Indian Economy Archives - Lokmarg

What You Could Expect in Five More Years of Modi

By Sanjoy Narayan 24th March 2024

What You Could Expect in Five More Years of Modi

In mid-March, at this year’s annual conclave organised by the India Today group, in his introductory speech before inviting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to speak, the group’s chairman Aroon Purie remarked that Modi was not just campaigning for the soon to begin 2024 parliamentary elections but he also seemed to have his sights on the next one to be held in 2029. When Modi rose to speak, he was quick to grab that as a cue. Playfully rebuking Purie, he said, “You stopped with 2029? I am aiming for 2047!”

That repartee may have been in jest. In 2047, Modi, if he is still around, will be 97–an age at which it is not usual to still be active in politics. Yet, 2047, in Modi’s scheme of things, is a significant year. It will be the 100th anniversary of India’s Independence. It is also

the year for which Modi has envisioned Viksit Bharat @2047, a plan that is all about making India an advanced and developed country by that year.

Most observers, political analysts, and journalists, including the dwindling few among that third group in India who could still be considered detractors, are quite clear that it is almost a certainty that Modi will get a third term as Prime Minister, and that his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies will again win an overwhelming majority of the 543 seats for which the elections will be held in seven phases, beginning April 19. Modi himself is confident that his alliance, the National Democratic Alliance, will get more than 400 seats, beating its 2019 tally of 353.

The support and popularity that Modi enjoys is quite unprecedented in Indian politics and, as a consequence, his party and its allies are tipped as the clear winners in this year’s elections. Yet when it comes to the number of seats, the math may not be simple. Modi and his party are not very popular in the southern Indian states, which have largely been a bastion of regional parties and the opposition Congress Party. The south (four states and one union territory) has 130 of the 543 parliamentary seats, and in the 2019 elections, while it swept the northern states, the NDA won only 30 of them. How Modi and his alliance fares in the south this time would determine whether their final tally touches or crosses 400.

The Impact of Modi 3.0

That is a minor math conundrum. The larger issue is what a third term for Modi would mean for India and its people. At the India Today Conclave mentioned earlier, Modi ended his speech with his own predictions. In the next five years, he said, India’s infrastructure would reach new heights with significant advancements. For example, he said, Indian Railways would bring transformative changes to transportation. India, which is now the world’s biggest importer of defence equipment, would emerge as an exporter with a much stronger presence in the global defence market. And, in the space sector, after already having launched a successful moon mission, India would set new records in space endeavours.

Economic Growth. On the economic front, Modi has already set some tangible targets to achieve in his third term. Such as becoming the third largest economy in the world after the US and China. India with a GDP estimated at $3.7 trillion is growing the fastest among the world’s big economies and in size it is now the fifth largest economy in the world. To become the third, it would have to overtake Germany (at number 4) and Japan (number 3). With its fast-paced growth that would not seem difficult to achieve.

Reducing Poverty. According to the National Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), India has already made big strides. The MPI captures overlapping deprivations in health, education, and living standards by complementing income-based poverty measurements by directly measuring and comparing deprivations. In the period, 2019-21, 14.96% of India’s population was multi-dimensionally poor, compared to 24.85% in 2015-16. This means that 135 million individuals have escaped multidimensional poverty during the 5-year period. The several schemes implemented by the Modi regime (such as direct transfers of welfare and subsidies; credit assurance to vendors; and support for tribal groups and artisans) will likely lead to further reduction in poverty during a third Modi term.

Other areas where progress could continue includes women’s empowerment. Although violence against women, closing gender gaps, and promoting economic opportunities are ongoing priorities, women have benefited from schemes to increase financial inclusion, subsidies on items such as cooking gas, emphasis on girl child education, and women’s involvement in local government. Gender equality can be expected to be an important objective in Modi’s third term.

An increased emphasis on national security and strengthening India’s security infrastructure, both internal as well as external, will also be a top priority area for the government. ‘

The Worrisome Issues

A third term would also pose other challenges for the Modi regime. One topic of discussion has been the potential downgrading of democracy ratings in India and the independence and autonomy of its institutions such as the judiciary. In 2021, international indices such as the US-based non-profit, Freedom House, downgraded India’s status from a free democracy to a “partially free democracy”. Sweden’s V-Dem Institute, which publishes datasets that describe qualities of different governments, classified India as an “electoral autocracy”. The Economist Intelligence Unit described India as a “flawed democracy” pointing to enacted laws such as the Citizenship Amendment Act, the National Registration of Citizens, and the revocation of Kashmir’s special status.

The past 10 years has seen a rise in majoritarianism in Indian society and increased communal tension, particularly between Muslims who account for 14.2% of the population and Hindus who make up 80%. How minorities will be treated in a third term of the BJP-led government could be an area of concern.

Also, despite the optimism about the Indian economy and its high growth rate, issues like inflation, unemployment, and rural inequality remain pressing challenges that need to be addressed. Youth unemployment because of mismatch of education with employment opportunities are areas that the new government or a Modi 3.0 regime will have to focus on in the next five years. India is still a young country–more than 50% of its population is below the age of 25 and more than 65% below the age of 35. While this is often referred to as a demographic dividend, in the absence of opportunities for India’s young, it could backfire horribly.

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Two Get Bail in Bhima-Koregaon Case But is the Case Merely a Witch Hunt?

By Sanjoy Narayan 30th July 2023

Last weekend India’s Supreme Court granted bail to two prominent rights activists, Vernon Gonsalves and Arun Ferreira, who have been jailed since 2018 in the Bhima Koregaon case. The court’s decision to grant bail to the two is interpreted as a refreshing revival of the Indian judiciary’s independence and values. But what is the Bhima Koregaon case?

The Bhima Koregaon case is a controversial and complex legal case that involves the arrests of several activists, academics, and political leaders for allegedly inciting caste violence and having links to Maoist rebels in India.

