Weekly News Wrap Archives - Lokmarg

Five Things That Happened Last Week (And What to Make of Them)

By Sanjoy Narayan 29th January 2023

Why banning media doesn’t usually work

Early last week, BBC aired the second part of the documentary, India: The Modi Question, in Britain. The Indian government has banned the series and social media and streaming platforms have complied with the government’s order. Yet, many have resorted to other means of downloading the series and distributing it for viewing.

While the first episode focused mainly on the 2002 riots in Gujarat and its aftermath, the second and final episode looks mainly at the “religious turmoil” that has ensued in the years after the Modi regime began. The report is comprehensive and also includes views of the police, the government and other authorities. It focuses on the eruption of lynchings related to cow slaughter and on the controversial Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019.

As expected, the documentary and the government action that has followed have led to political ripples. In Kerala, the Congress has screened the documentary in Thiruvananthapuram and although the Congress is in the Opposition in that state, the ruling CPM government has opposed the central government’s ban on the documentary.

It is a common trend that banning exercises such as this one is usually futile. In fact, often a ban on books, movies or other media can lead to heightened interest among the public and that has happened in the case of the BBC film as well. People have been sharing foreign site links where the documentary can be watched; and others have used virtual private networks (VPNs) to bypass the geographic ban. The Congress leader Rahul Gandhi commented: “Truth shines bright. It has a nasty habit of coming out. So no amount of banning, oppression and frightening people is going to stop the truth from coming out.”

To be sure, the documentary makes no big or unforeseen revelations. Much of what has been depicted–whether it is related to the riots or to the references about how Muslims in India have been feeling insecure in the past few years–is already in the public domain. In that context, the government’s decision to ban it could seem hasty and not well thought through. Instead of a ban, an official statement condemning it or rebutting the points that irk the Modi regime could have sufficed. Such a response could also be better for the image of the government, depicting it as a supporter of free speech rather than an authoritarian regime that does not tolerate any form of criticism.

Adani group in the centre of a controversy

An American short-seller activist fund and investment research group has accused the Adani Group (revenues in 2022: $23.3 billion), a conglomerate that is headed by Gautam Adani with interests in infrastructure of what it has called the “biggest con in corporate history”. Hindenburg Research’s report on the group has already wiped out billions of dollars in market capitalisation of the listed stocks of the group. Adani is the world’s third richest man and Asia’s richest. He is also believed to be close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The Hindenburg report accuses the group of widespread manipulation of stocks through undisclosed transactions by using entities in offshore tax havens such as Mauritius and the Caribbean islands. These transactions are believed to have hidden the substantial debt that the group has making it financially “precarious”, according to Hindenburg Research.

Adani Group has refuted the allegations and says that it intends to sue the research firm, which is an investment research firm with a focus on activist short-selling, founded by Nathan Anderson. Adani group says the report is malicious and was intended to sabotage the group’s follow-up public offer. But although banks were worried about the $2.5 billion share sale following the crash in the group’s share values, the group itself said the issue remains on schedule.

Manipulation of stocks via offshore entities that are indirectly linked to promoters is not uncommon in India. There have been many instances by big industrial houses that have resorted to the practice, which is inherently illegal. The charges against the Adani group are likely to be contested in court but the fact remains that the group, whose meteoric rise has been impressive, will be impacted by the taint on its reputation.

Many firsts for India on Republic Day

India celebrated its 74th Republic Day with the customary parade in New Delhi. This year’s chief guest was Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. But there were many new highlights of the celebration this year.

It was the first time that the renamed and revamped Kartavya Path (previously known as Raj Path) was the venue of the celebrations, which were flagged off by President Droupadi Murmu. One of the highlights of this year’s parade was an all-woman marching contingent of the Central Reserve Police, and the representation of several women in many of the other contingents. The Navy contingent, for instance, was led by a woman officer.

Also, in the spirit of self-reliance, the emphasis was on showcasing Indian-made defence equipment such as Arjun tanks and the Akash missile system. The Prime Minister, in a message to the people, said: “I wish that we move forward unitedly to fulfill the dreams of the country’s great freedom fighters. Happy Republic Day to all fellow Indians!”

In all, there were 23 tableaux, representing states, union territories, and government institutions, which depicted Indian culture, heritage, and progress. India’s Republic Day celebration is a grand annual event that aims to demonstrate the country’s development, tradition, and, of course, military prowess. This year, it also celebrated the ascension of women in the armed forces and related organisations.

Opium production in Myanmar is on a high

As it had happened in Afghanistan, with Myanmar’s economy under severe pressure, after the military rule began in the country in 2021, opium production has soared. According to reports by a United Nations’ body, there was a 33% increase in poppy cultivation in Myanmar and an 88% increase in potential opium yield. Opium is used to make heroin, the highly addictive drug, and a surge in its output near the eastern borders of India should be cause for concern.

