Bella Ciao in Tehran!

Really, if you look at it carefully, it’s not so complex in Iran. Nor is it in Greenland, or Venezuela.

Not even in Ukraine, after thousands dead on both sides, there is neither war, nor peace. Only a static and silent expanse of a freezing Kiev condemned into darkness, the electricity system destroyed by Russian drones as in last winter, its punishment given to the people of Ukraine.

These people were once part of their body and soul as citizens of Soviet Russia, whose families, together, hand in hand, made such great sacrifices in the war against fascism, and the defeat of Adolf Hitler.

So whatever happened to the glorious Trump Peace Plan to stop the Russia-Ukraine war?  Nothing. In the final instance, he seemed to be toeing the line of Putin, while bullying the president of Ukraine — hitherto backed by the West and US.

As in Gaza, where the killings continue. Trump said the West Bank will not be occupied by Israel, come what may. It is, as before, and the armed settlements are aggressively expanding.

It seems, indeed, that Trump’s trumpet is not blowing.

Let’s look at Iran.

Thousands have poured onto the streets against the authoritarian Islamic regime to protest against joblessness, corruption, all-round scarcity, and the abyss of economic doom. Also, they want modernity, freedom for women, and a farewell to the regressive Ayotollahs!

This is a genuine demand of the people of Iran, and this angst and anger has exploded again and again. Besides, they want democracy, justice and freedom, not a puppet regime imposed by the Americans and Israelis, like the Shah of Iran.

Ironically, predictably, Trump and his allies start talking of human rights in Iran. And democracy! Said Trump: “Help is on its way.”

So why is Iran is in such a deep crisis?

They will not tell you. Neither the establishment, nor the Western media.

It is the relentless and endless US sanctions — backed by its Western allies.  The sanctions have destroyed the economy in Iran, with terrible social consequences for its people. Ask Cuba, who have so bravely fought against the sanctions since the Cuban revolution.

Remember Mahsa Amini? The young Kurdish woman tortured and murdered by the Morality Police for allegedly wearing the hijab in a wrong manner?

Women of Iran exploded on the streets. Bonfires in public squares. Dancing on traffic junctions. Slogans and boycott in schools and colleges, girls and boys together. Funerals became spaces for collective protests. The hijab was burnt in bonfires. Women cut their hair in public squares.

The Italian protest anthem, Bella Ciao, was sung in Persian, by scores of women, solo, in chorus; the song was celebrated on the streets, inside homes, and in social media. The women of Iran became the inspirational icons for women and girls all over the world.

And what was their slogan, which became global: Woman. Life. Freedom!

Iran and Russia under US and Western sanctions. Did they put sanctions on Israel?

No. You see, there were no human rights violations in Gaza. Nothing happened.

The same media is now doing the rounds with dead bodies in Iran – thousands etc. No fact-check, no sources. Wish they could do the same in Gaza when the genocide was in full swing. How many dead — 80,000; 150,000, 200,000?  

Thousands are still buried in the rubble, almost everything in sight has been bombed and ravaged, schools, hospitals, homes, universities, etc, and tens of thousands are living in terrible, sub-human conditions in fluttering tents in this freezing cold.

That’s cool, is it?

So whatever happened to human rights and democracy in Gaza? Will the criminals and mass murderers in the Israeli regime be ever punished?

Sections of the big media, like the government in UK, refused to even accept that it is a genocide in Gaza. So what is it – Bibi’s Western-style democracy, as in UK, Germany, USA?

People are on the streets in Iran seeking relief from severe economic distress, a modern democracy, an end to entrenched corruption, as in all societies — a future of hope for their children.  A liberating, enlightened, democratic space their citizens, especially for women and girls. They are not seeking a puppet regime installed by Bibi and Trump – and there are scores of videos proving that.

So why did Trump and Bibi chicken out on Iran?

As American broadcaster Kim Iverson said in her show, and other reports have implied, apart from genuine protesters, there were allegedly others who had penetrated the movement — trained, armed with guns and weapons, satellite technology, bombs. They have been video-recorded and discovered. They were fighting open and secret battles with the regimes forces, and had a sinister agenda, including killing genuine protesters. They were reportedly MOSSAD agents. Finally, they were stopped, exposed, defeated, eliminated, as the Iran government has disclosed without naming anyone.

The unconfirmed story is that the alleged Mossad-American Mission in Tehran, while working as underground catalysts in the movement, tried to use genuine protests as a front, but failed. Usually, this is one of their time-tested templates. Sometimes, they succeed.

Besides, Bibi’s war machine in is fatigue. Despite billions pumped by the US, as by Joe Biden earlier, they don’t seem to have enough arms and ammunitions. Their young soldiers are tired, suffering with multiple post-trauma syndrome, suicides are being reported. Bibi is internationally isolated. Even one of the woman editors of The Economist, the prestigious magazine, in a recent interview, told him in as many words.

