Islamic educational

Indian Madrassas – A Need for Reorientation

The first institute of Islamic Madrassa education was at the estate of Hazrat Zaid bin Arkam near a hill called Safa in Makkah, where Prophet Muhammad was the teacher and the students were some of his followers. After Hijrah (migration) to Madina the Madrassa of ‘Suffah’ was established on the east side of the Al-Masjid an-Nabawi. The curriculum included understanding of The Holy Qur’an, Hadith, fara’iz, tajweed, genealogy, treatises of first aid, etc.

Current Challenges

Ever since their emergence, the Madrassas in India have persisted with a curriculum that has seen few changes. The fact that literally, lakhs of Muslim children acquire their primary, and perhaps their only formal education, in these Madrassas where only literature and Islamic studies with a cursory knowledge of social sciences thrown in, are taught, should be a matter of concern not only to their parents but also to anybody concerned with education in any manner.  The format of education imparted to the students of Madrassas ought to be modified keeping in view the shifting demands of the job market – a concern that can no longer be under-played.  And this is perfectly possible without an erosion of the cultural and religious identity.

Developing suitable answers for today’s dilemmas requires an examination of the essentials of education. Education involves transference to others, of knowledge and values accumulated by mankind. Even though schools and teachers have been part of the process of education for hundreds or even thousands of years, it is the spirit of enquiry that has enriched mankind with knowledge.  We learn through reading, experience by watching others and by observing the world in general.  Inculcating a spirit of scientific enquiry in students will perhaps be the best manner of propelling them on the path of learning.

Even though this may be the general agreement, it is a fact that in this country particularly, whenever an attempt is made to institute any profound change, a resistance begins to act from its very inception. The critics flinch at the vision of a Madrassa system where modern education would jettison religious knowledge and make education “worldly” and “impersonal”.

It is a matter of satisfaction to note that of late, some Madrassas, have realised the significance of modern education, and have introduced teaching science, English and Computer skills in their curricula. For example the two largest Madrassas in India, Darul Uloom-Deoband and Nadwa-tul Ulema-Lucknow have braced themselves to be the harbinger of change and have introduced English language teaching and computer skills as part of their curriculum. But both have not been able to bring about any noticeable improvement in the quality of education they impart to their students.

It is often argued that if modern education is so sensational, why hasn’t it brought any notable improvement to education in the few Madrassas that have adopted it? In reality, in spite of modern education being imparted, thousands of Madrassas don’t have a well-formulated curriculum, and/or couldn’t implement it even if they wanted to, as they don’t have sufficiently trained and proficient staff.

MILAP Programme

During the last ten years or so, Madrassa Education in India has been a subject of interest, debate and prominence both in the educational and research circles, in media and of course the civil and political discourse. Based on different research studies and the demand for Capacity Building of Madrassa in India, an NGO of Delhi-Minorities Initiative for Learning, Advancement and Partnership (MILAP- www.milapindia.org) started a Capacity Building Programme for Madrassa Teachers and Students, which later became known as MILAP Programme.

The Capacity Building of Madrassas Programme (CBM) was based on inputs from madrassa teachers, administrators, religious scholars and educationists. The two-day consultative workshop held in 2008, deliberated over the needs, requirements and aspirations of madrassa teachers and students, how modern educationists could supplement their inputs and how a better cohesive programme could be tailor-made for the Madrassa audience.

The MILAP programme for Madrassa teachers focused first on identifying the areas which needed intervention from modern educationists and secondly, how to evolve the correct training for the participants. The same set of principles also applied to Madrassa students programme.

Based on the initial consultations with religious scholars and Madrassa administrators, one of the key strategies to improve the quality of education offered in Madrassas was designed to develop new, and strengthen existing tools and skills to equip Madrassa Teachers to enhance the overall quality of the teaching-learning practices within their Madrassas. The CBM programme was designed based on a “professional development/coaching model”. This was intended to help address the gaps in teaching-learning practices. The CBM programme was offered to Madrassa Teachers and Students across India, and so far, has been organised in New Delhi, Aligarh, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Pune and Guwahati. 