BBC quoted Jeremy Douglas, the regional representative of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) as saying: “Economic, security and governance disruptions that followed the military takeover of February 2021 have converged, and farmers in remote, often conflict-prone areas in northern Shan and border states, have had little option but to move back to opium.”

What does this mean for India? India shares a 1,643-km long border with Myanmar that passes through four States: Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram. Opium or its highly addictive derivative heroin could find its way across the borders to India and become a conduit to the global market for the drug.

This should raise an alarm for Indian authorities to pre-empt and tighten controls against drug smuggling into the country.

Pathaan, the movie, breaks records

In December, Pathaan, a Bollywood movie starring Shah Rukh Khan and Deepika Padukone was embroiled in a controversy over a song, Besharam Rang. The visuals accompanying the song showed Padukone in a bikini coloured orange (which is close to saffron). According to Hindu mythology, saffron is the colour of sunset and fire, which represent sacrifice, light, and quest of salvation. The colour is usually used (as in robes for sadhus and in flags) to symbolise devotion to the religion.

The film and the song (whose title can be translated as “shameless colour”) led to protests by Hindu activists and also created political ripples in a country where a Hindu nationalist party is in power.

The film, however, has turned out to be a blockbuster. When it was released on January 25, a day before Republic Day, in a single day it netted ₹57 crore at the box office. In addition, it also created a record worldwide, earning ₹106 crore globally. Pathaan is billed as a comeback movie for Khan who is 57. And its record box office revenues already show that despite any controversy, movie mania in India goes on unabated.

Five Things That Happened Last Week (And What To Make Of Them)

By Sanjoy Narayan 18th December 2022

Indo-Chinese border tensions rise… again!

More than a year after their last skirmish, last week Indian and Chinese forces clashed again along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the 3,440 km-long disputed border that is not clearly demarcated between India and China in the Himalayas. The government officially informed Parliament that Chinese soldiers had tried to intrude into Indian territory in Arunachal Pradesh’s Tawang sector but were successfully thwarted by Indian forces, which were well-prepared for the attack.

There was an element of chest-beating hyper patriotism in Indian media reports about the incident. One news agency’s choice of words in its report on the clash when it said that the Indian troops deployed in the area of face-off in Tawang sector “gave a befitting response to the Chinese troops and the number of Chinese soldiers injured in the clash is more than the Indian soldiers”. In contrast, the official Chinese response was more muted. China’s Foreign Ministry gave no details of the scuffle in Tawang but said the situation on the border with India was generally stable. Beijing also called on New Delhi to implement the consensus reached between the two countries and adhere to the spirit of the various agreements and accords signed by both sides to maintain peace and harmony.

That will be easier said than done. The two sides have been attempting to de-escalate tensions along the border since 2020 when in a bigger clash, at least two dozen troops were killed. There is a bit of fuzziness about the facts surrounding the latest skirmish. New Delhi said last week that the most recent clash was in Tawang but China claimed it was in the Dongzhang area and that contrary to the official Indian view, it was Indian troops that had illegally tried to enter Chinese territory.

Much of the ambiguity over the Indo-Chinese clashes is because of the nature of the LAC. It is not demarcated accurately and because of the presence of many lakes, rivers and snow-capped hills and mountains, the topography can shift because of natural causes (for example, melting glaciers or heavy snowfall). This can bring troops from either side in confrontational situations that are often not predictable.

Then there is the genesis and history of the dispute between the two countries over the region. At its core it is all about this: Beijing believes the region that forms the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh is traditionally part of China as “South Tibet”, while New Delhi disputes that and claims that it is part of India.

Besides the fuzzy nature of the LAC, both India and China have been building defence infrastructure along the border at a high pace. This itself has sometimes led to clashes. In 2020, when India built a road to access a high-altitude air base. Since then, there have been attempts at de-escalating tension along the LAC and there have been regular military-level talks. But clashes have happened periodically till a little over a year back when the two sides decided to disengage. This December’s clash broke that entente.

China and India have fought just one actual war–in 1962, when India suffered a humiliating defeat. Yet, although there has been no full-scale offensive from either side, the simmering tension along the LAC could lead to potential threats: both countries are nuclear powers; both have large mutual interests in commerce and trade; and geo-politically a crisis between the two could have ripple effects across the globe. Talking to settle disputes is probably the only way out for the two.

How independent will NDTV remain under its new owner?

