Shock greeted Trump’s Ukraine peace plan across Europe even more than Ukraine. While many in Ukraine now see the futility of continuing the war, Europe wants a peace plan that keeps its own dignity and credibility high which it cloaks as security for Ukraine and Europe. Trump, it appears is not too fazed by European concerns. His plan, like others is complete yet incomplete, with room for changes in text and deadlines.
Europe is banking on Trump showing flexibility to move the goal posts in its favour, while insisting it is helping Ukraine to be given better security. The plan as it stands more or less gives everything that Russia has been demanding and clearly is a charter of defeat of Ukraine.
The Peace plan has more consequences for Europe than Ukraine. As Trump said in the infamous Oval office dressing down of Zelensky, Ukraine never had the cards. Russia is too powerful, makes its own advanced weapons and is armed to the teeth with nuclear arsenal. Ukraine was always dependent on the United States and Europe for weapons, training, logistic and political support to withstand Russia. Now Ukraine is running out of men to fight the war.
The peace plan is a realistic outcome for Ukraine after three years of war and a brave formidable defence it put up with one hand tied against the mighty Russian grind. It was not allowed to use long range missiles to bomb Russian cities, and Europe or other countries were not allowed to come to its defence. It got arms, logistic support and tremendous political and non-combatant support such as sanctions by the west against Russia, confiscation of Russian assets etc.
The United States was in this conflict as the leader of the west and partly to weaken Russia. Biden gave considerable support to Ukraine. However Trump sees no value for USA in this conflict and wants out. He wants to befriend Russia in the hope he can wring apart the relationship between Russia and China.
More importantly, Trump’s America does not share the European vision of world hegemony described as rule based order, sovereignty, human rights, international trade and international institutions to govern it all. This is what is at stake for Europe more than its rhetorical allegations of possible threats from Russian expansion into Europe.
While Europe is claiming to fight for ‘security’ of Ukraine, this compassion for the vulnerable has not generally been part of its history. The British left no security for Kashmiris, Sikhs, Sindhis, Tamils, the Nagas etc when they left South Asia. A litany of such irresponsibility fills European history till now. Europe sought no greater securities for the thousands of Afghans who helped it in the war nor did it create security for the minorities in Iraq after venturing in there.
Europe has more or less dictated the post-colonial and post war order, having drawn boundaries for others, defined preferred governance systems and helped set up international institutions to monitor them. The rule based order is really a wishful hegemony over how the international system should exist.
History shows that every rising power attempts to order the world around to its advantage but however stable and peaceful that order is for some time, the natural dynamics of disruption and change eventually scatters it as new powers emerge. The Romans came and went, the Mongols came and went, the Mughals came and went, the British came and went and now the European collective is disappearing into the sunset of historical greats.
ALSO READ: Trump And The New World Order
The United States has sensed that the world is changing. Countries like China are not interested in a European idea of the perfect world. Neither is India nor some powerful countries in Africa. Islamic movements are not committed to this ‘rule based’ order either. It is a nice idea, a comforting idea, but neither the universe nor own world lets it last. Turmoil and change are the once constant in nature.
Trump’s America is being pragmatic rather than ideological about this post-colonial and post war institutional order. If it starts to collapse, Europe loses its hegemony, power and influence in the world. That is what Ukraine is all about to Europe now.
The core sticking points for Europe in the peace plan are the unmitigated transfer of Ukraine’s land now occupied by Russia, to Russia and the Russian demand that Ukraine give up its sovereign rights to join NATO and have troops from Europe here. If this happens in the final peace plan, the so called Rule based order of sovereign counties as determined by Europe begins to end. This will be transfer of land, not on European terms, but by Russia without European consent. By prohibiting the expansion of NATO into Ukraine and elsewhere, the second pillar of European hegemony is brought down.
These arrangements in the peace plan will challenge some of the most sacrosanct articles in the United Nations Charter drafted mostly by the west. It will mark the beginning of a new world order influenced by emerging powers.
The 28 point peace plan and any final agreed one is really a hubris for Europe more than Ukraine. It is the Suez Canal moment for Europe when its power is finally called out and its weakness exposed.
Trump appears to have made his mind up immediately after his inauguration when he indicated to Europe that US was not interested in pumping the European ego anymore with its own finances and resources. He called on them to increase their defence budget and stand up for themselves.
Lately he forced this realism on Europe when he told them o ‘buy’ US arms for Ukraine rather than US donating them. He appears to have got tired of that as well. While Europe flaps, he seems to be saying, ‘The US wants out, you can carry on’. ‘I inherited this unnecessary war,’ he says.
Some European countries would have sent their forces had Russia not had such a formidable nuclear arsenal. Russia repeatedly warned that it will use it if NATO enters the war. So Europeans made several attempts to bring Trump on board their paranoias. It seems he humoured them, met them, even made a few scolding statements at Putin, gave Ukraine some permission to use long range missiles, buts seeing that the European commitment amounted to endless ‘leaders’ meetings and puffed up rhetoric, Trump seems to have decided to call it a day.
The Ukraine peace plan, more than any other end of war peace plans, will mark the end of European period in history. Europeans know it. That is why they are in a shock.
