Tag: US Presidential Elections 2024

Harris Loses or Trump Genocide Wins

Harris Loses or Trump, Genocide Wins

By Amit Sengupta

The polls in the USA, slated for November 5, 2024, is now on a tight rope. Latest surveys have predicted a neck-to-neck fight between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. There are also indications that in the final instance, Trump might just about make it, given the many reasons behind his steadfast popularity, especially among the White male population of America, including the working class. So much so, even a certain section of Afro-Americans, the Blacks, seems to be turning his way.

That is why the Democrats have roped in Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, including Michele Obama, in a last-ditch effort. No one knows if they will succeed, considering their bad track records when they were at the helm for long periods, especially Obama, who came riding a huge utopian high of ‘yes we can’, and who betrayed most of the promises he made, especially to the marginalized population of Afro-Americans.

Either which way, will the world become any better if this or that candidate wins? Harris or Trump?

As a journalist, I covered the American elections in 2016 in New York and Boston, and spoke to a wide-range of people. The young, educated and millennials hated Hillary Clinton, for the wars she had waged and the ghastly murder of Muammar Gaddafi as a public spectacle, among other things, but hated Trump in equal measure. Barack Obama was no more the hero he once was.

Their first choice, ‘Leftist’ Bernie Sanders, was not allowed to be the presidential candidate – despite a huge support base – by certain powerful lobbies, including, reportedly, Obama, who backed Clinton. When Trump won, there was a wave of depression across the land. Young and old, driven by anxiety, were in tears. Trump had arrived to ‘Make America Great Again’.

The latest joke on social media these days is that Harris-supporters can keep calling him a racist/supremacist, until the ‘ethnic cleansing’ is over and done with in Gaza!

The fact is that the Joe Biden and Kamala Harris establishment has backed Benjamin Netanyahu to the hilt with weapons, bombs and billions, and have chosen to look the other way while the genocide in Gaza was in full swing, despite the ritualistic homilies.

For the record, it’s going to be 50,000 dead soon, including 20,000 children, and an unknown number still under the rubble.

For the record, ethnic cleansing, resembling the nightmares of the Holocaust, is right now in full swing in Northern Gaza. Tens of thousands of people are being bombed, maimed, butchered yet again, including inside hospitals and refugee camps, those alive under the rubble are not allowed to come out, doctors, volunteers and nurses have been killed, 171 plus journalists have been murdered, starvation, thirst and epidemics are stalking the trapped and condemned people, aid is not allowed to come in, even as a trickle, scores of men and young boys have been detained and taken to unknown destinations, and, yet another mass exodus is happening in this ravaged landscape pushed by armed tanks, while the world watches in stunned silence, impotence, and complicity.

Especially Harris and Trump, and their fanatic supporters.

So, will things change in Gaza if either of them win?

That is the uncanny question which is stalking the political subconscious of all sensitive people across the world, who, still believe, that it is possible to move away from the repetitive and vicious cycle of barbarism, on to the finer and more refined nuances of civilization and culture. They include, certainly, the thousands of students and other people who protested against the genocide in Gaza, and demanded an immediate ceasefire and release of the Israeli hostages, across America, and all over the world.

ALSO READ: US Elections And The World Peace

Besides, those backing Kamala Harris with her Indian, Asian and African origins, and as the first possible woman president of the USA, seem to know all about Trump – and it is there to be seen in each rally of his campaign. The crass, insensitive and  masculine language, the racist ideology, the vitriolic, anti-immigrant rhetoric, and the mass phobia against ‘outsiders’.

Meanwhile, some of his former top aides, have come out against Trump. It has been claimed that he has ‘fascist and dictatorial’ tendencies, that he looks down at war veterans who were caught in the battlefield,  or, those who have been disabled in action, and that he might actually use the military against American citizens.

John Kelly is a former four-star general and was the longest serving chief of staff of Trump. He told The New York Times that Trump “preferred the dictator approach”, fits into the concept of a “fascist”, disliked the American Constitution, and threatened to use the military against American citizens whom he considered his enemies. According to him, Trump seems to have an obsessive fascination for Adolf Hitler, and often seemed to want American generals to obey his command as the Nazi generals used to obey Hitler.

 Kelly told The Atlantic that Trump wished his military personnel showed him the same deference Hitler’s Nazi generals showed him.

“Do you mean Bismarck’s generals?” Kelly asked Trump. He added, “I mean, I knew he didn’t know who Bismarck was, or about the Franco-Prussian War. I said, ‘Do you mean the kaiser’s generals? Surely you can’t mean Hitler’s generals?’ And he said, ‘Yeah, yeah, Hitler’s generals.’ I explained to him that Rommel had to commit suicide after taking part in a plot against Hitler.”

(It is not clear if he had also explained that there were some major attempts by generals and soldiers in Hitler’s army who tried to stage a coup, or assassinate Hitler. Most of them were caught and executed.)

The point is, a large number of white Americans, including women, are fanatic supporters of Trump precisely because of these reasons! They want him as that masculine, macho, misogynist, who revels in indulging in that particular kind of language! They want him as a dictator and a fascist. They want him to clamp down on dissenters and ‘Leftists’ – with Harris being dubbed as a neo-Marxist by Trump. And they want Trump to close down the borders, hound out the immigrants and their children, and ‘Make America Great Again’! For some, it actually means, ‘Make America White Again’!

