Can Donald Trump Stonewall BRICS?

US President Donald Trump on July 18 mocked the BRICS bloc as a “little group” that is “fading out fast” and reiterated his warning of a 10 percent tariff on countries aligning with it, accusing them of supporting “anti-American policies”.

Trump further took credit for undermining the bloc’s attempts to challenge the global dominance of the US dollar, vowing that he would never let that happen.

Donald Trump, taking firm stance toward global economic competitors, said, “When I heard about this group of six countries in BRICS, I hit them very hard, and if they ever really form in a meaningful way, it will end very quickly.” Though he didn’t name the nations, Trump added, “We can never let anyone play games with the US.” He also stressed the importance of maintaining the US Dollar’s global reserve status. “We are not going to let the Dollar slide… If we lost the status of the Dollar as the world’s reserve currency, it would be like losing a World War,” Trump said.

Trump had targeted Brazil with new trade penalties, announcing a 50 percent tariff on imports beginning in August over what he described as “unfair” trade practices. This follows his earlier July 6 declaration of a 10 percent tariff on any nation aligning with the BRICS group.

BRICS Over the Years

The BRICS group, originally formed in 2009, is a coalition of emerging economies comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (which joined in 2010). In 2024-25, the bloc expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, bringing the total number of member countries to 11.

BRICS was established with the goal of promoting peace, development, and a more balanced global order by strengthening economic cooperation among developing nations. Over the years, it has positioned itself as a counterweight to Western-led institutions like the G7 and the IMF, advocating for a multipolar world and reforms in global governance systems. The bloc also promotes the use of local currencies in trade.

But what defines BRICS today is a subtler, more strategic ambition: to insulate themselves from Washington’s gravitational pull while cooperating to build a joint hi-tech industrial base. There are things that the BRICS get right. Financial global institutions such as the International Monetary Fund are in need of reform; the rich world has failed to honour climate finance promises. The group’s understandable response in the face of inaction is to create its own development bank to promote a form of green industrialisation.

Yet, its size hides its contradictions. The grouping’s call for more inclusive global institutions sounds welcome, but there is a preponderance of autocracies within its own ranks. BRICS is right that international law should be upheld in Middle Eastern conflicts. But it climbs down from its moral pedestal by condemning Ukraine’s strikes on Russian infrastructure – while staying silent on Moscow’s relentless attacks on civilians.

Rio Summit and a new global currency

The BRICS summit in Brazil last week revealed a loose alliance of emerging powers becoming more complex – and perhaps more consequential. But the most important issue on how to replace the dollar globally, was pushed under the carpet, perhaps due to the direct threats by Trump. Though the de-dollarisation rhetoric serves more as a signal of intent than an imminent threat to dollar hegemony.

A Guardian editorial on the latest BRICS summit opined that the, “BRICS nations can still close ranks. Their most technical yet revealing move is to start building financial “plumbing” to bypass western systems. The group is not ditching the dollar – but its members know what exclusion feels like: India had credit denied after the 2008 crash; Iranian banks have been sanctioned since 2012. The bloc’s success will depend not just on ambition, but on the capacity to coordinate across national interests.” This seems rather an uphill task, as individual interests might overcome the greater collective benefit.

Sarang Shidore, Director, Global South Program, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, Washington DC, US in a letter to the Financial Times opined that, “The rise of BRICS provides an important multilateral corrective in a world dominated by the US for the past three decades but now transitioning away from both unipolarity and multilateralism. Such a corrective will inevitably come with its own flaws and blind spots. But a stable transition requires it.”

Dr Diego Maiorano, a Visiting Research Fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), an autonomous research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS), commenting on the new BRICS currency opined that in fact, the drive by BRICS+ to de-dollarise international trade remains at an embryonic stage. Most cross-border transactions among the BRICS members are still settled in US dollars, and attempts to build alternatives (such as the BRICS Cross-Border Payment System) are nascent and far from supplanting established mechanisms like the SWIFT, even though they are useful tools for countries (such as Russia and Iran) hit by sanctions.

Christopher Phillips, Professor of International Relations at Queen Mary University of London, in his article in the Arab News opined that Russia and China were among the most supportive of a new BRICS currency to challenge the dollar in Kazan. But on the eve of the Rio de Janeiro summit, Trump’s threats contributed to reluctance among other BRICS members, especially India, which fears Chinese dominance of the new currency, to advance the proposal. No major headway was made on the issue and the final joint statement even contained references to the global importance of the dollar — perhaps an effort by some to appease Trump.

