Month: February 2021

Early March, during the annual National People’s Congress (NPC), is when China typically announces its defense budget for the coming year. As that time approaches for 2021, it is useful to analyze how well the official figures actually reflect reality, or whether they are deliberately deflated to hide the true extent of Chinese spending on its military.

It is important because China is the second-highest defense spender in the world behind the USA, plus its expenditure is almost 3.5 times that of third-placed India.

Last year’s defense budget was delayed till late May because of COVID-19. In 2020 the publicized budget rose 6.6 percent to CNY 1.27 trillion (USD 179 billion), compared to the year before, “to step up preparations for armed combat,” according to Chairman Xi Jinping. To put this in perspective, that annual increase of CNY 78 billion was almost identical to the complete defense budget of Taiwan for the same year.

With media reports beginning to mount up that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will increase personnel salaries by up to 40 percent in order to recruit and retain quality personnel, this year’s percentage budget increase could well be significantly higher than those in previous years. China’s defense budget has grown in only single-digit percentage increases since 2016, with the PLA enjoying double-digit increases for nearly 30 years prior to that.

There is almost no visibility on how China spends its money, though it appears China has been diverting a greater proportion of money to equipment. For example, the 2019 Defense White Paper revealed that in 2010 about 32 per cent of the budget went on equipment, a figure that had risen to 41 percent by 2017.

Zhang Yesui, the 2020 NPC spokesman, insisted that “hidden military spending” did not exist in China. He assured, “From where the money comes from to how the money is used, everything is accounted for.” Yet China’s spending priorities are not only opaque, they are deliberately hidden, which makes it difficult to ascertain what spending actually is.

Trying to make sense of China’s secrecy, this month Nan Tian and Fei Su of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) prepared a report entitled “A New Estimate of China’s Military Expenditure”.

The authors attempted to come up with a more accurate defense spending figure, and in doing so they revised previously released figures. Originally, SIPRI estimated that China’s 2019 budget was USD 261 billion, as opposed to the official figure of USD 176 billion for 2019. However, under its new methodology, SIPRI has revised the figure downwards to CNY 1,660 billion (USD 240 billion), some USD 21 billion less than its previous estimate.

This is a significant change. For example, whereas SIPRI once estimated that defense spending was 1.48 times that of the officially publicized budget, that now falls to 1.36 times.

Why the change, then?

Nan and Fei explained: “Changes in defense and economic policies can have a significant effect on military activities and how they are accounted for. Some expenses that were considered extra-budgetary in the 1990s or 2000s had probably become part of China’s official budget by 2019. In the new estimate of China’s military expenditure, new categories were added and others were removed or revised. For example, spending on military activities by the China Coast Guard is included in the new estimate, while appropriations for arms imports and commercial earnings from military-owned businesses are not.”

Changes in calculation were implemented to these categories: appropriations for arms imports; commercial income from military-owned businesses; research and development plus testing and evaluation; military-related construction; and subsidies for loss-making arms companies.

It is worth quickly examining each of these in turn, as it helps to understand what may or may not be covered by China’s budget.

Firstly, SIPRI has completely removed the appropriations for arms imports as being outside the national defense budget. This is relatively straightforward to do, since approximately three-quarters of Chinese defense imports come from Russia. The Swedish-based institution now uses Russian-supplied figures to more precisely calculate these values.

Some Western analysts suspect arms imports are paid from a special account outside the official budget, though Beijing claims they are incorporated in the equipment category of its procurement budget. The SIPRI researchers concluded, “Thus, without concrete evidence to support the suspicion of extra-budgetary spending on foreign procurement, Chinese arms imports can now be assumed to be part of the official national defense budget.”

Secondly, also now excluded from SIPRI’s estimates are profits from military-owned businesses. It was historically common for PLA units to supplement their income by offering “paid services” such as accommodation, hospital care or agricultural production. Since 1998, the government began clamping down on these activities. Later, in 2015, Xi ordered such ventures to cease within three years. Xinhua reported in 2019 that this “task is a heavy responsibility,” implying the target had not yet been reached although it must have surely diminished. Nonetheless, it is impossible nowadays to guess the value of remaining commercial ventures, so SIPRI has deleted such incomes from its estimates.

Thirdly, SIPRI retains a section on military research and development (R&D) and testing and evaluation that exist outside the regular defense budget. China asserts it is covered by the official budget, but some analysts describe this category as a “black box” and SIPRI itself says R&D estimates are “highly uncertain”. Basing calculations on annual changes in the general science and technology budget, SIPRI assumes that 90 percent of this goes to military programs.

