Tag: Assembly Elections 2023

Chidambaram The Psephologist

Chidambaram The Psephologist

By Kunal Bose

What makes a Palaniappan Chidambaram! An extraordinary scholar with an MBA from Harvard Business School, incredibly proficient both in English and Tamil. Among the country’s best legal brains, Chidambaram is heard with respect when he will be arguing a case in the Supreme Court. A politician who held finance, home, law and commerce and industry portfolios under the previous political dispensation with competence. Now an MP in the Rajya Sabha, Chidambaram would keep the house enthralled when he participates in its proceedings in clipped tones in English, which is a fast vanishing trait among Indian politicians. But he had a brush with law enforcement agencies raiding his houses in different cities leading to his incarceration in 2019.

Well ahead of that, his qualities led The Economist ahead of 2014 Indian parliamentary elections to say in a long article that Chidambaram would be an ideal candidate for the office of the Prime Minister after the scholarly Dr Manmohan Singh. For, where is another in the country who could match, if not tower over leaders from any other nation in learning, vision and presentation capacity. The globally respected magazine was fascinated by his command over the English language. Not that there will not be any number of Indians who will remain dismissive of The Economist estimate of the ageing but still a robust politician.

In any case, the performance of United Progressive Alliance, a Centre-Left alliance led by the Congress, was so dismal both in 2014 and 2019 general elections that the once largest all-India political party was consigned into hibernation. Post Covid pandemic, which claimed thousands of lives and left many jobless when BJP was running the government at the centre, Congress thinks the time is right for it to improve its fortunes.

Forget what The Economist had to say about Chidambaram. But here our reference point is his highly readable weekly column ‘Across the Aisle’ in the Sunday edition of Indian Express, a newspaper to have retained its sanity. The column is what succinctness is all about. His universe is large. But in the column his focus is on politics and economy of this country. There will be occasions when he will dip his pen in poison. Critical he is, but with malice towards none.

Chidambaram is not in the business of making forecast of what will be the outcome of elections to be held in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana and Mizoram. He and his son Karti (a Congress MP from Sivaganga in Tamil Nadu) have strong party affiliations. But when the senior Chidambaram is donning the cap of a newspaper columnist, he is acutely aware that he cannot be blatantly partisan. No denying, however, his sympathies and loyalty to the party will have some bearing on his writing.

ALSO READ: ‘Brand Modi May Not Work In Assembly Elections’

He makes no claims to be a pollster. Even then Chidambaram is always interesting, for he has the capacity to see things which others will generally miss out. First, he disagrees with the analysts saying that the forthcoming elections in five states will put NDA and the recently formed alliance INDIA to a test of strength.

According to him, the contest will be between BJP and Congress. Except for the fact that BJP lost 2018 elections in all the states now to go to the polls. That BJP is in power is because of defections with a frustrated Jyotiraditya Scindia denied chief ministership walking over to the BJP. Chidambaram will argue that desertion of JD(U), Shiv Sena, Akali Dal and AIADMK has virtually extinguished NDA, even though on paper 34 other parties, which hardly anyone will know except for their promoters, are part of the alliance. This makes him say: “The NDA is simply another name for BJP.”

Even while some INDIA constituents like Samajwadi Party are fielding candidates here and there are some verbal duels between Akhilesh Yadav and Kamal Nath, these are not signs of the newly formed alliance coming apart. Poll forecasting is highly seductive. At the same time, it’s a slippery business to read the mind of voters. Having the ability to govern himself by the use of reason at all times, Chidambaram says: “I do not wish to make any predictions.” At the same time, he is not to shy away from making “a cautious preliminary assessment” of elections outcome based on available information and reports.

Here we give a quick run-through of what Chidambaram thinks will be post-poll scene in three of the five states, Telangana and Mizoram having dominance of regional parties. The discredited Raman Singh having ruled Chhattisgarh for as many as 15 years till 2018, the present chief minister Bhupesh Baghel is unlikely to face anti-incumbency issue. According to Chidambaram, welfare scheme showing results on the ground, shift of power to the tribals and OBCs and improving levels of prosperity of farmers, particularly rice cultivators should help the Congress in retaining power. “Privately, even the BJP does not challenge this conclusion,” says Chidambaram.

As for Madhya Pradesh, expectedly, the Congress led by Kamal Nath will not miss an opportunity to remind voters of defections engineered by BJP to unseat the elected Congress government. And Scindia has not gained in popularity by leaving the Congress to become a minister in BJP government. Moreover, the ghost of Vyapam (Vyavsayik Pariksha Mandal) scam involving rigging of results for selection of medical students and state government employees for money remains a permanent feature of the state’s political discourse to BJP’s discomfiture.

