Bihar Politics Archives - Lokmarg

Bihar’s Record Turnout: A Verdict Beyond Numbers

By Sidharth MIshra 7th November 2025

Bihar’s first phase of assembly elections has thrown up a record that is as striking as it is significant — nearly 65% of the 3.75 crore registered voters across 121 constituencies turned up to cast their ballots. The official figure of 64.66% marks the highest-ever voter turnout in the history of the state. But beyond the arithmetic of percentages lies a deeper political and social churn, one that could redefine Bihar’s electoral landscape.

At first glance, this unprecedented turnout seems to signal heightened political engagement, possibly a desire for change or a reaffirmation of faith in the democratic process. Yet, a closer reading of the numbers tells a more nuanced story. The 2025 elections are being conducted after the Special Investigation of Rolls (SIR), a meticulous exercise by the Election Commission that pruned the state’s voter list. Bihar now has 7.24 crore electors—about 60 lakh fewer than before the roll revision. This “thinning” of the list means that even with a higher percentage of voters turning out, the absolute number of votes cast may not have increased significantly compared to 2020.

To put it simply, the rise of nearly eight percentage points in turnout translates to a real increase of only about 4–5% in terms of actual votes polled. Nevertheless, this figure still represents a politically charged electorate, especially given the multiple crosscurrents shaping Bihar’s politics today.

Stakes for NDA and INDIAlliance

The stakes in these polls are exceptionally high. The ruling NDA, led by the BJP, faces a formidable challenge from the Congress-backed INDIAlliance, spearheaded by RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav. Both alliances are almost neck and neck in terms of estimated vote share of 40% for the NDA and 39% for the INDIAlliance, setting the stage for one of the closest contests Bihar has witnessed in recent years.

The NDA enters the fray with the advantage of incumbency in governance, a network of loyal cadres, and the continued appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi among a section of the electorate. However, the fatigue factor is undeniable. After years of alternating coalitions, many voters, especially in urban centers and among younger demographics, are questioning whether the current model of governance has delivered on its promises of jobs and development.

For the INDIAlliance, these elections are a test of its ability to channel anti-incumbency sentiment into a coherent mandate. Tejashwi Yadav’s campaign has focused sharply on unemployment, agrarian distress, and migration — issues that resonate with the youth and working class. His outreach, laced with emotional appeals to Bihari pride and economic self-respect, has found traction in several districts, particularly in the Seemanchal and Magadh regions.

The X-Factor: Jan Suraaj

What adds a new dimension to Bihar’s 2025 election is the emergence of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj. The former poll strategist’s entry has disrupted the traditional bipolar narrative. With his message of governance reform, local empowerment, and clean politics, Kishor has drawn a distinct constituency — especially among educated youth, first-time voters, and sections disillusioned with the entrenched caste-driven politics of both major alliances.

Poll analysts broadly agree that Jan Suraaj could secure around 10% of the vote share. While this figure may not immediately translate into a large number of seats under the state’s first-past-the-post system, it has the potential to tilt outcomes in closely fought constituencies. In a contest where NDA and INDIAlliance are separated by a wafer-thin margin, the presence of a third force could prove decisive.

If the urban, educated, and aspirational youth — a demographic that both major alliances have been aggressively courting — were to shift their loyalty even partially towards Jan Suraaj, it could sound alarm bells for the NDA. The ruling alliance’s dominance rests on holding together its social coalition of upper castes, OBCs, and women voters. A dent among the youth, particularly in districts like Patna, Nalanda, Muzaffarpur, and Bhagalpur, could disrupt that arithmetic.

Reading the Mood Behind the Numbers

The record turnout also indicates a certain restlessness — a political awakening that transcends caste and community lines, though not entirely free of them. Bihar’s electorate has traditionally been deeply rooted in social identity politics, but rising literacy, exposure through migration, and a growing digital footprint are slowly altering the nature of voter engagement.

High turnout often suggests a desire for change, yet it can also signify renewed faith in the democratic process under stress. In Bihar’s case, it may represent both. Voters are asserting themselves — demanding not merely promises but performance. The aspirational tone of this election stands in contrast to the fatalism that once characterized Bihar’s politics.