And more so, Israel got badly bashed when they last attacked Iran – the invincible Iron Dome could not stop an incessant rain of Iranian missiles, which destroyed many parts Israel. With thousands under siege, people had to live underground for long periods. A society under siege — not good for the mind. That is why, then, Bibi agreed to a quick ceasefire.

Even now, there are reports that since the plot has been lost, and Bibi can’t risk being badgered again, a war with Iran will be self-destructive. More so, unconfirmed reports have informed that China has given air and military cover to Iran, apart from other invisible help.

Besides, the Middle-East might go up in flames. That is why, the American stooges – Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey – all lined up to plead to Trump. No war with Iran please.

More so, Trump has messed up badly in Venezuela. Clearly, he wanted to divert attention from the Epstein files, which will take him down eventually. To grab the oil is his natural instinct. It did not work.

All top oil companies like Exxonmobil have refused to enter Venezuela – they have learnt their lessons in the past when the oil industry was nationalized. Besides, Latin America is not Gaza—the Columbian president declared that he will take up arms if necessary, Cuba has refused to talk to the US, the Mexican president has stood up in steadfast solidarity. Several Cuban soldiers guarding Modura were murdered – they will not forget it easily.

And Trump and his aids must look up the history of Latin America – from the bullet to the ballet; from Che to Chavez. If Trump and oil companies enter Venezuela, armed guerilla armies just might sprout in every nook and corner of this continent – like old times.

That is why, Venezuela is now on pause.

And Greenland?

Danish and Greenland ministers refused to succumb to the Americans. In their meeting at the White House with JD Vance, they said categorically, we don’t agree with you.

Now armed forces from across Europe have arrived in Greenland, as a symbolic gesture. For once, these American allies have shown some spine. NATO thereby is in a flux.

So Greenland is not an easy real estate deal – buy one, get three free. Hence, the pause button might come into play again.

Ukraine, Venezuela, Iran, Gaza. All the projects have failed. There is no ceasefire in Gaza. The Trump Reviera will perhaps be built in a futuristic science-fiction dream sequence.

As of now, it’s all Topsy-Turvy, and nothing seems Hunky Dory. ICE, paramilitary, masked, armed, nasty — unleashed by the US administration, is not melting; and the protesting masses are not relenting. F… T….  —  they are singing and dancing on a new protest anthem at Times Square, New York, and in other cities. The anthem has gone viral.

As of now, indeed, it’s Bella Ciao in Tehran! As beautiful and inspiring as ever.

Will Venezuela Be A Patiala, Mewar Or A Punjab After The Invasion?

President Trump’s daring intervention in extricating President Nicolás Maduro from his palatial, well-guarded home has attracted much criticism and concern about the post War World order. In a previous article, I had suggested that it is on the way out and a new world is emerging. Whether this is the beginning of a new wave of colonialism or imperialism or genuine multipolar spheres of influence will probably be shaped by what US now does with Venezuela and Chinese-Russia reaction to it.

Generally, the US has attempted bottom up regime changes. It has encouraged insurrections, rebel movements etc with the aim of circling the leadership and forcing it out. Or in some cases, as in Iraq, a direct attack. They have generally been messy affairs, with collapse of the administration, counter rebellions and unrest. In many cases the US failed.

This time, Trump’s policy has gone for a top down regime change approach. The President of Venezuela has been physically removed and in his place, his deputy Delcy Rodriguez has taken over. The regime and administration remains intact. No grand plans for nation building, elections or complete replacement of the governing system appear to be on the horizon. However President Trump is going to meet the Nobel prize winner Maria Corina Nachado, who has often been called the real leader in waiting. It remains to be seen.

Politics is never an easy road especially when going through regime transitions. There is China, a parallel, perhaps untested power. China has nearly a trillion dollar invested in Venezuela with a major stake in its oil which it needs for its own development. If Venezuela slides away completely from it, respect for China will be considerable undermined around the world. China has interests almost everywhere now and heavily invested both politically and financially in South America.

Russia too has close relationship with Venezuela. Maduro has been Russia’s constant supporter in international platforms such as United Nations. Russia vetoed any attempts at UN by leading western countries to delegitimise Maduro’s election victories. There has been close military and intelligence cooperation between the two countries.

Clearly the intelligence failed Maduro. Neither China nor Russia was able to protect him from a surprise attack by Elite US forces. Maduro either didn’t have the same level of sophisticated support that Pakistan had during operation Sindoor or Chinese equipment didn’t work. In the post Maduro era both China and Russia seem inadequate.

