Gujarat Elections 2022 Archives - Page 2 of 2 - Lokmarg

Gujarat Voters Are Disgruntled But Have Little Choice

By LokMarg 17th November 2022

Dr Ajaz Shaikh, an anti-drugs activist in Gujarat, says it will be a Herculean task for the AAP to dislodge the well-entrenched electoral machinery of Hindutva politics in Gujarat

Gujarat was once embraced as the land of Mahatma Gandhi, and, his comrade, Sardar Patel. Now, it is labeled as a lab for Hindutva politics and as the home state of ‘Modi-Shah’ — the torch-bearers of the current Hindutva regime. With consistent victories of BJP in the state and two landslide victories at the Centre, the politics here — an experiment making a potent cocktail of Hindutva combined with crony capitalism and corporate-style state affairs — has become a successful election-winning model known as the ‘Gujarat Model’.

By controlling every aspect of social life of the majority and socio-political institutions with money and muscle, BJP is already far ahead in the race of ‘electoral democracy’; hence, the possibility of any other party winning should be considered over-ambitious. There is no level-playing field between BJP and other parties in terms of resources and institutional support which doesn’t make it difficult to predict that it may manage to secure the majority in the upcoming assembly elections.

The presence of AAP, mostly in urban areas, has generated anxiety among BJP workers. In the last polls, social movements (Patidar Andolan led by Hardik Patel, Una Andolan led by Jignesh Mewani and the OBC Andolan led by Alpesh Thakor) had put BJP’s victory in jeopardy as these movements had a strong impact on the youth in those communities. But two of these leaders have shifted to BJP and this has had a disappointing effect on the youth who have lost trust in people’s movements.

This time, a section of forward and dominant castes (Brahmins, Patidars, Maldharis etc,) seem to be shifting from BJP to AAP in Surat, Ahmedabad and Vadodara. Unemployment, drug addiction, trafficking, unregulated fees in private educational institutions, paper leaks, COVID-19 mismanagement, high electricity bills, poor condition of roads, the Morbi bridge collapse, etc, have had an impact on urban voters, as these all are predominantly urban issues. However, due to lack of organizational strength on the ground, it is difficult to say how much swing these issues can make in favour of AAP.

ALSO READ: ‘AAP Is Soft-Pedalling BJP Hate Politics In Gujarat’

One can sense an anti-incumbency factor and displeasure for the current crop of state ministers and BJP leaders among the masses, but the aura of the PM and his fancy agendas of inaugurating so-called development projects or making grand road shows and rallies, seems intact among the urban middle and upper classes. It suggests that these classes will manage to minimize the anger (since they dominate the urban political discourse) if certain ministers and leaders are replaced by new ones. BJP is aware of this reality and thereby have denied tickets to several senior leaders and ministers.

The problem of Congress is in its leaders and workers, both fighting amongst each other during elections. This time the challenge is multifold due to competition coming from AAP and Owaisi’s AIMIM. Several seats dominated by minority-voters, such as Dariyapur, Bapunagar and Jamalpur, are at high risk this time. Experts feel that Congress may lose two of those seats, and similar seats.

AAP might attract sections of urban, semi-urban and rural votes from both BJP and Congress with or without converting them into a few seats. The swing will harm Congress more than the BJP because of the earlier winning margins, where BJP is far ahead of Congress.

As an active youth in Gujarat, I often get stuck in a dilemma! Should I act for the betterment of a corrupt and incompetent State apparatus, or, should I act to change the corrupt and incompetent representatives of my own constituency? Should I act to reform our democracy from the top, or, from the bottom? This remains a question.

Five Things That Happened This Week (And what to make of them)

By Sanjoy Narayan 13th November 2022

Is the Biden administration in a gridlock?

When it comes to elections, pollsters often get it all wrong. Before the US midterm elections that were held earlier this month, pre-poll surveys had predicted that there would be a huge wave in favour of the Republicans both in the Senate(upper house) and the House of Representatives (the lower house), which together make up the bicameral legislative body of the US government. On the basis of those predictions political analysts even began forecasting scenarios where the Biden administration could fall into an existential crisis that could prove to be fatal.

As it happened, the outcome of the elections was not as dramatic. In the Senate, the Republicans and Democrats are now head-to-head each with 49 seats in the 100-seat chamber; and in the House of Reps, the Republicans have 211 seats to the Democrats’ 202 of the 435 seats, which means neither party has a majority. The US is largely a bipartisan democracy so unlike in other democracies such as in India or in several European countries, coalitions and electoral alliances are not meaningful options: the Republicans and the Democrats are always rivals.

But what exactly does it mean for President Joe Biden if the country’s lawmaking body is so evenly balanced? After the results started getting announced, Biden expressed a sigh of relief that the pro-Make America Great Again (read: Donald Trump and his supporters) were not bouncing back to stymie his government. But that could have been a response that was too hasty. Because America’s government could find itself in an unenviable gridlock.