The origins of the case go back to the last day of 2017 when an event called called Elgaar Parishad was held in Pune, Maharashtra, to commemorate the 200th anniversary of the Battle of Koregaon-Bhima, where a small force of Dalit soldiers of the British East India Company defeated a larger army of the Peshwa, a Brahmin ruler. The event was attended by thousands of people, mostly Dalits, who consider the battle as a symbol of their resistance against caste oppression.

The event sparked off violence the next day, New Year’s Day 2018, when Dalit and upper-caste groups clashed near the Koregaon-Bhima war memorial. One person died and several were injured in the incident. The police filed an FIR against two right-wing leaders, Sambhaji Bhide and Milind Ekbote, for allegedly instigating the violence but no arrests were made.

Six months later, the Pune police arrested five activists, Sudhir Dhawale, Shoma Sen, Mahesh Raut, Rona Wilson, and Surendra Gadling, for allegedly having links to the banned Communist Party of India (Maoist) and for being part of a conspiracy to assassinate Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The police claimed that they had evidence from letters and documents seized from their computers and devices. The activists denied the charges and said that the evidence was fabricated.

A couple of months later, the police followed it up by raiding the homes of several other activists across the country and arrested five more, Varavara Rao, Vernon Gonsalves, Arun Ferreira, Sudha Bharadwaj, and Gautam Navlakha, on similar charges. They also alleged that these activists were involved in organising the Elgaar Parishad event and inciting violence at Bhima Koregaon.

In November 2018, the Bombay High Court rejected the bail pleas of the first five activists and extended their house arrest. In December 2018, the Supreme Court dismissed a petition seeking an independent probe into the case.

In January 2019, the Pune police filed a charge sheet against 10 of the accused, naming them as “urban Naxals” who were part of a larger conspiracy to overthrow the government and wage war against the country. The charge sheet also named nine more absconding accused, including some top Maoist leaders.

In February 2019, the Bombay High Court granted bail to Gautam Navlakha, but stayed his release for four weeks to allow the state to appeal. In March 2019, the Supreme Court set aside his bail order and directed him to surrender before the trial court.

In April 2019, the police filed a supplementary charge sheet against five more accused,

In April 2019, the Pune police filed a supplementary charge sheet against five more accused, Anand Teltumbde, Stan Swamy, Hany Babu, Sagar Gorkhe, and Ramesh Gaichor.

In January 2020, the then newly-formed Maharashtra government led by the Shiv Sena announced that it would review the case and consider dropping charges against some of the accused. However, in February 2020, the central government transferred the case to the National Investigation Agency (NIA), a federal agency that deals with terrorism-related cases.

In April 2020, amid the Covid-19 pandemic, several accused filed bail applications on medical grounds, citing their vulnerability to infection in prison. However, most of them were denied bail by various courts. In July 2020, Varavara Rao tested positive for Covid-19 and was shifted to a hospital. His family and lawyers alleged that he was not given proper medical care in prison and demanded his release on humanitarian grounds. In August 2020, he was granted interim bail for six months by the Bombay High Court on medical grounds.

The case of Stan Swamy, an 83-year-old Jesuit priest and tribal activist, stands out in particular for the insensitivity with which it was handled. Swamy was arrested by the NIA from his residence in Ranchi, Jharkhand in October 2020. Swamy, who suffered from Parkinson’s disease, was denied bail twice despite his fragile health condition.

In July 2021, Swamy died of a cardiac arrest in a hospital in Mumbai. He was 84 years old and had been on ventilator support for several days. His death sparked outrage and condemnation from various quarters, including the United Nations and the European Union. His lawyers and family accused the authorities of denying him proper medical care and violating his human rights.

Last week, the Supreme Court granted bail to Vernon Gonsalves and Arun Ferreira, two of the activists arrested in August 2018. They were both trade unionists and human rights defenders. The court noted that they had spent nearly five years in custody without trial and that mere accusations should not suffice as the sole basis for denying bail. The court imposed certain conditions on their bail, such as surrendering their passports, not leaving Maharashtra, and sharing their mobile location with the NIA.

As of now, out of the 23 arrested accused in the case, six have been granted bail (either interim or regular), one has died in custody, and 16 are still in jail awaiting trial. The trial is yet to begin as the charges are yet to be framed by the court. The case has been widely criticized as a witch-hunt against dissenting voices and an abuse of anti-terror laws by the state. The accused have maintained their innocence and claimed that they are being targeted for their work on behalf of marginalised communities and social justice causes.

If India and China Get Closer, What Would it Mean for the World?

In June this year, during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US, the two countries signed the sort of defence agreements that the US usually reserves for its closest allies. One of the deals included in the agreements is a $3-billion one for 31 High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) drones, of which the Navy will get 15 SeaGuardian drones. while the Army and the Indian Air Force (IAF) will get eight each of the SkyGuardian land version. The significance of these deals is not only that they enhance India’s defence capabilities but also demonstrate the degree of closeness between India and the US.

The US has viewed India as a potential strategic ally and a counterbalance against the rising power of China with whom its relationship has been on a steady decline. It is a hope and strategy that has been pursued by the US since the Clinton regime. Since then regardless of whether it has been a Republican or a Democrat in the White House, the US has sought closer relations with India. The fact that India’s relations with China, have also been under strain, chiefly because of the long-drawn-out border dispute in the former’s north-eastern boundaries, has also united the two countries–with both having a sort of common enemy.

What if that changes? What if India and China manage to reach a rapprochement over the border and other disputes?

On the face of it, it could seem premature to assume that could happen. After all, it has been barely three years since Indian and Chinese troops clashed at the border with India suffering more casualties than China. Both countries amassed more troops on the north-eastern side of India, the US offered high altitude combat gear and other assistance, and China enhanced its military infrastructure on the other side. The dispute also led to restrictions on trade, and bans on Chinese apps in India.