As this reporter found out in 2016, many of them hide within their deepest hearts the insatiable desire that ‘slave trade’ should come back, that Afro-Americans, among others, should be treated as second class citizens, and that what the whites did, in terms of organized carnage and elimination, to the original, native and indigenous inhabitants of this land, was obviously correct.

In their warped minds, the short history of American colonialism and occupation, genocide and slave trade, was the golden, utopian past, which should be resurrected. And only Trump, the real estate tycoon, can do that.

The truth is that America is not a great nation, as their politicians claim. It never was. Across the world, it is the American establishment, which has, over the years, propped up miscellaneous dictatorships, banana republics, tin-pot fascists (as it was in Latin America), apartheid regimes (as it was in South Africa, with Nelson Mandela dubbed as a terrorist), totalitarian monarchies (as in the Middle East), and rogue genocidal regimes such as the one in Tel Aviv.

Indeed, Israel is the ‘Nazi operator’ of the US (and its Western allies) in the Middle East, backed by powerful lobbies in America, and it has continued to do now what it has been doing in the past – mass murders of innocents and targeted assassinations of opponents. None of them really believe in the principles of secular, modern, liberal, egalitarian democracy, especially when it comes to rest of the world.

So Harris or Trump, does it really matter?

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Can Kamala Harris Turn Euphoria Into Votes?

Can Kamala Harris Turn Euphoria Into Votes?

By Sanjoy Narayan

To see how sharply politics has polarised America, you only need to compare the highlights of the national conventions by each of the nation’s two political parties, the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. Unlike in many other countries, these two parties have dominated US politics since the mid-1880s. At their national conventions, held recently, each party officially confirmed its nominees who are contesting this Presidential election. On the Democratic ticket, it is Kamala Harris, the sitting US vice-president, and on the Republican ticket, it is former President Donald Trump. 

The main purpose of the conventions, held every four years (which is the term of a US President), is to officially nominate a candidate but the larger effect that these usually splashy, multi-day affairs have is the demonstration of strength, power, and the popularity that the optics of these events provide. The Republican convention was held in July at Milwaukee in the middle-American state of Wisconsin; the Democratic convention was held last week in Chicago.

The contrast between the two couldn’t be starker.

To Indian voters, the US’ two-party system as well as the way the US elects its President (it is determined by a popular vote as well as an electoral college) can seem counter-intuitive. After all, India has six national political parties, 57 regional state parties, and 2,764 unrecognised but registered political parties. All registered parties contesting elections need to choose a symbol from a list of available symbols offered by India’s election commission. Americans would likely have as much trouble wrapping their heads around that system as Indians have to do so with theirs!

Yet, in some ways, the US two-party system can make it easier to discern the growing divisiveness and political polarisation in the US. To get a sense of that, the events, speeches, and, importantly, the mood at each of the conventions can be good indicators.

Jubilation and Accusations

At the four-day Democratic national convention, the mood was palpably upbeat. That is significant because till recently, the mood among Democrats was markedly low. Earlier this year, when the campaigning by both sides began, the Democratic candidate was sitting President Joe Biden and his Republican opponent was Trump. Most polls then showed Trump leading Biden, albeit by a small margin. 

Things changed on July 21 when Biden decided to drop out of the race and endorsed vice-president Harris instead. Since then Harris, a woman with Indian and Jamaican ancestry, has clawed back in the approval ratings and now enjoys a small lead over Trump. 

At her party’s convention, attended by 7000 delegates and telecast to millions nationally, a spirit of overwhelming euphoria prevailed. Speeches endorsing Harris were made by Biden, and two former Presidents, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, as well as a star-studded list of politicians and celebrities. Many who attended or watched found the speakers to be articulate, powerful, and inspiring. Harris’ own speech, as well as that of her running mate, Tim Walz, talked of hope and change and a more just and egalitarian future that would enhance the lives of all men and women without discrimination.

Showbiz and Hollywood has usually backed the Democratic Party and, at the event, personalities such as talk show host Oprah Winfrey spoke, and singers such as Stevie Wonder, John Legend, and Pink performed. There was a strong emphasis on race and gender equality, especially by former first lady Michelle Obama, and several other black and women speakers.

In contrast, at the earlier held Republican convention, which was equally well-attended, it was more form than substance. Trump and his running mate delivered speeches that often seemed like rants and personal attacks. Guest speakers were mainly white and included Hulk Hogan, a retired professional wrestler who indulged in raucous histrionics that included tearing off his shirt to reveal a Trump tank top that he was wearing underneath, and singer Kid Rock who has publicly affirmed his support for Trump and his policies.

At the Republican convention, which was held while Biden was still the nominee for Democrats, the focus was on inflation, immigration, and America’s role in ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. The general line was that the Biden administration had failed to check what, according to Trump, in the influx of millions of illegal immigrants who are mostly criminals and stealers of American jobs; that it had allowed inflation to soar; and that it was spending billions of dollars on international crises that the US should keep out of. In other words, garden variety xenophobia and nationalist populism. 

Mainstream Media Bias

To outside observers who glean their information from the US mainstream media to form their impressions and opinions, it could seem as if the US is heading for a Harris regime and that hope, optimism, and joy (an emotion that is associated with Harris’ bubbly personality) will prevail.

Conditioned by a predominantly pro-Democratic (and more particularly, anti-Trump) mainstream media, many Americans appear to believe that too. They think voters will choose Harris’ promises of delivering a government that treats all Americans equally and looks at issues such as abortion laws and women’s rights from a liberal point of view. And that they will reject Trump’s promises of deporting millions of immigrants, slashing taxes, and levying big tariffs on imports from countries such as China. 

