Within hours of a ceasefire, Israel broke it and Trump recreated the wording of the agreement reached on 7th April 2026 through Pakistan. He pleaded no knowledge of terms that Iran says were agreed. This war is far from over. The three main players have different ideological missions for different end games. It is difficult to see what can be negotiated apart from punitive matters, unless one of them is more or less completely defeated for the time being.
This badly planned two-day war has now gone into its seventh week. The ceasefire appears to be a mere pause. As expected, talks have faltered. Neither side has used their most potent weapons. US and Israel have refrained from using nuclear weapons. Iran has not mobilised the Muslim Ummah, a weapon more dangerous than missiles and blockage of Hormuz.
The three main actors, United States, Israel and Iran are locked in political cages of their own making and no one can really to open the door. This war is becoming very complex and multifaceted with potential to extend to South Asia as well as Far East. It is a war that has no beginning and may have no end. Let us look at it in its different components.
THE USA
This war has exposed one of the long held fallacies about American democracy and the State. Even in a decision as serious as waging a war, the fabled checks and balances of the United States governing system have failed to work. It appears that they are discretionary and dependent on the goodwill of the President as well as political will of the elected representatives. The President, persuaded by the Netanyahu team and the pro-Israeli Jewish lobby in America, attacked Iran with a naïve plan of decapitation on first day, capitulation on second day and a revolution on the third day, metaphorically.
Despite reservations from United States’ competent intelligence service, an extremely informed and over financed Army, Air Force and Navy, a highly knowledgeable State Department, Netanyahu’s men were able to convince the President and his political team to dismiss their cautions and go in with guns blazing. Things haven’t quite worked as Trump was led to believe.
US arsenal is depleting, putting it at a risk if a conflict with China or Russia were to take place. Iran seems to have played a deft hand. Domestically Trump has broken a main pre-election MAGA pledge, not to engage in foreign wars. Public opinion won’t tolerate nuclear strikes, carpet bombing or boots on the ground.
America’s standing is diminishing as the unbeatable world power, a status it gained after collapse of the Soviet. Despite having lost wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Americans still believe in their own invincibility. Many American policy makers are determined to regain that hegemony. The dollar is also being challenged. The Petro-dollar architecture of America’s financial muscle has been threatened to some extent in the current war as Iran has insisted being paid in the Chinese yuan. Therefore America’s mission is to regain its short lived undisputed hegemony and post war undisputed dominance of the Dollar against which privilege it has borrowed exponentially.
ISRAEL
The state of Israel as a promised land has long been a call of the Jewish people forced into exile intermittently for nearly 4,000 years. Following the Balfour agreement in 1917 and finally the exit of Britain from the region, modern Israel came into being, fulfilling that dream. However, problems started immediately as the displaced Palestinian people, whose land this was, started fighting back to recover their lost lands. The surrounding Islamic states were equally unforgiving.
Israel’s survival has been an uneasy one. Most of the European Jews who came to Israel also have long traumatic memories of persecutions and marginalisation. This was compounded many times over by the German holocaust. It is not surprising that Israel has a perpetual concern about its survival and Jews fear a return to exile.
This is further compounded by a religious narrative influencing extremist views that a significant part of the remaining Palestinian lands, of Jordan and Lebanon were promised to the Jews by God. Netanyahu has exploited that narrative a few times to whip up extremist support and justify wars. There are Jewish groups, growing in number, who want Palestinians out of Gaza and Muslims out of Lebanon and parts of Jordan to fulfil this prophecy.
Israel has also been a constant victim of Iran’s rhetoric to kick it out of Muslim lands. There are other Islamic groups with this agenda. Iran has circled Israel with well trained and armed militias. It is not surprising that Israel wants Iran defanged particularly as Iran has a nuclear programme that could be a big threat to Israel.
Unlike US that simply wants to denuclearise Iran to reassert its order and put in a regime that will not start it again, Israel wants to destroy Iran, reduce other neighbours to submission and gain further land for a greater Israel with a mission to become the regional superpower that no Muslim country would dare to attack.
Hence the aims of Israel and USA are different. Israel is unlikely to give up this war until it achieves its aims of a security project built on fears of annihilation and exile. And for some, the realisation of the Zionist dream of Greater Israel. Moderate Israelis need a new government that might seek reconciliation with the neighbours, return some of the land and find a common form of governance for Jerusalem, the holy land for Jews, Christian and Muslims.
IRAN
Contrary to Trump’s perspective of Iran, influenced by his win in Venezuela, Iran is much older and resilient civilisation. There is over 6,000 years of history. Iranians are people who have ruled large empires and have a deep sense of history, nationalism and pride. Their literature is rich and they have long list of geniuses in history. Unlike many other Islamic countries where the clergy interprets the Qur’an literary, often detracting from scientific development, and further to support the regime of the state, Iran’s Mullahs interpret the Qur’an to support science, development and their form of democracy. Hence it is one of the most intelligent countries in the Islamic world with natural resources, infrastructure and talent to make it a superpower. This threatens occidental hegemony.