But is a detente now in the offing? Post-pandemic bilateral trade between India and China has grown more than 40%; and although the border dispute has not been resolved, after several rounds of negotiations, both sides have withdrawn some of their troops from each side.

Both India and China have much to gain from a more harmonious relationship between them. Trade, especially in technology inputs from China, and the vast market India offers to China whose economy is showing distinct signs of slowing, is important to both countries. A Symbiotic relationship between China and India could, in effect, lead to a greater bond between the two neighbours and, consequently, thwart the West’s (read:the US) attempts to gain stronger support of India as a counterfoil to China.

True, these developments are still nascent but the US should take note that getting India as an ally is not going to be a cakewalk in an increasingly polarising geopolitical situation.

Should Modi Worry About INDIA, the Opposition Alliance?

A united opposition can be a potential threat to Narendra Modi, whose government has been in power since 2014 and has been able to marginalise most of its prominent political rivals, notably the Congress party whose current status is a faint shadow of what it was before 2014.

After failing to stop the Modi-led juggernaut in elections–both at the Centre and in several states, India’s Opposition parties have now forged an alliance, Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) to challenge Modi and his BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) in the next general election, which is due in May 2024. The alliance comprises 26 parties, including the main national opposition Congress party and several regional parties that have a strong base in some states.

The alliance claims to represent the interests of the people and the Constitution, and to oppose the “hatred and violence” that they allege Modi and his BJP have unleashed against minorities, especially Muslims, who make up about 14% of India’s population. The alliance also accuses Modi of undermining democracy, institutions, and federalism, and of mishandling the Covid-19 pandemic, the economy, and foreign policy.

But INDIA faces many challenges in taking on the current regime. Modi continues to be the most popular leader among the majority of Indians who are Hindus and make up 80% of the 1.4 billion population of the country. In an age where individual personalities play a significant role in politics, Modi has a charismatic personality, a strong media presence, and a loyal base of supporters who see him as a decisive and visionary leader who can deliver development and security for the country. Modi also has the advantage of being the undisputed leader of his party, while the opposition alliance has no clear leader or prime ministerial candidate.

Many believe that the Opposition alliance is potentially riven by internal differences and contradictions. It is a union of disparate ideologies and interest groups that are united only because they are all opposed to the Modi regime. Such a basis for an alliance can be fraught with risks of fractures and, indeed, a collapse.

Many in the alliance are rivals or enemies in their respective states, and some of them have been allies or partners of the BJP in the past. The alliance will have to find a common minimum program that can appeal to voters across regions, castes, religions, and classes.

INDIA will also have to contend with the BJP’s formidable electoral machine, which has a huge network of workers, volunteers, and resources. The BJP also has the support of several influential groups, such as the RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh), a Hindu nationalist organization that is the ideological mentor of the BJP; the VHP (Vishva Hindu Parishad), a Hindu right-wing group that campaigns for Hindu causes; and various media outlets that are sympathetic or loyal to the BJP.

The alliance will also have to face the challenges posed by the electoral system, which is based on first-past-the-post voting. This means that even if the alliance gets more votes than the BJP nationally, it may not get more seats in parliament if it loses in key states or constituencies where the BJP has a strong presence or advantage. Seat-sharing strategies will be important for winning in the elections and these, for parties that have often been at loggerheads with each other, can be difficult to forge.

Then there is the question of defections and splits. Political alliances in India have also been marked by instances of sabotage from within. Also, the BJP can attempt to lure away key members of the alliance with the offer of lucrative political deals that capitalise on individual ambitions or lust for power.

In theory, a united opposition is probably the only way to challenge the monolithic and powerful regime that Modi has in place but in practice it is not going to be easy. Which way voters cast their ballots will depend on how they assess the performance of the Modi government, which will have completed 10 years by the time the elections are held. It will also depend on campaign strategies of either side and, of course, on any unforeseen developments that could change the narrative.

India’s Economy is Growing Fast But That isn’t Enough

India’s economy is one of the fastest-growing and largest in the world, but it also faces many challenges and uncertainties. According to the World Bank, India’s GDP growth rate was 8.3% in 2022, making it the fifth-largest economy by nominal GDP. However, the IMF projects that India’s growth will slow down to 6.9% in 2023 and 6.5% in 2024, due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the weakness of the financial sector, and the slowdown in global trade.

Some of the main drivers of India’s economic growth are its large and young population, its urbanisation and digitalisation, its reforms and investments in infrastructure, and its integration with global markets. Some of the main pitfalls that India’s economy faces are its high poverty and inequality, its environmental and social sustainability, its institutional and governance quality, and its geopolitical and security risks.

Therefore, India’s economic prospects depend on how well it can balance its opportunities and challenges, and how resilient and adaptable it can be in the face of shocks and uncertainties. India needs to pursue a more inclusive, sustainable, and job-rich growth model that can benefit all its people and regions, while also enhancing its competitiveness and innovation in the global arena.

Why Oppenheimer Doing Better than Barbie in India

In India, some things can often be counter-intuitive. That could be the case in the box-office performance of two potential blockbuster Hollywood movies that hit the screens together at the end of July.

Based on available information, globally it seems that the Barbie movie has been more successful than the Oppenheimer movie, at least so far. The Barbie movie, which stars Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling as the iconic dolls, and is directed by Greta Gerwig, opened on July 21, 2023 to rave reviews and record-breaking box office numbers. According to various sources, the Barbie movie made over $500 million worldwide in its first week, and was expected to cross $700 million by its second weekend. Some analysts predict that the Barbie movie will soon reach $1 billion worldwide, making it one of the biggest hits of the year.

