Lok Sabha Elections 2024 Archives - Lokmarg

Elections 2024: How Indian Muslims Would Vote

By Asad Mirza 25th April 2024

The election festival in India has started yet again and with the first phase of the mammoth exercise starting off on 19 April, the political pundits are wondering once again, how the Indian Muslims are going to vote.

If we analyse the election results of the last two general elections, then we realise that at the national level, in the past two national elections Indian Muslims at many places voted strategically, yet a party with just 35% of the vote emerged victorious.

However, it should not dishearten the Indian Muslims, they should take courage from the fact that they are standing along with the 65% of the Indian population, which stands for India’s secular credentials and values. Alas, this reality is not seen by the so-called Muslim parties, which often emerge as vote spoilers or dividers, by attracting a minuscule number of Muslims and giving an edge to anti-Muslim forces.

Data available at the Election Commission of India’s website from the Lok Sabha polls in 2019, shows that the ruling BJP won narrowly on 40 seats in the country.

Of its 303 tally, it won by less than 50,000 votes in as many 40 seats in 2019. This is usually considered a reversible margin.

This means that if the margins had been reversed, it would have taken its tally down to 263. Of these 40 narrow victories, 11 were versus the Congress party, and six against the Bahujan Samaj Party, Samajwadi Party and Biju Janata Dal. Four were versus the Trinamool Congress, two versus the Rashtriya Lok Dal, and one each against the All India United Democratic Front, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Janata Dal (Secular) and an Independent.

Moreover, fourteen of these narrow seat victories were in the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh. Machlishahar in U.P. has the dubious distinction of electing a BJP candidate by just 181 votes in the last elections. Overall, of its 303 seats, BJP won by less than one lakh votes on 77 seats.

In view of these facts, firstly, it should be the strategy of the secular political parties and particularly of the Muslim leaders to focus on these crucial seats and turn the tide against the anti-Muslim party. The irony is that even the parties, which were once relied upon as saviours of the Muslims like the Samajwadi and BSP, have also emerged as Muslims haters. In view of this the Muslims should vote strategically and vote for a lesser danger than the bigger danger.

Secondly, if we find our so-called leaders and parties lacking in these efforts, then the community’s intellectuals and experts, who are robustly active on various social media platforms, should persuade the Muslim voters to cast their vote positively on the D-day.

The mention of the importance of social media in today’s India, brings our attention to a recent report complied by Al Jazeera on the medium’s importance and how it is being used to spread mis- or dis-information and increasing Islamophobia among the electorate.

India has over 460 million YouTube users, making it the platform’s largest market, with four out of five Internet users in India consuming its content. Increasingly, more and more Indians are getting their news from YouTube, now a days.

The report says that most often these YouTube channels peddle mis- or dis-information in the garb of news. Some of these YouTube news channels increasingly offer a smattering of dis-information and Islamophobia, often cheerleading the ruling dispensation, while targeting its critics and opposition leaders. However, what makes these channels unique is that they claim to be ‘news’ channels, ostensibly claiming to present fact-based reportage.

These channels, though lesser known than mainstream news channels, have millions of viewers, giving them an outsized role in how the world’s largest democracy is consuming news as India prepares for its national election. Most of these channels have followers running into millions, with over billion views, a staggering and fearsome figure indeed.

With such a wide reach, concerns abound on how such ‘news’ outlets might shape perceptions and opinions, especially during the election season.

Studies have shown that Indians place greater trust in news they view on YouTube and WhatsApp, over news delivered by mainstream media outlets. Already, the World Economic Forum’s 2024 Global Risk Report has concluded that the most severe risk India faces is the fallout from the spread of false information.

The Al Jazeera report further quotes a study done by Narrative Research Lab, a New Delhi-based data lab that uses artificial intelligence (AI) to track print media and social media content, NRL analysed the content across six channels – NMF, Rajdharma, Headlines India, Shining India, Capital TV and O News Hindi – and found that on all these channels, coverage of India’s opposition parties was muted and its leaders were rendered almost invisible. In contrast, PM Modi and the BJP loomed large, their coverage almost always glowing.

The lab analysed 2,747 videos published by these channels between December 22, 2023, and March 22, 2024. In their findings, the lab found that across all the channels, some of the most frequently used words in the titles were “Modi”, “BJP” and “Yogi”, while mentions of opposition parties and leaders were used scarcely.

A “sentiment analysis” by the lab found that while “Modi” was used commonly across videos that had both negative and positive sentiments, references to India’s opposition figures like Gandhi mostly emerged in negative phrases.

Routinely, these channels amplify Islamophobic sentiments and use anti-Muslim tropes. The Narrative Research Lab analysis also found that there was a spike in the number of videos these channels produced on events like the day the contentious Citizenship Amendment Act rules were announced on March 11.

Another issue, which haunts the journalists in this election season, is the extra vigil and precaution, which they have to exercise while covering the elections. Based on their past experiences, the journalist in a survey carried out by the US-based, CPJ – The Committee to Protect Journalists, which promotes press freedom worldwide, and defends the right of journalists to report the news safely and without fear of reprisal, said they were concerned about political violence, criminalisation of journalism, attacks by other journalists and online censorship, while covering the elections.

