As The Hunter Becomes The Hunted

Do you remember the sinister White Vans without number plates?

Do you indeed remember the death squad white vans on the streets of Colombo and Jaffna in Sri Lanka, which would suddenly and inevitably appear from nowhere, pick up targeted individuals and disappear? And as the vans would disappear so would the people picked up in public spaces, outside courts coming for trial, inside campuses, right inside market places. The nameless white vans, as the nameless death squads, under the regime of an ever-smiling Mahinda Rajapaksa. The extra-constitutional mafia out in the open and no one could do a damn. Men and women disappeared. Some dead bodies were discovered. Others just vanished into the blue.

The Rajapaksa regime and its police and army would obviously deny any links with the white vans, and their 5 Ws and one H. Kidnappings? Abductions? Disappearances? Torture? Murders in cold blood? So what happened? Did anything at all happen?

Leena Manimekalai: does the name trigger a recent poster memory? Yes, the filmmaker and actor who did the performance-documentary dressed as the goddess of the night on the streets of Toronto and celebrated a film on Kali. (See Those Upset With Kaali Poster Know Little About Divine Imagery). Around 2013, she made a difficult and dangerous film called the White Van Stories, travelling across in this sublime tear drop island surrounded by the sea. A country ravaged by bloody ethnic, communal and religious divides, with the majority community backed by an aggressive Buddhism, almost like that in Myanmar, and patronized by the State, thereby observing all the principles of supremacist racism against the minorities, namely, the Tamils, Muslims, Christians, and, of course, the Leftists, Che Guevarists and Trotskyists.

Leena documented the stories of the disappeared in what would be totally adverse ground conditions with a hostile regime at the helm, amidst a totalitarian surveillance of Orwellian proportions. She travelled across the provinces in the south, east and north. She filmed the stories of the families whose loved ones had simply vanished from the face of the earth. Almost like what happened in Punjab and Kashmir. Or in Bosnia-Herzegovnia, right under the nose of Europe. Indeed, there would be no resolution, no reconciliation, no peace, till they would know the fate of their loved ones – will they ever return?

Leena was then reportedly told to leave the country. She persisted. Her incredibly tragic, disturbing and brave film was premiered on Channel 4. Said Leena: “The making of White Van Stories was not a scripted journey. It was rather mystical. Maybe my constant urge to tell stories that otherwise had been forgotten pointed me towards that direction.”

For instance, the BBC reported (March, 2012): “Amid fresh moves in the UN’s Human Rights Council to hold Sri Lanka to account, the BBC’s Charles Haviland in Colombo reports on a rise in sinister abductions by anonymous squads in white vans…”

“At a small shrine in her home, Shiromani lights a candle and rings a bell, offering prayers to the Hindu deities. She has few consolations now. Her life has been a nightmare since her husband, Ramasamy Prabagaran, a Tamil businessman, was snatched by eight men outside their front door last month, in front of Shiromani and their three-year-old daughter, and taken away in a white van. ‘He was screaming, calling for help, hanging on to the gate,” Shiromani said tearfully…There were people and vehicles in the street but no-one came to help as they had T56 guns and pistols. They pushed me down. I pleaded: ‘Sir, don’t do anything’.”

The vehicle disappeared.  And with it, her husband.

Those were also the days of invisible and overt media censorship. Editors in India just could not commission articles or ground reports from Sri Lanka. Journalists would be afraid to write. Several went into hiding or exile.

Earlier, on May 19, 2009, Vellupillai Prabhakharan, the feared leader of the Tamil Tigers (LTTE) was shot dead in North Sri Lanka, after three decades of a bloody civil and guerilla war in which thousands across both sides were killed, including top Sri Lankan leaders. Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated on May 21, 1991, at the behest of Prabhakaran by suicide bombers at Sriperumbudur in Tamil Nada, as an act of the revenge against India for sending the IPKF, the Indian Peace Keeping Force, which was also accused by the Tamil Tigers of inflicting atrocities on Tamils.

