A Lantern in Stark Daylight

“Have you ever heard of the madman who on a bright morning lighted a lantern and ran to the market-place calling out unceasingly: “I seek God! I seek God!” …”Where is God gone?” he called out. “I mean to tell you! We have killed him,—you and I! We are all his murderers!
Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche, The Gay Science 

Is the war over?

Can wars ever be over?

Will they ever stop killing children and mothers?

With a terrible economic crisis stalking the world, and the gulf economy in shambles, is this mindless war Donald Trump was trapped into by Israel and his ‘crusading aides’ – finally over? 

Like the fake ceasefire and bombings in Gaza, will it go on and on, with Iran refusing to bend or crawl?

With a beleaguered Trump shifting ground on the war, first he said it will be only for four to five weeks, then, five/10 days of no attacks on power plants, after Iran said it will do a tit for tat in its already devastated neighbourhood of stooge regimes.

Then, “we have won the war” – game over. And, finally, the White House spokesperson, Karoline Leavitt, said in a kind of Hegelian dialectic turned upside down, that Iran should realise that they have lost the war. 

According to a Reuters report, she said, President Trump does not bluff and he is prepared to unleash hell. “Iran should not miscalculate again,” Leavitt told reporters in a press briefing. “If Iran fails ⁠to accept the reality of the current moment, if they fail to understand that they have been defeated militarily, and will continue to be, President Trump will ensure they are hit harder than they have ever been hit before,” she said.

The report stated: Iran is still reviewing a US ⁠proposal ⁠to end the war, despite an initial response that was negative, a senior Iranian official told Reuters, indicating that Tehran had so far stopped short of rejecting it outright. Talks with Iran were still under way, Leavitt said. “Talks continue. They are productive, as the president said on Monday, and they continue to be,” she added.

Talks were on before the war as well, with Oman as moderator, with Iran agreeing to the most difficult demands: no nuclear enrichment, inspection by IAEA, while US sanctions should end. Every impartial observer in the American establishment has categorically stated that there was “no imminent threat” from Iran, including Joe Kent, who recently quit as the head of the US National Counterterrorism Centre. “I cannot in good conscience support the on-going war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby,” he announced in a social media media.

The latest flip-flop is Trump is saying he is ready to end the war, and it does not matter if the Strait of Hormuz is open or shut.

Trump said in a Tweet, and he has been repeating this: The Iranian Air Force is gone. The Navy is gone. Many ships SUNK. Total OBLITERATION.

So, pray, how come US stealth aircrafts, worth billions (one shot in Saudi Arabia, experts say, will cost $700 million now), its war carriers, its military bases in the Gulf, have been destroyed? How come all airports are shut and millions stranded, including Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv? So how many oil tankers and other installations of the Gulf nations have been blown up?

How is Tel Aviv so ravaged, and also Haifa, with its nuclear installations apparently hit, and scores of its generals eliminated? One report said that the Israel army chief has said that his force is totally demoralised and weakened – that it’s just not possible to carry on. Besides, when the US is sending troops on the ground (“to die for Israel”, as is the folklore in America), why is Israel refusing to put their own troops on the ground?

Surely, with troops on the ground, the US should remember Vietnam – the two-decade war they waged against a small, poor country, so far away. The mighty US lost.

Thousands of marines, having murdered ordinary folks without impunity, as in the My Lai massacre, were trapped forever in a post-traumatic stress disorder. For an elementary lesson, Trump and Pete Hegseth should watch Coppola’s Apocalpse Now, orOliver Stone’s Platoon.

Now, if the US has won the war and if that is so, the war has indeed seen its gory end, and Iran has been decimated. Is it so?

In the last and recent 12-day war, with, again, the Israelis as the sinister plotter, Trump claimed to have bombed the hell out of the Iran nuclear reactors, after an uprising which the MOSSAD tried to manipulate. It got exposed, and eliminated thereby, while this authentic restless movement against economic hardships was compelled to fizzle out.

Come to think of it, it’s a strategy they have applied umpteen times and exactly what they are trying out in Cuba now, with no success. Sometimes they succeed, at other times they fail miserably – and it’s funny that their crusaders do not even choose to change this squeezed- out strategy.

First, prolonged, endless, terrible sanctions for decades, crippling the economy, creating mass suffering and social unrest, propelling thereby civil society protests; then arrange the diabolical entry of MOSSAD and CIA, entrenched in ‘enemy’ countries.