Overall, these elections are crucial not just in face of the daunting task carried by journalists as listed above, but are also important for the minority community to vote strategically, unitedly, unwaveringly and certainly by ensuring their presence at the polling booths on the D-day, to ensure the safety of minorities in the country, besides safeguarding the country’s constitutional and secular values,

Otherwise the foreboding messages, which currently abound on WhatsApp university may turn into a frightening reality.

(The writer is a Delhi-based senior political and international affairs commentator)

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BJP Will Spring A Surprise With Record Seats, Especially From South

By LokMarg 25th April 2024

Rakesh Tripathi, spokesperson of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), claims that the party will easily achieve its target of 400-plus seats with astonishing results from southern states. His Views:

In the last elections (2019), the BJP in Uttar Pradesh won 64 seats (as against 71 in 2014) despite the Samajwadi Party and BSP coming together. This time, we are not only going to achieve better results than 2014, thanks to our additional efforts and Modi-Yogi magic. Likewise, we are not only going to sustain our strength in the states where we have a dominant presence, like Rajasthan, Haryana, MP, Uttarakhand etc., we shall improve in states like West Bengal, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana etc.

Thanks to the tedious efforts of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and our motto of delivering what we promise, our results in the southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala will surprise our detractors. In this context, I would like to point out the commitment and the ‘thirst’ with which, for example, our Tamil Nadu state president K Annamalai is working 24×7. Besides being young and vibrant with the sole aim to serve the people and the country, he has been in politics for less than four years and he is already a youth icon, who has rattled the Dravidian ecosystem and established BJP as the primary anti-DMK force in the South.

Similarly, the chief minister of Assam, Himanta Biswa Sharma, is working effortlessly in the northeast along with others and BJP will definitely improve its figures in that region too.

The BJP delivers what it promises. Take for example, the abrogation of Article 370, the Ram Temple, triple talaq, NRC, etc. Whatever we promised in 2014 and 2019, most have been delivered and the others are in the pipeline. This time, our manifesto, which has been prepared after immense review, discussions and ideas (from grassroots level workers), has promises that we can deliver and we will deliver. Like our PM says, our vision is not 2029 but we have 2047 on our target when India will be a developed and a self-reliant country.

ALSO READ: Rahul Gandhi Is At The Last Chance Saloon

The promises made by other opposition parties in their manifesto are not more than a bunch of lies and claims which border on the weird. Take for example Rahul Gandhi’s promise of equal distribution of wealth among Indians. His `Khata khat, Khata Khat, Khata Khat idhar se udhar (from the bank accounts of the rich to the poor) is similar to his `Idhar se aloo, udhar se sona’ claim. Likewise, his wiser RJD counterpart, Tejashwi Yadav is promising Old Pension Scheme, Rs 1 lakh annually to women of poor households, discontinuing Agniveer, MSP on more crops, and other tall claims.

The Opposition is not able to find suitable candidates to contest elections against us in many states. It is evident from the ever-changing candidates and seats where no one is willing to contest. Take for example the revelations of ex-Congressman Prof Gaurav Vallabh who is now with BJP. He says that all Congressmen are advised/directed to target wealth creators and Sanatan Dharma.

A majority of Congress leaders and workers are not willing to contest elections and a stark example is that out of the 100 Congress Working Committee members, only three are contesting elections. Take for instance the seats of Rae Bareli and Amethi in Uttar Pradesh. Once the two seats were Congress pocket borough; today the party is still undecided who to field from the two constituencies.

As told to Rajat Rai

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Even As A First-Time Voter, I Can See NDA Has Put India on World Map

By LokMarg 24th April 2024

Aditya Prakash Goel, a BCom Hons student from Sardhana, says he is excited about casting his vote for the first time and he would want NDA to return to power. His views:

This is my first experience as a voter and I am happy to be a part of the democratic exercise in this Lok Sabha elections. It feels like I am a citizen of a representative state and my vote can make a positive difference.

I believe the nation has not just changed under the current NDA rule but a new chapter of remarkable growth and fast paced development is also being written. India has showcased itself as a trend setter in the last few years. The nation has moved from the politics of hooliganism, corruption and appeasement to the politics of development, growth, unity and nationalism.

This remarkable journey has strengthened democracy in its real sense by empowering the marginalised sections of the society – from the unprivileged to underprivileged, the women and the youth. It also has been a journey of changing the Indian thought process from nothing is impossible in this country to everything is possible if the government and the people have the will and commitment to bring about a change.

The NDA rule has emphasised the motto of Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas Sabka Vishwas.

Various initiatives have been taken up by the government in the last few years that have contributed to the development of the country showcasing it globally. Some of the initiatives that show the country has progressed and stepped towards change are:

The power of JAM, Jan Dhan Yojna, Aadhar and Mobile. This trinity aims at maximizing the value of every rupee spent, empower the poor, increase technology penetration among the masses, and implement direct subsidy transfers to the poor. The government intends to use these three modes of identification to revolutionize financial inclusion in India.

The digital India initiative aims at transforming the country into a digitally empowered society and knowledge economy, bridging the gap between the urban and the rural areas. The government has truly made tremendous efforts in the making of digital India making transactions cashless.

ALSO READ: ‘India Has Progressed But Suppression of Dissent Worrisome’

Make in India initiative has given a rapid boost to manufacturing. It facilitates investment, fosters innovations, enhances skill development and builds the best manufacturing infrastructures. It is an effort to boost the country’s entrepreneurial energy.

