Tag: Bihar Elections 2025

Yogi Adityanath: BJP’s Silent Finisher in Bihar Elections

By Sidharth MIshra

Since the setback suffered by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the party has treated every subsequent state election as an opportunity to regain political momentum and organizational cohesion. What has followed is a series of carefully strategized assembly poll campaigns in which the BJP has performed with renewed discipline, clarity of purpose, and a well-defined division of responsibilities.

Much like a cricket team recovering from an unexpected setback, the party has relied on each leader playing a defined role in its electoral innings. And in this metaphorical T20 match, one leader has quietly emerged as the dependable finisher – Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.

Often described as a firebrand figure and regarded by many as a polarizing personality, Yogi Adityanath has nonetheless established himself as one of the BJP’s most effective mass mobilisers in the Hindi heartland. His ability to draw crowds, transmit crisp messaging with clarity, and consolidate the core Hindu vote has made him indispensable in closely contested state battles.

This influence was particularly visible in the elections in Haryana and more recently in Bihar, both of which came at crucial moments for the party as it sought to rebuild post-May 2024. A centrepiece of Yogi’s campaign slogan has been his now oft-quoted slogan, “Baṭoge to kaṭoge” (If you are divided, you will be diminished.) The phrase has resonated deeply in regions where caste identities have traditionally overshadowed broader community considerations.

Bihar, perhaps more than any other state, has historically been synonymous with caste-borne political mobilisation. Yet, in the 2025 assembly polls, Yogi Adityanath’s pitch attempted to shift the axis of political consolidation from caste affiliations to a shared Hindu identity.

His speeches emphasised unity, discipline, and the need to avoid fragmentation, a message that BJP strategists believe significantly contributed to the consolidation of Hindu votes across several key constituencies.

Following the resounding victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar, political analysts were generous in their praise for incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. They credited his governance record and long-standing credibility across caste groups for the alliance’s strong performance.

Equally highlighted was the formidable organisational machinery of the BJP, steered by the triumvirate of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, and Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan. Their coordinated, high-voltage campaign, combined with Nitish Kumar’s seasoned local appeal, was widely acknowledged as a major reason for the NDA’s success.

Yet, amidst this distribution of praise, the role of Yogi Adityanath, who tirelessly campaigned at the ground level, received comparatively less attention in mainstream political commentary. The numbers, however, tell their own story.

Between October 16 and November 9, Yogi addressed 31 public meetings across Bihar. Notably, 23 of these were held in November alone, as the campaign entered what political operatives often refer to as the “slog overs,” where every rally, roadshow, and message can influence undecided voters. His speeches in these final days carried considerable weight, especially in districts with tight contests where even small shifts could determine the final outcome.

Electorally, his impact was striking. Of the 31 constituencies he campaigned in, NDA candidates won 27, a remarkable strike rate by any measure. Many of these seats were high-stakes constituencies where BJP’s own heavyweights or NDA partners were locked in tough battles.

Yogi’s presence, messaging, and ability to galvanise voters provided an additional push during the final phase of campaigning. The four constituencies where NDA candidates lost shared a common characteristic: they had dominant Muslim voter populations, where the alliance’s prospects were already known to be slim.

UP Chief Minister’s interventions were strategically targeted at areas where the BJP believed Hindu consolidation could alter the arithmetic in its favour and, evidently, the strategy paid off.

Yogi Adityanath’s evolving role also reflects a broader shift within the BJP’s election blueprint. After 2024, the party has shown an increased inclination to deploy regionally strong leaders across state boundaries, not merely as crowd-pullers but as narrative drivers. Yogi fits this mould perfectly.

His national visibility, combined with his governance record in Uttar Pradesh, has turned him into a political figure who can meaningfully influence voting behaviour in states with overlapping socio-cultural dynamics. Furthermore, Yogi’s speeches typically combine ideological clarity with pointed criticisms of opposition alliances.

He speaks in simple, direct sentences, often using symbolism and cultural references that resonate with rural and semi-urban voters. His rallies in Bihar followed this template closely, addressing local concerns, highlighting development issues, and invoking broader themes of unity and security.

It is also important to recognise that his campaign style complements rather than compete with that of the Prime Minister. While Modi brings national stature and a message of transformative governance, Yogi’s presence adds a degree of assertiveness and ideological intensity to the BJP’s campaign narrative. Together, they offer the party a dual pitch—development and decisive leadership.

As the BJP continues to prepare for forthcoming assembly elections, Yogi Adityanath’s role as the party’s reliable finisher is likely to deepen. In politically competitive states where caste equations, local grievances, and shifting alliances make outcomes unpredictable, the party will continue to rely on leaders who can mobilise its core base while delivering crisp, impactful messaging.

The Bihar results demonstrate that in these high-stakes political matches, the UP Chief Minister has become one of the BJP’s most valuable players, steadily finishing innings that others help set up.

(Sidharth Mishra is an author, academic and president of the Centre for Reforms, Development & Justice)

Bihar’s Record Turnout: A Verdict Beyond Numbers

By Sidharth MIshra

Bihar’s first phase of assembly elections has thrown up a record that is as striking as it is significant — nearly 65% of the 3.75 crore registered voters across 121 constituencies turned up to cast their ballots. The official figure of 64.66% marks the highest-ever voter turnout in the history of the state. But beyond the arithmetic of percentages lies a deeper political and social churn, one that could redefine Bihar’s electoral landscape.

