Tag: Carbon Footprint

Resolve To Tackle Climate Crisis

New Resolve to Tackle Climate Change

By Asad Mirza

Though right form the start or even before it started, the vibes from the Dubai COP 28 Summit were not positive. However, as the jamboree ended, 198 countries announced that they are committed to phase out fossil fuels as they pose the main climate change accelerators.

Ending Fossil Fuels

The countries agreed to contribute to a transition “away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.”

This could be counted as some progress as just a few years ago it was inconceivable that fossil fuels, which in fact still fulfil almost every country’s energy needs to a large extent will be shamed and might be banned.

However, the announcement doesn’t mean anything, as there is no mandate behind it, but it could help build momentum for more action from governments. The Paris climate agreement’s commitment that countries would pursue efforts to limit global heating to 1.50 C, above pre-industrial levels staged a version of this in 2015.

In fact, the agreement doesn’t underline the urgency required to avoid worsening climate destruction, and it includes language, which may fuel further delay or non-action.

A New Culprit Identified

While oil and gas companies have not yet committed to producing less fossil fuel, their pledge to cut emissions from their own operations is noteworthy.

In the agreement, instead of highlighted the harmful effects of Carbon Dioxide – CO2, the delegates were somehow influenced to focus more on Methane-CH4.

Methane, an odourless gas is produced by virtually every oil and gas project worldwide. When it is not cost effective to capture it, companies often release methane into the atmosphere via venting or burn it through flaring, which ironically converts it into Carbon Dioxide. 

The gas also leaks into the atmosphere from facilities via innumerable small, undetected or unreported leaks in pipelines or other equipment, or through large-scale releases called “super-emitter” events.

Scientists say methane has been responsible for up to 30 percent of global warming since the industrial era began, so the Dubai agreement offers a win for the climate, even if the 50 signatories account for less than a third of the industry’s total operational emissions.  

Oil companies may choose to shut some production because that is the most cost effective answer to the target of zero flaring of methane. Some of the biggest oil companies have already promised zero routine flaring and near-zero methane, and a number have shown that big progress can be made on the latter.

Renewable Energy

A second COP 28 commitment could affect demand for fossil fuels by tripling the world’s renewable energy generation capacity to at least 11,000 Gigawatts –GW by 2030.

More than 120 countries signed up to this pledge, which will require a big leap in effort from what has been done before. It took 12 years from 2010 to 2022 to achieve the last tripling of renewable capacity. This one has to be done in the space of eight years.

This means that meeting the goal will be difficult, but achievable. This is also supported by the fact that solar and wind are now the cheapest sources of new energy generation in most countries, but the growth of renewables is being held back by a range of bureaucratic and regulations bottlenecks that many authorities are struggling to unblock.

Generating More Efficient Energy

The third COP 28 commitment with implications for hydrocarbons is aimed at boosting energy efficiency.

More efficient and smart use of energy is widely referred to as the “first fuel” in clean energy transitions because it offers some of the quickest and most cost-effective options for cutting emissions, lowering energy bills and bolstering energy security. 

The countries that signed up to the 2030 renewables pledge agreed to collectively double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements from around 2 percent to more than 4 percent every year until 2030.

However, all this could translate into real achievement only when the world leaders who attended COP 28 are focussed to turn these words into real ground action by creating plans for implementation of the summit’s goals.

This certainly leaves much to be desired, given the sway of the oil and petrochemicals giants on various governments, an example of which is the manner in which they have been able to turn the attention from CO2 to MH4 at the recent summit. Thus, a resolve coupled with sincere and active policymaking, should pave the way forward but it may also invite political opposition and industry resistance.

 (Asad Mirza is a Delhi-based senior political and international affairs commentator.)

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Decarbonising Economic Growth

Decarbonising The Economic Growth

By Kunal Bose

What will be the country’s grid electricity demand at any point in future will be largely decided by gross domestic product (GDP) growth, which is likely to vary from a low of 6.8 per cent to a high of 8 per cent. Past experience says higher the GDP growth, greater will be industry’s percentage wise share in electricity use. Based on a platform of 7.5 per cent average GDP growth, India’s leading energy and resources institute TERI says in a research paper that the country’s 2030 electricity demand will be between 2254 TWh (terawatt hour) and 2533 TWh.

