is 90. In Putin’s Russia, democracy exists only in theory.

Russia is officially a federal, democratic republic with a constitution that guarantees the rights and freedoms of its citizens. However, in reality it is an authoritarian or hybrid regime that concentrates power in the hands of Putin and suppresses dissent and opposition. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, Russia is ranked 124th out of 167 countries in the Democracy Index, which measures the state of democracy in the world. Freedom House, a non-governmental organisation that monitors human rights and democracy, gives Russia a score of 20 out of 100 in its Freedom in the World report.

Russia has no competitive and independent political system, and the ruling party, United Russia, which backs Putin, dominates the parliament and the regional governments, and the opposition parties are either co-opted, marginalised, or repressed by the authorities.

Putin’s continuance as President obviously has big implications for geopolitics. Russia is engaged in a continuing war with Ukraine since it attacked the latter in February 2022, and the latest situation shows that it might be at an advantage because Ukraine’s counter-offensive actions have not been very successful. 

Western support for Ukraine is also flagging due to the prolonged and costly conflict with Russia, the post-pandemic economic challenges, and the upcoming elections in some key countries, notably the US presidential elections next year. The total amount of aid provided or promised by the West to Ukraine since the war began is estimated to already be over $128 billion. 

The West is also focused now on what happens in Israel’s conflict with the Hamas in the Middle East and this may have reprioritised the concern about the situation in Ukraine. If the West or NATO support for Ukraine wanes further, many believe that it could strengthen Putin’s ambitions to target other regions in the Baltic areas. Countries such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which are worried that they could be the next target of Russia’s aggression, as they have a large ethnic Russian population and a history of Soviet occupation. They are also members of NATO and the EU, which could put them in conflict with Russia’s interest. 

Some other former Soviet bloc countries that could be vulnerable to Russian offensives are Belarus, Georgia and Moldova, as they have also experienced political unrest and pro-democracy movements in recent years, and have faced pressure from Russia to join its sphere of influence. However, unlike the Baltic states, they are not part of NATO or the EU, which could limit their options for defense and support. 

Even Finland is aware of a potential threat from Russia. Finland has a 1340-km border with Russia and the two countries have a long and complex history of interactions, including wars and annexations to cooperation, trade partnerships, and neutrality. Finland has maintained a careful balance between the two countries, avoiding direct confrontation and seeking dialogue and cooperation. However, after Finland became a member of NATO this year and its support for Ukraine, its relations with  Russia have strained.

Russia now views Finland as a hostile country. In fact, according to Finnish intelligence, Russia has already unleashed a form of hybrid war against Finland. Bypassing conventional confrontation, it has adopted other means of provoking instability: recently, Finland closed all border crossings with Russia after the latter was believed to be facilitating the entry of illegal immigrants from third countries in Africa and the Middle East into Finland; it has used cyberattacks to destabilise key Finnish official websites; and could cause disturbances in crude oil and gas pipelines that supply fuel to Finland. 

Putin’s hand is also strengthened by the firmly entrenched regime of China’s supreme leader, President Xi Jingping. In March this year Xi was awarded a third five-year term as President and he is on track, like Putin, for a lifelong tenure as his country’s ruler. Xi, 70, has no rivals or challengers, and has huge ambitions of creating a new world order led by China to challenge the West’s dominance in geopolitics. He has vowed support to Putin and Russia, which he counts as China’s biggest ally. 

China, Russia, and Iran could emerge as a new power triangle that is opposed to certain US foreign policies and seeks to create a new order in the world1. These three countries have recently conducted joint naval drills in the Indian Ocean, signed a 25-year cooperation deal, and expressed support for each other on various regional and global issues. 

Iran, along with North Korea, Syria, and Belarus support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China, although it remains ambivalent on the issue, views Russia as a key partner and counterbalance to the West. 

A continuance of Putin’s rule in Russia will, therefore, mean that the country will remain under the influence of its powerful intelligence and security services and those will continue to shape Russia’s policies, both domestically and internationally. 

It will also mean that Russia will continue to challenge the West on various fronts with cyberattacks, military interventions such as its attack and invasion of Ukraine, and human right violations. Unless Putin is forced to step down or a popular uprising against him succeeds, Russia under his leadership will continue to be a big threat in geopolitics.

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Elon Musk Starlink Direct-To-Phone Satellites

Elon Musk Might be the Most Powerful Human in History

It is unusual to see Elon Musk go on the backfoot. The richest man in the world (at the time of writing, he was worth $245 billion) is usually in control of everything all the time, even when his major businesses such as the electric vehicle maker Tesla, or the rocket launching and space exploration company SpaceX stumble, miss deadlines or fail to meet expectations. In such situations, his businesses and, indeed, he himself, always seem to bounce back and prove their critics wrong. Last week was different, however. Musk seemed to have shot himself in the foot and put at risk his newest business, the social networking site, X, known as Twitter before he acquired it last year.