The Oppenheimer movie, which stars Cillian Murphy as the father of the atomic bomb, and is directed by Christopher Nolan, opened on the same day as the Barbie movie, but had a lower profile and a smaller budget. The Oppenheimer movie also received positive reviews and impressive box office results, but not as much as the Barbie movie. According to various sources, the Oppenheimer movie made about $180 million worldwide in its first week, and was expected to reach $300 million by its second weekend. Some analysts predict that the Oppenheimer movie will end up with around $500 million worldwide, making it a profitable and acclaimed film, but not a blockbuster.

But let’s cut to India, where things seem to be quite different. After it was released on the same date as everywhere else in the world, the Barbie film grossed nearly Rs 39 crore in the first 10 days in India. But Oppenheimer, released simultaneously with Barbie, has soared ahead of the global blockbuster. The film’s total gross collections are nearly Rs 78 crore.

Is that surprising? Perhaps not. Barbie is a fashion doll created in 1959, manufactured and marketed by the toy giant Mattel. It became a worldwide franchise worth millions of dollars and swept the market for decades. However, in India the Barbie brand resonates with a tiny percentage of affluent, western-influenced households.

In contrast, the interest in Oppenheimer, which is about the father of the most devastating invention of modern weaponry, resonates with many more Indians than a blonde doll with an improbable physique does.

Nepal National Abuses Cabin Crew, Breaks Lavatory Door

By LokMarg 11th July 2023

Delhi police has registered a case against a Nepal national for abusing a cabin crew member onboard and breaking the lavatory door inside the Air India flight after taking off from Toronto, officials said.

According to the FIR, the victim cabin supervisor, Aditya Kumar, stated that a passenger named Mahesh Singh Pandit, a resident of Nepal changed his seat from 26 E to 26 F and started abusing the economy class crew members.
Aditya in the FIR said that after the passenger started abusing the crew members, they informed the pilot in command and give him an oral warning. Later after lunch service, the smoke alarm sounded and after opening the LAV door, he caught the passenger with a cigarette lighter and smoking smell.

“When I opened the door in front of the passenger, he pushed me back and ran to his seat 26F. When I tried to stop him, he pushed me and abused me also. Later he broke the LAV door 3F-RC. Then I informed the captain immediately and as per captain instruction with the help of cabin crew Punit Sharma and other four passengers we tried to restrain him as per SOP,” Aditya added.

Cabin supervisor Aditya in his FIR also mentioned that they were able to restrain the accused passenger with the help of 10 other passengers and but later got the information that the accused was trying to beat the passengers also.

“With the help of 10 passengers and two cabin crew, we successfully restrained the accused passenger. After that I came back to my allotted first class but got the information that he is still trying to beat the passengers,” Aditya said.

Delhi Police registered a case under sections 323/506/336 Indian Penal Code and 22,23,25 Aircraft rules at IGI Police station.

Further investigation into the matter is underway. (ANI)

Indian Economy Expected To Grow 6.5-7%: CEA Nageswaran

By LokMarg 9th June 2023

The Indian economy is expected to grow in a range of 6.5-7 per cent in the current financial year 2023-24 per cent, said Chief Economic Advisor Anantha Nageswaran.

The forecast was on the back of firm investments and rapid stride in digital transformation.

The CEA was speaking at the plenary session on ‘Mission USD 9 trillion Indian Economy by 2030’ organised by the industry body Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) as a part of industry interaction on ‘Building a Resilient Economy’ in Lucknow.

The Indian economy is in a state of autopilot and is bouncing back impressively after the pandemic, he said and hoped the 2022-23 GDP numbers could be revised upwards in the subsequent revisions.

As per the provisional estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) recently, real GDP growth for 2022-23 stood at 7.2 per cent, higher than the 7 per cent projected.

Earlier, too, the CEA said he expected an upward revision in the 2022-23 GDP numbers going ahead.

Despite strong global headwinds and tighter domestic monetary policy tightening, various international agencies have forecasted India to be one of the fastest-growing economies in 2023-24, supported by robust growth in private consumption and sustained pick-up in private investment.

Sharing his optimism on the medium-term growth prospects of the Indian economy, Dr Nageswaran highlighted that the sound macroeconomic policies of the government, structural reforms such as GST, IBC etc, thrust on infrastructure and digitalisation have ensured that the Indian economy can grow for a longer period without running into the overheating situation.

“Between now and 2030, based on what we have done so far without even assuming that further reforms will be done, I can say that we have the potential to grow steadily between 6.5-7.0 per cent and if we add the additional reforms on skilling, factor market reforms among others, we can go up to 7.0-7.5 per cent and possibly even 8 per cent”, he further added.

According to the CEA, private consumption, which contributes close to 60 per cent to GDP, has surpassed the pre-pandemic trend in the third quarter of the last fiscal contributed by the release of pent-up demand and recovery in rural demand.

Going ahead, a lower inflation outlook due to easing commodity prices, and a good harvest will have a substantial impact on boosting consumption spending further.

On the sightings of green shoots of recovery in rural demand, the CEA highlighted that an increase in Minimum Support Price (MSP) for major crops and a rise in the MNREGA wage rate are expected to improve the financial security of rural households further and boost rural demand in the coming months.

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA), chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on Wednesday, approved the increase in Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for Kharif crops for the 2023-24 season. The increase was to the tune of 5-10 percent range. The government through its agencies procures crops from farmers from time to time at support prices. (ANI)

‘I Know Little About Economy, But I Am Managing Fine’

By LokMarg 27th January 2023

Naveen, 39, who sells mobile accessories in a South Delhi locality, says there are hardships in life but he is happy and has no worries

Is the Indian economy in a crisis? Are thousands of people jobless? Is there hunger and poverty in large areas of the country? I don’t know. It could be true. As for me, I have no complaints and I am happy with the economy and my life, and I have no great expectations or deep regrets. I live a humble life and I am able to manage.

