Category: Focus

As the world faces US-China trade war and looks at a possible limited conflict between Washington and Tehran, Indian diplomacy will require to avoid the minefield

With a massive electoral mandate under his belt, and no strong opposition to thwart him, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is all set to begin his next five-year term on a high.

However, the challenges ahead are daunting. Getting manufacturing up and creating jobs for millions of aspirants remain high on the agenda. Reforms are the other. Without the next generation economic reforms, India’s growth story will remain stunted. A robust economy which attracts foreign investors is a must for a nation’s global profile. For that, Modi and his team will have to take forward the reform agenda, clean up the banking system and the labour laws to attract more investments. Unless the economy gears up and India performs well, the country’s hopes of becoming a major player in the world stage will remain a pipe dream.

Foreign policy will require careful handling. Former foreign secretary Subrahmanyam Jaishankar is the best man to lead the team at this critical juncture. He knows exactly what the challenges are, is completely in sync with both the Prime Minister and Ajit Doval, the National Security Advisor. He is familiar with US politics and was ambassador to China and knows the system well there. He is a Russian language speaker. Also served both in Japan and Singapore. What is more Jaishankar is also familiar with trade negotiations.

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Neighbourhood First is a good policy which will be carried forward this time around. It is fine to have an alternative to SAARC with the BIMSTEC grouping. But Delhi should also give some thought to end its boycott. India cannot indefinitely stop SAARC summits. It is also time to accept that China will pour in funds into South Asia and not get into a panic about encirclement. Instead, Delhi needs to focus on forging closer political ties with its neighbours and build stakes across South Asia, so that leaders of smaller countries will think twice before upsetting the applecart. India should take a leaf out of its own experience in Afghanistan and try to win hearts and minds in the neighbourhood. Modi will be travelling to the Maldives later this month. The challenge is handling US, China and Iran at this critical juncture.

A trade war between the US and China is casting a long shadow over the world economy. Rising tensions between Iran and US, which may eventually lead to a military confrontation, will hit India hard. Oil prices are holding for now, but could rise steeply in case of even a limited war. With US sanctions on Iran now ironclad with no exceptions, Indian diplomacy will need to be extremely nimble to avoid the minefields.

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The big question in Modi’s second term would be whether India will move decisively to the US camp or remain engaged with all sides and work towards a bi polar world. Pressure is on not just from the US, but a large section of the Indian establishment, to get into the US sphere of influence. The pro-US lobby in India believe that being on the side of the only Super Power will open doors for India, including a permanent seat in an expanded UN Security Council. It is a win win situation for India as it also falls in line with India’s strategic interests to checkmate China’s rising political, economic and military might in Asia.

Delhi has to also deal with a troublesome Pakistan, and ensure the backing of major powers for its action against Islamabad if necessary. Luckily for India, Pakistan’s image as a backer of terror outfits is known to the world. All this falls into place if India aligns more deeply with the US, according to those who believe that Delhi must for its own strategic interests move closer to Washington.

These sections believe that Delhi lost out in the early days after independence by remaining aloof from the US. Nations like Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines zoomed ahead economically and were referred to as the Asian Tigers. Despite its relative decline, US remains and way ahead of other countries and will remain in the top slot. It is the world’s dominant economy, its cutting edge technology and its financial markets remain strong.

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It is a win win situation for both countries as there is rare consensus between squabbling Republicans and Democrats that India and US need to forge closer ties to contain China’s ambitions to replace the US as the world’s only super power by 2050. A helping hand from America will help India become a global power much faster.

They point to how the US helped to ensure that China withdraw the technical hold on Masood Azhar being designated a global terrorist. America took much of the credit for turning China around on Azhar. But France and Britain also played a role. There are no free lunches and the US will extract a price for its help. The pressure is already on over Iran. Many believe that India cannot continuously walk the tightrope. It will have to make a choice, especially with a President like Donald Trump at the helm. The pro America lobby want say India cannot play both sides any longer. It needs to make a choice and become an almost but not quite a NATO partner.