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Prabhakaran, who once reportedly idealized Che Guevara, was no democrat. He had literally wiped out all Tamil opposition to the regime, underground and overground, and chose to speak only the language of the gun and violence. Indeed, his entire family was wiped out, allegedly, after his killing. Mahinda Rajapaksa was then at the helm of affairs, rejoicing a huge burst of Sinhalese pride, as the bloodshed continued, even as innocent Tamil citizens got butchered, inside hospitals and in towns and villages, and even some of them walked with a white flag to surrender. Scores of refugee camps emerged all over Jaffna and in the neighbourhood, and also horrible tales of murder, torture and assaults on men and women. There was an international uproar, but the Rajapaksa regime just could not be touched.

Since then, the Rajapaksa brothers, backed by the majoritarian Sinhalese, and aggressive Buddhists and the army establishment, have called the shots. Since then, a country which seemed self-reliant at one time, with a booming tourist economy, has slumped to a state in contemporary times that even Pat Cummins, the graceful Australian captain, even after an innings defeat at Galle, said that he feels deeply concerned about the situation in Sri Lanka, where its citizens are skipping meals, and not eating on alternate days. The truth is kids of the working class and the poor continue to starve with parents unable to provide even one meal a day.

With a $50 billion foreign debt, which could actually be many times more, severe shortage of food, fuel, cooking gas, medicine etc, for many months, mass unemployment and mass hunger, the Rajapaksas could never even imagine that they would have to run for their lives after leaving their opulent British era palaces to the peaceful protesters. Protesters have converged in Colombo on trains, buses, trucks, walking for miles, demanding that the brothers be held accountable.

Gotabyaya Rajapaksa escaped with his wife on the night of July 12 on a military jet. It only gets to show how the military establishment is still in cahoots with this corrupt and cruel regime. The other brothers are in nameless locations, apparently still holding on to huge amount of wealth in the country and abroad. Protected by the armed forces, it remains a conjecture as to what will be their fate.

If anything, it all confirms the historical lesson that one day miscellaneous dictators, who seem infallible and absolute at one time, too must bite the dust. Reminds us of Batista in Cuba, Causescu in Romania, Jaruzelski in Poland, Idi Amin in Uganda, and Adolf Hitler in Nazi Germany, among others.

There are other lessons. That racist and communal majoritarianism, the State-backed fascism and violent religious polarization cannot be the glue for dictators forever when the economy is in a quagmire and the poor, middle class and the young, all are fed up with the corruption and the injustice.

The Aragalaya movement of concerned and independent citizens, online and door to door, has catalysed and consolidated this massive uprising which continues to this day. They have categorically stated that they want an interim government without the ruling party, and no all-party dispensation. This also proves that this is perhaps the first such spontaneous revolution in the 21st century led by the ordinary people without any ideological or theoretical paradigm or a textbook manifesto, and no organized leadership whatsoever. In that sense, the people of Sri Lanka have shown the way, not only to the world, but also to its neighbours in the subcontinent.

Surrounded By Troubled Neighbourhood

The recent regional economic and political crises in south Asia, most of them in immediate neighbours of India, have raised concern amongst the Indian establishment. The economic turbulence in Sri Lanka, Nepal and Maldives and the political turmoil in Pakistan may affect India manifold.

The economic impact of the various crises is expected to begin manifesting themselves soon, if governments of those countries fail to address the crises quickly.

To accord priority to India’s neighbours in their international activities, programmes and projects, was stressed at the first ever Inter-Ministerial Coordination Group (IMCG) meeting organised on April 12 in New Delhi.

Sri Lanka’s Economic Woes

The economic turmoil in Sri Lanka is currently viewed as the most pressing foreign challenge by the MEA with diplomatic and trade ramifications.

Over the years the Sri Lankan economy has failed to attract much foreign direct investment or spread its export basket, though it has transitioned into an upper-middle income country.

For most part, Sri Lankan growth was sustained through international sovereign bonds and expensive short-term external borrowing. These funds were channelled into education, infrastructure, and healthcare, besides maintaining financial liquidity and promoting better macroeconomic policy.

However, by April 2021, Sri Lanka’s external debt had touched $35 billion. In March, inflation zoomed to 17.5%, the highest since 2015, and forex reserves dwindled to $1.9 billion, enough only for a month’s imports.