A Battle of Vision, Not Just Votes

As the dust settles on the first phase, it is clear that Bihar’s election is no longer just a contest between alliances; it is a referendum on the quality of governance, the credibility of promises, and the authenticity of leadership. Whether the NDA can retain its edge or whether the INDIAlliance can convert popular discontent into a decisive mandate remains uncertain. What is certain, however, is that Bihar’s voters have spoken louder than ever before.

The record turnout is not merely a statistic. It is a statement — that democracy in Bihar is alive, vocal, and evolving. The verdict, when it comes, will reveal not only who governs the state but also which direction its politics will take in the decade ahead.

(Sidharth Mishra is an Author, Academic and President of the Centre for Reforms, Development & Justice)

Bihar’s Battle of Promises and Power Brokers

By Sidharth MIshra 4th November 2025

As the campaign for the first phase of 121 Assembly seats draws to a close this evening, Bihar stands at the threshold of an election that could redefine its political and social contours. The rhetoric has been fierce, the promises grand, and the underlying message unmistakable, and this is an election where jobs, not just caste, have taken centre stage.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s rallies in Purnia and Bahadurganj mark an attempt to reclaim the party’s lost bastions in Seemanchal, a region that once echoed with Congress slogans. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s whirlwind of rallies and roadshows has sought to reinforce the NDA’s dominance. Yet, amid the noise of campaign slogans, one issue has resonated deeply across Bihar’s dusty lanes, employment.

Tejashwi Yadav’s bold promise of providing one government job per family has electrified young voters. The Grand Alliance (Mahagathbandhan) has gone a step further, pledging to legislate this promise within 20 days of taking office. The NDA, however, has dismissed it as “a bundle of lies,” arguing that such a move would require funds far exceeding Bihar’s entire budget. For now, analysts agree on one thing, the youth’s verdict could inaugurate a new era in Bihar politics.

But beyond this headline contest between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan lies another, more complex battle — that of the smaller yet strategically crucial parties and their leaders who often punch above their electoral weight.

The EBC Equation and the ‘Son of Mallah’: Mukesh Sahani, the self-styled ‘Son of Mallah’ has emerged as a significant factor in the Mahagathbandhan’s social arithmetic. Projected as the prospective Deputy Chief Minister, Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party has been allotted 15 seats, underscoring his bargaining power. Representing the Mallah community — part of the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) — Sahani challenges Nitish Kumar’s traditional hold over this group. The BJP, unwilling to cede ground, has countered with prominent Mallah figures in key constituencies, turning the EBC vote into a tug-of-war.

Manjhi’s Mushahar Base and Familial Politics: In the Magadh region, former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi continues to rely on the Mushahar community, another decisive Scheduled Caste bloc. His Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) remains a small but vocal player, often negotiating its relevance within larger alliances. True to form, Manjhi’s brand of family-centric politics persists — three of his six party tickets have gone to relatives, a move that reflects the personalized nature of Bihar’s politics.

The Silent Strength of Upendra Kushwaha: Upendra Kushwaha’s return to prominence represents another subplot in this intricate drama. Commanding influence over the 6–7% Kushwaha (Koeri) vote bank, he holds sway in roughly 40 constituencies. Together with the Kurmis, this forms the “Luv-Kush” equation that once bolstered Nitish Kumar’s rise. Having lost his Lok Sabha seat in Karakat, Kushwaha now seeks redemption and could yet emerge as the NDA’s silent trump card.

PK and AIMIM Factors: Adding to the intrigue is Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj movement, which has positioned itself as an alternative to both mainstream alliances. While Kishor’s outfit may not win many seats, it threatens to fragment the traditional vote banks particularly among youth and first-time voters disillusioned with old politics. In Seemanchal, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM adds another layer of complexity. With about three dozen candidates in the fray, the party’s growing influence could chip away at the Mahagathbandhan’s Muslim–Yadav base.