The training topics for teachers ranged from ​Indian culture and religions, besides an introduction to constitutional & other legal rights of minorities and human rights. Introduction to different teaching methods. Role and responsibilities of an effective teacher, Lesson planning: Principles and Process. Concept, importance and types of teaching aids for language teaching, particularly English, Sciences, and elementary Mathematics. Besides understanding the socio-economic and educational background of the students, child and educational psychology, understanding the student-teacher communication process and formulating responses based on these inputs. Focus on spoken and written English, besides an introduction to the use of computers and Internet, was a key component of the training.

The Way Forward

To gauge the efficacy of these training programmes, a feedback survey was conducted by an external consultant after every programme and finally collated on an all-India basis. Based on the survey findings and feedback from the organisers of these Training Courses in 11 Indian cities, it could be surmised that there is a huge demand from both Madrassa teachers and students to learn and be acquainted with other subjects (modern subjects) not taught in madrassas.

The Madrassa teachers lack any idea about what modern educational techniques and management are, how lesson plans could help them improve their pedagogy skills, how by learning about the psychological state of their students they could focus more on students individually. The madrassa teachers lack basic skills in subjects like mathematics and science subjects and they are eager to learn these. The introduction of computers was an eye opener for both the students and teachers and they were really anxious to get their hands on the latest technology and for madrassa teachers it was really an eye opener to know how they could use computers in teaching subjects like Hadith and the Holy Qu’ran. Meanwhile, the students groups all across India were eager to improve their personal and communications skills and learn subjects like time management, English speaking and writing skills.

Most of these training programmes were of 15 to 21 days duration, and if during such a short duration, using intensive intervention, outlook of the participants could be changed and skills and topics beneficial to them could be taught to better their skills and personality, then this module could be used to supplement their usual Madrassa teaching and such courses should be organised to help shape their future.

In addition, if the madrassas administration is ready to adapt this module along with the essential religious content, they could take the wind out of sails of the madrassa critics, that madrassas are not ready to change with times. Further, we should understand that Islam is not static but a dynamic religion and we can change the various inputs needed for its dissemination, keeping intact the fundamental principles. This strategy would not only be beneficial but also could be a game changer for the community.

Confidence Building Measures By Government

The MILAP Programme was designed to resemble the key elements from the CBM-sessions and focussed on training the teachers on secular curriculum and pedagogical issues. The objective of the MILAP module was to develop Madrassa/Maktab teachers’ understanding of new educational and pedagogical techniques and assimilate them in Madrassa environment. And to a certain extent it attained its objective very well.

Central bodies like the Ministry of Minority Affairs and Maulana Azad National Foundation could be entrusted to carry forward such successful programmes, whose results have been quantified and documented well.

(Asad Mirza is a political commentator based in New Delhi. He writes on issues related to Muslims, education, geopolitics and interfaith)

Obituary: The Go-To Man In Congress

By Prashant Sood

A staunch loyalist of Nehru-Gandhi family, Ahmed Patel was the go-to man in the Congress who kept a low profile but quietly wielded power and meticulously executed decisions of the leadership. The veteran Congress leader breathed his last at the wee hours of Wednesday at a Gurugram hospital, fighting the COVID-19 and related complications for over a month.

He served as an effective link between the party and government during the two terms of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) between 2004 and 2014. As political secretary to Congress President Sonia Gandhi, he had access to leadership that no other leader in the party had and worked the channels to work out various issues.

A quintessential organisation man, Patel had cross-party connections and direct access to senior opposition leaders such as Nationalist Congress Party’s Sharad Pawar and Trinamool Congress’s Mamata Banerjee.

He shot to limelight when he won Lok Sabha polls from Baruch in Gujarat in 1977 during the Janata Party wave and was made the Gujarat Youth Congress chief. The 71-year old leader was a three-time member of Lok Sabha and was into his fifth term in the Rajya Sabha.

He served as Political Secretary to Congress President Sonia Gandhi for 16 years and rose in stature with time. His rapport with party leaders across generations came in handy in the role as he efficiently executed decisions while acting as a bridge between the top leadership and party functionaries at various levels.

He was appointed party treasurer in August 2018 ahead of the Lok Sabha elections as Congress faced a fund crunch. The appointment came when Rahul Gandhi was the party president showing his resourcefulness and indispensability to the party.