The skill India mission has been initiated to create convergence across sectors and states in terms of skill training activities and promoting handwork and cultural background of the country.

Sansad Adarsh Gram Yojana is a rural development programme focusing on development in villages which includes social and cultural development and motivating people towards social mobilization of the village community.

Then there is Namami Gange to arrest the pollution of the Ganga, Pradhanmantri Ujjwala Yojana providing smoke free kitchens by providing LPG connectivity to the beneficiaries, 35 crore Jandhan accounts have been opened as part of Pradhanmantri Jandhan Yojana, nearly 18,000 villages have been electrified and schemes like PM Kisan Samman Nidhi to boost agriculture.

The government has sought to create infrastructure in terms of roads and railways through highways and trains and schemes like UDAN (Ude Desh ka Aam Nagrik) have sought to boost connectivity.

During the pandemic, the country emerged as one of the largest vaccine producing hub on the global scenario. In the last few years India has emerged as a significant economic and geo political power on the world map.

As told to Deepa Gupta

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Use of Political Violence in Bengal Elections is Disheartening

By LokMarg 23rd April 2024

Ramit Chattopadhyay, a Geography Honours student in St. Xavier’s College, Burdwan, says the continuing degradation of our independent institutions is a legitimate concern. His views:

Mainstream politics in West Bengal is inherently secular. With a demographic character as varied as West Bengal’s, there is no other way to win the hearts of Bengalis other than by adhering to secularism. The state has been an age-old hub of liberalism and progressive ideas, and the contemporary era is no different. Therefore, undoubtedly, my firm belief is that the polity in the state will stick to a secular ethos in the 2024 parliamentary elections.

As a student, and an avid follower and observer of politics, I am a little disappointed by the repeated use of violence as a political tool in Bengal’s elections. The very fact that hundreds of companies of central security forces have been deputed in the state for the 2024 general elections does not portray a good image about the state’s political scenario. However, I am hopeful about Bengal’s future. With proper and democratic participation of all stakeholders, politics here can once again regain an aura of fairness and harmony.

ALSO READ: ‘India has Progressed but Suppression of Dissent Worries Me’

Indeed, I don’t feel that 2024 is a battle between a secular democratic, and a quasi-dictatorial front. In India, it’s very difficult to ignore any section of the electorate. No government can cater exclusively to the needs of any one select community, or interest group, while ignoring the others. As for dictatorial tendencies, I feel that the continuing degradation of the country’s independent institutions is a legitimate concern. There is a need to have proper checks and balances that prevents any government from meddling into the affairs of independent institutions.

**Ramit feels the seven-phase spreadout in Bengal election is justified**

About the seven-phase parliamentary election in Bengal, to many it may seem like an unnecessarily long process. However, given the massive size of the Bengali electorate, and past reputation of violence in elections here, the seven-phase polling is quite justified, in order to properly manage a free and fair election. That being said, necessary steps should also be taken by the election conducting authorities, the Election Commission especially, to have Heat Action Plans (HAPs), so that voters do not have to suffer the brunt of India’s unforgiving summer heat.

As told to Amit Sengupta

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Rahul Gandhi Is At The Last Chance Saloon And It’s Not Looking Good

By Sanjoy Narayan 21st April 2024

The Economist, the British publication that is often described as a weekly newspaper published in a printed magazine format, appears to have a soft spot for Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the Indian National Congress and the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty that runs that political party. A few days before the first phase of India’s gargantuan parliamentary elections was held, the publication joined Gandhi on his campaign trail and ran a piece that tacitly implied that Gandhi, 53, who holds no official position in his party, had got his mojo back.

The piece did list the main challenges that the Congress faces: the lack of an ideological alternative to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s dominant and seemingly unstoppable Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) whose amalgam of Hindutva and economic development has proved to be a successful electoral recipe; the lack of organisational discipline in the Congress; and Gandhi’s own lack of experience–he has never run a state nor a central ministry.

Yet the Economist’s piece on Gandhi was hopeful–a contrarian view from what many others think of him–and concluded that if the Congress had to reverse its decline, Gandhi would have to step up or step aside.

Gandhi actually has had more chances than any political leader is usually lucky to get. He has led the party’s defeat in two parliamentary elections, in 2014 and 2019; he has seen the number of seats that his party along with its allies have won plummet to just 52 out of 543; and has seen it lose several state elections–the Congress now rules in just three out of India’s 28 states.

Yet, it is a silly season that is underway in Indian politics–six more phases of elections will be held and no exit polls will be allowed till the last vote is cast on June 1–and all manner of speculation, some of it nonsensical, abounds. A few days before the first phase of elections was held, the prominent Congress leader, Jairam Ramesh, 70, commenting on a quote of Prime Minister Modi, posted on X: “A pathological liar who plumbs new depths of lies every day. Just two more months, though, of this man as PM.”

The Congress and its supporters have been circulating various prophecies, including a now-deleted opinion poll that suggests the Congress-led big-tent alliance of 41 opposition pirates would get more seats than the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. On their part, Modi and the NDA have made no bones of their expectation that they would win 400 seats or more in the ongoing elections, which, if it happens, would mean a massive 74% majority.

