US Billionaires And Trump’s MAGA Goal

Newspaper interview pieces are generally on predictable lines and very little of substance generally emerges from the discourse. This is specially the case when the interviewees hold sensitive offices in business and finance. They are not expected to say things that will offend the powers that be. Some will, however, dare cross the ‘Lakshman rekha’ when their business or wealth faces a threat from government policy changes.

For example, as the world has recently seen France’s richest man and the owner of luxury goods group LVMH (Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessy) Bernard Arnault coming down hard on the proposed 2 per cent tax on billionaires as an assault on France’s economy.

Arnault fired salvos at the new tax plan’s architect economist Gabriel Zucman as being “first and foremost a far-left activist out to pull down the liberal economic system.” Earlier, wealthy individuals in the UK were so frustrated with the abolition of non-domicile (non-dom) status that it triggered wealth leaving the country. India born steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal who made London home for nearly 30 years is reportedly considering the option to find a new abode – it could be Dubai where he is already an investor in real estate or Switzerland where he owns a chalet or somewhere else – following the change in tax rules.

Except when their income faces the prospect of being nixed by tax targeted at the rich, business leaders as a regulation will be discreet to a fault in their reaction to government policies not to their liking.

If that individual happens to be Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JP Morgan Chase then his interviews will be unfailingly pieces of art in choosing words and framing sentences that will leave the readers with the challenge to figure out what exactly is his stand on controversial subjects beyond hedging of words.

Thanks to Mayur Shetty of Times of India who recently spoke at length with Dimon who is managing affairs at the world’s largest bank that has among its clients many leading corporates and governments from around the world, we have the taste of a fine interview covering some highly contemporary but sensitive subjects. A battle of wits between the interviewee and the interviewer all through the conversation where the former will skilfully avoid any direct criticism of President Trump even while making his stand clear on controversial subjects.

Remember Dimon, a Harvard Business School MBA and a Baker scholar, runs an enormously large bank and financial services company based out of the US and, therefore, he can ill afford to be on the wrong side of President Trump. At the same time Dimon has a mind of his own and he knew before he sat down for the TOI interview that he would be required to discuss issues on tariffs, H-1B visas, immigration and Fed autonomy, etc.

ALSO READ: Trum And The Nightmare On Film Street

As the scene is unfolding, President Trump in his cherished mission to make America great again (MAGA), whatever that is, goes on making a series of announcements with implications for the rest of the world. These are causing worldwide dismay since they are found to be at odds with what America has always stood for.

The US President’s office wields enormous power. Even then, Trump is running roughshod over the Congress, judiciary and offices supposed to enjoy autonomy. He remains on this mission even while he is aware that he is having adversarial relationship with growing numbers of Americans. If anything, dislike for him is more intense abroad. In this growing gloominess, Trump thought it would help him to have the US tech Moguls over to dinner and make them after a hearty meal sing the praises of the President and his work. The proceedings were video recorded and were widely broadcast.

That meeting was attended by the likes of Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, Satya Nadella, Jeff Bezos and Sundar Pichai. One without exception expressed happiness with the way Trump was running the country. Asked by the President, each pledged big investment in the US in the coming days, But Elon Musk of Tesla, who spent an enormous $277 million to help Trump and some of his men win the elections was missing at the reception. This was because of his fallout with Trump after being engaged for a tempestuous 129 days in cutting Administration expenditure and government efficiency.

All the dinner attendees except for Gates whose foundation is engaged in spending billions of dollars for improvement of health of the poor across the continents and elimination of diseases, including HIV are using the services of technical hands of foreign origin – incidentally, the majority of them are Indians – who need H1-B visas to work out of the US.  The world has been thrown into a conundrum over the new requirement of a hefty fee of $100,000 for every new H1-B visa application.

When Shetty wanted to know the likely impact of changes in visa rules and HIRE (Halting International Relocation of Employment) Act, which is still at the Bill stage, the JP Morgan chairman said: “For us, visas matter because we move people around globally – experts who get promoted to new jobs in different markets.” Expectedly, Dimon will not allow himself to be pinned down to saying anything critical about the US Administration’s moves on restricting entry of foreign nationals. The most he will concede is that he will be engaging with stakeholders and policymakers on the subject.