Let’s look at the scenario that has emerged. The Republicans have a majority with a slender margin over the Democrats in the House, while in the Senate, neither of the two parties has a majority. What does this imply? For one, it makes President Biden’s task of making major new policy changes through law more difficult because his Democratic party has no clout in the House. Unless the Republicans are on board, it could be difficult for him to enact laws that have major implications. At a time when the shadow of recession looms large over the global economy; and Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to spiral, hurdles to lawmaking in the US could prove to be costly.

There could also be other implications for Biden. Some analysts believe in a sort of eye-for-an-eye move, if the Republicans have an edge in the House they could call for impeachment of Biden–in a kind of retaliation for the impeachments that the Democrats initiated against Trump during his term.

Meanwhile, Trump has said that he will make a big announcement later this month and that could mean he may throw his hat in the ring for the 2024 presidential elections. Trump continues to have considerable support among Republicans and many in the party, including some who have been elected in the midterms, think the 2020 elections results were not credible and that actually it was Trump who should have been declared the winner.

Divisiveness has sharpened in the US political scene and the midterms, even if they haven’t resulted in a clear verdict, have served to sharpen them. We can expect tensions to grow between the two parties and their supporters as 2024 approaches.

How many have died in the Russian attack against Ukraine?

As the war in Ukraine continues, and details of what is happening on the ground remains shrouded in ambiguity, a US military estimate suggests that around 100,000 Russian and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or injured in the nearly 10-month-old war. These figures, however, are a “western” estimate because both Moscow and Kyiv are extremely cagey about releasing official figures for casualties on their respective sides. Instead, ever since the war began last February, both sides have been contradicting each other–in terms of casualties, terrain recovered or captured, and other war-related statistics.

One slightly hopeful sign appeared last week. There were some reports that Ukraine was willing to consider negotiations with Russia for an end to the conflict. However, it is not known whether or how Russia would react to these overtures. Both countries would have to first agree that the 10-month-old war would perhaps not be resolved militarily but through diplomacy.

Speculation about the talks between the two sides grew after Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky withdrew his demand that Russian President VladimirPutin should step down before any negotiations could happen.

Despite the contrary propaganda, both sides have suffered in the war but whether Putin responds to Zelensky’s overtures for talks is something that remains uncertain.

In Gujarat, it’s an AAP shadow that looms

Bombastic declarations are a part of India’s electoral politics. Before Gujarat goes to the polls in less than a month from now, such declarations are flying fast, especially from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has 109 of the 182 seats in the state. Releasing the first list of the party’s candidates last week, BJP leader and Union minister Bhupendra Yadav said his party would break all records and win 150 seats in the assembly.

The facts could be quite different. In allocating seats, the BJP, which has ruled the state for practically 27 years (with a short break in between), has denied tickets to as many as 38 sitting MLAs, an indication that it fears that voters in many constituencies might be swayed by anti-incumbency sentiments. In its first list of candidates, it has included only 69 of the sitting party legislators as contenders for the coming elections.

This could be a sign that the party is fearing stiff competition from the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which won Punjab’s last elections and has been running Delhi for the past seven years.

Gujarat is a prestigious state for the BJP. Not only has it been ruling it for nearly three decades, it is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state and one that he has been chief minister for more than a dozen years. Losing Gujarat and that too to AAP would be humiliating for the party. For now, all eyes are on AAP, which is clearly one of the most prominent rivals to older and bigger parties at the national level such as the BJP and the Congress.

Musk on the warpath in Twitter

After buying Twitter, sacking its top executives and as many as 3,700 employees worldwide, billionaire Elon Musk is continuing to unleash controversial decisions at the popular social media messaging platform. Twitter recently announced a subscription model for anyone who wanted a verified account (which comes with a blue tick).

More recently, Musk scrapped the platform’s work-from-home policy and declared that all employees have to come to work and do a minimum work week of 40 hours. Coming on the heels of a mass sacking, this has created further uncertainty in the company.

Meanwhile, even as Musk reached out to major advertisers in a video chat last week to assure them of his sound business plans, many big spenders have abandoned or put on hold their ad spends on the platform. These include General Motors, General Mills, and United Airlines. Many of these companies are apprehensive about the direction a Musk-owned Twitter will go with regard to hate speech and divisive content. Many of them are waiting and watching how things pan out before resuming spending on the platform.

Facebook employees face the sack

Elsewhere on the social media scene, things are not very different. Faced with declining revenues and increasing losses, Facebook has been on a firing spree. Last week, on a single day, Facebook fired 11,000 employees comprising 13% of the company’s workforce.

Many of those fired were Indians, including some who had just joined the company. In one instance, a woman employee on maternity leave till February received an email that said her job had been terminated.

Facebook’s bossMark Zuckerberg has taken responsibility for the decision to fire employees and for the company’s revenue collapse.

