Author: Seema Guha

Muscular nationalism is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s USP. That policy has paid rich dividends to his party. Some would say the Uri surgical attack and the Balakot air strike, were responsible for the BJP’s comprehensive 2019 election victory.

Buoyed by the success, the government has now scrapped Article 370, and stripped Kashmir of the special status it enjoyed since 1947. Not just that, but the state has been bifurcated and made into two union territories. But, has Modi carried it too far this time? Will this bold act, hugely popular with the rest of the country, come to haunt the BJP in years to come? How this plays out in the valley and in the larger neighbourhood is yet to be determined.

Pakistan has expectedly reacted with shock and anger, calling it a violation of the UN resolution. Islamabad will mount an all-out diplomatic offensive against India. It has downgraded ties with New Delhi, asked Indian High Commissioner Ajay Bisaria to leave and suspended the Samjhauta Express. The little trade there was with India will also stop now. People in Punjab would be worried about what happens to the Kartarpur project, since the bilateral relations have reached such a low point. But that remains to be seen.

India has asked Pakistan to review its decision and said that it was done with an eye to grab international attention and present an “alarming picture to the world.’’ It is well known that the international community is concerned about a possible nuclear flash point in South Asia. Now more than ever, considering the rising tension between the two nuclear armed neighbours.

Islamabad has always maintained that Kashmir is a “disputed’’ territory and a solution to the problem must be worked out between India, Pakistan and the people of Kashmir. Prime Minister Imran Khan has predicted that the freedom movement will gain momentum in the valley. This is certainly a given considering that there has been no consultations with the people at all. Kashmir has also been in lock-down mode since Sunday.

Islamabad has already called for a meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Co-operation (OIC) to discuss the situation in Kashmir. The OIC will certainly issue a statement, but beyond that not much can be expected. India has worked on ties with both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the prime movers of the group. The Gulf states are now engrossed with Iran, Yemen and Syria, in their immediate neighbourhood. The UAE has already backed India. “The reorganisation of states is not a unique incident in history of independent India and it was mainly aimed at reducing regional disparity and improving efficiency. It is an internal matter as stipulated by the Indian Constitution,” Dr Ahmad Al Banna, the UAE’s ambassador to India has said.

Pakistan will also take up Kashmir to the United Nations Security Council. The Human Rights Council in Geneva will also be approached. There will be a flurry of diplomatic activity with Islamabad possibly sending out envoys to world capitals to explain what India’s latest action means. Pakistan expects Kashmir to go up in flames but as of now the heavy military presence has ensured there are no protests in the valley.

Can Pakistan galvanise world opinion against India? Has Delhi handed over Kashmir in a platter to Pakistan? Can India get away with it at a time when each nation is looking out for itself and unlike in the past the liberal values — human rights and moral positions — are no longer at the core of international diplomacy. The liberal world is crumbling and the BJP government must have taken all this into account before going ahead with its latest Kashmir move.

It is but natural that Pakistan will play its Afghan card to the hilt. At a time when the US –Taliban talks have reached a crucial stage, Washington will not wish for distraction on the India-Pakistan front .Pakistan will let the US know that the situation in Kashmir would distract Islamabad and shift its focus from peace moves in Afghanistan to the India-Pakistan border.

PTI reported a State Department spokesman as saying: “The US is closely following India’s legislation regarding the new territorial status and governance of Jammu and Kashmir. We note the broader implications of these developments, including the potential for increased instability in the region.”

Hostile fire across the India-Pakistan border has continued unabated in the last few years. Tension between the nuclear armed neighbours is something Washington does not need at the moment. Prime Minister Imran Khan has already said that a terror strike in the valley now could even provoke a full scale war between the two arch rivals. This is something which will worry the Trump administration. President Donald Trump, facing elections next year wants a complete US troop pull- out before that. A military confrontation between India and Pakistan would be the last thing Washington wants at the moment when an agreement with the Taliban appears imminent. Perhaps with this in India, the US has said there was an “urgent need” for dialogue among all actors to reduce tensions and to avoid a potential military escalation in South Asia. Washington has also asked Pakistan to ensure that infiltration does not occur. This is to make sure that a military confrontation does not take place at this crucial juncture.

The US pointsman for Afghanistan, Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad was in Delhi on Tuesday and briefed foreign minister Jaishankar on the Taliban talks. The Indian minister must have also given the envoy a briefing on India’s recent action regarding Kashmir. Little is known about the talks. From the photograph and relaxed body language of the two, the talks appear to have gone smoothly.