I live in a simple DDA flat with my mother and relatives. Life has not been easy. However, I am able to cope with it all.

Standing here on the stairs, for long hours, shouting out to customers, selling my stuff, this is my comfort zone. Some ignore me, some buy my stuff. No one bothers me, and no one tells me to go away. I feel comfortable here, and many regular customers know me. I have no desire for a shop or a permanent job – as of now this work is fine for me.

I come here at 12 noon and stay back till late evening, even after dark. Most days I am able to make enough money, though it’s almost 2 am today and I have not had a single customer. Sometimes, in fact, many times, people buy my mobile accessories. Some buy many plastic glasses in one go. I sell one glass for ₹5. If they buy 50 glasses, it comes to ₹250. In that case, I earn around ₹30 or more. I make enough to survive with my mother.

ALSO READ: ‘Govt Claims On Economy Do Not Reflect In My Kitchen’

During the lockdown, thousands of people suffered. There were no jobs. Shops were shut. There was a universal crisis. However, I suffered no such crisis. I set up my make-shift shop outside my humble house and business was not so bad even during the pandemic and the lockdown. The cops were kind to me, and the area officers know me since I have been a child. So no one created any trouble for me. I was able to make some earnings even during that period of crisis. So, let other people say whatever – I really did not suffer so badly during and after the lockdown. I am happy with my little earnings.

I don’t have big dreams. Of course, I too have aspirations like everyone else, but I am not really chasing the money to become a crorepati. I would be happy to continue standing here and selling my stuff in the days to come. Little is enough for me.

Do you want to take my picture? Let me tell you, I don’t want any publicity (he wears his mask to block the picture). However, if taking my picture benefits you in some way, and helps you in your job, you are welcome to click my picture. (Takes his mask off). Thank you.

As told to Amit Sengupta

India Has Become 5th Largest Economy In 2022: Modi In Mann Ki Baat

By LokMarg 25th December 2022

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday addressed the last Mann Ki Baat of the year 2022 and said that this year, the country had become the world’s fifth-largest economy.

“The year 2022 was wonderful, India completed 75 years of Independence while ‘Amrit Kaal’ began. India progressed rapidly and became the world’s fifth-largest economy, and achieved the unbelievable record of 220 crore vaccines and crossed the USD 400 billion mark in exports,” PM Modi said in the 96th edition of Mann Ki Baat, a monthly radio programme of the Prime Minister.
He also talked about the Aatmanirbhar Bharat initiative of the government and lauded the launch of INS Vikrant.

The commissioning of India’s first indigenous aircraft carrier is a momentous occasion during the ‘Amritkaal’ of India’s 75 years of independence and signifies the country’s confidence and prowess.

This indigenous aircraft carrier is proof of the country’s technical acumen and engineering skills. This demonstration of India’s self-sufficiency to produce an aircraft carrier warship will reinforce the country’s defence indigenisation programmes and the ‘Make in India’ campaign.

INS Vikrant, built at a cost of around Rs 20,000 crore, successfully completed its fourth and final phase of sea trials last month. With the construction of ‘Vikrant’, India has joined a select group of nations having the niche capability to indigenously design and build an aircraft carrier.

The ship has over 2,300 compartments, designed for a crew of around 1,700 people, including specialised cabins to accommodate women officers.

INS Vikrant has a top speed of around 28 knots and a cruising speed of 18 knots with an endurance of about 7,500 nautical miles. The aircraft carrier is 262 metres long, and 62 metres wide and it has a height of 59 metres. Its keel was laid in 2009.

Further in the address, he also underscored the country’s responsibility for chairing the G20 summit this year.

“This year, India has also got the prestigious responsibility of chairing the G20 group. I had also discussed this in detail last time,” he said.

G20 is the premier forum for international economic cooperation representing around 85 per cent of the global GDP, over 75 per cent of the worldwide trade, and about two-thirds of the world population.

On December 1, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said India’s agenda for the G20 will be inclusive, ambitious, and action-oriented. In his blog post, PM Modi said India will work to promote a universal sense of oneness and its priorities will be shaped not only in consultation with G20 partners but also with the Global South.

He underlined that the great challenges of today like climate change, terrorism, and pandemics, cannot be solved by fighting each other but by acting together. “India’s G20 agenda will be inclusive, ambitious, action-oriented, and decisive,” he wrote.

Citing the theme – ‘One Earth, One Family, One Future’, PM Modi said India’s G20 Presidency will work to promote this universal sense of one-ness. “This is not just a slogan. It takes into account recent changes in human circumstances, which we have collectively failed to appreciate,” he said.

Writing for the think tank South-South Research Initiative (SSRI), Farjana Sharmin noted India finally got the opportunity to execute its global vision and grand strategy, and secondly, the South Asian region is going to get benefits through India’s leadership in G-20.

PM Modi also extended his greetings on the occasion of Christmas.

He said: “Today is the day to remember the teachings of Jesus Christ. The festival of Christmas is being celebrated with great fervour all across the world. I extend my heartful greetings to everyone.”

On December 13, PM Modi invited people to share their inputs for this episode of Mann ki Baat and urged them to write on the NaMo App, and MyGov app or record their messages on 1800-11-7800.

Sharing MyGov’s invitation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted, “2022’s last #MannKiBaat will take place on the 25th of this month. I am eager to receive your input on the programme. I urge you to write on the NaMo App, MyGov or record your message on 1800-11-7800.” (ANI)

India-UK Free Trade Agreement On Cards

By LokMarg 12th December 2022

UK’s Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch on Monday begins her India visit with a first face-face meeting with counterpart Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal as the sixth round of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations kicks off between the countries.