In a wide-ranging interview at a New York Times event last week, Musk burst out against a number of major advertisers who are temporarily boycotting X following Musk’s apparent endorsement of some anti-Semitic posts as well as his policy to relax moderation or filtration of what people post on the site. Musk repeatedly used the “f word” against advertisers and said that he refused to be blackmailed by them. 

After Musk paid a staggering $44 billion for Twitter, he sacked 80% of the company’s staff, renamed it X, and lost more than half its advertising revenues. Now, after his most recent expletive-laden retort against the boycott, more advertisers may desert X, whose business model is highly dependent on advertising for revenues.

Yet, this doesn’t seem to faze Musk who is probably the world’s single most powerful and influential private individual. Musk is the founder, CEO, and chief engineer of SpaceX, the co-founder, CEO, and product architect of Tesla, the founder of The Boring Company, the co-founder of Neuralink, and besides being the co-founder and initial co-chairman of OpenAI, this year he founded his own artificial intelligence company. xAI, which has debuted its own AI chatbot, Grok.

His businesses, particularly the electric vehicle maker Tesla and rocket builder and launcher SpaceX have impressive heft. Tesla, which began commercial operations in 2008, already has a 20% market share of the global electric vehicle market (last year it produced 1.4 million cars); and more than 50% of the US EV market. SpaceX has launched more payloads than any country or company in the world, all put together. Most of these payloads were its own Starlink satellites (more on that later). Neuralink, his venture that aims at implanting a chip in the human brain so that people can communicate with electronic devices and computers simply by thinking, is already beginning human trials. And, the Boring Company has embarked upon low-cost multi-level tunnel passages to offer cost-effective transportation in the US.

Musk’s businesses and ambitions are grand. His aim is to make humans a multiplanetary species beginning with a project to colonise Mars. In his Optimus project, he has been developing humanoid robots that are able to self-calibrate their arms and legs and have superior visual sensing abilities. And Tesla is developing driverless cars that Musk hopes will minimise road-related fatalities drastically. He is driven and inspired by thoughts that seem to be straight out of futuristic science fiction.

Besides his businesses, what distinguishes the 52-year-old South African origin entrepreneur’s growth is the power and influence that he wields in the world. Musk’s influence on the world and geopolitics is hard to measure, but it is undeniable that he has a significant impact on various fields and industries, such as space exploration, electric vehicles, renewable energy, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and cryptocurrency. However, his influence also comes with challenges and controversies, as he sometimes acts in ways that are unpredictable, risky, or controversial.

One instance of his influence and controversy is the use of Starlink satellites in Ukraine. Starlink, which operates a large constellation of satellites in low-earth orbit, has been used by Ukrainian civilians, government, and the military to maintain internet connectivity and communication during the war with Russia, which started in 2022. Starlink has been used for humanitarian purposes, as well as defence and attacks on Russian positions.

Last year, however, SpaceX disapproved the use of Starlink for offensive warfare and declined to extend its availability outside of the country’sUkraine’s borders, including in Russian-occupied territories like Crimea. This stance was criticised by Ukraine as it prevented them from carrying out military operations in those areas. SpaceX also reportedly turned off Starlink service near the Crimean coast last year to disrupt a Ukrainian sneak attack on the Russian naval fleet, fearing that Russia would respond with nuclear weapons. This decision was believed to be driven by Musk’s conversations with senior Russian officials.

If that is true, the significance of it is crucial: here is one private individual, Musk, who is, in effect, able to decide the course of action in an ongoing conflict between two nations by controlling how one of them communicates and uses satellite infrastructure that he provides. 

Many have questioned whether Musk has the right to decide who can use his technology and how, and whose interest is he acting on behalf of. 

The US government has also leaned heavily on Musk’s support.  The Pentagon has contracted with SpaceX to provide Starlink service to Ukraine, as well as to its own military forces. The use of Starlink in the Russo-Ukrainian War is a complex and evolving issue that reflects Musk’s influence and controversy in the world.

In space exploration, while SpaceX has become the biggest player in the world, surpassing countries such as Russia and China, it has become the US space authority, NASA’s main destination for outsourcing activities such as launches, exploration and much of its space missions. It is like the execution and operational arm for America’s space mission. And, for the record, SpaceX is a private company of which Musk owns 42% and has 79% of the voting power.