The BJP’s confidence shows. When the first phase of elections ended last Friday evening, Modi, who with 97.3 million followers is the 7th most popular on X (former US President Barack Obama is the only politician who has more, while another ex-Prez Donald Trump has less), posted: “Getting EXCELLENT feedback from today’s voting. It’s clear that people across India are voting for NDA in record numbers.”

Everyone, including the media in India, political commentators, and international media publications (who are more critical of Modi and his regime than their Indian counterparts), has by and large concluded that a third term for Modi as Prime Minister and a huge mandate for his party and its allies is all but assured and that the only matter of interest is how many seats they get when the results are declared on June 4–more than the 346 that they now have or less.

Gandhi And His Team’s Third Test

Let us assume that the prevalent view that Modi will be reelected as Prime Minister for the third time comes true. What about the Congress? After his party’s dismal showing in 2014 and 2019, this year’s election is a crucial test for Gandhi. The Congress could end up with either more seats than the paltry 52 that it currently has in Parliament, or less. What would those scenarios mean for the scion of a party that was once the dominant political organisation in India and one that has its roots in the first nationalist movement to emerge in the British Empire. The Congress was formed in 1885, which makes it 139 years old. For 48 years, or nearly half a century after Independence in 1947, the party has helmed India’s government and for many years it also ruled in most of India’s states.

But its decline has been swift and shocking. In 2014, the Modi-led NDA first dealt it a blow (the Congress that year won just 44 seats); in 2019, it was a repeat. If 2014 was a wake-up call, 2019, was a plaintive cry for survival.

Yet, on the face of it, the party’s leadership did little. Yes, Gandhi himself sort of took the blame for the electoral debacle, resigning as party president in 2019, and refusing to remain in any official position in the party. His mother, Sonia Gandhi, widow of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, continued as interim president of the party before a veteran leader, Mallikarjun Kharge, who is 81, was appointed as president in 2022.

Publicly Congress leaders would like to describe Kharge’s appointment as a demonstration of non-dynastic meritocracy in the Congress but, in private, they scoff as loudly as Congress’s rivals. For everyone knows that it is still one family, the Nehru-Gandhis, which continues to call the shots in the party. In other words, it is Gandhi, his mother who is 77 and in indifferent health, and his sister, Priyanka, 52, who is a general secretary of the party, who control everything in the party. Every other leader in the party has to be subservient to the family. Or else they have to leave.

Many have. In significant droves. Since 2014, several promising Congress leaders, some of them young, enthusiastic and credited with the potential to turnaround the fortunes of the party have ditched it. Their reasons for leaving are simple: the way the party is controlled by the family. Many of them have joined the BJP, which has become a kind of equal-opportunity recruiter of political talent from across the spectrum of opposition parties. If an opposition politician has the heft to get votes, the BJP’s doors are open for him or her.

The situation is so grave for Congress that besides some old-timers, many of whom are at the terminal stages of their political careers, there are few who remain that can revive the party. When the results of the ongoing elections come out in June, for Gandhi and his family it could be the last chance to do something about an organisation that is sliding in a spectacular political avalanche. Or, would it be too late?

Stepping Aside Could Be the Only Option

A third electoral debacle would be severely humiliating for Gandhi but catastrophic for his party. He is the main challenger to Modi and seen as the real leader of his party–whether or not he has an official post in Congress is irrelevant.

If, in the first scenario, the Congress ends up with, say, 50-100 seats this time, what should Gandhi do? A charitable suggestion is that he should step aside from all party work and, although it depends on his personal choice, probably from politics altogether. Indians looking at Gandhi’s track record would have had enough of him and even those who support his party would probably not want him around anymore. If he or his party would like him to continue even after another electoral drubbing, he would be a parodistic personality inviting rebuke rather than respect. Not an image that anyone would cherish for himself.

There is, of course, a second scenario. Let’s assume hypothetically that the opposition’s Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) flies in the face of prevailing public perception and wins the elections (caveat: I said “hypothetically”!).

INDIA is made up of 41 parties but is chaired by the Congress president Kharge. Besides the Congress, the constituent parties in the alliance include smaller national parties, communist parties, and several regional parties from different states, including those representing minorities such as Muslims, discriminated castes, and tribals.

It is a sort of hodge-podge of parties from across the ideological spectrum that lies outside the bounds of the BJP’s Hindutva plus development plank. Formed less than a year before the ongoing elections began, already some of the original member parties have left, notably Bihar’s Janata Dal (United) led by the original convenor of the alliance, Nitish Kumar, who left to ally with the BJP.

Nevertheless, let’s assume the INDIA gets to form a government on the strength of a hypothetically higher number of seats than the NDA that it wins. Each of its constituents will wield varying degrees of power on account of the number of seats it wins and brings to the kitty. Some of them are strong in their home states and regions and can dictate terms in the formation of the government. How many of them are likely to agree to a Prime Minister from the Congress party? And even if they do, how many would vote in favour of Gandhi?

As I said, it is the silly season now, a time when speculation abounds. So let me leave you with those two questions to speculate about, purely hypothetically.

