Trump And The New World Order
Around the world, countries, small and large, are recalibrating their approach to international relations and perhaps most importantly to the United States of America. The Zelensky-Trump meeting which descended into confrontation and Zelensky was almost marched out of the White House has entertained but also got politicians and diplomats wondering what next. Europeans are berating somewhat loudly that the ‘rule-based’ world order is dead or dying and that the Trans-Atlantic treaty is breaking apart. They are scuttling around in a huddle to see what remains of the order and how it can be saved.
The real question might be was there really a ‘rule-based order’ or a hegemony that Trump sees as past its date. When power shifts, it can get violent as the Europeans seem to prefer or as Trump seems to want, it can be transitioned without wars.
Much is being said about Trump’s personality and style of rule or rather lack of ‘rules’. What seems to be happening is that Trump may be as much navigating a new order of international relations and global politics as everyone else. Being President of the most powerful country, he is aware that he is helping to set the mode of direction. Trump appears to have realised that staying on the so called ‘rule based’ order is a route to economic decline, unnecessary financial burden to feed a fantasy and further loss of power on the world stage.
The emerging world order in fact started nearly two decades or so ago. The Occident may just not have grasped it, smug in the belief that its dominance in international institutions can continue to ensure hegemony. It is Europe that is still catching up and lashing about.
So, what exactly was the ‘rule-based’ world order? It was a world order instituted by the victors of World War II. It was mostly Britain, France and United States. Russia got a bit of say and China the least. Countries like India were still under colonialism.
International institutions were developed on the lines of Occident’s liberal democracy. Financial institutions, such as World Bank and IMF were set up to help development around the world in favour of the Occident.
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The world was redrawn with new borders especially in the colonised world. In Europe too, the defeated were forced to accept new boundaries. Much of the colonised world was divided into administrative units without much regard to ethnic, cultural or sometimes even linguistic and natural habitats of communities. The Occident told the world, ‘this is it now’, we made you the boundaries and you stay as it is. The idea was based on Westphalian system and was neocolonialism manged remotely.
Sovereignty became the new idiom of international order. Organisations such as the United Nations were set on a path to promote liberal democracy and individual rights and sustain the boundaries unless the Occident said otherwise. The gurus or rather gods of this post-war order were Europeans, essentially the British and the French, with the USA pushed to the front to spend most of the money and the forces. The Occident benefited by predictable markets and investment opportunities. The USA was flattered and told it is Pax Americana. The USA benefitted the most financially.
Human Beings have been playing God from time immemorial to create the perfect order and peace. This is another experiment titled ‘rule-based’ order, whatever that means. There were and remain many flaws. Many decolonised countries are not natural borders, either geographically or culturally. They have largely been the result of the administrative convenience of the colonial power and generally configured around the largest or majority tribe.
Post-colonial order hasn’t been peaceful. Each country has tried to forge a ‘nation’ along the European idea of the ideal nation state. Countries seek identity based on language, ideology, culture etc. Perhaps the two most tragic examples are India and Pakistan that are still desperate to have an ‘identity’. Their internal unity is guaranteed by the use of the armed forces against their own people and continuation of colonial repressive laws.
But it is the larger world stage where hegemony was instituted with force. Almost all ancient mythologies around gods are based on the narrative that rules are for mere mortals but when they don’t suit the gods, they rise above them and do what they want. This has been evident since the ‘rule based’ world order started. Coups have taken place where a country tries to escape the orbit. ‘Revolutions’ have been instigated. And the ‘gods’ have broken the very principle of sovereignty a few times by finding excuses to invade countries that they claimed were usurping the ‘rule-based’ order.
The USA largely paid for this with increasing debt, increasing body count and a faltering respect around the world. Much of the world saw US as the bully. While it was triumphant in the beginning, it met challenges in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia and a few places in South America. The USA-led Occident saw the counter narrative of Soviet Communism out, but it couldn’t quite engage confrontationally with a non-adversarial China.
China, like India, has been very smart. Much smarter than India. It has avoided any direct confrontations with small and big countries. It has pushed the boundaries of sovereignties and controversially claimed sea and Islands. It is now confronting the Occident’s ‘rule-based order’ of sovereign countries by actively pursuing a policy of trying to swallow Taiwan. China has invested widely and helped many countries around the world to raise their GDP, industry and education though direct loans and investments rather than installing pro-China regimes through coups. While the West was busy fighting bloody wars, China has increased its support around the world, its economy has become second to USA and it hasn’t really lost men in wars except in some skirmishes with India. Under China’s quiet rise a number of other countries have started to move away from the so called Occidental world order. A new currency system is beginning to compete with the dollar, led by BRICS.
It seems Trump and his advisors have understood the world has changed. Trump also realises that the old way of maintaining hegemony through imposing a so called ‘rule-based’ order isn’t getting anywhere. There have been three wars in the last twenty years. The USA has come out worse in them. There was Iraq, there was Afghanistan and now there is Ukraine.
Trump is realigning the USA to the emerging real world balance of power. There are new giants now. Boundaries are going to be redrawn as they do every few decades or centuries. Europe is clinging on to a period of hegemony that is whittling away under their feet. Ukraine is part of the waning history of the Occidental order.
Trump’s message to Europe is clear. The world is changing and will exact ever increasing financial layout and human sacrifice for those trying to sustain the Occidental hegemonic order. Trump’s America isn’t interested in maintaining something that will eventually give way. He is saying to Europe, if you want to continue with your dream, you pay for it and you send your armies, we are no longer going to be used for your indulgences.
It is that simple. There is nothing more mysterious or unpredictable to him. It only appears unpredictable because America under him is no longer following the post-war script written and crafted by Europeans. Europeans have been left standing with their ‘rule-based’ hegemony in tatters. Ukraine that put itself as the last frontier was in a way the last stand of Pax Occidentadalis. Sensing change the USA has dumped the ‘rule-based’ order, distanced itself and is seeking new lands to expand into. Whether the transition is peaceful or violent depends on Europe – in disarray currently – and its willingness to let go of its ideological hegemony.