Local defense spending represents approximately 2 percent of central spending, and perhaps a similar proportion goes on military R&D. However, with no reliable statistics available for what local authorities devote to the sector, SIPRI chose not to include it at all.

Fourthly, capital construction spending is not disaggregated between civil and military in China’s budget. Historically, about 5 percent of this expenditure was estimated to go on military construction, but SIPRI contends that the correct figure is more like 0.07 percent (or just CNY 96 million for 2019). This alternation in methodology is responsible for a huge drop in the institute’s estimates.

Fifthly, despite Chinese arms companies being perennial loss-making entities in the past, this is no longer true as burgeoning export sales occur for China. Any subsidies to loss-making factories were thought to be negligible by SIPRI, but it now realizes this may not be the case. A handful of companies still receive subsidies, including the China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC). However, due to the unavailability of information, SIPRI is ditching this category in its calculations.

The report noted: “Overall, it can be concluded that the Chinese arms industry is profitable and competitive, and that an influx of capital market investment has led to a decreased need for government subsidies. It is likely, however, that some military-related subsidies remain, although they appear to be insignificant in monetary value. But since military-related and civil subsidies cannot be distinguished, an estimate of military-related subsidies cannot be made.”

However, there are many other complications in gaining a true understanding of Chinese defense spending.

To meet the complexities of China’s situation, SIPRI decided that five new spending areas should be added to the official budget. These are: the People’s Armed Police; the China Coast Guard; payments to demobilized and retired soldiers; additional military research, development, testing and evaluation spending; and additional military construction spending. These areas totaled CNY 448 billion in 2019, or 27 percent of the total estimate of CNY 1,660 billion.

The issue of the People’s Armed Police (PAP) is not straightforward, for instance. The PAP maintains internal security, and it would reinforce the PLA in time of war. Its funds are allocated via the public safety budget of the Ministry of Public Security through both central and local governments. SIPRI does include it in its figures now, and China actually released solid figures for the PAP up until 2018. Yet a third of the PAP engages in activities such as gold mining, forestry, border guards and firefighting, and such non-combat roles must be excluded.

What about the China Coast Guard (CCG)? It was transferred under the PAP in July 2018, and it often performs roles that overlap with naval/military ones. Traditionally, SIPRI did not count the CCG in its calculations, but the size of its fleet has grown 16 percent per year from 2015-19. Between 2011 and 2015, China probably spent about CNY 11.2 billion (USD 1.7 billion) annually on the CCG, but of course not all of that related to military activities. Nowadays, SIPRI regards 50 percent of the CCG’s role as being military, amounting to about CNY 11.1 billion (USD 1.6 billion) for 2019.

China’s 2019 Defense White Paper suggested that military pensions are included in the personnel category of its budget. However, it is known that pensions and demobilization allowances (the PLA cut 300,000 jobs after 2015, let it be remembered) are also partially funded through the Ministry of Civil Affairs. Compensation expenses are also covered by the Ministry of Veteran Affairs. These are now being rolled in to the total by SIPRI, and its estimates of payments to demobilized and retired soldiers is up 25 percent.

Nor has China ever included spending on its South China Sea reef bases in its budget, though it should be. China deviously maintains these facilities are a civil operation, even though military hangars, air defense missiles, military-grade radars and other elements are being installed. One estimate suggested it cost China USD 5 billion to develop each atoll in the South China Sea.

The authors summarized: “The most obvious change between the new and old SIPRI estimates of China’s military expenditure is the new CCG category. The biggest effect on the total estimate was made by changes to the PAP figures. The removal of non-military activities from the PAP in 2019 meant a substantial downward revision was needed…”

The report added, “It is noteworthy that the gap between the official Chinese national defense budget and the spending estimates made by the US Department of Defense (DoD) is also decreasing. Since the DoD has historically always estimated actual Chinese spending to be much higher than the budget, the decreasing gap is a further sign that a growing share of China’s spending on military activities is now in the official national defense budget.”

If SIPRI is accurate with its 2019 estimates, then military spending as a share of China’s GDP fell to 1.7 percent (from 1.9 percent), and as a proportion of total government spending it decreased to 5 percent from 5.4 percent .

The question remains, what will China’s defense budget for 2021 be? As the rest of the world reels from COVID-19, will China ram home an advantage and boost spending yet again, perhaps even more so than in previous years? (ANI)

Bollywood actor Taapsee Pannu, who will soon treat movie buffs with her upcoming outing ‘Looop Lapeta’, shared the first look of her character from the film on Tuesday.

