Tag: Bashar al-Assad

Erdogan

Turkey’s Twin Game Plan In Syria

By Prosenjit Nath

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not hide his delight at the rapid trends in Syria, his neighbor, under the shadow of Istanbul’s minarets. Erdogan proclaimed a “new reality” in Syria and underlined that “Syria belongs to Syrians with all its ethnic, confessional, and spiritual elements” in remarks to reporters following prayers.

This declaration no longer solely marked a diplomatic turnaround however additionally underlined Turkey’s multifaceted function in the Syrian struggle — a position described with the aid of its assistance for opposition forces and simultaneous engagement with NATO and Russia.

Syria has been a battlefield where many international pastimes have collided for more than ten years, with Turkey playing a crucial role. Ankara has long supported Syrian opposition corporations searching to overthrow the Russian and Iranian-backed regime of Bashar al-Assad.

This help was once a section of Turkey’s broader intention to affect the effect of the Syrian struggle in the desire of authorities that ought to ensure the protection of its borders and forestall autonomy for Kurdish groups.

However, Turkey’s involvement is difficult by using its role as a NATO member, regularly inserting it at odds with Assad’s different key ally, Russia. Despite this, Erdogan has managed to preserve members of the family with Moscow and navigate the complicated geopolitical panorama with a method that on occasion aligns with Russian pastimes and every so often goes towards them.

Initially, Turkey’s approach towards Syria centered on stopping Kurdish forces from organizing a contiguous territory alongside its border. This difficulty for the Kurdish militia Yekineyen Parastina Gel (YPG), which Turkey considers a terrorist team linked to the PKK or the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, has been a used aspect at the back of its army interventions in northern Syria.

The scenario escalated with the latest speedy rebellion successes in key Syrian cities such as Aleppo and Hama, which show up to have been carried out with at least tacit Turkish approval.

Erdogan has many times referred to as on Assad to negotiate, however, these overtures have been rejected. Erdogan also recalled that he had invited Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to talk quite a few instances to “determine the future of Syria together”. However, Assad did now not reply favorably to such a meeting.

Turkish overseas minister Hakan Fidan visited Damascus twice, and talent chief Ibrahim Kalin held several rounds of negotiations with his Syrian counterpart with the assistance of Chinese and Russian mediation efforts. Shortly after China settled Saudi Arabia and Iran, the dates for Assad’s go to Ankara had been additionally set. Assad, however, conceded and stipulated that the Turkish military must first leave Syrian territory.

This angered Russia, which used to be searching for an honorable withdrawal from Syria to pay attention to Ukraine, as properly as China. When Hezbollah vacated its positions close to Idlib on November 15, they had been taken through US-backed Kurdish companies adversarial to Turkey. This precipitated Turkey to order Syrian opposition companies to expel the Kurdish forces from these positions. Turkey supplied air aid for this operation.

When they superior and occupied the positions previously held via Hezbollah and now held by way of Kurdish agencies on November 27, they were amazed to meet no resistance. The Syrian military had disbanded after the withdrawal of Hezbollah, comparable to the Afghan troops underneath Ashraf Ghani when the US ceased its air support.

Erdogan’s capability to stabilize Turkey’s members of the family with each NATO and Russia is a hallmark of his overseas policy. By keeping open channels with each bloc, he has located Turkey as a crucial mediator on numerous worldwide issues, which include the Syrian conflict.

This balancing act was once especially evident when Turkey performed a central position in facilitating the Ukrainian Grain Corridor agreement, which served NATO’s hobbies whilst preserving the Bosphorus sea open to Russian ships, appeasing Moscow.

The position of Turkish talent in monitoring and facilitating operations in Syria was once crucial. As mentioned in the Hurriyet newspaper, Turkey under the management of Ibrahim Kalin and the National Intelligence Organisation, has meticulously organized several actions in Syria via diplomatic and brain efforts. This coaching consists of strategically deploying belongings on the floor to make sure Ankara is continually one step beforehand in the creating situation.