Uncertainty about the future of incumbent chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and BJP not naming anybody as chief ministerial candidate but instead fielding seven sitting Lok Sabha MPs, including three Union ministers are working to the advantage of Congress. BJP leadership seems to be a prisoner of confusion as far as Madhya Pradesh goes. The BJP indecision about state leadership, according to Chidambaram “has lit the fire of ambition in too many hearts, including serving Union ministers… Indications are that the bell has tolled for a change.”

The two-time chief minister of Rajasthan and the only woman to hold that office Vasundhara Raje may not again have been projected as CM face. Narendra Modi saying at one of his election rallies in Rajasthan that the party’s face this time would be its ‘lotus’ symbol must have upset Raje to no end. After all, besides being a BJP national vice-president, she has over the years strengthened the party in Rajasthan where Congress is traditionally a force to reckon with. Some high-ups in the party might have reservations about Raje. But she wields enough clout in the state not to be easily sidelined.

After all the wrong noises, Raje filed her nomination papers for Jhalrapatan Assembly constituency, which returned her to the Assembly four times since 2003. Not only that, many of her confidants are in the election fray. All that goes to show that Raje has a standing in Rajasthan independent of BJP. Interestingly Raje has rubbished all the talks about her retirement from active politics. Announcing that she was giving herself another five years in politics, Raje said, “I have just filed my nomination, Jhalwar is my family… Don’t entertain any thoughts of my retirement anytime soon.” Who knows, if BJP manages to outsmart Congress in spite of all its welfare schemes, Raje may stake a claim to CM office.

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Brand Modi In Assembly Elections

‘Brand Modi May Not Work In Upcoming Assembly Elections’

By LokMarg

Kamal Bhargava, a lawyer and political observer, says election results of five state assemblies will have little bearing on the Lok Sabha elections in 2024. His views:

It can be said that the Lok Sabha polls in 2024 will decide the direction of the country for the next many years. To some extent, it is believed that assembly elections are the gateway to the parliamentary elections, even though issues in the parliamentary and assembly elections are altogether different. Hence, the outcome in five states where elections are on the cards will surely set both the mood and the tone for the general elections.

The opposition today claims that BJP may face defeat in the 2024 polls as its popularity is going down in several states. However, there have been instances when the party in governance at the Centre got defeated in state elections but performed well in parliamentary election thereafter. With the country on the verge of 2024 Lok Sabha elections, political parties are leaving no stone unturned in claiming their stake in forming the next government.

After two terms, the Modi-led Bhartiya Janta Party is trying their level best for a hat trick, with Modi eyeing to level the record of former Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru. Meanwhile the Opposition is busy in forming an alliance I.N.D.I.A. to keep BJP in abeyance.

While completing nine years in office, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had via a tweet “to keep working even harder”. This could be a growing worry in the BJP for the 2024 general election as one could once again sense “total dependence” on Brand Modi that might not work in forthcoming state polls. Many a time, even Modi has advised its present MPs to depend more on their individual work rather then repeatedly relying on ‘Brand Modi’.

ALSO READ: ‘Assembly Elections Do Not Augur Well For BJP’

But here what matters is, issues like unemployment, price rise, communal disharmony, and steps for the welfare of women and farmers. And to some extent the opposition is trying to catch up with these issues too. One fear of the ruling party pertains to using government machinery like CBI and ED in getting political personalities behind bars.

Modi is known for bold and indifferent decisions. Be it Triple Talaq, repealing of Article 370, One nation, one Election, Women Empowerment Bill — he knows the pulse of a common man. He has taken the country and its politics to a different level having one of the largest fan following across the globe. By the time the opposition thinks of countering the government, something new and different is already on the floor. BJP has been working on different notes. But when it comes to development no doubt one can count on different aspects. Be it the new laws, repealing the age-old ones or construction of highways, connectivity, law and order, etc. For the people of North, the biggest gift one could get is the road and rail connectivity. Reaching NCR in just one hour was a dream. But BJP made it possible.

The saffron party is still in a strong position with regard to the 2024 general elections. At any point of time, BJP’s biggest strength is its organizational strength and management. Its minutest and both micro and macro planning gives it an edge over other political parties. For the opposition, it is an uphill battle at all levels. None stands to his stature. But to some extent one can see signs of a quiet worry setting in, in the BJP with I.N.D.I.A. struggling hard for a comeback.