Overall, the future of BRICS might be shaped less by external threats and more by its ability to reconcile internal contradictions and articulate a coherent vision for global governance. For now, the coalition is more a reflection of the shifting geopolitics of the Global South than a monolithic challenger to the West. The embryonic nature of its de-dollarisation efforts and the moderating influence of India and Brazil suggest that the group’s challenge is more latent than explicit. Nevertheless, as Western institutions continue to grapple with questions of legitimacy and representativeness, the mere existence of BRICS, with all its contradictions, signals a world in flux – and an invitation to rethink the foundations of international order.

(Asad Mirza is a New Delhi-based senior commentator on national, international, defence and strategic affairs, environmental issues, an interfaith practitioner, and a media consultant.)

Turkey's Entry Into BRICS

Can Turkey’s Entry Into BRICS Be A Threat For India?

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, 70, has been Turkey’s president since 2014. Before that, Erdogan, a strongman who wields an iron hand in his country, was prime minister for around 11 years. His party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), is socially conservative and emphasises traditional Islamic values, and Erdogan often employs nationalist rhetoric and policies.

Erdogan is not typically described as a fundamentalist, but his approach to Islam in politics is significant. He comes from a background of political Islam and has roots in Turkey’s Islamist movement and although he initially portrayed himself as a moderate, pro-Western Islamic democrat, over time, he has increasingly emphasised Islamic values in public policy and rhetoric. Yet, while he has challenged aspects of Turkey’s traditional secularism, he hasn’t sought to completely dismantle it.

Erdogan’s relationship with Russia is complex and pragmatic rather than strictly pro or anti-Russia. He has cooperated with Russia on energy projects, military purchases (e.g., S-400 missile system), and in Syria but he has also had significant conflicts with Russia, including Turkey’s downing of a Russian jet in 2015 and opposing sides in conflicts like Libya. 

Erdogan can seem to be trying to balance relations with Russia and the West, often playing them against each other for Turkey’s benefit. This is significant because, since 1952, Turkey has been and remains a member of NATO whose purpose is to guarantee the freedom and security of its members, who represent most of the Western world, through political and military means

Why is the focus on Erdogan and Turkey?

Why am I going on about Erdogan? Because as of last week, Erdogan’s Turkey has made a formal bid to join BRICs, the intergovernmental organisation comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Formed in 2006, the purpose of BRICS was to bring together the world’s most important developing countries, to challenge the political and economic power of the wealthier nations of North America and Western Europe. As it has expanded, with new members such as Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates invited to join the organisation this year, it has emerged as a powerful geopolitical counterweight to the West.

The expansion and growing influence of BRICS represent a significant shift in the global order that has prevailed since the end of World War II. This change reflects the broader trend of power diffusion from the West to emerging economies, particularly in Asia.

The significance of Turkey’s bid to join BRICS is important because if that happens, it will become the first NATO member to come aboard. 

While BRICS is not a military alliance, its growing economic and political coordination could indirectly affect NATO’s strategic calculations. The strengthening of ties between Russia and China, in particular, presents a complex challenge for NATO’s strategic planning. Now, with a NATO member trying to join BRICS, the situation can turn rather complex.

Turkey’s geographic position, straddling Europe and Asia, has made it a crucial NATO ally, particularly during the Cold War. It controls access to the Black Sea through the Bosphorus Strait and borders several key regions, including the Middle East and the Caucasus. 

On the one hand, Turkey has been a key member of NATO. Turkey maintains the second-largest army in NATO after the United States. It has participated in numerous NATO operations, including peacekeeping missions in Kosovo and Afghanistan, and has hosted NATO missile defense systems, including early warning radar as part of the alliance’s missile shield project. It has also been a key partner in NATO’s counter-terrorism efforts, particularly given its experience in combating domestic terrorist groups and its proximity to conflict zones in the Middle East.

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On the other hand, in 2017, Turkey signed a deal to purchase the Russian S-400 air defence system, leading to significant tension with NATO allies, particularly the US. Turkey’s military operations in northern Syria, particularly against Kurdish forces who were US allies in the fight against ISIS, have caused friction within NATO. These actions have sometimes been viewed as undermining NATO’s cohesion and objectives in the region. 

Turkey’s warming relations with Russia, including energy cooperation and the purchase of military equipment, have raised concerns among NATO allies about Turkey’s commitment to the alliance’s collective security objectives.