After the Congress-led UPA came to power in 2004, Patel refused to join the Cabinet and instead preferred to work in the organisation.

Accessible, polite and tactful, Patel was a link between the gen-next of the party and senior leadership. Suave but understated in his style, Patel also had a good rapport with the media.

He did not shy away from challenges and pulled off a dramatic victory in Gujarat Rajya Sabha polls despite a determined effort by the BJP to prevent the Congress from winning the seat. It was a battle where his personal prestige was at stake and Patel fought to the finish. The victory in the widely reported election also helped boost the morale of the Congress workers.

Born on August 21, 1949, Patel pursued BSc at Shree Jayendra Puri Arts and Science College, Bharuch, South Gujarat University.

A long-serving member of the Congress Working Committee, he was among those who contested and won elections to the party’s highest decision-making body. Patel had earlier also served as the treasurer of the party when Congress was out of power from 1996-2000. He had also been involved with the work of Rajiv Gandhi Foundation.

Even as he facing an Enforcement Directorate questioning in a case of alleged money laundering, he was not bitter in his political attacks and accused the BJP-led government of “political vindictiveness”.

Patel was also the party’s key link with leaders across the political divide. While he played a key role in managing the party’s ties with allies when the United Progressive Alliance governments were in power, he worked equations when the party was not in power to see that Congress remained the principal pole in Opposition and worked closely with other parties during joint programmes against the BJP-led government.

He was unhappy over the letter that a group of 23 Congress leaders wrote to Sonia giving their suggestions for the party’s revamp and instead wanted them to convey their views by meeting her.

Patel was a key player in party’s central-level politics but in home state Gujarat, the Congress continues to battle a series of challenges, having been out of power for nearly 25 years. The party put up a determined fight in the last Assembly poll and almost gave a scare to the BJP but it seems to have lost the momentum now. It lost all the eight bypolls in the state recently on seats that fell vacant with resignations of Congress MLAs ahead of the Rajya Sabha elections. (ANI)

IOC Promises Unforgettable Olympic Experience In 2021

Speaking from the Olympic Village during his recent visit to Tokyo, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) President Thomas Bach promised the athletes an unforgettable experience at the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 next year.

“You will never ever forget these moments in the Olympic Village in all your life. And with the conditions our Japanese friends are offering here, the experience will be even more fantastic,” said Bach in a video message addressing the global athletes’ community.

“This is the place to be nine months from now. I am very happy to be able to greet you here from the Olympic Village in Tokyo,” he added.

Acknowledging the difficulties that many athletes are currently facing due to restrictive measures put in place to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, the IOC President encouraged them to keep up with their preparations.

“Get ready for these Olympic Games and train even harder, even under these very difficult circumstances many of you, and most of you, are in at this moment. But if you look around again, I think it is worth the effort. I am looking forward to seeing you at Tokyo 2020, in Tokyo 2020 plus one,” he said.

IOC, in a release, said the water-side Olympic Village is designed to house the majority of athletes who will be competing at the Games.

Bach praised the accommodation and the view that the athletes will enjoy during their stay at the Olympic Village. He also stopped by the Olympic Stadium where he commended the atmosphere and design created by architect Kengo Kuma, who was also a member of the jury for the construction of Olympic House in Lausanne.

Bach started his visit to Japan by meeting Japanese Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga. During the meeting of the joint IOC, International Paralympic Committee (IPC) and Tokyo 2020 project review that followed, all partners reaffirmed their full commitment to delivering Olympic and Paralympic Games fit for a post-coronavirus world next year. (ANI)

Chins Opposes Banning Of More Of Its Apps By India

China has firmly opposed India’s move to ban more Chinese mobile applications and expressed hope that the Indian side would provide a “fair, impartial and non-discriminatory business environment” for all market players.

In a statement on Wednesday, the Chinese embassy said it opposes the Indian side’s repeated use of national security as an “excuse” to prohibit some mobile apps with a Chinese background. It added that China and India are opportunities for development to each other rather than threats.

China’s response comes a day after India banned 43 apps included many of Chinese origin. AliExpress, Alibaba Workbench, WeWork China, CamCard, and SnackVideo are among those apps banned in the latest instance.

The banned applications, which include a few dating apps, were a threat to the “sovereignty and integrity of India”, the Indian government said in a statement.

