Tag: Iran and Israel

Is Second War Between Iran & Israel In The Works?

By Asad Mirza

The situation is tense again after the 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel in June. The US and Israel are threatening to attack Iran’s nuclear programme, while Tehran has announced to continue uranium enrichment.

Meanwhile, threats of war and counter-statements are coming from both sides, but a senior army officer close to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has claimed that the US is unable to attack Iran due to its economic and military limitations.

Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said in an interview with Lebanon’s Al-Mayadeen channel that, “If the US feels that it cannot defeat Iran through war and wants to negotiate for a real solution, then we will respond positively. But if the talks are an excuse to prepare for war, then it is useless for us.” Larijani’s statement on the one hand shows the possibility of a diplomatic solution, while on the other hand it also raises questions about America’s intentions.

On their part, France, the United Kingdom and Germany have warned Iran that if it does not resume nuclear talks and produce concrete results by the end of August, UN sanctions may be reimposed. After the military attacks launched by Israel in June and the US bombing of three Iranian nuclear installations on the ninth day, the Trump administration had claimed that Iran’s nuclear programme was over. However, Iran has repeatedly said that its nuclear programme is for civilian use only and it has no intention of making a bomb.

But in reality, at present, amid the stalling of nuclear talks and fears of military tensions, both sides are engaged in war preparations. Iran has insisted on strengthening its military preparations, while Israel and the US are constantly threatening military action.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei warned at a press conference in Tehran on Monday (August 18), that Israel’s expansionism, if left unchecked, could drag the Middles East region into “endless wars.

Baghaei sounded the alarm while slamming Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent claims about realising the so-called “Greater Israel” vision, which Netanyahu described as including occupied Palestinian territories and parts of neighbouring Arab states.

This “Greater Israel” idea has laid bare Israel’s domineering and expansionist nature, Baghaei said. Baghaei said that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) deputy director general’s visit to Iran earlier this month aimed to establish guidelines for Iran-IAEA interactions after Israeli and US attacks on Iran’s peaceful nuclear facilities in June. He added that more talks between Iran and the UN nuclear watchdog are due to take place in the coming days.

Meanwhile, The General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, the top most military body in Iran, controlling both the Iranian Army and the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) has sternly warned the United States and the Zionist regime against any renewed aggression against the Islamic Republic, stressing that such folly will be met with a crushing response much stronger than that of the 12-day imposed war in June.

The top Iranian military body released a statement on Saturday (August 16), as it commemorated the release anniversary of the prisoners of war from Iraq.

The statement was followed by a warning by top military adviser to Iran’s supreme leader on Sunday (August 17), that another war with Israel or the United States was likely, dismissing the current ceasefire as just another phase in the conflict.

“We are not in a ceasefire; we are in a stage of war. No protocol, regulation, or agreement has been written between us and the US or Israel,” said IRGC General Yahya Rahim Safavi. “I think another war may happen, and after that, there may be no more wars.”

Safavi’s comments are the latest in a series of combative remarks from military leaders on both sides, with Israel’s army chief vowing readiness for further strikes and Iran’s General Staff warning of “a far stronger response” to any future attacks by US or Israel.

As Tensions heat-up a middle eastern expert says that he believes that an all-out war could begin again by the end of August. There’s a catch, however — Israel won’t be able to sustain such a military venture without the US fully backing its efforts, according to Trita Parsi, the executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

While both Israel and Iran keep their weapons stores “under wraps,” Parsi said that Western intelligence assessments indicated that Iran “still has 1,600 missiles that can reach Israel.”

Israel, on the other hand, was already “running low on interceptors,” including Arrow 3 interceptors. “The exact levels are unknown, but much indicates that Israel could not have continued the war much longer (unless the US entered it fully),” Parsi told the Express US.

Nevertheless, Israel seems to be relying on US aid, he said. In an article for Foreign Policy, which was also sent to the Express US, Parsi wrote, “Israel is likely to launch another war with Iran before December — perhaps even as early as late August.”

Iran is already anticipating another Israeli attack against it, Parsi said, and is “preparing.” In the first 12-day war, he said the Middle Eastern country “played the long game, pacing its missile attacks as it anticipated a prolonged conflict.”

