Wherever you are in
this recently-turned-surreal world, you’re either locked down at home; or
self-isolated with minimal social contact; or, in the worst case, quarantined
somewhere. In India, the entire population has been locked down now since March
24, and people’s movement has been severely restricted. The lucky ones have
work that they can do from home; the less fortunate are seeing their incomes
dwindle. Elsewhere in the world, such as in Finland where I temporarily reside,
the population is so sparse that voluntary self-isolation and social distancing
are thought to be enough to curb the spread of the deadly Covid virus that has
held the world in suspended animation.
But no matter where
you are, the weeks of isolation have probably begun to take their toll and
affect your life in more ways than you could have imagined. For those eking out
a living at the margins of the economy such as daily wage earners, casual
workers, or those employed in the informal sectors (in India that means more
than 80% of the workforce), the lockdown is like a devastating blow to their
lives, a blow from which they could take months, if not years, to recover. For
others, it has changed their lives in lesser but still significant ways.
Some symptoms of those
changes are palpable. When liquor sales were allowed in several Indian
locked-down states, queues, some of them albeit socially-distanced, snaked
outside liquor shops, and, in some places, stretched for several kilometres.
Alcohol-deprived, locked-down denizens just wanted to stock up on booze, which
to many is a convenient aid to escape the monotony and depression that sets in
when movement is restricted, economic fortunes seem uncertain, and fear and
anxiety looms large. The queues outside alcohol shops were probably longer than
those outside stores that sold essentials such as food during the lockdown.
Several state
governments, which get to set their own excise duties on liquor, raised the
rate of taxation, some by as much as 70%, trying to maximise the revenues that
can earn in an economy that has sputtered to a halt. These high prices for
booze are unlikely to decline even after the Corona virus scare has ended (and
no one still knows when that could happen).
Alcohol consumption
could be on the rise during the lockdown but there are less visible changes
that are already affecting people’s lives. Staying indoors, often with children
and other members of the family, 24X7 for weeks on end can take its toll
psychologically. Even in a developed country such as Finland, police admit to
getting increased number of complaints of domestic abuse and violence towards
women and children. In India, data is as yet unavailable for that sort of
behavioural changes but with entire families cooped up in (often) cramped
homes; strapped for cash; or for even food and other daily necessities, it
could be like ticking time-bombs.
With much of the
privileged world shifting to school education online during this period, many
parents feel the pressure to cope with enforcing discipline on their children
to adhere to the new norms of lessons via the internet—not an easy task,
particularly when their children are very young and unaccustomed to the
process. According to a few family therapists, in many cases, this could lead
to abnormal tensions within families and affect family members adversely.
Coupled with their own predicament—job cuts; reduced earnings; and the
uncertainties about the future—such pressures, not inconceivably, this could
lead to serious long-term psychological effects on people and even lead to
familial fragmentation.
No one knows yet when
the threat of the pandemic will ebb but psychologists and trend forecasters are
already talking about a new way of living that may emerge. In many countries,
notably in Europe, restrictions are being slowly relaxed. In Finland,
restaurants will be allowed to operate in a limited manner (no more than 50
diners at a time) from June1. Schools are being opened for 11 working days from
May 14, ostensibly to gauge whether the virus spreads further or not. In India,
in some cities, people are being allowed to move around between 7 am and 7 pm
in a sort of curfew relaxation. And standalone stores in many cities are now
operating normally. Yet, as the threat of the virus refuses to die down, people
have grown cautious about social mingling or being out and about in places
where there are others.
These are trends that
could come to stay. Many business models that are pinned on attracting volumes
or numbers of people to make them viable—such as big restaurants; sports
events; shopping malls; and so on—could be hit for a long time as customers and
consumers decide to err on the side of caution even after the restrictions are
gone. In some Chinese cities, after movie theatres were opened partially, they
had to be shut down again not because of the renewed spread of the virus but
because people just didn’t want to go and watch movies with others as they
normally would have.
The flipside of the
pandemic-led paralysis of society could be in the form of innovations. Artists
and musicians have already begun online virtual concerts on platforms such as
YouTube with a pay as you please business model. Restaurants are cutting their
overheads and focussing more on home deliveries of their fare as customer feel more
comfortable and secure eating at home rather than visiting public places. Air
travel is likely to change forever as business and leisure travel shrinks and
people and businesses use the Internet to get work done. For many businesses
that could lead to substantial reductions in cost.
Many may believe that
these will only be a short-term impact of the pandemic. But perhaps not. The
after-effects of the pandemic could be longer lasting. The ongoing crisis that
the world is experiencing could upend many of the ways in which we live,
communicate, and consume. The new normal after the Corona scare is over
(whenever that is) would be very different from what we have been used to till
now. It could be a not-so-brave new world.
