Tag: India Pakistan Conflict

‘Indian Investors Need Not Worry About Tariff War or Indo-Pak Tension’

By LokMarg

Jitendra Luthra, an investment advisor based in UP, says the Indian fundamentals are strong enough to absorb any untoward disruptive incident in the long run. His views:

I have a piece of advice for all stock market investors, big or small, who have been losing sleep ever since US President Donald Trump announced a new tariff regime: Trump himself is still not clear about the intensity and degree of the tariffs he wants to impose on a specific country. White House is still rejigging the figures. So allow the dust to settle down and do not press the panic button.

My second advice is: the recent military flare-up between India and Pakistan will have little impact on the Indian market, though there could be minor upheaval initially. It is the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) which will find it difficult to recover from the shock caused by the conflict as well as its after-effects. Stock markets move not only based on sentiments but also on the fundamentals of its corresponding economy.

Coming back to US tariffs, it is becoming increasingly clear that the real cause of the stocks tanking was US posturing against China. Currently, the two economic giants have reached a trade deal. Those who resorted to panic selling when the tariffs and counter-tariffs were hovering around 250% may now be regretting their decision.

Mind you, even while stock exchanges around the world felt the heat of reciprocal tariffs as soon as they were announced, the Indian stock market was arguably the first exchange to recover and successfully erase a majority of its losses. This is also seconded by the observations of big wig market experts like Bloomberg which touted Indian markets as “relatively safe” amid global volatility over Trump’s punitive move on friends and foes alike.

ALSO READ: Donald Trump And The New World Order

Reports have also lauded our markets for having a much better capacity to withstand a potential global recession at any point of time and any kind of unfavourable global economic conditions. According to other stats available widely, India is far better insulated from tariffs, accounting for only 2.7% of total US imports, compared to China at 14% and Mexico at 15% making less or no impact on its market behaviour for long durations of instability.

The recovery of Indian stocks after the ceasefire was announced is also a clear indicator that our fundamentals are strong. On the other hand, Pakistan stocks tanked since global investors know where it stands vis-à-vis India – be it economy, infrastructure, resources, planning, skills, etc. Therefore our investors need not worry in terms of returns during or post escalation.

Another stronghold of the Indian markets is that we have, for a significant period, managed to limit Chinese investments resulting in any kind of substantial effects on China having minimal or least impact on India unlike the situations and threats faced by other global markets. Also, our manufacturing capacities and capabilities are growing rapidly for the past few years positioning India as an alternate to China as a manufacturing hub. This, along with our more conciliatory approach with Washington, is also keeping our markets and investments stable and safe.

Initially, 26 per cent duty was proposed by Trump and our institutions are negotiating the present rejig with America, aiming for $500 billion in bilateral trade by 2030. We, as investors, should also not be moved with such ups and downs and pros and cons in the local and global markets as they are not permanent. We should also remember that our economy is one of the most stable economies in the world having surpassed major slumps and recessions in the past only to emerge more successful and powerful.

As told to Rajat Rai

‘We Struck Only At The Symptoms; Why Not Question Security Lapses’

By LokMarg

R Kalpana, a Bengaluru-based educator and behavioral trainer, decries the war mongering post-Pahalgam and says India has struck only at the symptoms. Her views:

My first reaction after I heard about the Pahalgam killings of tourists? I was shocked and distraught. I completely felt off-guard. How did the terrorists reach so far with their guns?

This is not the first time that these security lapses have happened in Kashmir. We have also, in the past, suddenly heard about some retaliation in the name of ‘surgical strikes’ where the footage and visuals appeared morphed, while TV channels go berserk. We, as citizens, see all this as a total façade, and a masquerade.

How can terrorists walk into a tourist zone, which is so popular, with guns, shoot, murder and walk away so easily? Why does the government not accept accountability and ownership of these gruesome incidents, with total and transparent security lapse?

In reality we have to believe that the armed forces seem to have no autonomy. Where were the security personnel on that day? No one in sight! They came, they shot and they left!

Tourists were murdered. Innocent people were killed not only because of terror, but equally because of the negligence of the government in a vulnerable zone. The government must take responsibility for this serious security lapse in a conflict zone. Mere Pak-bashing won’t do.

It was the locals who helped the stranded and the injured. Yet, they are hounded, trolled and maligned. Muslim citizens in Kashmir were and are the target of all governments. Thus, over a period of time we have been insulated in believing that all Kashmiri Muslims are terrorists who want a separate land. Reality has never been showcased by the irresponsible agenda-driven mainstream media, especially TV channels.

Kashmiris have their own cultural and ethnic identity, like all other communities in India, and their religion is one dimension of their identity. Hindus and Muslims have thrived and lived together in Kashmir since decades. Unfortunately, dividing them has been the only action of all governments post independence.

We need to understand that there is a Hindu and Muslim in every Kashmiri. Culture has integrated the layers of their identities. This culture is the agency, but the ‘politicisation of religion’ has made the people ignorant of the embedded nature of a deep and inherited bonding between the communities. Tragically, we see only the polarised agency of religion

ALSO READ: Post-Pahalgam Politics of Symbolism

It is the responsibility of the Indian government, with the support of our allies, to seriously pursue this issue and bring down the terrorist outfits in the open. The UN Security Council has already passed a resolution condemning the terrorist attack and resolving to seek justice. India should now demand an open trial in the International Court of Justice. The world has to stand by this.

However, the irony is, no international leader, especially in the powerful Western bloc, seems to be willing to stop any war across the globe. Look at Gaza and Ukraine! Nothing can be solved because we seem to be forever trapped in a vicious circle. Indeed, most of the leaders and politicians seem to be working work hand-in-glove. And everybody knows everything.

As a peace-loving citizen and passionate educator, I can only say that the rhetoric of division will resound in our land because that is the way certain political parties have chosen to function.

The India-Pak peace process is the most important issue for concerned citizens in both the countries — that should be the priority. We need the peace process, a stop to inflammatory war rhetoric, and an easing of tension in the border. We need rational and respected mediators who are neutral. There is no doubt that in the current situation we need international voices to support the peace process and the decisions of the process must be sanctified by the world.

As for the just-concluded conflict, we struck only at the symptom. We only appeased the hormonal euphoria of the nation, making them believe that we are revenging and avenging. We know Pakistan government is a rogue establishment and a puppet in the hands of other consortium of nations.

As told to Amit Sengupta