The Fatwa by the late Ayatollah Khamenei, forbade development of nuclear weapons. Sadly the West has largely ignored this self-instituted brake by the Iranian state. Western political thinkers assume Iran thinks in the same way as they and simply creating deflective fatwas.
The largely Iranian Shia population has also lived through persecutions and marginalisation at the hands of the dominant Sunni powers for over a thousand years. It shares that history with the Jews although from different forces. The real unspoken threat that concerns Iran’s Shia leaders is not Israel but the Sunni extremist waves that want to destroy Shia Islam. Israel is a convenient ruse to deflect attention from that. Instead it has become the main focus now.
THE UMMAH
Islam gives the people of believers, the Ummah, considerable democratic voice in decision making and governance. However, powerful warlords and kings have denied it that privilege. There is general unease in the Muslim Ummah across the Middle East about current governing institutions. It briefly led to the Arab Spring. But the political hope of a more democratic governance system based on Islam still remains dominant aspiration in the people.
Iran has a form of Islamic democracy. It also has a number of militia groups aligned to it, armed and well trained to join its war against Israel. Its strategy has been to make life difficult for the average Israeli who has to run into shelters several times a day. Iranian missiles are piercing Israeli defence systems. Israel is being attacked from the North by Hezbollah who could break into Israel. Israel is also being rained by missiles from the south by the Yemeni Houthis.
Among the larger Sunni population of Middle East and North Africa, Iran has a mixed support from some of the leading disgruntled groups. A large faction of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, and its branches across Middle East, has connections with Iran. The Sunni Al Qaeda groups have also had good relations with Iran. Some of its leaders have had sanctuary in Iran. However, there is also a considerable faction with Al Qaeda that calls the Shia a bigger Satan than America! The Islamic State movement is bitterly opposed to Shia Iran. The new Sunni regime in Syria is too dependent on Saudi Arabia and US to even consider supporting Iran. In fact it is opposed because Iran supported the ousted Syrian leader Assad. Hamas, a Sunni outfit, benefitted mostly from Iranian weapons, training and money. Hamas is down now but feels an obligation to support Iran. The Afghan Taliban and some of its associates across the Middle East also support Iran despite the Sunni-Shia rivalry. There are other Sunni groups with mixed relations with Iran.
Despite complex relationships with the main Sunni insurgent movements, Iran and these Sunni groups share some common goals. They all want Israel to be driven out of Muslim lands. They want US bases to be removed from Muslim lands. They see the land as sacred, now infiltrated by ‘infidels’. Al Qaeda’s main objective was to get rid of US bases. Thirdly, most of these groups are opposed to Monarchies as they feel they are inconsistent with the voice of the Muslim people, the Ummah.
Iran concentrated its counter attacks on the Gulf Kingdoms who are the main suppliers of oil, gas and fertilisers to much of the world. There appear to be three aims in this. One is to affect the world economy and the Petrodollar economy thus putting pressure on USA. The second is to make these Kingdoms unsafe for the major investors who thought the region is safe and low tax. The Third aim is the most dangerous one. It is to weaken the internal hold of these monarchies and mobilise the Arab street against the Monarchies and against Israel.
THE GULF MONARCHIES
The kings of the Gulf Kingdoms are among the very few absolute Monarchs left in a world where power has largely diffused to the people or experts and political coalitions. Most are legacies of colonialism and its pathological decolonisation process.
The Gulf monarchies have survived by bribing the citizens, meeting their needs from cradle to grave. They provide free health care, education, welfare housing etc. It has many layered protections against political aspirants. Most of the work in these monarchies is done by enterprising people from other countries which get resident rights but not citizenship. They benefit from extremely low taxes. The money flows from the huge revenues from oil and gas. The Monarchies are defended by the USA from whom they have bought defence systems and training for their armies. The defence pacts are however not solid. Unlike NATO, the USA is not obliged to come to the defence of these monarchies. The Monarchies have provided USA with over 18 bases in the region in return for security.
Iran appears to be destroying this cozy system. By hitting the economies and making the Gulf States unsafe, capital will flow out, foreign workers will leave, and the tap of oil money will start to dry. The ability of the monarchies to provide for its citizens will be affected, thus inciting disaffection. The money given by the monarchies to other Sunni groups in the region will also start shrinking, testing their loyalties. The monarchies which are vast extended families may also find some members of their relatives facing economic hardship. This is a dangerous scenario. In the current conflict, people have noticed that the monarchies lack real influence with USA. America instead gave preference to Israel, the Muslim people’s most hated country!
