How Will Bangladesh’s Political Crisis Impact India?

Last week, after taking over as the Chief Advisor to the interim government of Bangladesh, the Nobel laureate, Muhammad Yunus, 84, made a couple of statements that pertained to India. First, he said that Sheikh Hasina, who was forced to resign as Prime Minister, and flee to India should not be allowed to continue to stay there and that she should seek refuge somewhere else. He implied that her continued stay in India could complicate India’s position in the region.

Yunus also said that it “hurts” when India refers to the protests that culminated in Hasina’s resignation and departure as an internal affair of Bangladesh. He highlighted that the turmoil in Bangladesh is due to the “absence of democracy” and warned that the instability could spill over into neighboring countries. No prizes for guessing what that could mean.

Bangladesh has two neighbours with whom it shares borders. With India Bangladesh shares a very long and complex border. The total length of the India-Bangladesh border is approximately 4,096 kilometers (about 2,545 miles). It is significant for various reasons. It’s the fifth-longest land border in the world; geographically, it wraps around Bangladesh on three sides – west, north, and east; and the border passes through a variety of terrains, including rivers, forests, and densely populated areas, which presents unique challenges for border management and security.

Several Indian states share this border with Bangladesh: West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, and Mizoram.

Indo-Bangladesh Relations So Far

India’s relations with Bangladesh since the country was liberated from Pakistan in 1971 has been multifaceted and complex. 

India has historically hosted a significant number of refugees from Bangladesh, especially during the 1971 Liberation War. However, the issue of Rohingya refugees who fled Myanmar has also been a point of concern, with both countries working together to address the humanitarian crisis. There are other contentious issues between the two countries. India has been raising concerns about illegal immigrants and measures like the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam have been implemented to address this issue.

Yet, the two countries have significant trade between them.  India is Bangladesh’s largest export destination in Asia, with bilateral trade reaching $15.9 billion in the financial year 2022-23. Key exports from India include cotton, motor vehicles, and electronic equipment, while Bangladesh exports cereals, raw hides, and textiles.

India has extended significant financial assistance to Bangladesh, including an $8 billion line of credit for infrastructure development. Projects include the development of ports, railways, and road connectivity. Indian companies have invested in various sectors in Bangladesh, including power, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and IT. The investment climate has been favourable under Sheikh Hasina’s government, which actively encouraged foreign investment.

India and Bangladesh have strengthened their defence cooperation, focusing on areas like maritime security, counter-terrorism, and joint military exercises¹. Agreements have been signed to enhance cooperation in these areas.

Both countries have worked together to address security concerns, including cross-border terrorism and insurgency. Sheikh Hasina’s government took significant steps to curb anti-India activities from Bangladeshi soil.

India and the Geopolitics of South Asia

India with its massive population, economic size, and military power, is clearly the big brother in the region. And, just as the US and the Western block looks at India as a strategic ally and a counterfoil to China’s growing power in the world, India has sought to ally with its smaller neigbours to strengthen its own position. Bangladesh has been a key component of that strategy.

Sheikh Hasina was in power for a long time: first, from June 1996 to July 2001, and again from January 2009 to August 2024. Her party, the Awami League, was at the forefront of Bangladesh’s liberation movement led by her father Mujibur Rahman, and after his assassination and years of turmoil, Hasina was credited with restoring democracy and secularism in the country. Yet, in the second inning of Hasina’s reign, her regime became autocratic and authoritarian. Her political opponents were suppressed, imprisoned or even killed, and the general public grew increasingly restive. 

Her dramatic and sudden departure were a result of the escalation of what started out as student protests.  These began after a controversial court ruling reinstated a quota system for government jobs, which many saw as unfair and discriminatory. The situation escalated when Hasina’s government responded with a violent crackdown, leading to numerous deaths and widespread unrest.

The protests, led primarily by students and young people, were fueled by long-standing grievances over unemployment and government corruption. The government’s heavy-handed response, including the use of tear gas, live bullets, and the deployment of the Rapid Action Battalion, only intensified the unrest. The situation became untenable, leading to Hasina’s eventual resignation and her fleeing the country.

Impact of Hasina’s Ouster & Conspiracy Theories

Besides the cordial relations between the two countries, since 2014, Sheikh Hasina enjoyed a good rapport with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In fact, one view, fairly popular Delhi’s power corridors, is that the student uprising may have had the backing of Pakistan’s biggest intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), and the Awami League’s arch rival, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which historically has had alliance with the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), an Islamist party, and is seen as pro-Pakistan.

Some Indian media outlets have lapped up this sort of a conspiracy theory and also alleged a possible Chinese role behind the scenes.

The fact is that although under Hasina Bangladesh, once considered a basket case, prospered economically, and most notably emerged as a global leader in garment exports, youth unemployment has been a serious problem. The percentage of youth between 15 and 24 seeking jobs unsuccessfully has been nearly 16% and the crisis has been marked particularly among educated youth. The student uprising was likely triggered because of this.

Hasina’s exit and the political uncertainty will impact India’s relations with Bangladesh. The new interim government may have different priorities and policies, potentially impacting ongoing projects and cooperation. Economic ties might face challenges if the new government does not maintain the same level of engagement and support for Indian investments. Trade relations could also be affected if there are changes in trade policies or tariffs.

Defence and security cooperation might be reassessed, especially if the new government seeks to balance relations with other regional powers like China and Pakistan. The handling of illegal immigration and refugee issues could also see changes depending on the new government’s stance and policies.

Some factors that might affect the relations include the fact that Mohammad Yunus, a respected name in microfinance, banking and economics, has little experience in hands-on high-level politics. Bangladesh has had a history of the army staging coups and playing a decisive role in the government. 

India will obviously be watching closely to see how the situation evolves in Bangladesh. How soon will Bangladesh be able to hold elections that are fair and free? Now that the BNP’s leader, Khaleda Zia, 78, who was under house arrest during Hasina’s regime, has been released, will she and her son, Tarique Rahman who was exiled in the UK make a bid for power? Perceived as pro-Pakistan and Islamist, a comeback of the BNP could adversely affect India’s strategy in the region.

Reacting to Yunus’s statements after he took charge, India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has reiterated that the situation in Bangladesh is considered an internal matter. However, India has also emphasised the importance of stability and democratic processes in the region and has maintained that India’s primary focus is on ensuring the safety of its citizens in Bangladesh and supporting a peaceful resolution to the crisis. Additionally, India has expressed its willingness to engage in dialogue with the interim government to foster stability and cooperation.

Like much of India’s foreign policies, its strategy in the region will be to address its own interests in ensuring stability in the region while also respecting Bangladesh’s sovereignty–a balancing act that will require tact. 

For more details visit us: https://lokmarg.com/