The actor, who is widely known to choose unique and clutter-breaking roles, took to Instagram to introduce fans to her character Savi from the forthcoming film while promising that it is going to be a ‘crazy ride’.

Sharing the post, she wrote, “Life mein kabhi kabhaar aisa time aata hai jab humein khud se yeh sawaal karna padta hai (In life, there comes a time when we have to ask ourselves a question) ‘How did I end up here?’ main bhi yahi soch rahi thi (I was thinking about that too). No, not the s–t pot, but the s–t life! Hi, this is Savi, and welcome on board a crazy ride #LooopLapeta.”

The picture features Taapsee sitting in a dark and dingy toilet, holding a piece of paper in her hand. She is seen wearing a green T-shirt, black shorts, and matching sports shoes. The actor also has a red brace on her right knee.

The upcoming film is an official remake of the 1998 German movie ‘Run Lola Run’, written and directed by Tom Tykwer. Franka Potente played the titular role of Lola, while the film also starred Moritz Bleibtreu. The German film followed a woman who needs to obtain 100,000 Deutsche Mark in 20 minutes to save her boyfriend’s life.

Helmed by filmmaker Aakash Bhatia, ‘Looop Lapeta’ is being bankrolled by Sony Pictures Films India, Ellipsis Entertainment (Tanuj Garg, Atul Kasbekar) and Aayush Maheshwari.

The upcoming thriller-comedy movie also stars Tahir Raj Bhasin, who will be sharing screen space with Taapsee for the first time.

Apart from ‘Looop Lapeta’, Taapsee has a flurry of films in her kitty including ‘Shabaash Mithu’, ‘Haseen Dillruba’, ‘Rashmi Rocket’ and a sci-fi thriller directed by Anurag Kashyap. (ANI)

By Reena Bhardwaj

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has named Bhavya Lal as acting chief of staff for the agency. As the senior White House appointee at NASA, Lal served as a member of the Biden Presidential Transition Agency Review Team for the agency and oversaw the agency’s transition under the Joe Biden-led administration.

“NASA has named appointees for senior agency positions. Bhavya Lal joins the agency as acting chief of staff, Phillip Thompson will serve as White House liaison, Alicia Brown will serve as associate administrator for the Office of Legislative and Intergovernmental Affairs, and Marc Etkind will serve as associate administrator for the agency’s Office of Communications. In addition, Jackie McGuinness will join the agency as press secretary and Reagan Hunter will serve as special assistant for the agency’s Office of Legislative and Intergovernmental Affairs,” NASA said in a statement.

Lal brings extensive experience in engineering and space technology, serving as a member of the research staff at the Institute for Defense Analyses Science and Technology Policy Institute (STPI) from 2005 to 2020.

“There, she led the analysis of space technology, strategy, and policy for the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and National Space Council, as well as federal space-oriented organizations, including NASA, the Department of Defense, and the intelligence community,” the statement added.

Lal is an active member of the space technology and policy community, having chaired, co-chaired, or served on five high-impact National Academy of Science committees. She served two consecutive terms on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Federal Advisory Committee on Commercial Remote Sensing and was an External Council member of NASA’s Innovative Advanced Concepts Program and the Technology, Innovation and Engineering Advisory Committee of the NASA Advisory Council.

Before joining STPI, Lal was president of C-STPS LLC, a science and technology policy research and consulting firm. Prior to that, she was the director of the Center for Science and Technology Policy Studies at Abt Associates, a global policy research consultancy based in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Lal will also serve as the senior advisor for budget and finance at NASA. (ANI)

Following the massive success of her Netflix film ‘The White Tiger,’ actor-singer Priyanka Chopra Jonas turned into “a white tiger” and turned her dog Diana into “her cub”.

The ‘Baywatch’ actor took to Instagram to drop the stunning picture of herself dressed in an outfit in the white tiger print with her pooch wearing a matching scarf and leash.

The picture sees the former Miss World dressed in a white-tiger print dress holding her dog’s leash as the two pose in their balcony.

Priyanka’s full-sleeved dress had a high-kneck pattern. Keeping her look classy, the 38-year-old actor tied her hair in a bun and wore hoop earrings.

She dusted off the look with black coloured glares and matching heels.

“A white tiger and her cub @diariesofdiana #TheWhiteTiger,” she wrote in the caption of the post.

The Ramin Bahrani directorial, ‘The White Tiger’ is based on the booker-prize winning novel of the same name by Aravind Adiga.