In geopolitics, Musk’s influence has been growing, fuelled by his heft in business and technology. Last year in October, he was alleged to have had a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin in which he proposed a peace plan (Musk himself has denied that it happened but he is believed to be in touch with senior Russian officials). Last month he met Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu and toured sites of the October 7 Hamas attacks with him. He is also believed to have discussed AI aspects of security. 

Musk, who has significant interests in China where Tesla has a big operation, also enjoys a rapport with China’s supreme leader Xi Jingping as well as with other world leaders, including India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This summer after Musk met Modi in New York, he said he was a fan of Modi and that he intended to bring Tesla and Starlink to India as soon as possible. 

Musk’s power and influence are likely to grow in the future, as he continues to pursue his ambitious goals and projects, such as colonising Mars, making humans a multiplanetary species, and achieving the technological singularity. 

For now, his acquisition of Twitter may seem like a misadventure but that could be a momentary phenomenon. Musk has plans to transform the platform into a financial services network that combines social networking and financial transactions. He has also hinted that he wants to enter other areas such as politics, education, and media. The debate about whether he is a good or evil force continues but undoubtedly his influence and impact on the world is undeniable and unique.

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What If Trump Becomes Next US President!

What Will Become of the World if Donald Trump is the Next US Prez?

The focus in India, for the moment at least, is on the outcome of the elections in five states. Many believe that the results of the assembly elections this month in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram can indicate what could happen in the parliamentary elections in May 2024 when the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) (along with a few allies), which is completing its second term in government, will aim to win a third term at the Centre. Predicting elections can be a mug’s game because they can be unpredictable but 2024 is not just about elections in India. It is a year full of elections around the world, and the outcomes of some of them could have a profound impact across the world, India included.

In 2024, according to the Economist, there will be more than 70 elections in countries, which together have a population of 4.2 billion. That is more than half of the 8.04 billion that the United Nations estimates live on our planet. Of all of those elections, the one in America will probably have the biggest impact on the rest of the world.

The US presidential election is scheduled for November 5, 2024, which is nearly a year away but speculation and predictions about who could be the next person in the White House already abound. According to the latest polls and betting odds, former President Donald Trump is the favorite to win the Republican nomination and has a competitive chance of defeating President Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 rematch. Trump leads by small margins in battleground states and nationally, despite facing two impeachments and legal drama. There are several ongoing legal battles that he has to fight but this does not seem to bother his staunch supporters.

Among the Republican hopefuls, Trump has the highest approval rating among Republican voters, with more than 50% support in the national primary polls. His closest competitor, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, has fallen below 20% nationally. No other contender for the Republican nomination is at or above 10%.

On the other side, President Joe Biden will be running for reelection as the Democrat candidate but his chances are quite uncertain. Biden will turn 82 next year. His approval rating has been low. He has faced criticism on his handling of various issues: the Coronavirus pandemic, which America dealt with quite sloppily; the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, which led to a resurgence of the Taliban and the deterioration of human rights, especially for women and minorities; and logjams hindering lawmaking in the legislative process in the US legislature.

Biden also has to contend with the age factor that acts against him. Trump, who will be 78 next year, is not young either but there have been rumblings in the media and even in the Democratic Party that question Biden’s fitness–both physical and mental. Some Democrats would probably want to go with a fresh, and perhaps, younger candidate but there has been no alternative and with the campaigning on both sides already well underway, it may be too late to switch horses.

What then if Trump is indeed back in the White House for the second time as President of the US? It’s a complex question because he could impact America and the rest of the world in several ways. The world is witnessing several issues of critical importance. There is a war on between Russia and Ukraine for nearly two years since the former attacked the latter in February 2002; since October, Israel and the militant group, Hamas, have been at a war with the most horrific manifestations in Gaza; China has been consistently and steadily trying to put in place a “new global order” that aims at challenging the US and the West’s dominance in geopolitics; and an alignment of China with Russia, Iran, and other Arab world nations is emerging.

Against this landscape if a Trump regime is back in America, it could have a critical impact on the state of the world.

ALSO READ: An Indicted Trump Could Still Be US President

Trump is widely expected to further continue his America First strategy of foreign policy, diplomacy, and trade. What that means is he will focus on reducing US trade deficits by raising tariffs on imports; his policies could make America more unilateral and confrontational; and he could be more transactional rather than be driven by other objectives in dealing with foreign countries. This means America, which does the heavy lifting in alliances such as NATO, and organisations such as the UN, and the World Trade Organisation (WTO), could reduce its commitments to them and, thereby weaken them. As it could by retreating from its commitments to the Paris climate accord.