China has already expressed its concern about developments in Kashmir. It has questioned the bifurcation of Ladakh. “China is seriously concerned about the current situation in Kashmir,’’ went on to say that the issue is a legacy of history between India and Pakistan. In a separate statement, the Chinese foreign ministry reacted to India’s decision to create Ladakh as a Union Territory. “China always opposes India’s inclusion of Chinese territory in the western section of the China-India boundary under its administrative jurisdiction,” it said. “This position is firm and consistent and has never changed. The recent unilateral revision of domestic laws by the Indian side continues to undermine China’s territorial sovereignty, which is unacceptable.’’

The MEA has said that the re-organization of the state is India’s internal matter and reminded China that it did not comment on its domestic issues. China faces resistance from local Muslims in Xinjiang, from Dalai Lama’s followers in Tibet, as well as pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong.

With foreign minister S Jaishankar slated to visit China from the 11-13 of the month, this issue will come up for discussion. It is not yet certain how this will pan out with China. But with a trade war on with the US, President Xi Jinping has other more serious issues to worry over.

Two major regional players, Russia and Iran have not yet commented on the latest government move. The world’s appetite for liberation wars, or moral rights and wrongs are no longer as they were earlier. Pakistan’s own credibility is low. Considering all this, while there will be some amount of criticism of India’s actions in Kashmir and China will needle India with this whenever necessary, it will not abruptly overturn the gains of the Wuhan spirit.

More important perhaps is the internal dimensions of the new Kashmir policy. Kashmir valley can be held down by force but at a massive cost. Terrorist attacks will increase in the months and years to come. Hard core jihadi groups will mushroom across the state. The young people have demonstrated earlier how they can face the might of the Indian state. Stone throwing school children will perhaps now take up arms. Kashmiris will feel they have nothing to lose. Few in the valley believe that development will come to the state now that the contentious article 370 is out of the way.

AS Dulat, former RAW chief and the man late prime minister Vajpayee used to help the peace process said in a recent interview that Kashmiris have once again been let down by India. Pakistan will naturally take advantage and continue to stoke the fire. Keeping down a sullen alienated population will not be an easy task for India’s security forces.

Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s first meeting with President Donald Trump was an unqualified success from Islamabad’s point of view. After raving and ranting against Pakistan’s perfidy, Trump was on a charm offensive when Khan arrived at the White House.

Will the rapprochement between the US and Pakistan change equations in South Asia, particularly its ties with India? Much will depend on how much Pakistan can influence the Taliban and whether a political deal materializes in Afghanistan. For now India has to wait and watch how the situation pans out.

Significantly, Pakistan’s Prime Minister was accompanied by both army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa and ISI boss Faiz Hameed for the crucial meeting to reset ties. This perhaps to emphasise that the civilian and military leaders were on the same page and eager to stabilize Pakistan.

The talks centred round Afghanistan as Trump focused on getting Pakistan’s support for a peace deal to “extricate’’ American troops from that country. Trump’s one point agenda at the moment is to quit Afghanistan before Presidential elections next year, to notch up his election promise of ensuring that America is not the world’s policemen, nor is he interested in spreading democracy in far of regions. To do this, he wants Pakistan’s help and Islamabad will play its Afghan card to the hilt in getting Trump to endorse its position vise-a-vise India.

What was a diplomatic victory for Pakistan was mention of Kashmir. The US President declaring he was willing to act as mediator between India and Pakistan. To make things worse Trump said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself had asked him to do so. Hours later India refuted the US President’s claims. This was dismissed by those in the know as a usual Trump-speak with little to do with actual fact. No Indian Prime Minister, be it Modi or anyone else, will ever ask for third party intervention on Kashmir. Mediation is Pakistan’s calling card, not India’s.

The warm meeting at the White House and Trumps take on Kashmir is of some significance to India. For one, Delhi’s rhetoric on isolating Pakistan has come a cropper. Anyway, right from the start the wording was wrong. A country like Pakistan with a population of over 208 million, cannot be isolated from the world. What Delhi meant was that it would talk to the major world powers to show up Pakistan’s role as a terror hub. It was not a difficult task as the world was ready to be convinced.

