Every few years a political leader emerges on the world stage who makes a mockery of international norms, tears the text books and pushes the pundits into a maze of guessing games. Donald Trump, the President of United States is such a man. Whereas International Relations (IR) pundits used to write ‘well researched’ predictions on the next move in the world order and their consequences based on IR theories, now punditry seems to be revolving around Trump’s personality. Yet each move of Trump appears to take them by surprise. Like him or not, Trump has done some good things and actions that upset people who prefer a predictable world and of course some bad things that have others wondering what next.
The Israel-Iran conflict is the latest that kept the media guessing and that has confused the ‘experts’. Is he for Israel or is he rabidly against Iran? Is he actually going to stop Iran developing nuclear capacity and hand victory to Netanyahu or is he just toying about. Does he actually mean what he says?
He has also made NATO look comical. All the self-assuming leaders from Europe and Canada clacking around him, agreeing to almost everything he says and resetting their foreign policies to fine tune with Trump’s whims, seems a theatre of confused sycophants at best. It’s a bit like the court of King Vlad Dracula, where a wrong statement could lead to impaling. In today’s world, Trump punishes by upping the tariffs.
What to say next, what to do next, appears to be on the minds of leaders constantly when shaking hands with Trump. The head of NATO even called Trump ‘Daddy’ and won plaudits for it from all around and the press for ‘getting it right’’. Britain’s Starmer looked bewildered but became the envy of the Trump fawning gang because USA had informed him they were going to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites an hour before doing so. This was like a group of giggling jealous teen girls envious of the one who was waved at by the most desire boy in the school!
This is what IR theory has come to in the era of Trump. Is it bad or good? Fact is that most social sciences are constructions rather than real science. The Europeans pretentiously call them science. There is little science in them, in that they can nether be replicated nor really be proven. Once a ‘paradigm’ is constructed, those who study it start applying it and building on its foundation further with some adjustments. This creates a paradigm under which everyone is then obliged to operate.
In international relations, most personnel in Foreign Departments or External Affairs Departments, are trained in established theories of IR and political science. They play the game as the rules have ordained. But then comes along Trump as a spoiler.
Trump has made IR a game that is mostly personality based. Countries around the world are engaging psychologists and mind readers to second guess what Trump might do before meeting him or engaging with US. Engaging with US is a necessity in international relations and emerging world order, whatever that is.
Let us see what happened at Israel-Iran. Israel’s Netanyahu and right wing decided that Iran is the threat they need to eliminate in order to force Iran’s proxy groups such as Hezbollah and Houthis to back off. This wing also wants to crush any hope of ‘independence’ in Gaza and bring the region under its own (Israel) territory. Iran’s nuclear programme is the weapon it fears most to this strategy. So, Israel wants to stop that altogether and ideally change the regime in Iran to its liking.
Iran on the other hand has a different agenda. As a Shia country, it wants to increase its influence in the Islamic world that is largely Sunni. Instead of a direct confrontation with Sunni countries, Iran has used Isael as a constant distraction to justify its foreign policy and nuclear ambition. Having nuclear weapons will give it tremendous clout in the Islamic world. Moreover, having the ‘enemy’ so far away also gives it a diversion to enforce order within the country.
In all this comes Trump. Unlike previous presidents, Trump does not appear to believe in the grinding and ‘boring’ ideas of IR theories where actions are taken within some rules over time through diplomacy. Presidents just chose the one track of IR they prefer. Trump doesn’t care about following unwritten established rules of the game. As far as he is concerned, it’s about winning and moving on.
Trump is considered not to be a fan of Netanyahu. He just wants the issue resolved and then get on with family business with the oil rich states in Middle East. He seems to deal with issues on the simple art of business that he calls deal making.
So, he believes in every form of deception, surprise and inducement to get the prize. He doesn’t care what he says today and then say something opposite tomorrow. If people think they can decipher policy from his statements, they live in a past world of predictability in politics and IR.
With Iran-Israel, Trump appears to want the problem diffused, not to annoy his pals in Saudi Arabia and UAE, keep the American Jewish lobby happy, not become involved in another long ‘foreign war as he had promised his base and come out as hero who averted WW3. This is a tough one, balancing so many conflicting concerns.
He directed the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities but not engage in a war of attrition. Trump immediately claimed mission accomplished as boasted on his own social media that Iran’s nuclear programme had been completely destroyed. A previous American President (Bush) also boasted of mission accomplished in Afghanistan only to regret later. It is unlikely Trump will regret as he doesn’t care whether mission is accomplished or not, as long as his courtiers sing after him, ‘mission accomplished’. Tomorrow is another day.
Trump is portraying himself as the tough man who used America’s most powerful bunker busting arsenal to thwart the Ayatollahs’ cunning plan of keeping the nuclear centrifuges so deep in the ground that no hostile force can get to them. Iran’s scientists and military must have calculated how deep a bunker busting bomb can go and thus dig deeper than its reach. It seems the calculations were not so correct. The bombs went deep enough.
Netanyahu is happy and able to show off to his colleagues that he can get the most powerful man in the world to do his bidding. The American Jewish lobby is placated. Iran, who was expecting a longer war, is relieved. Trumps Middle East friends are also satisfied that they don’t have to bankroll another Islam verses west conflict. Trump’s base reluctantly endorsed it as masterstroke for ‘thumping’ the enemy but not losing any American lives or wasting more money.
However, there are two pesky trouble makers in all this. There is the investigative press that has prided itself to bringing ‘facts’ to the world. And there is the evangelic jingoism of western Europeans who still want their beloved ‘world order’ and hegemony inflated and provided by American money and power. Most of them have still to come to terms with Trump dumping the Ukraine cause.
Fact is that the nuclear programme is not completely destroyed. The Europeans are dismayed that there isn’t another ‘war’. They like wars. Wars give some of their leaders a ‘hard man’ stature when they are directly or indirectly involved in wars. Trump does not like wars. By going to NATO summit, forcing them to cough up the money and making them swarm, he has gagged that group. They all said in chorus, ‘great work’ in the bombing and almost all are saying, ‘mission accomplished’ in public even if their intelligence services are reporting otherwise in secret.
The press however is another thing. Iran isn’t going to invite them to come and see. They are dependent on reports by the American intel. So, Trump told his intelligence head and his intel agencies to shut up and repeat after me, ‘mission accomplished’. Dutifully they have fallen in line knowing that in Trump era, heads roll for upsetting the boss and not for telling fibs. Elon Musk found that out the hard way.
Netanyahu has learnt to keep his mouth shut as well. His intel tells him that it is not mission accomplished completely. But he knows he won’t get more help and Trump doesn’t really want a protracted war. Best to bask in his new fame that he (Netanyahu) has got Trump around his finger, although not.
And that is the Trump IR world. Its all about personality now. Him, Netanyahu, the Ayatollah, Putin and others are emerging new architects of IR. Modi has been in this field of personalised IR for some time but still has to go along with advice from his seasoned technocrat, Jaishankar, the foreign minister. The Europeans are having to employ psychoanalysts to navigate the new International Relations dynamics. It also seems the end or at least suspension of punditry and the predictable world order they like to be able to pontificate in.
To the question, what will Trump do in any situation? There is no answer. The sour grapes pundits say he listens to the last man who whispers in his ear. The journalists say its all about his ego. The cynics say it is about the Nobel prize. Trump it seems is a genius who proves them all wrong. The news every morning is head scratching now.
