God, Don’t Break Our Hearts…

So what is happening in Gaza right now? Is there optimism in the air? Is that woman on the street smiling? Or, is it a half-smile, hiding a deeper reality? Will this sudden, infectious joy spread across the vast graveyards of solitude?

It’s ceasefire now after 13 months of Genocide in Gaza. A totally discredited Joe Biden (after pumping $23 billion worth of deadly weapons, bombs and arms to Israel since it all started), still wants to take credit. Earlier, Donald Trump had threatened that “all hell will break lose in the Middle East” if Hamas does not release the captured Israeli hostages before he enters the White House.

There is a wave of ‘great expectations’ floating in the dilapidated refugee camps and open-air shelters in Gaza, where the war-smoked air is heavy with dying and death, hunger and epidemics, mourning, and mass psychological trauma.

The bombing has been relentless, while the talks were on. Yesterday, 60-plus dead, or more. How many today? Reports say that 15 children were killed every day in the recent past.

Most of them innocent civilians, of course. Because Hamas fighters are underground, in the tunnels. So, as usual, they choose to kill ordinary folks, disarmed, helpless, out in the open.

It is well-known that Israel targets women and children especially, often through surveillance, and kills them, because they don’t want either women or children to resurrect the ‘tree of life’ in Palestine. The orthodox hardliners have always wanted what was the original Nazi project: ‘The Final Solution!’

That is, total elimination of the Palestinian people and total occupation of their ancient homeland. So that the fraudulent and mythical Jewish ‘holy land’ can be finally achieved. Mass slaughter thereby becomes a ‘sacred act’. A divine project.

Yesterday, I saw an Al Jazeera video report — ‘on the spot’ — from inside Gaza. In a context whereby almost 200 journalists have been killed, often as targeted assassinations by snipers, drones and bombing of marked buildings, this is good news for the people out there. And journalists desperate to enter Gaza and report from the ground.

Talking to the reporter, a mother with her little one, say that there is an “atmosphere of hope, of optimism” in the air. She says that it will be good if the non-stop bombing stops once and for all. “If the ceasefire happens, my first question to my friends and family would be ‘what are your plans, your dreams’?”

Well, the resilience of the people of Gaza has always been beyond the impossible, and history is replete with such stories of their guts and bravery — and the desire to live and start anew. Undoubtedly, no ‘Final Solution’ can ever succeed in the face of such infinite courage. If Maxim Gorky’s great novel, Mother could be written again in our times, it should be on the ‘Great Mothers of Gaza’, dead and alive.

And those who will live to tell the tale.

According to Al Jazeera, an old man, in a tent, said, crying, “I love my homeland. I love the soil I live in. As many as 45 people survive on one kilo of flour.”

A woman said, on the street, “My main aim is to seek eye-treatment. I want to see. I want to see the world!” With no medical treatment available, her retina had become worse during this one-sided war. Now she wants to see again.

ALSO READ: Gaza On Their Lips

Others want to go home. Meet their families, friends, neighbours and relatives. Perhaps, mourn for the dead, collectively, so that the wounds can be healed.

The video shows that people are walking on the ravaged streets, others are out in the open, some cars are on the road, and kids — those who have survived the bombs — are laughing and playing around.

Another video shot by unknown people has gone viral on social media. A young man in a refugee camp is smiling. Yes, smiling. Almost happy! And he is holding a big hammer. Why, for God’s sake?

He says, the smile refusing to leave his haggard, bearded face, that he has been keeping the hammer below his pillow, hoping against hope that finally there will be peace in the morning; and then, he will dismantle his tent with the hammer.

And, perhaps, yet again, start a new life — with hammer, sickle, iron in the soul, wearing shoes and socks, in a shirt and trouser, warm clothes, planting a seed of an Olive tree which they love so much, water it with his blood and sweat, and, then, grow an utopian orchard of Olive trees on the rubble.

Bisan is an intrepid young Palestinian woman reporter, who has been reporting from Gaza (or somewhere unknown). She has posted, “Two million Palestinians in Gaza and millions outside, are waiting for the ceasefire right now, tired, hungry, grieving and helpless. God don’t break our hearts.”

Early this week, Hind Khoudary, another brave woman journalist, was seen hugging her colleague, in a nameless location. They seem to be strong, optimistic. Yes, almost happy!

She said in an interview: “When people ask me, why did you stay in Gaza? My answer is simple. I am in love with Gaza.”

Yesterday, there wee signs of hope in Gaza, after a long, long time. Today there is great joy, deep inside, certainly, mixed with infinite pain. Perhaps, a sense of relief.

