Tag: Bihar Elections 2025

How Congress Agreed To Toe RJD Line In Battle For Bihar!

By Sidharth MIshra

In the run-up to the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections Congress had created the hope taking a fresh stand vis-à-vis Rashtriya Janata Dal and presenting a new image in the state’s political battlefield. However, neither the political landscape of Bihar nor its electorate seemed particularly eager to embrace this change.

The young team entrusted with understanding and assessing the reality of this so-called transformation failed to fulfil its task. Gradually, Congress found itself pushed to the back foot as the father-son duo of Lalu-Tejaswi Yadav stood firm deciding the final allocation of seats within the alliance.

The party’s state in-charge Krishna Allavaru and its student body’s national in charge, Kanhaiya Kumar had had set out with big ambitions. Well before the elections, they launched the “Give Jobs, Stop Migration” campaign, whose entire blueprint was drawn up at Sadaqat Ashram (the Bihar Congress headquarters).

These moves were made with taking RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav into confidence. When it came to identifying potential constituencies, around 140 seats were marked and sent to RJD from Sadaqat Ashram itself. Later, when talks of contesting and seat-sharing began, Congress forwarded a list of 71 constituencies, which even included some of RJD’s sitting seats.

Congress in making such moves tried to shed the tag of being RJD’s B-Team” and reclaim its own legacy base, comprising Muslims, Dalits, and upper castes. Krishna Allavaru and Kanhaiya Kumar tried to rebuild Congress from the ground up. Even Rahul Gandhi, during his “Adhikar Yatra,” attempted to assess the strength of the Bihar unit. But Congress strategists failed to communicate one critical finding from their internal surveys that the party could not survive without RJD’s support base.

The traditional Congress vote of Muslims, Dalits, and upper castes today stand fragmented. Muslims largely stood with RJD, especially after the Waqf Board Amendment controversy. Upper castes continue to back BJP, and in the event of disenchantment Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj was the option they looked up to.

Dalits were divided among various leaders and factions, the Dusadh (Paswan) community (about 5%) sided with Chirag Paswan, while the Ravidas voters were split among Congress, RJD and a few local leaders. In such a fragmented scenario, returning to the back foot became an inevitable compulsion for Congress.

In a tough bargain, RJD leadership further pointed out that since several other allies had joined, both RJD and Congress would have to reduce their seat share. When Congress later presented a revised list of 61 constituencies, it had already given up claims on several seats where it had lost narrowly in the previous election.

When the Congress’s political experiment did not make way, party brought in senior leader and former Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, known as a shrewd strategist with long-standing ties to Lalu Prasad Yadav to end the stalemate. Eventually, seat-sharing reverted to the formula originally proposed by Lalu Prasad Yadav himself. Congress having accepted to project Tejaswi Yadav as the Chief Ministerial face, has in its own way, put the onus on the RJD leadership to push a concerted and forceful campaign for the alliance in a battle which for now looks like going neck and neck.

(The writer is an established Author, Academic and President of the Centre for Reforms, Development & Justice)

With Tejashwi As Spearhead, INDIA Bloc Is Battle Ready

By Sidharth MIshra

The Grand Alliance (Mahagathbandhan) has finally declared Tejashwi Yadav as its chief ministerial candidate for the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections. The decision came after prolonged deliberations and internal tussles, mainly over seat-sharing between the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).

The last leg of discussion was between senior Congress leader Ashok Gehlot and RJD patriarch Lalu Prasad Yadav. Announcement of the name of Tejashwi Yadav by Gehlot has provided ammunition to the campaign which was looking to be running out of fuel for some time.

The consensus on Tejashwi Yadav’s name has for sure sent out a message of unity among the INDIAlliance partner parties, which form the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar. The focus for the past few days had remained on the Congress and the RJD, as the real contention lay between them over seat distribution and the chief ministerial post.

The delay in the announcement had increased uncertainty within the alliance. A few days earlier, Mukesh Sahani had remarked that the alliance was “a little unwell,” indicating internal disagreements.

Although the Congress never directly opposed Tejashwi’s candidature, it also refrained from openly endorsing him. In fact, people in Bihar had already assumed that Tejashwi would be the face of the alliance — the official announcement was seen as a mere formality.

