Tag: Fossil Fuel

COP 29: God’s Gift Comes With A Price

By Jasdev Singh Rai

COP 29 was everything that climate change warriors like to attack. It was hosted by Azerbaijan, an oil producing country whose economy is based on continuing dependency on fossil fuel by the world. Dismissing the anti-fossil fuel lobby, President Ilham Aliyev inaugurated the conference by saying that oil and gas are gifts of God. That statement sealed the dynamics of the conference between those seeking an end to fossil fuel and those whose lives are dependent on its persistent use. That’s the paradox. If fossil fuel production is halted, some countries will sink into poverty, but if it continues, the world could sink under climate disasters.

It didn’t help that this was the second year running an oil producing country hosted COP, the biggest gathering of climate change experts, policy-makers, influencers and NGOs among others. Over 50,000 people attended COP 29 at Baku, Azerbaijan.

Many attend COP sessions with a lot of expectations. But there are other dynamics and expectations. There are countries whose very existence depends on selling fossil fuels. An end to oil and gas will mean they will join the ranks of least developing countries.

There are countries whose existence is threatened by climate change. They lack the means and resources to take measures to protect their citizens. Floods, heat waves, forest fires, droughts etc destroy what developments they have had, what little they can cling to. Some Island nations fear they will be drowned by rising sea levels.

Then there are big economy countries like China and India who are trying to meet the needs of their citizens. Their development requires large amounts of fossil fuels to reach their targets.

It is a complex situation which cannot be seen in the binary of fossil fuel or no fossil fuel politics. The alternatives have a long way to go before fulfilling the need of the human race, including those who most ardently want an end to fossil fuels. Their flights are dependent on fossil fuels and their home heating is dependent on gas. Fossil fuels cannot simply disappear overnight or even in a few years.

It is after all oil and gas that have been the engines of human progress in the last two centuries. They are responsible for development, comfort and also wars.

The president of Azerbaijan made a rhetorical statement that oil and gas are Gift of God. Given the immense development human race has achieved in the last two centuries, it is not far from the truth. However, somebody should have added that like all gifts, it can come with a price. Gifts come with expectations. If not handled with care and frugality, gifts can burn.

What is missing at COP is a realistic approach to climate change. Countries dependent on fossil fuel industry need to start thinking of alternative industry and economic activity. As developed countries shift to non-fossil fuel sources, perhaps the price of oil can increase to such levels that reduction in production will not affect their economies. There is still plenty of oil and gas in the ground. Greed could push some of these countries to continue production at their current level to increase their revenues even further.

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What is clearly needed is economic modelling at COP on a systematic reduction in fossil fuel production but sustainable economies for fossil fuel producing countries. Given the extravagance of countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE or even Azerbaijan, it is difficult to see why they will not resist any attempts at COP to reduce production. They have more than enough money to buy influence. Their eagerness to host COP meetings and then derail the targets was widely commented on.

Hence there is focus on adaptation, seeking ways for human kind to adapt to climate change. There is only so much that can be done with adaptation. The human lungs and body are not a fast evolving machine that will filter carbon and nitrous oxide from the air to ensure a clean filtered intake for a healthy body. The earth and environment is on an even slower evolutionary process. It cannot suddenly battle the climatic effects of increased pollutants in the atmosphere.

The natural ecological balances that have evolved over millions of years to absorb carbon, to ensure Oxygen production, to prevent mass erosion of soil, to avoid frequent floods, to maintain temperatures at levels that life is sustainable, cannot be engineered to suit the excessive spewing of pollutants in the air, desertification following deforestation, ecological disasters following massive reduction or even extinction of some species and extremes of climate.

COP is quite a charged political gathering. There are emotive campaigns that prophesize end of human life as we know it basing it on science, massive natural disasters if we continue down the current path of so called development and progress and then there are those who see poverty, economic disasters and hardship if the world really accedes to the demands of some high profile climate campaigners. NGOs and countries.

Focussing on mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage can only do so much. Putting money, albeit reluctantly, into adaptation and protecting developing countries from ravages of climate change can do so much. There seemed to be a gap in COP 29 which is felt but not yet articulated. The gap perhaps is the question — what is the alternative economic model of development that can pull the world away from fossil fuel economy to alternatives yet preserve the advantages that some regions of the world have from fossil fuel economy? What are developmental models that developing and least developing countries can adopt that will help them to lift their standards of living without fossil fuels?

The politics at COP can move forward constructively if countries like Azerbaijan who think oil and gas are God’s gift, if not to humanity at least to their country, can be persuaded to move on from fossil fuel economy to other models that protect their standard of living and wealth.

Resolve To Tackle Climate Crisis

New Resolve to Tackle Climate Change

By Asad Mirza

Though right form the start or even before it started, the vibes from the Dubai COP 28 Summit were not positive. However, as the jamboree ended, 198 countries announced that they are committed to phase out fossil fuels as they pose the main climate change accelerators.