From the interview, one can figure out where his sympathies lie on talents be it relating to technology, business and education continuing to move into America. Informing Shetty that his grandparents were Greek immigrants, Dimone says: “The US still needs to remain an attractive destination… We should remain a very welcoming country.” His travel around the world has made him experience “a strong tech diaspora.” The world outside of America, according to Dimone, is gaining in competitiveness “in technology, innovation and growth… more competition with America benefits everyone.”

Dimon has said very little on the President’s tariff moves except for saying tariffs are modestly inflationary and a little recessionary. Much will, however, be read in his saying: “I’m in the free-trade camp other than with regards to national security.” To this correspondent the piece de resistance of the interview is when Dimone dilates on globalisation, which he doesn’t see ending even while it “dipped a little a couple of years ago. Globalisation “slows down occasionally and sometimes even reverses along certain trade routes. But I don’t believe globalisation is going away. If you look at the trade numbers, they haven’t really declined.”

What readers have missed in the interview is Shetty not asking Dimone about development of clean energy such as solar and wind power and bio fuels as the US President remains decidedly against growth of renewable energy. In fact, he will never miss an occasion to mock at nations engaged in developing alternatives to fossil fuel based energy.

Trump: The Nightmare on Film Street

All pretence of friendship with India and its “great guy” prime minister is, to use a popular Bollywood term, benaqab, Hindustani for torn apart, as the leader of the most powerful nation strikes at the world’s largest filmmaker.

Mr Donald Trump has struck again, at India, yet not singling it out, and hurting it the most. There are no surprises, given his showbiz background and in any case, he had talked about it in May.

A massive 100% tariff — import duty or tax — on movies made “outside the US” comes as another major blow to India, which has been facing his wrath, with blips of bonhomie, for the past three months and more.

The Indian diaspora in the US spends around $100 million a year to watch Telugu, Hindi, Tamil, Malayalam, Punjabi, Bengali and other Indian language movies, according to the Producers Guild of India.

In his zeal to punish India, Trump has hit the space and beyond, as it is unclear how such a tariff on movies, which are software, would be implemented, given that modern film-making is mostly digital and done across countries, with much of the production work being online.

Shah Rukh Khan and Deepika Padukone’s Jawan, Prabhas-starrer Baahubali series, and Ranbir Kapoor-Tripti Dimri’s Animal are among the movies that did significant business in the US recently. Recent Indian movies that earned major revenues in the US, as per IMDb include Baahubali 2 at $22 million, followed by Kalki 2898AD, Pathaan, RRR, Pushpa 2, Jawan, and Animal, all grossing $15-19 million each.

But one impact could be on ticket prices if producers pass on the tax burden to consumers. The viewership is not confined to 5.4 million Indians alone. Traditionally, other South Asians also view Indian language movies, such as Pakistanis for Punjabi and Hindi, Bangladeshi for Bengali, or Lankan Tamils, besides locals who enjoy diverse films.

After what is widely seen as a personal pique at India not endorsing him for the Nobel Prize for Peace, it is tempting to say that Mr Trump is “jealous, simply jealous” to imitate Indian megastar Amitabh Bachchan in Cheeni Kum. Mr Trump is jealous because the USA, home to Hollywood, ranks fourth in global film production.  

With over 2,500 films made annually, India firmly retains its position as the world’s top film producer. This is not new, but it raises a tempting question: If the global ranking is determined by geopolitics and geo-economics, how about ‘geo-cinematics’?

The ranking would then place India ahead of China, which made 800 films, a third of India’s output, and overtakes Japan’s 676 films. And, the mighty United States is in fourth place with a poor 510. Indeed, it dropped from second place in 2022.

Hollywood, Trump had lamented in May, “is dying”.

To his chagrin, perhaps, multipolarity is at work. Forget India for a moment, for the first time in cinematic history, China has overtaken both Japan and the United States in terms of film production.

