Dr Yasir Ali Mirza,a Visiting Research Fellow at IPSA, New Delhi, says Iran’s retaliation against the US has exposed the vulnerabilities of American military might. His views:
Iran is facing the most dangerous existential threat since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. The on-going US-Israeli invasion has significantly escalated the situation in the Islamic Republic. It is facing maximum pressure, yet, is successfully intact after days of military onslaught. Latest media reports suggest that Tehran has forced the US to eat humble pie in this battle of nerves and firepower.
Iran survived the initial shock of the targeted killings of their Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei and other top leaders and military commanders; it responded swiftly. The second whammy came when the Secretary General of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, was killed in unprecedented strikes as it sparked the concern about its future. Iran, historically, has been capable in dealing with these extreme scenarios with grit and resilience.
Iran is at a critical juncture, and is pushed against the wall. Iran has survived the initial shock, but the coming days will determine how it can weather this storm, or, if the accumulated pressure of war, geopolitical posturing, economic hardship and internal disturbances will ultimately prove insurmountable. The present scenario suggests that these factors are creating uncertainty and a protracted conflict scenario in the Middle East.
Since the beginning of the Cold War, the US has acted as a self-appointed global hegemon, dominating international security and economic spheres through approximately 800 military bases worldwide, facilitated by its notorious Military Industrial Complex (MIC). Washington’s singular objective has been the security of the Zionist entity — Israel. Iran remains the only obstacle to Israel’s territorial ambition to dominate the region and extend its influence beyond its present geographical boundaries. In turn, Israel provides the US with a strategic foothold in the region.
Netanyahu has been demanding military intervention since the early phase of the Islamic Revolution. He is the main lynchpin behind Trump’s mindless war. This serves two interests: Israel’s expansionist policies and regional geopolitical ambitions, with the US maintaining its strategic and energy interests in the region. Decimating Iran’s capabilities, or achieving regime change, followed by the decline of the ‘Axis of Resistance’, would permanently shift the balance of power in their favour.
The pre-emptive attack, justified on the pretext of an imminent Iranian nuclear threat amid diplomatic negotiations, is merely an excuse to legitimise the invasion. This war is absolutely illegal, lacking any basis under international law or sanction from any global forum. Trump now finds himself strategically isolated, facing a prolonged conflict with no clear exit, while NATO and EU allies are unwilling to help.
Iran’s effective retaliation against the US military bases and other installations has exposed the vulnerabilities of the so-called US military might. The security guarantees it once extended to its allies in the Gulf Sheikhdoms now seem hollow, leaving them exposed and abandoned, and forced to choose between an isolated US and a retaliatory Iran. Multiple strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure has expanded the war into a regional theatre, advancing a strategy of attrition aimed at undermining the economic viability of sustained US presence.
The MAGA support base is likely to crumble. The dynamics of regional geopolitics have already changed by Iran’s defiance. It has challenged the limits of uni-polarity. Trump’s military adventure may well prove to be the Waterloo of the American Empire. In its wake, a new world order is likely to emerge, one defined by multi-polarity that has long been on the horizon.
Despite damage inflicted by Iran, Israel’s strategic posture is likely to remain assertive. The Paradoxically, the on-going instability can consolidate its illegal occupation of Palestine. It remains engaged against Hezbollah to deter resistance from the Lebanese Shia Movement along its northern border. In the West Bank, sustained military operations and continued settlement activity reflect long-term security concerns.
In Syria, following the removal of Bashar al-Assad, actors such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, who has past links to al-Qaeda, have reshaped the landscape in ways Israel continues to monitor closely. Israel would expand its occupation by annexing maximum territories and advancing its sinister project of ‘Greater Israel’ — rooted in biblical claims. This phenomenon will persist as long as the powerful pro-Israel Jewish lobbies continue to influence the contours of US foreign policy.
(The narrator He has widely travelled to Iran and Iraq and completed his Ph.D. on Role of Iran in Post-Saddam Iraq: Political and Ideological Dimensions.)
As told to Amit Sengupta