Bihar’s election this time is not just a clash of alliances but a contest between aspiration and arithmetic. Employment, dignity, and representation have converged into a powerful political narrative. Whether Tejashwi’s promise of jobs or the NDA’s emphasis on stability finds greater resonance remains to be seen. But one thing is certain that as Bihar’s youth line up to vote, they are no longer just participants in a caste calculus but are potential architects of a new political order.

(Sidharth Mishra is an Author, Academic and President of the Centre for Reforms, Development & Justice)

Jan Suraaj Set to Score Moral, if Not Electoral, Sweep in Bihar

By Sidharth MIshra 2nd November 2025

Another five days to go for the first phase of polling in Bihar assembly elections, a large section of people one interacted with complain that the traditional media and to an extent the social media has banished Jan Suraaj Party from its coverage. These people with grouse incidentally are across the caste and the underlining point is that most of them are educated and somewhat prosperous.

The desire to see a shift in the fortunes of the state and rid it from the albatross of caste-based society is somewhere making a mark. While debates over the electoral success story of Prashant Kishor’s party could continue but his efforts has certainly won him moral success in shaking up the mindset of the people.

Elections seem fascinating in some measure because they reflect the shifts in people’s thinking and aspirations as well as their expectations of the leaders. On November 14, we may know a little more about “Badalta Bihar” when the outcome of the two-phase Bihar Assembly elections will be known.

As the Opposition Mahagathbandhan appeared to be losing momentum following differences in the alliance over seat-sharing, Rahul Gandhi stepped in and reached out to Lalu Yadav. Rahul rushed old Congress hand and ex-Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot to Patna to salvage a situation which was getting out of hand.

By naming its CM candidate, the Mahagathbandhan has regained momentum, putting the ruling NDA on the defensive for not having done the same. Union Home Minister Amit Shah left the CM question open when he said that the NDA MLAs will choose their leader after the elections, even as the NDA is contesting the polls under the leadership of the incumbent CM Nitish Kumar.

ALSO READ: Not Naming Nitish As CM Is Part Of NDA Poll Strategy

What has also become evident is that the Bihar fray has thrown up a crop of young leaders, be it Tejashwi Yadav, Chirag Paswan, Mukesh Sahani or Prashant Kishor. In the countdown to the Bihar elections, the “PK factor” features in every conversation about it. The poll strategist-turned-politician Kishor’s Jan Suraaj has caught eyeballs, and got the attention of youths. Tired of old faces and politics, a section of Bihar people has been drawn by his pitch to move beyond caste politics towards ensuring a better future for their children.

Kishor had himself said that his party would get either 150 seats of the state’s 243 or below 10. As the campaign has progressed his words have to be taken seriously and not just dismissed as ‘X’ factor, whatever that would mean.

And in 2022, Kishor the poll strategist, decided to be a political player himself, undertaking padayatras across Bihar for two years before launching his own party on October 2, 2024. His party has been compared to political start-ups like Asom Gana Parishad and Aam Aadmi Party. But Jan Suraaj is different, the former were political fallout of social movements. Here is the instance of a political enterprise set up to take on social and economic causes.

Kishor may not be a product of a movement, but he is born out of a social media and communication revolution impacting our lives. The protests buoyed by social media have toppled governments in Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka in recent years.

Many believe that politics has been de-ideologised today, getting linked only to power that stems from winning elections, which in turn rides on skilful management of poll machinery. Kishor was among those few who first understood this churn in the country.

And, even as a leader now, he has built a party in a remarkably short time, so much so that he has now fielded candidates in 243 constituencies (he has accused the BJP of forcing three of the Jan Suraaj nominees to withdraw). But curiously, just as he was emerging as one of the central figures during the campaign, he pulled back by deciding not to take the plunge himself. What ace he has up his sleeve has to be watched.

He has set the bar high, declaring that “even if I get 125 seats, I would consider it a defeat” and expects voters to put him “ya to arsh par, nahi to farsh par” (Either I’ll be on the throne or on the floor). Bihar’s politics has often rewarded audacious campaign planks, be it Jayaprakash Narayan’s call for Sampoorna Kranti, Lalu Yadav’s attempt to turn the social hierarchies upside down, or Nitish Kumar’s bid to make governance the centrepiece of his campaign at a time when Bihar was showing the signs of a failed state. Whether Prashant Kishor will join that list remains to be seen.

