Jan Suraaj Set to Score Moral, if Not Electoral, Sweep in Bihar

Another five days to go for the first phase of polling in Bihar assembly elections, a large section of people one interacted with complain that the traditional media and to an extent the social media has banished Jan Suraaj Party from its coverage. These people with grouse incidentally are across the caste and the underlining point is that most of them are educated and somewhat prosperous.

The desire to see a shift in the fortunes of the state and rid it from the albatross of caste-based society is somewhere making a mark. While debates over the electoral success story of Prashant Kishor’s party could continue but his efforts has certainly won him moral success in shaking up the mindset of the people.

Elections seem fascinating in some measure because they reflect the shifts in people’s thinking and aspirations as well as their expectations of the leaders. On November 14, we may know a little more about “Badalta Bihar” when the outcome of the two-phase Bihar Assembly elections will be known.

As the Opposition Mahagathbandhan appeared to be losing momentum following differences in the alliance over seat-sharing, Rahul Gandhi stepped in and reached out to Lalu Yadav. Rahul rushed old Congress hand and ex-Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot to Patna to salvage a situation which was getting out of hand.

By naming its CM candidate, the Mahagathbandhan has regained momentum, putting the ruling NDA on the defensive for not having done the same. Union Home Minister Amit Shah left the CM question open when he said that the NDA MLAs will choose their leader after the elections, even as the NDA is contesting the polls under the leadership of the incumbent CM Nitish Kumar.

ALSO READ: Not Naming Nitish As CM Is Part Of NDA Poll Strategy

What has also become evident is that the Bihar fray has thrown up a crop of young leaders, be it Tejashwi Yadav, Chirag Paswan, Mukesh Sahani or Prashant Kishor. In the countdown to the Bihar elections, the “PK factor” features in every conversation about it. The poll strategist-turned-politician Kishor’s Jan Suraaj has caught eyeballs, and got the attention of youths. Tired of old faces and politics, a section of Bihar people has been drawn by his pitch to move beyond caste politics towards ensuring a better future for their children.

Kishor had himself said that his party would get either 150 seats of the state’s 243 or below 10. As the campaign has progressed his words have to be taken seriously and not just dismissed as ‘X’ factor, whatever that would mean.

And in 2022, Kishor the poll strategist, decided to be a political player himself, undertaking padayatras across Bihar for two years before launching his own party on October 2, 2024. His party has been compared to political start-ups like Asom Gana Parishad and Aam Aadmi Party. But Jan Suraaj is different, the former were political fallout of social movements. Here is the instance of a political enterprise set up to take on social and economic causes.

Kishor may not be a product of a movement, but he is born out of a social media and communication revolution impacting our lives. The protests buoyed by social media have toppled governments in Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka in recent years.

Many believe that politics has been de-ideologised today, getting linked only to power that stems from winning elections, which in turn rides on skilful management of poll machinery. Kishor was among those few who first understood this churn in the country.

And, even as a leader now, he has built a party in a remarkably short time, so much so that he has now fielded candidates in 243 constituencies (he has accused the BJP of forcing three of the Jan Suraaj nominees to withdraw). But curiously, just as he was emerging as one of the central figures during the campaign, he pulled back by deciding not to take the plunge himself. What ace he has up his sleeve has to be watched.

He has set the bar high, declaring that “even if I get 125 seats, I would consider it a defeat” and expects voters to put him “ya to arsh par, nahi to farsh par” (Either I’ll be on the throne or on the floor). Bihar’s politics has often rewarded audacious campaign planks, be it Jayaprakash Narayan’s call for Sampoorna Kranti, Lalu Yadav’s attempt to turn the social hierarchies upside down, or Nitish Kumar’s bid to make governance the centrepiece of his campaign at a time when Bihar was showing the signs of a failed state. Whether Prashant Kishor will join that list remains to be seen.

