Mining Electoral Bonds to Curry Favours

Mining Electoral Bonds to Curry Favours?

India is exceptionally rich in mineral resources, be it thermal coal, iron ore, bauxite or limestone. It also has fairly large endowments of zinc ore, manganese ore and chromite. Helped by resource bounties and growing local demand for energy and metals, India is counted among the world’s major producers of thermal electricity, which, however, meets with increasing frowning by environment activists, and steel, aluminium, zinc and cement. The governments at the centre and in states have over the years introduced many mining related reforms, the most important being the dispensing with the power to make discretionary allotment of reserves in favour of their auctioning. This is aiding transparency in resource allocation.

The authorities had been under growing pressure to introduce reforms as the mining sector’s production performance was not in line with resources lying underneath the earth. Moreover, much to their embarrassment, the extensive wrongdoings in the mining sector, resulting from the nexus between miners and a section of bureaucracy was increasingly coming to light. First in Karnataka and then in Goa, the Supreme Court cancelled iron ore mining leases on grounds of illegalities some years ago.

Such strong action, which had a telling effect on the country’s production of steelmaking ingredient and its supply to local steel mills and for exports must have instilled some fear and discipline among miners. The Goa government was in the firing line for its act of omission. In an indictment of the local administration, the Court said while its direction was to grant fresh licences in accordance with the mining laws, the state government’s renewal of mining leases was found to be “unduly hasty, without taking all relevant material into consideration and, therefore, not in the interest of mineral development.” The Court found violations of environmental norms in the process of ore extraction and its transportation in Goa in particular quite distressful.

After all the reforms, between making a successful bid for lease ownership of a reserve and opening of the mine is still a tortuous process where government agencies at the Centre and in states have a decisive say. Because of the rigmarole, including time-consuming environment and forest clearances, a mine opening in India can take up to eight years against three years in Australia, the world’s largest producer and supplier to the global market of a number of minerals. What will be admitted straightaway is the continuing need for government oversight once a mine is opened because mines in India are found to be prone to breaking rules with impunity and cutting corners endangering the lives of workers and causing harm to the environment. But for such oversight to be effective demands that officials posted in far corners where extraction happens will honestly record all mining related misdoings to be followed up by corrective and also exemplary actions by people at higher bureaucratic echelons.

As sector observer members of civic society will say, if this were the case then the “murky affairs” relating to Karnataka and Goa mining would not have happened. Monitoring of mines operations by using satellites and drones might have curbed what is visible from air. What will, however, always stay under radar are the dubious deals in the sector happening all the time because of the unholy understanding between miners, politicians and government officials. Avarices of miners apart, politicians and bureaucrats will not miss the opportunity to line their pockets by way of withholding required permissions till they get paid and overlooking many acts of omission by mining groups, again for a consideration.  

All these are among the reasons why the mining sector has remained bereft of foreign direct investment (FDI). This is despite New Delhi’s liberalised FDI policy allowing 100 per cent foreign equity holding in the sector on automatic route for all non-fuel and non-atomic minerals. Diamond and precious stones also remain beyond the scope of FDI. Finding the overall environment not to their liking, years ago British-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto (the world’s second largest) and Norwegian bauxite and aluminium producer Norsk Hydro cried off from India. While Rio Tinto had big iron ore mining plans in the then Orissa (since renamed Odisha), the Norwegian group had nursed the ambition to develop a bauxite mine and an alumina refinery in the downstream in the same state in partnership with Tata Sons and Canadian Alcan, part of Rio Tinto since 2007.

What could have been a richly rewarding business for the three iconic houses is now owned by Kumar Mangalam Birla’s flagship Hindalco Industries. Called Utkal Alumina International, a 100 per cent subsidiary of Hindalco, it has a highly cost effective 2.1 million tonne alumina refinery at Rayagada in Odisha and a 8 million tonne bauxite mine at Baphlimali also in the same state.

ALSO READ: Why Business Houses Betting Big on Orissa?

What has underwritten the success of Birla when a combination of bigger entities, unable to take the project forward, sold their entire stakes to the former in phases? The cryptic answer will be the Birla group’s capacity, which several other Indian entities too have, to manage the environment to its advantage. The expression ‘manage the environment’ stands for the skill to find resolution of any thorny issues by taking care of the right people. Ask any media person writing on mining, she/he will confirm the opaqueness of the sector. However big private sector mining companies may be, they will have nothing to do with the media.

Their reluctance to share basic industry related information, which has nothing to do with their own working is galling. They are not listed on stock exchanges. Therefore, they have no obligation to publish quarterly and annual results and annual reports. PSUs in the country’s mining universe such as Coal India, NMDC and Moil are, on the other hand, listed entities and the media has easy access to them. In a government undertaking all income and expenses are to be shown in books and their officials cannot find a way out of a difficult situation by paying bribes.

And also unlike private sector companies, mining, metal and power PSUs were not buyers of electoral bonds, an instrument made available to business houses to support electioneering efforts of political parties of their choice. In the list of top 20 electoral bond purchasers are found Vedanta, a major producer of oil, iron ore, zinc ore and aluminium, Essel Mining, an unlisted money spinner for Aditya Birla group and Haldia Energy, a coal-based power producer in RP-Sanjiv Goenka group. Vedanta bought electoral bonds of Rs376 crore, Haldia Energy Rs377 crore and Essel Rs225 crore.

At this writing, one does not know how the mining and metal groups went about in giving the bonds to political parties. Incidentally, the five companies belonging to Jindals but managed separately by family members bought bonds of Rs195 crore. Jindals have a big manufacturing and mining profile in Odisha and they have a hugely Odisha based ambitious growth plans. It’s a given that BJP being an all-India political party will be the largest recipient of electoral bonds purchased by companies and individuals. What at the same time can be said with certainty is that mining, power and steel groups made large donations to Odisha’s Biju Janata Dal and West Bengal’s Trinamool Congress for obvious considerations. Nothing to do with politics or ideology.