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Modi Should Make Equality & Not Growth His Main Target

By Sanjoy Narayan 7th April 2024

A crucial and key aspect of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) election campaign is the rallies that Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses across India. Modi, 73, is a powerful orator and he has a hectic itinerary, criss-crossing the country to address public rallies, sometimes as many as three or even four in a single day. The rallies are usually huge, with hundreds of thousands of people turning up to hear him deliver his speeches, which resonate regardless of one’s political views. In India’s current political scenario there isn’t anybody else whose public speeches can match up to Modi’s.

Last week, in Cooch Behar a northern district of West Bengal, which will go to the polls on April 19 in the first phase of India’s 44-day parliamentary elections, Modi, in his customary style of exhorting public responses (and sometimes referring to himself in the third person), asked the crowd four rhetorical questions: Should we or should we not make India the world’s third largest economic power? For that do we need a strong government or not? Does Modi provide a strong government or not? Will Modi provide a strong government in future or not?

The target of making India the world’s third largest economy (measured by GDP) is not only attainable but it may even be low-hanging fruit–not very difficult to pick. Economists and organisations like the World Economic Forum (WEF) believe India’s economy is on track to become the world’s third largest, possibly by the end of this decade.

India is currently the world’s fifth largest economy with a GDP of around $3.7 trillion. The US and China hold the top two spots, followed by Japan and Germany.

India’s economic growth rate is expected to be around 6.7% on average over the next seven years, which is higher than most other major economies. This growth is fueled by factors like a large young population, increasing digital adoption, government reforms, growth in domestic consumption, and investment in infrastructure.

Several financial institutions believe India can achieve its target of becoming the third biggest economy within the next 3-7 years by maintaining a growth rate of around 7-8% This would require surpassing the growth rates of Germany and Japan, and staying competitive with China’s projected growth.

According to S&P, the American credit rating agency, India could achieve this goal by 2030, or, just after the end of term of the next Parliament. Others, including Modi, believe it could happen even earlier.

Shocking Inequality is Widening

Becoming the third-largest economic power would undoubtedly be a moment of pride for all Indians. Yet, the more important challenge–and one that no one, including Modi, likes talking about–is the deplorable level of economic inequality in India. While India’s policymakers and politicians have professed to make growth inclusive and ensure that the benefits of economic progress reach all segments of society, it has not happened.

In his speech at Cooch Behar last week, Modi claimed that in the past 10 years, his government had pulled 250 million Indians out of poverty. It is true that during his regime, which began in 2014, India has witnessed a significant decline in multidimensional poverty from 29.17% in 2013-14 to 11.28% in 2022-23. This represents a reduction of 17.89 percentage points. Multidimensional poverty indices break down poverty levels in different areas of a country and among various sub-groups of people, and consider factors besides only income–like education, health, living standards, and other essential aspects of well-being.

Yet, as poverty declines, income inequality in India has widened. According to Oxfam India’s “Survival of the Richest: The India Supplement”, the top 1% in India owned more than 40.5% of total wealth in 2021, while the bottom 50% of the population (700 million people) has around 3% of total wealth. From the beginning of the Covid pandemic till November 2022, billionaires in India have seen their wealth surge by 121%. That means by a staggering Rs 3608 crore per day in real terms (or Rs 2.5 crore a minute!).

Take a few moments to digest those numbers and then consider this: The country still has the world’s highest number of poor at 228.9 million. On the flipside of that is the fact that, according to Forbes, the number of billionaires in India rose from 169 last year to 200 this year, making it the world’s third largest concentration of the ultra-rich.

Additionally, the richest 10% in India collectively own 72.5% of the country’s wealth, further emphasising how acute inequality is in India and the fact that although India’s policymakers can feel proud about making it the world’s fastest growing economy, that pride is superficial. Modi’s avowed target of making India the third largest global economy means little really to the masses of people who gather to hear him speak at his election rallies.

Huge Challenge of Joblessness

According to Oxfam’s index, India ranks 147th out of 157 countries in terms of commitment to reducing inequality. India’s Gini index, which measures income distribution inequality, in 2021 was 35.7. The Gini index measures the extent to which the distribution of income or consumption among individuals or households within an economy deviates from a perfectly equal distribution. A Gini index of 0 represents perfect equality, while an index of 100 implies perfect inequality.

In a way, India is trapped in the cycle of inequality. Economic disparities hinder India’s poorest from being socially mobile and to move up the ladder. Economic inequality intersects with caste, gender, and background disparities, thus making it even more difficult to break out of that cycle.

Concentration of wealth in the hands of a few can undermine social justice and cohesion and further perpetuate inequality.

A classic textbook method of redistributing wealth is to tax incomes progressively. Yet, in India despite the concentration of wealth among a few, the number of people who pay taxes is abysmally low. Only 20.9 million people paid income tax in 2021-22. In the same year, there were 943.5 million adults among the population. Unless the income tax net is widened, meaningful redistribution of wealth will be impossible to achieve.

The biggest challenge that policymakers face is youth unemployment. According to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) released this year, youth unemployment (20-34 age group) has been on the rise. In the October-December 2023 quarter, 44.49% of those in the age group of 20-24 were unemployed, while for the 25-29 age-group it was 14.33%, and for the 30-34 age group it was 2.49%. Breakups of that data show that the problem is particularly acute in rural India where youth unemployment is at record levels. Remember too that the number of Indians that are 15-24 is estimated at 250 million, more than half the population of the European Union.