“We firmly oppose the Indian side’s repeated use of ‘national security’ as an excuse to prohibit some Mobile APPs with a Chinese background. The Chinese government has always required overseas Chinese companies to abide by international rules, operate in compliance with laws and regulations and conform to public order and good morals,” the Embassy said.

“We hope the Indian side provides a fair, impartial and non-discriminatory business environment for all market players from various countries including China, and rectify the discriminatory practices violating WTO rules,” it added.

The Chinese embassy further said that both sides should bring bilateral economic and trade relations back to the right path for mutual benefit and win-win results on the basis of dialogue and negotiation.

Earlier on June 29, 2020, the government had blocked access to 59 mobile apps and on September 2, 2020, another 118 more apps were banned under section 69A of the Information Technology Act. (ANI)

Ahmed Patel Passes Away After Covid Complications

Senior Congress leader Ahmed Patel, who was undergoing treatment at a Gurugram hospital after testing positive for the COVID-19, breathed his last after multi-organ failure in the wee hours of Wednesday, his son Faisal confirmed. He was 71.

In a tweet, Faisal said that the Rajya Sabha MP from Gujarat died at 3.30 am on Wednesday.

“With profound grief & sorrow, I regret to announce the sad & untimely demise of my father, Mr. Ahmed Patel at 25/11/2020, 03:30 AM. After testing positive for COVID-19 around a month back, his health worsened further due to multiple organ failures. May Allah grant him Jannatul firdaus, inshallah,” he tweeted, requesting all their well-wishers to adhere to the COVID-19 regulations by avoiding mass gatherings.

“…also maintain social distancing norms at all times,” Faisal tweeted.

Patel, also the Treasurer of the Indian National Congress, had tested positive for the COVID-19 on October 1 and was admitted to the Intensive Care Unit of Medanta Hospital in Gurugram on November 15.

On October 1, Patel, while disclosing that he was tested positive for the COVID-19, had urged all those who came in contact with him in past few days to undergo self-isolation. (ANI)

BJP Destroys Mosques, We Collect Money For Temples: Owaisi

Accusing the BJP of wanting to promote hatred, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) chief Asaduddin Owaisi on Tuesday said the national party talks of “breaking”, while they talk of uniting.

“Tum to masjid todne wale ho, hum mandir ke liye 10 crore dilane wale log hain (You destroy mosques, but we are the ones who are collecting Rs 10 crore for a temple), Owaisi said at a public meeting at Farhat Nagar in Azampura Divison while campaigning for Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation elections.

“This is the difference between you and us. You talk of breaking and we talk of uniting,” he said.

“In Telangana Assembly, (AIMIM leader) Akbaruddin Owaisi has asked for Rs 10 crore for a temple. The chief minister was shocked, the BJP was distressed. People of all faith live here and we want that they should follow their religion. It is the thinking of the Majlis. I will not allow the situation of the 1980s and 1990s to be repeated here,” he said in an indirect reference to the Ram Janmabhoomi movement and Babri masjid demolition. “I do not want to ruin the memories of children but the BJP wants to promote hatred,” said Owaisi.

Appealing to voters to vote for the AIMIM in the upcoming GHMC polls, Owaisi added the BJP hated Majlis because they opposed the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, National Register of Citizens and other “unconstitutional Bills” brought by them.

The Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation polls will be held on December 1 and results will be declared on December 4. (ANI)

Govt Keeping Close Watch On Vaccine Development: Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday said that the government is keeping a close eye on COVID-19 vaccine development and clarified that the dosage and price of the vaccine were uncertain as of now.

“The government is keeping a close track of vaccine development. We are in touch with Indian vaccine developers and manufacturers. We are also in touch with global regulators, governments of other countries, multinational organisation and international companies. It is not certain whether there will be one, two or three doses of a vaccine. It is also not decided what will be the price of the vaccine. We still don’t have answers to these questions,” PM Modi said.

The Prime Minister was speaking to the chief ministers over the deteriorating pandemic situation in their states at a virtual meeting held today.

“It’s yet not decided which vaccine will cost how much. Though two India-based vaccines are at the forefront, we’re working with global firms also. Even after drugs being available for years, some people have adverse reactions. So a decision needs to be taken on a scientific basis,” PM added.

