‘BJP Trying Hard to Carve Space in Kerala But Can’t Overshadow Left’

Nithin J S, a research scholar in University of Kerala, Thiruvanantapuram, dissects the reasons behind rise of right-wing influence in the state. His analysis:

Kerala, owing to its high literacy and a dynamic civil society, is also endowed with a vibrant political life. The boomer generation in Kerala has inculcated politics into their identity, making organisational life an indispensable part of Malayali life.

Kerala is also reminiscent of a classical combination of political forces: A liberal centrist Congress, the Muslim League, Communists and the nationalist Right, as represented by the BJP. However, the electoral contest is polarised between the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).

For almost four decades, this duopoly of LDF and UDF has dominated politics in Kerala who have shared power in turn. The advent of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance has seriously destabilised this age-old political structure.

Although the third player is nowhere near holding power in Kerala, it has deeply entrenched itself. One should see that the Hindutva Right in Kerala already has a developed infrastructure. It holds the highest per capita RSS shakhas in India, even surpassing the so-called Hindu belt.

What is new is the BJP’s electoral growth, which rose to 12 per cent in the previous assembly election. This whooping growth is made possible by the sustained effort to woo the upper caste sections who are historically opposed to LDF. BJP also made successful inroads into OBC groups, a traditional vote bank of the Left, and even among the Christians who no longer feel BJP to be an exclusive Hindu party.

Between the 2019 and the 2024 Indian Parliament elections, for instance, electoral dynamics in the Thrissur Lok Sabha constituency underwent a notable transformation. In 2019, the UDF led with approximately 39% of the vote, followed by the LDF (30%) and the NDA (28%). By 2024, the NDA’s vote share increased to about 37%, while the UDF declined to nearly 30% and the LDF remained relatively stable at around 31%, enabling the victory of NDA candidate Suresh Gopi.

Analysts attribute part of this shift to the movement of a segment of the Christian electorate away from the UDF. Despite criticisms that the BJP has adopted positions perceived as adverse to minorities in other parts of India, in Kerala the party has pursued targeted outreach toward sections of the Christian community. This strategy appears to have contributed to localized electoral gains.

At the state level, the BJP-led NDA’s vote share rose from roughly 15% in 2019 to about 19% in 2024, though it declined to around 14% in the 2025 Kerala local body elections. These patterns indicate uneven growth, stronger in national contests but limited in grassroots governance, while the LDF and UDF continue to dominate local politics. Meanwhile, stiff ideological resistance to the expansion of the BJP and the RSS remains a strong part of Kerala’s Left political movements, which emphasize democratic and secular principles.

When compared to other states, the ruling LDF remains a formidable political force in Kerala. Moreover, the unprecedented two terms it received totally reshaped the public perception of the Left Front. The most noticeable achievement has been in the area of infrastructure development. The highway extension that was abandoned during the previous UDF government was commissioned and brought to its conclusion. LDF clearly showed its intention to upgrade the ‘Kerala Model’ to the next level.

The start-up ecosystem in Kerala achieved tremendous growth in this period. The state considered hostile to business ended up in the first place in the rankings. Public investments in health and education really paid off in terms of popular acceptance.

In addition to its development initiatives, the LDF government has demonstrated notable effectiveness in implementing welfare programs in Kerala. The increase of the welfare pension to ₹2000 and the disbursement of these benefits without arrears, along with the provision of more than five lakh houses through the LIFE Mission, are often cited as significant achievements that highlight the government’s administrative performance.

The government also did commendable work during the crisis times be it the pandemic, flood or landslides in Chooralmala. Overall, it remains a force to be reckoned with. While the BJP is trying hard to carve out a space, it is very unlikely to overshadow what the Left has established. 

As told to Amit Sengupta