Yet there are bilateral problems arising from Donald Trump’s America First policy, which see’s every concession given by the US in the past as a mistake. On Thursday, US announced that

India will lose access to preferential trade terms with the U.S. under the latter’s Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program. This will pinch India, and the differences need to be ironed out. Despite these hiccups, which the US is having with most countries

Unfortunately for India, countries like Russia and Iran regarded as enemy nations by the US, are New Delhi’s friends and traditional allies. Indian and US interests do not match and India cannot afford to toe the US line when it goes against its strategic interests. Modi must continue to carefully balance ties with US with India’s core interests like relations with Russia and Iran. Just because Trump wants to bring Iran to its knees and push Tehran to rework the nuclear deal, India and other countries have to suffer.

Take India’s problems arising from Trump’s decision to slap sanctions on countries buying Iranian oil. India’s ties with Iran go beyond oil. It has always had civilisational links and worked together during the Taliban rule to prop up the Northern Alliance. The Chabahar port in Iran is of strategic importance to India as it opens a lifeline to both Afghanistan and Central Asian countries for Indian products. Delhi’s involvement in the Chabahar Port was to by-pass Pakistan as that country does not allow Indian goods to pass through its territory. Political relations with Iran will be affected if India stops importing oil from Iran because of US sanctions. India’s exports through Chabahar will naturally then take a hit. Trump had slapped sanctions on Iran last November but gave a six month waiver to eight countries, including India. That period has now ended.

Iran’s foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was in India bang in the middle of elections to discuss the sanctions with Sushma Swaraj. He was told that the new government would have to deal with it. Due to banking sanctions imposed by the US for doing business with Iran, India and Iran have been carrying out trade through a rupee account in UCO Bank which has limited exposure in the US. This was done earlier too when Iran was under sanctions. India deposits payments in rupees in Iran’s account for the oil purchased and that is then used to make payments to Indian exporters of goods to Iran. Modi needs to play ball with both Iran and US and come up a winner.

The advantage is that the US is as keen to woo India. Washington would be in a better position to balance out China in Asia with India on its side. India also has a huge market for American companies. In the last decade or so India and bought arms worth $15 billion from the US and more is on the cards. Washington would certainly not want India to join the loose alliance of China, Russia and Iran that is taking shape. So it is not as if India does not have leverage.

So far Narendra Modi has played his cards well. In his first term Narendra Modi was able to befriend the mercurial Donald Trump, sign two of the foundation pacts needed to put into force the India-US defence co-operation agreement, signed earlier during the Manmohan Singh regime and take forward the partnership with the US. Yet he went against the US in closing the purchase of five billion dollar S-400 Triumf surface to air missile defence system with Russian President Vladimir Putin, despite threat of sanctions.

The first delivery of the missile system is slated for 2020. Sanction will likely kick in then. In the meantime the US is hoping to get Delhi to opt for a US built missile shield. By all accounts Modi will continue to play ball with every important country and not lean over completely to America. The Prime Minister is aware of Russia’s crucial support for the Indian position in the past, when US backed Pakistan to the hilt. Last time when the two met at their annual summit in Delhi, Modi made it plain “India gives the highest priority to ties with Russia, in fact in a changing world, our ties have become more important.” The Prime Minister will be meeting. Russian President Vladimir Putin, China’s President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Shanghai Co operation Organisation meeting in n Kyrgyztan’s capital Bishkek on June 13-14. Pakistan’s Imran Khan would also be attending.

India’s neighbours Pakistan and China will continue to occupy the government. The absence of Pakistan‘s Prime Minister Imran Khan for Modi’s inauguration is a stark reminder of the bad blood between the two nuclear armed neighbours. After Pulwama, the Balakot strike, Pakistan’s counter show of strength, and the high decibel rhetoric unleashed by Modi against Pakistan, a cooling off period is necessary. This does not however mean that Modi will not have another shot at peace making with Pakistan. Modi is likely to try again. Perhaps in Bishkek it will be only a handshake, but the PM who loves to be feted internationally, will make an attempt to go down in history as a peace maker.

Imran Khan has said earlier that Narendra Modi would be in a better position to make peace with Pakistan than the Congress. He is bang on. The BJP would take to the streets to oppose any deal made by the Congress with Pakistan. Remember the BJP opposition to the Indo-US civil nuclear deal signed by Manmohan Singh in 2006? Conventional wisdom is that only a hardline BJP government in India and a military dictatorship in Pakistan can strike a peace deal. Prime Minister Imran Khan is making the right noises. It is also known that he is backed by the military. In fact the army wanted Nawaz Sharif out and the PTI in. Army despite its public statements is not comfortable with peace moves. Much will depend on whether the financial action task force (FATF) which has placed Pakistan in the grey zone moves it to the black list. That would make it harder for international financial institutions to lend money to Pakistan and further damage its economy. If that happens the army will not stand in the way of talks with India.