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This Is My First Chance To Cast Vote

‘This Is My First Chance To Cast Vote, And I Feel Proud About It’

Akhshay Kumar Singh, 21, an undergraduate student in Lucknow, says being part of the government formation in an electoral democracy is a great feeling. His Views:

Till now, I was merely a spectator in the electoral exercise whenever elections fever hit the country. With my freshly minted Election Card in pocket, I feel a sense of pride that this year I will be an active participant in the festival of democracy this year when the nations goes to choose members of the 18th Lok Sabha.

I have avid interest in current affairs, and therefore I have been observing things around me for the past several years. I see there is a visible change in everything that governs us of late – be it infrastructure, education, health and overall, the stature of India in the world. Though I am young enough to make a physical comparison of what India was about 10 to 15 years ago, being an extensive internet buff, I have been extensively comparing the present situation of India (in every aspect) with the past and feel pride at the changes being brought about.

I must admit that I did not witness any previous governments other than the current regime but seeing the working and commitment of this government, I feel this is what how the state leadership of any country should be like – inclusive and dedicated for the cause of its people and its polity.

However, sometimes I also feel pity for some politicians and political parties giving absurd logics and making baseless allegations of some issues pertaining to the development or the society of the country. Take for example the Ram Temple – some are fiercely labeling it as a religious (Hindu) ploy of the present government to please a particular section of the voters and going to even senseless allegations saying that it was a program of the BJP and the RSS. The matter is as simple as that – Once a temple existed, it was brought down and a Masjid was built and again a Temple was built after the court’s order. Why such hues and cries in a country where Sanatan is deep rooted and was the original art of living when we came to existence?

ALSO READ: ‘I’m a First-Time Voter, But Have No Faith In Electoral Politics’

Being one of the first and the youngest voters of my democracy, I am very much excited and have also literally started a campaign, along with some of my friends, to spread awareness. Identify and educate new voters about the process of being enrolled in the electoral list and getting a voter ID made without hassle.

I also feel pity when I see the percentage of voter turnout in the subsequent elections that take part in our country like festivals. Be it any part of the country, it always remains between 40 to 60 percent making a mockery of the immense pains taken by the authorities and the amount of resources (including money) involved in conducting the elections.

More surprising is the difference in the pattern between the urban and rural voters where the latter wins (in terms of turnout) with big margins. If we (urban voters) claim to be more educated and more socially responsible, where does our commitment go at the time of voting? What I suggest is that there should be a system like some western and developed countries where you need to give a concrete reason in writing for not coming out to vote and face a punishment for making a false alibi.

As told to Rajat Rai

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Scams & Spectacles – Chronology Samajhiye

Scams & Spectacles – Aap Chronology Samajhiye!

Things are really not working as per the pre-determined script the two-man leadership of the BJP had master-minded, along with the RSS, on how to ride the jolly good ride once again to absolute victory in the coming 2024 Lok Sabha polls. From ‘Modi hai to mumkin hain’, the slogan in 2019, to ‘Abki baar, 400 paar’, seems to have got stuck in a filthy quagmire – and they can’t even blame the opposition for it. Indeed, it only reminds a shocked nation, especially seasoned journalists who understand the ‘system’, that, even then, an absolute majority seemed ‘namumkin’ for Modi – that is, until Pulwama happened!

The tragic, sudden and shocking death of 40 CRPF soldiers travelling in a convoy on February 14, 2019, on the Srinagar-Jammu highway, in a village near Pulwama, is still simmering deep inside the conscience and consciousness of India. The tears in the eyes of the family members have still not dried.

The attack happened moments after 3 pm in the afternoon. Anyway, there are too many uncanny and unresolved questions about the attack and how such a huge quantity of explosives was being carried in a vehicle by a lone man in an extremely high security and volatile area, and that too in what is perceived to be a ‘conflict zone’. Those questions can only be resolved after a ‘fair and free’ enquiry, which is simply inconceivable in the current circumstances.

The revelations by former Kashmir governor, Satyapal Malik, however, has been terribly disturbing, and his version has been quoted widely in the media. In all probability, his version might be correct, though a proper enquiry alone can only substantiate the final sequence of events, and the instructions allegedly given to him by the PM himself after hearing the news.

Well, during the attack, or before it, the PM was in yet another ‘PR mode’, shooting for an adventure series called ‘Man vs Wild’, dressed in safari jungle jacket, at the Jim Corbett National Park.

Since then, much turbulent waters have flowed down the bridge. Come to think of it, the BJP, riding high on its well-oiled, cash-rich electoral machine, backed by an organized RSS cadre with deep pockets, and, largely, a stooge media, is in a worse situation now then what it was in — before the Pulwama tragedy. The Ram Mandir ‘Pran Pratishtha’ hyperbole, as a deliberate Hindutva card, with blanket media coverage day in, day out, seems to have vanished into the blue, and even the saffron flags atop homes and vehicles have all but disappeared. The brazen push to make the secular Indian State turn into a quasi-Hindutva apparatus, with the PM leading the rituals in Ayodhya, apart from temple-hopping across the country, seems to have found a sudden road-block.

Indeed, he was last seen in the sea-waters somewhere on the coast of Gujarat, scuba-diving perhaps, praying to the mythical watery city of Krishna, wearing, as trolls claimed, a space-helmet – “so that his face is visible, while praying, underwater”. That is, yet another glorious adventure-spectacle, mixed with a heavy dose of religion, plus, a spectacular photo shoot.

