‘BJP Will Find it Tough to Gain Currency Among Kerala Electorate’

Ros Elizabeth Thomas, pursuing her Masters in Ad, PR&CC at Sharda University, says Kerala voters prefer secular and welfare-oriented governance models. Her views:

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has entered the Kerala Assembly election cycle with renewed ambition, seeking to build on its improved vote share and stronger presence in select constituencies. Having won only one Assembly seat in the state’s history, the party is now aiming to convert its gradual electoral gains into tangible victories. However, I think the real challenge lies in whether this momentum can translate into a meaningful breakthrough in a state long defined by bipolar political competition.

Kerala’s political landscape continues to be dominated by the Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), and the United Democratic Front (UDF), led by the Indian National Congress. This entrenched two-front system has historically limited the scope for a third political force, and I think this remains the BJP’s biggest obstacle in expanding beyond a marginal role.

From my perspective, the BJP’s primary hurdle lies in this structural dynamic. The state’s electoral pattern often sees voters consolidating around one of the two dominant alliances, particularly in closely contested constituencies. I feel that opposition sentiment against the ruling front tends to benefit the UDF more than the BJP, which restricts the latter’s ability to capitalise on anti-incumbency.

I also think Kerala’s socio-political fabric plays a crucial role in shaping voter preferences. With high literacy rates and strong political awareness, the electorate has generally leaned towards secular and welfare-oriented governance models. In my view, this creates a disconnect between the BJP’s ideological positioning and the expectations of a diverse voter base, particularly among minority communities.

At the ground level, the BJP has shown measurable progress. It has emerged as a strong contender in several constituencies, including Nemom, Neyyattinkara, Attingal, Kazhakkoottam and Palakkad. These performances suggest improved organisational strength, targeted campaigning, and a growing support base. However, I think converting second-place finishes into electoral wins remains a significant challenge.

In my opinion, the BJP still functions largely as a third option in Kerala’s political arena. While its presence is expanding, the primary contest continues to remain between the LDF and UDF. I believe that despite some growth, the party has yet to match the reach and influence of these alliances.

I also feel that while anti-incumbency against the ruling LDF could influence voter behaviour, such trends have historically favoured the UDF. Anti-Left votes do not automatically shift to the BJP, and this pattern continues to shape electoral outcomes.

There is no clear consensus on whether the BJP’s rising vote share signals a long-term shift in Kerala’s political dynamics. I think some of this growth may be gradual and organisational, but it could also be influenced by national political trends rather than state-specific factors.

For now, while the BJP may improve its overall performance and potentially secure a few more seats, I believe Kerala’s deeply rooted two-front system continues to shape electoral outcomes, making a significant breakthrough uncertain in the current political landscape.

As told to Deepti Sharma