Ending Fossil Fuels

The countries agreed to contribute to a transition “away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.”

This could be counted as some progress as just a few years ago it was inconceivable that fossil fuels, which in fact still fulfil almost every country’s energy needs to a large extent will be shamed and might be banned.

However, the announcement doesn’t mean anything, as there is no mandate behind it, but it could help build momentum for more action from governments. The Paris climate agreement’s commitment that countries would pursue efforts to limit global heating to 1.50 C, above pre-industrial levels staged a version of this in 2015.

In fact, the agreement doesn’t underline the urgency required to avoid worsening climate destruction, and it includes language, which may fuel further delay or non-action.

A New Culprit Identified

While oil and gas companies have not yet committed to producing less fossil fuel, their pledge to cut emissions from their own operations is noteworthy.

In the agreement, instead of highlighted the harmful effects of Carbon Dioxide – CO2, the delegates were somehow influenced to focus more on Methane-CH4.

Methane, an odourless gas is produced by virtually every oil and gas project worldwide. When it is not cost effective to capture it, companies often release methane into the atmosphere via venting or burn it through flaring, which ironically converts it into Carbon Dioxide. 

The gas also leaks into the atmosphere from facilities via innumerable small, undetected or unreported leaks in pipelines or other equipment, or through large-scale releases called “super-emitter” events.

Scientists say methane has been responsible for up to 30 percent of global warming since the industrial era began, so the Dubai agreement offers a win for the climate, even if the 50 signatories account for less than a third of the industry’s total operational emissions.  

Oil companies may choose to shut some production because that is the most cost effective answer to the target of zero flaring of methane. Some of the biggest oil companies have already promised zero routine flaring and near-zero methane, and a number have shown that big progress can be made on the latter.

Renewable Energy

A second COP 28 commitment could affect demand for fossil fuels by tripling the world’s renewable energy generation capacity to at least 11,000 Gigawatts –GW by 2030.

More than 120 countries signed up to this pledge, which will require a big leap in effort from what has been done before. It took 12 years from 2010 to 2022 to achieve the last tripling of renewable capacity. This one has to be done in the space of eight years.

This means that meeting the goal will be difficult, but achievable. This is also supported by the fact that solar and wind are now the cheapest sources of new energy generation in most countries, but the growth of renewables is being held back by a range of bureaucratic and regulations bottlenecks that many authorities are struggling to unblock.

Generating More Efficient Energy

The third COP 28 commitment with implications for hydrocarbons is aimed at boosting energy efficiency.

More efficient and smart use of energy is widely referred to as the “first fuel” in clean energy transitions because it offers some of the quickest and most cost-effective options for cutting emissions, lowering energy bills and bolstering energy security. 

The countries that signed up to the 2030 renewables pledge agreed to collectively double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements from around 2 percent to more than 4 percent every year until 2030.

However, all this could translate into real achievement only when the world leaders who attended COP 28 are focussed to turn these words into real ground action by creating plans for implementation of the summit’s goals.

This certainly leaves much to be desired, given the sway of the oil and petrochemicals giants on various governments, an example of which is the manner in which they have been able to turn the attention from CO2 to MH4 at the recent summit. Thus, a resolve coupled with sincere and active policymaking, should pave the way forward but it may also invite political opposition and industry resistance.

 (Asad Mirza is a Delhi-based senior political and international affairs commentator.)

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Decarbonising Economic Growth

Decarbonising The Economic Growth

By Kunal Bose

What will be the country’s grid electricity demand at any point in future will be largely decided by gross domestic product (GDP) growth, which is likely to vary from a low of 6.8 per cent to a high of 8 per cent. Past experience says higher the GDP growth, greater will be industry’s percentage wise share in electricity use. Based on a platform of 7.5 per cent average GDP growth, India’s leading energy and resources institute TERI says in a research paper that the country’s 2030 electricity demand will be between 2254 TWh (terawatt hour) and 2533 TWh.

High levels of sustained inclusive economic growth the country needs to combat poverty that even after 75 years of independence exists on a disturbingly large scale. (In an April 2020 brief, the World Bank found 176 million Indians were living in extreme poverty in 2015. The Bank adds that Covid-19 pandemic had resulted in the swelling of ranks of poor, particularly in rural areas.) The fact also remains growth in India and many other countries has come at a great cost to the environment.