Yet, any careful analysis of the electoral prospects of his Jan Suraaj Party must take into account that as a seasoned election strategist, he has the means and method to amplify his side of the story. Kishor launched his party on October 2, 2024 after a two-year padyatra across the state that started from Gandhi Ashram in West Champaran district. He claims his team has visited over 5,000 villages, engaging with local communities to identify key issues, and has a membership base of 1 crore.

He claims that since there have been no cataclysmic events in Bihar that could propel a new political force to office, his party gains would be fruits of hard political campaign. He appears to be getting slightly more support from upper castes and Muslims than from OBCs and Dalits.

PK’s campaign is mobilising the economic anxieties among the more aspirational segments such as school teachers, professionals, small entrepreneurs, educated youth and migrants. For them, Kishor’s anti-establishment pitch resonates precisely because both the NDA and MGB seem like two factions of the same old order that have dominated state politics for the last 35 years.

A question is often being asked, whose chances will JSP hurt more, the NDA’s or MGB’s? The NDA’s chances could get hurt if the seat-sharing arrangement within the NDA along with the whisper campaign against Nitish Kumar makes JD (U) appear as a party that could be cannibalised. In the end, the real effect of JSP playing a spoiler may largely be driven by the candidate choices parties make.

So even if PK’s gambit succeeds in a modest way, then the 2025 Bihar election may be won or lost in margins. And, in the process, it may shift the grammar of politics in a state where caste loyalty is the only thing that matters in an electoral battle. Much will depend on whether this middle layer of Bihar’s society remains steadfastly committed to PK’s insurgency or their other identities (and factors) become more dominant on polling day.

For Kishor, it’s a test case of whether election management (PR, strategy, data, etc) can substitute for politics (social coalitions, political alliances, charisma etc). His previous avatar as a strategist did not require him to have a clear ideological image. As a politician, he cannot avoid one. PK is no longer just a planner behind the curtain; he now aspires to be a product with a long shelf life.

Despite all the arguments against him and also reservations about his ability to contest, as the campaign has progressed, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj is proving to be tough competitor. Explain this in view of the above mentioned factors.

(The writer is an established Author, Academic and President of the Centre for Reforms, Development & Justice)

‘Cong-Left Have No Pull In Bihar; One Hopes PK Is Not Another Kejriwal’

Dr Satyajit Singh, 75, a physician, social activist & entrepreneur, wishes Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj to change the caste-based politics in Bihar. His views:

Electoral rolls revision (SIR) in Bihar was essential to correct and update voter’s details. Many voters have died, changed their place of residence; many people are registered as voter at more than one place. However, SIR is an example of how right things are done in a wrong way.

First, it was done in great hurry. Second, initially, the documents required were near impossible for many people. Thank goodness, the Supreme Court prevailed and made Aadhar card enough for identity. But it’s also a fact that wrong people get Aadhar cards made in their name.

The Election Commission, in fact most government agencies, are not independent and strong enough to be trusted for being non-partisan in their work. The perception is that they are selective in their investigation, and not necessarily ‘an accused being innocent’.

Rahul Gandhi’s Vote Adhikari Yatra did have huge gatherings, but there is no strong cadre to follow up the momentum. The Mahagathbandhan will be a formidable force against the NDA but Modi and Nitish are more popular in perception. How much of their popularity is converted into votes only the ‘ballot box’ will tell.

The candidates of AIMIM of Owaisi are contesting from all Muslim dominated constituencies where lies the strength of the Mahagathbandhan, particularly RJD. Naturally, they will affect the vote-base of the alliance, especially the RJD.

ALSO READ: ‘Nitish Is Unlikely To Remain Bihar CM After This Election’

Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraaj is the only party which is not based on caste and religion. This party is offering candidates who are educated and professionals, and who have been successful in their life. They are attracting youth in large numbers. This is the only party whose movements have been on since the last few years, as an organisation, and now as a political party; they have a minutely compiled strategy.

When wrong elements are elected, then people argue, that since there no better candidate from any party, so they had to vote based on caste. However, the Jan Suraj Party is giving an alternative of educated and professionals as candidated for the first time in Bihar. How much Prashant Kishore will convert this in term of votes, in a highly polarised elections based on caste and religious bias, is being eagerly awaited.

