Tag: Narendra Modi And Sheikh Hasina

Impact of Bangladesh’s Political Crisis

How Will Bangladesh’s Political Crisis Impact India?

By Sanjoy Narayan

Last week, after taking over as the Chief Advisor to the interim government of Bangladesh, the Nobel laureate, Muhammad Yunus, 84, made a couple of statements that pertained to India. First, he said that Sheikh Hasina, who was forced to resign as Prime Minister, and flee to India should not be allowed to continue to stay there and that she should seek refuge somewhere else. He implied that her continued stay in India could complicate India’s position in the region.

Yunus also said that it “hurts” when India refers to the protests that culminated in Hasina’s resignation and departure as an internal affair of Bangladesh. He highlighted that the turmoil in Bangladesh is due to the “absence of democracy” and warned that the instability could spill over into neighboring countries. No prizes for guessing what that could mean.

Bangladesh has two neighbours with whom it shares borders. With India Bangladesh shares a very long and complex border. The total length of the India-Bangladesh border is approximately 4,096 kilometers (about 2,545 miles). It is significant for various reasons. It’s the fifth-longest land border in the world; geographically, it wraps around Bangladesh on three sides – west, north, and east; and the border passes through a variety of terrains, including rivers, forests, and densely populated areas, which presents unique challenges for border management and security.

Several Indian states share this border with Bangladesh: West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, and Mizoram.

Indo-Bangladesh Relations So Far

India’s relations with Bangladesh since the country was liberated from Pakistan in 1971 has been multifaceted and complex. 

India has historically hosted a significant number of refugees from Bangladesh, especially during the 1971 Liberation War. However, the issue of Rohingya refugees who fled Myanmar has also been a point of concern, with both countries working together to address the humanitarian crisis. There are other contentious issues between the two countries. India has been raising concerns about illegal immigrants and measures like the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam have been implemented to address this issue.

Yet, the two countries have significant trade between them.  India is Bangladesh’s largest export destination in Asia, with bilateral trade reaching $15.9 billion in the financial year 2022-23. Key exports from India include cotton, motor vehicles, and electronic equipment, while Bangladesh exports cereals, raw hides, and textiles.

India has extended significant financial assistance to Bangladesh, including an $8 billion line of credit for infrastructure development. Projects include the development of ports, railways, and road connectivity. Indian companies have invested in various sectors in Bangladesh, including power, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and IT. The investment climate has been favourable under Sheikh Hasina’s government, which actively encouraged foreign investment.

India and Bangladesh have strengthened their defence cooperation, focusing on areas like maritime security, counter-terrorism, and joint military exercises¹. Agreements have been signed to enhance cooperation in these areas.

Both countries have worked together to address security concerns, including cross-border terrorism and insurgency. Sheikh Hasina’s government took significant steps to curb anti-India activities from Bangladeshi soil.

India and the Geopolitics of South Asia

India with its massive population, economic size, and military power, is clearly the big brother in the region. And, just as the US and the Western block looks at India as a strategic ally and a counterfoil to China’s growing power in the world, India has sought to ally with its smaller neigbours to strengthen its own position. Bangladesh has been a key component of that strategy.

Sheikh Hasina was in power for a long time: first, from June 1996 to July 2001, and again from January 2009 to August 2024. Her party, the Awami League, was at the forefront of Bangladesh’s liberation movement led by her father Mujibur Rahman, and after his assassination and years of turmoil, Hasina was credited with restoring democracy and secularism in the country. Yet, in the second inning of Hasina’s reign, her regime became autocratic and authoritarian. Her political opponents were suppressed, imprisoned or even killed, and the general public grew increasingly restive. 

Her dramatic and sudden departure were a result of the escalation of what started out as student protests.  These began after a controversial court ruling reinstated a quota system for government jobs, which many saw as unfair and discriminatory. The situation escalated when Hasina’s government responded with a violent crackdown, leading to numerous deaths and widespread unrest.

The protests, led primarily by students and young people, were fueled by long-standing grievances over unemployment and government corruption. The government’s heavy-handed response, including the use of tear gas, live bullets, and the deployment of the Rapid Action Battalion, only intensified the unrest. The situation became untenable, leading to Hasina’s eventual resignation and her fleeing the country.