Trump has played like a business man that he is. The attack and its aftermath are similar to hostile corporate takeovers that turn pragmatic. The target company remains intact with all its staff and management in place except at the very top; ownership changes. Reforms are brought in later, through voluntary and some times forced redundancies. The targeted company’s policies, marketing, relationships and priorities are changed. The only thing that changes is the ownership or rather the ultimate ‘Boss’. Although not all takeovers are as smooth; sometimes the entire management is changed.

Changes in political leadership sometimes follow this pattern. There are examples in British colonialism in India. After defeating or threatening the Maharajah with attack, detention or exile, many Maharajahs chose to make their Kingdom part of the Empire as a client or subsidiary state while the Maharajah still had pretensions of being ‘sovereign’.

The Maharajah enjoyed all the trappings of the throne, such as wealth, salutes, the head gear, the servants, the ministers etc. But sitting next to the Maharajah was the British political agent who was the real master and decision maker on behalf of the British crown. Essentially the Maharajah managed the Kingdom for the British and paid a tribute. In return the British provided protection. There were no palace coups or attacks by neighbours. The big Maharajahs also got to attend balls etc in London.

The Kingdom of Patiala and many of the Kingdoms of Rajasthan, such as Mewar, Banswara etc, entered into these arrangements with the British. In fact there were nearly 565 such princely states around India by 1947.

But some Kingdoms were too proud to become vassal states. They were finally annexed and their entire ruling regime deposed, exiled or imprisoned. Punjab was one such state. While initially the state became a protectorate under the British, there was general feeling among the British that the Sikhs will rise to take back the Kingdom. A small insurrection was treated as evidence of this. Maharajah Duleep Singh was removed from his subsidiary throne and his entire family exiled, imprisoned or controlled. Duleep himself was converted to Christianity, brought to Britain and given a pension. His mother, accused of the rebellion, had a less fortunate experience.

Similarly, the fate of Venezuela now hangs between being a client state (Kingdom) with real sovereignty resting with US. A regime in place will run the state. There may even be elections to please the people, but most decisions will be taken in Washington. Venezuela’s resources will be at the disposal of the Trump regime. He is already making way for American Oil companies to start investing in Venezuela and has told China to take its investments out. Maduro’s Vice President, Delcy Rodriguez, has become President and seems compliant to the ‘client state’ arrangement at the moment.

Will it succeed? It would appear that it will. Venezuela’s leadership has been known to be corrupt. It enjoyed power and wealth. If wealth is guaranteed and power within the domestic field is ensured, Venezuela will be another Patiala or Mewar. The Venezuelan leadership know how to suppress dissent. This well established regime can bring the army, the enforcers and the civil service to ensure compliance among the population. It will crush anti-US dissenters to ensure US lordship or paramountcy as they called in colonial period. Previously it used the apparatus to crush pro US dissenters against Maduro regime. They are strengthened by the fact that Trump is not into ideology. He simply wants a country aligned to US regional and international interests.

Trump is following the McKinley-Roosevelt doctrine of securing regional power through territorial acquisition, protectorates and creating sphere of influence that even went wider. Monroe also believed in interventionist foreign policy but stop other western countries competing with the US in western sphere. The attack on Venezuela and now threats to Greenland are not new policy but follow an old one. However it could get into trouble.

Venezuela could be gripped by nationalism of the type that started in Iraq and during colonialism in the Punjab. The US may then ‘annex’ Venezuela as a ‘colonised state’. Its excuse will be to ensure peace and stability. That will be a fate close to that of colonised Punjab. If the uprising is as powerful as in Afghanistan, it could spell disaster for USA as Venezuela is on its door step.

But the chances of such a resistance are not high. Both Iraq and Afghanistan are different civilisations whose people could not tolerate non-Islamic power over them.

There is a third scenario. Russia or China, or both, may well incite an insurgency and instate a regime friendly to them. This will be a dangerous moment. Moreover Russia is too preoccupied and China hasn’t really been involved in regime changes since the Mao period and therefore does not have the skills or experience.

So far it seems that Venezuela will become a client state of the US like the princely states of India during colonialism.

Will Trump Finally Get the Nobel?

It took me four weeks to get to the fourth sentence in my proposed lengthy commendation for President Donald Trump for the Nobel Prize, in the hope I will be invited to the White House and be feted like the smiley neighbourhood ruler, Asim Munir (Field Marshall of course). Then just as I put a dot to the sentence and was getting to the fifth sentence, my phone social media went ping, ping, ping and more pings. Trump had invaded Venezuela. Not only that, he extricated Venezuela’s President, Maduro. Some call it kidnap, illegal, against international law, end of the Europe’s beloved rule based order etc etc. Social media is full of this ‘faked, fake news’. Is a double negative a positive? Is it faked that action is illegal is a fake news?