Offering LJP a large number of seats indicates that Nitish Kumar needs Chirag Paswan for mobilising the EBC voters. His association with BJP has definitely eroded Muslim support. The appeal and strength of most regional parties are based on caste — from south to north India. BJP, despite many good development works to showcase, still uses religious emotions as the main plank of their election strategy.

The weakening of a centrist Congress and the Left has eroded a strong opposition which is necessary for democracy. Sad to see the Congress not letting brighter young politicians to come on the centre-stage! I have nothing against Rahul Gandhi, but he gives the impression, that he is at the top due to family domination.

The Left has lost its constituents of the poor working class vote shifting to caste and family-dominated parties which have no national or international agenda. The Left alone fights on a secularism plank, but it too gives the perception of not being unbiased, as pro-minority and anti-Hindu — which becomes beneficial to BJP in voter-polarisation. It’s sad to see a party built on international revolutionary ethos, standing behind caste and religious combinations — in the third row — making themselves irrelevant in Indian electoral politics.

In a polarised atmosphere, the space for a real, secular, liberal and democratic collective of people is shrinking fast. It is hoped that the Jan Suraj experiment succeeds to bring our democracy out of these narrow narratives, but Arvind Kejriwal’s debacle has also created serious apprehension in people’s mind.

(Dr Singh, having worked and taught in London for several years, returned to Patna in 1996 and established a lithotripsy centre in Bihar-Jharkhand. It has became a 400-bed multi-speciality hospital – Ruban group of hospitals – which specialising in advanced laser and robotic surgery. His vision has been to create institutions of healthcare, and there is a plan to set up a medical college near Patna. Among other things, he is involved with Indian Peoples Theatre Association (IPTA), Patna Literary Festival, and grassroots work in rural areas.

As told to Amit Sengupta

To Ban Or Not To Ban – That Is The Question In Bihar!

Amidst the political buzz of the Bihar Assembly elections, Prashant Kishor, the new factor in the campaign, has promised to lift the alcohol ban. This has gained attention and is being widely discussed among the public, even though politicians remain largely silent about it.

The alcohol prohibition law has been in force in Bihar since 2016. It was a major issue in the 2020 Assembly elections as well. At that time, it was believed that the prohibition benefited Nitish Kumar, especially since women were happy with the decision, which was reflected in the voting patterns. This time too, the ban is being discussed, even though the ruling NDA leaders are avoiding public discussions on the topic.

This begs the question: What is it that the poll strategist in Prashant Kishor sees an opportunity in raking up the matter about scrapping a law which in the past seems to have benefitted the ruling establishment, his rivals in the poll? A close scrutiny would show that the Jan Suraaj Party leader is addressing those who have been affected by the law and those who have benefitted from it, the poor and low caste women.

The complaint about implementation of the law is largely against the police and excise department officials. The enforcement agencies are accused of prosecuting the consumer for illegally marketed alcohol and not the sellers, who are believed to pay heavily to ‘buy the license to sell.’

The general refrain is that an alcohol bottle that was used to be available for ₹200 earlier is now delivered at home ₹500. It is said, and not without reason, that this is the cost for the safe home delivery of liquor. Everyone, it is believed, knows whom to call and what to say to get alcohol delivered directly to their home.

But then, there is the community consisting women across caste, economic class and region, which silently supports it. It should not be forgotten that the whole movement demanding ban on sale and consumption of alcohol was led by a woman of lowly Mushar community from rural Bihar.

While women initially celebrated prohibition, many now see that the law’s implementation has bred corruption and victimized their own families. Thousands of households have seen male members arrested, and families driven further into poverty and hardships. Kishor’s pitch, therefore, is not merely a call to “lift the ban,” but to “end hypocrisy” – to frame prohibition as a failed, exploitative, and class-biased policy.

