Tag: Israel Hamas Conflict

Could Hamas-Israel War Implode After 12th?

By Jasdev Singh Rai

The Israel-Hamas conflict could take on an unexpected turn after the 13th of December when COP 28 finally ends. This may have been the silent influencer in the Israel -Hamas war that few have paid attention to. Once the UAE is free from COP, and any possibility of disrupting its great moment passes, it is likely that attention will swiftly transfer to Israel -Hamas was and positions will begin to harden.

COP 28 is a very important event for UAE. With 80000 people attending, major decisions being made, all the world’s States represented and World Leaders dropping in, UAE could not afford to risk the Palestinian conflict spreading out and threaten the event.

Most of the Middle East countries cooperated in this situation. UAE didn’t want a security threat stopping the COP. Hence Arab States and Iran have been a bit restrained. 

However COP ends, the mood may change. Iran may feel it is no longer obliged to hold back. Some of the other Middle Eastern countries have also been under immense pressure from their populations to assist the Palestinians.

Israel must be fully aware of this. It is no coincidence that Netanyahu has tried to take advantage of this gap and pounded Palestine remorselessly. Israel’s ferocious attacks appear to be a desperation trying to meet deadlines. Netanyahu gives the impression of a man in a hurry.

The public narrative is that Netanyahu is trying to achieve as much as possible before public opinion within Israel and international opinion generally forces Israel to a ceasefire. However the reality may be that Israel may be aware that the atmosphere of refrain by Muslims countries is likely to change after 12th December, the final day of COP.

The current Israel strategy has done it a great deal of damage. Israel and the Jews in general have benefitted from the sympathy poured by the world after the Holocaust. The Holocaust stands out as an unimaginable crime in world history and the world in general feels a sense of guilt,  understanding and kindness for Jews. Despite antisemitic stories, many countries have enacted antisemitic laws and pursued policies against antisemitism.

However the fury of the Israel State has shocked the world. The October 7 attacks are not endorsed by anyone and rightly condemned almost universally. However the way Israel has responded by killing nearly 20000 Palestine civilians, destroying the Palestine infrastructure, houses and hospitals has numbed this sympathy in many places. Whatever Israel says in its defence, the public narrative hasn’t helped it. Some of the responses by its spokespersons have been arrogant and lacking empathy for the civilian victims of the onslaught.

ALSO READ: Israel-Palestine Conflict – The Never Ending War

The world had expected Israel to show the ‘wisdom’ of the victim, the scars and emotional trauma of the holocaust. The world expects Israel to be kind and benevolent. The images that have gone around the world, show another side.

Of course Israel has the right to defend itself. Israel’s history has been traumatic for thousands of years. It remains insecure with surrounding countries once attempting to remove it out of existence. This fear has hardened Israel’s resolve to survive at any cost and crush external enemies hard. However, what may be militarily right is not always strategically right in the long run.

The October 7 attacks not only shocked and alarmed the Israel public but offended people around the world. Nevertheless, the response has now turned world opinion the other way. The unsuccessful UN Security Council resolution calling for ceasefire is an example. All members except USA were for it. It is likely that in the General Assembly, Israel will have very few friends, if any.

Strategically this may not bode well for Israel. It will isolate the country for a long time. More importantly, antisemitism has now arisen exponentially despite the laws and media gags. This is not a state that Jews generally wish to see. A people scarred by the events of second world war, may find  the rising antagonism very difficult to bear.

Israel needs to act quickly. It needs to accept a ceasefire and appeal to Arab countries to isolate Hamas. It needs to seek a solution and a guarantee for its survival by asking its neighbours for understanding and intervention.

Israel now has only a few days before the Muslim anger against it comes out in the open, becomes entrenched and unshakeable. President Putin has visited UAE. It was surely not a ‘friendly’ visit nor because he had nowhere else to go. He must have offered support for any Arab response to Israel. A general war in Middle East will drag the United States and put it squarely on the other side. US will be forced to ditch Ukraine and lose once staunch allies in the Middle East.