Recently, in an interview with Financial Times, Gautam Adani, who now owns NDTV, said he had big plans for the media conglomerate. He wanted to build it into a global news brand. Adani, whose empire spans industries ranging from ports to power generation, told FT that India didn’t have a single media outlet “to compare to Financial Times or Al Jazeera”. Seemingly refreshingly, the richest man in Asia also said that he saw his purchase of NDTV as a “responsibility” and not a business opportunity.

There was a catch, though, in his references to NDTV in the FT interview. Adani’s takeover of NDTV has raised questions about the future of the news organisation. NDTV has been one of the few remaining mainstream media organisations that have demonstrated independence at the cost of riling up the establishment. Whether it has been truly unbiased and objective is open to debate but it has (unlike some of India’s largest media groups) been unafraid to be critical of authorities, including the current Modi regime. Adani told FT: “Independence means if the government has done something wrong, you say it’s wrong. But at the same time, you should have courage when the government is doing the right thing every day. You have to also say that.”

Aren’t governments supposed to be doing the right thing every day? So does a media outlet have to say so every time the government does the right thing, which is,by the way, its duty towards the citizens it governs?

I don’t know about you but this thing about cheering every time the government does the right thing, which is what its job is, doesn’t appear to bode well for NDTv’s future. But then, I may be a bit of a cynic. Dear reader, I do hope that you are too!

Has the West stolen Yoga and made it worse?

In any large western city, the sight of people rushing about with rolled yoga mats slung on their shoulders is more common than it is, say, in India. In India, where yoga originated some 5,000 years ago, it has millions of practitioners but it does not have the commercialisation and the resultant commodification that marks its expansion in the West. And now, there is a backlash to all of that.

Yoga practitioners and teachers are accusing the west of appropriating an integral part of the Indian practice of well-being by wiping out the tradition and history of yoga and replacing it with an alien western model that includes branding, marketing and massive commercialisation. According to some estimates, in 2019, the global yoga industry was worth an estimated US$37.46 billion, and it’s expected to balloon to US$66.23 billion by 2027.

Indian practitioners allege that in the west the practice of yoga has also been “whitewashed” with hardly any Indian instructors and an ethos that is predominantly ethnically white. More specifically, Indian practitioners and yoga gurus allege that yoga has become yet another workout regimen and has been stripped of its cultural and historical narrative. Others have called it the “colonisation” of yoga–something that has become inaccessible to people of colour and ethnically diverse groups.

While part of these allegations might be valid–branded yoga pants and other accessories can cost a lot and membership to yoga clubs in the west is not cheap–could the outrage against yoga’s commercialisation also be a ‘sour grapes syndrome’? After all, what stops Indian entrepreneurs and yoga practitioners from using modern marketing tools to spread the ancient practice themselves? And, if they think they are the custodians of yoga’s history and traditional values, they could even blend their marketing strategy with those so-called authenticities. Instead of looking at the West’s massive adoption of yoga as an appropriation, we should look at it as a missed opportunity.

Prohibition doesn’t work and that’s a fact

Last week, more than 60 people died in a Bihar district because they drank illegally distilled alcohol. This is not the first time that illegally distilled liquor has killed people in Bihar. Since 2016 when Bihar imposed prohibition in the state, the number of people dying or being seriously ill because of consumption of illegal liquor has been rising steadily. Hundreds have died in the state since the Nitish Kumar-led government imposed a ban on liquor.

Historically, prohibition has always been a difficult policy to implement. When the US had prohibition in the 1920s, it is believed that alcohol consumption actually went up and the government lost massive amounts of tax revenue because all of what was being consumed was illegal. The US had to abandon the policy in 1933.

In India, Gujarat has had prohibition since the state was formed in 1960 but an apocryphal story goes that its neighbouring state, Rajasthan, has a massively high rate of per capita sales of alcohol because much of what is sold there is smuggled into Gujarat. Other states such as Haryana, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Manipur have, in the past, imposed prohibition but have had to repeal the law when they found it difficult to implement.

Perhaps it is time for Bihar too to realise that prohibition does not really work.

Covid’s spread in China could be a global threat

After widespread protests led the Chinese government to ease Covid-related restrictions, the situation in China has turned for the worse. The country is now facing what experts are calling the world’s largest Covid surge during the pandemic. According to Chinese public health service officials, as many as 800 million people or nearly 60% of the population could be infected over the next few months. Some predictive models estimate that nearly half a billion people could even die because of the virus.

Given that the virus had been believed to have originally broken out in China in the city of Wuhan in December 2019, this can mean things have come full circle. But considering how the virus had then spread across the world for two years ravaging lives, livelihoods and the global economy, if the resurgence of Covid in China is real, it could be terrible news for the world. It is time for countries to review their policies and reinstate measures to restrict the spread of the virus again.