Omer Ozkizilcik, a Non-Resident Fellow for the Syria Project at the Atlantic Council, emphasized Turkey’s strategic position: “Even although Turkey was once no longer at once involved, its inexperienced mild for the offensive used to be based totally on its core pursuits in Syria. As a result, Turkey has now placed itself as the most influential overseas actor in the country.” This effect is a direct result of Turkey’s energetic engagement and strategic foresight in managing its involvement in Syria.

President Erdogan’s latest statements and movements in Syria replicate a state-of-the-art method aimed at maximizing Turkey’s impact on the consequence of the struggle whilst balancing its worldwide relations.

The frontlines of the Syrian civil warfare remained generally unchanged given that 2020, despite occasional fierce skirmishes. For the previous 4 years, President Assad has had a lot of the country, such as primary cities, below his control.

In the meantime, an alliance of broadly speaking Islamist rebels led using Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and tolerated using Turkey had constrained itself to an enclave in Idlib and components of the rural areas west of Aleppo. In addition, Turkish forces and Turkish-backed militias managed a phase of the former Kurdish territory alongside the border to the north of Aleppo. In north-east Syria, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), allies of the US in the combat in opposition to the jihadist team Islamic State, have been working mostly independently.

The current offensive has modified this state of affairs considerably, even if its outcomes are hard to predict. The twin method of navy help for the opposition and diplomatic engagement with world powers has put Turkey in a special role in navigating the complicated geopolitical panorama of the Middle East.

Turkey hosts 3.5 million Syrian refugees. Currently, Turkey is in the midst of a financial disaster and rising inflation suggests no signs and symptoms of abating. The Turkish forex is presently depreciating swiftly in opposition to the dollar. Food inflation is at its highest, which is placing stress on the population. The return of Syrian refugees may want to provide Erdogan with an increase and enable him to get the financial system back on track.

However, the worldwide neighborhood continues to screen the state of affairs in Syria closely, as it is aware that Turkey’s movements will considerably affect the region’s future balance and direction. The key query remains: will Damascus descend into chaos like Baghdad after the fall of Saddam Hussein or will there be a peaceable transition of power?

(The writer is a technocrat, political analyst, and author. He covers national, geopolitical, and social issues. The views expressed are his own. His social media handle is @prosenjitnth)

Syria – Roots of Unrest And What Lies Ahead

By Asad Mirza

After 13 years, it seems that the civil war in Syria might be over, with news of President Basher Al-Assad overthrown by a coalition of anti-government coalition and major Syrian cities in control of the coalition. However, this victory has another fallout, that of the rise of Islamists in Syria.

The so-called Islamic Coalition in Syria is led by a coalition consisting of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), which is the most prominent and formidable of the group, the Syrian National Army (SNA), which incorporates dozens of factions with various ideologies that receive funding and arms from Turkey is another coalition partner. It also includes the National Liberation Front, comprising factions like Ahrar Al-Sham whose stated aims are to “overthrow the (Assad) regime” and “establish an Islamic state governed by Sharia law.”

What complicates matters further is the fact that some members of the rebel coalition are also fighting Kurdish forces. The Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army said last week it had seized control of the city of Tal Rifaat and other towns and villages in the northern part of the Aleppo governorate.

Those territories were previously held not by Assad’s government but by another faction involved in the multi-front civil war: the Syrian Democratic Forces. The SDF are largely made up of Kurdish fighters from a group known as the Peoples’ Protection Units (YPG), which is considered a terrorist organisation by Turkey.

In Syria’s south, fighters from the country’s Druze religious minority have also joined the fight, who are fighting in the southern city of As-Suwayda, which borders the Daraa province, where opposition forces claim to have taken control of Daraa city.

This complicated consolidation of rebel forces leads one to wonder what will happen now, when so many ideologically different factions are partners in power, will HTS be able to reign them or will it lead to another war of spoils?