Impact of Hasina’s Ouster & Conspiracy Theories

Besides the cordial relations between the two countries, since 2014, Sheikh Hasina enjoyed a good rapport with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In fact, one view, fairly popular Delhi’s power corridors, is that the student uprising may have had the backing of Pakistan’s biggest intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), and the Awami League’s arch rival, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which historically has had alliance with the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), an Islamist party, and is seen as pro-Pakistan.

Some Indian media outlets have lapped up this sort of a conspiracy theory and also alleged a possible Chinese role behind the scenes.

The fact is that although under Hasina Bangladesh, once considered a basket case, prospered economically, and most notably emerged as a global leader in garment exports, youth unemployment has been a serious problem. The percentage of youth between 15 and 24 seeking jobs unsuccessfully has been nearly 16% and the crisis has been marked particularly among educated youth. The student uprising was likely triggered because of this.

Hasina’s exit and the political uncertainty will impact India’s relations with Bangladesh. The new interim government may have different priorities and policies, potentially impacting ongoing projects and cooperation. Economic ties might face challenges if the new government does not maintain the same level of engagement and support for Indian investments. Trade relations could also be affected if there are changes in trade policies or tariffs.

Defence and security cooperation might be reassessed, especially if the new government seeks to balance relations with other regional powers like China and Pakistan. The handling of illegal immigration and refugee issues could also see changes depending on the new government’s stance and policies.

Some factors that might affect the relations include the fact that Mohammad Yunus, a respected name in microfinance, banking and economics, has little experience in hands-on high-level politics. Bangladesh has had a history of the army staging coups and playing a decisive role in the government. 

India will obviously be watching closely to see how the situation evolves in Bangladesh. How soon will Bangladesh be able to hold elections that are fair and free? Now that the BNP’s leader, Khaleda Zia, 78, who was under house arrest during Hasina’s regime, has been released, will she and her son, Tarique Rahman who was exiled in the UK make a bid for power? Perceived as pro-Pakistan and Islamist, a comeback of the BNP could adversely affect India’s strategy in the region.

Reacting to Yunus’s statements after he took charge, India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has reiterated that the situation in Bangladesh is considered an internal matter. However, India has also emphasised the importance of stability and democratic processes in the region and has maintained that India’s primary focus is on ensuring the safety of its citizens in Bangladesh and supporting a peaceful resolution to the crisis. Additionally, India has expressed its willingness to engage in dialogue with the interim government to foster stability and cooperation.

Like much of India’s foreign policies, its strategy in the region will be to address its own interests in ensuring stability in the region while also respecting Bangladesh’s sovereignty–a balancing act that will require tact. 

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Friendly Neighbourhood Bangladesh@50

By Mahendra Ved

Fifty years is a long time, enough to look back and ruminate over the present, and Bangladesh’s emergence after a bloody struggle that changed South Asia’s map in 1971 is a good landmark.

The region has changed, and yet, little has changed if you look at millions living in poverty. Their governments pay them pennies compared to the pounds of preference the few get. Life expectancy has increased, but so have calamities, both natural and man-made.

In geostrategic terms, the heat of Cold War prevails. Russia, the erstwhile Soviet Union’s remnant, is replaced by a more aggressive China that has deep pockets and bigger ambitions. China has already gained access to the oil-rich Gulf and to the Indian Ocean. Ranged on the other side are Joe Biden’s ‘pivot’ and the just-emerging Quad. That lends importance to the largest portion humanity residing in the region.

Both alliances are expensive propositions, also designed to be exclusive. Does one have to join one or the other to stay afloat? During his Bangladesh visit last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi projected the Southeast Asian model (Asean) for South Asia, suggesting that there can be smart, nuanced tweaking. But only that much, perhaps. He seemed to think beyond trade and transit.

On the ground, however, one can’t really say if South Asia — and the world itself — are a better place to live. Not with Covid-19 and the resultant war over vaccine-ing the pandemic. Not when economies are struggling to revive car manufacturing and civil aviation, but millions walk hundreds of miles to jobless safety of their homes. The contradiction was never so stark when you look back at 1971.