If the revenge offensive against Israel starts, there will also be little sympathy for it around the world, given the imagery that has challenged people’s sentiments. It may be a mistake to think that Arab countries are restrained out of fear around taking on Israel. It may just be that they are letting UAE enjoy its hour of glory around COP 28 and then let rip. Putin’s visit is ominous.

For more details visit us: https://lokmarg.com/

The Never Ending War

The Never Ending War

By Jasdev Singh Rai

It will be misguided to think that the current bloody war in Middle East started on 7th October. It also didn’t start in 1948 when the modern State of Israel was set up. These are just battles in a long war, perhaps the longest war in history of the world.

The Jews have had a very complex history since the first lot of exiled Jews in some 770 BC from the Kingdom of Israel and later Kingdom of Judea. Most of Jewish history and narratives have been of exile, persecutions and yearning for a return to a peaceful land of Israel. Israel is the land promised to Abraham by God.

Palestinians are also descendants of people who lived in these lands. Over the centuries there have been migrations into and out of the land. Palestinians became Muslims under Islamic rule but were of Christian, Jewish and other indigenous faiths before then. There are still a lot of Christian Palestinians.

Christians also believe in the idea of the Promised Land and Paul is considered to have said that the Land was promised to Abraham for the seed of God, meaning followers of Christ.

And then there is Jerusalem, a small piece of earth holy to Jews, Christians and Muslims. The holiest of land in there is only about 3000 feet (900 m) quadrangle in each direction. In there is the Western Wailing Wall, the Al Aqsa Mosque, the Dome of The mount, the Temple Mount and the Church of Holy Sepulchre. There is also the oldest Armenian settlement with parts of this small real estate divided into Jewish Quarter, Christian Quarter and Armenian Quarter as well as of course the Muslim part.

Without going into the history of bloody conflicts between the three religions for control of this small piece of earth and why it is important to each of them and the reasons for the wars over the larger Promised land, it is not difficult to see why the war has been going on for well over two and a half thousand years.

Since the exiles, of which there have been a few, the Jews have also maintained their cohesion through a vision of taking back the Promised Land. Sometimes they went back, only to be pushed out again.

ALSO READ: Israel-Hamas Conflict And How India Is Impacted

Christians have waged crusades to take back the land where Jesus grew up and Muslims have defeated the Crusaders to regain control over the area where Prophet Mohammed rose to heaven.

When Israel was formed in 1948, it was land of hope and peace for Jews who had just suffered the worst form of European antisemitism at the hands of Germans, the holocaust. Israel was carved out of land where Palestinians lived. The Botching British as usual were behind this and just as everywhere else the British have carved States without regard to regional communities, they didn’t consult Palestinians, but left a legacy of bitterness and conflict. India and Pakistan are still not reconciled to their borders and neither are many tribes in ex colonial States in Africa to their countries. Not surprising, Israel and Palestinians are not the best of neighbours either.

The rhetoric on both sides is unrealistic when transposed on the longest tapestry of history. Jerusalem is more than 5,000 years old! The Promised Land is also one of the oldest narrative over which conflicts and more conflicts have influenced people.

Efforts to eliminate one or other, of depriving one or other of access to this land and of destroying ‘forever’ one movement or other have just been pendulating from one side to the other. Even today, Christian Evangelists in USA dream of retaking the land, but first letting Jews take it all and then either to make a pact with them or some think, drive them out.

When Netanyahu and members of his Government and some western countries say that Hamas must be destroyed and eliminated, neither history nor reality is on their side. Hamas is an idea of resistance against what it perceives as Israel oppression and deprivation of its land. It can be called terrorist etc, but the idea will carry on.

When Hamas and its backers say that Israel must be wiped from the land, they too are talking nonsense. A yearning, a hope and a vision  that has been deeply embedded in the religious, cultural and national narrative of Jews for thousands of years, isn’t going to rest or be ‘wiped out’ if it hasn’t so far.

