Turkey’s Twin Game Plan In Syria

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not hide his delight at the rapid trends in Syria, his neighbor, under the shadow of Istanbul’s minarets. Erdogan proclaimed a “new reality” in Syria and underlined that “Syria belongs to Syrians with all its ethnic, confessional, and spiritual elements” in remarks to reporters following prayers.

This declaration no longer solely marked a diplomatic turnaround however additionally underlined Turkey’s multifaceted function in the Syrian struggle — a position described with the aid of its assistance for opposition forces and simultaneous engagement with NATO and Russia.

Syria has been a battlefield where many international pastimes have collided for more than ten years, with Turkey playing a crucial role. Ankara has long supported Syrian opposition corporations searching to overthrow the Russian and Iranian-backed regime of Bashar al-Assad.

This help was once a section of Turkey’s broader intention to affect the effect of the Syrian struggle in the desire of authorities that ought to ensure the protection of its borders and forestall autonomy for Kurdish groups.

However, Turkey’s involvement is difficult by using its role as a NATO member, regularly inserting it at odds with Assad’s different key ally, Russia. Despite this, Erdogan has managed to preserve members of the family with Moscow and navigate the complicated geopolitical panorama with a method that on occasion aligns with Russian pastimes and every so often goes towards them.

Initially, Turkey’s approach towards Syria centered on stopping Kurdish forces from organizing a contiguous territory alongside its border. This difficulty for the Kurdish militia Yekineyen Parastina Gel (YPG), which Turkey considers a terrorist team linked to the PKK or the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, has been a used aspect at the back of its army interventions in northern Syria.

The scenario escalated with the latest speedy rebellion successes in key Syrian cities such as Aleppo and Hama, which show up to have been carried out with at least tacit Turkish approval.

Erdogan has many times referred to as on Assad to negotiate, however, these overtures have been rejected. Erdogan also recalled that he had invited Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to talk quite a few instances to “determine the future of Syria together”. However, Assad did now not reply favorably to such a meeting.

Turkish overseas minister Hakan Fidan visited Damascus twice, and talent chief Ibrahim Kalin held several rounds of negotiations with his Syrian counterpart with the assistance of Chinese and Russian mediation efforts. Shortly after China settled Saudi Arabia and Iran, the dates for Assad’s go to Ankara had been additionally set. Assad, however, conceded and stipulated that the Turkish military must first leave Syrian territory.

This angered Russia, which used to be searching for an honorable withdrawal from Syria to pay attention to Ukraine, as properly as China. When Hezbollah vacated its positions close to Idlib on November 15, they had been taken through US-backed Kurdish companies adversarial to Turkey. This precipitated Turkey to order Syrian opposition companies to expel the Kurdish forces from these positions. Turkey supplied air aid for this operation.

When they superior and occupied the positions previously held via Hezbollah and now held by way of Kurdish agencies on November 27, they were amazed to meet no resistance. The Syrian military had disbanded after the withdrawal of Hezbollah, comparable to the Afghan troops underneath Ashraf Ghani when the US ceased its air support.

Erdogan’s capability to stabilize Turkey’s members of the family with each NATO and Russia is a hallmark of his overseas policy. By keeping open channels with each bloc, he has located Turkey as a crucial mediator on numerous worldwide issues, which include the Syrian conflict.

This balancing act was once especially evident when Turkey performed a central position in facilitating the Ukrainian Grain Corridor agreement, which served NATO’s hobbies whilst preserving the Bosphorus sea open to Russian ships, appeasing Moscow.

The position of Turkish talent in monitoring and facilitating operations in Syria was once crucial. As mentioned in the Hurriyet newspaper, Turkey under the management of Ibrahim Kalin and the National Intelligence Organisation, has meticulously organized several actions in Syria via diplomatic and brain efforts. This coaching consists of strategically deploying belongings on the floor to make sure Ankara is continually one step beforehand in the creating situation.

Omer Ozkizilcik, a Non-Resident Fellow for the Syria Project at the Atlantic Council, emphasized Turkey’s strategic position: “Even although Turkey was once no longer at once involved, its inexperienced mild for the offensive used to be based totally on its core pursuits in Syria. As a result, Turkey has now placed itself as the most influential overseas actor in the country.” This effect is a direct result of Turkey’s energetic engagement and strategic foresight in managing its involvement in Syria.

President Erdogan’s latest statements and movements in Syria replicate a state-of-the-art method aimed at maximizing Turkey’s impact on the consequence of the struggle whilst balancing its worldwide relations.

The frontlines of the Syrian civil warfare remained generally unchanged given that 2020, despite occasional fierce skirmishes. For the previous 4 years, President Assad has had a lot of the country, such as primary cities, below his control.

In the meantime, an alliance of broadly speaking Islamist rebels led using Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and tolerated using Turkey had constrained itself to an enclave in Idlib and components of the rural areas west of Aleppo. In addition, Turkish forces and Turkish-backed militias managed a phase of the former Kurdish territory alongside the border to the north of Aleppo. In north-east Syria, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), allies of the US in the combat in opposition to the jihadist team Islamic State, have been working mostly independently.

The current offensive has modified this state of affairs considerably, even if its outcomes are hard to predict. The twin method of navy help for the opposition and diplomatic engagement with world powers has put Turkey in a special role in navigating the complicated geopolitical panorama of the Middle East.

Turkey hosts 3.5 million Syrian refugees. Currently, Turkey is in the midst of a financial disaster and rising inflation suggests no signs and symptoms of abating. The Turkish forex is presently depreciating swiftly in opposition to the dollar. Food inflation is at its highest, which is placing stress on the population. The return of Syrian refugees may want to provide Erdogan with an increase and enable him to get the financial system back on track.

However, the worldwide neighborhood continues to screen the state of affairs in Syria closely, as it is aware that Turkey’s movements will considerably affect the region’s future balance and direction. The key query remains: will Damascus descend into chaos like Baghdad after the fall of Saddam Hussein or will there be a peaceable transition of power?

(The writer is a technocrat, political analyst, and author. He covers national, geopolitical, and social issues. The views expressed are his own. His social media handle is @prosenjitnth)