At first glance, this unprecedented turnout seems to signal heightened political engagement, possibly a desire for change or a reaffirmation of faith in the democratic process. Yet, a closer reading of the numbers tells a more nuanced story. The 2025 elections are being conducted after the Special Investigation of Rolls (SIR), a meticulous exercise by the Election Commission that pruned the state’s voter list. Bihar now has 7.24 crore electors—about 60 lakh fewer than before the roll revision. This “thinning” of the list means that even with a higher percentage of voters turning out, the absolute number of votes cast may not have increased significantly compared to 2020.

To put it simply, the rise of nearly eight percentage points in turnout translates to a real increase of only about 4–5% in terms of actual votes polled. Nevertheless, this figure still represents a politically charged electorate, especially given the multiple crosscurrents shaping Bihar’s politics today.

Stakes for NDA and INDIAlliance

The stakes in these polls are exceptionally high. The ruling NDA, led by the BJP, faces a formidable challenge from the Congress-backed INDIAlliance, spearheaded by RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav. Both alliances are almost neck and neck in terms of estimated vote share of 40% for the NDA and 39% for the INDIAlliance, setting the stage for one of the closest contests Bihar has witnessed in recent years.

The NDA enters the fray with the advantage of incumbency in governance, a network of loyal cadres, and the continued appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi among a section of the electorate. However, the fatigue factor is undeniable. After years of alternating coalitions, many voters, especially in urban centers and among younger demographics, are questioning whether the current model of governance has delivered on its promises of jobs and development.

For the INDIAlliance, these elections are a test of its ability to channel anti-incumbency sentiment into a coherent mandate. Tejashwi Yadav’s campaign has focused sharply on unemployment, agrarian distress, and migration — issues that resonate with the youth and working class. His outreach, laced with emotional appeals to Bihari pride and economic self-respect, has found traction in several districts, particularly in the Seemanchal and Magadh regions.

The X-Factor: Jan Suraaj

What adds a new dimension to Bihar’s 2025 election is the emergence of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj. The former poll strategist’s entry has disrupted the traditional bipolar narrative. With his message of governance reform, local empowerment, and clean politics, Kishor has drawn a distinct constituency — especially among educated youth, first-time voters, and sections disillusioned with the entrenched caste-driven politics of both major alliances.

Poll analysts broadly agree that Jan Suraaj could secure around 10% of the vote share. While this figure may not immediately translate into a large number of seats under the state’s first-past-the-post system, it has the potential to tilt outcomes in closely fought constituencies. In a contest where NDA and INDIAlliance are separated by a wafer-thin margin, the presence of a third force could prove decisive.

If the urban, educated, and aspirational youth — a demographic that both major alliances have been aggressively courting — were to shift their loyalty even partially towards Jan Suraaj, it could sound alarm bells for the NDA. The ruling alliance’s dominance rests on holding together its social coalition of upper castes, OBCs, and women voters. A dent among the youth, particularly in districts like Patna, Nalanda, Muzaffarpur, and Bhagalpur, could disrupt that arithmetic.

Reading the Mood Behind the Numbers

The record turnout also indicates a certain restlessness — a political awakening that transcends caste and community lines, though not entirely free of them. Bihar’s electorate has traditionally been deeply rooted in social identity politics, but rising literacy, exposure through migration, and a growing digital footprint are slowly altering the nature of voter engagement.

High turnout often suggests a desire for change, yet it can also signify renewed faith in the democratic process under stress. In Bihar’s case, it may represent both. Voters are asserting themselves — demanding not merely promises but performance. The aspirational tone of this election stands in contrast to the fatalism that once characterized Bihar’s politics.

A Battle of Vision, Not Just Votes

As the dust settles on the first phase, it is clear that Bihar’s election is no longer just a contest between alliances; it is a referendum on the quality of governance, the credibility of promises, and the authenticity of leadership. Whether the NDA can retain its edge or whether the INDIAlliance can convert popular discontent into a decisive mandate remains uncertain. What is certain, however, is that Bihar’s voters have spoken louder than ever before.

The record turnout is not merely a statistic. It is a statement — that democracy in Bihar is alive, vocal, and evolving. The verdict, when it comes, will reveal not only who governs the state but also which direction its politics will take in the decade ahead.

(Sidharth Mishra is an Author, Academic and President of the Centre for Reforms, Development & Justice)

Bihar’s Battle of Promises and Power Brokers

By Sidharth MIshra

As the campaign for the first phase of 121 Assembly seats draws to a close this evening, Bihar stands at the threshold of an election that could redefine its political and social contours. The rhetoric has been fierce, the promises grand, and the underlying message unmistakable, and this is an election where jobs, not just caste, have taken centre stage.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s rallies in Purnia and Bahadurganj mark an attempt to reclaim the party’s lost bastions in Seemanchal, a region that once echoed with Congress slogans. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s whirlwind of rallies and roadshows has sought to reinforce the NDA’s dominance. Yet, amid the noise of campaign slogans, one issue has resonated deeply across Bihar’s dusty lanes, employment.

Tejashwi Yadav’s bold promise of providing one government job per family has electrified young voters. The Grand Alliance (Mahagathbandhan) has gone a step further, pledging to legislate this promise within 20 days of taking office. The NDA, however, has dismissed it as “a bundle of lies,” arguing that such a move would require funds far exceeding Bihar’s entire budget. For now, analysts agree on one thing, the youth’s verdict could inaugurate a new era in Bihar politics.