Currently both are pawns in power games of others. The United States is desperate to show a win after disastrous ventures in Iraq, Afghanistan and Ukraine. A win in Israel-Hamas conflict, even if diplomatic, will be seen by it as a road to regaining its posture in the world. Obviously America does not want to expend much resources, as it considers a looming conflict with China could be very draining. Moreover it is already stretched in Ukraine and seeking an end to that conflict.

On the other side is Iran which is seeking dominance in the Muslim world. It is often shunned by many Sunni Arab countries both for being non Arab and being Shia. Iran sees Israel a major obstacle and exploits Israel’s unpopularity among Muslims as a leverage to dominate the Israel-Arab relations.

Almost all Arab States are dictators or Monarchies. They don’t have any appetite for wars as long as they are comfortable in their Kingdoms and not under threat from Israel. But their populations are unhappy with Israel, so they have to show anger and support for Palestinians.

Ultimately, just as it is up to Indians and Pakistanis to find peace with each other to escape enslavement to the narrative left for them by the British, it is for wiser Israeli Jews and Palestinians to sit and find areas of compromise and settlement.

Otherwise this is an ever ending war. In the short run, Israel can indeed push all Palestinians out, given its colossal firepower. However Hamas has learnt a lot from previous conflicts and is trained by Iran. It will weaken Israel if not resist it altogether. So far Iran has been deft at winning conflicts through very clever manoeuvrings and tactics.

A weakened Israel can face great danger. Judaism is not a proselytising religion as Christianity or Islam is. The Jews are surrounded by millions and millions of Muslims with huge resources. If Muslims rise en masse, the history of exile and conflicts will return. Let not history repeat itself. This is an opportunity to find long lasting peace. That is the only desirable final solution. There are no other final solutions that have worked in history.

For more details visit us: https://lokmarg.com/

Making Sense of Ukraine and Gaza

Making Sense of Ukraine and Gaza When the Media Turns Fickle

By Sanjoy Narayan

Is the focus of the international media fickle? Since October when the Israel-Hamas war broke out in Gaza, much of the international media’s focus has moved from Ukraine to the Middle East. Russia’s offensive in Ukraine began in February 2022 and in three months, it will have lasted for two years, which is by any measure a very long period. The war there shows no sign of abating but the global media’s focus appears to have shifted to the Middle East. Reports on Ukraine and what is happening there don’t make it to the front pages of newspapers, news websites, or as the top stories on TV news channels.

Journalists sometimes explain these shifts as a response to reader (or viewer) fatigue that can set in when people are bombarded constantly with news about one situation, in this case the conflagration in Ukraine, which has been hogging prime time news and front-page headlines for months. There could be other reasons for the shift in focus.

The Middle East conflict is one of the most long-standing and complex issues in the world, involving many sensitive and controversial topics such as colonialism, imperialism, self-determination, self-defense and the Holocaust. It is also more dynamic and unpredictable: a conflict such as the ongoing one in Gaza can quickly escalate and involve other neighbouring nations such as Iran or others belonging to the Arab world. Also, the degree of involvement of global players such as the US in the area is higher. So is the polarisation among the world’s nations on the issue of who they support–Israel or Hamas. 

In journalistic terms, the Middle East generates more news and updates compared to the relatively localised and contained situation in Ukraine. The situation in the Middle East, for instance, can directly impact the interests, stability, and security of several countries both in the regions as well as in the West. Instability in the Middle East can affect global oil prices and trade and, therefore, the global economy in a far bigger way than Russia’s ongoing offensive in Ukraine. Thus, it could be a more relevant and urgent issue for media outlets and their consumers.

Still, the loss of media attention on Ukraine could have an impact on the struggle against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. International awareness of what is happening there is of importance for Ukraine in order for it to continue to get support from its international allies and sympathisers. If the focus of the global media on the region falters, Ukraine could find it hard to counter Russia’s propaganda and disinformation aimed at undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty.

What is happening in Ukraine right now? Let’s do a quick recap. Since February 2022, Russia has launched a major military offensive against Ukraine, violating the 2015 Minsk agreements that aimed to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Russia has amassed over 100,000 troops along the border with Ukraine, as well as deployed tanks, artillery, drones, and cyberattacks. It claims that it is defending the rights of the Russian-speaking population in the Donbas region, where pro-Russian separatists have been fighting the Ukrainian government since 2014. 