High levels of sustained inclusive economic growth the country needs to combat poverty that even after 75 years of independence exists on a disturbingly large scale. (In an April 2020 brief, the World Bank found 176 million Indians were living in extreme poverty in 2015. The Bank adds that Covid-19 pandemic had resulted in the swelling of ranks of poor, particularly in rural areas.) The fact also remains growth in India and many other countries has come at a great cost to the environment.

From unrestrained mining in spite of claims of tight oversight by government agencies to the making and application of harmful chemicals to burning of fossil fuels, particularly coal for electricity generation to still rampant use of plastic as packaging material all are contributing to environment sullying to the extent that all east Asian countries are now experiencing more floods, droughts and earthquakes. Earlier this year, record breaking floods resulting from prolonged severe heat wave followed by unusual volumes of rains swept across much of Pakistan. The floods submerged entire villages, displacing millions and damaging critical infrastructure. A human tragedy of the worst kind, nearly 2,000 people perished during the four-month long deluge. The frightening Pakistani flood experience is unnerving for the whole of East Asia.

In the meantime, climate change continues to impinge on the economy, though not immediately visible, at an accelerated rate. Unarguably, India being largely dependent on electricity derived from coal, the filthiest of fossil fuels, the environment has to bear the brunt of high carbon emissions by thermal plants. This is in spite of incorporation of many new mitigating technologies in such plants and washing of coal to reduce ash content ahead of its burning in furnaces. Whatever that is, environmental salvation and well-being of the masses will depend on combined efforts of the government and the private sector to greening of energy supply by rapidly creating capacity of all kinds of renewable energy and also shedding inhibitions about nuclear power plant installations. Global consensus among energy experts is that for transition to a less and less carbon emitting power network, nuclear energy will have to have its rightful share.

A December report by the government think tank Niti Aaayog saying that coal-based power generation capacity in the country is likely to peak at around 250 gigawatt by the end of this decade or immediately thereafter. Moreover, power generation from this source will peak a few years later. The anti-coal lobby also draws comfort from the fact that power groups are beating a retreat from building new coal fired thermal units in the face of highly competitive power tariffs of renewable energy. It will not be a surprise if quite a few of coal based power plants in pre-construction pipeline are abandoned.

But then what is not deniable is that India has for very long stuck to coal to meet its growing power requirements, knowing well its ill effects on the environment. The country’s thermal power capacity is 235,929 MW in which the share of coal is over 86 per cent. The rest is from lignite, diesel and gas. Such major reliance on coal, however obnoxious the fuel may appear to anyone caring for the environment, is because of its abundant local availability. India’s coal resources are an estimated 319.02 billion tonnes of which proved reserves are 148 billion tonnes. Naturally, coal being by far the largest in the mining sector, its production in the country was a high 778.19 million tonnes in 2021-22. Even then so high is the power sector’s dependence on this fossil fuel that last year the country had to import 209 million tonnes of coal to meet demand.

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Thankfully, the combination of government policy encouragement that includes subsidies and farsightedness of private enterprises – one may recall the trailblazing role played by the late Tulsi Tanty and his Suzlon group in promoting green energy – is now seeing the country firing on all cylinders to build all kinds of renewable energy. According to global database agency Statista, India has so far built renewable (small hydro, biomass power, urban and industrial waste power and solar and wind energy) energy capacity of 106,374.63 MW, major hydro capacity of 46,525 MW and nuclear capacity of 6,780 MW. India more recently, however, dropped the 500 GW of renewable energy target and also a billion tonne of carbon emissions committed at COP26 by 2030. But it will still strive to have 50 per cent energy supply from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.

This is seen as an attempt by the government to retain the flexibility of commissioning new coal fired power plants to achieve the projected 820 GW total capacity in case the growth in green fuels based power capacity falls short of target. India is just one of the countries in Asia where coal remains the king. Other fossil fuels such as oil and gas also have a significant share in the energy mix of some countries in the continent such as Japan, Thailand and Bangladesh. India is the world’s third largest emitter of greenhouse gases next only to China and the US.