But beyond this headline contest between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan lies another, more complex battle — that of the smaller yet strategically crucial parties and their leaders who often punch above their electoral weight.

The EBC Equation and the ‘Son of Mallah’: Mukesh Sahani, the self-styled ‘Son of Mallah’ has emerged as a significant factor in the Mahagathbandhan’s social arithmetic. Projected as the prospective Deputy Chief Minister, Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party has been allotted 15 seats, underscoring his bargaining power. Representing the Mallah community — part of the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) — Sahani challenges Nitish Kumar’s traditional hold over this group. The BJP, unwilling to cede ground, has countered with prominent Mallah figures in key constituencies, turning the EBC vote into a tug-of-war.

Manjhi’s Mushahar Base and Familial Politics: In the Magadh region, former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi continues to rely on the Mushahar community, another decisive Scheduled Caste bloc. His Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) remains a small but vocal player, often negotiating its relevance within larger alliances. True to form, Manjhi’s brand of family-centric politics persists — three of his six party tickets have gone to relatives, a move that reflects the personalized nature of Bihar’s politics.

The Silent Strength of Upendra Kushwaha: Upendra Kushwaha’s return to prominence represents another subplot in this intricate drama. Commanding influence over the 6–7% Kushwaha (Koeri) vote bank, he holds sway in roughly 40 constituencies. Together with the Kurmis, this forms the “Luv-Kush” equation that once bolstered Nitish Kumar’s rise. Having lost his Lok Sabha seat in Karakat, Kushwaha now seeks redemption and could yet emerge as the NDA’s silent trump card.

PK and AIMIM Factors: Adding to the intrigue is Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj movement, which has positioned itself as an alternative to both mainstream alliances. While Kishor’s outfit may not win many seats, it threatens to fragment the traditional vote banks particularly among youth and first-time voters disillusioned with old politics. In Seemanchal, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM adds another layer of complexity. With about three dozen candidates in the fray, the party’s growing influence could chip away at the Mahagathbandhan’s Muslim–Yadav base.

Bihar’s election this time is not just a clash of alliances but a contest between aspiration and arithmetic. Employment, dignity, and representation have converged into a powerful political narrative. Whether Tejashwi’s promise of jobs or the NDA’s emphasis on stability finds greater resonance remains to be seen. But one thing is certain that as Bihar’s youth line up to vote, they are no longer just participants in a caste calculus but are potential architects of a new political order.

(Sidharth Mishra is an Author, Academic and President of the Centre for Reforms, Development & Justice)

Jan Suraaj Set to Score Moral, if Not Electoral, Sweep in Bihar

By Sidharth MIshra

Another five days to go for the first phase of polling in Bihar assembly elections, a large section of people one interacted with complain that the traditional media and to an extent the social media has banished Jan Suraaj Party from its coverage. These people with grouse incidentally are across the caste and the underlining point is that most of them are educated and somewhat prosperous.

The desire to see a shift in the fortunes of the state and rid it from the albatross of caste-based society is somewhere making a mark. While debates over the electoral success story of Prashant Kishor’s party could continue but his efforts has certainly won him moral success in shaking up the mindset of the people.

Elections seem fascinating in some measure because they reflect the shifts in people’s thinking and aspirations as well as their expectations of the leaders. On November 14, we may know a little more about “Badalta Bihar” when the outcome of the two-phase Bihar Assembly elections will be known.

As the Opposition Mahagathbandhan appeared to be losing momentum following differences in the alliance over seat-sharing, Rahul Gandhi stepped in and reached out to Lalu Yadav. Rahul rushed old Congress hand and ex-Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot to Patna to salvage a situation which was getting out of hand.

By naming its CM candidate, the Mahagathbandhan has regained momentum, putting the ruling NDA on the defensive for not having done the same. Union Home Minister Amit Shah left the CM question open when he said that the NDA MLAs will choose their leader after the elections, even as the NDA is contesting the polls under the leadership of the incumbent CM Nitish Kumar.

ALSO READ: Not Naming Nitish As CM Is Part Of NDA Poll Strategy

What has also become evident is that the Bihar fray has thrown up a crop of young leaders, be it Tejashwi Yadav, Chirag Paswan, Mukesh Sahani or Prashant Kishor. In the countdown to the Bihar elections, the “PK factor” features in every conversation about it. The poll strategist-turned-politician Kishor’s Jan Suraaj has caught eyeballs, and got the attention of youths. Tired of old faces and politics, a section of Bihar people has been drawn by his pitch to move beyond caste politics towards ensuring a better future for their children.

Kishor had himself said that his party would get either 150 seats of the state’s 243 or below 10. As the campaign has progressed his words have to be taken seriously and not just dismissed as ‘X’ factor, whatever that would mean.

And in 2022, Kishor the poll strategist, decided to be a political player himself, undertaking padayatras across Bihar for two years before launching his own party on October 2, 2024. His party has been compared to political start-ups like Asom Gana Parishad and Aam Aadmi Party. But Jan Suraaj is different, the former were political fallout of social movements. Here is the instance of a political enterprise set up to take on social and economic causes.

Kishor may not be a product of a movement, but he is born out of a social media and communication revolution impacting our lives. The protests buoyed by social media have toppled governments in Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka in recent years.