The Syrian Saga

The Syrian tragedy dates back to 1970s, when Basher’s father Hafez Al-Assad owing roots to the Alawi minority, a heterodox Shia sect that had long been persecuted in Syria and was elevated to privileged positions under the post–World War I French mandate seized control from a Baathist military junta in 1970, centralising power in the presidency.

In February 1982, Hafez Al-Assad ordered the military to put down a Muslim Brotherhood uprising in the city of Hama with brute force. Syrian forces killed more than twenty-five thousand people there, allegedly using chemical weapons. For the regime’s opponents, Hama became a rallying cry in 2011.

With rebel forces now inside the Syrian capital Damascus, and reports that President Bashar Al-Assad has fled the country, anti-government forces appear to have brought about the end of his regime less than a fortnight after their lightning offensive began.

Islamist fighters took control of the northern city of Aleppo in late November before swinging south through Hama and Homs – areas previously under government control. In southern Syria, close to the Jordanian border, local rebels have captured most of the Deraa region, the birthplace of the 2011 uprising against Assad.

In many instances, it is reported that the Syrian military either left their posts or defected to the opposition. The initial attack was led by the Islamist militant group HTS – which has a long and involved history in the Syrian conflict. HTS is designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN, US, Turkey and other countries.

Who are the rebels?

HTS was set up under a different name, Jabhat al-Nusra, in 2011 as a direct affiliate of Al Qaeda. The leader of the self-styled Islamic State (IS) group, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, was also involved in its formation. It was regarded as one of the most effective and deadly of the groups ranged against President Assad.

But its jihadist ideology appeared to be its driving force rather than revolutionary zeal – and it was seen at the time as at odds with the main rebel coalition under the banner of Free Syria.

In 2016, the HTS leader, Abu Mohammed Al-Jawlani, publicly broke ranks with Al Qaeda, dissolved Jabhat al-Nusra and set up a new organisation, which took the name Hayat Tahrir al-Sham when it merged with several other similar groups a year later.

For some time now, HTS has established its power base in the north-western province of Idlib where it is the de facto local administration, although its efforts towards legitimacy have been tarnished by alleged human rights abuses. It has also been involved in some bitter infighting with other groups.

Since breaking with Al Qaeda, its goal has been limited to trying to establish fundamentalist Islamic rule in Syria rather than a wider caliphate, as IS tried and failed to do. It had shown little sign of attempting to reignite the Syrian conflict on a major scale and renew its challenge to Assad’s rule over much of the country – until now.

The United States was at the forefront of a coalition conducting air strikes on the self-proclaimed Islamic State, but it abruptly pulled back some of its forces in 2019 ahead of an invasion of northern Syria by Turkey.

Since then, the Turkish military has pushed Kurdish forces, the United States’ main local partner in the fight against the Islamic State, from border areas. Russia, too, has carried out air strikes in Syria, coming to the Assad regime’s defence. Iranian forces and their Hezbollah allies have done the same on the ground, inadvertently making themselves the targets of strikes by Iran’s enemy Israel.

Iran has been a close ally to the Assad government throughout the 13-year Syrian civil war. There are reports that Iran has ordered its forces to withdraw from Syria, after the latest offensive by the coalition, this comes in the background of Moscow showing its unwillingness to support Assad amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

President Bashar al-Assad’s rule had essentially been uncontested in the country’s major cities, while some other parts of Syria remained out of his direct control. These include Kurdish majority areas in the east, which have been more or less separate from Syrian state control since the early years of the conflict.

Meanwhile, the American president-elect Donald Trump has said that the US should avoid engaging militarily in Syria, according to AP. The president-elect’s first extensive comments on the dramatic rebel push came on Saturday via his social media website, when he wrote, “This is NOT our Fight”. But how long the US remains a mute spectator in view of the emerging clout of the coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, remains to be seen.

(Asad Mirza is a New Delhi-based senior commentator on national, international, defence & strategic affairs, an interfaith practitioner and a media consultant.)