As told to Deepa Gupta

For more details visit us: https://lokmarg.com/

Whatever Happens in Five Assembly Elections, Modi Could Still Get a Third Term

By Sanjoy Narayan

“It’s the semi-finals,” says a journalist friend in Delhi. We were chatting on the phone about next month’s assembly elections in which five Indian states, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram will go to the polls. The sports reference relates to the big finals, next year’s parliamentary elections, due in May and in which more than 900 million Indians will cast their votes to elect a new government for India and in which the Narendra Modi-led regime in power would be keen to win a third term.

Many in India believe Modi and his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), would likely sweep the parliamentary polls again. Still, much could depend on how the next round of assembly elections pan out.

The BJP, on its own, or as a dominant partner, or in alliance with other parties, rules in 15 states and one Union Territory (India has 28 states and eight UTs). And while Modi and his party have for long pursued a mission of trying to win in as many states in the country, and for a while it seemed like that ambition would come true, in recent assembly elections, they have not fared exceedingly well. Notably, in May this year, when elections were held in the southern state of Karnataka, it was the Congress that won it with a landslide victory by getting 135 of the 224 seats and recording its biggest win since 1989.

In fact, the outcomes of assembly elections that were held in the past two years have been mixed for the BJP. To be sure, it did win some of these. In Goa, in May 2022, it retained power by winning 27 of the 40 seats; in the trouble-torn northeastern state of Manipur, in March last year it won a second term; in Uttarakhand too it became the first party to be re-elected when the state elections were held in March 2022; in the most populous state (and one of the most electorally important ones) of Uttar Pradesh, it retained power for the second time led by chief minister Yogi Adityanath who is perceived as a hardline Hindu nationalist but has also proved to be popular and successful; and in Gujarat, which is Modi’s home state, the BJP won again and has now been in power for 28 years.

Besides Karnataka, there have been other setbacks as well for the BJP. In Punjab last year, for instance, it was the Aam Aadmi Party, which swept the polls defeating all three, BJP, Congress, and the Akali Dal. In Himachal Pradesh, in November 2022, it was ousted by the Congress, which came back to power after losing its majority in 2017. Also, in the southern states, with the exception of Karnataka, where the BJP has managed to form governments in the past, the party’s spread has been insignificant.

In India, elections, besides being held on a humongous scale, are complex and the outcomes depend on myriad factors. Incumbent governments often face the wrath of disappointed voters; castes and communal conflicts play a decisive role; and, particularly in the states, local issues dominate. Indian voters often vote differently in state elections from what they do in the parliamentary elections. The Modi-led regime, for instance, won 282 of the 543 parliamentary seats in 2014 when it came to power, and did even better in 2019 when it got reelected by winning 303 seats.

My friend, the Delhi journalist who calls next month’s state elections the semi-finals, reminded me about how Modi’s draw among Indian voters has not shown signs of weakening. His impressive personality (of being a strong leader who eclipses all of his opponents) and his government’s achievements appeal to people and these factors could decide who wins the finals when parliamentary elections are held next May. Yet, what happens in the five states that go to the polls next month could also have a bearing on whom voters would choose then. So, what could be the likely outcomes of these five state elections?

In the large central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh, it is the BJP that now rules. Led by chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the BJP has been in power there for four terms. However, things are not simple for it. The last assembly elections in the state were actually won by the Congress but that government collapsed in 2020 after 22 Congress legislators who were loyal to the erstwhile Congress leader, Jyotiraditya Scindia, resigned when he jumped ship and joined the BJP. This reduced the strength of the Congress from 114 to 92 in the 230-member assembly, while the BJP had 107 MLAs. The BJP then staked claim to form the government with the support of other parties. So its tenure has been tenuous.

Chouhan could face significant anti-incumbency headwinds in next month’s elections. Also, under Kamal Nath, a veteran party leader, now 76, the Congress has been consolidating its base in the state and many believe the party could pose a big challenge to the BJP. And although Chouhan is popular and influential in the state and is known for his welfare schemes and development initiatives, especially for farmers and backward classes, his party’s central leadership in Delhi often doesn’t see eye to eye with him. These are factors that could jeopardise a BJP victory in the state.

In Rajasthan, the situation is equally complex. The state’s Congress chief minister is Ashok Gehlot who has been in office since late 2018, after leading his party to victory in the state election. In the early part of his regime, his then deputy chief minister, the Congress leader Sachin Pilot, and Gehlot had a falling out with the former rebelling over issues of power-sharing and governance. Pilot was removed from his post and the party’s future in the state was under a shadow. However, since then the two have reconciled. On the other hand, it is the BJP in Rajasthan that is in an unstable state because the party faces several challenges and uncertainties ahead of the 2023 assembly elections.