It stars actors Adarsh Gourav, Rajkummar Rao and Priyanka Chopra Jonas who has also doubled up as the executive producer of the film. (ANI)

Alleging that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has “deceived the people, especially the poor” in the union budget presented on Monday, Congress leader P Chidambaram said farm sector has been shortchanged, the fiscal situation “is in a mess” and the government has shown its “unconcealed desire to sell-off all public sector banks”.

Addressing a press conference here, he said there was no mention of defence in the budget speech and the “mind-boggling figure” of Rs 223,846 crore for heath was “a conjurer’s trick”.

“The budget was a let down like never before. This budget, like the previous one, will unravel sooner than you think,” he said.

The former Finance Minister said the Congress had listed “two non-negotiables” and the “government has miserably failed the people of this country”.

“She deceived the people of India, especially the poor, the working class, the migrants, the farmers, the industrial units that had been closed down permanently, and those who had lost their jobs, both regular and informal, and are still looking for jobs,” he said.

“She deceived those who were listening to her speech, especially the MPs, who had no clue that she had imposed cesses on a large number of products including petroleum and diesel: Rs 2.50 on petrol per litre and Rs 4.00 on diesel per litre is a cruel blow to the average citizen, including the farmers,” he added.

Chidambaram said it was “a vengeful act” against the thousands of farmers who took out the longest tractor rally in history. “It was also a cruel blow to federalism because the states do not get a share of the revenue from cesses”.

“She did not mention Defence at all, as if the Chinese had vacated occupied Indian territory. She did not mention that Defence expenditure in 2021-22 will see no rise. It is flat at Rs 3,47,088 crore, almost the same as the Rs 3,43,822 crore in the current year.

He said the Finance Minister gave out “a mind-boggling figure of Rs 223,846 crore for heath, a breathtaking ‘rise’ from the BE of the current year of Rs 94,452 crore”.

“As I had warned, it was a conjurer’s trick. She added the one-time cost of vaccination (Rs 35,000 crore) and the Finance Commission grants amounting to Rs 49,214 crore. She also included the allocations to the Department of Water and Sanitation. Shorn of these add-ons, the allocations for Health were Rs 72,934 in 2020-21 and Rs 79,602 crore in 2021-22. Given inflation, the increase is practically nil,” he said.

“However, on page 10 of the Budget at a Glance, the two numbers are Rs 82,445 crore and Rs 74,602 crore — which means a reduction in expenditure from the level in the current year. What kind of additional health infrastructure can be built with this parsimonious allocation?” he asked.

He said fiscal numbers show that “the fiscal situation is in a mess” and revenue deficit (7.5 per cent) and the fiscal deficit (9.5 per cent) in the current year have exceeded every prediction, including that of government.

“In 2021-22 the government estimates it will borrow about Rs 3.42 lakh crore less, but nobody is willing to believe the government. The ‘borrowing’ number has been under-stated by assuming that there will be disinvestment revenues of Rs 1.75 lakh crore. The record of this government on disinvestment is poor. The government has also assumed that tax revenues will increase by 15 per cent — another questionable assumption,” he said.

The Congress leader said that revenue deficit of 5.1 per cent and fiscal deficit of 6.8 per cent for 2021-22 “will send alarm signals to the rest of the world, especially the investors and international lenders”.

He said there was a huge expectation that there will be a significant increase in government expenditure to offset sluggish private investment and private consumption.

“The numbers show that total government expenditure will see a paltry rise from Rs 34,50,305 crore to Rs 34,83,236 crore.”

He said the budget allocation for ‘Agriculture and Allied Activities’ has been reduced from Rs 1,54,775 crore (BE) to Rs 1,48,301 crore (BE). “Of the total expenditure, the proportion has been reduced from 5.1 per cent to 4.3 per cent.

Chidambaram said budget allocation for Market Intervention Scheme, Price Support Scheme and PM Kisan Samman Nidhi has been reduced.

He alleged that MSMEs “were dismissed” in one sentence with an allocation of Rs 15,700 crore. “This is like providing a fistful of oats to a hungry elephant. Nothing was mentioned about providing liberal, low-interest loans, working capital or moratorium.”

He said a meagre sum of Rs 20,000 crore has been set apart for the recapitalization of Public Sector Banks, when the requirement is several times more.

“At the same time, the government intends to privatize two PSBs. The intent of the government is clear: let the PSBs bleed slowly so that they can all be privatized in the short term. Let us see the reaction of the public to this unconcealed desire to sell-off all public sector banks.”

Referring to tax changes, he said each one of the measures announced by Sitharaman ill benefit only the taxpayers among the richer classes.

The minister said multiple GST rates remain and “saga of protectionism continues” in terms of tariffs.