Badenoch’s visit marks the sixth round of formal negotiations between the UK and India. The goal of strengthening bilateral ties and reviving talks on an ambitious bilateral trade deal between the two nations, according to an official statement.

Badenoch is scheduled to address both the teams of negotiators teams before the round of talks begin. The negotiations will take place throughout the week

The UK Trade Secretary will also meet with business leaders to better understand their needs for a modern UK – India trade relationship.

This will include a meeting with envoPAP, a UK company investing over 10 million pounds in India to construct a plant producing Fairtrade paper and packaging products.

The talks, the first formal round since July, will aim to reach an agreement to reduce tariffs and expand opportunities for UK services such as financial and legal, making it easier for British businesses to sell to the world’s third-largest economy – with a middle class of 250 million people – by 2050.

“I’m here in New Delhi to kickstart round six of UK-India trade negotiations and meet my counterpart Minister Goyal in person to drive progress on this agreement,” Secretary of State for International Trade Kemi Badenoch said in a statement.

“India and the UK are the 5th and 6th biggest economies in the world. We have a long shared history, and are in pole position to do a deal that will create jobs, encourage growth and boost our 29 billion pounds trading relationship,” added the minister who was appointed to her role this September.

According to the official announcement, major UK brands such as Pret A Manger, Revolut, and Tide have announced plans to expand in India.

Following a franchise deal with Reliance Brands, British coffee and sandwich retailer Pret will build its first outlet in India in early 2023. The chain’s first location will be in Mumbai, as part of a goal to open 100 locations around the country.

“Bringing Pret’s freshly made food and organic coffee to more people around the world is a key part of our transformation strategy, and I’m delighted to be launching Pret in India,” Pano Christou, CEO, of Pret A Manger said.

According to International Director of the Confederation of British Industry, Andy Burwell the UK-India Free Trade Agreement remains a high focus for the industry.

Earlier in October when Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Rishi Sunak on assuming charge as UK Prime Minister, the two leaders emphasized the importance of an early conclusion of “a balanced and comprehensive” Free Trade Agreement between the two countries.

India and the UK were looking to conclude the bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) pact but missed the deadline after the resignations of former Prime Ministers Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.

On July 29, the two countries concluded the fifth round of talks for an India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA). (ANI)

India Will Be A 40 Trill-Dollar Economy By 2047: Mukesh

By LokMarg 22nd November 2022

India will be a USD 40-trillion dollar economy by 2047 and ranked among the top three economies of the world, Reliance Industries Chairman Mukesh D Ambani has said and identified Clean Energy Revolution, the Bio-Energy Revolution, and the Digital Revolution as “three game-changing revolutions” that will govern India’s growth in the decades ahead.

Addressing the convocation of Pandit Deendayal Energy University (PDEU) here on Tuesday, Mukesh Ambani said India is poised for an “unprecedented explosion in economic growth and opportunities” during the Amrit Kaal, the 25-year period to 2047 when India will celebrate the centenary of its independence.
He said the three game-changing revolutions will together transform lives in ways unimagined.

“While the Clean Energy Revolution and the Bio-Energy Revolution will produce energy sustainably, the Digital Revolution will enable us to consume energy efficiently. All three revolutions will together help India and the world save our beautiful planet from the Climate Crisis,” he said.

“I am confident that you, the students of PDEU, along with lakhs of other bright young minds from across the nation, will leverage these revolutions to enable India to meet its energy goals,” he added.

Mukesh Ambani, who is President, the Board of Governors of PDEU, said he was excited about the convocation ceremony.

“This batch of PDEU is graduating during a year that marks the beginning of India’s Amrit Kaal. In our tradition, Amrit Kaal is regarded as the most auspicious time to start anything new. And each of you is starting your professional journey in this period. As the Amrit Kaal unfolds, India will witness an unprecedented explosion in economic growth and opportunities,” he said.

“From a 3 trillion-dollar economy, India will grow to become a 40 trillion-dollar economy by 2047, ranking among the top three economies of the world in your working life. In other words, a bright future beckons you. Be ready to step out confidently when opportunity knocks on your door,” he added.

Mukesh Ambani said the university has made the students future-ready because it researches and teaches “energy with a very comprehensive perspective”.

He also had a word of advice for students, saying that in the era of 4G and 5G, there is no ‘G’ greater than “MataG and PitaG”.

“Today is your day. The arc lights are on you. But standing in the wings is your parents and elders… it’s a very special day for them too. They have waited eagerly to see you walk up to the stage and receive your graduation certificate. It has been their lifelong dream,” Mukesh Ambani said.

“Don’t ever forget the struggles they underwent and the sacrifices they made to bring you here. Their contribution to your success is immeasurable. Let me tell you something in your own lingo – the language of the youth. Nowadays, every youngster is excited about 4G and now 5G. But there is no ‘G’ in this world greater than Mata G and Pita G. They were, are, and will always remain your most dependable pillars of strength and support,” he added.

He said PDEU students were “bubbling with energy and enthusiasm”, “brimming with creativity and ideas” and “bristling with entrepreneurial spirit” and were equipped with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to design breakthrough energy solutions for 1.4 billion Indians.

“You have all the necessary ingredients to be the leaders India needs…And as leaders of India’s future, you should ensure our nation leads the global clean and green energy revolution. It is a goal each one of you should pursue in mission mode,” he said.

The leading industrialist shared three mantras with students to help them achieve success in this mission:

“One, Think Big. Be an audacious dreamer. Every great thing ever built in this world was once a dream thought to be impossible. You have to own your dream with courage, nurture it with conviction and realize it with bold and disciplined action. It is the only way you can make the impossible possible.

“Two, Think Green. The Clean Energy movement is about adopting a green mindset. It is about being sensitive to Mother Nature. It is about inventing means to harvest its energy without harming it. It is about ensuring that we leave behind a better and healthier planet for future generations.