Many believe that politics has been de-ideologised today, getting linked only to power that stems from winning elections, which in turn rides on skilful management of poll machinery. Kishor was among those few who first understood this churn in the country.

And, even as a leader now, he has built a party in a remarkably short time, so much so that he has now fielded candidates in 243 constituencies (he has accused the BJP of forcing three of the Jan Suraaj nominees to withdraw). But curiously, just as he was emerging as one of the central figures during the campaign, he pulled back by deciding not to take the plunge himself. What ace he has up his sleeve has to be watched.

He has set the bar high, declaring that “even if I get 125 seats, I would consider it a defeat” and expects voters to put him “ya to arsh par, nahi to farsh par” (Either I’ll be on the throne or on the floor). Bihar’s politics has often rewarded audacious campaign planks, be it Jayaprakash Narayan’s call for Sampoorna Kranti, Lalu Yadav’s attempt to turn the social hierarchies upside down, or Nitish Kumar’s bid to make governance the centrepiece of his campaign at a time when Bihar was showing the signs of a failed state. Whether Prashant Kishor will join that list remains to be seen.

Yet, any careful analysis of the electoral prospects of his Jan Suraaj Party must take into account that as a seasoned election strategist, he has the means and method to amplify his side of the story. Kishor launched his party on October 2, 2024 after a two-year padyatra across the state that started from Gandhi Ashram in West Champaran district. He claims his team has visited over 5,000 villages, engaging with local communities to identify key issues, and has a membership base of 1 crore.

He claims that since there have been no cataclysmic events in Bihar that could propel a new political force to office, his party gains would be fruits of hard political campaign. He appears to be getting slightly more support from upper castes and Muslims than from OBCs and Dalits.

PK’s campaign is mobilising the economic anxieties among the more aspirational segments such as school teachers, professionals, small entrepreneurs, educated youth and migrants. For them, Kishor’s anti-establishment pitch resonates precisely because both the NDA and MGB seem like two factions of the same old order that have dominated state politics for the last 35 years.

A question is often being asked, whose chances will JSP hurt more, the NDA’s or MGB’s? The NDA’s chances could get hurt if the seat-sharing arrangement within the NDA along with the whisper campaign against Nitish Kumar makes JD (U) appear as a party that could be cannibalised. In the end, the real effect of JSP playing a spoiler may largely be driven by the candidate choices parties make.

So even if PK’s gambit succeeds in a modest way, then the 2025 Bihar election may be won or lost in margins. And, in the process, it may shift the grammar of politics in a state where caste loyalty is the only thing that matters in an electoral battle. Much will depend on whether this middle layer of Bihar’s society remains steadfastly committed to PK’s insurgency or their other identities (and factors) become more dominant on polling day.

For Kishor, it’s a test case of whether election management (PR, strategy, data, etc) can substitute for politics (social coalitions, political alliances, charisma etc). His previous avatar as a strategist did not require him to have a clear ideological image. As a politician, he cannot avoid one. PK is no longer just a planner behind the curtain; he now aspires to be a product with a long shelf life.

Despite all the arguments against him and also reservations about his ability to contest, as the campaign has progressed, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj is proving to be tough competitor. Explain this in view of the above mentioned factors.

(The writer is an established Author, Academic and President of the Centre for Reforms, Development & Justice)

Bihari Identity Takes Centre Stage As Campaign Picks Up

By Sidharth MIshra

With campaign in Bihar peaking up post Chhath festival, the spiritual carnival in itself has become a poll issue. Rahul Gandhi in his first election rally took potshots at Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s public observance of Chhath Puja, describing it as a “drama” orchestrated for votes. He criticised Modi for planning to bathe in a specially-built pond by the Yamuna in Delhi during the festive ritual, pointing out that the river water is dirty and that the temporary set-up was staged.

In response, the BJP and its allies launched a fierce broadside. They accused Gandhi of insulting the faith and cultural sentiments of Bihar’s people. Union ministers and state allies demanded a public apology, saying his remarks crossed the line of decency and disrespected the festival of Chhath and the devotion of its practitioners.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has himself taken forward the attack. Speaking at a rally in Muzaffarpur, Modi turned Rahul Gandhi’s statement into a political counterattack, saying that for Rahul, “the worship of Chhathi Maiya is just drama and theatrics.” Modi accused him of insulting a sacred festival merely to seek votes, turning the comment into a new weapon in the Bihar election battle.

For the uninitiated, voting in Bihar will be held in two phases: on November 6 and 11, and the results will be announced on November 14.

Rahul Gandhi, the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, had said during his rally in Muzaffarpur that “Narendra Modi has nothing to do with the Yamuna, nor does he have anything to do with Chhath Puja. He only wants your votes. If you tell him to put on a drama, he will do it. Tell him, ‘Modi ji, we’ll give you our votes, come on stage and dance.’ He will dance. Just try it once. Tell Modi ji not to give a speech but to dance on stage he will do it. He’ll do whatever you want before the election, but after the election, you won’t see him again.”

As Chhath holds deep emotional significance in Bihar, the controversy has become a cultural flashpoint in this election. The festival spat has sharpened the electoral battle lines in Bihar, with the BJP using the issue to portray itself as the defender of local culture and faith and the Congress trying to shift the focus to governance, jobs and alleged electoral manipulation.