Five Things That Happened Last Week (And What to Make of Them)

By Sanjoy Narayan 11th December 2022

What BJP’s victory in Gujarat means for Modi and his party

For many observers the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s sweeping victory in this month’s assembly elections in Gujarat was perhaps a foregone conclusion. The party won a record 156 of the182 seats in the state. It is the highest number of seats that any party has won in Gujarat’s electoral history ever since the state was created in 1960. The previous record for the highest tally was the 149 seats that the Congress won in the state in 1985.

By all reckoning, for the Congress that is ancient history. Since then, and more so since 1995, it has been a steady downhill journey for the Congress. In the latest elections, the Congress managed to win just 17 seats, down from 77 that it had won in 2017. As for the newest contender in Gujarat’s electoral politics, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), whose leader, Arvind Kejriwal, drove an energetic campaign in the state, managed to win just five seats.

What does this mean for the BJP? More importantly, what does it mean for Prime Minister Narendra Modi whose home state is Gujarat and who has been chief minister there for more than a dozen years?

A lot, it would appear. Winning in Gujarat for Modi and his party was non-negotiable. It had to happen and it did. Years of being in power in the state may have built up a fairly strong anti-incumbency sentiment among voters. It didn’t. A major disaster such as the collapse of the Morbi bridge that killed at least 135 people could have swung the sentiment among voters. It didn’t. The state has had an indifferent track record on administration and the fact that it has had chief ministers replaced at least twice during the previous term of the government could have affected voters’ decisions. They didn’t.

So what were the factors that led to the BJP’s impressive sweep in the 2022 elections in the state? First, it was the towering influence that Modi enjoys in the state. For Gujarat’s voters, it is Modi whom they see as their leader, their homegrown leader who now leads the country. Neither incumbent chief minister Bhupendra Patel nor any other BJP leader in the state really matters. In Gujarat, Modi appears to be the supreme leader who makes the difference for voters there.

Then, of course, it is the near-collapse of the electoral machinery of the Congress party in the state. The Congress is still coming to grips with its newly elected party leadership after Mallikarjun Kharge assumed charge as president of the party. Its local leaders in the state have not been consequential and, in general, at least in the run up to the recent elections, its eye has not been on the ball. Obviously, the collapse of its strongest political rival has helped the BJP.

The third factor, surprising as it may seem, which has helped the BJP is AAP’s entry into the fray. AAP’s vigorous (if less financially endowed) campaign focused on issues that affect the common man–education, free supply of electricity and water and so on–but it failed to wean voters away from the BJP. What it did, instead, was to cut into the vote shares of the Congress, hobbling the latter’s status as BJP’s prime challenger even further. So Kejriwal and his party really helped the BJP pull off its impressive victory. Ironic, isn’t it?

There was some consolation for the Congress, however. In Himachal Pradesh, where elections were held around the same time, the party won 40 of the 68 seats, ousting the incumbent BJP government. In the previous elections, the BJP had won 44 seats in the state.

What does the Congress’s victory in Himachal mean? For one, in that northern state since the early 1990s, the government has alternated between the BJP and the Congress–each ruling for a term till the other displaces it. In fact, since 1985, the state has usually voted out an incumbent government. So, the Congress’ victory could be seen as a continuation of the oscillating pattern.

Yet, it is also a morale booster for the Congress, which badly needs uppers and mood-lifters. It has seen a series of electoral debacles, exodus of leaders, and a general lack of cohesive direction in its political strategy.

Oh, and just in case you thought that the Congress had finally managed to sever its tether to the Nehru-Gandhi family, please note that last week after the Himachal Pradesh victory, its party leaders vied with each other to credit Priyanka Gandhi, the daughter of former president of the party Sonia Gandhi and the sibling of another former president of the party Rahul, for the victory in Himachal Pradesh. Amen!

China’s mysterious ‘Bridge Man’

The recent protests in China against draconian restrictions on civil rights and movement by individuals across several cities has been compared to the Tiananmen Square massacre of the late 1980s when the state’s military and security forces cracked down against pro-democracy protests. This time around the protests were against the government’s action and stipulations after a fresh wave of Covid infections took hold of many populous cities in the country.

Many of those restrictions have now been rolled back after popular protests locally and outrage that was sparked globally. But behind the protests was an individual who remains shrouded in mystery. In mid-October, a man known as Peng Lifa hung two banners over a busy highway crossing in Beijing that attacked China’s regime headed by president Xi Jingping. The banners variously had slogans such as “We want food, not Covid tests”; “We want reform, not Cultural Revolution”; “We want freedom, not lockdowns”; “We want votes, not a ruler”; “We want dignity, not lies”; and “We are citizens, not slaves.” One of the slogans also attacked Xi directly: “Remove the despotic traitor Xi Jinping!”