If a Trump regime (or for that matter any Republican regime that might be elected to power) reduces the commitment to NATO, it could jeopardise the future stability of Europe. Here’s how. According to Article 5 of its agreement, if a NATO country is attacked, it means that it is an attack on all members. This means that all NATO members will consider the attack as an act of self-defence and will take actions to assist the country attacked, including the use of armed force if necessary. Trump’s position on Article 5 of NATO has been unclear and inconsistent.

In March 2016, before he became President, he said that NATO was obsolete and that Russia no longer posed the threat the Soviet Union did. He also questioned whether he would protect smaller states from Russia if they did not pay their fair share.

Trump’s support for Article 5 is conditional and dependent on his perception of NATO’s relevance and performance. He has not consistently expressed his commitment to the alliance and its core tenet, which could undermine its credibility and deterrence. He has, however, publicly stated that that the war in Ukraine “must end” but that “this fight is far more important for Europe than it is for the US”.

If Trump scales down US’ commitment to NATO he could further damage the trans-Atlantic relationship by imposing trade tariffs, sanctions, and, importantly, by recalling US troops from Europe. These could play into the hands of Russia, which could get emboldened to attack other former Soviet territories. It would also weaken NATO and threaten the stability in Europe.

Trump’s stance on China is less predictable. He could pursue a more aggressive approach by imposing further tariffs and restrictions on Chinese ownership and investment in the US, as well as challenging China’s actions in the South China Sea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Xinjiang. This could escalate the trade and technology war between the two countries, as well as increase the risk of a military conflict or a new cold war.

Some of what the stance could be towards China could be influenced by Trump’s close relationship with Russia and President Vladimir Putin. Trump had once said that he believed Putin rather than the US Intelligence agencies about Russia’s alleged interference in US elections, which Putin had denied. A benign approach to Russia would further fan its expansionist actions such as the attack on Ukraine. And with China an avowed supporter of Russia it could influence Trump’s stance against China itself.

In the Middle East, Trump could resume his “maximum pressure campaign” against Iran by withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal, which restricts Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons and one to which Iran’s compliance has been questioned. If Trump opts for more sanctions instead of a mutually agreed deal (between Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—China, France, Russia, UK, US, plus Germany, together with the European Union), tensions could flare up further in the region and Iran could resume its nuclear activities. In the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, Iran, which has a history of backing militant groups opposed to Israel, could get involved more overtly than it has till now.

What could a Trump regime mean for India? One possibility is that Trump would continue to elevate America’s ties with India and the growing partnership between the two countries, especially in the areas of defence, security, and trade. Trump has been supportive of India’s role in the Indo-Pacific region and has recognised India as a major defence partner. He has also praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his policies, such as the abrogation of Article 370 in Kashmir and the Citizenship Amendment Act. Trump and Modi have also developed a personal rapport and have held several joint rallies, such as the “Howdy Modi” event in Houston and the “Namaste Trump” event in Ahmedabad.

Yet, a Trump administration could also create more challenges and uncertainties for India, particularly in immigration, climate change, and regional stability. In the past, Trump has imposed tariffs on some Indian goods, such as steel and aluminum. He has also threatened to revoke India’s preferential trade status under the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP).

Trump has also tightened the visa rules for skilled workers and students, which could affect the prospects of many Indians who seek to work or study in the US.

He withdrew from the Paris climate accord and accused India of being one of the world’s biggest polluters. Trump has also been inconsistent and unpredictable in his approach to Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, and China, which could have implications for India’s security and interests in the region.

To sum up, a Trump in the White House could be like a bull in a china shop (pardon the pun).

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Hardliner ‘Indians’ in UK and US Politics

Why Are There So Many Hardliner ‘Indians’ in UK and US Politics?

For a brief while in 2015-16, a swathe of the Indian media went nearly hysterical in its fervour to cover Bobby Jindal’s campaign to run for US President as a Republican candidate. That campaign didn’t last long because Jindal soon dropped out of the race but the pronounced enthusiasm with which the Indian media tracked his campaign was noteworthy. Jindal was the son of Indian immigrants and that Indian connection seemed to mean that what he did was newsworthy to the Indian media and their target audiences. To Jindal, it didn’t mean a thing. In fact, he didn’t give a fig for being of Indian origin. Born to immigrant Hindu parents (his Indian name is Piyush), he had not only changed his name to a western sounding one but also converted to Christianity, and, at least during his campaign, assiduously distanced himself from his Indian roots.