The problem is that this is a view conditioned by the kind of coverage that the election campaign is getting from traditional media. In the US, most leading media outlets, newspapers as well as TV channels, are pro-Democrat. In a two-party system, this sort of a bias can have adverse consequences. First, it can constrain objective reportage or analysis. But more importantly, it can provide an inaccurate picture where readers and viewers find themselves in a silo where contrarian views, opinions and perceptions are largely missing. Thirdly, it can create a bubble with the perceptions of the people who are within it quite at odds with the actual reality. 

It’s a folly that is not new. In the run-up to the 2016 election, the discourse in US mainstream media had largely dismissed the possibility of a Trump victory. Yet, he defeated the Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton and became the 45th President. 

Observers often form their impression about America from what is happening in the big cities of the east and the west coast: the political buzz and the people’s pulse in cosmopolitan cities such as New York, Washington, Chicago, Los Angeles and other major urban centres. Yet, what happens between the coasts in what is sometimes referred to as Middle America goes unobserved. Trumpmania is most prevalent there. 

Then again there are questions of values. America has come a long way from an age where racial discrimination or gender bias was widespread but has it traversed enough ground? Many wouldn’t be so sure. In some of his speeches, ostensibly trying to woo the Black American voters, Trump has referred to how illegal immigrants are stealing “Black jobs”. 

That statement itself can be seen to reek of racism. In her speech at the Democratic convention, Michelle Obama pointedly referred to it when she asked: “Who’s going to tell him that the job he’s currently seeking might just be one of those ‘Black jobs?’”

Yet, among Trump’s traditional supporters as well as among some of his new supporters, including Black working class voters unhappy with the establishment, “Black jobs” can resonate, particularly when immigration is widely seen as a big problem affecting their lives.

Likewise, among many American voters, the idea of having a woman from an ethnic minority community as President could still be too radical despite the fact that 51-53% of registered voters are women.

Traditionally, national conventions are believed to have little impact on how the average American votes. Typically, they are congregations of the loyal. The real grind begins after the conventions are over when both sides have to drive their campaigns to get popular votes as well as that of the electoral college. How things go in some swing states also determine who could eventually win. This year, a handful of America’s 50 states, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina, will be the decisive states where the contest is likely to be close.

Last weekend, the average of several polls showed Harris leading with 48.4% support of those surveyed, while Trump trailed with 45.3%. That is still quite close. With around 70 days left for the election on November 5, things could indeed change but what is most likely is a contest that will eventually go down to the wire.

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A Guide to the US Elections

A Foreigner’s (Bizarre) Guide to the US Elections

By Sanjoy Narayan

To a foreign observer with little or no skin in the game, the events that are unfolding during the countdown to the US presidential elections can seem absurd, surreal, or apocalyptic, depending on an individual’s sensitivities and perception. Those responses mainly have to do with the dramatis personae in the upcoming fray. Rarely has a political event of such significance–for the US as well as the world–have had politicians of the kind of calibre demonstrated by Donald Trump and his running mate, J.D. Vance (the Republican nominees for President and Vice-President) and Kamala Harris and Tim Walz (the Democratic nominees).

Let’s take Trump first, mainly because he is a more known entity than the others and he was the 45th President of the US who served from 2017 to 2021. A real estate agent and reality TV celebrity, Trump’s tenure was marked by controversy and his presidency was sharply polarising.

Yet, he achieved much. He cut taxes for corporations and individuals; he reformed the US criminal justice system, including prisons and sentencing laws; he brokered normalisation agreements between Israel and several Arab states; and he presided over low unemployment rates, low inflation, and pre-pandemic stock market gains.

These were sullied by the negatives, though. Trump faced criticism for downplaying the pandemic’s severity and mixed messaging on public health measures; his measures to counter immigration, such as the travel ban and family separation policy at the southern border, significantly reduced both legal and illegal immigration but critics said it was unnecessarily harsh and damaged America’s image as a welcoming nation.

On other issues such as climate change, Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement and rolled back environmental regulations. The US’ foreign relationships with traditional allies and international organisations such as NATO got strained as Trump’s policies were more domestic-focused.

Trump was also the first president to be impeached twice by the House of Representatives, and he was criticised for his role in the events leading up to the Capitol riots on January 6, 2021, the day Congress was set to certify Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election. Trump, who was the President then, had been claiming, without evidence, that the election was “stolen” due to widespread fraud, and he held a rally near the White House where he encouraged supporters to march to the Capitol.

As Trump campaigns for the presidency, he faces several court cases, including charges of making hush money payments to an adult film actress; for retaining classified documents at his residence; for interfering in the 2020 elections; and for inciting the Capitol riots.

If that sort of a track record and baggage of legal problems makes Trump look like a particularly bad actor in the dramatis personae in the presidential election fray, let’s take a look at Harris.

Surprisingly, Trump, actually, might look better in comparison to his main rival, Vice-President Harris, the presidential candidate for the Democrats

Harris, who is expected to be confirmed as candidate at her party’s national convention in Chicago (August 19-22), is a late entrant to the race. She was endorsed by incumbent President Joe Biden on July 21 after he withdrew from the race. Biden, 81, was showing distinct signs of cognitive disabilities, most likely related to his advanced age, and his late-stage withdrawal from the contest was prompted by his party’s leaders. The spectacle of his pathetic performance at a televised debate with Trump was the final blow to his ambition of winning a second term.