Yet, any careful analysis of the electoral prospects of his Jan Suraaj Party must take into account that as a seasoned election strategist, he has the means and method to amplify his side of the story. Kishor launched his party on October 2, 2024 after a two-year padyatra across the state that started from Gandhi Ashram in West Champaran district. He claims his team has visited over 5,000 villages, engaging with local communities to identify key issues, and has a membership base of 1 crore.

He claims that since there have been no cataclysmic events in Bihar that could propel a new political force to office, his party gains would be fruits of hard political campaign. He appears to be getting slightly more support from upper castes and Muslims than from OBCs and Dalits.

PK’s campaign is mobilising the economic anxieties among the more aspirational segments such as school teachers, professionals, small entrepreneurs, educated youth and migrants. For them, Kishor’s anti-establishment pitch resonates precisely because both the NDA and MGB seem like two factions of the same old order that have dominated state politics for the last 35 years.

A question is often being asked, whose chances will JSP hurt more, the NDA’s or MGB’s? The NDA’s chances could get hurt if the seat-sharing arrangement within the NDA along with the whisper campaign against Nitish Kumar makes JD (U) appear as a party that could be cannibalised. In the end, the real effect of JSP playing a spoiler may largely be driven by the candidate choices parties make.

So even if PK’s gambit succeeds in a modest way, then the 2025 Bihar election may be won or lost in margins. And, in the process, it may shift the grammar of politics in a state where caste loyalty is the only thing that matters in an electoral battle. Much will depend on whether this middle layer of Bihar’s society remains steadfastly committed to PK’s insurgency or their other identities (and factors) become more dominant on polling day.

For Kishor, it’s a test case of whether election management (PR, strategy, data, etc) can substitute for politics (social coalitions, political alliances, charisma etc). His previous avatar as a strategist did not require him to have a clear ideological image. As a politician, he cannot avoid one. PK is no longer just a planner behind the curtain; he now aspires to be a product with a long shelf life.

Despite all the arguments against him and also reservations about his ability to contest, as the campaign has progressed, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj is proving to be tough competitor. Explain this in view of the above mentioned factors.

(The writer is an established Author, Academic and President of the Centre for Reforms, Development & Justice)

‘Cong-Left Have No Pull In Bihar; One Hopes PK Is Not Another Kejriwal’

By Lokmarg 26th October 2025

Dr Satyajit Singh, 75, a physician, social activist & entrepreneur, wishes Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj to change the caste-based politics in Bihar. His views:

Electoral rolls revision (SIR) in Bihar was essential to correct and update voter’s details. Many voters have died, changed their place of residence; many people are registered as voter at more than one place. However, SIR is an example of how right things are done in a wrong way.

First, it was done in great hurry. Second, initially, the documents required were near impossible for many people. Thank goodness, the Supreme Court prevailed and made Aadhar card enough for identity. But it’s also a fact that wrong people get Aadhar cards made in their name.

The Election Commission, in fact most government agencies, are not independent and strong enough to be trusted for being non-partisan in their work. The perception is that they are selective in their investigation, and not necessarily ‘an accused being innocent’.

Rahul Gandhi’s Vote Adhikari Yatra did have huge gatherings, but there is no strong cadre to follow up the momentum. The Mahagathbandhan will be a formidable force against the NDA but Modi and Nitish are more popular in perception. How much of their popularity is converted into votes only the ‘ballot box’ will tell.

The candidates of AIMIM of Owaisi are contesting from all Muslim dominated constituencies where lies the strength of the Mahagathbandhan, particularly RJD. Naturally, they will affect the vote-base of the alliance, especially the RJD.

ALSO READ: ‘Nitish Is Unlikely To Remain Bihar CM After This Election’

Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraaj is the only party which is not based on caste and religion. This party is offering candidates who are educated and professionals, and who have been successful in their life. They are attracting youth in large numbers. This is the only party whose movements have been on since the last few years, as an organisation, and now as a political party; they have a minutely compiled strategy.