One of the factors is the role played by BJP leader Vasundhara Raje, a former chief minister and the most prominent leader of the BJP in Rajasthan. She has been sidelined by her party’s high command and has not been projected as the chief ministerial candidate. She has also been in conflict with some of the central leaders, such as Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, who is seen as a rival to her in the state. Many of her supporters have been denied party tickets, and she has not been actively involved in the election campaign so far. This could queer the pitch for the party in the coming elections.

There is also an anti-incumbency factor against the BJP. Although it is not in power in the state now, it has ruled Rajasthan for 28 years since 1995 before the current Congress came to power in 2018 and it has faced criticism for its poor management of the Covid-19 pandemic, rising unemployment, high inflation, low economic growth and rampant crime. The party has also failed to address the issues of farmers, backward classes, women and minorities. That and the fact that Raje could divide the BJP vote could be factors that could go against the party and favour the Congress.

In Telangana, a state that was formed in 2014 after a long and intense movement for a separate statehood from Andhra Pradesh, neither the BJP nor the Congress have any significant possibility of gaining ground. The ruling regional party, Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), has dissolved the assembly and called for early polls, hoping to cash in on its popularity and avoid any anti-incumbency. The TRS is confident of retaining power on the basis of its welfare schemes and development initiatives, especially for farmers and backward classes. The main opposition is the Congress-led alliance, which includes the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), the Communist Party of India (CPI) and the Telangana Jana Samithi (TJS). The alliance is challenging the TRS on the issues of unemployment, corruption and family rule. The BJP is also trying to increase its presence in the state, where it won only five seats in 2014. But some opinion polls have given a comfortable majority to the TRS, while others have suggested a tight race.

In the northeastern state of Mizoram the Mizo National Front (MNF), which is a regional party that follows the Mizo nationalist ideology, is in power with the party’s leader Zoramthanga as the chief minister. The MNF won 26 seats out of 40 in 2018. While the Congress has a bigger presence than the BJP in the state, recent inter-tribe violence and conflicts in another northeastern state, Manipur, could influence which way Mizo voters would swing. There could be mistrust and lack of faith in central parties such as the Congress and BJP and that could go in favour of regional parties such as the MNF.

In Chhattisgarh, another central Indian state, the Congress came to power in 2018, after winning 68 out of 90 seats by ousting the BJP, which got only 15 seats. The current chief minister of Chhattisgarh, Bhupesh Baghel, is expected to lead his party to another victory in the state over the BJP.

So, let us suppose the BJP fares badly in next month’s elections. Say, it loses in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chattisgarh, and fails to make any significant inroads in Telangana and Mizoram, what would that mean for Modi when he braces up for the parliamentary elections in May? Would the semi-finals have a bearing on the finals?

There are many who go by the logic that Indians vote differently in their state elections where local issues dominate and differently at the central level where it is Modi’s personality, image, and the confidence he exudes that will matter (in most opinion polls he emerges as by far the strongest Indian political leader).

The other thing is what has become known as the TINA (or There is No Alternative) factor. Coined in the 19th century by the classical liberal thinker and Darwinist Herbert Spencer, the phrase is associated with the policies and persona of the Conservative British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Thatcher used this phrase in a speech to the Conservative Women’s Conference on May 21, 1980, where she appealed to the notion saying, “We have to get our production and our earnings into balance. There’s no easy popularity in what we are proposing but it is fundamentally sound. Yet I believe people accept there’s no real alternative.”

While the phrase is often used in political and financial contexts to justify decisions, in the Indian political context it could be interpreted as there being no alternative to Modi when it comes to the parliamentary elections.

The Modi government has been in power for nine years. During this time, it has introduced some long-awaited reforms in the country. Some of its achievements include the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC), and the Swachh Bharat campaign. The Indian economy has witnessed an impressive rise, and India is now the fifth largest economy in terms of GDP. However, the Modi government faces a plethora of challenges such as unemployment, inequality, farmer distress, and rising inflation. There has also been an increase in communal tensions, especially between the majority comprising Hindus (80% of the population) and Muslims (a bit less than 15%).