Harris has a few things going for her. She will be 60 in October and, therefore, is much younger than Trump, who is 78 and, although visibly less infirm than Biden, he shows definite signs that betray age-related debilities. Being a woman of mixed ethnicity (she is of half-Indian and half-Jamaican ancestry), Harris enjoys a cachet of support from some voter groups, particularly Black women.

A lawyer who has been a former California attorney general, and a senator from that state, Harris, who was picked by Biden as his running mate in 2020, also has liberal credentials and is known for her progressive political stances. She is pro-abortion, and an upholder of women’s rights and gender equality; also, she is a big votary of civil rights and equality for all.

However, Harris is an unproven entity. A US Vice-President’s role is of little consequence. Of course, the VP is first in line of succession to the presidency and in the Senate, the upper house of Congress, has the power to cast a tie-breaking vote. Yet, while the President might delegate some responsibilities to his VP, in effect, the role is more symbolic than of consequence.

In public meetings since she was endorsed by Biden, Harris’ speeches and statements seem to be more form than substance. In contrast to Trump who, at rallies, bangs on about how America is doomed on a path to destruction and only he can save the country, Harris is bubbly and effusive with an infectious laughter and a folksy, “I’m one of you” spirit.

American mainstream media is notoriously biased and anti-Trump. In fact, in a practice that might seem quite strange in other countries, leading newspapers and magazines openly endorse a candidate before the elections. For example, since it was founded in 1851, the New York Times has endorsed a candidate for President of the US in every election held during its history. In 2012, it endorsed Barack Obama who won, in 2016, it endorsed Hillary Clinton who lost; in 2020, it endorsed Joe Biden who won; and in 2024, once Harris is officially nominated, it will likely endorse her.

It is not surprising, therefore, that America’s media are exulting over Harris. When Biden showed signs of debility (even before the disastrous debate), few in the media called him out for that. Now, even when Harris backtracks on the views she held in the past, it rarely raises an eyebrow. A green energy champion, Harris has for long been against fracking to extract oil and gas. Recently, however, after Trump pledged that as President he was all for oil drilling to boost the economy, she backtracked on her stance and said she wouldn’t ban fracking. When Trump announced at his rallies that he would abolish tax on tips, a major source of income in the low-salary service industry, Harris soon picked up the cue and began saying the same thing. The media didn’t blink an eye.

Recently, when a well-known media personality, Alex Wagner, who hosts her own show on the MSNBC network, appeared on the Late Show with Stephen Colbert, a popular late night talk fixture, and was asked about Harris’ main strength, she said it was the “joy” that Harris embraced. Others in the media have counted among Harris’ strengths her loud and infectious laughter and her ability to dance well! Few have pointed out that her speeches are largely absent of any references to economic or foreign policy. 

Her past stance on subjects such as immigration (she supports a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and opposes aggressive deportation policies), gun control (she wants tougher laws), and taxation (she wants progressive taxation) are totally at odds with what Trump promises–he wants to deport illegal aliens; favours existing gun laws; and promises to cut taxes.

In fact, Harris and her running mate Walz, a former football coach, appear, at least to an outsiders such as a foreigner, as homebodies more suited to smalltime local politics, as in a city’s mayoral contest, rather than in a race for the presidency of the world’s most powerful nation whose head of state is a position that affects not only the US but the entire globe.

That is why to many the race for America’s presidency could seem bizarrely surreal. There is Trump who is acutely divisive and stands for an America that wants to look inwards, deport millions of immigrants, and pursue a policy that pays little heed to issues such as climate change. On the other side, there is Harris whose lack of experience and down-home jokiness is almost akin to naivete.

There are less than 80 days remaining before the elections and the process is not a simple one. There are two components to the US Presidential elections. First, there is the popular vote.

This is the total number of votes cast by individual citizens across the country. Second, there is the electoral college. Each of the USA’s 50 states has a number of electors based on its population. In most states, the candidate who wins the popular vote in that state receives all of its electoral votes. 

To win the presidency, a candidate needs to secure a majority of electoral votes (at least 270 out of 538), not necessarily the national popular vote. This means it’s possible to win the presidency while losing the national popular vote. In 2020, Biden won the election with 306 electoral votes and 51.3% of the national popular vote, compared to Trump’s 232 electoral votes and 46.9% of the popular vote. But, in 2016 Trump won with 304 of the 538 electoral votes, although the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, won the popular vote by a margin of 2.1%.

In the latest polls, Harris is leading Trump by a couple of percentage points–this is significant because when Biden was still in the race, he trailed Trump in the polls. Yet, as everywhere in the world, the US elections can be dashedly difficult things to predict. No one knows what will eventually happen in November. One thing, though: For those looking at the race from outside, it’s like an American sitcom on Netflix, probably with a much darker touch of comedy.

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Indians Are Going Crazy Over Kamala Harris

Why Indians Are Going Crazy Over Kamala Harris

By Sanjoy Narayan

The day after US President Joe Biden withdrew from the race to contest for a second term and endorsed his Vice-President Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party’s candidate in the coming elections in November, in Thulasendrapuram, a tiny village In Tamil Nadu around 300 km away from Chennai, community prayers began, with the head priest at the village temple paying homage to Dharmasastha, also known as LoTrd Ayyappan, the Hindu deity of truth and righteousness. The prayers, expected to to continue till election day, November 5, are being organised to wish Harris success in the elections.