Much of the Indian diaspora that could vote in the US usually does so for the Democrats and not the Republicans so they were neither his vote bank nor did he target them. His target was the right-leaning Middle American voters. Yet, in India, we adopted him as one of us despite the fact that he himself all but shunned his roots. Famously, a newspaper quoted him then as saying that he did not believe in hyphenated identities such as Indian-American and that his parents came to the US from India four decades ago “to become Americans and not Indian-Americans”. 

There are not very many people of Indian origin high up in American politics but the numbers are growing. Kamala Devi Harris, the incumbent US vice-president and a Democrat, is the daughter of an Indian mother and a Jamaican-American father. Nikki Haley (whose birth name, which she has ditched, is Nimarata Randhawa) was born to Sikh parents, and is a former governor of South Carolina, and is now running for President as a Republican. She too became a Christian and shuns her Sikh origins. In 2001 she reportedly listed her race as “white” on her voter registration card.

One of Haley’s rivals in the race for getting the Republican nomination is Vivek Ramaswamy. A 38-year-old biotech entrepreneur who appears to have surfed the waves of the Great American Dream with perfection, Ramaswamy is a millionaire, a vegetarian, and a Hindu, but whose right-leaning views veer more towards Donald Trump’s than most of the others who are vying to be nominated as the Republican candidate. Ramaswamy distances himself from being an Indian-American and has hardline views that call for reducing US’s involvement in international conflicts such as the one in Ukraine or in the Middle East and for tightening the policies on immigration. 

There are similar examples of Indian origin politicians in the UK, whose Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, himself is of Indian origin. Sunak’s government was recently rocked by a controversy when his (recently sacked) home secretary, Suella Braverman, also of Indian origin, faced criticism for her controversial comments on asylum seekers, homeless people, and pro-Palestinian protests. She also accused the Metropolitan Police in London of bias in their action against protestors. Another former Indian-origin UK home secretary, Priti Patel, also of the Conservative Party, had to resign in 2022 after a series of controversies. Patel had taken a very hard stance against immigrants and asylum seekers, including a now-aborted plan to deport them to a third country.

Both in the US and the UK there is a rise of second generation Indian-origin politicians who are born in those countries. This is akin to what is happening in other fields: business and industry, professional disciplines, and so on.

Many ascribe this to what is described as the “model minority myth”. It is a sociological phenomenon that refers to the stereotype of some minority groups, particularly in the US, and pertaining usually to Asian Americans including those of Indian origin. These are successful, well-adjusted, self-reliant, and well-assimilated groups that do not need a helping hand in terms of economic aid or social assistance.

The concept of “model minority myth” originated in the US in the 1960s and 70s when a different kind of immigrant emerged. For instance, the formally educated Indians such as graduate engineers and doctors who migrated to the US for higher studies, completed those, and then stayed on to build successful professional careers. The phrase was used to compare and contrast them with other minority groups such as African-Americans and Latinos.  

The model minority myth has been used as a simplistic way of discriminating and neglecting marginalised minority communities. A crude explanation of how it is used is this: by propping up instances of, say, successful Indian-origin or Chinese-origin minorities as a model and questioning why other immigrant communities are not able to emulate them. This sort of thing oversimplifies the issues of race, circumstances of immigration, socioeconomic class privileges, and many other differences.

However, the emerging breed of Indian-origin politicians in the US and UK with pronounced right-wing views and often pandering, as Republican presidential aspirant Ramaswamy does, to middle America’s voters, or as Braverman or Patel do to the more hardline conservative sections of the British electorate, could be described as examples of model minorities. 

Consider this: what would the backlash against a white British native-origin politician be if he or she said the same things that Braverman did? Would it not be more severe? Or, if the consistently “anti-woke” statements that Ramaswamy makes were made by, say, one of his white rivals in the Republican Party aspiring for nomination as presidential candidate? A friend in London joked the other day that Braverman or before her, Patel, were doing or saying things that their party leaders probably wanted to do but couldn’t because of the backlash that they would face. In other words, the Ramaswamys, Bravermans, and Patels, were willing to be convenient pawns, albeit of the “model minority” variety.

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Tricky For Journalists To Cover A War

How Tricky It Is For Journalists To Cover A War

Last week, Israel accused four freelance Gaza-based journalists who have worked with Western media outlets of having advance knowledge of the Hamas attack on October 7, which triggered the ongoing bloody conflict in Gaza. The journalists, mainly photographers, were accused of collaborating with Reuters, Associated Press, CNN, and the New York Times, all of them media outlets of considerable repute.