For the ruling NDA, especially Nitish Kumar, prohibition remains a delicate issue. While women still symbolically support it, its enforcement failures make open discussion politically risky. BJP allies, on the other hand, have privately expressed frustration over the law’s unpopularity in rural areas but maintain silence publicly to avoid alienating women voters.

Despite high degree of criticism (higher than it actually deserves), prohibition continues to enjoy a moral constituency, particularly among rural women. For them, it symbolizes dignity, peace at home, and control over family income. They see it as a measure of social justice and equality, especially in a patriarchal society where women’s voices are often muted.

It is also important to note that alcohol-related abuse, crime, and health issues had reached alarming levels in Bihar before prohibition. Lifting the ban without a robust system of regulated sale and awareness could risk a relapse into that chaos.

The call to scrap prohibition in Bihar touches upon deep questions of morality, governance, and political pragmatism. The law, while borne out of genuine social reform, has degenerated into a system that punishes the poor, enriches the corrupt, and drains state resources. Prashant Kishor’s challenge is therefore not limited only to Nitish Kumar’s policy but to the very idea that symbolic morality can replace effective governance.

Scrapping prohibition outright might be politically risky, but reforming it is both necessary and inevitable. A nuanced, balanced policy – one that respects women’s rights, curbs corruption, and restores economic rationality – would be the truly prudent decision for Bihar’s future.

(The writer is an established Author, Academic and President of the Centre for Reforms, Development & Justice)

Nitish Should Make Tejashwi CM Now: Prashant Kishor

Nitish Should Make Tejashwi CM Now: Prashant Kishor

Political strategist Prashant Kishor, who has been an open critic of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar for some time now, said on Saturday that the Janata Dal (United) leader should not wait till 2025 and make his deputy in the state cabinet, Tejashwi Yadav, the chief minister of Bihar.

Kishor, who is leading his Jan Suraj Padyatra in Bihar, reached Sheohar on the 77th day of the march.
Speaking to media persons here, Kishor said, “Nitish has announced to contest elections under Tejashwi’s leadership. He has accepted the fact that the election cannot be won on his face or by his party JD(U). “

“There is no need to wait till 2025 to elect Tejashwi Yadav as CM. In their alliance, RJD has the biggest share. Nitish Kumar should make him CM. This will give Tejashwi a chance to work for three years and the public will have the opportunity to vote on the basis of his performance,” he added.

So far visiting two districts, Kishor said he found that more than 60 percent of youth have migrated to other states for employment.

Kishor’s remarks came after Chief Minister Nitish Kumar recently said that Tejashwi Yadav will lead the Mahagathbandhan in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections.

“I am saying this from the beginning…He (Tejashwi Yadav) will definitely do it. You understand it right?” said Kumar in front of the media, on giving Tejashwi Yadav leadership for the 2025 Assembly elections in Bihar.

Notably, Tejashwi Yadav is the younger son of Rashtriya Janata Dal’s (RJD) founding president Lalu Prasad.

Nitish Kumar had broken off ties with BJP in August this year and taken oath again as Bihar Chief Minister after rejoining hands with Rashtriya Janata Dal and other parties in the Mahagathbandhan.

Kishor said some people think that Nitish Kumar is working towards a big alliance against the BJP at the Centre but “this is not very credible”. He said of the 17 years that Nitish Kumar has been chief minister, he has held the post with the support of the BJP for 14 years.

Both Nitish Kumar and Prashant Kishor have taken potshots at each other in the recent past.

Kishor, who had joined the JD-U and was a national vice president, had been expelled by the party in January 2020 for “acting against the party’s decisions”.

Kishor had earlier this month hit out at Nitish Kumar over his remarks that he was “working for the BJP” and said the Chief Minister had become “delusional”.

“He (Kumar) has been affected by his age and has turned delusional. He has been politically isolated as he is surrounded by people who he himself does not trust. And it is because of this nervousness he speaks rather than what he means,” Kishor had said. (ANI)

Read more: http://13.232.95.176/

‘He Is Delusional…Kishor On Nitish’s Comment

Hitting back at Nitish Kumar, political strategist Prashant Kishor said on Sunday that the Bihar chief minister has become “delusional” and “politically isolated” and thus speaks things other than what he actually means.