Soon after, starts an orchestrated media campaign — of how democracy is being restored. In Iraq it was the mythical WMDs, and in Iran it is pro-democracy ‘regime change’.

The women’s freedom card failed, with the war starting with a trademark Israeli signal: 170 school children murdered by a Tomahawk missile fired from a naval destroyer.

(The two navy officers who did it have been identified, like the IDF officers who pumped 355 bullets into six-year-old Hind Rijab’s body, trapped in a car with dead relatives in Gaza.)

Besides, if they had bombed the hell out of all the nuclear reactors in the 12-day war, what was the ‘imminent threat’ this time?

Epstein Files?

The everyday sleazy revelations of a grotesque Paedophile Establishment? With Epstein operating as a confirmed Mossad agent!

Or, was it because after getting away with yet another genocide in occupied Palestine, the “war criminal” in Tel Aviv, an international pariah, and his fanatic extreme-right cabinet, now aimed to go for its most favourite civilizational project: Greater Israel, with a ‘regime change’ in the only country in the Middle East which has refused to succumb. All they wanted is another stooge regime in Tehran.

Hence, Trump was trapped, with his Zionist son-in-law, a real estate businessman, playing the negotiator/strategist, and another Zionist white supremacist, with a crusader’s cross tattooed on his chest (Trump’s secretary of war) — pumping for war.

As if war is a mindless video game.

The fact is as long as the ‘Axis of Evil’ is around, forcible occupation, full-scale banditry, mass murders of innocents, targeted killing of school children, military or ‘peaceful coups’, assassinations of elected leaders, among other total violations of international law will continue.

The latest is the abduction of a president and his wife, in the middle of the night, from their bedroom. For this evil Axis, this has been done ad infinitum, this was normal before, and this is post-normal now, like ‘Truth Social’ — Trump’s aptly named Twitter handle.

However, the truth is that with 8 million people marching against him across America last week and his approval ratings abysmally low, a trapped Trump wants to desperately wriggle out of this war in which he and Bibi have been decisively decimated.

If anything, it has shown the world, yet again, what an Iranian propaganda video is now showing, going viral: From Vietnam to Iran and Cuba, from Nelson Mandela to Hind Rijab, from Hitler to Mussolini – when your time is up, you don’t have to hold a lantern in bright daylight to see it.

Like Neitzsche’s mad man — with a lantern in the middle of a market place, in stark daylight.

Iran War, Hubris or Rise of Pax America

As United States and Israel bombard Iran mercilessly, assassinating some of its top leadership, hoping a compliant regime change that will give up nuclear technology, there could be a few outcomes, some unexpected and some hoped for. For the United States this could be an opportunity to resurrect Pax America, often being relegated to history books after 9/11 and the Middle East wars. For Israel, this could offer the scope to negotiate with its neighbours from a position of considerable strength. And for Iran, the future could be better economic stability, a less oppressive leadership and better integration in the modern world.

But it could also go the other way with United States facing further hubris, rebellions in the Gulf monarchies and equivalent of the worst period of Iraq magnified all over Middle East. What happens in Iran could also determine the future trajectory of China and Russia.

The United States has faced formidable challengers in the last two decades that have grown bigger.. It was distracted after 9/11 with wars that it lost. That gave opportunity for other powers to rise. Both China and Russia are almost equals of USA now wither in might or economically. They have been expanding their network of ‘friendly’ countries around the world, especially those that don’t seem to get on with the United States or are dictatorships themselves and have found company in the China-Russia axis.  

Since taking power, Trump’s America appears however to be weakening China and Russia by prizing away its ‘friendly’ circle of friends and draw them into the US orbit. Syria was almost gifted to Trump during the twilight period of American political change between winning election in November and taking over power in January. Assad of Syria was indebted to Russia and was solidly in its camp. But the rebellion he was trying to put down overthrew him with the help of Saudis and USA. Then Israel hammered Hammas and Hezbollah, weakening Iran. Iran has been a solid pillar in the China Russia camp.

The USA bombarded Islamic groups in Nigeria, obliging the Nigerian government to become partners. It also attacked Islamic State operatives in Somalia drawing the Somali government closer into its influence. Between March and May 2025, it attacked the Houthis of Yemen. The bombing wasn’t all that successful but it was clear that Saudi Arabia was in further debt to USA.