Playing on emotional and cultural connections during elections is not new, though the style and intensity have evolved over time. Whether it’s Mithilanchal, Bhojpur, or other regions, every area has its own traditional ways of showing respect and creating local bonding. In Mithilanchal, these cultural tokens are deeply ingrained and often serve both as a means of social connection and as a political tool during elections.

Such emotional touch-points are used to form personal connections with voters and motivate them to vote by appealing to their cultural pride and local identity. Politicians blend emotional and populist appeals with personal stories to appear relatable. For instance, Bhojpuri leaders use the gamchha as a mark of respect and often enjoy litti-chokha (an indigenous dish) with locals to show their affinity with regional traditions. Similarly, chadar poshi at religious shrines serves to connect with specific communities, symbolizing cultural respect while subtly expanding the political base.

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Samastipur, he was honored with a paag (traditional headgear), a garland made of makhana (fox nuts), an idol of the Sun God, and a Mithila painting, all strong symbols of Mithilanchal’s culture. In his speech, Modi expressed gratitude to the people of Mithila by mentioning paag, makhana, and maachh (fish), effectively weaving himself into the cultural fabric of the region.

However, misuse of such cultural symbols may sometimes turn into a major embarrassment. A recent example is from Alinagar Assembly constituency, where BJP candidate and folk singer Maithili Thakur faced backlash. During one of her campaign events, Ketki Singh, a BJP MLA from Ballia (Uttar Pradesh), caused outrage by saying, “The real symbol and pride of Mithila is not the paag, but Maithili Thakur herself.” She then threw the paag on the table, an act that offended local sentiments and angered party workers and residents alike.

The controversy deepened when a video surfaced showing Maithili Thakur using a as a bowl to eat makhana while talking to voters. This gesture was perceived as disrespectful to the traditional Mithila headgear, further fueling resentment among Mithila culture enthusiasts. In short, emotional connect has become both an art and a strategy in Bihar’s elections, one that can win hearts when done right, or cost dearly when misjudged.

Nitish Banking on Memory of Jungle Raj, Tejashwi on its Fading

By Sidharth MIshra

Political scientists across the globe, especially those studying democracy at the grassroots, have found Bihar and the way it elects its leaders to be an unfathomable area of research. Though she never worked on Bihar, political scientist and Lancaster and Keele University professor Margaret Canovan once referred to democracy having two faces. She mentioned that one face represented moral transformation and the politics of empowering ordinary people while the other was the face of practical democracy, where compromises are made for good governance.

In Bihar, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD and Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) embody these two faces. This Assembly election hinges on one crucial question: will Tejashwi Yadav of RJD show the practical face of democracy or will Nitish Kumar be able to represent the politics of moral transformation?

This line can be debated as Lalu Prasad Yadav is often credited with politically empowering the masses. However, under his son Tejashwi Yadav, RJD must show its practical side, because the sharp-edged politics of social justice had lost its appeal by 2005. People were weary of the 15 years of chaotic rule under Lalu-Rabri Yadav.

Anthropologist Jeffery Witsoe, who has closely studied caste and caste-based politics, writes that during the 1990s, the political assertion of the so-called lower castes, especially the other backward classes and Dalits, in Bihar triggered a deep conflict between the newly empowered political leadership and state institutions dominated by upper castes like the bureaucracy, police, and judiciary. As a result, caste-based empowerment politics disrupted the normal functioning of public institutions in Bihar.

Nitish Kumar projected himself as a pragmatic alternative. His politics struck a balance between development and social justice, something Lalu had failed to do. Nitish Kumar’s political model made Bihar move from politics of social justice to that of social adjustment.

According to a 2015 Lokniti-CSDS survey, about 42% of respondents believed that Lalu’s politics gave voice and dignity to Dalits and backward castes. However, nearly half of them also believed that his politics was responsible for Bihar’s backwardness and lawlessness.

If the RJD fails to demonstrate its practical side, it will struggle in the elections. Its social coalition remains imbalanced, still dominated by Yadavs and Muslims, with limited participation from other castes. Generally, allies help bridge such gaps, but the RJD in not expecting much from the Congress, at least that’s what the bitter haggling over the seats showed.

In the 2020 election fought in alliance with Congress and CPI(ML), the Grand Alliance came out weaker from its performance in 2015, when Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) was also part of the conglomerate. With Chirag Paswan’s LJP emerging stronger by getting a respectable seat share in the rival alliance in this elections, the RJD cannot afford to outsource Dalit vote mobilization.

However, Nitish’s pragmatic politics is now running out of fuel and is largely seen as a symbol of convenience and stagnation. From 2005 to 2015, he enjoyed immense popularity. In the 2015 CSDS survey, 40% of people considered him their first choice for Chief Minister. But the situation has changed. According to the latest C-Voter survey, Tejashwi Yadav now leads with 35% preference, followed by Prashant Kishor with 23%, and Nitish with only 16%.

The BJP, on its own, has made inroads into the JD(U)’s core voter base of EBCs (Extremely Backward Castes) and Kurmi–Kushwahas. Evidence of this includes the Modi government’s approval of a caste census, the Bharat Ratna awarded to Karpoori Thakur, and the appointment of a Kushwaha, Samrat Chaudhary as Deputy Chief Minister. Between 2005 and 2020, the BJP’s vote share in seats it contested rose from 35% to 42%, while the JD(U)’s declined from 37% to 32%.