Meanwhile, he is betting big on Metaverse, a virtual world in which people live, work, shop and interact with others all from the comfort of their homes. Facebook’s parent company, Meta, is working to launch this. But although Zuckerberg has invested nearly $36 billion thus far on Metaverse till now, there is little to show for it yet in results.

‘AAP Has Created Panic in Rank And File of Gujarat BJP’

By LokMarg 17th October 2022

Basant Rawat, a senior and independent journalist in Ahmedabad, explains what makes Aam Aadmi Party a serious challenger to the well-entrenched BJP in Gujarat

The prospect of AAP in the assembly elections in Gujarat is bright. Amidst all-around despondency, AAP has come to symbolise hope in this ‘hopeless state’ — also known as the Hindutva laboratory of India. The BJP has ruled the state for nearly three decades now. However, it is no longer invincible, or, unstoppable, thanks to the steady rise of AAP. It seems to be a kind of ‘new liberation movement’ – a liberal, democratic movement, symbolising common people’s aspirations, amounting to a peaceful uprising against the hegemony of the BJP.

Even if the BJP manages to emerge as the single largest party, it might not be able to form the government with the distinct possibility of a hung assembly looming large. In the home state of Narendra Modi, AAP has created panic in the rank-and-file of a jittery BJP. Armed with its unique killer instinct, AAP is positioning itself as a winner. Until recently, both Congress and BJP dismissed it as a non-existent force. No more. The reason: both parties seem to have realised its aggressive and lethal power.

The way AAP conducts its poll campaign — it is a sheer delight. It has thrown its rival’s political calculations out of gear, emerging as the new centre of political gravity, occupying the mind space of every discerning person, dislodging Modi from that position, who, until recently, continued to mesmerise gullible Gujarati supporters – largely, not known for rational, critical thinking.

ALSO READ: ‘AAP Is Trying To Beat BJP At Its Own Game’

Now, Modi has a challenger in his home turf in Arvind Kejriwal who is asking tough questions, grilling him on his brand of politics every time he visits Gujarat. Visibly, BJP appears to be on the back-foot. This has never happened in the past so early in the campaign.

As for the theory that AAP is working as a ‘B-Team’ of BJP, and will cut into Congress votes, I would say, yes and no. This ‘B-Team’ description is unfounded and meaningless. The ‘BJP moles’ in AAP have already switched sides and have rejoined the BJP. Everybody in Gujarat knows who they were and where they are today.

AAP is a new political creature, still unfolding. The RSS-BJP might have tacitly nurtured it, penetrated it, and backed it in the Anna Hazare movement, but, now, it has become a Frankenstein for them — hence the BJP is scared.

What is disconcerting for the BJP is its ‘populist brand of politics’ – it has become such a tricky situation for the BJP that it does not know how to deal with it! AAP has converted the campaign into ‘poor versus rich’ — Modi representing the rich and AAP as the underdog.

AAP seems an amalgam of progressive, liberal ideology – a ‘welfarist’ party inclined towards the poor and middle class — an inclusive party. For some reason, in Gujarat, everybody can relate to it and identify with its core belief, which is different from that of Congress and BJP. Undoubtedly, AAP will damage both Congress and BJP. In the eventuality of a hung assembly, it seems that AAP will not align with BJP. It may go with the Congress if such a situation arises.

Free electricity is AAP’s magical poll plank which has worked. The unique style of its campaign and the offer of ‘revdi’ (freebies), have created ripples. It is not for nothing that the BJP has pushed the panic button. Small-scale entrepreneurs/traders etc, deeply unhappy with the new tax regime (GST), reeling under the terrible impact of demonetisation – seem to have made up their minds, to go with AAP, and get rid of what Kejriwal calls the ‘raid raj’. Small-scale entrepreneurs have been thronging Kejriwal’s ‘town hall’ meetings. AAP is being seen by the poor, contractual workers and employees of the Gujarat government, as the only sign of hope; it seems they want to try Kejriwal this time around. This means it has already created a committed vote bank. Surely, the BJP has every reason to be worried.

It is true, that despite the solid work they have done in education, health, electricity and water, etc, in Delhi, AAP also speaks the BJP language, seeking to usurp its constituency. It’s regressive position on the abrogation of Article 370 in Kashmir and the military clampdown, its dubious position on the peaceful Shaheen Bagh protests, its overt inaction on the sinister communal violence unleashed during the Delhi riots, its silence on the imprisonment of political prisoners, including excellent scholars from JNU, Jamia Millia Islamia, AMU, etc, have cast a shadow over its ‘welfarist ideology’. However, I still believe that it is not an abjectly communal party. Call it sheer pragmatism and opportunism — but AAP thinks it can defeat BJP on its ‘own’ Hindutva pitch. The AAP leadership in Gujarat is young, educated, and bubbling with energy. They know how to outplay BJP in its own game. It is the only party which can speak its language and defeat it.

As told to Amit Sengupta