The accusation, made by Israeli communications minister Shlomo Karhi, was based on a report by a pro-Israeli media watchdog group, Honest Reporting, which stated that the journalists and, therefore, the organisations they were working for had prior knowledge of the horrific attacks by Hamas. In the past also, Honest Reporting has accused newspapers such as the New York Times and other western publications of an anti-Israel bias in their coverage of the conflict between Israel and Palestine.

The accusations have serious implications. In the October 7 attack, 1,200 Israelis died and more than 240 were taken hostage. It has led to a bloody battle with Israel seeking retribution by launching a full-scale attack against Hamas but the collateral damage from which has killed, displaced or injured thousands of civilians.

On their part, the four media outlets—Reuters, AP, CNN, and the New York Times—have denied any prior knowledge of the attacks. They emphasised that there were no arrangements in advance with the journalists to provide photos. The New York Times described the accusations as “untrue and outrageous,” highlighting the risk such unsupported claims pose to journalists on the ground in Israel and Gaza.

Covering wars such as the one that is ongoing in Gaza or the one that is raging for nearly two years in Ukraine after Russia attacked the country in February 2022 is fraught with risks. Of course, the primary risks that journalists face are obvious: the possibility of getting caught in the attacks, suffering injuries, or even getting killed. But there are other risks. How credible are journalists’ war-time sources?

In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the picture of what is happening can vary sharply, depending on what the source is. If it is the Russian propaganda machinery, which also includes pro-Kremlin bloggers “embedded” in Russia’s military in the war zone, then you will get the pro-Russia view; if it is sourced from Ukraine, then it is likely going to be an entirely different view.

In Gaza, journalists covering the conflict face significant challenges. First, there are the restrictions. Israel has not allowed foreign journalists to enter Gaza. As a result, Western correspondents (as well as Indian media outlets that sent their representatives there) have reported extensively on the grief of Israeli families, but they miss a vital aspect of the story by not being able to witness the situation firsthand in Gaza. Without experiencing the prayers Palestinians make when they lose loved ones or learning about the life stories of those who have been killed, the coverage of Gaza remains incomplete compared to the coverage of Israel.

Israel has been steadily suppressing news reporting in the Gaza Strip. Journalists have faced danger, with some killed or wounded, media premises destroyed, and communication disruptions. There is a looming threat of an all-out media blackout in Gaza.

Journalists also face entry bans in Gaza. Since Israel blockaded the area 16 years ago, journalists cannot enter the Palestinian territory without authorisation from Israeli authorities. In addition, there could be further restrictions on Muslim journalists as three Muslim journalists from MSNBC—Mehdi Hasan, Ayman Mohieddine, and Ali Velshi—were suspended. This decision coincided with escalating tensions in the Gaza area.

On the other side too, Hamas, the ruling group in Gaza, has imposed (and later rescinded) some restrictions on journalists covering the conflict. After the recent conflict in Gaza, Hamas issued sweeping new restrictions on journalists in the Palestinian enclave. These rules included not reporting on Gazans killed by misfired Palestinian rockets; and avoiding coverage of the military capabilities of Palestinian terror groups. However, these guidelines were rescinded after discussions with authorities in Gaza. The Foreign Press Association (FPA), which represents international media, expressed that such restrictions would have been a severe limitation on press freedom and safety. Hamas confirmed the reversal and stated that there are currently no restrictions.

For journalists, trying to cover a war objectively and without bias could be an oxymoron. Most journalists are dependent on one or the other side of the warring nations. If reporters and photographers are in Israel covering what is going on in Gaza, you can expect their reports and dispatches to reflect the Israeli view of things; if they are on the other side, then the views could be quite different. Over the past nearly two years, making sense of who is making progress or suffering more losses in Ukraine has become a complex business: you either get the Russian view or the Ukrainian view, none of which might be the “true” picture.

The Cosmic Blueprint of Xi Jinping

There is a photograph that you can find with relative ease on the Internet. It shows China’s supreme leader and President Xi Jinping, flanked by Russian President Vladimir Putin, United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres, and some two dozen top dignitaries from around the world. The photograph is from the third Belt & Road Forum for International Cooperation that was held on October 17 & 18 in Beijing.

It also marked the 10th anniversary of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure and investment project announced by Xi in 2013. Many see this as part of China’s and Xi’s larger vision of a blueprint for a new world order to challenge the existing international system that it feels is unfairly skewed in favour of the United States and its allies.

Xi’s vision transcends mere governance and is more of a cosmic plan to reshape China’s role, influence, prominence, and, indeed, dominance of the world.