PM Modi advised the states to ‘establish cold storage facilities for COVID-19 vaccine’ beforehand and suggested them to prepare and send a plan for its distribution to the centre.

“I urge states to send detailed plans soon on how they plan to take the vaccine to the lowest levels. It will help us in making decisions as your (state) experiences are valuable. I hope for your pro-active participation. There should not be any room for carelessness during vaccine distribution,” PM Modi added.

Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan replied to PM Modi’s advice stating, “We are ready with cold chain storage facilities for the vaccine. Training of healthcare workers for administering vaccine is underway. As soon as we get the vaccine, vaccination will be started. Appeal to people to continue following all COVID19 guidelines.”

The Prime Minister also said that the COVID-19 vaccine for every citizen was a ‘national commitment’ and everyone should contribute to this mission.

Prime Minister asserted, “This mission of Coronavirus vaccination of each citizen is like a national commitment. Each State and stakeholder has to work as a team to ensure that this mission is systematic, smooth and a sustained effort.”

The Prime Minister said that the ratio of RT-PCR tests and monitoring of patients in isolation should be increased. He urged the chief ministers to share their feedback in writing on the COVID-19 strategy.

“Seeing good recovery rates, many think the virus is weak and they will recover soon, this has led to rampant carelessness. Those working on vaccine are doing it but we need to focus on ensuring that people are alert and transmission is curbed,” he said.

Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, Gujarat CM Vijay Rupani, Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot, Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel, Haryana CM Manohar Lal Khattar, Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan, and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal are among those were present at the meeting, held via video conferencing.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Union Health Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan, NITI Aayog’s Dr VK Paul, Cabinet secretary, and Health Secretary also attended the meet.

The Prime Minister had earlier chaired several meetings with chief ministers in the past six months over the pandemic.

India reported 37,975 new COVID-19 infections in the last 24 hours and 480 deaths due to the disease, according to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare on Tuesday.

The total cases in the country now stands at 91,77,841 including 86,04,955 recoveries and 4,38,667 active cases. With 480 new deaths, the cumulative toll reached 1,34,218. The country is reporting around 30,000 to 47,000- daily new cases for the past few days. (ANI)

Diplomat Turned Foreign Minister

Afghan Peace Process Must Be Led By Afghans: India

Calling for an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire to stop violence in Afghanistan, India on Tuesday reiterated that the peace process must be Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled.

Speaking at the Afghanistan 2020 Conference via video conferencing, S Jaishankar, Minister of External Affairs, said, “India has invested heavily in peace and development of Afghanistan. We strongly believe that the gains of the last two decades must be preserved and the interests of the minorities, women and vulnerable sections must be ensured. The increasing level of violence in Afghanistan naturally remains a matter of grave concern.”

“While we support all efforts to bring peace and stability in Afghanistan, India calls for an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire. We also believe that the peace process must be Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled,” he said.

During the conference, he also announced the India-Afghanistan agreement for building the Shahtoot Dam and phase 4 of high impact community development projects in Afghanistan.

He said, “I am happy to announce today an agreement with Afghanistan for building the Shahtoot Dam, which would provide safe drinking water to 2 million residents of Kabul city. India will also launch phase 4 of high impact community development projects in Afghanistan, which include around 150 projects worth USD 80 million. India has invested heavily in peace and development of Afghanistan.”

The External Affairs Minister said that India and Afghanistan share a natural and historical relationship and moreover “our strategic partnership and long term commitment to the development of Afghanistan reflects these time tested partnership”.

He also said, “Our development portfolio of more than USD 3 billion for Afghanistan is aimed at building capacities and capabilities of Afghan nationals as well as its institutions with a view to improving governance and public service. There is no part of Afghanistan today untouched by our 400 plus projects spread across all the 34 provinces of Afghanistan.”

He said that the ongoing developmental programmes in Afghanistan are centered around five pillars — large infrastructure projects, human resource development and capacity building, humanitarian assistance and high impact community development projects and enhancing trade and investment through air and land connectivity.

“Large infrastructure projects completed include the construction of the 218 km road from Delaram to Zaranj on the Iran border that provides alternative connectivity for Afghanistan through Iran. The India-Iran friendship dam and the Afghan Parliament building which was inaugurated in 2015 — a true symbol of Afghan democracy,” he said.