The only other leader known to do such grand, narcissistic ‘spectacles’, often oozing with bare-bodied machismo, is Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, perhaps on steroids; he has predictably won a landslide for the umpteenth time recently, with no opposition party pitched against him in a one-man show, while his most formidable opponent and famous dissenter, Alexei Navalny, just about 47, seems to have been murdered in cold-blood, in a cold prison, somewhere in the icy wilderness far away from Moscow.

Thankfully, India still seems to be a quasi-democracy, with a firm belief in the secular Constitution drafted by Dr BR Ambedkar, culturally pluralist in its deepest essence, still clutching onto the sacred doctrines of freedom and equality in its heart and soul. The second Bharat Jodo Yatra by Rahul Gandhi has been a stupendous success, the India bloc has stitched-up a strategic alliance, the South, Bengal and Punjab are refusing to accept the BJP or Hindutva, and the Supreme Court has finally delivered a great, historic order of justice in an overwhelming atmosphere where injustice seems to be the order of the day. Inevitably, this paradigm shift has plunged the fake messiah and his fanatic followers into a quagmire of doom and despair.

The electoral bonds scam has exposed an organized, unimaginably gigantic, shadowy and sinister operation, putting the most efficient and ruthless mafiosi into shame, in what appears to be a multi-million, multi-mega scam, unprecedented in the history of any living democracy in the world. ED raids are thereby directly linked to patronage to sleazy enterprises, lucrative deals and huge donations to the BJP, whereby, sometimes, companies with a pitiable financial corpus are seen to be donating massive sums running into many crores to the party, using these bonds. This has created the speculation that some of them might be camouflaged as ‘proxies’ for big industrialists; or, some big business empires might simply be wanting a quid-pro-quo in terms of yet another multi-million cash-cow project, including, perhaps, stakes in a public sector company, like airports, mining and ports.

Hence, now, the slogan, ‘Na khaunga, na khane doonga’, seems as hollow, and bereft of ethical values, as most slogans coined by the PM.

ALSO READ: The Tunnel To Himalayan Disaster

Remember a man named Wakeel Hasan. He is one of the rat-miners who staked their lives and squeezed inside the rat-hole, the death-trap of the Silkyara tunnel, in November last year and saved the lives of the 41 trapped workers inside for 16 days. This, after the best of national and foreign technology interventions and disaster management applications failed to succeed. It became 24×7 prime-time news.

After the rescue operations, the PM had a ‘live’ chat show with the rat-miners. Later, reportedly, they were not even given alternative jobs or a financial package as reward – and thereby were left to their fate to rot as rat-miners for the rest of the lives. To add salt to their simmering wounds, Wakeel Hasan’s humble home was demolished by the DDA recently in Delhi. Surely, the meaning of gratitude is different for different people!

Besides, in a dark irony, Navayuga Engineering Company Private Limited — the company that built the Silkyara Tunnel in Uttarkashi which collapsed on 12 November, 2023 — had reportedly bought bonds worth Rs 55 crore. Reports claim that they had bought 30 bonds worth Rs 1 crore each on April 18, 2019, shortly before the Lok Sabha Elections in 2019. In mid-2020, the Andhra-based firm was granted the controversial Rishikesh-Karnaprayag rail link project, apart from other projects.

Controversial, because, like the ‘Char Dham’ project of the PM, which has led to massive cutting down of trees, huge soil erosion and the fear of multiple-landslides in the fragile Himalayan ecology of Uttarakhand, the rail-link project was opposed by environmentalists as another recipe for an impending ecological disaster, after the watery sinking of Joshimath. Besides, reportedly, on October 26, 2018, income tax officials had swooped down on its offices, accusing it of violating income tax rules and laundering money.

As the joke goes on and on in social media: ‘Aap chronology samjhiye – please’! Surely, as another cliché does the rounds: ‘Modiji hain, to sab mumkin hain’!

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Election Commission Lok Sabha

Lok Sabha Elections 2024: EC To Announce Poll Dates Tomorrow

The Election Commission of India will announce the poll dates for the Lok Sabha elections 2024 on Saturday a spokesperson of the poll body said on Friday. The EC will also announce the Assembly election dates for some states.

The dates for the polls will be announced at a press conference scheduled for Saturday at 3 PM.

In a message on X, a spokesperson of the ECI said, “Press Conference by Election Commission to announce the schedule for #GeneralElections2024 & some State Assemblies will be held at 3 pm tomorrow ie Saturday, 16th March. It will be live streamed on social media platforms of the ECI”.

The 2019 Lok Sabha elections were held in seven phases from April 11 to May 19.

Earlier on Wednesady, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar said that the poll body will decide on holding Lok Sabha Elections and Assembly Elections together or separately in Jammu and Kashmir after reviewing the security situation.

The long wait for Jammu and Kashmir seems to have come to an end as the Election Commission of India (ECI) is considering holding simultaneous assembly and Lok Sabha polls.

Political parties have already begun announcing their candidates for the general elections. BJP has so far released two lists of candidates. Congress has also released two lists of candidates for the polls.

Meanwhile, the Election Commission on March 14 uploaded data on electoral bonds on its website as received from SBI. Future Gaming and Hotel Services and Megha Engineering and Infrastructures Ltd were among the top donors to political parties.

Various petitions were filed before the top court challenging amendments made to different statutes through the Finance Act 2017 and Finance Act 2016 on the ground that they have opened doors to unlimited, unchecked funding of political parties. (ANI)

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SP-Cong Alliance Will Cost BJP Dear

SP-Cong Alliance Will Cost BJP Over 30 Lok Sabha Seats In UP

Rajeev Rai, national secretary and spokesperson of the Samajwadi Party, says their party’s alliance with the Congress will shake BJP to its roots in Uttar Pradesh. His views:

The recent and recurring failure of the Yogi Adityanath government to even conduct fair examinations for police recruitments in Uttar Pradesh has exposed the hollowness of their claims of good governance. If we go with the statistics, over three crore families have been affected with this paper leak forcing them to rethink about the competence of the BJP government. The ongoing wide-scale protests are an indication that Yogi government has lost its appeal among the state electorate. This will ultimately reflect in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections undoubtedly.