The most spectacular military operation was the clinical extraction of Venezuela’s dictator Maduro and his wife from their ‘palace’. Without a large scale attack on the Venezuelan dictatorship Trump secured Venezuela with this decapitation. Venezuela’s oil is now at the disposal of USA instead of China which was importing around 5% of its crude oil from Venezuela. China has shifted supply chains

Iran’s supply of oil to China is more significant. China imports about 12% its crude oil from Iran. This is a significant amount for a country dependent on oil imports for its otherwise export driven economy that need energy for manufacturing.

Gradually, the USA appears to be strangling China’s economic bloodline. It appears not only to be shrinking the China-Russia axis but exposing both countries as impotent partners when one of their medium sized friends faces threats from the USA.

Countries around the world will think carefully before jumping into the China-Russia camp now. Iran along with North Korea, have perhaps been the most lanyard wearing members of this axis. So was Syria. Syria’s president Assad got sanctuary in Russia but little more. Neither China nor Russia seems to have assisted Iran much in facing the inevitable show down with USA.

Iran supplied Russia with drones for its war against Ukraine. There are Russians working in Iran’s nuclear program. But there is no evidence of any powerful Russian missiles or defence systems capable of outsmarting American missiles yet evident on Iran’s soil.  

China too appears to be sitting on the sidelines, perhaps resigned to lose another international partner. This will affect its relationships with quite a few countries as they see China’s unwillingness to get involved. The United States has made threatening noises at South Africa and is not too happy with Lula of Brazil either. Both countries are in the BRICS camp.

America’s next target is likely to be Cuba, thus truncating one of Russia’s longest asset in South America and that gets up America’s nose. Cuba has survived sanctions and the notorious standoff between Soviet’s Khruschev and America’s Kennedy, an episode that tested nuclear brinkmanship to the last minute before the Soviet backed off. Soon after the Soviet also collapsed but more due to the disastrous war in Afghanistan than this single episode. However the episode did bring a truth home to many countries, that in a ‘who blinks first’, America is the winner.

If Iran capitulates within the next couple of weeks, the USA will be back on course to regain this century, or at least the next few decades as Pax America. It has pushed away Europe and Europe’s obsession with Russia. It does not rely on Britain being its junior partner. Robin to Batman now is Israel. Israel has few scruples as has been evident in the war against Hammas and mass scale killings of Palestinians. The United States under Trump is now weary of the very foundations of world order that the United States created after World War II. It has been the architect of rules based order and human rights principles formed an ideological framework to keep order. The creator is now destroying its creation as it doesn’t  suit its ambition to remain top dog.

Politics however is not an exact science and predictions are usually risqué. Tables could turn. Both America and the Iranian clerics are driven forces. They are driven by ambitious ideologies for which they are willing to take immense risks and destruction.

The Iranians must have game planned many scenarios of attacks by the US-Israel coalition.  It may have planned for wipeout and then come back as the Taliban did. Ideology is a strong motivator. Maduro’s Venezuela and the Iran of Shia Clerics are worlds apart. The Venezuelan regime was simply hungry for power and the high life. The Iranians are in power to do God’s work as they understand it.

Iran is also one of the most intelligent and advanced countries embracing modern science in the Islamic world. It has creatively interpreted Islam to justify scientific progress. Its image problems are due to human rights violations.

By attacking the Gulf monarchies, Iran is deliberately or unwittingly opening the doors to organisations like Al Qaeda to achieve their ambition of removing American bases or ‘infidels’ from the holy land as they see it. For Al Qaeda and ISIS this is a poisoned chalice. They depend on patronage from the powerful in these countries. They hate the Shia, calling them worse evil than America and they are now being helped in their mission by that same ‘devil’. If they start moving towards weakened monarchies, all hell could break loose in the Middle East. That more than Iran surviving the American onslaught is the greatest danger to world economy and stability now. If it happens, Pax America will certainly find refuge in history books while China’s patience will pay off.

There are many unexpected turns in wars, once started. Iraq was a classic case in our times. The resilience of the Pushtun dominated Taliban has been another one that has defied odds. It is too soon to make predictions about outcomes from Iran. The best the world can hope is that President Trump will throw an olive branch to the Iranian regime, accept some nuclear programme and begin talks to ease sanctions. This will guarantee peace for some time, keep the Gulf states intact and avoid a worst nightmare than what followed Bush’s ‘victory’ over Iraq.