The situation is contrasting. The Chinese score thanks to a surge during 2023-24, but despite its economy experiencing a slowdown, footfalls in cinema theatres are down by eight per cent because of the domestic money crunch.

Globally, however, the good news is that people, stressed by climate change, growing economic disparities, and multiple conflicts raging around them, are flocking to cinema halls and multiplexes that offer a few hours’ comfort. The new data shows that global box office revenues are also projected to rise in 2025, surpassing USD 34 billion, driven in part by this production rebound.

Another good news is that global film production has picked up after the COVID-19 pandemic. Closed film studios, a ban on outdoor film shooting and people locked up in their offices are a thing of the forgettable past, hopefully, never to return.

Looking at 2026 and 2027, film release slates appear as robust as they were before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The production is expected to have grown significantly again in 2024, according to figures processed by David Hancock of Omdia, a US-based database, and Claire Rousseau, Jeff Slee and Sacha Wunsch-Vincent of the World Intellectual Property Organisation (WIPO). Readied this month, it is scheduled for release in April next year.

Innovations driven by technological advancements have helped. With China leading the pack, animated films continue to play a key role in box office growth, the data shows. New marketing and release strategies are also emerging with strong potential to boost cinema revenues.

ALSO READ: A Cinematic Rid – From Celluloid To Digital

What about Europe, especially France, where it all began, at the end of the 19th century? Spain retains fifth place globally, leading the European pack. The number of French films produced annually has remained consistent, with 231 films in 2024, matching the pre-pandemic average. Total investment in French cinema in 2024 hit €1.44 billion, a record high, driven by both domestic and foreign contributions. The leaders are the United Kingdom, Germany, the United States (as minority co-producer), and Sweden.

In 2024, the UK’s film and high-end TV production sector saw total investment rebound to approximately £5.6 billion, a 31% increase from 2023 but still below the 2022 peak, with films accounting for £2.1 billion. The actual number of films dipped from 207 in 2023 to 191.

But in comparison with what is happening elsewhere, Europe has taken the back seat. While holding its own, a commentary in The Guardian, London, indicates that the continent is basking in its famed international film festivals at Locarno, Venice, Karlovy Vary and Cannes. Yet, Iceland retains the top position in per capita film production, followed by Estonia, Switzerland, Latvia and Croatia.

In Africa, Nigeria remains the leader. Egypt nearly doubled its production of national feature films, adding 19 more films, while Kenya (+77%) and Morocco (+79%) also saw notable increases.

Globally, economic might seems to matter less. Movies are where eyeballs are, mainly in Asia and Latin America. India and China are among the nine middle-income economies represented among the top 20 global film producers. The others are Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Türkiye, the Philippines, Iran and Indonesia as per films produced in 2023. Mexico continues its strong performance, ranking 8th globally and securing a spot in the top 10 for the third consecutive year.

To return to India, although its film production, in 20 different languages, hovered below 2,000 in the pre-COVID era, it was still the highest. The surge has come with the advent of the OTT (over-the-top) platforms that provide home entertainment, and with fast urbanisation, the growth of multiplex cinema halls.

But India’s film production is not “Breaking News”. Earning-wise, the Indian film industry’s annual revenue is in the range of ₹15,000–18,000 crore (about USD 1.8–2.2 billion) from theatrical box office alone (2023 figures). This is smaller than Hollywood’s USD 11–12 billion and China’s film market (USD 7–8 billion). 

The trend of money invested and recovered remains unchanged. A small percentage of films earn the bulk of the revenue. Industry estimates say 10–15% of films are profitable. Another 20–25% recovery costs but partially. The majority (60%+) fail to recover investments.

Big-budget Hindi, Telugu, Tamil, and sometimes Kannada films dominate the box office and streaming rights sales. Hindi films earn 33% of total box office revenue. Telugu+Tamil films: together 45%. These industries often lead in blockbuster hits.