This gives an idea of the country housing large numbers of polluting industries, including power plants and the big population of polluting vehicles, which have lived their useful life. Undeniably the political will to get rid of such polluters is building up over the last few years as is evident in the government’s vehicles scrappage policy. It, however, remains to be seen how forcefully the policy is enforced and how quickly the government brings industrial units polluting air and water to heel.

The point is if Beijing and Chinese provincial authorities could bring polluting industries to book why should not the powers that be in India be able to do the same. Perhaps what stops the government from acting firm are job losses when not enough new employment is created. Compulsions such as this and uncertainties about securing funding for the ambitious green energy growth are likely the reasons for New Delhi to set a zero-carbon target date of 2070, two decades later than developed economies of the West as also Japan.

Xi Jinping, who was re-anointed the country’s supreme leader the other day, made a pledge in the UN General Assembly in September 2020 that his country would be peaking CO2 emissions ahead of 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. If Xi commitment is honoured, then global warming would get lowered by 0.2-0.3 degree centigrade by 2060. In the meantime, Mukesh Ambani, chairman of Reliance Industries, which is committed to build massive renewable energy capacity, including green hydrogen at Dhirubhai Ambani Green Energy Giga Complex at Jamnagar in Gujarat, said: “Decarbonising the global economy will require multi-decade investments in green and clean energy to the tune of $5 trillion per year globally.” But this offers “unprecedented opportunities” for multi-decade growth for energy groups such as Reliance and Adani.

Hope From COP

By Jasdev Singh Rai

Despite general frustration with COP 26, there are some milestones achieved, some targets that are worth looking forward to and some hope that future COPs will moving in the right direction. To have expected an exceptionally ambitious plan to address climate change would have been naïve particularly as it would have meant considerable disruption to normal life.

Perhaps the four developments that are worth considering are the commitment to deforestation, the setting up of a fund for developing countries to mitigate climate change, India’s commitment to source half of its energy from non-fossil fuel sources and China offering to work with USA to deal with climate crises.

India is one of the main countries along with China and USA leading the world pollution table. Both China and India are continuing to rely on coal significantly. Both have also signalled to change from coal and other fossil fuels to non-fossil sources. India has a growing population and its middle class base in expanding with needs such as cars, refrigerators, mobile phones and other high tech equipment. It is also developing economically. India has a significant challenge to balance the needs and appetite of its population for energy hungry technology and reduce carbon and methane emissions on the other hand.

Unlike western countries where energy needs have reached near peak point, India’s needs are on the up. Developed countries have to change their energy needs from carbon dependency to non-carbon fuels. India cannot just ditch all fossil sourced energy and invest in non-Carbon energy sources. The expense would mean giving up on development or delaying it significantly.

Hence Prime Minister Modi’s commitment to ensure that half of India’s energy will be sourced from non-Carbon fuel by 2030 is significant. This will be around 500 gigawatts. The sheer scale of this new energy sources will make it cheaper all around for the world. It is quite possible that as this alternative fuel sources become cheaper, India will reach its target much sooner and commit to a greater percentage of non-carbon energy by 2030. Cheaper non carbon energy will encourage other countries, including developed countries to invest in non-fossil sourced energy. Currently it is still expensive. It needs exponential increase in numbers.

India has further committed to reduce its total carbon emissions by 1 Billion tones. This is a significant target. Although PM Modi also said that India will reach net zero by 2070 which disappointed many. There is hope that once the escalation to renewable energy takes place, the 2070 target will be reviewed.

India however refused to agree to the para to phase out coal. India along with Russia and China are still dependent on coal. The para was weakened to read ‘phase down’. Nevertheless it is moving in the right direction.

Similarly the setting up of a larger fund for developing countries to change to non-fossil fuels and a fund for small Islands is a step towards the start of a serious drive to assist countries highly dependent on fossil fuels to transfer to other energy sources and become self-sufficient. The Fund is likely to grow as more countries chip in and current developed countries reach deeper into their pockets.

Small Islands facing extinction with rising oceans and temperatures however came out with a punitive lifeline. A mere 2 million has been pledged to them. It is likely to increase.