Engaging Pakistan without a change of policy in Kashmir is unlikely to work. Mod must overhaul the current mindless Kashmir policy. But with Amit Shah as home minister, a strong arm policy in Kashmir is likely to continue.

Perhaps even more important than Pakistan will be Delhi’s ties with China. India and China are rivals in Asia and have a complex relationship. Modi obviously wants to continue mending fences with China. Reports of an informal Wuhan type summit between Modi and Xi, in Varanasi, is being talked of for later this year. Getting the equation right with China is pivotal. Chinese companies are already doing good business in India and will be looking for more as America dries up as a market. India can use Chinese expertise for its infrastructure and take a call on the Belt and Road Initiative and work together when it suits India’s interests. Political ties with China will also help in bargaining with the developed world at international forums. BRICS and RIS groupings are already in place. Delhi needs to make the best of these outfits to push India’s agenda on both development and terrorism. Keeping one toe firmly on the US camp helps to keep the Chinese unsettled. All this is easier said than done, but in a changing world India needs to keep a foothold on all camps and make sure its strategic interests are not compromised.

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Given majority in both Houses of Parliament, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s second term in office may see a renewed push in majoritarian agenda.

This must begin with an apology for failing to discern the Tsunami that has brought Prime Minister Narendra Modi to a landslide victory in India’s Elections 2019.

Churlish though it sounds, the fact is that none noticed it. A very toxic and polarizing campaign that raised the decibels of rival claims high even as it brought standards of discourse at their lowest-ever,  made it difficult.   

A 40-day polls process, when several institutions, including the Election Commission, came under the cloud, made that task near-impossible. 

Now that the world’s largest democratic exercise is over, this apology must be followed by a sincere acknowledgement of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s solo score. It can compare well with the one by Indira Gandhi in 1971 when she fought off a united non-Communist opposition’s “grand alliance”. One is not taking into account the popular sympathy vote caused by her assassination in 1984 giving the Congress the highest 400-plus.

Modi and his National Democratic Alliance (NDA) were criticized for winning the 2014 elections with the lowest-ever 31 percent vote-share. At 48 percent today, it can claim to be close to the 1984 score of 49.10 percent. The BJP got 7.7 percent then and only two members won. Tables are totally turned now with the Congress getting just 29 percent vote. Regional parties won 23 percent. Unable to align with some of them when and where needed, Congress, the country’s oldest party is an also-ran today.

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Percentages apart, perceptions matter. They were created by Modi’s oratory and deft media management. Indeed, Modi commands several ‘M’s —  media, money, muscle power in the form of cadres and government agencies that he let loose on critics and above all, brilliant marketing with his oratory, slogan-mongering and ample use of the “humble-me.” 

Dedicated effort has paid. After two consecutive defeats in 2004 and 2009, the BJP, helped by its ideological mentor, the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS), battled its way on the back of an anti-graft movement. Back in power in 2014, it has built the world’s largest cadre-based political party that, under its chief Amit Shah, never stopped working for electoral gains. This victory belongs to those cadres.

By contrast, the Congress’ mass-based goodwill and support are ebbing. It is not ready for such a revamp. Rahul Gandhi has offered to resign. But the party will not accept it. He must slog on along with his housewife-sister Priyanka. The party is destined to remain trapped as a family concern. Psephologist-politician Yogendra Yadav has demanded that the Congress “must die,” but parties don’t. The BJP did not, and the Congress, too cannot. It has no choice but to persist.

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The salt on the Congress’ wounds is Rahul’s defeat in Amethi, the family bastion. If nothing else, he could take lessons from the victor, Smriti Irani, who nursed Amethi despite defeat five years ago.

His love-and-hug ‘soft’ power was a novelty for a while, but its persistence failed against Modi’s hard-headed, even harsh, responses that included constantly attacking the Nehru-Gandhis.  Now that Modi has won and Rahul has lost, it is a moot point why Rahul calling the PM a ‘thief’ (chowkidar chor hai) failed.