And then comes a final nail in their taboot (coffin) as the sealing of seat-sharing agreement between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. The coming together of SP and Congress has consolidated the minority community that will vote for us strengthening our prospects and increasing our numbers substantially.

In addition, the inconsistent switch of loyalties by leaders like Om Prakash Rajbhar (SBSP) has angered the OBC community and they, along with a majority of voters of other communities, will be opting for candidates with higher moralities, self-respect and dignity. In my opinion, the BJP tally will be reduced by a minimum of 30 seats in the ensuing electoral battle in the state

The biggest election issue today is unemployment among the state youth. And the Uttar Pradesh janata is asking the BJP leaders that if they cannot properly conduct the competitive exams for police recruitment how are they going to solve the larger issue of creating jobs?

ALSO READ: Narendra Modi’s Southern Discomfort

This was not the first exam (ever since the BJP formed the government in UP in 2017) in which question papers were leaked. About nine competitive exams conducted in the past six years have been cancelled or suspended due to paper leak or corruption charges, forcing the youths to wait endlessly for gainful employment. They constantly live in the fear of getting over-age by the time the examinations are rescheduled/held cleanly.

Not only in UP, the BJP should wait for a shocker in neighboring states like Bihar too where the untiring efforts and the commitment of Tejashwi Yadav (RLD) will demolish the tally of the BJP. In addition, the constant inflation, pan-India unemployment are constantly adding to the discomfort of the people and the saffron party is heading to a substantial loss of over 20 seats in MP and over 70 seats in Maharashtra, West Bengal and Karnataka.

In addition, the results of the stronghold states of BJP that include Rajasthan, Gujarat, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh will also be a shocker and shattering the tall claims of 370 seats for the party and 400-plus seats for the NDA. You cannot win elections by simply painting rosy pictures and selling fake dreams continuously – the voter is now aware and is now fed up with the false promises and claims being made and sold continuously for the past ten years and the country stands united for a positive change.

As told to Rajat Rai 

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BJP is India’s Most Powerful Political Magnet

Under Modi, BJP is Now India’s Most Powerful Political Magnet

It’s a phenomenon that has become so common that it is almost a part of the official protocol. When an incumbent administration has to announce a budget barely months before it seeks reelection, that budget invariably becomes a crowd pleasing one – full of sops, tax rebates, and other carrots that are proffered as enticement to voters. Last week, however, when the finance minister announced India’s interim budget, it was not especially laden with those customary come hither propositions. That’s because Prime Minister Narendra and his regime that is completing its second term and will be seeking a third at the elections, scheduled for April and May this year, expect that they will be a shoo-in for the voters.

In fact, to many it could seem that for Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the elections will be a one-horse race. At the national level, opposition to the ruling regime is in shambles; the multi-party Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), which was formed last July, has all but disintegrated; and the BJP’s strength and prominence has grown without any signs of abatement.

The BJP has become so dominant that Modi’s government didn’t have to throw in sops or lollipops for voters in last week’s budget. Yes, it had the routine nods and doffs of the hat aimed at the poorest sections of the population: it has focussed on the rural sector and agriculture by boosting several schemes. Yet, it has also cut food subsidies, a delicate area, and not lowered income tax rates. In fact, it will lean on higher tax collections for the coming financial year.

In an election year, an interim budget lets an incumbent government spend until the new administration takes over. If the ruling regime is reelected it can seek approval for a full budget.

That eventuality looks like a certainty. Few doubt that the Modi regime can be ousted in the coming elections. For one, there seems to be no alternative to challenge it. Potential challengers have mainly self-destructed or become weakened. Some former challengers have crossed over to join the BJP or ally with it. Most recently, Nitish Kumar, Bihar’s longest lasting chief minister (last week he was sworn in for a record ninth time) jumped ship to join the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which is led by the BJP. Ironically, Kumar was the main architect of the opposition alliance, I.N.D.I.A., formed with the sole purpose of ousting the Modi regime. Amen!

Kumar isn’t the only renegade in contemporary Indian politics to clamber aboard the BJP’s bandwagon. Politicians of all stripes from various opposition parties have jumped onto it. It may serve us well to remember that the word “bandwagon” was coined by Phineas T. Barnum, also known as P T Barnum, a famous 19th century American circus owner and showman. He created the term to describe the wagons that transported a circus band. The circus metaphor does fit Indian politics rather well.

Among those who have joined the BJP have been many of its erstwhile critics and sworn opponents. But then politics, at least in India, is marked by promiscuity. Some Congressmen who ditched their party to join the BJP have also been rewarded (or was it a quid pro quo?) by ministerial portfolios in Modi’s Cabinet. The current civil aviation minister, Jyotiraditya Scindia, 53, was in the Congress party for nearly 20 years before joining the BJP in 2020; and the minister for micro, small and medium enterprises, Narayan Rane, 71, also left the Congress to join the BJP in 2019. Rane is not a shy party-hopper. Before joining the Congress he was with the Shiv Sena. 

There are many other political leaders, who were originally opposed to the BJP, but now members of that party. Jitin Prasad, 50, a longtime member of the Congress party who has also served as minister in the Congress regime, is now part of the BJP and a minister in the Uttar Pradesh government led by BJP’s Yogi Adityanath. In 2017, the veteran Congress leader from Karnataka, S.M. Krishna, once a foreign minister, joined the BJP. Other prominent politicians who have joined the BJP include the Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, 55, who left the Congress in 2014; Mukul Roy, 69, who left the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal to join the BJP in 2017. In some states such as Uttar Pradesh, there have been televised events organised where opposition politicians have formally joined the BJP ceremoniously.