Its debt-to-GDP ratio stands at an alarming 120%. Not surprisingly, on April 12, the government defaulted on all its outstanding foreign dues. The country has to repay $4 billion in debt this year.

Deep political and economic mayhem has followed, as there is no money to pay for food and fuel imports. Protests have broken out countrywide.

While India is under pressure to continue supporting the island country through a series of lines of credit, political dialogue with the administration of Sri Lankan Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa has not yielded results. While protests rock Sri Lanka demanding Rajapaksa’s resignation, he has resisted both political as well as economic change by spurring plans of urgent economic reforms.

Nepal’s Economy Falters

Nepalese finance minister Janardan Sharma on 16 April asked fellow Nepalese citizens living abroad to deposit funds in domestic banks as part of efforts to ensure the financial system has enough liquidity and to preserve foreign exchange reserves.

By depositing their savings in Nepal, overseas Nepalese would continue to “maintain their link as well as benefit from 6 to 7 per cent interest” offered by Nepali banks, Sharma said.

Though Sharma maintained that the Nepalese economy did not face a crisis and Nepal’s situation could not be compared with Sri Lanka, the fact is that the Himalayan kingdom is facing its worst economic crisis in decades and increasing anti-government protests.

In Nepal, remittances by overseas workers, which constitute nearly a quarter of the economy are crucial for external payments, they fell 3 per cent to US$5.3 billion between mid-July to mid-March, compared with a 5 per cent increase in the same period a year earlier.

Pakistan Politics

The political turmoil in Pakistan has caused a stir in India’s MEA, yet many believe that it may prove to be a positive development. The country’s new prime minister, like his elder brother and former prime minister, is essentially a businessman and he may try to salvage the ties between the two countries by boosting trade amongst them, as his brother tried in the past. Reports speak of a large section of the traders favouring reopening bilateral trade ties with India.

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Pakistani importers, especially of cotton, textiles, pharmaceuticals and chemicals and exporters of dry fruits and handicrafts are keen on the border being open once more, officials said. They added that the government expects the thaw in bilateral relations to begin from this if they happen at all.

Is China To Be Blamed?

Currently many theorists have blamed Sri Lanka’s economic relations with China as the main driver behind the crisis. This has been called “debt-trap diplomacy” by the Untied States.

However, in reality loans from China accounted for only about 10 per cent of Sri Lanka’s total foreign debt in 2020. In addition defaults over China’s infrastructure-related loans to Sri Lanka, especially the financing of the Hambantota port, are being cited as factors contributing to the crisis.

But the facts don’t add up. The Chinese Exim Bank financed the construction of the Hambantota port. As it was running in losses, the Sri Lankan government leased out the port for 99 years to the Chinese Merchant’s Group, which paid Sri Lanka US$1.12 billion. So in reality it actually bolstered Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange reserves by US$1.12 billion.

The situation turned bad due to two economic shocks in 2019. First, there was a series of bomb blasts in churches and luxury hotels in Colombo in April 2019. These led to a steep decline in tourist arrivals, a major source of foreign exchange earning for the country. 

Second, the new Gotabaya government carried out irrational tax reforms. About 2 per cent of the gross domestic product was lost in revenues because of these tax cuts.

Thirdly, ill thought out agricultural policies led to a drastic fall in agricultural production making more imports necessary. Due to lower export incomes, there was less money available to import food and food shortages arose.

Lastly, Sri Lanka might be forced to follow a deflationary fiscal policy, which may further limit the prospects of economic revival.

Though the situation in every country may seem different, yet they may have a cumulative bearing on India in the near future. It might be looked up to, to act as a big brother by Sri Lanka and Nepal. As regards to Pakistan it may prove to be a case for caution both militarily and politically, but indeed the times ahead seem to be challenging for the Indian foreign policy deliverers.

Though the Indian economy overall seems resilient to the external forces, yet a word of caution to some Indian states. Some of these states may have the makings of a crisis, due to their populist policies. A recent report states that most of the non-BJP ruled states, such as Punjab, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal may end up wrecking their economies, which are under strain due to the populist policies being implemented there.

So, in the near future Indian government may have to deal with both external and internal financial woes.

(Asad Mirza is a political commentator based in New Delhi. He writes on issues related to Muslims, education, geopolitics and interfaith)