Not just the Gandhis, the opposition’s family enterprises failed. The Gowdas of Karnataka, the Pawars of Maharashtra, the Yadavs of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, among many others, were bogged down by family rivalries. By contrast, the BJP took some hard-headed, even controversial decisions, to jettison its founding leaders L K Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi.   

In the next few days if not weeks, some opposition-run state regimes may go. Hindutva hardliners – Giriraj Singh, Sakshi Maharaj, Anantkumar Hegde and others have all won.  On the victory ramp is Pragya Thakur, the terror under-trial out on bail whose nomination was endorsed by Modi who then, in an act of damage control criticized her praise for Mahatma Gandhi’s assassin.

Maharaja Ranjit Singh once predicted total British rule in India saying “sab lal ho jayega.” Today, would he have said: “sab kesri ho jayega?”

The road for the march of communism in Asia, it was said in the last century, would traverse from Moscow to Beijing to Kolkata and beyond. Those prospects have disappeared.  After three decades’ Left rule, West Bengal switched over to Mamata Banerjee and now, to the BJP. 

In ideological terms, the Before-Modi-After-Modi era has consolidated. The pluralist India of Nehru’s dreams and vision that the world has known and praised is passé. India joins the comity of nations led by tough-talking populist right-wing leaders like US President Donald Trump, Turkey’s Erdogen and Hungary Viktor Orban.  

Given majority in both Houses of Parliament, the majoritarian agenda can now be pushed. Also ripe for legislation could be Uniform Civil Code and repealing of Article 370 of the Constitution that removes the special status Jammu and Kashmir enjoys.

It would take a while to know how he Muslims have voted, but given the NDA’s two-thirds majority win it is obvious that this vote has not mattered. In such a situation, the community may reach some understanding on the vexed issue of a Ram temple in Ayodhya.

There may well be some benefits on the economic front from Modi 2.0. Among them could be unshackling of ailing public sector units in favour of private enterprise. In telecom sector, BSNL is unwell and so is MTNL. In aviation, Air India might find buyer(s) if the government writes off some of the liabilities. Just-closed Jet Airways may also revive. Modi could use his Gulf goodwill to help out.

The India Inc. that has placed immense faith in Modi despite many disastrous moves because it sensed the TINA factor and did not want an unwieldy coalition government, can reap some benefits.        

Riding on conflict with Pakistan, Modi, like US President Donald Trump, focused on border to shape a vision of a muscular India. Nationalism was at the heart of the BJP campaign, and that included a citizenship census in the north-eastern state of Assam to raise the threat of Muslim “infiltrators” and show they are curbing the tide of undocumented immigrants at India’s borders.

Yet, Modi has a fan across the border in Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan. He unusually — and controversially – showed open preference for Modi over anyone else to lead India. Old logic goes with it that the South Asian rivals can normalize relations only when a right-wing ‘nationalist’ Indian government (read non-Congress, since that party carries the baggage of the Partition and the Kashmir dispute) and an army-backed Pakistan government.

Khan should be happy to talk with a more agreeable Delhi under Modi. Both would be hiding their iron fists in velvet gloves. But circumstances favouring, they could solve some intractable issues. Why, solving even Kashmir is possible, to the glee of world powers that are tired of it. That would make them eligible for a joint Nobel.

The writer can be reached at mahendraved07@gmail.com

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The BSP leader’s caste is her chief calling card as she has the advantage of tapping into the support of Dalits across the country

When the Bahujan Samaj Party drew a blank in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and was subsequently reduced to a mere 19 seats in the Uttar Pradesh assembly in the 2017 state polls, political observers and analysts were quick to declare that the party’s chief Mayawati had lost her touch and was on her way out.

But there has been a dramatic turnaround since then. As the ongoing Lok Sabha election enters the final phase, the same Mayawati, who was being written off as a political has-been, is being mentioned as a possible Prime Ministerial candidate provided the opposition parties notch up a respectable number of seats to form the next government.

Mayawati herself indicated recently that she has Prime Ministerial ambitions when she declared that she plans to contest the Lok Sabha election. She chose to stay away from the current general election but her decision sorely disappointed her Dalit support base which is pinning its hopes on “Behenji” occupying the country’s top post.

The BSP chief’s latest statement is essentially a message to her supporters that they should come out and vote in large numbers as she is very much in contention for the Prime Minister’s post. If the opposition is in a position to form the government later this month and she does emerge as its Prime Ministerial candidate, rules allow her six months to get elected to either house of Parliament.