Predictably, the Chinese government reacted immediately. The banners were removed and Peng is believed to have been apprehended. But two months later when the first protests started spreading across China’s cities, it was these very slogans that Peng had hoisted that were adopted by the protestors. And Peng is considered by many Chinese citizens as the real hero of the protests.

But here is the sad part of the story. Peng, who is believed to be a techie with interests in physics and philosophy, has disappeared from public life and is likely in custody. His fate is unknown and most fear that the authorities may have taken severe action against him. In the hugely regulated media environment in China, however, he is celebrated and lauded as the “lone warrior”.

Germany busts a domestic terror group

Last week Germany busted a domestic terror group that is believed to have had plans to overthrow the government. The group, headed by a 71-year-old German aristocrat and including retired military personnel, and a former MP for the far-Right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), was apparently planning a coup aimed at overthrowing the government and re-negotiating the terms of the post-second World War settlement.

The far-Right group had links to the QAnon, a conspiracy theory and cult that has emanated in the US and which believes that a cabal of Satanic and cannibalistic paedophiles conspired against the former US President Donald Trump during his term in office. In Germany, the QAnon has had an influence among the far-Right movement and among the Reichsbürger (or Citizens of the Reich) whose members deny the existence of Germany’s post-World War II federal republic. They believe that the current administration is still occupied and influenced by the Western powers that made up the allies–the US, UK, and France.

The busted group members are believed to belong to these and other groups and the authorities believe that they had plans for an alternative government and a strategy to infiltrate the defence forces. Many members of these groups have their own “passports” and “driver’s licences” and distribute and display other propaganda material. German intelligence agencies estimate that there could be around 21,000 members of the Reichsbürger in the country. The recent crackdown is proof that the government takes the threat seriously in an environment where across Europe there is a marked upsurge in ultra-Right wing movements.

A hint of good news for the Indian economy

Last week the World Bank had some good tidings for India’s economy. It revised upwards the estimate for its growth forecast of GDP growth for 2022-23. According to the revision, the GDP growth rate for the year now stands at 6.9% compared with October’s forecast of 6.5%. According to the Bank, India is well-positioned to fight off any global headwinds that might occur because of recessionary trends elsewhere in the world.

In particular, the Bank has upgraded its growth prediction for India on account of what it sees as strong private consumption and investment in the quarter-ending September performance.

The World Bank’s India Development Update report — Navigating the Storm — upgraded the country’s growth prediction on the basis of its September quarter performance “driven by strong private consumption and investment” that saw 6.3% growth in its GDP. This is significant because it comes at a time when the forecasts for most other economies in the world,especially in the west, have been quite dismal.

Warnings of the world’s worst recession

The encouraging forecast for India comes at a time when the world’s biggest asset management firm, Blackrock, has warned of a recession that could be worse than any that the world has seen before. According to a Blackrock forecast, a worldwide recession is imminent soon as central banks boost borrowing costs aggressively to tame inflation and this time, the firm feels it could lead to more intensive and widespread market turbulence across the globe.

According to the Blackrock report titled 2023 Global Outlook, the global economy has already come out of a 40-year period of stable growth and inflation and is now on the verge of entering a period of instability. This regime, marked by unpredictability, is expected to stay, according to Blackrock.

Moreover, the report has highlighted that policymakers will find it difficult to support markets the way they might have done in past recessions. BlackRock, founded in 1988, is the world’s largest asset manager, with US$10 trillion in assets under management as of January 2022.

Five Things That Happened This Week (And what to make of them)

By Sanjoy Narayan 13th November 2022

Is the Biden administration in a gridlock?

When it comes to elections, pollsters often get it all wrong. Before the US midterm elections that were held earlier this month, pre-poll surveys had predicted that there would be a huge wave in favour of the Republicans both in the Senate(upper house) and the House of Representatives (the lower house), which together make up the bicameral legislative body of the US government. On the basis of those predictions political analysts even began forecasting scenarios where the Biden administration could fall into an existential crisis that could prove to be fatal.

As it happened, the outcome of the elections was not as dramatic. In the Senate, the Republicans and Democrats are now head-to-head each with 49 seats in the 100-seat chamber; and in the House of Reps, the Republicans have 211 seats to the Democrats’ 202 of the 435 seats, which means neither party has a majority. The US is largely a bipartisan democracy so unlike in other democracies such as in India or in several European countries, coalitions and electoral alliances are not meaningful options: the Republicans and the Democrats are always rivals.