Most recently, Turkey initially opposed the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO, citing concerns about these countries’ alleged support for Kurdish groups that Turkey considers terrorist organisations. This led to prolonged negotiatioAns and delays in the expansion process.

Will Russia back Turkey’s bid to join BRICS?

The short answer to that question is yes. So could China. BRICS is a relatively loose organisation compared to NATO. There are no military treaties that bind BRICS members and, ostensibly, the organisation’s main focus was on economic development and trade cooperation among members. 

In fact, the concept and the BRICS moniker were initially coined in 2001 by an investment banker, Jim O’Neill, then-chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management. In his paper, “Building Better Global Economic BRICs.” O’Neill identified these countries as having the potential to become dominant economies in the 21st century.

Since its formation, the organisation has come a long way. Two of its members, China and Russia, are formidable forces, economically and militarily, and are allies that pose a real challenge to the west-dominated world order. Another member, India, has grown into a major global economy and, in the West’s scheme of things, plays a critical strategic role against the rise of China. 

BRICS’ importance has, therefore, transcended its role in promoting trade and development among its members to becoming a key player in the changing dynamics of geopolitics. With the entry of a NATO member, the complexity of BRICS would increase.

What does this mean for India?

Let’s take a look first at India’s relations with Turkey. Trade relations between Turkey and India have been growing, with both countries seeking to expand bilateral trade and investment. The two countries maintain diplomatic ties and engage in high-level visits.

That’s the good news. The not-so-good news is that there have been some points of tension between the two countries in recent years.

Turkey’s support for Pakistan’s position on the Kashmir dispute has been a significant source of friction with India. Turkey has raised the Kashmir issue at international forums like the UN, which has not been well-received by India. While there have been some defence collaborations between the two countries, the relationship in this area is limited compared to Turkey’s ties with Pakistan or India’s ties with other countries.

Turkey’s closer ties with Pakistan and its attempts to increase its influence in the Muslim world have sometimes put it at odds with India’s interests.

Turkey’s move to join BRICS comes at a time when there are major shifts in the geopolitical situation. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is entering its third year. Since Hamas’s attack against Israel on October 7, Israel’s offensive in Gaza is continuing and the risks of escalation, involving Iran and other entities in the region, is now real. In the US, all eyes are on what happens in the November 5 presidential election: the two contenders, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, have diametrically opposite views on NATO’s role in Ukraine and peace moves in the Middle East.

India has for long adopted a non-aligned or, as some call it, multi-aligned foreign policy. It balances a cordial relationship with Russia with its strategic relationship with the US. India’s Prime Minister has visited both Russia (to meet with President Vladimir Putin) and Ukraine (to meet President Volodymyr Zelensky). India’s relationship with China is testy, mainly driven by the fact that China is a huge economic rival, several-fold more powerful than India; its advances in India’s neighbourhood have been rapid; and continuing conflicts with India over territorial disputes have been irksome. 

If BRICS is shored up further by the entry of a critical player such as Turkey and a strong China-Russia-Turkey axis emerges within that organisation, where would that leave India? Would it unbalance its foreign policy strategy of tightrope walking?

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BRICS expanded

Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, UAE, Saudi Arabia Become Full Members Of BRICS

BRICS group of nations on Thursday decided to include six new members- Argentina, Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

The new membership will be effective from January 1, 2024.

Leaders from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) supported the expansion of the grouping, the first such expansion since 2010 when South Africa was inducted into the group.

South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa said that Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE have been invited to join the BRICS as part of the first phase of expansion.

With this expansion, six of the world’s nine largest oil producers are now part of BRICS.

Ramaphosa made the announcement while issuing the Johannesburg Declaration of 15th BRICS Summit. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that “India has always supported the expansion of BRICS and has always believed that adding new members will strengthen BRICS as an organisation.

President Ramaphosa, as chair of the Summit and of BRICS made the announcement in his opening statement and thereafter the President invited his counterparts and colleagues from the BRICS member states to also present their statements.

“This summit reaffirmed the importance of BRICS, people-to-people exchanges & enhancing friendship & cooperation…We adopted the Johannesburg two declarations which reflect key BRICS messages on matters of global economic, financial and political importance. It demonstrates the shared values & common interests that underlie our mutually beneficial cooperation as the five BRICS countries…” Ramaphosa said. (ANI)

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