The US and NATO allies had already experienced Pakistan’s double standards on terror in Afghanistan. At the time when the US and Pakistan were working closely to arm and train the Mujahideen to fight Russian occupation of Afghanistan, the US and its allies were stone deaf to Indian arguments on Pakistan based terror groups working against India in Kashmir and aiming to bleed India through these terror outfits. Is there a chance that the old narrative would occur again? Unlikely, as the Pakistan army has exposed itself blatantly in Afghanistan. But Trump can block all this out if necessary to get cooperation on the Taliban. And Islamabad knows that.

Afghanistan will be used smartly by Pakistan to get itself out of its current quagmire. Trump’s strategy is not long term. For the moment he is focused on getting his troops out of Afghanistan, and for that he is willing to play ball with Imran Khan. If Pakistan cannot deliver Trump may revert back to his old ways and blame Pakistan, but for now he will give Islamabad a long rope. Yet having had excellent ties in the past, and worked closely with the Pakistan army, many lawmakers in the US, especially the revived Pakistan Caucus in the US, believe that by withdrawing from that country, America has left a vacuum which is being filled by China. They would bat for more engagement.

Trump has little interest in Kashmir or charges of human rights abuse there. But he would be open to the idea of India and Pakistan resuming their stalled dialogue to reassure the GHQ in Rawalpindi,that they need not worry about India, but concentrate on getting the Taliban to talk to the Afghan government representatives. So there will be pressure for India and Pakistan to normalize ties. At the moment Narendra Modi will do little, as he would draw flak from the opposion as well as hardliners within his support base. The mediation request that Trump spoke of would be revived if he does so immediately.

But Modi is not averse to the idea of talks. He tried his hand at peace making during his first tenure. Delhi would like to wait and watch to see if Pakistan’s crack down on terror outfits is for real and not because of the fear of the Paris based Financial Action Task Force, placing the country on the black list. Pakistan’s case will come up for review in October. Few in India believe that Imran Khan could be in any position to make much of a difference. So Modi would be merely wasting his time and energy by engaging with Islamabad. Many within the RSS and BJP believe that the only way to deal with Pakistan is to strengthen India’s defences and hit back hard whenever a terror attack occurs. For the rest of the time, Pakistan can be ignored.

That is a limiting view. The world wants India to engage with Pakistan. Apart from the US, China, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Russia and the EU all want temperatures to come down between the two nuclear armed neighbours. A South Asia where India and Pakistan have normal ties, the region would be much more stable.

But even if talks are resumed, would it lead to any breakthrough? For the moment it is hard to imagine. Positions on either side are cast in stone on Kashmir. A blue print is actually already in place to initiate the process. President Pervez Musharraf was pragmatic enough to agree to the Loc becoming the border, better trade and connectivity between the two Kashmir’s and more people to people contacts would be a good way to begin. But before Musharraf could work on the formula, the lawyers agitation distracted him and the proposals were never seriously discussed afterwards. Successive Pakistani governments have thrashed the idea and Musharraf since being out of power has also disowned it.

Whether a final solution emerges or not, dialogue must be resumed. Firing across the LoC must stop. Civilians on both sides are sadly affected. India should not continue to oppose SAARC. It is not fair to the rest of the member states.

The government needs to focus on jobs and development if Modi’s ambitions of making India a five trillion dollar economy is to be achieved in the next few years. He and the entire country need to focus on the economy. That can happen only when the neighbourhood is at peace.

Will President Donald Trump’s obsession for reworking trade deals affect India-US ties? Is Trump ignoring the big picture for a quick fix solution to please his support base and losing the good will of new friends like India and old allies France and Germany in Europe?

The Modi-Trump meeting last week focused on both trade and Iran, two things uppermost in the US President’s mind at the moment. No breakthrough was expected on any of the niggling issues that has troubled ties between the two countries in recent months. But after all the hard work put in by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar to smoothen a bilateral platform, Donald Trump once again sullied the atmosphere.

The US President tweeted about high India’s high tariffs before leaving Washington for the G20 summit in Japan, where a meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi was scheduled: “I look forward to speaking with Prime Minister Modi about the fact that India, for years having put very high Tariffs against the United States, just recently increased the Tariffs even further. This is unacceptable and the Tariffs must be withdrawn!”

But India and the world is now used to Trump’s style of diplomacy, and taken this in its stride. Perhaps this is Trump’s way of putting pressure on Modi ahead of their meeting. Trump should know that Narendra Modi, now riding a popularity wave in India will obviously not be cowed down.

