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World Bank Raises India's GDP Growth Projection

World Bank Maintains India’s 2023-24 GDP Growth At 6.3%

By LokMarg 3rd October 2023

The World Bank has retained India’s GDP growth forecast for the financial year 2023-24 at 6.3 per cent and noted that the country continued to show resilience against the backdrop of a challenging global environment.

The World Bank in its April report had cut India’s growth forecast for 2023-24 to 6.3 per cent from the earlier 6.6 per cent.

According to the World Bank’s latest India Development Update (IDU) released Tuesday, the international financial institution’s flagship half-yearly report on the Indian economy, observed that despite significant global challenges, India was one of the fastest-growing major economies in 2022-23 at 7.2 per cent.

“India’s growth rate was the second highest among G20 countries and almost twice the average for emerging market economies. This resilience was underpinned by robust domestic demand, strong public infrastructure investment and a strengthening financial sector,” World Bank said.

This fiscal, bank credit in India grew 15.8 per cent in the first quarter compared with 13.3 per cent in the first quarter of previous fiscal.

India’s service sector activity is expected to remain strong with growth of 7.4 per cent and investment growth is also projected to remain robust at 8.9 per cent.

“An adverse global environment will continue to pose challenges in the short-term, ” said Auguste Tano Kouame, World Bank’s Country Director in India.

“Tapping public spending that crowds in more private investments will create more favourable conditions for India to seize global opportunities in the future and thus achieve higher growth.”

The World Bank expects that global headwinds will continue to persist and intensify due to high global interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and sluggish global demand and as a result, global economic growth is also set to slow down over the medium term.

About adverse weather conditions in India that contributed to a spike in inflation in recent months, World Bank in the report said the price rise is expected to decrease gradually as food prices normalize and government measures increase the supply of key commodities.

“While the spike in headline inflation may temporarily constrain consumption, we project a moderation. Overall conditions will remain conducive for private investment,” said Dhruv Sharma, Senior Economist, at the World Bank, and lead author of the report.

“The volume of foreign direct investment is also likely to grow in India as rebalancing of the global value chain continues.”

Headline inflation in India rose to 7.8 per cent in July due to a surge in prices of food items like wheat and rice, to later fall to 6.8 per cent in August.

Further, the World Bank expects fiscal consolidation to continue in 2023-24 with the central government fiscal deficit projected to continue to decline from 6.4 per cent to 5.9 per cent of GDP.

Public debt is expected to stabilize at 83 per cent of GDP. On the external front, the current account deficit is expected to narrow to 1.4 per cent of GDP, and it will be adequately financed by foreign investment flows and supported by large foreign reserves. (ANI)

RBI Projects India’s GDP Growth At 6.4% For 2023-24

By LokMarg 8th February 2023

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected India’s real GDP growth to be at 6.4 per cent for the next financial year 2023-24.

“Broad-based credit growth, improving capacity utilisation, government’s thrust on capital spending and infrastructure should bolster investment activity,” RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said on Wednesday while announcing the monetary policy meeting outcome.
“According to our surveys, manufacturing, services and infrastructure sector firms are optimistic about the business outlook. On the other hand, protracted geopolitical tensions, tightening global financial conditions and slowing external demand may continue as downside risks to domestic output.”

The GDP projections for Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 2023-24 are estimated at 7.8 per cent, 6.2 per cent, 6.0 per cent, and 5.8 per cent, respectively, with risks, evenly balanced.

Meanwhile, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI decided to raise the repo rate, at which the RBI lends money to all commercial banks, by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent.

Four out of six members of MPC have decided to go ahead with this hike in the repo rate, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said.

The Shaktikanta Das-headed Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) started its three-day meeting on February 6 amid the rate hiking spree that started in May last year to check inflation.

India’s retail inflation during the month of December was at 5.72 per cent, versus 5.88 per cent in November and 6.77 per cent during October.

India’s retail inflation was above RBI’s six per cent target for three consecutive quarters and had managed to fall back to the RBI’s comfort zone in November 2022.