So when Prime Minister Modi exhorts crowds at his election rallies with slogans about making India one of the world’s most powerful economies, we might need to stop and wonder what power he is talking about.

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Badaun People Happy With Swift Police Action In Double Murder Case

By LokMarg 3rd April 2024

Anshul Jain, a native of Badaun and a socio-political expert, says the timely action in the recent double murder case has strengthened the trust of electorate in UP Police and Yogi Govt. His views:

The entire Badaun district was in shock when two local barbers, Sajid and Javed, in the Baba colony area killed their neighbour’s two minor sons Ayush, and Ahaan on March 19. Though the police failed to give any concrete reason behind the heinous crime, all it has to say is that the accused Sajid, who was killed in an encounter, was mentally unstable.

Though the police nabbed Sajid and killed him in an encounter while he was trying to escape from police custody, his partner in crime, Javed was later arrested from Bareilly. The entire episode is shrouded in mystery as the assailant Javed has not been revealed much about the motive of the crime. A frustrated Vinod also tried to immolate himself in front of the SSP office on March 24 but the police had nothing much to add to its investigation.

Nevertheless, the issue has not acquired any political colours and by and large, Badaun voters feel that the action of police personnel was swift and the crime situation in the district as well in the state has been satisfactory. Meanwhile, higher officials of Uttar Pradesh police have denied a communal angle to the crime.

ALSO READ: ‘Yogi Govt Real Test Lies In Reigning In Mafia’

Talking about the effect of the incident on the elections, it is hardly going to hamper the prospects of BJP that has its MP (Sanghmitra Maurya) representing the Lok Sabha seat. In 2019, Maurya secured nearly 47 per cent votes and won by a margin of about 20,000 votes defeating his nearest rival Dharmendra Yadav of SP. This time, the BJP has declared Durvijay Singh Shakya as its candidate and his chances are even better this time thanks to the image of Adityanath Yogi.

Badaun has about 20 lakh voters with 3.5 lakh Muslim, 3.5 lakh Yadavs, 4 lakh general category voters and about 2.5 lakh Shakya (OBC) voters. The main fight is between the BJP and the SP and if BSP files a Muslim candidate from the seat, it is going to dent SP and benefit BJP.

The Samajwadi Party has used the Badaun incident to attack the Yogi government for the deteriorating law and order situation in the state. However, according to locals of Badaun, who are shocked after the incident and are standing with the family, the chief minister has got his 2^nd historic term in the state over his brilliant performance on the law and order front. Even in the current horrific incident, the mood of electorate is one of laudatory for the role of state police and state administration.

As told to Rajat Rai

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LS Polls: Rajnath To Lead BJP’s Election Manifesto Committee

By LokMarg 30th March 2024

The Bharatiya Janata Party on Saturday announced the Election Manifesto Committee for the Lok Sabha elections 2024.

BJP president JP Nadda announced the 27-member committee which will be headed by defence minister and former BJP chief Rajnath Singh.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Union Minister Piyush Goyal will be convenor and co-convenors, respectively.

Arjun Munda, Bhupender Yadav, Arjun Ram Meghwal, Kiren Rijiju, Ashwini Vaishnaw, Dharmendra Pradhan, and Bhupender Patel are included as members in the committee.

Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma, Chhattisgarh CM Vishnu Deo Sai and Madhya Pradesh CM Mohan Yadav are also included in the list.

Along with them, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundhara Raje, Smriti Irani, Jual Oram, Ravishankar Prasad, Sushil Modi, Keshav Prasad Maurya, Rajeev Chandrashekhar, Vinod Tawde, Radha Mohan Das Agarwal, Manjinder Singh Sirsa, OP Dhankar, Anil Antony and Tariq Mansoor are also there.

Meanwhile, Bharatiya Janata Party on Friday announced the candidates for the by-election to be held in the Gandey Assembly seat of Jharkhand and Bagidora Assembly seat in Rajasthan.

The party has fielded Dilip Kumar Verma from the Gandey Assembly, while Subhash Tamboliya has been given a ticket from the Bagidora Assembly in Rajasthan.

The bypoll will be held at Bagidora Assemby in Rajasthan on April 26, while the Gandey Assembly will undergo a bypoll on May 20.

Bypolls on 26 Assembly seats will also be held along with the Lok Sabha polls.

Meanwhile, Lok Sabha polls will be held in seven phases beginning April 19.

Nearly 96.8 crore people are eligible to cast their votes in the upcoming polls at over 12 lakh polling stations.

The election for 543 Lok Sabha seats will be held in seven phases starting April 19.

The counting of votes will take place on June 4.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) won 282 seats, while the Indian National Congress (INC) managed to get only 44 seats.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) won 303 seats, while the Indian National Congress (INC) managed to get only 52 seats. (ANI)

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What You Could Expect in Five More Years of Modi

By Sanjoy Narayan 24th March 2024

What You Could Expect in Five More Years of Modi

In mid-March, at this year’s annual conclave organised by the India Today group, in his introductory speech before inviting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to speak, the group’s chairman Aroon Purie remarked that Modi was not just campaigning for the soon to begin 2024 parliamentary elections but he also seemed to have his sights on the next one to be held in 2029. When Modi rose to speak, he was quick to grab that as a cue. Playfully rebuking Purie, he said, “You stopped with 2029? I am aiming for 2047!”