When wrong elements are elected, then people argue, that since there no better candidate from any party, so they had to vote based on caste. However, the Jan Suraj Party is giving an alternative of educated and professionals as candidated for the first time in Bihar. How much Prashant Kishore will convert this in term of votes, in a highly polarised elections based on caste and religious bias, is being eagerly awaited.

Offering LJP a large number of seats indicates that Nitish Kumar needs Chirag Paswan for mobilising the EBC voters. His association with BJP has definitely eroded Muslim support. The appeal and strength of most regional parties are based on caste — from south to north India. BJP, despite many good development works to showcase, still uses religious emotions as the main plank of their election strategy.

The weakening of a centrist Congress and the Left has eroded a strong opposition which is necessary for democracy. Sad to see the Congress not letting brighter young politicians to come on the centre-stage! I have nothing against Rahul Gandhi, but he gives the impression, that he is at the top due to family domination.

The Left has lost its constituents of the poor working class vote shifting to caste and family-dominated parties which have no national or international agenda. The Left alone fights on a secularism plank, but it too gives the perception of not being unbiased, as pro-minority and anti-Hindu — which becomes beneficial to BJP in voter-polarisation. It’s sad to see a party built on international revolutionary ethos, standing behind caste and religious combinations — in the third row — making themselves irrelevant in Indian electoral politics.

In a polarised atmosphere, the space for a real, secular, liberal and democratic collective of people is shrinking fast. It is hoped that the Jan Suraj experiment succeeds to bring our democracy out of these narrow narratives, but Arvind Kejriwal’s debacle has also created serious apprehension in people’s mind.

(Dr Singh, having worked and taught in London for several years, returned to Patna in 1996 and established a lithotripsy centre in Bihar-Jharkhand. It has became a 400-bed multi-speciality hospital – Ruban group of hospitals – which specialising in advanced laser and robotic surgery. His vision has been to create institutions of healthcare, and there is a plan to set up a medical college near Patna. Among other things, he is involved with Indian Peoples Theatre Association (IPTA), Patna Literary Festival, and grassroots work in rural areas.

As told to Amit Sengupta

‘Nitish Is Unlikely To Remain Bihar CM; PK, Owaisi Are Irrelevant’

By LokMarg 14th October 2025

Anup Srivastava, a political observer from Patna, says even if the NDA returns to power in Bihar, Nitish may not find himself at the helm. His views:

Beginning with the ruling NDA alliance, it is clearly visible for the past couple of years that CM Nitish Kumar is lagging on two fronts – his age-related issues and the voices of discontent in his own party, the BJP and other alliance partners. However, the hard fact remains that BJP cannot win the elections and form the government on its own. Hence, a `substantial’ partner like JD(U) is a necessity for the BJP along with other smaller associates.

In the last 2020 Vidhan Sabha elections, the main opposition party RJD won 75 seats, followed by the BJP with 74, JD(U) 43, the Congress were at 19 followed by others. It was indeed a neck and neck fight last time as the RJD under Tejashwi Yadav offered good resistance and gave the NDA a run for their money.

Like last time, this time also, the LJP(R), led by cabinet minister Chirag Paswan, is the most difficult partner for the NDA to handle as new permutations and combinations regarding seat sharing formula with Chirag are making news on a daily basis. In 2020, Chirag contested on 135 seats and although his party did not win a single seat, it secured over 23 Lakh votes, substantially damaging JD(U) and bringing down its tally by over 20 seats.

Other NDA partners like Upendra Kushwaha (RLM) and Jitan Ram Manhji (HAM) have no visible or vocal grudges regarding the number of seats they are offered and till date, and remain a confidant of the alliance.

The ongoing complications going on between the RJD and the Congress are visible as they have not reached any acceptable, clear-cut seat-sharing formula till now. It also appears that the Congress is not been offered a `respectable’ share of seats as it is also evident from the fact that while other partners of the UPA have agreed on Tejashwi’s name as the CM candidate of UPA, Congress is still maintaining that talks will be held after the result.