What makes the BJP a political lodestone in India? A simple answer to that is power. Politics, purists would say, is a pursuit of a calling rather than a career. In a democracy such as in India, the copybook definition of a politician’s ambition would be the urge to serve the people. However, in reality it is the power that politics can bestow on an individual and burnish his importance and status that drives many politicians. 

The BJP won the elections and formed the government at the Centre in 2014 and has during the past 10 years decimated opposition at the national level. It is without doubt the most powerful political party in the country and one that offers the most potential for ambitious political leaders. In contrast, the Congress, once referred to as India’s Grand Old Party, is a weak shadow of itself. It has repeatedly lost elections at the Centre as well as in the states: in Parliament, the Congress now has 47 of the 543 seats. In 1984, when Rajiv Gandhi became Prime Minister, it had 414. His son, Rahul, now the party’s most prominent member, is witnessing the Congress’ steady and devastating decline. Of the 28 Indian states, the BJP rules 12 and is part of the ruling alliance in four more. The Congress is part of the ruling alliance in only five states. 

The steady decline of the Congress’ importance and sway in Indian politics is one of the chief reasons why ambitious politicians from that party have been disillusioned and have decided to ditch it and join the Modi bandwagon. It is for the same reason that veteran politicians of regional parties such Nitish Kumar and his Janata Dal (United) have chosen to ally with Modi and bury earlier differences with him.

The BJP on its part has welcomed the influx of such renegades. First, many of the new entrants are leaders with considerable influence in their constituencies and can obviously beef up the BJP’s electoral might further. Second, their departure can also serve to weaken their former parties, which is good for the BJP. Some of the younger joinees have good track record as ministers–for instance Scindia or Prasad – and, therefore, can strengthen the BJP’s administrative firepower. They can also help win elections.

Meanwhile, the BJP has been quietly, and a bit invisibly, deepening and strengthening itself. It has become a significant force in Indian politics, and its appeal is multifaceted. While the party has been associated with Hindu nationalism and has been accused of being anti-minorities, it has also been successful in projecting an image of good governance and welfare schemes that appeal to a broad section of the electorate. 

The BJP’s leadership, particularly Prime Minister Modi, is seen as strong and decisive, and the party has been successful in expanding its base and electoral presence. Last December, Modi retained his position as the world’s most popular leader with an approval rating of 76 per cent, as per the data released by US-based consultancy firm ‘Morning Consult’.

Additionally, the BJP’s well-oiled and lethal electoral campaign machine, which leaves nothing to chance, has been a significant factor in its success. The reasons for politicians leaving other parties to join the BJP may include disillusionment with their former party’s internal dynamics, leadership, and electoral prospects, but it is also the appeal of the BJP’s ideology, governance, and electoral success that has drawn them to it. Therefore, the BJP’s appeal is not limited to its association with Hindu nationalism, and it has been successful in projecting an image of good governance and welfare schemes that appeal to a broad section of the electorate.

Some observers feel that the BJP lacks a lineup of successors beyond Modi, 73, and home minister Amit Shah, 59, the two most prominent faces in the government. This may not be true.  The party has a history of grooming and promoting leaders from within its ranks and is far less dynastic than many other India political parties such as the Congress or even regional parties where the route to leadership is often limited to those with family ties and connections. 

Although some BJP leaders have been “sidelined”, including Shivraj Chouhan who was chief minister of Madhya Pradesh, Sushil Modi, who was deputy chief minister of Bihar, Vasundhara Raje, who was chief minister of Rajasthan for two terms, and Raman Singh, who served as chief minister of Chhattisgarh for 15 years, the BJP does have future leaders that it has been grooming.

Some of the younger leaders who have begun making a mark in the BJP and could be watched in the future include Himanta Biswa Sarma, who has emerged as the party’s point person in the north-east; Manoj Tiwari, 53, who the the Delhi BJP leader and whose influence has been growing; Tejasvi Surya, 33, an MP from Bangalore, known for his articulate speeches and strong conservative views; Poonam Mahajan, 43, another MP who is seen as a rising star in the party; and Sarbananda Sonowal, 61, an MP from Assam and currently a minister in the Modi cabinet. 

These are just a few names of leaders to watch from the BJP. It will be worth the while to watch how these younger breen of party leaders are groomed and given more responsibility in the coming years. Also worth watching is how many more leaders from other parties make a beeline to what has become India’s most powerful political magnet.

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Countdown To Modi's Third Term Begins

The Countdown to Narendra Modi’s Third Term Begins

The next time you are at an Indian railway station and it happens to be one of the hundred that has a selfie point, you can pass the time while waiting for your train by taking a photograph of yourself along with a life size replica of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The selfie points, if they’re of the permanent sort, cost around ₹6.25 lakh, while the temporary ones are cheaper at ₹1.25 lakh.

Railway stations aren’t the only places where you can take a selfie with the Prime Minister (albeit in a life-size 3-D avatar) beside you. Such points have also been installed at museums, parks, and other public spaces. According to media reports, universities and even the armed forces have been instructed to install them. One source says the total number of selfie points is 822.

At New Delhi’s international airport terminal, as you walk to the departure gates, there are several booths with Modi’s image along with that of Swami Gyananand where you can take a selfie. Swami, an Indian Mahamandaleshwar saint, is known for his research on Bhagavad Gita, the 700-verse Hindu scripture. He has also founded another organisation to globally promote the Gita.

The ubiquity of images and pictures of Modi, on posters, banners, official documents, and other commonly used official papers and forms for the past 10 years that he has been Prime Minister is not new but now their omnipresence seems truly larger than life and, quite clearly, this has much to do with the forthcoming parliamentary elections, which Modi and his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would like to win and extend the tenure of its rule by another five years.