One major reason for the delay was Congress’s demand for a larger and more winnable share of seats. In the previous Assembly election, Congress contested 70 seats but managed to win only 19. This time, the party wanted both a better seat share and stronger constituencies, which prolonged the negotiations. Eventually, the partners agreed that projecting unity under Tejashwi’s leadership was crucial to avoid losing political momentum.

Still, there may be some instances of “friendly fights,” where allies may contest against each other in a few constituencies with mutual understanding. Nevertheless by finalizing its CM face, the Grand Alliance has attempted to catch up with the NDA, which had gained an early edge by announcing its seat-sharing arrangement.

Incidentally, this is the first election in two decades where Nitish Kumar, although leading the NDA campaign, is not projected as its chief ministerial face. The Grand Alliance hopes that declaring a clear leader will help them put pressure on the NDA.

This election is unique in several ways. While Nitish Kumar’s government has been making a series of promises and policy announcements, Tejashwi Yadav has also rolled out an array of assurances to the electorate. The Grand Alliance’s manifesto, scheduled for release on October 28, after the Chhath festivities, is expected to feature several major promises.

Although, as mentioned earlier, some friction still persists between the Congress and the RJD over seat-sharing, the alliance has managed to present a united front. Mukesh Sahani’s earlier remarks had hinted at tensions, but the final consensus on Tejashwi’s name marks a major forward move for the Grand Alliance both symbolically and strategically, as it conveys an image of cohesion to the electorate.

On the other hand, while the NDA has already announced its seat allocations, it has refrained from naming any single CM candidate. This is a significant shift since Nitish Kumar has been the face of the alliance for nearly twenty years. By naming Tejashwi as their chief ministerial face, the Grand Alliance has tried to mount psychological and political pressure on the NDA.

The Bihar election this time holds exceptional significance. Both sides are competing through promises and programs — with Nitish Kumar banking on governance and continuity, and Tejashwi Yadav appealing to aspirations and change. The upcoming manifesto on October 28 is likely to outline Tejashwi’s vision for Bihar.

The key question now is: which set of promises will the people of Bihar trust — and who will emerge as the next Chief Minister?

(The writer is an established Author, Academic and President of the Centre for Reforms, Development & Justice)

To Ban Or Not To Ban – That Is The Question In Bihar!

By Sidharth MIshra

Amidst the political buzz of the Bihar Assembly elections, Prashant Kishor, the new factor in the campaign, has promised to lift the alcohol ban. This has gained attention and is being widely discussed among the public, even though politicians remain largely silent about it.

The alcohol prohibition law has been in force in Bihar since 2016. It was a major issue in the 2020 Assembly elections as well. At that time, it was believed that the prohibition benefited Nitish Kumar, especially since women were happy with the decision, which was reflected in the voting patterns. This time too, the ban is being discussed, even though the ruling NDA leaders are avoiding public discussions on the topic.

This begs the question: What is it that the poll strategist in Prashant Kishor sees an opportunity in raking up the matter about scrapping a law which in the past seems to have benefitted the ruling establishment, his rivals in the poll? A close scrutiny would show that the Jan Suraaj Party leader is addressing those who have been affected by the law and those who have benefitted from it, the poor and low caste women.

The complaint about implementation of the law is largely against the police and excise department officials. The enforcement agencies are accused of prosecuting the consumer for illegally marketed alcohol and not the sellers, who are believed to pay heavily to ‘buy the license to sell.’

The general refrain is that an alcohol bottle that was used to be available for ₹200 earlier is now delivered at home ₹500. It is said, and not without reason, that this is the cost for the safe home delivery of liquor. Everyone, it is believed, knows whom to call and what to say to get alcohol delivered directly to their home.

But then, there is the community consisting women across caste, economic class and region, which silently supports it. It should not be forgotten that the whole movement demanding ban on sale and consumption of alcohol was led by a woman of lowly Mushar community from rural Bihar.

While women initially celebrated prohibition, many now see that the law’s implementation has bred corruption and victimized their own families. Thousands of households have seen male members arrested, and families driven further into poverty and hardships. Kishor’s pitch, therefore, is not merely a call to “lift the ban,” but to “end hypocrisy” – to frame prohibition as a failed, exploitative, and class-biased policy.

For the ruling NDA, especially Nitish Kumar, prohibition remains a delicate issue. While women still symbolically support it, its enforcement failures make open discussion politically risky. BJP allies, on the other hand, have privately expressed frustration over the law’s unpopularity in rural areas but maintain silence publicly to avoid alienating women voters.