Fifty years ago, the world helped India to feed and shelter ten million refugees pouring in from the then East Pakistan. It responded to India’s huge effort at public diplomacy that brought together the likes of Pandit Ravi Shankar, Yehudi Menuhin and Beatle George Harrison to stage the “Bangladesh” campaign. People like Edward Kennedy chipped in. They sought to open the eyes of the Western governments blinded by cold war compulsions. When Bangladesh was liberated, finally, Andres Malraux called India the “mother”, who embraced her children no matter who they are or where they come from.

ALSO READ: Bangladesh – The Next Asian Tiger

We now live in a world divided by ‘nationalist’ barriers. On the day Modi embarked on his Bangladesh visit, his government told the Supreme Court of India, in the context of the Rohingyas from Myanmar, the current unwanted lot, that India “cannot be the refugee capital of the world.”

At geopolitical level, South Asia remains as divided as it was half-a-century back, depending upon which way you look. Everyone was, and remains, non-aligned – only the movement itself is dead. South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) remains dormant, a hostage to India-Pakistan rivalry. Common cultures help maintain a semblance of unity. But they are hostage to faith-based extremism and violence.  Democracy is dodgy, limited to electoral games, while the rich-poor gap keeps widening.

Bangladesh is celebrating fifty year of hard-won independence, which also marks the centenary of its founding leader, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. At the helm is his daughter, Sheikh Hasina, the longest-serving Premier who has provided political stability and helped unleash economic development, making her country Number One on several human development counts.

But huge challenges confront her, not the least religious extremism in a nation of pious, conservative Muslims. Strong cultural mores, love for Bengali language and the considerable position women enjoy in the country’s economic well-being, give Bangladesh a unique place, not just in South Asia, but also in the Islamic world.

It helps India to stay close to a smaller, but self-assured, neighbour that, under Hasina’s stewardship has been most friendly. The two have learnt to resolve disputes and problems that can naturally arise along a 4,300 km border. Both sides need to work to maintain the high comfort levels in relationship that can grow to provide a role model for the region.

That it took them half-a-century to restore the mutual access that was disrupted after the 1965 India-Pakistan war shows that precious time was lost. With road, rail and sea infrastructure being expanded, the two can build on to mutual and regional advantage.  The Modi visit has seen pacts on vaccines to rains, technology to nuclear power.

Agree, geopolitics cannot be ignored. This is where Modi’s citing the Asean model provides a pointer for closer and wider economic relations. India needs to have a significant role in seeing Bangladesh graduate out of the LDC (less developed country) status in 2026.  

ALSO READ: Bangladesh Must Tick Healthcare Box Now

Defence cooperation where China dominates is almost a new area for India. Past Bangladesh governments have fought shy of Indian defence supplies and cooperation for fear of being attacked as India’s ‘agents’. With her opponents marginalized, Hasina seems to have shed this reservation. India needs to move carefully on this if it wants to compete with the Chinese, given their money power and a better delivery record. Successes with Bangladesh could set examples for India in its neighbourhood.

India has invested billions to earn goodwill in the last decade. Modi did well, with an eye on the future, to offer scholarships to the young and invited entrepreneurs to come and invest in India. Economic interest in each other is the key, if only it can be worked and extended to the larger region. Bangladesh provides the jumping board.  

Both harked back to the past, but in different ways. Modi’s reference to “effort and important role” played by Indira Gandhi in 1971 was niggardly, to say the least. He belittled it further with a “me too” about his own having staged a Satyagraha as a youth. He may have. Mention of Atal Bihari Vajpayee in that context was a party add-on.

Old-timers would recall how opposition leaders those days had adopted postures as per their ideology, picking holes while broadly supporting the Indira government’s efforts. Some impatiently wanted her to launch an instant attack on Pakistan. You can expect only this much grace from our politicos those days, and now, especially with elections in Assam and West Bengal. Mercifully, the Bengali-speaking Assamese, allegedly illegal migrants, were not called ‘termites’ during the current campaign.

The missing link was the Congress, now marginalized at home. It was once a movement in East Bengal during the anti-British struggle and gave prominent leaders to the entire region. The era of Indira Gandhi, Jyoti Basu and Pranab Mukherjee is gone. India, whatever the new leadership, needs to build on it, not belittle it.

The year 1971 was tumultuous. It gave India its first military victory in centuries. It forced surrender of 93,000 soldiers, yet quit it after three months. This remains unique. It gave birth to a nation. Those of us who witnessed it can count themselves lucky.

The writer can be reached at mahendraved07@gmail.com