‘INDIA Bloc is Old UPA in a New Package, Won’t Hurt BJP Prospects’

Prof. Amit Upadhyay, who teaches Political Science in Deen Dayal Upadhyay University, points out that the new opposition alliance is rife with internal political differences. His views:

The abbreviation of the re-packaged new opposition front, INDIA (an acronym for Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance), might generate some emotional and psychological attachment for the nation and a feeling of love and affection for India, but it will not, by any stretch of imagination, be sufficient to replace PM Narendra Modi and emerge as a replacement for the NDA. However, some improvement in the vote share of its constituents is very much possible.

First, INDIA is yet to finalise a face that could be at par or prove to be a better replacement for the charismatic personality of Modi. Second, there is a visible acceptance in INDIA bloc that if they fought the BJP individually, they will not be able to give any kind of resistance. But coming together will help them in putting up a decent and challenging fight. This in itself proves their secondary position.

Contesting Lok Sabha elections is altogether a different fight and needs a totally different strategy. Thus, a coalition like this will enable the participating parties to pool in resources as parliamentary constituencies in India often involve multiple candidates, splitting votes three or even four ways. As a result, parties win elections even if they secure less than 50% of the votes cast.

For example, the figures of 2019 General Elections showed that BJP had about 37% of the total vote while non-BJP parties accounted for 63%. So, if they could consolidate a chunk of this through one-on-one contests, then the opposition vote will not get divided and that should be the heart of their strategy to take on Modi who, till date, appears to be taking the office for the third consecutive tenure.

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The Congress appears to be in a survival mode rather than leading the front because of the turn of events taking place in some states. Like in Uttar Pradesh, Samajwadi Party is playing on front foot and appears to be in no mood to yield any ground to the Congress in the state.

If we talk about the Congress supporting Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal on the Delhi Services Bill, its own leaders are not having a consensus on the issue. As far as Delhi and other states like Punjab are concerned (where AAP is in power) the Congress knows that it will come to power (in the Centre) in future and that is the reason that its support to AAP is very selective and minimal.

Meanwhile in Bihar, Congress has no standing as the collaboration of CM Nitish Kumar and Deputy CM Tejaswi Yadav (JDU and RJD) is strong enough to give a decisive fight to BJP and hence the Congress is nowhere in the scene. One thing is clear that the new front and the name will succeed in giving a visible challenge to the BJP and the NDA but that will not be enough to stop Modi in coming to power for the third consecutive time.

As told to Rajat Rai

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