That repartee may have been in jest. In 2047, Modi, if he is still around, will be 97–an age at which it is not usual to still be active in politics. Yet, 2047, in Modi’s scheme of things, is a significant year. It will be the 100th anniversary of India’s Independence. It is also

the year for which Modi has envisioned Viksit Bharat @2047, a plan that is all about making India an advanced and developed country by that year.

Most observers, political analysts, and journalists, including the dwindling few among that third group in India who could still be considered detractors, are quite clear that it is almost a certainty that Modi will get a third term as Prime Minister, and that his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies will again win an overwhelming majority of the 543 seats for which the elections will be held in seven phases, beginning April 19. Modi himself is confident that his alliance, the National Democratic Alliance, will get more than 400 seats, beating its 2019 tally of 353.

The support and popularity that Modi enjoys is quite unprecedented in Indian politics and, as a consequence, his party and its allies are tipped as the clear winners in this year’s elections. Yet when it comes to the number of seats, the math may not be simple. Modi and his party are not very popular in the southern Indian states, which have largely been a bastion of regional parties and the opposition Congress Party. The south (four states and one union territory) has 130 of the 543 parliamentary seats, and in the 2019 elections, while it swept the northern states, the NDA won only 30 of them. How Modi and his alliance fares in the south this time would determine whether their final tally touches or crosses 400.

The Impact of Modi 3.0

That is a minor math conundrum. The larger issue is what a third term for Modi would mean for India and its people. At the India Today Conclave mentioned earlier, Modi ended his speech with his own predictions. In the next five years, he said, India’s infrastructure would reach new heights with significant advancements. For example, he said, Indian Railways would bring transformative changes to transportation. India, which is now the world’s biggest importer of defence equipment, would emerge as an exporter with a much stronger presence in the global defence market. And, in the space sector, after already having launched a successful moon mission, India would set new records in space endeavours.

Economic Growth. On the economic front, Modi has already set some tangible targets to achieve in his third term. Such as becoming the third largest economy in the world after the US and China. India with a GDP estimated at $3.7 trillion is growing the fastest among the world’s big economies and in size it is now the fifth largest economy in the world. To become the third, it would have to overtake Germany (at number 4) and Japan (number 3). With its fast-paced growth that would not seem difficult to achieve.

Reducing Poverty. According to the National Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), India has already made big strides. The MPI captures overlapping deprivations in health, education, and living standards by complementing income-based poverty measurements by directly measuring and comparing deprivations. In the period, 2019-21, 14.96% of India’s population was multi-dimensionally poor, compared to 24.85% in 2015-16. This means that 135 million individuals have escaped multidimensional poverty during the 5-year period. The several schemes implemented by the Modi regime (such as direct transfers of welfare and subsidies; credit assurance to vendors; and support for tribal groups and artisans) will likely lead to further reduction in poverty during a third Modi term.

Other areas where progress could continue includes women’s empowerment. Although violence against women, closing gender gaps, and promoting economic opportunities are ongoing priorities, women have benefited from schemes to increase financial inclusion, subsidies on items such as cooking gas, emphasis on girl child education, and women’s involvement in local government. Gender equality can be expected to be an important objective in Modi’s third term.

An increased emphasis on national security and strengthening India’s security infrastructure, both internal as well as external, will also be a top priority area for the government. ‘

The Worrisome Issues

A third term would also pose other challenges for the Modi regime. One topic of discussion has been the potential downgrading of democracy ratings in India and the independence and autonomy of its institutions such as the judiciary. In 2021, international indices such as the US-based non-profit, Freedom House, downgraded India’s status from a free democracy to a “partially free democracy”. Sweden’s V-Dem Institute, which publishes datasets that describe qualities of different governments, classified India as an “electoral autocracy”. The Economist Intelligence Unit described India as a “flawed democracy” pointing to enacted laws such as the Citizenship Amendment Act, the National Registration of Citizens, and the revocation of Kashmir’s special status.

The past 10 years has seen a rise in majoritarianism in Indian society and increased communal tension, particularly between Muslims who account for 14.2% of the population and Hindus who make up 80%. How minorities will be treated in a third term of the BJP-led government could be an area of concern.

Also, despite the optimism about the Indian economy and its high growth rate, issues like inflation, unemployment, and rural inequality remain pressing challenges that need to be addressed. Youth unemployment because of mismatch of education with employment opportunities are areas that the new government or a Modi 3.0 regime will have to focus on in the next five years. India is still a young country–more than 50% of its population is below the age of 25 and more than 65% below the age of 35. While this is often referred to as a demographic dividend, in the absence of opportunities for India’s young, it could backfire horribly.

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Mining Electoral Bonds to Curry Favours?

By Kunal Bose 23rd March 2024

India is exceptionally rich in mineral resources, be it thermal coal, iron ore, bauxite or limestone. It also has fairly large endowments of zinc ore, manganese ore and chromite. Helped by resource bounties and growing local demand for energy and metals, India is counted among the world’s major producers of thermal electricity, which, however, meets with increasing frowning by environment activists, and steel, aluminium, zinc and cement. The governments at the centre and in states have over the years introduced many mining related reforms, the most important being the dispensing with the power to make discretionary allotment of reserves in favour of their auctioning. This is aiding transparency in resource allocation.

