Hafiz Saeed Scores Duck in Pak Polls: Lessons for J&K

nd Prime Minister of the country. While it is a matter of conjecture what changes the new regime will bring to India-Pakistan relations, India can take solace in one outcome of the elections. Hafiz Saeed’s party Allah-u-Akbar Tehreek (AAT) drew a blank. Parts of Pakistan establishment continue to do everything possible to shield Mumbai attack mastermind Saeed despite being declared by UN a terrorist carrying $10 million bounty on his head. The last step to glorify him was his induction along with other radicalised elements into mainstream politics. Saeed’s family members and a bunch of extremists did contest elections, launching 265 candidates including 12 women, under the banner of AAT but failed to win a single seat. Saeed’s rallies in last few years have been attended by large crowd which created an optical mirage that he commands a mass support base, one of the reasons of his enjoying patronage of many political parties also. Hafiz Saeed’s fate in Pakistan elections brings some important lessons for Kashmir. People of Kashmir have been silently suffering the scourge of terrorism, sponsored/inducted by Pakistan Army/ISI for many years. The extortion and terrorising of family members for recruitment of young children has been on rampage for decades. People accept to suffer silently for the fear of their family and wellbeing. They prefer not to give information to security because by doing so, the inconvenience caused by resultant searches by security forces is as good as destruction at the hands of militants. A disturbed Kashmir suits state politicians; it keeps the fund tap running. The separatists are a bigger evil who are involved in money laundering, organise stone pelting, and practically managing every facet of terror industry. They push children of others into deathbed while they themselves enjoy the most luxurious life, with their own children studying/working at safer places in India or abroad. Saeed’s electoral drubbing is going to discourage powers that be to induct militants into any electoral exercise in Kashmir. It is now for Indian state to rally this point to the people of Kashmir and the world as to why the separatists never participate in elections. For, they are likely to meet the same fate in elections as that of Hafiz Saeed and his party. The Pakistan Army and ISI will continue treating Hafiz Saeed, LeT and JuD, as their strategic weapon against India. However, they cannot help Saeed beyond a point in an electoral exercise. They are likely to draw this lesson for their Kashmir strategy and advise their puppets in the state to desist from elections. India now must leverage this opportunity in inviting one and all to take part in the democratic exercise. It can throw the gauntlet to the separatists and leaders of militant organisations to prove their mettle and acceptance to the people of Kashmir. Also, it is for the regional political parties in Kashmir to realise that it is futile to feed and protect separatists living on Indian tax payer’s money but working at cross-purpose. The crowd following them or gathering at their instructions is not the vote bank, but has gathered out of allurement, fear or other compulsions. This is also the right time to expedite investigations by NIA to charge-sheet the separatists, establishing their money trail and being in cahoots to sponsor terrorism in the Valley. The state, currently under Governor’s Rule, may be scheduled for Assembly elections in the following year, possibly alongside the Lok Sabha elections. The Centre’s Kashmir desk must put together a plan to publicise terror’s defeat at the hustings among the state’s polity and political leadership. This will go a long way in discrediting the separatists and those providing political protection to militants.   (Major General S B Asthana, SM, VSM, served multiple tenures in Kashmir. He tweets @asthana_shashi)]]>