Another factor is the rise of the new generation. According to the Election Commission, 47% of Bihar’s voters are between 18 and 39 years old. For this group, the memories of the Lalu–Rabri era are faint. However, they do remember Tejashwi Yadav’s two stints as Deputy Chief Minister, when he focused on employment and public issues.

Additionally, Prashant Kishor (PK) poses a fresh challenge in this electoral landscape, who offers technocratic idealism against the cynicism of old politics. His role too needs a detailed analysis but let’s limit this discussion to battle between the two protagonists.

Both the JD(U) and RJD face the same challenge of moving Bihar’s politics beyond the legacy of “Lalu’s Bihar.” For the RJD, this means promising a Bihar that does not resemble the Lalu era. To Tejashwi’s credit, he has tried to focus on issues that concern ordinary people.

Nitish Kumar’s party is fighting to not fall victim to the fading memory of Lalu’s rule. Nitish’s popularity was originally built on resentment against Lalu’s governance, and as that resentment fades, so does Nitish’s political influence.

However, in the fresh push to their campaign both Kumar and the BJP leadership including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah are working overtime to recall the ‘jungle raj’, how much would it work, only ballots would tell!

Ultimately, Bihar’s election is not merely a contest between parties or leaders. It is a referendum on which face of democracy the state chooses to embrace, the moral or the practical, transformation or compromise.

(The writer is an author, academic and president of the Centre for Reforms, Development & Justice)

Hesitation in Declaring Nitish as CM Face Part of NDA Tactics

By Sidharth MIshra

In Bihar’s political theatre, there are few constants, and Nitish Kumar has long been one of them. For two decades, he has presided over the state’s politics with an agility that allowed him to move between alliances, reinvent his image, and reassert his indispensability. But as Bihar approaches another crucial election, that certainty seems to be fading. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), of which Nitish is a senior constituent, appears hesitant to project him as its chief ministerial candidate. This reluctance is not merely tactical; it reflects deeper shifts in Bihar’s political landscape, the internal dynamics of the NDA, and the changing aspirations of its electorate.

Over the past 20 years, Nitish has led the Janata Dal (United) through four Lok Sabha and as many assembly elections. Regardless of the outcome, he has remained at the helm — an achievement that speaks both of his political skill and his adaptability. Yet, the ground beneath him has been shifting. The JD(U)’s legislative strength has steadily declined from 115 seats in 2010 to just 43 in 2020, even as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), his long-time ally and occasional rival, has grown stronger. The balance of power within the NDA has thus altered significantly, and with it, Nitish’s bargaining position.

For the BJP, which now commands the larger share of NDA’s voter base in Bihar, declaring Nitish as the coalition’s CM face would mean conceding political primacy to a weakened partner. By refraining from naming him, the party retains flexibility, a freedom to decide the leadership question after the results, depending on the seat tally. Amit Shah’s repeated assertion that “the newly elected legislators will choose the chief minister” is not an offhand remark; it is a carefully calibrated signal that the BJP wishes to keep its options open.

There is also the question of trust. Nitish Kumar’s political journey has been marked by ideological fluidity, an ability, or critics would say a willingness, to switch sides in pursuit of power. From the NDA to the Mahagathbandhan and back again, he has shown that in Bihar’s politics, permanence lies only in pragmatism. This history has created a layer of suspicion within both camps. The BJP leadership, mindful of his past realignments, would prefer to avoid making itself hostage to a leader whose allegiance has never been absolute. Keeping the CM question open acts as a safeguard against another political volte-face.

Beyond party arithmetic, there is the generational question. A large section of Bihar’s electorate today comprises young voters who have no memory of the Lalu-Rabri years, the period of lawlessness and decay against which Nitish had once built his reputation as a reformer. For these voters, Nitish represents continuity rather than change. His early achievements, the focus on roads, electricity, girls’ education, and women’s empowerment are now taken for granted.

Tejashwi Yadav, with his promises of ten lakh jobs and a rhetoric centered on opportunity, appeals directly to this demographic. For the BJP, aligning too closely with Nitish risks being seen as defending the status quo, when the mood in parts of Bihar seems to demand renewal.

Within the NDA, the reluctance also mirrors the BJP’s internal strategy of leadership transition. The party has begun grooming a new generation of leaders in the state, Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary, former Speaker Vijay Kumar Sinha, and others, each representing a specific social bloc. Publicly projecting Nitish as chief minister would stifle this second line of leadership. Ambiguity, therefore, serves a dual purpose of keeping Nitish in play as a stabilising figure, while leaving room for a possible post-election reconfiguration where the BJP might finally stake claim to the top post in Patna.

Caste equations further complicate the picture. The NDA is an alliance of diverse social bases as upper castes rally largely behind the BJP; the Kurmis and Koeris remain JD(U)’s backbone; Dalits and Mahadalits are courted by the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and Hindustani Awam Morcha. Declaring Nitish too early could alienate smaller allies like LJP(R) and HAM, both of whom nurture their own chief ministerial ambitions. The NDA’s leadership, aware of this delicate balance, finds it safer to defer the decision until the numbers are known.