‘Nitish Destroyed His Own Image – From a Progressive CM to a Pathetic Politician’

By Lokmarg 18th July 2025

Shubham Priyadarshan, who grew up in Bihar, says the current Nitish Kumar is a pale shadow of the progressive leader that he saw in his younger years. His views:

Growing up in Bihar, I always heard people say “Nitish sabke hain.” It was printed on posters, painted on walls, and spoken proudly by many around me. As a student, I used to believe in it too. Nitish Kumar wasn’t just a Chief Minister — he was someone who brought real change.

I saw girls in my school riding cycles under the Balika Cycle Yojana. Many of my friends could dream of college because of the Student Credit Card Scheme. Elderly people in my locality still thank the Lakshmi Bai Pension Yojana, and young people got skills and jobs through the Kushal Yuva Yojana.

At that time, it really felt like he WAS working for everyone — every caste, every religion, every village, every municipality and every city.

But today, in 2025, I find myself wondering: what happened to that Nitish Kumar?

Now, when I hear “Nitish sabke hain,” it doesn’t feel like a compliment anymore. It feels like he’s become a part of every party, with no real loyalty to anyone but power. The same man who once said he would “rather die than join BJP” is now sitting comfortably with them. The same leader who accused Lalu Yadav and Rabri Devi of ruining Bihar, later joined hands with them too. It’s hard to keep track of how many times he has switched sides.

ALSO READ: Paltu Kumar – The Flip Flop Man of Indian Politics

Is this the same Nitish Kumar who resigned as Railway Minister in 1999 after a train accident, saying he felt morally responsible? That man had principles. This one seems to only care about staying in the Chief Minister’s chair — no matter what it takes.

Lately, it’s not just his politics that’s confusing. His behavior in public events has become strange — placing flower bouquets on someone’s head, making odd remarks during speeches, and saying things that make people uncomfortable. I saw a video where, during the national anthem, he started doing weird gestures. And in one of his rallies, he even said that “women didn’t wear clothes in the past” — to a group of self-help group women. That was honestly shocking.

I’m not a doctor, but as a young citizen, I can’t ignore what is obvious. Something doesn’t seem right. The opposition is raising concerns about his mental health and age, and honestly — they might not be entirely wrong.

I’m not saying Nitish Kumar never did good work. He did. Bihar is better because of some of his early decisions. But maybe it’s time he stepped aside with dignity instead of desperately trying to hold on to power through any alliance that keeps him afloat.

As a student, I want a leader who inspires trust and stability — not confusion and chaos. Bihar deserves clear vision, fresh energy, and someone who believes in principles, not just politics. Nitish ji was once that person — but maybe not anymore.

As told to Deepti Sharma

BJP Wants To Eat Up All Regional Parties, Including Allies

By LokMarg 26th August 2022

Tanveer Khurshid, a seasoned educator in Bihar, spells out the reasons behind Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s decision to jump the NDA ship

Nitish Kumar is the biggest politician in this country, bigger than Narendra Modi. This sounds exaggerated or seems like a diehard fan talking. Far from it. I am no fan of Mr. Kumar. I am making this statement based on facts.

There was this joke about the late politician from a regional party from Bihar: No matter who forms the government, he will become the minister. The same thing can be said about Mr. Kumar. No matter who has the majority seats, Nitish ji will remain the chief minister of Bihar. He has been there since 2005 – 17 long years.

It’s not that his party is garnering so many seats that nobody has been able to outstrip him. Since 2015, his party has been continuously going downhill. In 2015 assembly elections, his party was on second rung with 71 seats, preceded by RJD with 80 seats. Fast forward five years, in 2020, JDU tally slipped to 45.

Despite failing to get the mandate of the people, Nitish ji is still the chief minister of Bihar. There’s no other leader in the country who can pull out a similar feat. Nobody knows what card he has up in his sleeve.