Last December 31, The Guardian’s headline of an article said: BJP win in India’s 2024 general election ‘almost an inevitability’. It was written by Hannah-Ellis Petersen, the newspaper’s South Asia correspondent, and it described how, with less than six months left for the election (in which 900 million Indians will be eligible to vote) the Modi government had launched a nationwide campaign to highlight its achievements “despite criticisms of politicising government bureaucracy and resources for campaigning purposes”.

The Guardian’s use of the word “inevitability” in its headline (although in the article it is attributed to a prominent Indian policy analyst) displays the newspaper’s bias against Modi and his government, which are seen by the West as pushing a Hindu nationalist agenda and creating insecurity among minorities. Nearly 80% of Indians are Hindus and 14% are Muslims. As a percentage of India’s population of more than 1.4 billion, viewed against any global population statistics, both those numbers are huge.

Still, the view from the West could miss the reality on the ground in India. For instance, The Guardian article says: “At state and national level, the apparatus of the country has been skewed heavily towards the BJP since Modi was elected in 2014. He has been accused of overseeing an unprecedented consolidation of power, muzzling critical media, eroding the independence of the judiciary and all forms of parliamentary scrutiny and accountability and using government agencies to pursue and jail political opponents.”

To be sure, many Indian observers also agree that since the BJP-led regime came to power, elections, especially in the more populous northern and central states, have been marked by religious polarisation. And that inequality remains one of the biggest concerns and challenges. The richest 1% of Indians own 58% of wealth, while the richest 10% of Indians own 80% of the wealth. This trend has consistently increased–so the Indian rich are getting richer much faster than the poor, widening the income gap.

Also sadly, despite over 70 years’ of effort by the Indian government, the caste system (or social inequity) also continues to keep widening that gap. People coming from the marginalised sections of caste-based social categories, continue to be directly impacted in terms of their opportunities, access to essential utilities, and their potential as a whole.

The ordinary Indian voter, however, sees Modi as a strongman, a hero who has not only tried to enhance India’s prestige and status on the global stage–last year it hosted as rotational president the G-20 summit; and sent a space mission to land on the moon–but also tried to help improve the average Indian’s economic fortunes. India’s economy has grown at a higher rate than most large economies (although inequality has not been impacted significantly); a slew of subsidies aimed at the poor have benefited millions; and universal digital services have ensured that beneficiaries are not denied what they have the right to receive. Infrastructure, especially roads have improved impressively and so has public access to medical facilities and hygiene.

A well-known publicity and communications strategist of the Congress party, which is the BJP’s main challenger from the Opposition, admits that India will go to the polls with a clear advantage for Modi and his party. In 2019, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which is led by the BJP, won 353 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, or lower house of Parliament. The BJP on its own won 303 seats. This time, the Congress strategist who spoke on conditions of anonymity, said he wouldn’t be surprised if the NDA wins 350 seats, a staggering 65% of the total seats.

It is a fact that the Indian mainstream media is no longer a platform where criticism of the ruling regime or a focus on problem areas such as religious polarisation is encouraged. In fact, India’s largest newspapers and TV channels are dominated by hagiographic coverage of the Modi-led regime. Even “independent” media outlets, most of which are small and lack robust business models, have begun to shy away from criticising the government or its policies, some of them because they fear retaliation in the shape of tax raids or other regulatory action.

No one really cares. Last year, several leading Indian artists were “commissioned” to make artwork themed on the Prime Minister’s monthly addresses to the nation, Mann Ki Baat. The event, which occurs once a month, is aired by the state-owned TV channels (and co-telecast by many private channels as well) and streamed on the internet and social media platforms. The commissioning of artists marked the 100th episode of Mann Ki Baat and the art that they created was exhibited under the title Jana Shakti (people’s power) at Delhi’s prestigious National Gallery of Modern Art.

Last week it was announced that the Opposition alliance of nearly 30 parties, called I.N.D.I.A., would be headed by the Congress Party’s president, Mallikarjun Kharge. I.N.D.I.A., which stands for ‘Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance’, is a group of opposition parties, including the Congress, which have joined forces to challenge the NDA, led by the BJP, and stop it from securing a third consecutive term at the Centre in the Lok Sabha elections. Most Indians think that it will end in a whimper. And that Modi, 73, and his party will win the elections decisively and secure a third term for the regime he heads.

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Earth’s Year of Elections

2024 Will Be Earth’s Year of Elections. What Should You Expect?

This year could be the year of national elections on Earth. In 64 countries (plus the European Union), two billion humans or one in every four of the eight billion of us that populate the planet will be set to go to the polls. An estimated 1.16 billion of these voters will be from the South Asian countries of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, with India alone accounting for more than 900 million voters, which is 100 million more than the number that was eligible to vote in the previous national election held in 2019.

After you have wrapped your head around those staggering numbers, consider also how the outcomes of some of those elections could impact the state of the world here on our planet. Take the big ones first. The US will hold its presidential elections in November. As of now, indications are that former Republican President Donald Trump, who served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021, could be his party’s nominee for the 2024 election. Trump is facing a slew of legal problems but this does not seem to deter his supporters: with 52% of Republican voters or Republican-leaning independent voters, Trump is way ahead of his nearest rivals in the race for nomination.

If Trump, 77, is nominated, the face-off will likely be between him and the Democratic incumbent Joe Biden, 81. If Trump wins, as many analysts think he will if he is nominated, his policies and actions as President of the US will affect not only his country but also the state of the world. More on that soon. For now, turn to another election that will take place this year.

