‘It Will Be An Uphill Task For Akhilesh To Dislodge Yogi In UP’
Abhishek Agnihotri, a research scholar in Political Science at Lucknow University, says prevailing public perception suggests that Yogi Adityanath will remain in power. His views:
One thing is crystal clear: over the past nine years, the people of Uttar Pradesh have become accustomed to living in a relatively peaceful and orderly environment, something many voters felt was difficult to imagine during the tenures of both Akhilesh Yadav and his father, Mulayam Singh Yadav. Although the law-and-order situation under Mayawati was also considered satisfactory by many observers, the BSP today is largely left without a strong political base in the state.
At present, the Samajwadi Party has successfully positioned itself as the principal opposition force and the main challenger to the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. In doing so, it has absorbed a significant portion of the anti-incumbency sentiment. However, the party’s traditional MY (Muslim-Yadav) vote bank, while remaining its core strength, may not be sufficient to defeat the BJP. To emerge victorious, the SP faces the challenge of expanding its support among non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits, many of whom have shifted towards the NDA in recent years.
Akhilesh Yadav has actively worked towards building performance-based seat-sharing arrangements with other opposition parties. However, the Congress, which remains the SP’s principal long-term ally, has witnessed a steep decline in its support base since the rise of regional parties such as the SP and BSP, and the subsequent dominance of the BJP. The SP suffered a major setback in the 2017 Assembly elections when it shared a substantial number of seats with the Congress, and the results in the 2022 elections were not significantly different.
Looking at the recent statements and the relatively subdued political posture of Akhilesh Yadav and other SP leaders, it appears unlikely that the Congress will receive either substantial support or a generous share of seats in the forthcoming elections. Furthermore, given the Congress’s recent performances in states such as West Bengal and Assam—where it once enjoyed considerable influence—the prospects for any significant revival, either in terms of vote share or bargaining power within an alliance, appear limited.
As far as the BJP is concerned, there appears to be little possibility of a major electoral setback in Uttar Pradesh, particularly after the outcomes in West Bengal and Assam, where its traditional support base further consolidated. The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) process undertaken by the Election Commission also played an important role in these states. According to many political observers, the exercise led to the removal of a section of voters alleged to be illegal immigrants, a segment that was perceived to be more supportive of opposition parties. A similar exercise has already been conducted in Uttar Pradesh with relatively little controversy, and its political impact may become evident during the elections.
Finally, the ruling BJP, led by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, has built a formidable electoral machine by combining visible infrastructure development with a strong Hindu identity-based narrative. This political formula has so far proved cohesive and resilient, making it difficult for the opposition to effectively challenge at present.
As told to Rajat Rai