However, Ukraine and its Western allies accuse Russia of aggression and territorial expansion, and have imposed sanctions and provided military aid to Ukraine. The fighting has intensified in recent weeks, especially along the Lyman front in northeast Ukraine, where Ukraine says it has repelled several Russian attacks with heavy casualties on both sides. The situation remains tense and volatile, as diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the crisis have failed so far.

How could it end in Ukraine? There are different scenarios that could emerge in the region. First, with neither side showing signs of compromising or giving up, the war might continue for months or years as Russian and Ukrainian forces grind each other down. The economic and humanitarian costs of this could be enormous.

In a scenario where, say, Russia wins by launching a very large-scale offensive and overruns most of eastern and southern Ukraine, including the strategic port city of Mariupol. If Ukraine is unable to resist or counterattack, and its Western allies offer only limited support, Russia could consolidate its control over Crimea and create a land corridor to it. Ukraine would be left weakened and isolated, and its aspirations to join NATO and the EU would come to nought.

If, however, Ukraine, with the help of its Western allies and partners, manages to repel or deter a large-scale Russian invasion and inflict heavy casualties on Russia, the Kremlin would face further international isolation and condemnation, while Ukraine could gain confidence and recognition and move closer to joining NATO and the EU. 

The other less predictable factor is, however, how China’s clearly proclaimed support of Russia will play out in the emerging scenario. Beijing has endorsed its friendship with Russia but as of now it has not directly played a role in the ongoing conflict. If Russia decides to scale up its offensive by invading other countries in the neighbourhood, such as Belarus or Moldova, or uses nuclear weapons, things could go out of hand and the war could spin into a global crisis of dangerous proportions.

What is happening in Gaza right now? The conflict between Israel and Hamas, the Islamist group that controls the Gaza Strip, is one of the longest and most intractable in the Middle East. The latest round of violence erupted in October 2023, after a series of provocations and clashes in Jerusalem, the West Bank, and Gaza. Hamas and other militant groups fired thousands of rockets at Israel, while Israel responded with airstrikes and ground operations in Gaza. The war has killed more than 1,200 people in Gaza and 50 in Israel, and displaced more than 300,000 in Gaza and 100,000 in Israel. The war has also sparked unrest and violence among Israeli Arabs and Jews, and increased tensions with neighboring countries and regional powers.

How could it end in Gaza? In one scenario, it could end with a ceasefire agreement, which could be mediated by Egypt, the US, and the United Nations. The agreement could lead to opening border crossings, relaxing the blockade of Gaza and ensuring rebuilding of its infrastructure and disarmament of Hamas. However, the status of Jerusalem, the fate of Palestinian refugees, or the prospect of a two-state solution in the region would still remain elusive and that could mean that the embers of discontentment and conflict would continue to smoulder. Violence could erupt again and a rerun of the current conflict could happen anytime.

 In the unlikely event that one side achieves a decisive victory then there could be other scenarios. For instance, if Israel eliminates Hamas’s leadership and capabilities, or if Hamas inflicts significant damage and casualties on Israel. The victory could also be influenced by the level and nature of the international involvement and pressure. The victory could create a new balance of power and reality on the ground, but it could also generate more resentment and resistance among the defeated side.

There is another disturbing scenario that could emerge and that is if the war continues indefinitely, with neither side able to defeat or deter the other. The war then becomes a chronic and low-intensity conflict in the region, punctuated by occasional flare-ups and quiet spells. This scenario would take a heavy toll on the civilian population, the economy, and the environment, and would hobble the prospects of peace and coexistence. It could also make the region more vulnerable to interference and involvement by external powers such as the West or China.

If, however, both sides see the benefits of a negotiated settlement, it could augur well for the regions. If a serious and sincere negotiation, involving all the relevant parties and stakeholders, is possible, and if it could address the root causes and grievances of the conflict there could be a possibility of a long-term comprehensive solution. 