Now, once journalists, writers, filmmakers and story-tellers enter Gaza, there will be so many stories to be discovered, inside the rubble and outside, on their skin smeared with faded, clotted blood, in their simmering wounds; there will be stories in the half-burnt pictures of loved ones which have still managed to survive in a half-burnt kitchen wall of a half-burnt home.

There will be a bunch of wild purple flowers, swaying with the winter wind, which have grown through the crevices of that destroyed building, defying the bombs, promising eternal life.

Rusted with fire, old steel trunks will be dug out from the remains of their lost, shattered memories, bangles, keffiyehs, letters, photo albums; sweaters stitched so meticulously, with the nimble fingers of a grandmother, like an artist; love stories and stories of separation; messages, which never managed to reach their destination.

The clock had stopped!

Hand-written letters, un-posted, un-stamped, un-addressed, scattered like ruins of a sublime relationship. A sister who could not see her brother for years because she was in Gaza, and he was in West Bank; because the check-points did not allow it; the brother, who reached out, because her mobile messages simply stopped coming one day.

He soon discovered that she, a dedicated doctor, who lived in a bombed out building and slept on a broken chair, was murdered while travelling to her hospital. Like so many doctors and nurses.

There will be not ‘One Hundred Years of Solitude’, like that epic novel by Gabriel Garcia Marquez. There will be no magic realism here. There will be a million years of solitude and sadness stalking the sudden, solitary, serenity of this silence.

And feverish eyes will hide many more stories. They will run away from other eyes. Fingers will ache to hold the fingers of those who are no more — that warm touch. Oh!

Gone. Forever.

Making Sense of Ukraine and Gaza

Making Sense of Ukraine and Gaza When the Media Turns Fickle

Is the focus of the international media fickle? Since October when the Israel-Hamas war broke out in Gaza, much of the international media’s focus has moved from Ukraine to the Middle East. Russia’s offensive in Ukraine began in February 2022 and in three months, it will have lasted for two years, which is by any measure a very long period. The war there shows no sign of abating but the global media’s focus appears to have shifted to the Middle East. Reports on Ukraine and what is happening there don’t make it to the front pages of newspapers, news websites, or as the top stories on TV news channels.

Journalists sometimes explain these shifts as a response to reader (or viewer) fatigue that can set in when people are bombarded constantly with news about one situation, in this case the conflagration in Ukraine, which has been hogging prime time news and front-page headlines for months. There could be other reasons for the shift in focus.

The Middle East conflict is one of the most long-standing and complex issues in the world, involving many sensitive and controversial topics such as colonialism, imperialism, self-determination, self-defense and the Holocaust. It is also more dynamic and unpredictable: a conflict such as the ongoing one in Gaza can quickly escalate and involve other neighbouring nations such as Iran or others belonging to the Arab world. Also, the degree of involvement of global players such as the US in the area is higher. So is the polarisation among the world’s nations on the issue of who they support–Israel or Hamas. 

In journalistic terms, the Middle East generates more news and updates compared to the relatively localised and contained situation in Ukraine. The situation in the Middle East, for instance, can directly impact the interests, stability, and security of several countries both in the regions as well as in the West. Instability in the Middle East can affect global oil prices and trade and, therefore, the global economy in a far bigger way than Russia’s ongoing offensive in Ukraine. Thus, it could be a more relevant and urgent issue for media outlets and their consumers.

Still, the loss of media attention on Ukraine could have an impact on the struggle against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. International awareness of what is happening there is of importance for Ukraine in order for it to continue to get support from its international allies and sympathisers. If the focus of the global media on the region falters, Ukraine could find it hard to counter Russia’s propaganda and disinformation aimed at undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty.

What is happening in Ukraine right now? Let’s do a quick recap. Since February 2022, Russia has launched a major military offensive against Ukraine, violating the 2015 Minsk agreements that aimed to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Russia has amassed over 100,000 troops along the border with Ukraine, as well as deployed tanks, artillery, drones, and cyberattacks. It claims that it is defending the rights of the Russian-speaking population in the Donbas region, where pro-Russian separatists have been fighting the Ukrainian government since 2014. 

However, Ukraine and its Western allies accuse Russia of aggression and territorial expansion, and have imposed sanctions and provided military aid to Ukraine. The fighting has intensified in recent weeks, especially along the Lyman front in northeast Ukraine, where Ukraine says it has repelled several Russian attacks with heavy casualties on both sides. The situation remains tense and volatile, as diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the crisis have failed so far.