It is a personal dilemma for me. I have to start the commendation all over again. May have to do a lot of spin doctoring! Will the Nobel Committee even look at the envelope, let alone read the commendation! There goes my attempt to upstage Munir!

But Eureka moment! They did give Nobel to Obama, just as he put his first polished shoe into White House. Immediately after getting the plaque to hang on to the wall, now probably demolished to make way for Trump to learn ballet, Obama felt ‘freedom’ and started bombing the world.

To be fair to Trump, he did hang around for ten months, without engaging in American hobby of full scale ‘isolationist’ intervention wars. That is a term, no political scientist has thought of yet! You read it first here. He tried the peace talks.

But pesky Netanyahu and Hamas and that spoilsport Zelenski egged on by British Starmer have not stopped the wars that Trump was going to end in days and a few months. Even the most patient people lose patience. It’s complicated by the Russian ‘Nyet’ and Saudi Arabian ‘la’.

Trump, a very patient man, after all he hung around all of Biden’s Presidency to bid for another term, must have finally decided that he will make it easy for the Nobel Committee to give him the prize by joining the many others who got the ‘Peace Prize’ after killing sprees. After all Mr Nobel invented the Dynamite that killed many people and then set up the ‘Peace Prize’.

There is Arafat whose leadership of PLO led violence resulted in the frisking of passengers at airports when plane after plane was being hijacked. There is Menachem Begin, who gave the Palestinians sleepless nights and got the Nobel for Peaceful nights. And then Henry Kissinger, the grim reaper of Cambodia and the architect of carpet bombing.

Nelson Mandela also got the Nobel. He was the founder of the armed wing of ANC, and refused to renounce armed ‘resistance’ when he was released. Not sure what his Nobel was for – for remaining peaceful in detention?

And of course there is Aung Sun Suu Kyi, who like Obama, got the prize although before stepping into office, but once in power tacitly approved the genocide of Rohingya.

The Nobel peace prize is very confusing, keeping me awake for nights as I think of redrafting the commendation for the self-confessed Greatest President ever, Donald Trump. All I want in return is to sit at the Oval Office and be thanked. Is the Nobel given once you have done the killing and become pious like Ashoka or is it given just as you get the passcode for the Kill Switch. It’s confusing.

On second hand, I could recommend our greatest unborn but live Neta, for NOT commending the Trump for Nobel, unlike the neighbour. Surely the committee will honour him for integrity. On the other hand they might not. They may not cherish being bear hugged in front of cameras as the Neta collects the Prize and all of Bhakts start hugging every European visiting Bharat Mata. You know how these North Europeans are! They like clinging to someone at night but daytime like to keep distance of a yard.

ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) Venezuela

Venezuela Agrees To Supply Oil To India In Lieu Of Pending Dividend: Petroleum Secy

Venezuela has agreed to supply crude oil to ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) in lieu of the pending dividend, Secretary Petroleum Pankaj Jain said.

“They have agreed to give us some oil in lieu of its pending OVL dues. We are waiting for lifting dates,” the Petroleum Secretary said.

This comes after the US eased sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector in October. The sanctions were imposed to punish Maduro’s government following his 2018 re-election.

Earlier, Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said that India will buy Venezuelan oil, adding that Indian refineries are capable of processing the heavy oil from the South African country.

Speaking to reporters at an event, Puri stated that New Delhi is willing to resume oil import with any nation that is not under sanction.

“India will buy Venezuelan oil. Many of our refineries including one in Paradip are capable of processing heavy oil from Venezuela. We are willing to resume (oil import) with anyone who is not under sanction,” he had said.

“We are in a situation where we are using crude oil 5 million barrels/ per day. And it is increasing every day. If Venezuela oil comes to market we will welcome it,” he added.

India last imported Venezuelan crude in 2020 when the U.S. imposed secondary sanctions on the nation. The U.S. imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela to punish Maduro’s government following his 2018 re-election.

The South American country is producing some 850,000 barrels per day (BPD) of crude with a target of soon reaching 1 million BPD.

India, the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer, has embarked on a strategic journey to reshape its energy landscape.

As a nation heavily reliant on overseas oil, accounting for over 80 per cent of its needs, India aims to curtail its crude import bill and bolster its refining capabilities.

This pursuit has led India to explore diverse sources, and one country that has caught its attention is Venezuela.

Venezuela, a historical player in the global oil industry, has been producing oil since 1914. With proven oil reserves of 299,953,000,000 barrels, as of 2016, Venezuela stands as one of the world’s leading holders of oil reserves, representing about 18.2 per cent of the global total.

India, eyeing opportunities to diversify its oil sources and strengthen its refining capabilities, is keenly exploring collaborations and partnerships with Venezuela. (ANI)

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