MOBILISATION OF THE UMMAH
The Islamic ummah, or the ordinary Muslim people, are divided in largely two groups: The Shia and the Sunni. There have been historic tensions and some times conflicts. This division has prevented broader unity in Islam. However from time to time, the Ummah has come together. The most legendary was when Salahudin attacked Christian Jerusalem to end the crusade reign. His name and accomplishment is a legend in Islamic communities.
Iran has played the role of Salahudin to some extent. It has supported and trained Sunni Hamas, the Sunni Jihadist movement and the Muslim Brotherhood among others. They have been abandoned by the Sunni Kingdoms and even States. The Muslim Brotherhood won elections in Egypt but was forced out of Government by a coup backed by western powers.
If Iran is able to cross the Sunni-Shia divide, degrade the Monarchies and give leadership to a holy Jihad to rid the holy lands of ‘infidels’, the entire region could go up in flames with several groups fighting each other, against the Americans and Israel and depose the Monarchies. No amount of bombing can stop an army of people driven by belief. From the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamic State, the Hezbollah, the Houthis, the dissident Shia groups in Iraq, the region will see conflicts long into the next decade. Iraq, Syria and Libia are tasters.
The USA will lose most if not all of its presence in the region. This will favour Russia and China. More dangerously, Israel’s existence may be short-lived then. Can it really defend against armed groups attacking from all sides and no countries to protect.
President Trump’s team has probably underestimated the abilities and cunning of the Iranians. Iran is unlikely now to end this war until it achieves its mission of ridding America off its back. The Muslim Ummah is a far more potent weapon than nuclear weapons. Ayatollah Khamenei probably factored this in his Fatwa. A nuclear Iran might frighten some of the Sunni dominated regions who may think a nuclear armed Shia will be a bigger threat to them than the status quo. To gain the confidence of the Sunni majority of Middle East, it seems Iran has had to sacrifice its ambition for the bomb. The Sunni Ummah has to feel comfortable and at least equal with Iran’s Shia. It is remarkable how thorough and clever the Iranian strategists have been. The Iranians have the diplomatic skills and political cunning to mobilise Sunni organisations to join in this multifaceted war.
Both the US and Israel will try their best to stop this larger brotherhood forming. They will bribe and split groups. However the pictures of the senseless attack on a school full of young children has shocked and reviled the Muslim people across the world. It will be hard for Sunni leaders to align with US and Israel especially if Iran plays its cards well. That is the war still waiting to happen.
DIFFUSING TENSIONS
For its survival, Israelis should consider electing a government that has diplomatic and negotiating skills. Through centuries, Muslims have protected Jews against the crusades. Annihilation of Jews is not an Islamic obsession. There are still 20000 Jews in Iran living comfortably. There were more but Israel propaganda persuaded them to come to the ‘security’ of Israel, even though there was no threat in Iran.
The seeds of this war go back thousands of years in the narrative of the promised land and the Exodus, both of which influence Jewish communities around the world. Having achieved the land, perhaps a policy of coexistence might be safer. The narrative of the promised land can be a shared land with others. In fact there are some Rabbinic religious Jewish groups who consider the promised land as an afterlife, Olam Ha-Ba, rather than real estate on this earth. A fact Israel may need to consider is that even if it destroys Iran’s regime, the conflict with the Islamic Ummah does not end. It will keep on rising even if Israel becomes a regional superpower. There is Turkey rattling its sabres. If it joins, there is going to be blood bath in Middle East.
Recent actions by the US Trump regime have been to reassert its power aimed to diminish Chinese political and monetary challenge. The more reactive America becomes, the quicker it seems to be reaching a stage where it will either have to accept China’s power as equal in a multipolar world or become a much reduced shadow of itself due to all the self-destructive policies.
In summary we have three different war aims. The United States’ mission is aimed at China, desperate to restore its own political and Dollar hegemony. However some American leaders have portrayed the war in Biblical terms of the end days. Israel is determined to expand its territory in pursuit of the promised land and become a regional power that will cower the rest of Middle East to guarantee its own security. And Iran is determined to be the major force in Islam finally gaining an upper hand with competing Sunni powers. It is targeting Israel as its first potential trophy. This is not a binary war where negotiations will bring enduring peace. The nuclear issue is a red herring to some extent.
Political institutions and academics pretend that modern wars are secular pursuits. Ancient religious conflicts are as much part of modern conflicts as ever and need different approaches to reconcile. No wonder the United Nations is a behemoth bystander. All three countries need to realise that this war has no clear beginning and no clear end. It is best to secure a peaceful present and let narratives find a common ground through dialogue, politics, diplomacy and desire for religious harmony.