Despite high degree of criticism (higher than it actually deserves), prohibition continues to enjoy a moral constituency, particularly among rural women. For them, it symbolizes dignity, peace at home, and control over family income. They see it as a measure of social justice and equality, especially in a patriarchal society where women’s voices are often muted.

It is also important to note that alcohol-related abuse, crime, and health issues had reached alarming levels in Bihar before prohibition. Lifting the ban without a robust system of regulated sale and awareness could risk a relapse into that chaos.

The call to scrap prohibition in Bihar touches upon deep questions of morality, governance, and political pragmatism. The law, while borne out of genuine social reform, has degenerated into a system that punishes the poor, enriches the corrupt, and drains state resources. Prashant Kishor’s challenge is therefore not limited only to Nitish Kumar’s policy but to the very idea that symbolic morality can replace effective governance.

Scrapping prohibition outright might be politically risky, but reforming it is both necessary and inevitable. A nuanced, balanced policy – one that respects women’s rights, curbs corruption, and restores economic rationality – would be the truly prudent decision for Bihar’s future.

(The writer is an established Author, Academic and President of the Centre for Reforms, Development & Justice)

Who Moved Your Vote?

By Amit Sengupta

If crowds indeed are an indication, a deep churning is happening. Will it translate into votes? No one knows.

However, it is time that in a Hindi heartland largely in the grip of retrograde Hindutva, Bihar shows the revolutionary way, as in the past.

The 16-day long Vote Adhikaar Yatra, led by Rahul Gandhi (RG), with Tejashwi Yadav along, has attracted tens of thousands of supporters. This is just about the first phase, and the huge crowd in Gaya, Nawada and other towns could be an indicator of a manthan, beyond the entrenched caste equations.

With Nitish Kumar’s credibility having sunk to abysmal levels, and unconfirmed reports that he is ailing, his erstwhile base among the EBC and Pasmanda Muslims might be on shaky ground. And with the BJP top brass now in the rat-trap of ‘vote chori’, and after having failed in all fronts, it is not going to be easy for this opportunistic alliance.

RJD remains the largest party in the Bihar assembly. It’s ‘Muslim-Yadav (MY)’ base remains intact – though it has to expand, especially among the EBC, Dalits and minorities. They have to break the steadfast Nitish-vote bank, because the upper caste vote, feudal landlords etc, largely, will stay with the BJP.

The Congress has a limited base in the state, but the large rallies might boost the alliance. And with the ideologically committed CPI-ML (Liberation) as ally, with its solid constituency in the margins, a formidable coalition can, indeed, become an electoral reality.

RG, in his trademark white T-shirt, and the swirling, excited crowd of people waving Congress and RJD flags, reminds of the stupendous success of the Bharat Jodo Yatra from Kanyakumari to Kashmir. It catapulted the Congress leader into national limelight for months, which decisively broke the nightmarish atmosphere of State terror, the entrenched phobia in the civil society (ED raids, jailed young scholars, clampdown on dissent etc), amid organized media censorship.

The Yatra also created a refreshing discourse of ‘Mohabbat ki Dukaan’, amid an atmosphere of hate and fear. The positive message sent shivers down the spine of a dictatorial regime, which, apart from the politics of polarization, had seriously damaged the basic tenets and essence of Indian democracy.

The Red Book (not the ‘Mao Red Book’) of our Constitution became the weapon in the hands of RG. The values and vision of the freedom movement, its secular and progressive ideals, became the doctrine of this ‘Satyagraha on foot’.

Thousands across the country took time off from work and home to join this great experiment in solidarity, including women, youngsters, senior citizens, celebrities, and citizens from all hues of the vast Indian kaleidoscope. It was a glorious celebration of the inherent ethos of unity and diversity, embedded early in our childhood consciousness through school text books, as much as a defiance against the one-dimensional, shallow, fear-driven hate machine of Hindutva.

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Undoubtedly, ‘Vote Chori’, the propaganda blitz started by Rahul Gandhi, and with intentions as noble as they can get, has struck a deep chord with the people. The campaign started with irrefutable evidence, while the government seems to have turned speechless – as in Manipur, or Donald Trump claiming a ceasefire.

Or, the Pahalgam murders.

