‘Nitish Is Unlikely To Remain Bihar CM; PK, Owaisi Are Irrelevant’
Anup Srivastava, a political observer from Patna, says even if the NDA returns to power in Bihar, Nitish may not find himself at the helm. His views:
Beginning with the ruling NDA alliance, it is clearly visible for the past couple of years that CM Nitish Kumar is lagging on two fronts – his age-related issues and the voices of discontent in his own party, the BJP and other alliance partners. However, the hard fact remains that BJP cannot win the elections and form the government on its own. Hence, a `substantial’ partner like JD(U) is a necessity for the BJP along with other smaller associates.
In the last 2020 Vidhan Sabha elections, the main opposition party RJD won 75 seats, followed by the BJP with 74, JD(U) 43, the Congress were at 19 followed by others. It was indeed a neck and neck fight last time as the RJD under Tejashwi Yadav offered good resistance and gave the NDA a run for their money.
Like last time, this time also, the LJP(R), led by cabinet minister Chirag Paswan, is the most difficult partner for the NDA to handle as new permutations and combinations regarding seat sharing formula with Chirag are making news on a daily basis. In 2020, Chirag contested on 135 seats and although his party did not win a single seat, it secured over 23 Lakh votes, substantially damaging JD(U) and bringing down its tally by over 20 seats.
Other NDA partners like Upendra Kushwaha (RLM) and Jitan Ram Manhji (HAM) have no visible or vocal grudges regarding the number of seats they are offered and till date, and remain a confidant of the alliance.
The ongoing complications going on between the RJD and the Congress are visible as they have not reached any acceptable, clear-cut seat-sharing formula till now. It also appears that the Congress is not been offered a `respectable’ share of seats as it is also evident from the fact that while other partners of the UPA have agreed on Tejashwi’s name as the CM candidate of UPA, Congress is still maintaining that talks will be held after the result.
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The Congress contested on 70 seats in the last elections and won 19; this year it has declared its first list of 13 candidates. The RJD is in the final phase of discussions and its list can be declared anytime in the coming days as nominations have begun in Bihar.
Talking about Prashant Kishore (PK) it would not at all be exorbitant to say that he just wants to replicate the Kejriwal model in Bihar as it is quite visible from his practices and choice of people getting associated with him. Just have a look at the list of 51 candidates that JSP has declared till now – two retired IPS and IAS, lawyers, doctors, businessmen, teachers, white collar professionals, etc. However, he has also tried to balance his outreach by substantially giving tickets to Panchayat level and rural level functionaries. However, his dramatics and the `visions’ he is catering to the people of Bihar by labeling them as fresh and revolutionary, might not make any visible changes in the results of the Vidhan Sabha.
Meanwhile AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi has plans to expand his party’s presence in Bihar and will be contesting on more seats in Seemanchal and additional seats in the Mithilanchal region of Bihar which has a substantial Muslim vote bank. At present Owaisi, who has unsuccessfully knocked the doors of the UPA for an alliance and officially demanded 6 seats, appears to be all set to go alone this time also on more seats that 2020. In the last elections, AIMIM contested on 24 seats and won 5. However, 4 of his MLAs defected to RJD.
Whatever be the results, Bihar is all set to present its new bowl of curry to the political platter in the largest democracy of the world. It will also provide fodder for the political pundits about caste and regional politics to discuss at length till the next Lok Sabha elections kick in!
As told to Rajat Rai