As significant is the commitment to deforestation. Deforestation has been a major cause of carbon emissions and climate change. Countries such as Brazil and Russia have significant forests. There are many smaller countries in South America, Africa and South East Asia who have large forests but also need land for farming as well as living space for their population. In a competitive world they try and balance their budgets with developing whatever resources they can. A commitment to stop deforestation with appropriate compensation will encourage many countries to scale down encroaching on forests.

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The hand of friendship by China to work with USA is another welcome development. Both countries have faced significant consequences of the climate change. China has put the United States in a spot to some extent by this offer. Instead of accusing China of damaging the climate, the USA can cooperate to set achievable targets.

Critics say that the agreements fall far short of efforts needed to keep temperature rise to 1.5° C by end of century. Based on the current agreement, the temperature will probably rise by 2.4 leading the world towards disaster. Critics say that the solutions agreed do not rise to the challenge. This may well be, but the agreements in themselves are a step in the right direction.

The world economy has been dependent on fossil fuel for over a century if not more. The corporations in control of production cannot change overnight without significant damage to economy and jobs. However they feel the heat of public opinion and know that they cannot carry on as usual. COP26 has shown that the tide is beginning to change and both developed countries and Transnationals are beginning to give undertakings to be responsive to reduce Carbon and Methane emissions.

If the pressure continues and the damaging consequences of climate change keep on recurring, within a year or two, the atmosphere will change. More dramatic commitments will be made either in COP27 or by COP28. It also gives enough time for countries and the corporate sector to begin restructure their investments, productions, sourcing etc to be compliant with change to reduce temperature rises. Both developed countries and corporations know that the mood of the public has changed and will not tolerate their intransigence.

A subtext of COP26 was that the Britain under the current Prime Minister is not much trusted around the world. UK itself is investing in a new coal mine. It has cut overseas aid thus depriving poorer countries even further of means to cope with climate change. Britain further failed to join an alliance to phase out oil and gas. To many it seemed the United Kingdom was asking others to commit to targets that it wasn’t interested itself to adopt. Not surprisingly, the largest emitters have postponed their commitment to another day. Its politics.

Nevertheless COP26 gives hope. It has shown that unlike the Paris Agreement where grand gestures and ambitions were made, the mood now is to get down to business. The polluters know they cannot ignore public opinion or media cacophony on climate. They know the science is against them and they have no answers to the growing evidence that has been finding its way into headlines. They know that the Paris Agreement is not something they can ignore. If the Paris Agreement set targets, the Glasgow COP26 has started the journey on the path.

Weekly Update: Modi’s Mission 2070; Fuss Over Sikhs For Justice

By Mehnga Singh

2070 Only 50 Years Away

Normally a man used to whisking a magic wand at midnight and policy getting implemented within 10 sec past 12, Modiji seems to have done some unique yoga pose to have given a calm, patient and thoughtful five decades notice for the zero emission climate change goal. Ecstatic, Britain’s born again imperialist, Boris, was driven to endless hugs with Modiji as he felt he had achieved one promise in the COP 26 meetings that was worthy of looking forward to.

What can humanity want more than a slow burning ray of hope as it dies with congested overheated lungs, water up to its knees and praying to live up to the momentous year, 2070 when a new yug will dawn. Then the world will change and those still left with a few functioning alveoli can recover without Oxygen cylinders.

Modiji’s promise to deliver by 2070 has been more than a notch in British Prime Minister’s achievement at COP26. Boris committed UK to net zero by 2050. Greta’s school warriors were not happy. Too late they said. Now Modiji has added another two decades making Boris’s promise look, ‘ASAP by tomorrow’.

It is a great relief for Boris. Most middle class school age English Girls like to go on a ‘discover yourself’ extended round India tour. A chink in Greta’s army. So they are not going to say ‘Modi Hai Hai’. Which means Boris wins as he can say I am reaching the goal post faster than ‘my huggy friend Modi’. Meanwhile Modi, ‘Hugs r Us’, knows he doesn’t have to deliver.

Unless Jeff Bezos’s money finds the magic elixir of eternal life, both Boris (57) and Modi (71) will be long gone into another world beyond before 2070. So they won’t even be here to be called out.

Brilliant stroke of strategy by the Indian PM and a quick take on opportunity if ever by Boris, a person never to let one pass by. No doubt Greta was walking the streets with her force at the weekend frustrated.