“And three, Think Digital. In your mission of making India a clean energy leader, digitisation will play the role of a force multiplier. Technologies such as AI, Robotics, and IoT are powerful enablers of change. Use them to your advantage. These three mantras will be your astras in your mission of making India a global clean energy leader,” he said.

Referring to challenges posed by COVID-19, he said the period “was a trial by fire for each of you….indeed, for all of humanity”

“But remember, the finest sword is forged in raging fire,” he said.

Mukesh Ambani said the experiences in the past couple of years are “invaluable lessons no institution could have taught you”.

“They have shaped you into better professionals. They have made you tougher from within. They have filled you with the spirit of care and empathy.

“And they have taught you the importance of service to humanity with honesty and integrity. With these learnings in your kitty, no mountain will be too high to climb; no river will be too wide to cross. So roll up your sleeves and move ahead,” he said.

Referring to Hasmukh Adhia, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the University, Mukesh Ambani said he is “one of the finest financial minds India has produced”.

“The banking and fiscal reforms he formulated as Finance Secretary have changed the face of our financial system. Under his chairmanship, PDEU has become the first private university in Gujarat to be awarded the A++ grade by NAAC. The credit for this achievement also goes to the excellent faculty and staff of PDEU,” he said.

Referring to Tata Group chairperson N Chandrasekaran, who was the chief guest for the event, Mukesh Ambani said he “is a true inspiration to the business community and the youth of India”.

“Through his vision, conviction, and rich hands-on experience, he has scripted Tata Group’s spectacular growth in recent years. He has also led its forays into the businesses of the future,” he said.

Mukesh Ambani said he is particularly inspired by “the gigantic steps” the group has taken in the field of renewable energy under his leadership.

“If India has to become a renewable energy powerhouse, it is possible through the combined will and initiatives of many leading business groups working with the ethos of a national coalition,” he said. (ANI)

IMF Praises India As ‘A Bright Spot In A Dark Horizon’

By LokMarg 13th October 2022

The International Monetary Fund on Thursday praised India as a “bright spot in a dark horizon” due to the rapidly-growing economy even in these difficult times, adding that the country will leave a mark on the world for years to come during next year’s presidency of G20.

Addressing a press briefing, IMF’s Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva said, “India deserves to be called a bright spot in this otherwise dark horizon because it has been a fast-growing economy, even during these difficult times, but most importantly, this growth is underpinned by structural reforms. “

The top IMF official made this comment on the sidelines of annual meetings of the Boards of Governors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) in Washington.

Praising India’s digital economy, Georgieva said that the remarkable success of digitisation in India is the digital ID that provides all services and support on the basis of “digital access.” She further added that digitisation is a huge factor in India’s success.

Responding to a question regarding her expectation from India while heading the G20 group, IMF Managing Director said, “The country (India) is now stepping into taking the lead on G20 from that position of strength which makes me strongly believe that we will see India leaving a mark on the world for years to come during next year’s presidency.”

The IMF top official said that India will leave a mark in the areas of digitalisation and digital money. She further added, “We know that we need regulation of crypto, we know that we need some more attention to cross border payments, we are proposing public investments in the infrastructure of the cross border payment platform.”

While addressing the presser, Georgieva said that India can bring more fairness to IMF. It has been a very strong voice and also financially strong, and could bring fair representation in IMF.

Talking about renewable energy, IMF’s Managing Director said, “India has really leapfrogged in terms of solar and other forms of renewable energy. So I very much look forward to next year and I am sure that it would make the people of India, the whole nearly one point four billion of them very proud.”

Answering a question about the G20 representative, IMF top official said, “India is the next chair of G20 and they are very committed to a strong quarter-based well resourced IMF and we might see more engagement that comes under their leadership.”

This praise for India’s economy comes as the country continues to maintain its position as the fastest-growing major economy in the world.

In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the IMF noted, “The outlook for India is for growth of 6.8 per cent in 2022, a 0.6 percentage point downgrade since the July forecast, reflecting a weaker-than-expected outturn in the second quarter (April-June) and more subdued external demand.”

In its July 2022 report, the IMF had pegged India’s GDP growth for 2022 at 7.4 per cent. The IMF’s latest projection on India’s GDP growth is lower than the 7 per cent growth pegged by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for the financial year 2022-23. (ANI)

How India Fares On Economic Indicators

By Kunal Bose 20th April 2022

Given even half a chance, politicians of all hues will indulge in breast beating. The country was witness to this once again when in the course of 2022-23 budget presentation finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman claimed India’s expected GDP (gross domestic product) growth of 9.2 per cent during 2021-22 would be highest among all large economies. This “sharp recovery and rebound of the economy is reflective of our country’s strong resilience.” In the meantime, however, the Manila headquartered Asian Development Bank in its recently released ‘Asian Development Outlook 2022’ report says India’s GDP last year ‘likely’ grew 8.9 per cent. Mark the word likely in ADB’s calculation.

Whatever 2021-22 growth is finally recorded, Sitharaman could always say in her defence that she presented the budget two months before the closure of financial year and she was only referring to advance estimates. A Trinamool Congress MP was certainly not fair in saying the FM was speaking with ‘fork tongued’ in making such a tall claim for the economy under her charge. No doubt she was boastful, for last year’s growth should ideally be seen against the background of GDP slipping 6.6 per cent in 2020-21. And the 2019-20 GDP growth was a dispiriting 3.7 per cent, very closely approximating the Hindu rate of growth coined by economist Raj Krishna.

The whole of 2019-20 when the bite of Covid-19 pandemic manifested in a series of deadly infections, lockdowns, supply chain disruptions and large-scale migration of labourers to their villages and small towns suffering in the process unbearable hardships was a washout for all economies and India was not an exception. Even while fears of new Covid waves remained throughout the year that closed in March 2021, any relief on that count was negated by high rates of inflation.