From unrestrained mining in spite of claims of tight oversight by government agencies to the making and application of harmful chemicals to burning of fossil fuels, particularly coal for electricity generation to still rampant use of plastic as packaging material all are contributing to environment sullying to the extent that all east Asian countries are now experiencing more floods, droughts and earthquakes. Earlier this year, record breaking floods resulting from prolonged severe heat wave followed by unusual volumes of rains swept across much of Pakistan. The floods submerged entire villages, displacing millions and damaging critical infrastructure. A human tragedy of the worst kind, nearly 2,000 people perished during the four-month long deluge. The frightening Pakistani flood experience is unnerving for the whole of East Asia.

In the meantime, climate change continues to impinge on the economy, though not immediately visible, at an accelerated rate. Unarguably, India being largely dependent on electricity derived from coal, the filthiest of fossil fuels, the environment has to bear the brunt of high carbon emissions by thermal plants. This is in spite of incorporation of many new mitigating technologies in such plants and washing of coal to reduce ash content ahead of its burning in furnaces. Whatever that is, environmental salvation and well-being of the masses will depend on combined efforts of the government and the private sector to greening of energy supply by rapidly creating capacity of all kinds of renewable energy and also shedding inhibitions about nuclear power plant installations. Global consensus among energy experts is that for transition to a less and less carbon emitting power network, nuclear energy will have to have its rightful share.

A December report by the government think tank Niti Aaayog saying that coal-based power generation capacity in the country is likely to peak at around 250 gigawatt by the end of this decade or immediately thereafter. Moreover, power generation from this source will peak a few years later. The anti-coal lobby also draws comfort from the fact that power groups are beating a retreat from building new coal fired thermal units in the face of highly competitive power tariffs of renewable energy. It will not be a surprise if quite a few of coal based power plants in pre-construction pipeline are abandoned.

But then what is not deniable is that India has for very long stuck to coal to meet its growing power requirements, knowing well its ill effects on the environment. The country’s thermal power capacity is 235,929 MW in which the share of coal is over 86 per cent. The rest is from lignite, diesel and gas. Such major reliance on coal, however obnoxious the fuel may appear to anyone caring for the environment, is because of its abundant local availability. India’s coal resources are an estimated 319.02 billion tonnes of which proved reserves are 148 billion tonnes. Naturally, coal being by far the largest in the mining sector, its production in the country was a high 778.19 million tonnes in 2021-22. Even then so high is the power sector’s dependence on this fossil fuel that last year the country had to import 209 million tonnes of coal to meet demand.

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Thankfully, the combination of government policy encouragement that includes subsidies and farsightedness of private enterprises – one may recall the trailblazing role played by the late Tulsi Tanty and his Suzlon group in promoting green energy – is now seeing the country firing on all cylinders to build all kinds of renewable energy. According to global database agency Statista, India has so far built renewable (small hydro, biomass power, urban and industrial waste power and solar and wind energy) energy capacity of 106,374.63 MW, major hydro capacity of 46,525 MW and nuclear capacity of 6,780 MW. India more recently, however, dropped the 500 GW of renewable energy target and also a billion tonne of carbon emissions committed at COP26 by 2030. But it will still strive to have 50 per cent energy supply from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.

This is seen as an attempt by the government to retain the flexibility of commissioning new coal fired power plants to achieve the projected 820 GW total capacity in case the growth in green fuels based power capacity falls short of target. India is just one of the countries in Asia where coal remains the king. Other fossil fuels such as oil and gas also have a significant share in the energy mix of some countries in the continent such as Japan, Thailand and Bangladesh. India is the world’s third largest emitter of greenhouse gases next only to China and the US.

This gives an idea of the country housing large numbers of polluting industries, including power plants and the big population of polluting vehicles, which have lived their useful life. Undeniably the political will to get rid of such polluters is building up over the last few years as is evident in the government’s vehicles scrappage policy. It, however, remains to be seen how forcefully the policy is enforced and how quickly the government brings industrial units polluting air and water to heel.

The point is if Beijing and Chinese provincial authorities could bring polluting industries to book why should not the powers that be in India be able to do the same. Perhaps what stops the government from acting firm are job losses when not enough new employment is created. Compulsions such as this and uncertainties about securing funding for the ambitious green energy growth are likely the reasons for New Delhi to set a zero-carbon target date of 2070, two decades later than developed economies of the West as also Japan.

Xi Jinping, who was re-anointed the country’s supreme leader the other day, made a pledge in the UN General Assembly in September 2020 that his country would be peaking CO2 emissions ahead of 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. If Xi commitment is honoured, then global warming would get lowered by 0.2-0.3 degree centigrade by 2060. In the meantime, Mukesh Ambani, chairman of Reliance Industries, which is committed to build massive renewable energy capacity, including green hydrogen at Dhirubhai Ambani Green Energy Giga Complex at Jamnagar in Gujarat, said: “Decarbonising the global economy will require multi-decade investments in green and clean energy to the tune of $5 trillion per year globally.” But this offers “unprecedented opportunities” for multi-decade growth for energy groups such as Reliance and Adani.