Thulasendrapuram, which even many Indians will likely have difficulty in pronouncing correctly, leave alone finding on a map, is roughly 14,000 km from Washington D.C. Yet, it is the village from where Harris’ ancestors–at least one half of them–originate. Harris, 59, is half Indian. Her late mother Shyamala, a biologist, migrated to the US in her teens and her family originally is from that tiny village (population: around 350). 

Harris’ other half is Jamaican. Her father, Donald, an economist, migrated to the US in 1961. Although Harris was raised by her mother after her parents divorced, she identifies more with the African-American community than with Indians. 

Harris has occasionally visited India with her mother but her links to Thulasendrapuram are remote. That hasn’t stopped villagers there from swelling with pride. Who becomes the President of the US is certainly not going to affect their fortunes but the village is already festooned with huge posters and banners of Harris’s image and congratulatory messages in Tamil.

The spirit of celebration has spread across India, especially in the media as well as among citizens who see the possibility of an Indian origin person in the White House as a win. The phenomenon is not an isolated one. Every time a person of Indian origin–no matter how removed in reality he or she is from the country or how inconsequential their links with India might be–Indians appear to get excited and proud.

When Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2022, there was similar jubilation. In Sunak’s case, it was heightened by the fact that he is married to the daughter of one of India’s leading infotech tycoons, N.R. Narayana Murthy, the billionaire founder of Infosys. Sunak demitted office this year after his Conservative Party lost in the elections but media interest in him and his popularity among Indians continues.

Back in 2015, when Bobby Jindal, a son of Indian immigrants from Punjab, and former Governor of Louisiana, became a candidate for the presidency of the US, there was similar hype around him in Indian media, although Jindal, a Republican known for his conservatism, never really highlighted his origins nor any affinity for the country. More recently, when Nikki Haley (birth name: Nimarata), a daughter of Sikh immigrants, made an eventually unsuccessful bid for becoming the Republican candidate for the upcoming elections, interest in her campaign spiked in India.

Even if political leaders of Indian origins have little to do with their country of origin or ethnicity, Indians tend to get excited, sometimes irrationally. Such as in the case of Vivek Ramaswamy, a rich young technocrat and Republican who, like Haley, ran for candidacy of his party before Donald Trump was chosen as its candidate. Although the son of Indian immigrants, Ramswamy is a hardliner when it comes to immigration and is a vocal proponent of mass deportation and tighter rules for anyone, including Indians, who want to migrate to the US. Yet, when it was speculated that he could have a chance at winning the candidacy, the interest in his campaign was disproportionately high in India.

Why is it that Indians get so upbeat when anyone with ethnic roots to their country is seen to be successful in the politics of another country, particularly in the West?

Cultural Pride and Visibility

The excitement is part of a broader pattern in India, where achievements of people of Indian origin in other countries are often celebrated as a point of national and cultural pride. There are several reasons why they feel excited and proud when global leaders of Indian origin rise to prominent positions, even if those leaders don’t actively emphasise their Indian heritage.

For one, it’s a source of national and cultural pride to see someone with shared roots achieving success on a global stage. It is to many a validation of Indian potential and capabilities. It also provides a sense of representation and visibility for Indians in global affairs, which can be inspiring, especially for younger generations. 

For many decades, India’s place on the global scene was not prominent. There were few Indian success stories, particularly in global politics. That has changed. India’s importance in geopolitics has grown; there is a high visibility that Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoys in the world; and India is strategically more important in geopolitics, particularly for the US-led Western bloc.

In that context, success stories of Indian-origin political leaders in the West, who are considered as part of the Indian diaspora, can further burnish the country’s image. Such stories can also serve as motivation for Indians, showing that people with similar backgrounds can reach the highest levels of leadership in developed nations. Many Indians have family members or friends who have emigrated, so there’s often a sense of connection to the diaspora’s achievements. In the US, with a population of more than 4.9 million, Indian Americans make up approximately 1.35% of the country’s population and the biggest South Asian community.

Busting Stereotypes and Perceptions

Some Indians may also feel that having leaders of Indian origin in powerful positions could potentially benefit India indirectly through more favorable policies or increased cultural understanding, although there has been little evidence of such correlation between leaders and policies. 

Yet, these success stories can help challenge the stereotypes about Indians and South Asians. An Indian origin candidate in the US Presidential elections is likely to influence the perception of Indians in general and change existing narratives about the country and its citizens. 

Moreover, even if people of second and third-generation Indian origin do not actively promote their Indian heritage, many still relate to the challenges that their parents or even grandparents might have faced as immigrants. Kamala Harris rarely invokes her Indian heritage but her mother’s struggles and achievements in an alien land where she came as a teenager in the 1950s does influence her enough to talk about what she learnt while growing up. 

Why Indians Do Well in the West

Not everyone is over the top about the success of people such as Harris or Sunak. Some Indians are critical of this fandom. They argue that it reflects a colonised mentality, which tends to internalise ethnic, linguistic, or a cultural inferiority complex. India has suffered colonialism under the British for more than 200 years and that has had the effect on many into believing that the language and culture of the West are superior to one’s own. So if someone of Indian origin is seen to succeed in Western society, it is celebrated as a win even if such leaders themselves distance themselves from their own Indian heritage–for example, even though Nimarata became Nikki, or Piyush is known as Bobby. 

Yet, there are reasons why Indians, rather than other South Asians seem to be more successful in Western societies. For one, India has the world’s largest population and, therefore, sizably more immigrants who settle abroad, notably to the West. Second, India’s history as a British colony has left a linguistic legacy: widespread usage of English, which is an advantage in the English-speaking world.