What Pakistan Poll Outcome Holds For South Asia

th prime minister in seven decades, besides the military strongmen who have ruled for long years, reinforces this. It is tad unfair to single out Pakistan. Many more nations practising varying forms of democracy, while adhering to democratic processes, have elected right-wing demagogues with dictatorial instincts. Pakistan’s 11th general election has pushed the nation further to the right, with little hope of any far-reaching changes in the lives of the people. Mercifully, the parties and their candidates who represent the forces of pseudo-religious extremism who had muscled into the country’s electoral system have been rejected by the people. Knowingly, but unwisely fostered by the establishment they are, however, unlikely to slow down their campaign for curtailing whatever little freedom is allowed to women and the media. The persecution of minorities could increase. There is no indication that civil society will be allowed to work in peace. Apprehensions arise as Imran Khan for long empathized with these forces to an extent the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) once nominated him to represent them to talk to the government. He supported former military ruler Pervez Musharraf after the latter’s 1999 coup, but fell out later. Musharraf famously called him “Taleban Khan”. And now, exiled Musharraf supports Imran. It was quite open. Fazlur Rehman Khalil, founder of Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM) and a US-designated global terrorist with links to al-Qaeda, formally joined Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI). With poll-day violence, not just the moderates, the mainstream Islamist parties also suffered electorally. Undoubtedly the world’s first cricketing hero-turned-politician to become the prime minister, the Oxford-educated, urbane Imran Khan represents all the contradictions of many foreign-educated third world leaders who must practice conservative politics. They abound in South Asia. But this has been Imran’s USP with Pakistan’s young, the middle classes and the rich, nurtured on a conservative ethos for over four decades that saw two long phases of military rule. He was ideal for the military establishment that co-opted him to oust the three time-premier Nawaz Sharif, its increasingly less pliable one-time protégé. Sharif’s ouster through months of political engineering for which the military establishment also co-opted the judiciary, yet again, and what domestic and international observers have called ‘micro-management’ of the elections helped catapult Khan to the top. This underscores the role the army has come to play of wielding power without grabbing it, through remote control. This is the unanimous verdict of whosoever has watched Pakistan. The establishment has got its man in, but limitations of this management of democratic processes are evident in the fractured popular mandate. Short of majority in the National Assembly, Imran must find allies. Smaller parties may join a coalition but managing it may turn out to be difficult for Imran, the one-man show used to dictating and being idolized. Next, Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) that the establishment black-listed and engineered an exodus from has managed three-scores of seats, albeit a half of Imran’s score. It has emerged at the top in the all-too-critical Punjab province. Whoever forms the Punjab Government, it is not going to be easygoing. The once-powerful and popular Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP), manipulated to keep away from joining forces with Nawaz, has retained its support base in Sindh. The loser in Sindh is the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM), the party of ‘mohajirs’ or migrants from British India. It controlled and even terrorized Karachi, the commercial capital. Split into three and defanged with the ouster of its exiled founder Altaf Hussain, one of its factions may join Imran. MQM’s loss marks the decline of the mohajirs in Pakistan’s life, in political terms if not economic. The entire phalanx of losing parties, alleging large-scale rigging and irregularities, has demanded a re-election. This is a near-impossibility. There were two ‘spoilers’. One was Khan’s ex-wife Reham’s tell-all book leveling serious charges that seemed the work of a journalist and not a gossipy society lady. It was timed for the elections. Khan, well advised by his promoters, decided not to react at all and give currency to the book’s content. The book was ostensibly digested by Pakistan’s netizen that, however, do not go to the polling station. Beyond mud-slinging with the hope that some would stick, the book’s impact is doubtful. A deeply patriarchal society, Pakistan is not Europe or America. The other was a speech by Justice Shaukat Aziz Siddiqui of the Islamabad High Court who created a stir by accusing intelligence agencies, specifically the arm’s ISI, of interfering in affairs of the judiciary. A maverick, he has earned the ire of the establishment. Forget the polite language of the Twitter posting by the Army’s PR chief Asif Ghafoor, it was nothing short of a publicly expressed demand to sack the offending judge. An enraged Chief Justice of Pakistan Mian Saqib Nisar denounced attempts being made “to defame the judiciary” and vowed that ‘justice’ would be dispensed to the rebellious judge. Post-elections, he is heading the bench that is hearing petitions against the rebellious judge. Neither the foreign media, nor the Observers, were amused at the way the polls were conducted. The US State Department concurred with the European Union and the Commonwealth Observers and with the fears expressed by the Human Rights Commissions of Pakistan. As a nation that loves cricket, India would have wanted to welcome Imran. To be fair, he was not anti-India like, say, Javed Miandad. Hence, the only people excited are Imran’s starry-eyed cricket lovers innocent of or unmindful of how his political career has shaped or that the forces that have brought him to power live and thrive on being anti-India. Officially, the reaction was cautious as India does not see prospects of ground reality changing. With Imran expectedly making Kashmir the ‘core’ issue and harping on the UN resolutions, his so called olive branch means little. Only Track-II dialogue may resume at some stage. Any understanding of global affairs says that not talking cannot be a permanent posture in diplomacy. Also, since both countries are nuclear-armed which is a cause for concern to everyone far and near. It is a fact that both the USA that has India as its security ally, and China that is backing Pakistan on just about every issue, are pressing both to talk and let peace have a chance. Regionally, although Pakistan’s ultra-right lost electorally, the genie has been out the bottle for too long. Its growing presence poses a threat to not just Pakistan, but the whole region, especially India with which it has permanently hostile relations and with Afghanistan where its intentions are predatory. As most of these groups are hardcore Sunnis and are avowedly anti-Shia, Iran would have cause to worry. How China that has invested millions with millions more in the pipeline in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) views the new political reality and tackles it would be worth watching. The CPEC is the flagship of its global BRI. Its Pakistan investments can bear fruit only amidst relative peace and stability. Gwadar, the port China has invested heavily in to gain access to the Indian Ocean, cannot function to its optimum capacity as long as Balochistan’s militant groups defying the army. Imran has arrived when geopolitical war has intensified in Asia. India is seen with the US while Pakistan and China are the other group with tacit support of Russia that has moved close to China to prevent the American advances.  After all, America needs Pakistan to let it withdraw honourably from Afghanistan where it is stuck for 17 years with no sign of winning. So, much as Indians may feel important and strong, Pakistan, too, has its uses. There is speculation that Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who had invited leaders of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) to his swearing-in 2014, could bless the new government in Islamabad along with other Saarc players, should such an invite go out from Imran. As both neighbours enter next month the 71st year of their respective independence and the Partition that came with it, will there be a “South Asia Moment”? The writer can be reached at mahendraved07@gmal.com]]>