He said the Finance Minister has paid special attention to election-bound states but people realise that only outlays had been announced and actual expenditure will happen only after the schemes are approved.

Referring to Sitharaman’s remarks about “like never before” budget, he said her mandate was to present an annual statement of revenue and expenditure for 2021-22.

“What she did, however, was to estimate expenditure over two years or three years or four years or, in one case, over 5 years,” he said. (ANI)

Following the military coup banks in Myanmar have been temporarily shut down due to major disruptions of internet services, according to media reports.

According to a report by The Myanmar Times, banks under the Myanmar Banking Association have announced a unified closure from February 1.

Besides, the ATM machines of major banks are also not operating in Yangon.

A poor internet connection linked to the state of emergency also affected operations of construction sites in Yangon, and many supermarkets in the city decided to cut opening hours and called on residents to refrain from panic buying, Sputnik reported.

Telecommunications in the capital city of Naypyitaw and some other regions and states have also been cut off.

Earlier, the Myanmar military declared a state of emergency in the country for one year, following the coup, where Aung San Suu Kyi, President U Win Myint and other senior officials have been detained by the military.

The state power has been handed over to Commander-in-Chief of Defense Services Min Aung Hlaing, while Myanmar’s first Vice-President Myint Swe will serve as the acting president of the country.The newly-elected lower house of the parliament was due to convene on Monday, however, the military called for a postponement.

The Myanmar military said on Monday the new election in the country will be held after the end of one-year emergency, which was imposed earlier in the day following the coup by the army leadership. (ANI)

Delhi Police Commissioner SN Shrivastava on Monday visited Ghazipur on the Delhi-Uttar Pradesh border and took stock of the security arrangements.

Srivastava also briefed the police personnel and appreciated their hard work, Delhi Police said.

Security has been tightened at the Ghazipur as well as other borders including Singhu and Tikri.

Nails have been fixed on the ground near barricades near Ghazipur

The protest at the Ghazipur border entered its 66th day on Monday.

Security has been stepped up as farmers continue to make their way to the protest site for the past two to three days.

Meanwhile, Delhi Police said today that total 44 FIRs have been registered and 128 people arrested so far in connection with January 26 ‘tractor rally’ violence in the national capital. Delhi Police Crime Branch has arrested a person Akash Preet Singh in connection with the Republic Day violence.

He is accused of attacking CISF personnel with a sword, the Police said.

Farmers have been protesting on the different borders of the national capital since November 26 against the three newly enacted farm laws: Farmers’ Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Act, 2020; the Farmers Empowerment and Protection) Agreement on Price Assurance and farm Services Act 2020 and the Essential Commodities (Amendment) Act, 2020. (ANI)

Health Minister of Pakistan’s Punjab Yasmin Rashid has warned people to get vaccinated at their own risk even as Prime Minister Imran Khan boasted of having received coronavirus vaccines from China.

According to a report by The News International, Rashid advised people to vaccinate at their “own risk”, saying there were side effects related to the COVID-19 vaccine, which she also claimed caused “deaths in some countries.”

“There have been deaths due to the COVID-19 vaccine in some countries as well; therefore, everyone will be vaccinated at their own risk,” she said.

Later, she clarified her statement saying that it was not possible as of now to say how long the vaccine will remain effective.

“Research on the treatment of the coronavirus pandemic is still going on around the world.”

According to the latest update by the Johns Hopkins University, Pakistan has recorded 546,428 COVID-19 cases and 11,683 deaths so far. (ANI)

Bollywood star Kajol Devgan on Monday treated fans to a stunning picture of herself in a black jumpsuit while dispensing some wisdom about how to navigate the path to happiness.

The ‘Kuch Kuch Hota Hai’ star took to Instagram and shared a gorgeous picture of herself and posted “another jumpsuit thought.”

She noted: “The road to happiness is always under construction, but no worries… my SUV has a four-wheel drive..ROCK ON!”

Along with the thought, the ‘Kabhi Khushi Kabhi Gham‘ star shared a picture in which the actor is seen smiling as she poses for the lens.

The actor kept her luscious locks open and make-up light for the shoot in which she is seen in a black jumpsuit with a designer slit neck and a silver belt.

With the post hitting the photo-sharing platform, it garnered more than one lakh likes, with scores of fans leaving red hearts and fire emoticons in the comments.

The ‘Tanhaji’ star has been quite active on social media by posting pictures and videos.

The ‘Dilwale star previously also shared a couple of pictures from a photoshoot in which she was seen in a designer jumpsuit. (ANI)