Retail inflation, as measured by consumer price index combined (CPI-C) was 6.6 per cent during 2020-21, breaching the Laxman Rekha or threshold level of 6 per cent. But with the revival of economic activities in the post Covid 2021, high inflation became a global phenomenon. For example, among developed countries, the US experienced inflation of 7 per cent in December 2021, the highest since 1982 and in the emerging economic bloc, Brazil suffered price rise of 10.1 per cent in the same month. Expectedly inflation at the rate of 6.6per cent became a source of major popular discontent leading New Delhi to take supply side measures and that tamed it to 5.2 per cent in 2020-21 till December.

But any comfort on inflation front unfortunately for the government and the masses proved short lived. Energy prices were already high when President Vladimir Putin sent his troops to Ukraine in an act of aggression on February 24. That sent oil and gas prices through the roof. As oil and gas and aviation turbine fuel invite very excise duty and also stiff levies at the state level, the two commodities not being covered by GST (goods and services tax), their prices are now greatly stoking inflation. Look at prevailing domestic LPG prices from PPP (purchasing power parity) dollar angle, truly reflecting the local currency’s purchasing power and the income level of average Indian, these are the highest in the world. As for petrol, we pay the third highest price only after Sudan and Laos. Indian oil marketing companies have started buying Russian crude at discounted rates.

As is to be expected, Indian buying of Russian crude has not gone down well with Western nations sanctioning the aggressor country on a growing number of counts. For example, the US has banned all energy supplies from Russia and the UK is working on phasing out oil and coal of that origin by yearend. Whatever sins Russia may be committing, India has deep political and economic ties with that country and the world is aware of that. India has served notice that it will continue to buy crude oil from Russia to protect its own economy.

In any case, fuel prices continuing to rise to new record levels are having an inevitable domino effect with food, edible oils and stationery prices getting revised periodically in sync. A survey conducted by the leading Bengali daily Anandabazar Patrika of families in the monthly income bracket of ₹15,000 to ₹45,000 about how they are coping with the sudden major spurt in inflation found one common answer that even after doing with less of every single item of food and other daily necessities, their savings are going for a toss. Some have lost the capacity to save. Others have started using up what they saved in the past. Experiences of families with identical income or even a little more in other parts of the country are either faring the same or even worse. If this is the condition of people with a regular income, whatever is the size, then think how badly the ones who lost their jobs during the Covid and never got them back or whose deep salary cuts are still to be restored are doing.

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Mercifully, the unemployment rate, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), has started declining with economic activities slowly gathering steam. CMIE’s monthly time series data shows unemployment rate was down to 7.6 per cent in March from 8.10 per cent in February. Economist Abhirup Sarkar, however, makes the pertinent observation that even “this unemployment rate is high for India which is a poor country. Poor people, particularly in rural areas cannot afford to remain unemployed, for which they are taking up any job that comes their way.”

Even while the overall national unemployment rate continues to fall, the ranks of unemployed in some states remain worryingly high ranging from 14.4 per cent for Bihar to 26.7 per cent for Haryana. The accepted fact remains inflation has a negative impact on growth and real per capita income. Inflation is not neutral. In no case does it support growth. That is why on the occasion of release of monetary policy the other day, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Shaktikanta Das said: “In the sequence of priorities we have now put inflation before growth. For the last three years starting February 2019, we had put growth ahead of inflation in the sequence. This time we have revised that because we thought that the time is appropriate and that is something which needs to be done.”

Largely caused by Ukrainian war, the inflation outlook has worsened globally as also for India. RBI has revised upward its inflation forecast for 2022-23 to 5.7 per cent from the earlier 4.5 per cent. If the war persists and sanctions further tightened, raging inflation will not be doused. In fact, inflation here could very well cross the Laxman Rekha as the year progresses. If inflation stays this high what option could be there for RBI but to cut this year’s growth forecast to 7.2 per cent from the earlier 7.8 per cent. Inflation and growth outlook being so fluid, Das’ observation that “we are not hostage to any rulebook and no action is off the table when the need of the hour is to safeguard the economy,” is an important pointer to RBI monetary policy staying flexible.

Commodity prices across the board from oil to steel to aluminium and to copper have all significantly appreciated. This is particularly pinching for the micro, small and medium (MSME) sector, which has a share of around 30 per cent of GDP and provides employment to 111 million. High input prices have pushed up working capital requirements of the sector. Will that incremental financial accommodation be available from banks? Unlike large enterprises, most MSMEs don’t have reserves to fall back upon. New Delhi must see that the MSME sector having a share of close to 50 per cent of total national exports is able to walk through difficult times unscathed.

Industry as a whole has welcomed the government investing heavily in infrastructure projects creating demand for products of a host of industries. The combination of mega capital expenditure programme that hopefully will bring Indian infrastructure close to world class resulting in marked fall in logistical cost and supply side measures is the response expected from the government. Private sector too is not found wanting in announcing major investments and this is led by the steel industry with investment commitment of over ₹1,000 billion in new capacity building.

In the challenging circumstances, Indian farmers well deserve a pat on their back for agriculture and allied industries are expected to have recorded growth of 3.9 per cent in 2021-22 against 3.6 per cent in the previous year. There is no promise that the coming days will bring any relief. One may, however, see a silver lining in the Economic observation: “Despite all the disruptions caused by the global pandemic, India’s balance of payments remained in surplus throughout the last two years. This allowed the Reserve Bank of India to keep accumulating foreign exchange reserves (they stood at US$634 billion on 31st December 2021). This is equivalent to 13.2 months of merchandise imports and is higher than the country’s external debt. The combination of high foreign exchange reserves, sustained foreign direct investment, and rising export earnings will provide an adequate buffer against possible global liquidity tapering in 2022-23.”