Unlike China, India’s long-standing system of democracy makes it easier for Indian immigrants to adapt to and participate in political systems in other democracies such as the US. There is also a strong stress on higher education in many Indian families, often in fields valued in global leadership roles, such as law, business, and technology. 

Rise of Indian Global CEOs

The rise of Indians has been a bigger phenomenon in the global business scene than it has in western politics. According to one estimate, more than 35 global billion-dollar corporations have Indian origin CEOs. The trend has been a notable phenomenon. Consider, for instance, just a few of them: at Microsoft, Satya Nadella is the CEO; at Google/Alphabet, it is Sundar Pichai; at Adobe, it is Shantanu Narayen; at IBM, it is Arvind Krishna; at Chanel, it is Leena Nair; and at Starbucks, it is Laxman Narasimhan. The list, which is longer, is impressive.

It highlights the stress on education. Many Indian families prioritise higher education, often in fields like engineering, computer science, and business. It also demonstrates that many Indian professionals are able to adapt to different work cultures and have a strong work ethic, and showcases the leadership skills that Indians are able to inculcate.

The growing list of Indian origin executives is a matter of pride for many Indians. However, it is also a fact that many of these executives made it big because they chose to leave India. India has very few global corporations that dominate the world’s markets on the scale and extent to which the companies headed by some of these Indian CEOs do. An Indian Google, or an Indian Microsoft simply doesn’t exist. India’s infotech companies, including the one that Sunak’s father-in-law started, is, basically, an outfit that offers cheap offshore services and not high value-added infotech products. 

This has given rise to the perception that talented Indians do really well when they choose to leave their country and move to the West. That probably shouldn’t fire up the pride among the millions of those who live in India as much as it does.

Back in Thulasendrapuram, though, the festivities and prayers are believed to be continuing. Yet, even as many villagers are feeling proud about their connection to such a prominent global figure, it is worth noting that Harris has never visited their village and likely never will.

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Earth’s Year of Elections

2024 Will Be Earth’s Year of Elections. What Should You Expect?

By Sanjoy Narayan

This year could be the year of national elections on Earth. In 64 countries (plus the European Union), two billion humans or one in every four of the eight billion of us that populate the planet will be set to go to the polls. An estimated 1.16 billion of these voters will be from the South Asian countries of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, with India alone accounting for more than 900 million voters, which is 100 million more than the number that was eligible to vote in the previous national election held in 2019.

After you have wrapped your head around those staggering numbers, consider also how the outcomes of some of those elections could impact the state of the world here on our planet. Take the big ones first. The US will hold its presidential elections in November. As of now, indications are that former Republican President Donald Trump, who served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021, could be his party’s nominee for the 2024 election. Trump is facing a slew of legal problems but this does not seem to deter his supporters: with 52% of Republican voters or Republican-leaning independent voters, Trump is way ahead of his nearest rivals in the race for nomination.

If Trump, 77, is nominated, the face-off will likely be between him and the Democratic incumbent Joe Biden, 81. If Trump wins, as many analysts think he will if he is nominated, his policies and actions as President of the US will affect not only his country but also the state of the world. More on that soon. For now, turn to another election that will take place this year.

Two months from now, in March, Russia will go to the polls to elect a President. In all likelihood it will be Vladimir Putin who will be re-elected. Putin has been in charge of Russia since late 1999 or more than 21 years and is eligible for re-election this year, as a result of constitutional amendments that he orchestrated in 2020. The amendments reset his previous terms and allowed him to seek two more six-year terms, potentially extending his rule until 2036. Putin is 71 so, in theory, he can rule till he is 84.

Russia is a democracy only in theory. In reality it is an authoritarian state where elections are not free or fair. The Kremlin, Russia’s seat of power, controls the media, the security forces, and the election commission, and Putin has effectively suppressed all opposition, barred many of rivals from contesting the elections and either imprisoned dissenters or exiled them. 

A Trump-Putin Combo? If Putin is reelected, Russia will likely continue its aggressive foreign policy, especially in Ukraine and Eastern Europe, and face more international sanctions and isolation. Putin will also tighten his grip on domestic politics and suppress any dissent or opposition. If Trump is elected in 2024, the US will face more political and social turmoil, as Trump will try to overturn his 2020 election loss and pursue his populist agenda. Trump will also undermine democratic institutions and norms, and alienate many US allies and partners.

A Trump-Putin combo would mean that the world could face a more unstable and unpredictable geopolitical situation. Trump and Putin have a long history of mutual admiration and personal rapport, but their interests and agendas are often at odds. Trump could weaken NATO and other US alliances, while Putin could exploit the chaos and expand his influence in regions like Ukraine, Syria, and the Middle East. The risk of conflict and escalation between the two nuclear powers would increase, as well as the challenges for global cooperation on issues like climate change, human rights, and cybersecurity.

A third term for Modi? The biggest national elections this year will be in India, which has the largest electorate in the world, with over 900 million voters eligible to vote for the lower house of Parliament, Lok Sabha, which has 543 seats. India has a multi-party system, with two major alliances competing for power this year: the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.), led by the Indian National Congress (INC) and its president, Mallikarjun Kharge.

India’s elections are held in multiple phases, spanning over several weeks, to ensure security and logistical arrangements. In 2019, the elections were held in seven phases, from 11 April to 19 May. The schedule for 2024 is yet to be announced by the Election Commission of India (ECI).