Two months from now, in March, Russia will go to the polls to elect a President. In all likelihood it will be Vladimir Putin who will be re-elected. Putin has been in charge of Russia since late 1999 or more than 21 years and is eligible for re-election this year, as a result of constitutional amendments that he orchestrated in 2020. The amendments reset his previous terms and allowed him to seek two more six-year terms, potentially extending his rule until 2036. Putin is 71 so, in theory, he can rule till he is 84.

Russia is a democracy only in theory. In reality it is an authoritarian state where elections are not free or fair. The Kremlin, Russia’s seat of power, controls the media, the security forces, and the election commission, and Putin has effectively suppressed all opposition, barred many of rivals from contesting the elections and either imprisoned dissenters or exiled them. 

A Trump-Putin Combo? If Putin is reelected, Russia will likely continue its aggressive foreign policy, especially in Ukraine and Eastern Europe, and face more international sanctions and isolation. Putin will also tighten his grip on domestic politics and suppress any dissent or opposition. If Trump is elected in 2024, the US will face more political and social turmoil, as Trump will try to overturn his 2020 election loss and pursue his populist agenda. Trump will also undermine democratic institutions and norms, and alienate many US allies and partners.

A Trump-Putin combo would mean that the world could face a more unstable and unpredictable geopolitical situation. Trump and Putin have a long history of mutual admiration and personal rapport, but their interests and agendas are often at odds. Trump could weaken NATO and other US alliances, while Putin could exploit the chaos and expand his influence in regions like Ukraine, Syria, and the Middle East. The risk of conflict and escalation between the two nuclear powers would increase, as well as the challenges for global cooperation on issues like climate change, human rights, and cybersecurity.

A third term for Modi? The biggest national elections this year will be in India, which has the largest electorate in the world, with over 900 million voters eligible to vote for the lower house of Parliament, Lok Sabha, which has 543 seats. India has a multi-party system, with two major alliances competing for power this year: the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.), led by the Indian National Congress (INC) and its president, Mallikarjun Kharge.

India’s elections are held in multiple phases, spanning over several weeks, to ensure security and logistical arrangements. In 2019, the elections were held in seven phases, from 11 April to 19 May. The schedule for 2024 is yet to be announced by the Election Commission of India (ECI).

India’s elections also involve millions of polling staff, security personnel, electronic voting machines, and observers. In 2019, there were over 10 lakh polling stations, 17.4 lakh voting machines, and 23 lakh security personnel deployed across the country.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is widely expected to win a third term in 2024, as he enjoys a strong popularity and because the Opposition is weak. In recent months, his party has scored significant victories in state elections, which could be an indication that voters’ support for it is strong.

A third term may see India becoming one of the top three economies in the world. India’s economy is one of the largest and fastest-growing in the world. According to the latest data from the World Bank, India’s nominal GDP was $3.73 trillion in 2023, making it the fifth-largest economy in the world after the USA, China, Japan, and Germany. India’s GDP growth rate was 7.6% in the second quarter of 2023-24, higher than most of the major economies.

India’s per capita income was $2,389 in 2022, which ranked 112th in the world. India’s per capita GDP on PPP basis was $8,379 in 2022, according to the World Bank. In comparison, China’s per capita GDP on PPP basis was $21,476 in 2022. This means that China’s per capita GDP on PPP basis was more than twice as high as India’s.

Prime Minister Modi faces some challenges such as poverty, inequality, infrastructure gaps, environmental issues, and fiscal deficits. However, during his tenure, which began in 2014, India has also undertaken several reforms and initiatives to boost its economic potential, such as the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the Make in India campaign, the Digital India program, and the Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan. India aims to become a $5 trillion economy by 2027 and a $10 trillion economy by 2032.

Led by Modi, India recently had a successful G20 presidency and a lunar mission. For a country of its size, it has also managed a satisfactory a post-COVID-19 recovery and achieved robust growth. India has also been part of a new Indo-Pacific alliance against China, along with the US, Australia, and Japan, to counter China’s expansionist ambitions and assert India’s role as a key player in the region.

In crisis areas such as the Russian aggression in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war, India has protected its own economic and political interests instead of taking sides. That sort of strategy could be expected to continue on the international front. Relations with China remain tense, though, especially on border disputes between the two countries although under Modi, the foreign policy targeted at China and Pakistan (with which there are continuing disputes on the western borders of the country) has been assertive.

Modi may, however, face some challenges in balancing the interests of different Indian states and regions, as well as in addressing the issues of social justice, environmental protection, and democratic rights.

Elections in the rest of South Asia. India’s neighbours, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, will also go to the polls this year. In Pakistan, elections are scheduled to be held in February but the Pakistan Senate has passed a resolution seeking to delay the elections due to security and weather concerns. The resolution is not binding and the final decision rests with the Election Commission of Pakistan. With the former Prime Minister Imran Khan in jail on corruption charges, the main contenders are the Pakistan Muslim League (N), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, and the Pakistan Peoples Party, led by former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari. In Pakistan, the army plays a key role in politics and the government and outcome of the election there will be keenly watched.

Elections will also take place this year in Bangladesh, where Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League has been in power since 2009 and where she is accused of silencing dissent and ruling with an authoritarian iron hand. She is expected to win another term.

India’s other neighbour, Sri Lanka, also goes to the polls this year. Two years ago, the then president of the island nation Gotabaya Rajapaksa was forced to flee his country after protests accused  him for the country’s worst economic crisis in 73 years. Inflation had soared and the nation had turned bankrupt leaving millions in the tiny country unable to get food, fuel or healthcare. That was when the current President Ranil Wickremesinghe took over. But elections haven’t been held in Sri Lanka since 2018 and if a date is finally announced for this year, all eyes will be on who gets the people’s mandate. Wickremesinghe, who helped get a loan from the International Monetary Fund and has led several reforms to get the economy back on track, will likely contest and hope for a second term.