But what exactly does it mean for President Joe Biden if the country’s lawmaking body is so evenly balanced? After the results started getting announced, Biden expressed a sigh of relief that the pro-Make America Great Again (read: Donald Trump and his supporters) were not bouncing back to stymie his government. But that could have been a response that was too hasty. Because America’s government could find itself in an unenviable gridlock.

Let’s look at the scenario that has emerged. The Republicans have a majority with a slender margin over the Democrats in the House, while in the Senate, neither of the two parties has a majority. What does this imply? For one, it makes President Biden’s task of making major new policy changes through law more difficult because his Democratic party has no clout in the House. Unless the Republicans are on board, it could be difficult for him to enact laws that have major implications. At a time when the shadow of recession looms large over the global economy; and Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to spiral, hurdles to lawmaking in the US could prove to be costly.

There could also be other implications for Biden. Some analysts believe in a sort of eye-for-an-eye move, if the Republicans have an edge in the House they could call for impeachment of Biden–in a kind of retaliation for the impeachments that the Democrats initiated against Trump during his term.

Meanwhile, Trump has said that he will make a big announcement later this month and that could mean he may throw his hat in the ring for the 2024 presidential elections. Trump continues to have considerable support among Republicans and many in the party, including some who have been elected in the midterms, think the 2020 elections results were not credible and that actually it was Trump who should have been declared the winner.

Divisiveness has sharpened in the US political scene and the midterms, even if they haven’t resulted in a clear verdict, have served to sharpen them. We can expect tensions to grow between the two parties and their supporters as 2024 approaches.

How many have died in the Russian attack against Ukraine?

As the war in Ukraine continues, and details of what is happening on the ground remains shrouded in ambiguity, a US military estimate suggests that around 100,000 Russian and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or injured in the nearly 10-month-old war. These figures, however, are a “western” estimate because both Moscow and Kyiv are extremely cagey about releasing official figures for casualties on their respective sides. Instead, ever since the war began last February, both sides have been contradicting each other–in terms of casualties, terrain recovered or captured, and other war-related statistics.

One slightly hopeful sign appeared last week. There were some reports that Ukraine was willing to consider negotiations with Russia for an end to the conflict. However, it is not known whether or how Russia would react to these overtures. Both countries would have to first agree that the 10-month-old war would perhaps not be resolved militarily but through diplomacy.

Speculation about the talks between the two sides grew after Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky withdrew his demand that Russian President VladimirPutin should step down before any negotiations could happen.

Despite the contrary propaganda, both sides have suffered in the war but whether Putin responds to Zelensky’s overtures for talks is something that remains uncertain.

In Gujarat, it’s an AAP shadow that looms

Bombastic declarations are a part of India’s electoral politics. Before Gujarat goes to the polls in less than a month from now, such declarations are flying fast, especially from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has 109 of the 182 seats in the state. Releasing the first list of the party’s candidates last week, BJP leader and Union minister Bhupendra Yadav said his party would break all records and win 150 seats in the assembly.

The facts could be quite different. In allocating seats, the BJP, which has ruled the state for practically 27 years (with a short break in between), has denied tickets to as many as 38 sitting MLAs, an indication that it fears that voters in many constituencies might be swayed by anti-incumbency sentiments. In its first list of candidates, it has included only 69 of the sitting party legislators as contenders for the coming elections.

This could be a sign that the party is fearing stiff competition from the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which won Punjab’s last elections and has been running Delhi for the past seven years.

Gujarat is a prestigious state for the BJP. Not only has it been ruling it for nearly three decades, it is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state and one that he has been chief minister for more than a dozen years. Losing Gujarat and that too to AAP would be humiliating for the party. For now, all eyes are on AAP, which is clearly one of the most prominent rivals to older and bigger parties at the national level such as the BJP and the Congress.

Musk on the warpath in Twitter

After buying Twitter, sacking its top executives and as many as 3,700 employees worldwide, billionaire Elon Musk is continuing to unleash controversial decisions at the popular social media messaging platform. Twitter recently announced a subscription model for anyone who wanted a verified account (which comes with a blue tick).

More recently, Musk scrapped the platform’s work-from-home policy and declared that all employees have to come to work and do a minimum work week of 40 hours. Coming on the heels of a mass sacking, this has created further uncertainty in the company.

Meanwhile, even as Musk reached out to major advertisers in a video chat last week to assure them of his sound business plans, many big spenders have abandoned or put on hold their ad spends on the platform. These include General Motors, General Mills, and United Airlines. Many of these companies are apprehensive about the direction a Musk-owned Twitter will go with regard to hate speech and divisive content. Many of them are waiting and watching how things pan out before resuming spending on the platform.