India’s elections also involve millions of polling staff, security personnel, electronic voting machines, and observers. In 2019, there were over 10 lakh polling stations, 17.4 lakh voting machines, and 23 lakh security personnel deployed across the country.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is widely expected to win a third term in 2024, as he enjoys a strong popularity and because the Opposition is weak. In recent months, his party has scored significant victories in state elections, which could be an indication that voters’ support for it is strong.

A third term may see India becoming one of the top three economies in the world. India’s economy is one of the largest and fastest-growing in the world. According to the latest data from the World Bank, India’s nominal GDP was $3.73 trillion in 2023, making it the fifth-largest economy in the world after the USA, China, Japan, and Germany. India’s GDP growth rate was 7.6% in the second quarter of 2023-24, higher than most of the major economies.

India’s per capita income was $2,389 in 2022, which ranked 112th in the world. India’s per capita GDP on PPP basis was $8,379 in 2022, according to the World Bank. In comparison, China’s per capita GDP on PPP basis was $21,476 in 2022. This means that China’s per capita GDP on PPP basis was more than twice as high as India’s.

Prime Minister Modi faces some challenges such as poverty, inequality, infrastructure gaps, environmental issues, and fiscal deficits. However, during his tenure, which began in 2014, India has also undertaken several reforms and initiatives to boost its economic potential, such as the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the Make in India campaign, the Digital India program, and the Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan. India aims to become a $5 trillion economy by 2027 and a $10 trillion economy by 2032.

Led by Modi, India recently had a successful G20 presidency and a lunar mission. For a country of its size, it has also managed a satisfactory a post-COVID-19 recovery and achieved robust growth. India has also been part of a new Indo-Pacific alliance against China, along with the US, Australia, and Japan, to counter China’s expansionist ambitions and assert India’s role as a key player in the region.

In crisis areas such as the Russian aggression in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war, India has protected its own economic and political interests instead of taking sides. That sort of strategy could be expected to continue on the international front. Relations with China remain tense, though, especially on border disputes between the two countries although under Modi, the foreign policy targeted at China and Pakistan (with which there are continuing disputes on the western borders of the country) has been assertive.

Modi may, however, face some challenges in balancing the interests of different Indian states and regions, as well as in addressing the issues of social justice, environmental protection, and democratic rights.

Elections in the rest of South Asia. India’s neighbours, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, will also go to the polls this year. In Pakistan, elections are scheduled to be held in February but the Pakistan Senate has passed a resolution seeking to delay the elections due to security and weather concerns. The resolution is not binding and the final decision rests with the Election Commission of Pakistan. With the former Prime Minister Imran Khan in jail on corruption charges, the main contenders are the Pakistan Muslim League (N), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, and the Pakistan Peoples Party, led by former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari. In Pakistan, the army plays a key role in politics and the government and outcome of the election there will be keenly watched.

Elections will also take place this year in Bangladesh, where Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League has been in power since 2009 and where she is accused of silencing dissent and ruling with an authoritarian iron hand. She is expected to win another term.

India’s other neighbour, Sri Lanka, also goes to the polls this year. Two years ago, the then president of the island nation Gotabaya Rajapaksa was forced to flee his country after protests accused  him for the country’s worst economic crisis in 73 years. Inflation had soared and the nation had turned bankrupt leaving millions in the tiny country unable to get food, fuel or healthcare. That was when the current President Ranil Wickremesinghe took over. But elections haven’t been held in Sri Lanka since 2018 and if a date is finally announced for this year, all eyes will be on who gets the people’s mandate. Wickremesinghe, who helped get a loan from the International Monetary Fund and has led several reforms to get the economy back on track, will likely contest and hope for a second term.

Other notable elections in the world include Indonesia, where the current incumbent Joko Widodo (aka Jokowi) is ineligible due to term limits.

Besides this, there will be elections in Iran, South Korea, Panama, and several African Nations, including Rwanda, Libya, Mali, and Ghana. As I said, this year is the year of elections on Earth.

What If Trump Becomes Next US President!

What Will Become of the World if Donald Trump is the Next US Prez?

By Sanjoy Narayan

The focus in India, for the moment at least, is on the outcome of the elections in five states. Many believe that the results of the assembly elections this month in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram can indicate what could happen in the parliamentary elections in May 2024 when the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) (along with a few allies), which is completing its second term in government, will aim to win a third term at the Centre. Predicting elections can be a mug’s game because they can be unpredictable but 2024 is not just about elections in India. It is a year full of elections around the world, and the outcomes of some of them could have a profound impact across the world, India included.

In 2024, according to the Economist, there will be more than 70 elections in countries, which together have a population of 4.2 billion. That is more than half of the 8.04 billion that the United Nations estimates live on our planet. Of all of those elections, the one in America will probably have the biggest impact on the rest of the world.

The US presidential election is scheduled for November 5, 2024, which is nearly a year away but speculation and predictions about who could be the next person in the White House already abound. According to the latest polls and betting odds, former President Donald Trump is the favorite to win the Republican nomination and has a competitive chance of defeating President Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 rematch. Trump leads by small margins in battleground states and nationally, despite facing two impeachments and legal drama. There are several ongoing legal battles that he has to fight but this does not seem to bother his staunch supporters.

Among the Republican hopefuls, Trump has the highest approval rating among Republican voters, with more than 50% support in the national primary polls. His closest competitor, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, has fallen below 20% nationally. No other contender for the Republican nomination is at or above 10%.