Other notable elections in the world include Indonesia, where the current incumbent Joko Widodo (aka Jokowi) is ineligible due to term limits.

Besides this, there will be elections in Iran, South Korea, Panama, and several African Nations, including Rwanda, Libya, Mali, and Ghana. As I said, this year is the year of elections on Earth.

Ram Mandir is a Symbol of Unity

‘Ram Mandir is a Symbol of Unity For the Country’

Sagar Bachchas, a 21-year-old student from Ghaziabad, UP, shares his views on the Ram Temple and how it is paramount for the upcoming elections in 2024

BJP knows that elections cannot be won by development alone. They need to touch the emotional chord of the electorate and rake up issues like the Ram Mandir to win elections in 2024. And BJP realized this after its defeat in the 2004 general elections when it gave the slogan of ‘India Shining’.

In 2001, the party put forward the issue of Ram Mandir but not with full force. Earlier, Congress leader Rajiv Gandhi had promised to establish Ram Rajya in Ayodhya to pacify the Hindus but after winning the elections he obviously forgot about it. And BJP took advantage of this and then Prime Minister Modi has vigorously chased it since 2014 and made two promises – first was related to Article 370 and second to construction of Ram Mandir. He has delivered on both count.

The electorate today believes that for the last 10 years, the Congress has been creating problems in the construction of Ram Mandir to safeguard its vote bank. It did not get the Ram Mandir constructed while in power. Rather, it initiated criticism and speculation around it.

Even now, wherever the opposition party is in power, it is playing the caste census card and trying to mislead and divide the country; while the BJP is giving a message of unity through the construction of Ram temple.

BJP is set to promote the temple in an organized manner. By inaugurating the Ram Mandir, BJP might garner votes from South India (Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana) because the people there are also very sensitive about the subject.

ALSO READ: ‘BJP Has Raised And Dropped Ayodhya Issue Cyclically’

On the other hand, the Ram Mandir Trust and RSS will take the Ram Mandir inauguration ceremony as a celebration to the temples of 5 lakh villages and to the NRI families of about 156 countries living abroad. This will have a direct impact on the elections to be held in 2024.

At yet another level, just like other temples in the country provide employment, similarly people here will also benefit. According to estimates, about 16,000 people work in Tirupati Balaji temple and Ram temple is set to have a high employment potential. Alongside, the work of hotel bookings, travel agencies, flower garlands and religious items will get a boost. Nearly 1.5 crore people visited Ayodhya in the year 2014.

In 2022, this figure touched 4 crores, including about 55,000 indigenous people. Due to this, rail travel is expected to increase by about 15 times because the number of visitors has increased 2.5 times in the last six years. Foreign investors are being attracted to such development due to which foreign investment is big in Uttar Pradesh, and this will also lead to more jobs; and better economy. All this will put Ayodhya on the world map.

The construction of Ram temple in Ayodhya is the beginning of an era of development not only for Modiji but also for Uttar Pradesh and the country. I don’t need to say this, but soon Ayodhya shall see a boom in the real estate – people will be able to sell or lease their lands at good prices. The contribution of religious pilgrimage in the GDP of our country is 2.32% and the economy of temples is around 3.02 lakh crores.

The business in our country due to the construction of Ram temple will be huge and the income the government will earn from the temple will also help the country become the third largest economy in the world.

As told to Deepa Gupta

Ram Mandir is the Election Trump Card of BJP

‘Ram Mandir is the Election Trump Card of BJP for 2024’

Jaishanker Gupta, a veteran journalist and political observer, says the BJP will try to milk Ram Mandir issue to its maximum in the run-up to 2024 Lok Sabha elections. His views:

As the consecration ceremony of the Ram Temple, slated to be on January 22, draws near, there is little doubt that the BJP will expect to milk it to the utmost for political gains. A leader of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s stature will be attending the ceremony for obvious reasons. After all, it was the Ram Temple issue that catapulted the party to centre-stage in 1990.

Like previous elections, the ‘occasion’ is definitely being used for polarization of a particular section of vote that, by and large, stirs the ‘emotion’ every time for the saffron party. This has also been accepted by Modi who said that it is a good fortune that in his lifetime that he is witness to the building of Ram Temple in Ayodhya.

It was also clear from Modi’s Dussehra speech when he declared that ‘the much awaited moment is about to come and Ram Lala will find his divine seat at his birthplace. RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat had also talked about the inauguration of the temple and had called upon people to be a part of the celebration. This clearly indicates that the issue is going to be one of the top election agenda for the party.

ALSO READ: A Hope From Ram Mandir

For the past few months, Modi had also been projecting the 2024 general elections as one of development and legacy and he has spoken about this on many occasions. BJP also believes that in the last few years, from reviving the heritage to taking many other new initiatives, a new spirit of identifying our roots and boasting about it has emerged in the country, which will benefit the party. It will not at all be wrong to say that in this sequence, the biggest bet is from Ram temple. Modi himself can give a big message by being present on this occasion and it is believed that BJP’s election campaign can also start from this occasion.

Though BJP top notch leaders deny it out rightly, some were bold enough to accept the importance and ‘usage’ of the issue. Late Sushma Swaraj once said that the Ram Mandir issue is like a bearer cheque that could be en-cashed only once (in the elections). Former BJP president late Kusha Bhau Thakre, while replying to a similar question, once said that a boat is only useful to cross a river and you cannot carry it on your shoulders once you have crossed the river. 

The theme of every election is different and every party establishes its strongest point as a narrative in its own way. In such a situation, it is natural that BJP will present and use this opportunity for Hindu renaissance along with developmental issues in the next elections. The biggest advantage for them is that it will not be easy for the opposition parties to counter it.

As told to Rajat Rai

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