The authorities had been under growing pressure to introduce reforms as the mining sector’s production performance was not in line with resources lying underneath the earth. Moreover, much to their embarrassment, the extensive wrongdoings in the mining sector, resulting from the nexus between miners and a section of bureaucracy was increasingly coming to light. First in Karnataka and then in Goa, the Supreme Court cancelled iron ore mining leases on grounds of illegalities some years ago.

Such strong action, which had a telling effect on the country’s production of steelmaking ingredient and its supply to local steel mills and for exports must have instilled some fear and discipline among miners. The Goa government was in the firing line for its act of omission. In an indictment of the local administration, the Court said while its direction was to grant fresh licences in accordance with the mining laws, the state government’s renewal of mining leases was found to be “unduly hasty, without taking all relevant material into consideration and, therefore, not in the interest of mineral development.” The Court found violations of environmental norms in the process of ore extraction and its transportation in Goa in particular quite distressful.

After all the reforms, between making a successful bid for lease ownership of a reserve and opening of the mine is still a tortuous process where government agencies at the Centre and in states have a decisive say. Because of the rigmarole, including time-consuming environment and forest clearances, a mine opening in India can take up to eight years against three years in Australia, the world’s largest producer and supplier to the global market of a number of minerals. What will be admitted straightaway is the continuing need for government oversight once a mine is opened because mines in India are found to be prone to breaking rules with impunity and cutting corners endangering the lives of workers and causing harm to the environment. But for such oversight to be effective demands that officials posted in far corners where extraction happens will honestly record all mining related misdoings to be followed up by corrective and also exemplary actions by people at higher bureaucratic echelons.

As sector observer members of civic society will say, if this were the case then the “murky affairs” relating to Karnataka and Goa mining would not have happened. Monitoring of mines operations by using satellites and drones might have curbed what is visible from air. What will, however, always stay under radar are the dubious deals in the sector happening all the time because of the unholy understanding between miners, politicians and government officials. Avarices of miners apart, politicians and bureaucrats will not miss the opportunity to line their pockets by way of withholding required permissions till they get paid and overlooking many acts of omission by mining groups, again for a consideration.

All these are among the reasons why the mining sector has remained bereft of foreign direct investment (FDI). This is despite New Delhi’s liberalised FDI policy allowing 100 per cent foreign equity holding in the sector on automatic route for all non-fuel and non-atomic minerals. Diamond and precious stones also remain beyond the scope of FDI. Finding the overall environment not to their liking, years ago British-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto (the world’s second largest) and Norwegian bauxite and aluminium producer Norsk Hydro cried off from India. While Rio Tinto had big iron ore mining plans in the then Orissa (since renamed Odisha), the Norwegian group had nursed the ambition to develop a bauxite mine and an alumina refinery in the downstream in the same state in partnership with Tata Sons and Canadian Alcan, part of Rio Tinto since 2007.

What could have been a richly rewarding business for the three iconic houses is now owned by Kumar Mangalam Birla’s flagship Hindalco Industries. Called Utkal Alumina International, a 100 per cent subsidiary of Hindalco, it has a highly cost effective 2.1 million tonne alumina refinery at Rayagada in Odisha and a 8 million tonne bauxite mine at Baphlimali also in the same state.

ALSO READ: Why Business Houses Betting Big on Orissa?

What has underwritten the success of Birla when a combination of bigger entities, unable to take the project forward, sold their entire stakes to the former in phases? The cryptic answer will be the Birla group’s capacity, which several other Indian entities too have, to manage the environment to its advantage. The expression ‘manage the environment’ stands for the skill to find resolution of any thorny issues by taking care of the right people. Ask any media person writing on mining, she/he will confirm the opaqueness of the sector. However big private sector mining companies may be, they will have nothing to do with the media.

Their reluctance to share basic industry related information, which has nothing to do with their own working is galling. They are not listed on stock exchanges. Therefore, they have no obligation to publish quarterly and annual results and annual reports. PSUs in the country’s mining universe such as Coal India, NMDC and Moil are, on the other hand, listed entities and the media has easy access to them. In a government undertaking all income and expenses are to be shown in books and their officials cannot find a way out of a difficult situation by paying bribes.

And also unlike private sector companies, mining, metal and power PSUs were not buyers of electoral bonds, an instrument made available to business houses to support electioneering efforts of political parties of their choice. In the list of top 20 electoral bond purchasers are found Vedanta, a major producer of oil, iron ore, zinc ore and aluminium, Essel Mining, an unlisted money spinner for Aditya Birla group and Haldia Energy, a coal-based power producer in RP-Sanjiv Goenka group. Vedanta bought electoral bonds of Rs376 crore, Haldia Energy Rs377 crore and Essel Rs225 crore.

At this writing, one does not know how the mining and metal groups went about in giving the bonds to political parties. Incidentally, the five companies belonging to Jindals but managed separately by family members bought bonds of Rs195 crore. Jindals have a big manufacturing and mining profile in Odisha and they have a hugely Odisha based ambitious growth plans. It’s a given that BJP being an all-India political party will be the largest recipient of electoral bonds purchased by companies and individuals. What at the same time can be said with certainty is that mining, power and steel groups made large donations to Odisha’s Biju Janata Dal and West Bengal’s Trinamool Congress for obvious considerations. Nothing to do with politics or ideology.

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