Nevertheless, his image is completely tarnished in the eyes of people. Everybody knows now that he has no principles. To save his chair, he can easily switch sides. His ideology flip-flops are based on his personal agenda. If yesterday, he called himself the biggest secular leader, today he might do an alliance with the BJP. Tomorrow, he can shake hands with the RJD or other secular parties. This is the problem. It’s become very difficult to trust him as a leader.

ALSO READ: ‘Nitish Has Played His Last Card, JDU Will Soon Collapse’

I am not sure as a voter whether I would vote for him even though he is in alliance with the party which I support. Now that his party has broken the alliance with the BJP, there will be some repercussions for this misadventure. The top leadership of the BJP will not let it go so easily. We all know that the ED, the CBI and other central bodies are going to land up in Bihar soon. There will be raids on different leaders of the JD(U) and the RJD alike. I think Nitish Kumar must have prepared himself and his party leaders for this, which is going to happen sooner or later.

In all this the JD(U) has suffered a major setback. There’s a dearth of leadership in the party. There’s no leader who can lead the party after him. After the death of Ram Vilas Paswan, his party completely disintegrated. It couldn’t win even a single seat in the assembly election. If this happens to the JD(U), it will be very bad for the state.

The BJP wants to devour all the regional parties which, people say, was the reason for the break-up between the JD(U) and the BJP. If this is the case, Nitish Kumar did the right thing. For a healthy democratic set up, it’s very important for regional parties to flourish.

As told to Md Tausif Alam

Nitish Has Played His Last Card; JD(U) Will Soon Collapse

By LokMarg 22nd August 2022

Abhishek Anand, an advocate in Patna High Court, reveals that there was a rush for bank lockers in Bihar on the day Nitish reunited with Lalu Yadav’s RJD

To the political observers in Delhi, what happened in Bihar’s power corridors – when Nitish deserted the BJP-led NDA and united with Lalu Yadav’s RJD – was shocking and unexpected. But these armchair observers have no knowledge of Bihar’s ground situation.

Patna’s legal fraternity, which also includes members of political legal cells, always knew the divorce between the BJP and Nitish Kumar was a surety. It was only a matter of WHEN, not IF. The BJP wanted to get rid of JD(U) before 2024 General Elections; only that Nitish Kumar pulled the rug before the BJP could do it.

However, Nitish has little political capital left after the recent switchover. He is holding on to the CM’s chair only to save his party. Once he is no longer the CM, his party will disintegrate. Now, the onus to sustain his government lies solely on RJD. BJP knows this as much as Nitish.

I will also tell you an interesting development on the day JD(U) and RJD reunited. My wife works in a bank. On the day of JDU-RJD coalition, there was a rush at her branch for bank lockers. People wanted to lock their belongings securely. You can draw the conclusion about the reputation of the new coalition now.

There is always a section of voters which is not completely loyal to one party or ideology. This section swings depending on the popular sentiment. The recent political development has not being taken kindly by this swinging voter.

ALSO READ: Patna Paradigm – Why Allies Jumping NDA Ship

My joint family has elders supporting for Upendra Kushwaha while the younger lot is inclined towards the BJP. However, as soon as Kushwaha left the alliance in the last assembly elections, he wrote his own obituary. All the caste-voters which previously supported the RLSP decided to vote in favour of the larger partner BJP. Kushwaha is now with JD(U) but his vote-base by and large has gone to BJP. The same is going to happen now with the JDU voters in 2024. This is my belief.

BJP also has the backing of the media, often referred to as ‘godi media’. Tejashwi Yadav or Nitish Kumar lack such backing. The BJP is shrewdly waiting for the new alliance to make one bad move and then put it to a media trial. That is why there was an internal diktat to RJD workers on the day of joining the government that the cadre should celebrate in moderate way, avoid any kind of hooliganism.

The speculation of a larger opposition unity with Nitish at the centre is a bogus premise. Congress is never going to do this. Let us first wait and see if this government lasts its full term. I feel the BJP will perform better in 2024 by going solo because a large part of JD(U) voters will shift to the saffron outfit. Nitish has played his last card, to save his chair and public image only.

As told to Abhishek Srivstava