China was once happy to hide its capacities–economic, military, and cultural–and bide its time. It is no longer content to do so. Xi, who is on an unprecedented third term at the helm of his nation, wants to redefine the norms, dismantle existing “western biased” hierarchies and meld together a world where China’s rise is unstoppable. This vision unambiguously pervades every forum, conference, policy formulation, and international strategy that China now espouses.

The Belt & Road Forum was no different. The heads of states who attended it hailed China’s strategy and Xi’s vision. Notably, the United Nations’ Secretary General was a participant at the forefront of the forum.

For the West, Xi’s gambit resembles a tectonic shift. American wars overseas, erratic foreign policy shifts, and deep political polarisation have eroded confidence in US global leadership. Moreover, within the US, opinions, support, and allegiances are sharply polarised and divisive, raising questions there and elsewhere in the world about the relevance and effectiveness of a US-led world order. Is its approach sustainable? Can it navigate the tempests of climate change, geopolitical tensions, and humanitarian crises?

As China’s assertiveness grows, the West faces a choice: adapt or resist. Xi’s alternative model—multilateralism reframed as great-power balancing—tempts some. Yet, lurking beneath are shadows of Beijing’s iron-fisted rule—surveillance, censorship, and repression.

Where does India fit into this? Thus far, India’s approach has been cautious as it tries to balance ancient wisdom and modern ambitions. India seeks economic ties with China while guarding its strategic interests. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) looms large—an infrastructure web that binds nations but also raises sovereignty concerns. India is not a signatory to that initiative.

India’s strategy has been a sort of tightrope walk where it has tried to tango with both the West and with Beijing. It wants to harness economic opportunities from both, yet remains wary of Beijing’s territorial assertiveness and military buildup in the Indo-Pacific.

Xi’s vision does resonate with a large swathe of regions and countries around the world, including predominantly developing nations in Asia, Africa, and South America. His vision exhorts countries to forge creative coalitions—beyond simplistic divisions of democracies versus autocracies. North Korea and Iran share this stage with moderate, modernising nations. The global future, Xi suggests, demands nimble alliances.

In this scenario, India, which has had a rich history of alliances with international partners, has to traverse a shifting landscape. As the most populous nation in the world and with hundreds of millions of young people with high aspirations, India would ideally like to have a louder voice in the emerging new order, and not merely be a spectator. For that to happen, perhaps it is time for India to review its tightrope-walking style of geopolitical strategy and be more decisive.

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Making Sense of Ukraine and Gaza

Making Sense of Ukraine and Gaza When the Media Turns Fickle

Is the focus of the international media fickle? Since October when the Israel-Hamas war broke out in Gaza, much of the international media’s focus has moved from Ukraine to the Middle East. Russia’s offensive in Ukraine began in February 2022 and in three months, it will have lasted for two years, which is by any measure a very long period. The war there shows no sign of abating but the global media’s focus appears to have shifted to the Middle East. Reports on Ukraine and what is happening there don’t make it to the front pages of newspapers, news websites, or as the top stories on TV news channels.

Journalists sometimes explain these shifts as a response to reader (or viewer) fatigue that can set in when people are bombarded constantly with news about one situation, in this case the conflagration in Ukraine, which has been hogging prime time news and front-page headlines for months. There could be other reasons for the shift in focus.

The Middle East conflict is one of the most long-standing and complex issues in the world, involving many sensitive and controversial topics such as colonialism, imperialism, self-determination, self-defense and the Holocaust. It is also more dynamic and unpredictable: a conflict such as the ongoing one in Gaza can quickly escalate and involve other neighbouring nations such as Iran or others belonging to the Arab world. Also, the degree of involvement of global players such as the US in the area is higher. So is the polarisation among the world’s nations on the issue of who they support–Israel or Hamas. 

In journalistic terms, the Middle East generates more news and updates compared to the relatively localised and contained situation in Ukraine. The situation in the Middle East, for instance, can directly impact the interests, stability, and security of several countries both in the regions as well as in the West. Instability in the Middle East can affect global oil prices and trade and, therefore, the global economy in a far bigger way than Russia’s ongoing offensive in Ukraine. Thus, it could be a more relevant and urgent issue for media outlets and their consumers.

Still, the loss of media attention on Ukraine could have an impact on the struggle against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. International awareness of what is happening there is of importance for Ukraine in order for it to continue to get support from its international allies and sympathisers. If the focus of the global media on the region falters, Ukraine could find it hard to counter Russia’s propaganda and disinformation aimed at undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty.