At another level, this calculated hesitation is itself a campaign tactic. The BJP and its allies can simultaneously leverage Nitish’s administrative record, the roads, the improved law and order, the governance model that once earned Bihar a reputation for turnaround while also distancing themselves from anti-incumbency. By neither rejecting nor fully endorsing him, they can appeal to both Nitish loyalists and voters looking for change. It is a balancing act, and one that perhaps only Bihar’s politics, with its intricate caste arithmetic and perpetual churn, could sustain. For Nitish Kumar, however, the uncertainty must feel unfamiliar. He has built a career on being indispensable; now, for the first time, his indispensability is being questioned. His challenge in this election is twofold of persuading a generation that never saw the darkness from which he claims to have rescued Bihar, and to convince an ally that seems increasingly eager to move beyond him. Whether the BJP’s reluctance is tactical ambiguity or a sign of transition will be known only after the votes are counted. But one thing is certain that this election marks the beginning of a new political reckoning in Bihar, one where the NDA’s old centre of gravity may finally begin to shift.

(The writer is an established Author, Academic and President of the Centre for Reforms, Development & Justice)

How Congress Agreed To Toe RJD Line In Battle For Bihar!

By Sidharth MIshra

In the run-up to the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections Congress had created the hope taking a fresh stand vis-à-vis Rashtriya Janata Dal and presenting a new image in the state’s political battlefield. However, neither the political landscape of Bihar nor its electorate seemed particularly eager to embrace this change.

The young team entrusted with understanding and assessing the reality of this so-called transformation failed to fulfil its task. Gradually, Congress found itself pushed to the back foot as the father-son duo of Lalu-Tejaswi Yadav stood firm deciding the final allocation of seats within the alliance.

The party’s state in-charge Krishna Allavaru and its student body’s national in charge, Kanhaiya Kumar had had set out with big ambitions. Well before the elections, they launched the “Give Jobs, Stop Migration” campaign, whose entire blueprint was drawn up at Sadaqat Ashram (the Bihar Congress headquarters).

These moves were made with taking RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav into confidence. When it came to identifying potential constituencies, around 140 seats were marked and sent to RJD from Sadaqat Ashram itself. Later, when talks of contesting and seat-sharing began, Congress forwarded a list of 71 constituencies, which even included some of RJD’s sitting seats.

Congress in making such moves tried to shed the tag of being RJD’s B-Team” and reclaim its own legacy base, comprising Muslims, Dalits, and upper castes. Krishna Allavaru and Kanhaiya Kumar tried to rebuild Congress from the ground up. Even Rahul Gandhi, during his “Adhikar Yatra,” attempted to assess the strength of the Bihar unit. But Congress strategists failed to communicate one critical finding from their internal surveys that the party could not survive without RJD’s support base.

The traditional Congress vote of Muslims, Dalits, and upper castes today stand fragmented. Muslims largely stood with RJD, especially after the Waqf Board Amendment controversy. Upper castes continue to back BJP, and in the event of disenchantment Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj was the option they looked up to.

Dalits were divided among various leaders and factions, the Dusadh (Paswan) community (about 5%) sided with Chirag Paswan, while the Ravidas voters were split among Congress, RJD and a few local leaders. In such a fragmented scenario, returning to the back foot became an inevitable compulsion for Congress.

In a tough bargain, RJD leadership further pointed out that since several other allies had joined, both RJD and Congress would have to reduce their seat share. When Congress later presented a revised list of 61 constituencies, it had already given up claims on several seats where it had lost narrowly in the previous election.

When the Congress’s political experiment did not make way, party brought in senior leader and former Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, known as a shrewd strategist with long-standing ties to Lalu Prasad Yadav to end the stalemate. Eventually, seat-sharing reverted to the formula originally proposed by Lalu Prasad Yadav himself. Congress having accepted to project Tejaswi Yadav as the Chief Ministerial face, has in its own way, put the onus on the RJD leadership to push a concerted and forceful campaign for the alliance in a battle which for now looks like going neck and neck.

(The writer is an established Author, Academic and President of the Centre for Reforms, Development & Justice)

With Tejashwi As Spearhead, INDIA Bloc Is Battle Ready

By Sidharth MIshra

The Grand Alliance (Mahagathbandhan) has finally declared Tejashwi Yadav as its chief ministerial candidate for the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections. The decision came after prolonged deliberations and internal tussles, mainly over seat-sharing between the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).

The last leg of discussion was between senior Congress leader Ashok Gehlot and RJD patriarch Lalu Prasad Yadav. Announcement of the name of Tejashwi Yadav by Gehlot has provided ammunition to the campaign which was looking to be running out of fuel for some time.

The consensus on Tejashwi Yadav’s name has for sure sent out a message of unity among the INDIAlliance partner parties, which form the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar. The focus for the past few days had remained on the Congress and the RJD, as the real contention lay between them over seat distribution and the chief ministerial post.

The delay in the announcement had increased uncertainty within the alliance. A few days earlier, Mukesh Sahani had remarked that the alliance was “a little unwell,” indicating internal disagreements.

Although the Congress never directly opposed Tejashwi’s candidature, it also refrained from openly endorsing him. In fact, people in Bihar had already assumed that Tejashwi would be the face of the alliance — the official announcement was seen as a mere formality.

One major reason for the delay was Congress’s demand for a larger and more winnable share of seats. In the previous Assembly election, Congress contested 70 seats but managed to win only 19. This time, the party wanted both a better seat share and stronger constituencies, which prolonged the negotiations. Eventually, the partners agreed that projecting unity under Tejashwi’s leadership was crucial to avoid losing political momentum.