Like West Bengal chief minister and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati has the necessary credentials to lead the country. Not unlike Mamata Banerjee, the BSP chief carved out a place for herself in a caste-ridden and patriarchal society to emerge as the unquestioned leader of her party. Mayawati has been a four-time chief minister of the country’s most populous and politically-important state of Uttar Pradesh; has proved to be a strong and efficient administrator; ensured accountability from her officials; tamped down on atrocities against Dalits and seen to it that the law and order situation in the state was not allowed to get out of hand.

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On the flip side, there have been serious corruption charges against her, which continue to haunt her even today. She has also been accused of squandering public funds on erecting statues of the BSP’s election symbol (elephant), of herself, her mentor Kanshi Ram and other scheduled caste leaders. But this has not dimmed her popularity among the Jatavs who are convinced that Mayawati is being hounded because she is a Dalit.

In fact, Mayawati’s caste is her chief calling card. And that’s where she scores over Mamata Banerjee. A woman and a Dalit to boot, the daughter of a post office employee was a school teacher before she ventured into the world of politics when she was adopted by Scheduled Caste politician Kanshi Ram as his protege, becoming a key member of the Bahujan Samaj Party founded by him. Since then, she has emerged as a leader in her own right, becoming an icon and inspiration for the large scheduled caste population who view her as a symbol of Dalit empowerment. When she overcame all social and economic hurdles and first took over as Uttar Pradesh chief minister in 1995, the appointment of the first Dalit woman to this post was hailed by late Prime Minister P V Narasimha Rao as a “miracle of democracy.”

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Unlike Mamata Banerjee, whose presence is confined to West Bengal, Mayawati has the advantage of tapping into the support of Dalits across the country though Uttar Pradesh remains her party’s main base. If a second miracle was to catapult her to the Prime Minister’s post, it will mark a huge victory for the country’s Dalits who have been oppressed by the upper castes for centuries. It will go down in Indian history as the country’s “Barack Obama” moment, finally giving the scheduled castes a share in political power.

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It is precisely for this reason that other opposition parties, including the Congress, will have no choice but to endorse Mayawati’s candidature if her name is proposed for the Prime Minister’s post. The country is ready for a Dalit Prime Minister. Mayawati’s elevation will come at a time when the country has been witnessing an increase in the incidence of violence against Scheduled Castes since the Modi government came to power in 2014. There is simmering anger among the Dalits which can be best assuaged if the BSP chief moves into Delhi’s South Block office of the Prime Minister.

Having proved her mettle as a chief minister, Mayawati should not find it difficult to adjust to her new role as the country’s premier. While she will be expected to bestow special favors on Dalits in terms of better funding for their education and improved job opportunities, Mayawati’s interests will be better served if she avoids playing the caste card in the appointment of her ministers and advisors. She will need all the expert advice because handling the country’s economy and foreign affairs is uncharted territory for her. A failure to do has the potential of inviting a backlash from the upper castes who will not be happy to see a Dalit woman occupying the country’s top post.

Though Mayawati, like Mamata Banerjee, is autocratic, mercurial and unpredictable, she also has a streak of pragmatism in her. For instance, the BSP chief did not hesitate to put aside her aversion to pre-poll alliances and entered into a partnership with the Samajwadi Party, her bitter political rival, once she realized that her party’s political survival was at stake after it was pushed to the margins by a rampaging Bharatiya Janata Party first in the last Lok Sabha election and then the 2017 assembly poll.  

Similarly, Mayawati resorted to deft “social engineering” in the run-up to the 2007 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh when she realized it would have to expand her support base as it would not be possible for her come to power with the sole support of Dalits. Mayawati then went on to do the impossible when she extended an olive branch to Brahmins, even though her party’s identity was based on destroying the Brahminical order. The BSP chief admitted Brahmins to the BSP ranks, fielded them in elections and promised them positions of power both in the party and the government. The strategy paid off as Mayawati went on to form the government in Uttar Pradesh then with a comfortable majority.

Despite Mayawati’s best efforts to be even-handed in her approach, it would be naïve to believe that her appointment to the country’s highest office will not be resented by the upper castes whose members have been wielding political power for decades. Don’t forget, Obama was succeeded by Donald Trump.

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