What is happening in Ukraine right now? Let’s do a quick recap. Since February 2022, Russia has launched a major military offensive against Ukraine, violating the 2015 Minsk agreements that aimed to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Russia has amassed over 100,000 troops along the border with Ukraine, as well as deployed tanks, artillery, drones, and cyberattacks. It claims that it is defending the rights of the Russian-speaking population in the Donbas region, where pro-Russian separatists have been fighting the Ukrainian government since 2014. 

However, Ukraine and its Western allies accuse Russia of aggression and territorial expansion, and have imposed sanctions and provided military aid to Ukraine. The fighting has intensified in recent weeks, especially along the Lyman front in northeast Ukraine, where Ukraine says it has repelled several Russian attacks with heavy casualties on both sides. The situation remains tense and volatile, as diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the crisis have failed so far.

How could it end in Ukraine? There are different scenarios that could emerge in the region. First, with neither side showing signs of compromising or giving up, the war might continue for months or years as Russian and Ukrainian forces grind each other down. The economic and humanitarian costs of this could be enormous.

In a scenario where, say, Russia wins by launching a very large-scale offensive and overruns most of eastern and southern Ukraine, including the strategic port city of Mariupol. If Ukraine is unable to resist or counterattack, and its Western allies offer only limited support, Russia could consolidate its control over Crimea and create a land corridor to it. Ukraine would be left weakened and isolated, and its aspirations to join NATO and the EU would come to nought.

If, however, Ukraine, with the help of its Western allies and partners, manages to repel or deter a large-scale Russian invasion and inflict heavy casualties on Russia, the Kremlin would face further international isolation and condemnation, while Ukraine could gain confidence and recognition and move closer to joining NATO and the EU. 

The other less predictable factor is, however, how China’s clearly proclaimed support of Russia will play out in the emerging scenario. Beijing has endorsed its friendship with Russia but as of now it has not directly played a role in the ongoing conflict. If Russia decides to scale up its offensive by invading other countries in the neighbourhood, such as Belarus or Moldova, or uses nuclear weapons, things could go out of hand and the war could spin into a global crisis of dangerous proportions.

What is happening in Gaza right now? The conflict between Israel and Hamas, the Islamist group that controls the Gaza Strip, is one of the longest and most intractable in the Middle East. The latest round of violence erupted in October 2023, after a series of provocations and clashes in Jerusalem, the West Bank, and Gaza. Hamas and other militant groups fired thousands of rockets at Israel, while Israel responded with airstrikes and ground operations in Gaza. The war has killed more than 1,200 people in Gaza and 50 in Israel, and displaced more than 300,000 in Gaza and 100,000 in Israel. The war has also sparked unrest and violence among Israeli Arabs and Jews, and increased tensions with neighboring countries and regional powers.

How could it end in Gaza? In one scenario, it could end with a ceasefire agreement, which could be mediated by Egypt, the US, and the United Nations. The agreement could lead to opening border crossings, relaxing the blockade of Gaza and ensuring rebuilding of its infrastructure and disarmament of Hamas. However, the status of Jerusalem, the fate of Palestinian refugees, or the prospect of a two-state solution in the region would still remain elusive and that could mean that the embers of discontentment and conflict would continue to smoulder. Violence could erupt again and a rerun of the current conflict could happen anytime.

 In the unlikely event that one side achieves a decisive victory then there could be other scenarios. For instance, if Israel eliminates Hamas’s leadership and capabilities, or if Hamas inflicts significant damage and casualties on Israel. The victory could also be influenced by the level and nature of the international involvement and pressure. The victory could create a new balance of power and reality on the ground, but it could also generate more resentment and resistance among the defeated side.

There is another disturbing scenario that could emerge and that is if the war continues indefinitely, with neither side able to defeat or deter the other. The war then becomes a chronic and low-intensity conflict in the region, punctuated by occasional flare-ups and quiet spells. This scenario would take a heavy toll on the civilian population, the economy, and the environment, and would hobble the prospects of peace and coexistence. It could also make the region more vulnerable to interference and involvement by external powers such as the West or China.

If, however, both sides see the benefits of a negotiated settlement, it could augur well for the regions. If a serious and sincere negotiation, involving all the relevant parties and stakeholders, is possible, and if it could address the root causes and grievances of the conflict there could be a possibility of a long-term comprehensive solution. 

Such a negotiated accord would need mediation by a third party, say the US, the UN, or the Arab League. The aim of such a settlement, however, would have to be mutual recognition and respect, a stop to hostilities, and, most importantly, the creation of an independent Palestinian state coexisting with Israel. All of those, at least now, seem to be a tall order.

As the two wars continue and the media focus on each vacillating, the world must hope that neither of them turns into a full-blown conflagration. For that would be a catastrophe for all.

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