That means two things — the first is that Iran has enough missiles to fight a war of attrition, and the second is that it’s likely to change its strategy in the case of a second war.

“In the next round, however, Iran is likely to strike decisively from the outset, aiming to dispel any notion that it can be subdued under Israeli military dominance,” Parsi wrote.

“As a result, the coming war will likely be far bloodier than the first,” he added. And that poses a serious issue for the US, he said, should the country join the conflict.

The expert went on to say that Israel’s war back in June, was “never solely about Iran’s nuclear programme.” Instead, it was about “shifting the balance of power in the Middle East.”

“For more than two decades, Israel has pushed the United States to take military action against Iran to weaken it and restore a favourable regional balance — one that Israel cannot achieve on its own,” Parsi wrote.

“In this context, Israel’s strikes had three main objectives beyond weakening Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. It sought to draw the United States into direct military conflict with Iran, to decapitate the Iranian regime, and to turn the country into the next Syria or Lebanon — countries that Israel can bomb with impunity and without any US involvement,” he continued.

Only one of those goals was realised, however, Parsi said. The US was drawn into the conflict, but Iran’s regime was not incapacitated. And neither was its nuclear programme, he added.

Overall, the chances of another round of war between Iran and Israel seems rather slim, as Israel is currently focussed on getting Gaza free of Gazans, to annex more unauthorised territory, an action against which no strong international condemnation or counter has come so far. Meanwhile, US President Trump is preoccupied with his tariff wars and political and economic situation back home and seems least interested to start another war, which may ultimately prove to be his nemesis.

(The writer is a New Delhi-based senior commentator on strategic affairs, environmental issues, an interfaith practitioner, and a media consultant.)

Iran-Israel – What Just Happened

Iran-Israel – What Just Happened

By Jasdev Singh Rai

Iran’s drone and missile retaliation for Israel bombing its Embassy in Lebanon has pushed Israel into a political maze with no clear exit in sight. That is the ingenious strategy of the Iranian Mullahs if they can pull it off. Israel’s position appears to be weakened. If it retaliates, many of its ‘friends’ or partners in the international community will be extremely unhappy; some will turn against it. Moreover, Iran will probably escalate it to a full war, which the world wants to avoid. If it does not retaliate, Israel will look weak and the regional challengers to it will become more confident.

Militarily, Israel is the superior of the two countries. Its arms technology is highly advanced and its famous Iron Dome defence systems have won the admiration of the most advanced military powers. It also has the added advantage of having a nuclear capability that may have been a powerful deterrence to any ambitious powers in the neighbourhood. It prides in a highly efficient army. Most importantly its second deterrence has been its willingness to strike back harder and mercilessly.

Israel has laid waste to Gaza and killed over 33,000 Palestinians in response to the October 7 attacks by Hamas. The ferocity has shocked not only the Palestinians but rest of the world too. Israel has a history of ‘taking out’ military commanders and scientists of its adversaries, particularly Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas. Under its current foreign policy and defence policies, it cannot simply sit back and let the Iranian attack unanswered. Its prestige, its deterrence factor and its own concept of security are at stake. It is caught between a reckless reaction or limited reaction to appease its own population.

How did it come to this? The Iranian leadership, it has to be said, is capable of extraordinary intrigue and strategy. In the second Iraq war, Iran was a major instigator behind the scenes to push the United States to attack Iraq and hence rid Iran of its arch enemy, the Saddam regime. Iran did not achieve that by any direct or indirect diplomacy with US.

Iran had nurtured four secret agents and put them close to the Saddam regime. These people probably didn’t know each other. Each of them then defected to different agencies of the USA. Each of them had a similar base story but a different ending. They told the FBI, CIA, and State Department that Saddam was indeed developing nuclear and chemical weapons. They even identified underground locations where this was allegedly happening. Each of them had a different ‘intelligence’ to give on the stage of the development of the weapons of mass destruction.