Since May last year, the RBI has increased the short-term lending rate (repo rate) by 250 basis points, including today’s, to contain inflation, driven mainly by external factors, especially global supply chain disruptions following the Russia-Ukraine war outbreak. (ANI)

World Bank Revises India’s GDP Growth Forecast To 6.9%

By LokMarg 6th December 2022

The World Bank has revised India’s 2022-23 GDP growth forecast upward to 6.9 percent from the earlier estimate of 6.5 percent, due to robust economic activities according to Dhruv Sharma, Senior Economist at the World Bank.

India’s real GDP growth is expected to be at 6.9 percent in FY22-23 compared to 8.7 percent in FY21-22, according to World Bank’s latest India Development Update.

“India is more resilient now than it was 10 years ago. All steps taken over the past 10 years are helping India navigate the global headwinds,” Sharma, senior economist at the World Bank said.

He added that India’s economy has rebounded fairly robustly following the contraction that occurred during the pandemic year. “This story of the rebound has been driven largely by robust domestic demand” said Sharma.

World Bank, in its October report, lowered India’s 2022-23 growth rate from its June forecast, by 1 percentage point to 6.5 percent. In the previous report, the international organisation had projected India’s growth rate to be at 7.5 percent for the period.

CPI-based retail inflation is showing signs of moderation, according to government data, however, still remains above the central bank’s upper tolerance level of 6 percent since January this year.

The inflation fell to 6.77 percent in October from 7.41 percent in the preceding month. Easing prices in food baskets were the reason for the decline.

“India’s economy has been remarkably resilient to the deteriorating external environment, and strong macroeconomic, fundamentals have placed it in good stead compared to other emerging market economies,” said Auguste Tano Kouame, World Bank’s Country Director in India. “However, continued vigilance is required as adverse global developments persist,” he said.

The report forecasts that the Indian economy will grow at a slightly lower rate at 6.6 percent in the 2023-24 fiscal year. A challenging external environment will affect India’s economic outlook through different channels. The report states that rapid monetary policy tightening in advanced economies has already resulted in large portfolio outflows and depreciation of the Indian Rupee while high global commodity prices have led to a widening of the current account deficit.

India’s external position has also improved considerably over the past decade. The current account deficit is adequately financed by improving foreign direct investment inflows and a solid cushion of foreign exchange reserves. (ANI)

Rupee Fared Better Among Emerging Mkt Currencies: World Bank

By LokMarg 6th December 2022

Indian Rupee has fared relatively well in 2022 in comparison to other emerging market peers, senior World Bank economist Dhruv Sharma said Tuesday after the global financial body revised India’s GDP forecast to 6.9 percent.

“The Rupee has depreciated just about 10 percent over the course of this year. That might sound like a large number, but relative to many other emerging market peers, India hasn’t fared that badly,” Sharma told a press briefing today after the launch of the World Bank’s India Development Update titled “Navigating the Storm”.

For the record, the rupee has come substantially off its all-time low. Currently, it is trading around 82.0 against the US Dollar as against a record low of 83 it breached in mid-October. Tightening monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve and central banks in other advanced economies triggered the depreciation of the Indian currency.

An increase in policy rates in the US and other advanced economies typically leads to a depreciation of the Rupee.

The US Federal Reserve has been raising key interest rates in its fight against red-hot inflation in the country. It raised the key policy rate by 75 basis points to over a decade high at 3.75-4.0 percent, the fourth consecutive hike of such magnitude.

Back home, the Reserve Bank of India had already hiked the key policy rate by 190 basis points since May to 5.9 percent to cool off domestic retail inflation that has stayed above the RBI’s upper tolerance limit for over three quarters now.

The World Bank has revised India’s 2022-23 GDP growth forecast upward to 6.9 percent from the earlier estimate of 6.5 percent, due to robust economic activities.

“India is more resilient now than it was 10 years ago. All steps taken over the past 10 years are helping India navigate the global headwinds,” said Sharma.

“Indian economy has rebounded fairly robustly following the contraction that occurred during the pandemic year. India performed quite well relative to other large emerging market economies, and this story of the rebound has been largely driven by robust domestic demand, and consumption investment,” the World Bank economist said.

On rising inflation in India, Sharma said it was driven by the supply side as well as external factors.

In October, retail inflation was 6.77 percent as against 7.41 percent the previous month. (ANI)