How could it end in Ukraine? There are different scenarios that could emerge in the region. First, with neither side showing signs of compromising or giving up, the war might continue for months or years as Russian and Ukrainian forces grind each other down. The economic and humanitarian costs of this could be enormous.

In a scenario where, say, Russia wins by launching a very large-scale offensive and overruns most of eastern and southern Ukraine, including the strategic port city of Mariupol. If Ukraine is unable to resist or counterattack, and its Western allies offer only limited support, Russia could consolidate its control over Crimea and create a land corridor to it. Ukraine would be left weakened and isolated, and its aspirations to join NATO and the EU would come to nought.

If, however, Ukraine, with the help of its Western allies and partners, manages to repel or deter a large-scale Russian invasion and inflict heavy casualties on Russia, the Kremlin would face further international isolation and condemnation, while Ukraine could gain confidence and recognition and move closer to joining NATO and the EU. 

The other less predictable factor is, however, how China’s clearly proclaimed support of Russia will play out in the emerging scenario. Beijing has endorsed its friendship with Russia but as of now it has not directly played a role in the ongoing conflict. If Russia decides to scale up its offensive by invading other countries in the neighbourhood, such as Belarus or Moldova, or uses nuclear weapons, things could go out of hand and the war could spin into a global crisis of dangerous proportions.

What is happening in Gaza right now? The conflict between Israel and Hamas, the Islamist group that controls the Gaza Strip, is one of the longest and most intractable in the Middle East. The latest round of violence erupted in October 2023, after a series of provocations and clashes in Jerusalem, the West Bank, and Gaza. Hamas and other militant groups fired thousands of rockets at Israel, while Israel responded with airstrikes and ground operations in Gaza. The war has killed more than 1,200 people in Gaza and 50 in Israel, and displaced more than 300,000 in Gaza and 100,000 in Israel. The war has also sparked unrest and violence among Israeli Arabs and Jews, and increased tensions with neighboring countries and regional powers.

How could it end in Gaza? In one scenario, it could end with a ceasefire agreement, which could be mediated by Egypt, the US, and the United Nations. The agreement could lead to opening border crossings, relaxing the blockade of Gaza and ensuring rebuilding of its infrastructure and disarmament of Hamas. However, the status of Jerusalem, the fate of Palestinian refugees, or the prospect of a two-state solution in the region would still remain elusive and that could mean that the embers of discontentment and conflict would continue to smoulder. Violence could erupt again and a rerun of the current conflict could happen anytime.

 In the unlikely event that one side achieves a decisive victory then there could be other scenarios. For instance, if Israel eliminates Hamas’s leadership and capabilities, or if Hamas inflicts significant damage and casualties on Israel. The victory could also be influenced by the level and nature of the international involvement and pressure. The victory could create a new balance of power and reality on the ground, but it could also generate more resentment and resistance among the defeated side.

There is another disturbing scenario that could emerge and that is if the war continues indefinitely, with neither side able to defeat or deter the other. The war then becomes a chronic and low-intensity conflict in the region, punctuated by occasional flare-ups and quiet spells. This scenario would take a heavy toll on the civilian population, the economy, and the environment, and would hobble the prospects of peace and coexistence. It could also make the region more vulnerable to interference and involvement by external powers such as the West or China.

If, however, both sides see the benefits of a negotiated settlement, it could augur well for the regions. If a serious and sincere negotiation, involving all the relevant parties and stakeholders, is possible, and if it could address the root causes and grievances of the conflict there could be a possibility of a long-term comprehensive solution. 

Such a negotiated accord would need mediation by a third party, say the US, the UN, or the Arab League. The aim of such a settlement, however, would have to be mutual recognition and respect, a stop to hostilities, and, most importantly, the creation of an independent Palestinian state coexisting with Israel. All of those, at least now, seem to be a tall order.

As the two wars continue and the media focus on each vacillating, the world must hope that neither of them turns into a full-blown conflagration. For that would be a catastrophe for all.

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A Guide to Israel-Hamas Conflict and What it Means for India

The conflict between Israel and Hamas is a complex and long-standing one, involving historical, religious, political, and territorial issues. For over a hundred years, Arabs and Jews have been conflicting over ownership of the Holy Land, which is a region in the Middle East that is sacred to adherents or followers of four religions: Judaism, Christianity, Islam and Baháʼí.