Facebook employees face the sack

Elsewhere on the social media scene, things are not very different. Faced with declining revenues and increasing losses, Facebook has been on a firing spree. Last week, on a single day, Facebook fired 11,000 employees comprising 13% of the company’s workforce.

Many of those fired were Indians, including some who had just joined the company. In one instance, a woman employee on maternity leave till February received an email that said her job had been terminated.

Facebook’s bossMark Zuckerberg has taken responsibility for the decision to fire employees and for the company’s revenue collapse.

Meanwhile, he is betting big on Metaverse, a virtual world in which people live, work, shop and interact with others all from the comfort of their homes. Facebook’s parent company, Meta, is working to launch this. But although Zuckerberg has invested nearly $36 billion thus far on Metaverse till now, there is little to show for it yet in results.

Five Things That Happened Last Week (And what to make of them)

By Sanjoy Narayan 4th September 2022

Step 1 for the Congress today is for the Gandhis to step aside

In 1969, when the Indian National Congress party split after the late Indira Gandhi was expelled from the party and she formed her own party, then known as Congress (R), the “R” standing for Requisitionists, her new party’s electoral symbol was a cow with a suckling calf. With that symbol, Ms. Gandhi won a landslide victory in 1971. Her long stints as Prime Minister of India (1966-77; and then again from 1980-84) were marked by historic events of both, of the favourable and adverse types. All that is part of history.

As is that symbol of her party, a suckling calf and a cow. The story about why that symbol was dropped and, instead, the open palm (which is still the Congress party’s electoral symbol) was adopted is probably apocryphal but like many such tales it is one that is amusing. The story goes that in the immediate aftermath of the Emergency, the calf and cow symbol became the butt of jokes with Ms. Gandhi being compared to the cow and her son Sanjay, whose notoriety during the Emergency period is well known, to the calf.

Nearly half a century later, the Indian National Congress party’s president is Indira’s daughter-in-law and the widow of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi. And her son, Rahul, is the next most important leader in the party. And going by the current turmoil in the party and the perception that the mother and son duo are a sort of autocratic power centre family in the Congress, the calf and cow symbol could be an apt symbol for it.

The most recent notable departure of a leader from the Congress has been that of the former Union minister and former chief minister of Jammu & Kashmir, Ghulam Nabi Azad. Azad has unambiguously highlighted the autocracy in the party, particularly pointing to Rahul Gandhi and his manner of leadership. He has not been the only one to do so. Several leaders, including relatively younger ones (in the Congress that can mean anyone under 60; Rahul himself is 52 and still referred to as being a young leader), have left the party in recent years and months and while few have been as articulate about their disenchantment with the Gandhi family’s leadership style as Azad, the reasons for their departure are probably not dissimilar.

Much has been written about Rahul Gandhi’s inability to lead his party; organise and revamp it; or win elections. So much so that except for die-hard Gandhi family loyalists–a breed that is rapidly going extinct–to everyone it is quite evident that Rahul is not up for the job of leading, reviving, or running his party with any outcome of meaningful consequence. It may be a bit unfair to slam the “young” leader, though. After all, these sort of things happen. The son of Bollywood’s greatest superstar actor followed his father into acting and was a notable failure; another son of one of India’s best-known opening batsmen in cricket followed his father into playing cricket but flopped and no one really knows or cares about what he is doing.

Such examples abound in almost every field. So it is in politics. Rahul is the scion of an illustrious Indian political family–his father, grandmother, and great grandfather were all prime ministers of India. His great great grandfather was the president of the Congress party in pre-Independence India. But since he himself embarked on a career in Indian politics 18 years ago, his achievements have been unremarkable.

Some Congress leaders absurdly talk about how Gandhi, a middle-aged man, is still evolving and needs more time. The fact is that under him and his mother Sonia, who will turn 76 this year, the Congress has all but collapsed. The party has fared abysmally poorly in parliamentary elections; and has continued to lose its base and power in regions, including states that were once its bastion.

An addict, whether he is addicted to alcohol, drugs or even sex, can only rehabilitate himself if he acknowledges his problem. An addict in denial cannot be cured no matter how expensive or exclusive the rehab facility is to which you send him. Congress’s main problem is its leadership (read: the Gandhis). And the only way to revive it (or prevent its absolute and total collapse) is if the party recognises that and excises the Gandhis from it. Is that likely to happen? Because the party is all about the Gandhis, it can happen if, like the archetypal confessional alcoholic, the Gandhis decide that they are the problem and not anyone else. Step one for the Congress today is for the Gandhis to step aside.

Did India miss the chance to be a good neighbour?