Still, there may be some instances of “friendly fights,” where allies may contest against each other in a few constituencies with mutual understanding. Nevertheless by finalizing its CM face, the Grand Alliance has attempted to catch up with the NDA, which had gained an early edge by announcing its seat-sharing arrangement.

Incidentally, this is the first election in two decades where Nitish Kumar, although leading the NDA campaign, is not projected as its chief ministerial face. The Grand Alliance hopes that declaring a clear leader will help them put pressure on the NDA.

This election is unique in several ways. While Nitish Kumar’s government has been making a series of promises and policy announcements, Tejashwi Yadav has also rolled out an array of assurances to the electorate. The Grand Alliance’s manifesto, scheduled for release on October 28, after the Chhath festivities, is expected to feature several major promises.

Although, as mentioned earlier, some friction still persists between the Congress and the RJD over seat-sharing, the alliance has managed to present a united front. Mukesh Sahani’s earlier remarks had hinted at tensions, but the final consensus on Tejashwi’s name marks a major forward move for the Grand Alliance both symbolically and strategically, as it conveys an image of cohesion to the electorate.

On the other hand, while the NDA has already announced its seat allocations, it has refrained from naming any single CM candidate. This is a significant shift since Nitish Kumar has been the face of the alliance for nearly twenty years. By naming Tejashwi as their chief ministerial face, the Grand Alliance has tried to mount psychological and political pressure on the NDA.

The Bihar election this time holds exceptional significance. Both sides are competing through promises and programs — with Nitish Kumar banking on governance and continuity, and Tejashwi Yadav appealing to aspirations and change. The upcoming manifesto on October 28 is likely to outline Tejashwi’s vision for Bihar.

The key question now is: which set of promises will the people of Bihar trust — and who will emerge as the next Chief Minister?

(The writer is an established Author, Academic and President of the Centre for Reforms, Development & Justice)

To Ban Or Not To Ban – That Is The Question In Bihar!

By Sidharth MIshra

Amidst the political buzz of the Bihar Assembly elections, Prashant Kishor, the new factor in the campaign, has promised to lift the alcohol ban. This has gained attention and is being widely discussed among the public, even though politicians remain largely silent about it.

The alcohol prohibition law has been in force in Bihar since 2016. It was a major issue in the 2020 Assembly elections as well. At that time, it was believed that the prohibition benefited Nitish Kumar, especially since women were happy with the decision, which was reflected in the voting patterns. This time too, the ban is being discussed, even though the ruling NDA leaders are avoiding public discussions on the topic.

This begs the question: What is it that the poll strategist in Prashant Kishor sees an opportunity in raking up the matter about scrapping a law which in the past seems to have benefitted the ruling establishment, his rivals in the poll? A close scrutiny would show that the Jan Suraaj Party leader is addressing those who have been affected by the law and those who have benefitted from it, the poor and low caste women.

The complaint about implementation of the law is largely against the police and excise department officials. The enforcement agencies are accused of prosecuting the consumer for illegally marketed alcohol and not the sellers, who are believed to pay heavily to ‘buy the license to sell.’

The general refrain is that an alcohol bottle that was used to be available for ₹200 earlier is now delivered at home ₹500. It is said, and not without reason, that this is the cost for the safe home delivery of liquor. Everyone, it is believed, knows whom to call and what to say to get alcohol delivered directly to their home.

But then, there is the community consisting women across caste, economic class and region, which silently supports it. It should not be forgotten that the whole movement demanding ban on sale and consumption of alcohol was led by a woman of lowly Mushar community from rural Bihar.

While women initially celebrated prohibition, many now see that the law’s implementation has bred corruption and victimized their own families. Thousands of households have seen male members arrested, and families driven further into poverty and hardships. Kishor’s pitch, therefore, is not merely a call to “lift the ban,” but to “end hypocrisy” – to frame prohibition as a failed, exploitative, and class-biased policy.

For the ruling NDA, especially Nitish Kumar, prohibition remains a delicate issue. While women still symbolically support it, its enforcement failures make open discussion politically risky. BJP allies, on the other hand, have privately expressed frustration over the law’s unpopularity in rural areas but maintain silence publicly to avoid alienating women voters.

Despite high degree of criticism (higher than it actually deserves), prohibition continues to enjoy a moral constituency, particularly among rural women. For them, it symbolizes dignity, peace at home, and control over family income. They see it as a measure of social justice and equality, especially in a patriarchal society where women’s voices are often muted.

It is also important to note that alcohol-related abuse, crime, and health issues had reached alarming levels in Bihar before prohibition. Lifting the ban without a robust system of regulated sale and awareness could risk a relapse into that chaos.

The call to scrap prohibition in Bihar touches upon deep questions of morality, governance, and political pragmatism. The law, while borne out of genuine social reform, has degenerated into a system that punishes the poor, enriches the corrupt, and drains state resources. Prashant Kishor’s challenge is therefore not limited only to Nitish Kumar’s policy but to the very idea that symbolic morality can replace effective governance.

Scrapping prohibition outright might be politically risky, but reforming it is both necessary and inevitable. A nuanced, balanced policy – one that respects women’s rights, curbs corruption, and restores economic rationality – would be the truly prudent decision for Bihar’s future.

(The writer is an established Author, Academic and President of the Centre for Reforms, Development & Justice)