He further said that while over 65,000 Afghan students have already studied in India under various scholarships, 15,000 are currently studying here and 3,000 scholarships have been granted to young Afghan women to pursue higher studies in India. “Going beyond basic education, we also provide vocational education to a large number of women in Afghanistan. This number shall increase every year with our long term commitment to help rebuild Afghanistan.”

Speaking of the challenges on Afghanistan being a land-locked country, Jaishankar said, “We have provided alternative connectivity to Afghanistan through Chabahar port and a dedicated Air Freight Corridor between India and Afghanistan. The Chabahar port has helped us to transport 75,000 tonnes of wheat to Afghanistan during the COVID-19 pandemic. We are also able to send more than 20 tonnes of life-saving medicines and other equipment to address the coronavirus challenge.”

While concluding the conference, he said, “As an important stakeholder, India looks forward to walking hand in hand with the people of Afghanistan and the world community to work towards the peaceful, prosperous, sovereign, democratic and united Afghanistan.” (ANI)

Ayurveda Docs Performing Surgery Is ‘khichdification’ Of Medicine: IMA

The Indian Medical Association (IMA) has slammed the Central Council of Indian Medicine, the regulatory body for the study and practice of Ayurveda in India, for allowing its practitioners to perform general surgery such as ophthalmology and dental procedure and called it ‘khichadification’ of medical education.

Dr Rajan Sharma, president, IMA, said the AYUSH ministry has issued a clarification claiming the technical terms and the modern developments are a common heritage of mankind. IMA rejects the clarification as deceptive camouflage of mixing the systems of medicine. “It is nothing but a blatant attempt at mixopathy and Khichadification of medical education and practice.”

In a press statement today, the IMA demanded the withdrawal of a recently issued notification that is amendment regulations of Postgraduate Ayurveda Education.

“The entire modern medical profession of the nation feels betrayed by the level of violation and encroachment by the Central Council of Indian Medicine (CCIM). IMA demands withdrawal of the notification of the amendment regulations of Postgraduate Ayurveda Education,” the IMA said in the statement.

“In the said notification the Post Graduate courses namely MS Shalya Tantra the words (General Surgery) have been incorporated. A long list of modern medicine surgical procedures have been enlisted under Shalya Tantra and Shalakya Tantra. These competencies squarely fall under the ambit, authority and jurisdiction of modern medicine having been prescribed by the then Medical Council of India as the competencies ascribable to the postgraduate course titled MS (General Surgery),” the IMA said.

IMA claims that One Nation One System is being espoused as the official policy and all the six hundred-odd medical colleges of India are expected to turn out ‘Hybrid’ doctors of a Khichadi medical system by 2030.The association commented on the Ayush ministry’s ability to administer anaesthesia and said, “It is very obvious that AYUSH is dependent on modern medicine doctors, anaesthesia, antibiotics and equipments to perform modern medicine surgical procedures. It fails the test of logic behind such irresponsible initiative placing thousands of gullible patients at risk.”

The Central Working Committee of IMA has been called for an emergency session. The 28 state branches have been directed to hold their State Working Committees. The quantum and the timing of the first All India response to the situation is being determined. In any case it will not be later than Wednesday 02 December 2020. (ANI)

US Imposes Sanctions On Six Chinese Companies

Analysis: US-China Relations Will Only Worsen Hereto

On 13 November, China finally offered its congratulations to Joe Biden and running mate Kamala Harris on their US electoral victory, one of the last major countries to do so. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said, “We respect the choice of the American people.”

Ironically, China does not respect the voice of its own people, since China’s leaders are selected in opaque closed-circle affairs that are mired in secrecy. Nonetheless, a change in leadership of the US holds the prospect of altered ties for friends and foes alike in the Asia-Pacific region.

No relationship will be more important and indeed volatile, than that between Washington and Beijing. Chairman Xi Jinping and his cohort will presumably feel a degree of relief that someone more predictable will be ensconced in the White House come late January. However, if Xi is hoping for a major reset in their relationship, or a return to the halcyon days of Barak Obama’s first term, then he is going to be disappointed.