Indeed, the most uncomfortable questions have not been answered. As always.

How come there was not one cop, a security apparatus, and check points, in an extremely popular tourist hub in a highly fortified conflict zone, when the terrorists struck in Pahalgam with the cold-blooded killings of Indian men? And thereby comfortably escape? Jammu and Kashmir, after all, is now a Union Territory, directly under the government in Delhi.

Who were the terrorists and why have they not been caught till this day – and how did this major intelligence failure allowed to happen?

How many aircraft were lost by India, including the multi-million, state-of-the art, French fighter aircraft called Rafael, and why?

Why, not a word has been uttered on China, which was reportedly remote-controlling the Pakistani counter-attack, and successfully so?

Why did Mr M’s regime allow Donald Trump to hijack what has been for decades a bilateral issue? Did he or did he not, stop the war?

As for the muscle-flexing and fake news in the stooge media, with sirens blowing inside the studios, and Islamabad captured etc, it all became a magnificent box office flop.

Mr M’s emotional rhetoric on Operation Sindoor bombed in the face of the unanswered questions. (Talking of Pulwama – the difficult questions still remain — unresolved.)

Meanwhile, skeletons are toppling over all over the place, and many more might emerge. Data as evidence, voters whose names mysteriously disappeared, voters with bizarre names, one room address with hundreds of listed voters, houses with numbers such as 0, the same voters listed in several constituencies, one 128year-old woman voter, dead voters suddenly appearing as living human beings, the strange public conduct of the EC chairman, the uncanny silence of the last EC chairman, the Supreme Court’s judgment on 65 lakh voters (not a low number) – things are not at all hunky dory for what is being called the ‘B’ team of the BJP.

As CPM MP John Brittas said: “Gyanesh Kumar has spoken at least one fact and truth. He said that crores of people are on the streets, they don’t have houses. So, their house number is 0… Will he say there are crores of people who do not have parents, they are orphans, and that’s why their parents’ name is ABCDEFG? He has to explain that also.”

He said the EC should merge with the BJP. “Why should we need to pay so much of taxes to run such institutions that are a B team of the political party?”

Meanwhile, reports have emerged asking uncanny questions on the Maharashtra elections, again, first raised by Rahul Gandhi in a newspaper article. Before the assembly elections in the state, observers believed that after the surprising defeat of the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections here, the assembly polls will reflect a similar trend in certain constituencies. However, the BJP victory took them by surprise. Now the bitter reality seems to be sinking fast.

Media reports are quoting the findings by Vote for Democracy (VFD), a civic action group led by eminent experts. It has been released with analysis of each of the 288 constituencies in the Maharastra assembly. The findings are disturbing.

The report is titled Dysfunctional ECI and Weaponisation of India’s Election System, and is based on official data released by the Election Commission of India (ECI) and Chief Electoral Officer (CEO). It also encapsulates discussions with voters, polling staff, etc.

VFD has distinguished experts: M.G. Devasahayam, IAS (retired), Coordinator of Citizens’ Commission on Elections, Pyara Lal Garg, former Dean, Panjab University, Madhav Deshpande, specialist in computer software and architecture, and Professor Harish Karnick, former Professor, Computer Science, IIT-Kanpur.

The report (released August 16, 2025) states that in the November 2024 elections, Maharashtra witnessed a late surge voter turnout. At 5 pm, voter turnout stood at 58.22%, but by midnight it had risen to 66.05. This is a huge rise of 7.83% — that is, as many as 48 lakh extra votes. Nanded, Solapur, Beed, Jalgaon, Hingoli and Dhule recorded double-digit spikes. It has been observed that over the years such late surges have been very rare.

Many seats were decided by extremely small margins. As many as 25 seats were won just about 3,000 votes or less, and 69 seats by fewer than 10,000 votes, says VFD. This is a pointer that small shifts can mark a decisive change in the final outcome. There are other findings that cast a shadow on the poll results.

Clearly, if alleged vote fraud has happened, this ‘EVM’ phenomenon has to be thoroughly investigated and exposed. A vote fraud means that those who have done it, and successfully so, they will do it again. That means, to retain illegitimate power, they can go to any extent.

Democracy, overnight, can turn into a dictatorship.

The intelligent voter in Bihar, as in other places, seems to have sensed this diabolical and dangerous reality. Hence, the huge upsurge in the RG rallies.