He also said that Kumar’s age is affecting him and it reflects in his “nervousness”.
Kishor was reacting to the chief minister’s comment that the political strategist, who has recently launched a state-wide ‘padayatra’ to bring ‘Jan Suraj’ in Bihar, was “working for the BJP” after he claimed that Kumar had asked him to join his Janata Dal (United) party.

“He (Kumar) said I am working on BJP’s agenda and asked him to merge with Congress. How is it even possible? If I were supporting BJP, why would I ask him to strengthen Congress? If the second claim is correct, the first one gets wrong,” Kishor told ANI.

“He (Kumar) has been affected by his age and has turned delusional. He has been politically isolated as he is surrounded by people who he himself does not trust. And it is because of this nervousness he speaks other than what he means,” he added.

Of late, both Kishor and Kumar have shared allegations against each other.

On Saturday, the Bihar chief minister said Kishor, who has helped political parties win elections and influence people, is now making baseless claims. He added that a few years ago Kishor had advised him to merge his JD (U) with the Congress. On October 5, Kishor had said Kumar had invited him to his residence and offered him to join his party and lead it.

But Kishor has dropped enough hints that he aims to launch his own political party after the completion of his yatra. He has often said it was time for him “to go directly to the people.”

Kishor launched his ‘padayatra’ on October 2 from Bhitiharwa Gandhi Ashram. He has attacked all political parties that have ruled Bihar, saying the state has not changed since 1990. He said people here are bound to migrate to other states in search of employment.

Kishor has briefly served as the national president of the JD (U) but was later expelled from the party.

In an interview with ANI last month, the strategist had predicted that the current ruling alliance of seven parties (Mahagathbandhan) will not survive till the next assembly election.

In August, Nitish Kumar parted ways with the NDA and rejoined the RJD. (ANI)

Read More:http://13.232.95.176/

Nuts & Bolts of Mamata’s Not-So-Nutty Plan For Goa

When the assembly elections in the tiny Indian state of Goa (population: 1.60 million) are held in February 2022, a prominent contestant for a slice of the 40 seats in the state will be Ms. Mamata Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress (AITMC). The “All India” part of her party’s name could seem a bit of a misnomer because, at least in terms of the number of seats that the party has won in states other than West Bengal in recent years. It is predominantly a regional political party from West Bengal where Ms. Banerjee has served two consecutive terms as chief minister and is currently serving her third.

But could that change? Ms. Banerjee’s ambition of spreading her political domain to regions other than Bengal is not new. In the past, her party has contested assembly elections in other states: in 2001, in Assam her party won a seat; in Manipur, in 2012, she won seven; in the same year, in Uttar Pradesh, she won one seat, and in Tripura, in 2016, she managed to get six Congress legislators to defect to her party. But her party’s faring has been patchy. In Manipur, where she had seven, she lost six seats in the 2017 elections and has just one now. In Punjab, in 2017, she fielded 20 candidates but none of them won.

Tripura, Manipur, and parts of Assam (particularly in the south where Bengali speaking population is considerably large) are actually low-hanging fruit for Ms. Banerjee. Tripura and Manipur are small and not too distant from her home base and with the right kind of alliances, she could make inroads in those states. But these moves have at best been relatively small ones and not part of a bigger plan to spread the AITMC’s wings.

Till now. Enter Abhishek Banerjee, her 34-year-old nephew and MP, who was appointed as the party’s national general secretary this summer. Banerjee’s rise within the party that his aunt leads has been phenomenal. He has also been in the eye of several unseemly controversies, including having ongoing charges against him in cases of money laundering and disproportionate assets.  But it is Abhishek who is driving Mamata’s party’s national strategy to spread its presence outside West Bengal.