ANI spoke to Malcolm Davis, Senior Analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), about any change in trajectory between Trump’s and Biden’s administrations. “I think in broad-brush tones, it will be more of the same. I think what Biden will do is restore a multilateralist approach and try to strengthen relations with key US allies … I certainly don’t see Biden adopting the approach that some people are advocating in the US of soft-pedalling China and trying to go back to an Obama first-term type of approach to engagement. I think China is now a bipartisan issue in Washington DC, and everyone understands what China is about and their intentions. So I think the US will continue to push back and try to deter a rising China. And that’s good for the region, because the last thing you’d want is a Biden that would essentially accommodate China or give it strategic space.”

Davis also offered an assessment of the past four years under a Trump presidency as it relates to the Indo-Pacific region’s security. The Canberra-based academic said: “Well, it’s a bit hit and miss with Trump. On the one hand, I think he’s been correct to push back strongly against China, which is something the Obama administration didn’t do enough of, certainly in its first term. So Trump has reversed a decline in US influence in that sense, and I think he’s also done well in terms of boosting US defence spending and recognizing the importance of focusing on the Indo-Pacific as opposed to getting sidetracked in terms of the Middle East adventures … I think in relation to China, Trump probably would have pushed back harder against China, which would have been good…”

That was the positive side of things, but there were serious downsides too. “…I think the negatives are quite apparent. His transactional approach to diplomacy with allies has been quite destructive, particularly in regards to South Korea, and the whole debate over how much Seoul is going to pay for US forces has been really counterproductive. I think the uncertainty the region feels about Trump and whether the US would honor its commitments has also eroded confidence in US leadership. And the concern has to be, if Trump had won, a second Trump term probably would have seen even more concern about eroding US reliability and their willingness to lead and respond to a challenge.”

There is thus a palpable sense of comfort in many Asian nations now that Trump is exiting. Davis again: “I think there’s relief that maybe a degree of normality will return to the world stage under Biden. I do think there’s perhaps a little bit of concern about how Biden will handle the progressive wing of the Democrats, which are more important now than they were under Obama, so that’s a challenge for Biden to make sure that group doesn’t have undue influence over US foreign and defense policy, for that would be disastrous.”

Overall though, the ASPI analyst sees a Biden win as “pretty much positive”, with the proviso that the US and the rest of the world “can get through to January 20th in a reasonably calm and peaceful manner and that President Trump does the right thing and concedes and walks off to do other things.”

Indeed, “We’ll be in a much better situation than what would have been the case under President Trump in a second term, because I think there would have been real concerns that, in his second term, his tendencies towards transactional approaches to foreign policy and his erratic approach to defense and security issues might have been more challenging to the region.”

There are many relations for Biden to patch up around Asia: India, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand being just a few examples. “There is the potential now under Biden to really rebuild a lot of those key relationships and strengthen them to counterbalance a rising China and to deter a rising China, and that’s really what we should be aiming for,” Davis shared.

The USA certainly has a lot to do to reassure ASEAN members of US interest and support. Seoul is a key issue too, for if it feels the USA is abandoning it in any way, the development of nuclear weapons could become a priority for South Korea so it can protect itself against a nuclear-armed Pyongyang. And if South Korea took this route, Japan would surely follow suit. With two new nuclear powers on its doorstep, neither of which China is fond of, the PLA would undoubtedly alter its own nuclear posture, and so the whole strategic balance in East Asia would be irrevocably altered.

Any Chinese dreams of a return to the old days of Sino-US relations are a pipe dream. Worse, than that, Davis predicts the relationship will become more fraught.

He assessed, “I think tensions will increase. They’ll increase in the South China Sea. They’ll increase in relation to Taiwan. I think China has made itself very clear that it is seeking to realize the China Dream, which is a rejuvenated China that wants to assert its dominance as, if you like, a 20th-century Middle Kingdom … China is determined to end US strategic primacy in the Indo-Pacific, and essentially it wants to dominate the region itself. It constantly makes public pronouncements about it not being an oppressive or hegemonic power, yet that’s exactly what it’s doing in terms of how it’s managing the situation in the South China Sea, in how it’s using the Belt and Road Initiative, to exert geopolitical influence.”