Such a negotiated accord would need mediation by a third party, say the US, the UN, or the Arab League. The aim of such a settlement, however, would have to be mutual recognition and respect, a stop to hostilities, and, most importantly, the creation of an independent Palestinian state coexisting with Israel. All of those, at least now, seem to be a tall order.

As the two wars continue and the media focus on each vacillating, the world must hope that neither of them turns into a full-blown conflagration. For that would be a catastrophe for all.

For more details visit us: https://lokmarg.com/

Explosion At Gaza

Civilian Deaths Concerning: Modi After Explosion At Gaza Hospital

By LokMarg

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday condoled the loss of lives in an explosion at a hospital in Gaza, saying he was “deeply shocked” by the incident.

Also expressing concern over the mounting civilian casualties in the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, those behind such deaths should be “held responsible”.

Taking to his official handle on X, PM Modi posted, “Deeply shocked at the tragic loss of lives at the Al Ahli Hospital in Gaza. Our heartfelt condolences to the families of the victims, and prayers for speedy recovery of those injured. Civilian casualties in the ongoing conflict are a matter of serious and continuing concern. Those involved should be held responsible.”

Also responding to the attack on a Gaza hospital, US President Joe Biden said earlier on Tuesday that he was “outraged and deeply saddened” after learning of the incident, the White House said in a statement.

The White House statement quoted President Biden as saying further, “I am outraged and deeply saddened by the explosion at the Al Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza, and the terrible loss of life that resulted.”

After learning of the incident, the US President called up Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Jordan’s King Abdullah II.

“Immediately upon hearing this news, I spoke with King Abdullah II of Jordan, and Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel and have directed my national security team to continue gathering information about what exactly happened,” the White House statement quoted Biden as saying.

“The United States stands unequivocally for the protection of civilian life during conflict and we mourn the patients, medical staff and other innocents killed or wounded in this tragedy,” he added.

French President Emmanuel Macron also condemned the attack on the hospital, saying that the attack on civilians cannot be “justified”.

“Nothing can justify striking a hospital. Nothing can justify targeting civilians. France condemns the attack on the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza, which made so many Palestinian victims. Our thoughts are with them. All the light must be shed on the circumstances,” Macron tweeted from his handle on X.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, Tal Heinrich, a spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, told CNN that the IDF “does not target hospitals.”

“We only target Hamas strongholds, arms depots, and terror targets,” he added.

Heinrich made the remarks after Palestinian sources claimed that initial estimates suggest that attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City resulted in 200 to 300 fatalities.

An explosion at the hospital in Gaza City on Tuesday claimed the lives of hundreds of people, according to health authorities in the Hamas-run enclave, Reuters reported.

A Gaza civil defence chief claimed on Al-Jazeera television that over 300 people were killed in the explosion at the Gaza hospital. (ANI)

Read More: https://lokmarg.com/

A Guide to Israel-Hamas Conflict and What it Means for India

By Sanjoy Narayan

The conflict between Israel and Hamas is a complex and long-standing one, involving historical, religious, political, and territorial issues. For over a hundred years, Arabs and Jews have been conflicting over ownership of the Holy Land, which is a region in the Middle East that is sacred to adherents or followers of four religions: Judaism, Christianity, Islam and Baháʼí.

Where is the Holy Land? It is located between the Mediterranean Sea and the Eastern Bank of the Jordan River. In modern day, it includes parts of Israel, Palestine, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Egypt. It is called the Holy Land because it is where God is believed to have interacted with his people in various ways throughout history. For Jews, it is the land that God promised to Abraham and his descendants. For Christians, it is the land where Jesus was born, lived, preached, died and resurrected. For Muslims, it is the land where the Prophet Muhammad ascended to heaven from Jerusalem, and where many holy sites are located. For Baháʼís, it is the land where Bahá’u’lláh, the founder of their faith, lived and died.