Panic Over A Paper Tiger

If some of the media coverage of the Khalistan Referendum held in London are to be believed, the National Security Advisors of UK and India are to meet and spend quite some time over something that has the relevance of a meteor in the third galaxy away.

The world of Indian security threats must be near nirvana if Khalistan Referendum is the most pressing issue giving Mr Doval sleepless nights. No wonder the Sikhs for Justice (SFJ) have boasted of being a real danger to the mental state of India’s rulers.

The Indian State, used to throwing people in cells for just using constitutional rights such as free speech or civil rights or judicial judgements, can’t fathom why other countries don’t do the same for India. One Indian media even went as far as, ‘doesn’t Johnson understand that this (not stopping Khalistan Referendum) could affect India – UK relations!’

Apparently the Indian Foreign Secretary used most of his press conference at Glasgow to attack the ‘Khalistan Referendum’.  Allegedly even PM Modi raised this issue with PM Johnson, obviously seeing it as a greater threat to the Globe than climate issues. Climate can wait till 2070, but freedom of expression! How can that be permitted in United Kingdom, especially for Sikhs! Boris must have been lost for words for the first time, standing on SNP ground, Glasgow and being asked by Indian PM to stop an independence campaign. Did PM Modi think of the irony of his demand, if he did indeed make it?

There appears to be a bit of misunderstanding between the two countries on democracy, article 19, freedom of speech and the United Nations Declaration on Human Rights. As many an Indian journalist and news media will say behind closed doors, freedom of speech in India means ‘freedom as tolerated’ by the Government of the day. From Indira to Modi, it has been interpreted as such.

In UK, freedom of speech is, well, anything that a person wants to say regardless of what Government prefers. Sometimes it can lead to litigation by individuals named by an overzealous free speech wallah. But government doesn’t have that luxury. Nor does British police, Army or secret Services oblige Government by incarnating or knocking off a person who campaigns against Boris, the Queen, the State or even House of Lords.

Somewhere during transfer of power in 1947, this aspect of democracy wasn’t hammered home properly. So repeatedly Indian officials and PM’s insist that UK, USA and even UN follow India’s interpretation of freedom of speech. It wants the whole human rights world to accept Indian constitutional concept of any campaign or desire for freedom to be labelled as sedition!

The focus on the Khalistan Referendum, the over reaction by Indian officials in its various embassies is bizarre. It exposes an abnormal neurosis among decision and policy makers at the top of Indian security and ministerial team.

Referendums are held by Governments. UN doesn’t hold referendum unless the Security Council sanctions it and all five veto holding members agree. So what’s the panic all about? Civil society cannot hold ‘referendums’ any more than form ‘Parliaments’. They can hold pretend ones or engage in theatrical versions.

The Indian press has been shrieking that ISI is behind this and some even said that many Pakistanis voted in London in the ‘referendum that isn’t a referendum. Some even accuse China. The hysterical coverage is hilarious.

It will be foolish of Pakistan or China to be financing or helping with this non-referendum referendum. India can easily finance a Baluchistan referendum or even a Tibetan referendum in UK in retaliation if any of these countries consider raising the issue at UN.

But if Modi and Doval think that a paper referendum with no legal or political value is the greatest threat India is facing while being surrounded by hostile countries on all its borders and a Islamic State (ISIS) considering launching a strategy of attacks within India from basis in Afghanistan, one can only think of the last days of the Mughal Empire. The Emperor would not look at real threat from colonialists but concentrated on pointless small ones in his Kingdom.

As for NSA India raising this with NSA UK, it will be better for High Commissioner of India (HCI) I to talk to Priti Patel, Britain’s Home Minister, who, despite being alleged to be a Modi fan, will tell the HCI, that there is nothing she can do. British law interprets freedom of expression as it literally means.

The more India reacts, by labelling SFJ as terrorist and the referendum as a ‘great threat’ on par with border attacks by China, the more Sikh nationalists around the world participate in it. If all it takes to create panic in India is to put a cross on a paper with no teeth in London, why not do it again and again. That’s what many say. It is more than surrealist. If China is financing it, their officials must be having a real laugh.