It is now accepted that the world is in transition. Several dynamics are in a flux. There is European Occidentalism still trying to hang on to universalism and globalisation on the one hand. There is China resisting universalism but happy with economic globalisation as it has benefitted it immensely. There is Russia challenging the western based ‘rule based’ order, meaning boundaries and territories remain as they were ordained after World War II and decolonisation and international treaties guide the world. And then there is Trump, suddenly woken up and realised that the rule based order, economic globalisation and wars to keep others in check was being financed largely by the USA that now has a debt of $36 Trillion.
The United States cannot continue to bear the burden of policing the world, helping it ‘develop’ and propping western hegemony. Some of the countries that have been helped with economic development are China, now the 2nd largest economy, and India, now the 5th largest economy. It makes no sense that the American tax payer should be paying in debt for these economies to thrive. China’s debt in comparison is $10 Trillion while India is only $770 Billion
The United States has been waging wars to ensure western hegemony. The US was perpetually being pumped up by its European allies to be the ‘world leader’, to be the ‘leader of the Free world’ whatever that is, to be the champion of democracy and human rights etc. Britain was a key mistress in this, flattering and whispering in the ears of the USA that without it the world will become full of barbarians. Only the USA can keep order, they said to it.
American think tanks are full of British and European ‘experts’ with some commonwealth sourced ‘academics’ schooled in leading western universities, writing almost identical ‘researched’ articles about impending doomsday if the United States did not play the role of world leader. They controlled the ‘international relations’ discourse, political science ideas and even thinking in economic and legal fields.
The institution further legitimising all this has been the United Nations. It is largely funded by the USA. Its institutional ideology has been constructed by Britain, France and USA mostly. And its senior staff are also ‘schooled’ in almost same universities.
This convenient state of world order has been called Pax Americana and ‘rule based’ order. Whenever there was a substantive challenge, order was restored by violence by finding an excuse for war.
Again it was the United States and its colossal spending power that led these punishments to erring countries and lately groups with wars, sanctions and coups. Then 9/11 happened
ALSO READ: Trump And The New World Order
During colonialism, it was European countries that bore the brunt of these financial costs and manpower loss. After the Second World War, an impoverished Europe, flattered the United States to take the crown, while Europeans benefitted on the back of Pax Americana.
China has stealthily crept from a poverty stricken country pushed into that State by colonialism and its own internal conflicts. It has now become the second largest economy. It is a leader in manufacturing and even in technology. China has nurtured economic, diplomatic and political relationships with most regions of the world. And without embarking on wars, (except small ones such as the Indo- China war of 1962), China has almost caught up with the United States. It cannot be pushed over now.
It appears that Trump is now leading q section of Americans who have reflected on all this and understand that while Europe piggy backed on its apparent success, the country has borne the costs and the manpower loss in propping the ‘rule based order’. They know that its potential has reached its limits as they see China and India have benefitted from it.
With BRICS looking at developing an alternative currency system, the future of the dollar cannot be guaranteed as the main reserve currency of the world. If it starts to slide, then the debt will start to bite. The USA will find it difficult to raise immense amounts of money. Currently each American citizen carries a debt of $106000 to finance this ‘rule based order’
It is not surprising that the Trump group has turned on its own allies around the world and more or less announced that the USA is no longer interested in Pax Americana. The message seems to be that if Europe and Canada want to carry on with their vision of hegemony and ‘rule based order’, then they can finance it and they can send their armies to fight for it. Canada seems eager to get into the vacuum and lead the ‘western rule based order’.
The world is now in transition. Russia has no interest in sticking to the current boundaries. It says it has security concerns. China is slowly inching towards dominating international institutions. The Middle East is slowly moving away from Pax Americana. Turkey has ambitions of becoming the modern version of the Ottoman Empire and possibly restore the Caliph.
Trump’s so called trade wars make sense. He is asking Americans to tighten the belt. He does not want to subsidise the global economy with ever mounting debt or fund wars for western hegemony. He seems to want the USA to be like any other country and charge tariffs as needed to protect the American economy. He also wants to stop spending ludicrous amounts on protracted wars. His team don’t seem to be interested in the formula, subsidise global trade, finance ideological institutions and fund wars.
Transitions do not always go smoothly. There is a great deal of uncertainty. Trump’s USA is trying hard to prize Russia away from China. It was a mistake in the first place to push it away. However, it remains to be seen whether Russia will take the bait. It may decide to stick with a partner that supported it in its most difficult time.
The unknown factor is China. No doubt China will have game planned all this for a few years. China’s relations with other countries is transactional and of course politically expedient. It does not offer an ideological camaraderie that the west offers such as democracy, human rights, sovereignty etc.
China has not engaged in political intrigues that some western countries are masterful at. Will it be able to stand up to the challenge the USA has thrown in the hat? The USA has decided to play on China’s own turf, that is trade and economic muscle. Unless these two very different civilisations negotiate co-existence, there could be a lot of collateral damage. The one prediction that can be made with some confidence is that Occidental Universalism is now dying and western dictated ‘rule based order’ belongs to yesterday.