On the other side, President Joe Biden will be running for reelection as the Democrat candidate but his chances are quite uncertain. Biden will turn 82 next year. His approval rating has been low. He has faced criticism on his handling of various issues: the Coronavirus pandemic, which America dealt with quite sloppily; the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, which led to a resurgence of the Taliban and the deterioration of human rights, especially for women and minorities; and logjams hindering lawmaking in the legislative process in the US legislature.

Biden also has to contend with the age factor that acts against him. Trump, who will be 78 next year, is not young either but there have been rumblings in the media and even in the Democratic Party that question Biden’s fitness–both physical and mental. Some Democrats would probably want to go with a fresh, and perhaps, younger candidate but there has been no alternative and with the campaigning on both sides already well underway, it may be too late to switch horses.

What then if Trump is indeed back in the White House for the second time as President of the US? It’s a complex question because he could impact America and the rest of the world in several ways. The world is witnessing several issues of critical importance. There is a war on between Russia and Ukraine for nearly two years since the former attacked the latter in February 2002; since October, Israel and the militant group, Hamas, have been at a war with the most horrific manifestations in Gaza; China has been consistently and steadily trying to put in place a “new global order” that aims at challenging the US and the West’s dominance in geopolitics; and an alignment of China with Russia, Iran, and other Arab world nations is emerging.

Against this landscape if a Trump regime is back in America, it could have a critical impact on the state of the world.

ALSO READ: An Indicted Trump Could Still Be US President

Trump is widely expected to further continue his America First strategy of foreign policy, diplomacy, and trade. What that means is he will focus on reducing US trade deficits by raising tariffs on imports; his policies could make America more unilateral and confrontational; and he could be more transactional rather than be driven by other objectives in dealing with foreign countries. This means America, which does the heavy lifting in alliances such as NATO, and organisations such as the UN, and the World Trade Organisation (WTO), could reduce its commitments to them and, thereby weaken them. As it could by retreating from its commitments to the Paris climate accord.

If a Trump regime (or for that matter any Republican regime that might be elected to power) reduces the commitment to NATO, it could jeopardise the future stability of Europe. Here’s how. According to Article 5 of its agreement, if a NATO country is attacked, it means that it is an attack on all members. This means that all NATO members will consider the attack as an act of self-defence and will take actions to assist the country attacked, including the use of armed force if necessary. Trump’s position on Article 5 of NATO has been unclear and inconsistent.

In March 2016, before he became President, he said that NATO was obsolete and that Russia no longer posed the threat the Soviet Union did. He also questioned whether he would protect smaller states from Russia if they did not pay their fair share.

Trump’s support for Article 5 is conditional and dependent on his perception of NATO’s relevance and performance. He has not consistently expressed his commitment to the alliance and its core tenet, which could undermine its credibility and deterrence. He has, however, publicly stated that that the war in Ukraine “must end” but that “this fight is far more important for Europe than it is for the US”.

If Trump scales down US’ commitment to NATO he could further damage the trans-Atlantic relationship by imposing trade tariffs, sanctions, and, importantly, by recalling US troops from Europe. These could play into the hands of Russia, which could get emboldened to attack other former Soviet territories. It would also weaken NATO and threaten the stability in Europe.

Trump’s stance on China is less predictable. He could pursue a more aggressive approach by imposing further tariffs and restrictions on Chinese ownership and investment in the US, as well as challenging China’s actions in the South China Sea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Xinjiang. This could escalate the trade and technology war between the two countries, as well as increase the risk of a military conflict or a new cold war.

Some of what the stance could be towards China could be influenced by Trump’s close relationship with Russia and President Vladimir Putin. Trump had once said that he believed Putin rather than the US Intelligence agencies about Russia’s alleged interference in US elections, which Putin had denied. A benign approach to Russia would further fan its expansionist actions such as the attack on Ukraine. And with China an avowed supporter of Russia it could influence Trump’s stance against China itself.

In the Middle East, Trump could resume his “maximum pressure campaign” against Iran by withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal, which restricts Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons and one to which Iran’s compliance has been questioned. If Trump opts for more sanctions instead of a mutually agreed deal (between Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—China, France, Russia, UK, US, plus Germany, together with the European Union), tensions could flare up further in the region and Iran could resume its nuclear activities. In the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, Iran, which has a history of backing militant groups opposed to Israel, could get involved more overtly than it has till now.

What could a Trump regime mean for India? One possibility is that Trump would continue to elevate America’s ties with India and the growing partnership between the two countries, especially in the areas of defence, security, and trade. Trump has been supportive of India’s role in the Indo-Pacific region and has recognised India as a major defence partner. He has also praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his policies, such as the abrogation of Article 370 in Kashmir and the Citizenship Amendment Act. Trump and Modi have also developed a personal rapport and have held several joint rallies, such as the “Howdy Modi” event in Houston and the “Namaste Trump” event in Ahmedabad.

Yet, a Trump administration could also create more challenges and uncertainties for India, particularly in immigration, climate change, and regional stability. In the past, Trump has imposed tariffs on some Indian goods, such as steel and aluminum. He has also threatened to revoke India’s preferential trade status under the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP).

Trump has also tightened the visa rules for skilled workers and students, which could affect the prospects of many Indians who seek to work or study in the US.

He withdrew from the Paris climate accord and accused India of being one of the world’s biggest polluters. Trump has also been inconsistent and unpredictable in his approach to Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, and China, which could have implications for India’s security and interests in the region.

To sum up, a Trump in the White House could be like a bull in a china shop (pardon the pun).

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