Other languages (Kannada, Malayalam, Marathi, Bengali, Punjabi, etc.): 20%, though a few Malayalam and Kannada films recently punched above their weight. The bright side is that technology enables the release of a film in multiple languages. A multilingual India, with language raising emotional issues in the political and cultural arena, is integrating film watchers.

Domestic Box Office remains the main source of earnings, which is by far limited compared to the huge number of releases. Overseas Box Office: important for Hindi, Telugu, Tamil films (US, Gulf, UK are big markets).

India has a marked presence on Digital Rights or OTT, thanks to a huge domestic market and the diasporas. Revenue is rising sharply—sometimes OTT deals alone cover the production cost of mid-size films. Satellite TV & Music Rights: smaller but steady revenue streams.

If the total Indian box office is Rs ₹12,000–13,000 crore in a given year, that averages ₹5–6 crore per film—but this number is highly misleading since only the top films earn hundreds or thousands of crores, while most earn little or nothing.

In sum, India makes the most films, but only a handful succeed commercially. The industry is high-volume, low-average-revenue, sustained by a few blockbuster hits, strong regional industries, and growing digital rights sales. Call it ‘freedom’ if you must – the old laissez-faire continues.

‘Trump Has Proved Himself To Be An Untrustworthy Partner’

Joy Ghosh, an entrepreneur and founder of a tech-based initiative, says the US President has lived up to his image of kicking up chaos across the world market. His views:

By doubling duties on Indian goods and threatening about $50 billion worth of exports, Trump is only trying to arm-twist India to manipulate the amount of crude oil India is exporting from Russia. The move is clearly a part of Washington’s so-called penalties on India for buying cheap crude oil and military equipment from Moscow and, in essence, helping Russia sustain its war against Ukraine. Besides India, Brazil is the only nation which is facing such unjustified sanctions, for similar reasons.

The new tariffs on India are going to impact mostly the labour intensive and high-value export sectors such as textile & apparels, gems & jewellery, shrimps, carpets & handicrafts, agri-food, metals & chemicals and machinery. Indeed, it has sent visible shock waves on the markets and our stock index.

Thus while 66% of India’s exports to the US ($60.2 billion) will now face the 50% tariff, about 3.8% of exports ($3.4 billion), primarily auto components will also face a 25% tariff and the remaining 30.2% of exports ($27.6 billion) will continue to enter the US market duty-free.

The levy is not only “prohibitive”, driving many Indian goods out of the US market but it has already stopped the US customers to place new orders. With these tariffs coming in effect, the exports could well start coming down by 20 to 30 per cent from next month as exporters see limited scope for diversifying or moving to other markets or selling in the domestic market.

ALSO READ: Can Donald Trump Stonewall BRICS?

Whatever America is doing today has been a part of its age old diplomatic tradition of arbitrary and transactional dealings. The problem is that President Donald Trump is seen taking two steps forward, three steps back and a few steps to the right and left, spreading chaos and confusion in most parts of the world.

In India’s case, these tariffs will not only wipe out our competitiveness in the largest export market but it will also threaten billions in exports and thousands of jobs. We, as Indian businessmen, are not left with many versatile options to handle this at present – as they are only concentrated on negotiating or diversifying export markets, offering more concessions, etc. It is also rightly said that in an era of using economic power as a weapon, survival is not limited to avoiding confrontation but to finding newer opportunities to counter the threats.

The crux of the entire situation is that if heads of states start acting arbitrarily in international relations, then whether enemies are scared or not, friends definitely start moving away. The way Trump is behaving with countries like India, Brazil and South Africa, Brazil and South Africa are looking at America as a suspect. It is also possible in the coming days that BRICS may strengthen the coordination between the member countries further, decreasing the dependency on dollar in future trades.

While Trump says this is punishment for India’s purchase of discounted oil from Russia, which he argues helps fund Russian president Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine, India is the only major economy to be hit with such “secondary tariffs,” even though China is the largest overall buyer of Moscow’s crude. At the same time, Trump’s tariffs have opened the door for closer India-China ties and other BRICS countries to take major steps to rejuvenate their economies with stronger inter-circle trade bonds.

As told to Rajat Rai