United States agencies were very competitive at that time and didn’t like to disclose their ‘source’ to the other agency. So each agency was pushing the narrative that they had absolute confirmation that Saddam was developing nuclear weapons but neither would disclose their ‘source’. The narrative appeared convincing as each defector gave incremental time span for final development of the nuclear bomb.

The US under Bush was looking for any excuse to attack Iraq after 9/11. Justifying it by the WMD story, it attacked Iraq and got rid of Saddam for Iran without realising what it was doing, until quite late when it tried to instal Chalabi as Vice President and discovered that he was in fact a suspected Iranian agent!

Now too, Iran has woven a spider’s web and choreographed the event and responses. It engaged in loudspeaker strategy of its intentions. It alerted Israel and all its partners about what it was about to do and what weapons it will use.

The first principle of any attack is meant to be the ‘surprise’ to catch the enemy asleep. Here Iran was declaring everything so that the ‘enemy’ and its partners had enough time to put up appropriate defence. And so they did. According to Israel, UK and USA, 99% of the drones and missiles were brought down before they reached their target. The coalition declared that Iran’s 301 drones and missiles had failed!

However, some missiles did reach targets despite the Iron Dome, advanced American and British counter drone-missile technology and an almost week’s warning to prepare.

ALSO READ: Terror Attack in Iran Augurs Bad Omen for W Asia

Iran, it seemed, was reckoning on all its drones and missiles being neutralised. It did not want any civilian casualties. And it was not really declaring war. It was a much announced megaphone warning to Israel and its partners that it will retaliate and that it has more advanced technology in wait if it comes to war.

That a few of the missiles hit targets has shown that if Iran were to mount 500 or more drones and missiles of the same calibre, it could hit a few targets with devastating damage. Secondly, it has also indicated that it has even more advanced technology to overcome the defensive systems of its ‘enemies’.

The most important outcome of the Iranian action is that it has politically incapacitated Israel and punctured its ‘invincibility’ factor in the Middle East. Again it has used its ‘enemy’ to supress its other ‘enemy’, Israel.

Iran has told USA that it will attack American targets if USA gets involved further. Its proxy, the Houthis, have already cornered British capabilities. The Americans know that Iran could damage many of its oil interests in the Middle East, which will send oil prices rocketing and the economy downhill.

Both USA and UK have leant on Israel to back off from further action. Israel is also fearful that it may not be able to rely on American and European support. It cannot be sure whether it can damage Iran without causing considerable damage to itself in destruction and human life. Israelis won’t forgive their government for this. Israel may triumph in the beginning, but in the long term it will be a shell of its current self.

The invincibility factor is disappearing. All that is left is a regime high on inflamed octane wanting to reassert its fierce factor in the region without knowing what to do. If Israel does something, it will backfire. If it doesn’t do anything, the Netanyahu regime’s bubble will be burst. The Nuclear deterrent won’t work for the simple reason that the whole world will turn against it. Iran may even pull in Russian or North Koreans nuclear arsenal in the conflict. A nuclear strike on Israel will decimate it considerably. America didn’t use a single nuclear weapon in any of the wars it was losing since Second World War.

Biden did try to explain to Netanyahu to learn from the American experience in Iraq and Afghanistan which significantly deflated American power and allowed its competitors to rise in the world of power. Netanyahu didn’t listen, but chose to bombard Gaza relentlessly.

Iran, it needs to be understood, is an ancient power with long history of strategic abilities. Just because regimes change, doesn’t mean wisdoms and experience are lost. The training of an Iranian Mullah is not just the Quran. They spend three years in the study of the Quran, a year in western philosophy, a year in other philosophies such as Hinduism, Confucian etc. A year studying basic science and international relations and a year in critical thinking. It’s a seven-year course to match any PhD in the world. They are not simple priests that one encounters in many developing world.

The future for the current Israel regime is uncertain. Perhaps the best way forward is for Israel to come to terms with its limitations, change its leadership and seek coexistence within Middle East rather than surviving on the‘fearful factor’. Through this very difficult crisis, it needs a change of direction, just as the USA did after humiliations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Ironically, Iran can be a key to its conflict with Hamas and the door to a peaceful future. Israel needs a leadership that can engage through diplomacy and chart a different future for it.

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