Pompeo’s trip to India was an attempt to smoothen the wrinkles in ties. Much of this has to do with President Donald Trump’s political message to his support base, to re-work trade ties and ensure that America is not taken for a ride. Meaning every other President before Trump has not bothered to look after America’s trade interests. In the process Trump has lumped Delhi with Beijing, though America’s trade deficit with India is a mere $24.2 billion (2018 figures), compared to $621 billion with China the same year. Putting India and China in the same bracket, as Trump keeps doing in his numerous tweets on trade issues is foolish to say the least.

The Trump administration increased tariff on aluminum and steel last year impacted India’s export to the US. India did not retaliate. Washington earlier this year ended the duty-free import from India under the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP). That was done in the middle of the election campaign. India responded recently by increasing tariff on 28 items, mostly agricultural products that it imports from the US. This has angered President Trump.

Significantly, Eliot Engel, Chairman of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee, wrote to Pompeo ahead of his Delhi trip saying that the Trump administration seemed to be coercing India on various issues instead of sitting across the table and negotiating with Delhi. As Engel pointed out, while most of the statements made about being defence partner and friends with India were all good, the administration’s actions did not match its laudatory comments. Both the Republican and Democrats support stronger ties with India.

 In his public statements, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has made all the right noises to flatter and disarm India as Jaishankar prepared the groundwork for the Modi-Trump meeting.

In fact, the process started when Pompeo delivered a major speech at the India-US business forum ahead of his two-day visit to India. Pompeo quoted Modi’s election slogan “Modi hai tu Mumkin Hai.’ And translated it as “Modi makes it possible. I’m looking forward to exploring what’s possible between our two peoples.” Flattering Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a good way to start the dialogue.

But no one need be fooled by the sweet talk, as the US drives a hard bargain. Pompeo put enormous pressure on India to concede. The Secretary of State known as a hawk on Iran, is hoping to shore up support for the US position as war clouds loom over West Asia. He described Iran as the “biggest sponsor of terror”, a claim that Delhi certainly does not agree with. Iran came up for detailed discussion during his talks with Jaishankar. India raised the issue of oil supplies. Aware of the consequences of doing business with Iran, India has stopped buying oil from Tehran.

The good news is that the two sides are taking stock of the hiccups in relations and are ready to discuss them further. “On some outstanding issues related to trade, I pushed for a constructive and pragmatic view. The real test of our intentions will be our ability to deal with this,” Dr Jaishankar said, at a news conference with Pompeo after talks on Thursday.

But India has clearly drawn the red lines. On certain issues which affect India’s strategic interests there would be no compromise. That message has gone out clearly to Washington.

But it is not just trade. Political issues like Iran and purchase of S400 missile defence system from Russia goes against American interests. Jaishankar has made it clear that India will not change its stand on five billion dollar S400 purchase order from Russia.

Luckily, Washington does not hold all the cards. At a time when the US-China trade war is on and Trump’s aggressive stand on Iran and the threat of war which can disrupt oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz is making all countries nervous. Prime Minister Modi is not just meeting Trump on the sidelines of the G20, meetings are also lined up with China’s Xi Jinping as well as a meeting of BRICS leaders, which means Russia’s Vladimir Putin and President’s of South Africa and Brazil. A Chinese official was also reported as saying that Xi will discuss US protectionist policies and how the world can counter this at the BRICS informal get together on the sidelines of G20. India and China, together with France and Germany are vocal critics of Trumps protectionist trade policies.

Modi’s meeting with Xi is important, and a Wuhan type of informal summit is being planned later this year in India. Perhaps as a signal to China, Jaishankar made the point. “We had also a talk of – over lunch on the Indo-Pacific. On the Indo-Pacific, the point – the big point I made was that the Indo-Pacific is for something, not against somebody. And that something is peace, security, stability, prosperity, and rules.” This is certainly India’s attempt to reassure China that Delhi is not ganging up with the US against Beijing.

In brief India-US relations are expanding in ways which were not conceivable in earlier decades. The momentum which began with the landmark civil nuclear deal is gathering speed. But India, much like the US will look out for its strategic interests and guard its space. America knows well that India is no push-over. India however also knows that having US on your side opens doors. The Modi government is looking to US for investments. So during negotiations localization of data, the new e-commerce rules that affect US companies like Amazon and Walmart, will come up for discussion. The US and India will agree on certain issues but not on all. There will be give and take on trade. The relations are on track yet there will be flare-ups now and then which Jaishankar and his MEA team will have to fire fight. Overall however ties are on course.