Yet, there is no obvious alternative to him. The alliance of 26 Opposition parties, fashioned under the acronym, I.N.D.I.A., which also includes the Congress, intends to fight the BJP in the parliamentary elections as a united front but is itself riddled with rivalries, differences, and lack of consensus. More importantly, it does not have a personality that it could project to take on Modi. Will what happens in the semi-finals affect what happens in the finals? Probably not.

‘Upcoming Assembly Polls Do Not Augur Well For BJP’

By LokMarg

Ramsharan Joshi, a seasoned journalist, author and academic, says the NDA is on a shaky wicket in Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh and Telengana

Vasundhara Raje Scindia is the only popular face of the BJP in Rajasthan. She has been a chief minister twice. And she commands the loyalty of 30 to 40 MLAs who are totally committed to her. No one can easily replace her despite the best efforts of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah.

In recent times, she has been challenging the central leadership of the BJP. She has never succumbed to the pressure of either Modi or Shah. This proves that she has a sizeable  following in her state.

She has been sidelined since long by the new dispensation in the party. I am told that Modi does not even mention her name in the rallies, even in her presence. As is the case in Madhya Pradesh, with Shivraj Singh Chauhan. There have been reports that Shah did not even look at her when she went to welcome him in the airport. Now, Shivraj is asserting himself, claiming that he will be the next chief minister, when it is well-known that he is simply not the first choice anymore in a state ridden with anti-incumbency.

For the first time perhaps, the BJP in Rajasthan is badly faction-ridden. There are groups within groups. Clearly, the party is feeling jittery, and so is the top brass in Delhi. One of the faction leaders has been sent to Assam as a governor to stop the inside-struggles for power.

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I vividly remember the BJP leading from the front with Bhairon Singh Shekhawat as its unilateral and popular leader. I have never seen such dissidence within the party in the past.

Recently, reportedly, a meeting was arranged between various factions. Shah and JP Nadda had to go there. Nothing could be resolved in this acrimonious atmosphere with all factions sticking to their guns, including Vasundhara. It apparently went on for eight hours or so. Finally, a disappointed and unhappy Shah and Nadda had to fly back to
Delhi in the wee hours at 3 am.

This reflects that the BJP in Rajasthan is not exactly toeing the line of Modi and Shah. Indeed, minus Vasundhara, the party has no chance to make it in the coming assembly polls. Undoubtedly, she will play her game.

My sources in Jaipur tell me that she might be demanding 30 to 40 seats for her committed followers. Or, she might even choose to leave the party – that is, if her wish is not granted to her.

Both, in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, MPs and central ministers are being pitched as candidates in small MLA constituencies. If this is not a reflection of their desperation, then what is this? According to sources, Speaker Om Birla is being pitched as one of the next chief ministerial candidates. The problem is that even in his own constituency of Kota, he does not command a mass following!

Shivraj Singh Chauhan has been a CM for almost two decades. Besides, he is an OBC leader. The BJP is trying to get rid of old war horses. Raman Singh seems to have disappeared in Chhattisgarh!

In a recent rally Shivraj Singh Chauhan seems to have openly challenged Modi. He is fondly called ‘Mama’ in MP. He declared, “Will Mama form the next government?” The audience shouted, Yes! This seems to be becoming his rallying point in the campaign. 

The Congress has a clear edge in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, given the current mood and scenario in these states. Their share of seats might come down. It might be tight in Rajasthan, but given the factions in the BJP, the Congress has an advantage. Besides, Ashok Gehlot is himself an OBC – a Maali. And, now, he too has declared a caste survey – so the religious polarization card will simply not work!

In Telengana, the latest opinion poll gives 44 per cent to the Congress and only 32 per cent to BRS. With several leaders ditching the ruling party here and joining the Congress, it seems a sticky wicket for KCR. The BJP is down below in the graph, as it is now in entire South of India. Even the AIADMK has left them in Tamil Nadu. The BJP seems to be bereft of any effective ally all over India.

Finally, the results of the assembly polls will seriously impact the chances of the BJP in 2024. The theory that polling patterns in the assembly and Lok Sabha polls are different is not always true. Especially, when it is the one-dimensional personality of Modi, which is being pitched as the only and ultimate leader — even in local and regional polls.

(The narrator has worked across the Hindi heartland and travelled across the world on reporting assignments. His books include Yaadon ka Laal Galiyara: Dantewada, Pratibimban: Vyakti, Vichaar aur Samaaj, Aadmi, Bel aur Sapne, Apno ke Paas, Apno se Door, Navudarvaad ke Daur Mein, among others. The translated version of his latest book, his autobiography, The Bonsai of my Time, was released in Delhi early this year.)

As told to Amit Sengupta