That strategy, as it begins to unfold, is about AITMC venturing out of its comfort zone in West Bengal and its smaller neighbouring states and taking a shy at fresh challenges. And the tactics that make up that strategy seem to be varied. Recently, Abhishek convinced Mamata to get on board Sushmita Dev, the daughter of the late Congress leader Santosh Mohan Dev, who was a veteran politician from Assam and Tripura and Union minister for many years. It was a sort of a coup that could give the AITMC a bigger foothold in, at least, a part of southern Assam.

The reason behind the national strategy is simple. With a broader footprint across India, the AITMC could shed its Bengal-centricity but it could also give Mamata Banerjee the credibility and a raison d’etre for pitching herself as a challenger and alternative to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a notion that has often been raised, particularly after her party’s victory for the third time in West Bengal.

ALSO READ: Mamata In A New Challenger Avatar

The tactic of going to Goa to fight the 2022 elections has an interesting background. Let’s begin with political strategist Prashant Kishor. No other electoral strategist in India is as famous as Kishor has been. He has worked for parties of every stripe: from national parties such as the BJP and the Congress; and for regional parties such as Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party in Andhra Pradesh, the DMK in Tamil Nadu, AAP in Delhi, and now the AITMC. Kishor is not only AITMC’s strategic consultant but, it is learnt, that he has a five-year contract with the party, an arrangement of that kind that has not been common in India.

What is more, Kishor is the main brain behind the Goa foray by Mamata. If Abhishek is the driver, Kishor is the navigator. Kishor did a detailed survey of the electoral situation and mood in Goa’s 40 assembly constituencies and came back with the findings that the voters of Goa (where the BJP leads the government although it won 13 seats to Congress’s 17 in 2017) are not happy with either of the two central parties. Although the BJP upstaged the Congress in the 2017 elections because it was faster in forging alliances than the latter and proved a majority in the assembly, thereby forming the government, it is not invincible as it had been before. The death of Manohar Parrikar (who was BJP’s chief minister for three terms before he died in 2017) has dealt a blow to BJP’s clout in Goa. The party’s current chief minister Pramod Sawant has neither the charisma nor the political clout that Parrikar, who was also defence minister in Delhi in the first BJP government, enjoyed.

As for the Congress, in Goa, as in many other states, it is rudderless and lacks vision. In the 2017 elections it had the largest number of seats but it dithered about finding partners to make up the majority and ended up handing over the government formation to the BJP.

The AITMC intends to leverage this situation by adopting quick tactics. Thirty percent of the population of Goa is made up of Christians (mainly Roman Catholics) and the AITMC has adroitly picked up a leading politician, Luizinho Faleiro, a former Congress leader and ex-chief minister of the state. Faleiro joined the AITMC in September this year. It’s a political win for Mamata Banerjee because Faleiro, besides having political clout in his own state, has been an alliance strategist for the Congress and is credited with forging alliances for his old party in many north-eat Indian states to help the party form governments.

Besides moves such as that, the AITMC has inducted the former tennis champion, Leander Paes, who is now settled in Goa; the socialite Nafisa Ali has also joined the party; and both personalities would likely be visible during the party’s public campaigning in Goa. But Goa also has a sizeable Hindu population (estimated 66%), a base on which the BJP built its support and for AITMC to succeed, it would need to target those voters as well.

To do that, Mamata and her party have been reaching out to smaller parties with a focused following in the state. One of the targets for an alliance is the Goa Forward Party, which has three of the 40 assembly seats and quit its alliance with the ruling BJP, accusing the latter of giving away Goa’s mining resources to the private sector.

Whatever be the outcome of Mamata and her nephew’s electoral strategy in Goa, it has already caused both national parties to be concerned–the Congress more than the BJP. Directionless with a leadership that does not seem to translate into votes, the Congress is particularly concerned that the AITMC is weaning away some of its own leaders at a time when that commodity, political leadership, is a scarcity in the Congress. But one thing is clear. Thanks to Mamata’s moves, the fight for Goa will be watched intently.