The Australian continued: “I do think the US will face a more challenging threat from China. It has to respond to this threat; it can’t just ignore it. It certainly can’t get diverted into the Middle East, and I think Biden has to recognize that, even though there are serious domestic and fiscal issues that he has to deal with at home, he can’t gut US defense spending to pay for those resolutions. He has to maintain high defense spending, and we’re in a period of strategic competition that will last years.”

This phrase “strategic competition” is a critical one. It echoes the US National Security Strategy published in late 2017, which labeled China a major rival. Given the growing might of the People’s Liberation Army, and China’s priority to assert Chinese sovereignty and influence far from its shores, the risk is heightening.

Davis pointed out, “I think that Prime Minister Morrison here in Australia, when he released the 2020 Defence Strategic Update, was quite correct to make the parallel with the 1930s. And so we have to start acting as though we’re in a prewar period, and that’s for the US as well. I think they recognize that with China, and with Russia in mind as well.”

Taiwan remains a wildcard in the Sino-US relationship too. Davis certainly believes it so, “Because I think there are real concerns that China is probably going to provoke, to make moves around, Taiwan, and it will be interesting to see how Biden will respond to that. I’d hope that Biden would potentially emulate the Trump administration’s approach in recognizing the importance of Taiwan and strengthening the relationship with Taipei to counterbalance and deter China from making such moves. But we’ll see what happens.”

Davis remains confident that Biden will maintain stiff US resolve against Beijing. “I think all indications are, in terms of defense, Biden will have a good secretary of defense with Michele Flournoy as the logical candidate. We’re not sure who’s going to be his secretary of state, but I think Biden will benefit from having experienced policy hands around him in terms of people in key positions. I think one of the weaknesses of the Trump administration was that there were not enough key people in key positions to effectively manage problems with policy.”

In the last weeks of Trump in office, we can expect a flurry of activity aimed against China. For instance, some media claimed a two-star American admiral from the Indo-Pacific Command had just visited Taiwan on official business.

Biden would perhaps find it almost suicidal politically to reverse strong anti-China policies enacted by Trump. Yet Beijing will surely look for ways of initially cooperating with Biden, one example being climate change, even though the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) understands the dominant nature of their relationship is now rivalry. Biden may be more predictable than Trump, but the CCP will not yet be sure if he is more or less formidable. Improved communication between the governments is likely to improve though, including backchannels.

Anything overtly aggressive by China in the short term would seem unwise. Biden’s advantage is that he can probably corral greater mutual cooperation in Asia, and thus muster a stronger “coalition” against China in the long run. This will perhaps be China’s greatest fear, whereas Trump was more a loose cannon that damaged everything it encountered.

Some think Pete Buttigieg could be tapped by Biden as the next US ambassador to the United Nations. He has exhibited special interest in China and a good grasp of the CCP’s modus operandi. If so, Beijing could face stronger resistance within the UN.

China is doubtlessly more powerful now than when Trump took up office. Yet Xi has blown the opportunity to curry greater favor around the world, even as Trump was clumsily stepping on allies’ toes. Indeed, a Pew Research Center global survey showed that opinion about China has darkened worldwide, reaching the lowest level in places like Canada, Germany, South Korea, Spain, Sweden and the UK. Some 78% of respondents had little or no confidence that Xi would do the right thing in global affairs. Last year, that figure was 61%.

CCP propaganda tells a narrative of how the party rescued China from foreign predators, allowing the Chinese people to stand tall once again on the world stage. This requires China to be robust on foreign disputes, because it cannot allow itself to appear weak to people at home. Furthermore, its growing economic and political clout encourages it to think it can assert its will over any other country smaller than itself. The issuing of threats and retribution are thus a powerful hammer that China willingly wields against others, but which does nothing to endear itself.

Some might argue that Xi, by pursuing such aggressive tactics, has opened the door wide for the US to regain some lost prestige under a more predictable American president.

Yet Xi is president for life, whereas Trump’s tenure ends soon. China has already charted its course, as witnessed at October’s Fifth Plenum, with Xi’s 2021-25 Five-Year Plan vowing self-reliance in technology, predicting a worsening external environment, increasing global uncertainty, more centralized control of the economy and a rejection of liberalism. China can dig in its heels for the long haul. (ANI)