Where is the Holy Land? It is located between the Mediterranean Sea and the Eastern Bank of the Jordan River. In modern day, it includes parts of Israel, Palestine, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Egypt. It is called the Holy Land because it is where God is believed to have interacted with his people in various ways throughout history. For Jews, it is the land that God promised to Abraham and his descendants. For Christians, it is the land where Jesus was born, lived, preached, died and resurrected. For Muslims, it is the land where the Prophet Muhammad ascended to heaven from Jerusalem, and where many holy sites are located. For Baháʼís, it is the land where Bahá’u’lláh, the founder of their faith, lived and died.

What is the background of the conflict? Israel is a Jewish state that was established in 1948 in the Middle East, following the end of the British mandate and the United Nations partition plan that divided the land between Jews and Arabs. The Arab states rejected the plan and attacked Israel, but Israel defended itself and expanded its territory. Since then, Israel has fought seven major wars with its Arab neighbours and faced resistance from Palestinian groups that claim the right to self-determination and statehood in the same land.

Hamas is an Islamist militant group that emerged in 1987 as a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood was founded in 1928 by Hassan al-Banna, an Egyptian schoolteacher, who preached implementing traditional Islamic Sharia law in all aspects of life, from everyday problems to the organisation of the government. Hamas emerged during the first Palestinian uprising (intifada in Arabic) against Israeli occupation. Hamas rejected Israel’s existence and wanted its destruction through armed struggle and terrorism. Hamas also opposes the moderate Palestinian Authority (PA) that governs part of the West Bank. Unlike Hamas, the PA wants a negotiated settlement with Israel.

What is Gaza? It is a coastal strip of land that borders Israel and Egypt and is home to about 2.3 million Palestinians, most of whom are refugees or descendants of refugees who fled or were expelled from their homes in what is now Israel during the 1948 war. Gaza has been under Israeli blockade since 2007, when Hamas seized control of the territory from the PA after winning parliamentary elections in 2006. Israel says the blockade is necessary to prevent Hamas from smuggling weapons and rockets into Gaza, while Palestinians say it amounts to collective punishment and violates their human rights.

When did the current conflict start? On October 7, Hamas, in a surprise attack on Israel, fired thousands of rockets at Israeli cities and towns; and also breached the border with Israel, sending in hundreds of gunmen who killed and kidnapped civilians and soldiers. Hamas claimed its assault was in response to Israel’s continuing oppression of Palestinians and its plans to annex parts of the West Bank.

As a counter-offensive, Israel declared war on Hamas and launched a massive aerial campaign against Gaza, targeting Hamas leaders, hideouts, infrastructure, and media outlets. Israel also warned Palestinians in Gaza to evacuate their homes or face imminent destruction. Israel said that its goal was to restore deterrence and security for its citizens, and that it held Hamas responsible for all casualties and damages.

What has been the impact of the conflict? It has had a devastating impact, both on the Israeli side as well as the Palestinian. And, as expected, the ripples have affected the rest of the world. Latest estimates say more than 1,200 Israelis have been killed, mostly civilians, while more than 1,000 Palestinians have died in Gaza, many of them children. Many thousands have been injured or displaced by the violence. The situation in Gaza is dire, as electricity, water, fuel, and medical supplies are running low. The international community has condemned the escalation and called for an immediate ceasefire, but so far no diplomatic efforts have succeeded in ending the hostilities.

How has it affected the global economy and India? The Middle East is a vital source of energy and a key transit route for global commerce. Instability in the region could have serious consequences for oil supply and demand, as well as for consumer prices and inflation.

India, as one of the world’s largest importers of crude oil, is particularly vulnerable to such shocks. A sustained rise in oil prices could hurt India’s economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, increase its fiscal deficit and current account deficit, weaken its currency, and trigger social unrest.

There are other complexities for India because of its strong ties with both Israel and Palestine. This poses a diplomatic challenge for India’s foreign policy. India was one of the first countries to recognize Palestine as a state in 1988, and has supported its cause at several international forums. But India also maintains cordial relations with Israel, which is a major partner in defence, agriculture, technology, and innovation.

India has expressed its concern over the violence and urged both sides to exercise restraint and resume dialogue. India has also pulled out of a chess tournament in Egypt due to security reasons, while some Indian pharma companies have faced difficulties in exporting their products to Israel due to trade disruptions. If the conflict continues or blows up into a bigger war, things could get worse.

The bottomline: The conflict between Israel and Hamas is complex and has a long history. It has huge implications for regional stability, global security and the state of the world economy. While the damage and devastation on both sides is immense and can get worse if the conflict blows into a larger war, for countries such as India, which have trade ties and depend on oil imports from the region, it could spell serious economic damage. The international community must work together to end the violence and facilitate a lasting peace based on a two-state solution that respects the rights and aspirations of both Israelis and Palestinians.