The Biblical phrase “thou shalt love thy neighbour as thyself” is from the Book of Leviticus in the Old Testament about the ethic of reciprocity known as the Golden Rule or the Great Commandment. And while reference to a Biblical phrase can be a bit out of place in the atmosphere that prevails in public discourse–both in the social media as well as in mainstream discussions–it is is worth heeding that phrase, “love thy neighbour”, particularly in the aftermath of one of the most tragic and devastating floods to have hit India’s neighbour, Pakistan.

It is a climate disaster of an unprecedented kind. “A monsoon on steroids” is how the United Nations secretary-general Antonio Guterres described the natural calamity that has affected millions of Pakistanis and taken the lives of thousands.

India is Pakistan’s big neighbour. The two countries share a 3,323-kilometre border. India has a population of 1.4 billion compared to Pakistan’s 220 million (for perspective, Uttar Pradesh has a population of 234 million). India’s GDP is expected to reach US$3000 billion this year, while Pakistan’s is expected to be only US$292 billion.

But India and Pakistan are also in conflict. The two have been fighting several wars since Independence and the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent in 1947. The main dispute is over Kashmir where India and Pakistan are conflicted over who has sovereignty over how much of the area. India also alleges that Pakistan offers safe passage to separatists and terrorists who operate in Kashmir.

When the floods wreaked havoc across the border, it took some time before India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi came out with a statement about it. In a tweet last week, Modi said: “Saddened to see the devastation caused by the floods in Pakistan. We extend our heartfelt condolences to the families of the victims, the injured and all those affected by this natural calamity and hope for an early restoration of normalcy,” But did Modi or the Indian government offer any help to Pakistan? No.

As a neighbour and more resourceful nation, the Indian government could have offered help in the form of medical assistance, food, help in evacuation of the thousands stranded and homeless because of the floods and so much more. Till now, there has been none of that.

It has been a missed opportunity for India. The disputes with Pakistan are long-standing and will probably continue for a long time to come. However, humanitarian assistance that is aimed at benefiting the common people who have been hit by a natural calamity such as the floods in Pakistan could have shown that India can rise above the disputes and conflicts with its neighbour and set an example of magnanimity in international relations.

An aircraft carrier is commissioned; politics ensues

Political bickering accompanies even notable achievements in India’s development. Recently, when the INS Vikrant, India’s first indigenously developed aircraft carrier, was commissioned by Prime Minister Modi to the Indian Navy, and marks the government’s efforts to attain self-reliant development for India, an effort popularised by the term Atmanirbhar Bharat.

Development of the aircraft carrier makes India one of the few countries in the world to attain the capability to build a warship of this proportion. As many as 26 MiG-29K fighter jets, 4 Kamov Ka-31 helicopters, 2 HAL Dhruv NUH utility helicopters and 4 MH-60R multi-role helicopters can operate from INS Vikrant. It is 262 metres long, with a top speed of 28 knots, and endurance of 7,500 nautical miles. INS Vikrant has 2,300 compartments and can accommodate a crew of 1700 seamen.

The commissioning of the carrier was soured by comments from the opposition Congress party leaders who said the Prime Minister does not acknowledge continuity in development, a reference to the fact that the work on the aircraft carrier had begun at Cochin Shipyards in 2009, way before the present government had come to power. The protests seem to suggest that the Congress wanted the Prime Minister to give its earlier regime some credit for development of the warship. Petty politics.

Whither respect for women in India?

Recently, a video surfaced showing the husband of a woman member of the legislative assembly (MLA) slapping her in public. The video shows Baljinder Kaur, MLA from the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) being slapped by her husband, also an AAP leader in the state.

The video has gone viral and so have the reactions. Women activist organisations have said they will initiate suo motu action against Sukhraj Singh, the husband.

The bigger issue, however, is that in India, gender equality remains a pie-dream and women’s rights are in peril–no matter the status and social standing of individuals. It is a sad commentary on Indian society.

Elon Musk wants you to have more children

The billionaire investor and businessman Elon Musk whose statements and social media posts are often designed to shock and create sensation has said that people should have more children. “It’s important that people have enough babies to support civilization,” Musk, who himself has 10 children, has said. “If we don’t have enough kids, then we will die with a whimper in adult diapers. And that will be depressing.”

As the world’s population is set to touch 8 billion (it is estimated at 7.97 billion now) and other experts warn of a dramatic catastrophe, Musk’s latest exhortation comes across as being eccentrically contrarian. But then controversy and contrarianism are nothing new for Musk who is the founder, CEO, and Chief Engineer at SpaceX; CEO, and Product Architect of Tesla, Inc. and has an estimated net worth of around US$266 billion, which makes him the richest man in the world.