What is the background of the conflict? Israel is a Jewish state that was established in 1948 in the Middle East, following the end of the British mandate and the United Nations partition plan that divided the land between Jews and Arabs. The Arab states rejected the plan and attacked Israel, but Israel defended itself and expanded its territory. Since then, Israel has fought seven major wars with its Arab neighbours and faced resistance from Palestinian groups that claim the right to self-determination and statehood in the same land.

Hamas is an Islamist militant group that emerged in 1987 as a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood was founded in 1928 by Hassan al-Banna, an Egyptian schoolteacher, who preached implementing traditional Islamic Sharia law in all aspects of life, from everyday problems to the organisation of the government. Hamas emerged during the first Palestinian uprising (intifada in Arabic) against Israeli occupation. Hamas rejected Israel’s existence and wanted its destruction through armed struggle and terrorism. Hamas also opposes the moderate Palestinian Authority (PA) that governs part of the West Bank. Unlike Hamas, the PA wants a negotiated settlement with Israel.

What is Gaza? It is a coastal strip of land that borders Israel and Egypt and is home to about 2.3 million Palestinians, most of whom are refugees or descendants of refugees who fled or were expelled from their homes in what is now Israel during the 1948 war. Gaza has been under Israeli blockade since 2007, when Hamas seized control of the territory from the PA after winning parliamentary elections in 2006. Israel says the blockade is necessary to prevent Hamas from smuggling weapons and rockets into Gaza, while Palestinians say it amounts to collective punishment and violates their human rights.

When did the current conflict start? On October 7, Hamas, in a surprise attack on Israel, fired thousands of rockets at Israeli cities and towns; and also breached the border with Israel, sending in hundreds of gunmen who killed and kidnapped civilians and soldiers. Hamas claimed its assault was in response to Israel’s continuing oppression of Palestinians and its plans to annex parts of the West Bank.

As a counter-offensive, Israel declared war on Hamas and launched a massive aerial campaign against Gaza, targeting Hamas leaders, hideouts, infrastructure, and media outlets. Israel also warned Palestinians in Gaza to evacuate their homes or face imminent destruction. Israel said that its goal was to restore deterrence and security for its citizens, and that it held Hamas responsible for all casualties and damages.

What has been the impact of the conflict? It has had a devastating impact, both on the Israeli side as well as the Palestinian. And, as expected, the ripples have affected the rest of the world. Latest estimates say more than 1,200 Israelis have been killed, mostly civilians, while more than 1,000 Palestinians have died in Gaza, many of them children. Many thousands have been injured or displaced by the violence. The situation in Gaza is dire, as electricity, water, fuel, and medical supplies are running low. The international community has condemned the escalation and called for an immediate ceasefire, but so far no diplomatic efforts have succeeded in ending the hostilities.

How has it affected the global economy and India? The Middle East is a vital source of energy and a key transit route for global commerce. Instability in the region could have serious consequences for oil supply and demand, as well as for consumer prices and inflation.

India, as one of the world’s largest importers of crude oil, is particularly vulnerable to such shocks. A sustained rise in oil prices could hurt India’s economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, increase its fiscal deficit and current account deficit, weaken its currency, and trigger social unrest.

There are other complexities for India because of its strong ties with both Israel and Palestine. This poses a diplomatic challenge for India’s foreign policy. India was one of the first countries to recognize Palestine as a state in 1988, and has supported its cause at several international forums. But India also maintains cordial relations with Israel, which is a major partner in defence, agriculture, technology, and innovation.

India has expressed its concern over the violence and urged both sides to exercise restraint and resume dialogue. India has also pulled out of a chess tournament in Egypt due to security reasons, while some Indian pharma companies have faced difficulties in exporting their products to Israel due to trade disruptions. If the conflict continues or blows up into a bigger war, things could get worse.

The bottomline: The conflict between Israel and Hamas is complex and has a long history. It has huge implications for regional stability, global security and the state of the world economy. While the damage and devastation on both sides is immense and can get worse if the conflict blows into a larger war, for countries such as India, which have trade ties and depend on oil imports from the region, it could spell serious economic damage. The international community must work together to end the violence and facilitate a lasting peace based on a two-state solution that respects the rights and aspirations of both Israelis and Palestinians.